Maikel Franco hit 2 HR and a 2B, (just a single short of The Big Wheel), and drove in 7 runs. SEVEN. If you’re curious, that’s a lot. Also for Clearwater, Aaron Altherr hit one out also, plus a double, a fine line from Hoby Milner, (1R, 3H, 1BB and 5K in 5IP), Kelly Dugan made his season debut, and Kyrell Hudson returned from XST.
Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20130426
Phuture Phillies 
Reading roster is depressing as hell.
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Right. Just like Lakewood’s
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Yeah, for a home game no less. I hope nobody went out to that game hoping to see some prospects.
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Gillies looks like a complete lost cause.
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What is with the Gillies hate on this site? He’s got a BABIP of .184. His plate discipline’s been great. Stop jumping to conclusions, he’ll be fine.
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He’s not the most likeable human being on the planet, that might be part of it. His performance and injury history might be the other part.
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Have you met Gillies? Do you know the man’s motivations or anything about him personally? If you don’t, then stop making judgments about him as a human being and stick to judging his performance.
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Yes, I have.
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Sometimes BABIP is really low simply due to weak contact, not bad luck.
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Nik, do you ever have anything positive to say about anything? To make your statements based on one game is not rational and Reading actually has a winning record this year.
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Personally I like the bicycle rather than the big wheel… nonetheless I am glad at least one top 10 prospect is performing to standards
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Three. Morgan and Biddle are both top ten, and both have been great (Morgan’s last start was human, but not particularly bad). Asche is also back up to expected standards if you’re going by the Readers’ top 10.
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Many of the top ten are ‘performing to standards’. Biddle, Morgan, Franco and Asche doing well. Shane Watson, who was a top 10 on many lists, is doing fine. Pettibone is in the majors, and pitched well in his debut.
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Well, in a farm system mostly devoid of positional talent, there are at least a few rays of hope:
– Trying to keep my expectations in check for Franco, but it’s getting harder to do so. Hard not to get a little excited about his start in 2013.
– Altherr needs to show a lot more, but there is at least some cause for optimism.
– While his upside may be limited, Ashe has progressed through the system rapidly and looks to have a decent hit tool, a skill sorely lacking in the organization.
– Herdandez has Ben Revere-like power, but even a singles hitter who plays good defense at 2B has some value.
– Mitch Walding at least holding his own so far.
For non-pitchers, that’s all the rays of hope I can think of right now.
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“His [Asche] upside may be limited” – I see this reference on this site from time to time and it’s presumptuous to say the least. The kid is 22 (23 in a few months) and will naturally add strength as he continues to fill out the next few years. Add in a strength building program and who knows what we’ll have in 2 or 3 years.
For comparison, below are the age 22 seasons, both at Clearwater, for Asche and another current Phillie.
?????: .257 / .324 / .422 / .746
Asche : .349 / .378 / .447 / .825
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But even in the line you present, it shows a minuscule ISO of 0.98 and a below average BB% for Asche and the other player (I’m assuming Utley) has a .165 ISO and good BB%.
The 2nd player has the better predictive numbers.
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FWIW, Asche’s ISO more than doubled to .213 in just as many ABs once he was promoted to REA last season. Personally, I’d be just fine with a guy who hits a lot of doubles with the occasional HR.
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Fair point with the Clearwater numbers but move to Reading (same season for Asche) and his BB rate is nearly identical to Utley’s and barely below league average. This year albeit in a limited sample, Asche’s BB rate has increase above 8% – right in line with league average for a guy who was playing rookie ball two years ago.
Though I wouldn’t contend that Asche and Utley put up similar power number to begin with. Utley seems to be the clear standout there
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It isn’t that he won’t get stronger or hit the ball harder, the swing has almost no loft. He might hit 10-15 HRs a year because he will hit line drives very hard. He will have a good line drive fueled, BABIP and pile up large 2B totals. Utley at the time he came up had one of the best swings in baseball, it was incredibly quick to the ball and it is mostly line drive but he can get some loft to it.
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Matt, what you say is correct. I’ve watched Asche swing a lot and it does have very little loft. But I think that’s the sort of thing that he can work on with a good hitting coach. If he’s banging long line drive into the alley, he might work on loading up a bit better and adding some loft to the swing over time. Yes, he’ll never have a home run hitters swing (nor should he), but guys like George Brett, who had line drive swings, learn to pick and choose their spots and get some loft. For now, however, Asche should just focus on doing what got him this far.
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I completely agree on the last point. For people who take offense when they here his “upside is limited” for most of us that is he is a solid regular third baseman not a star. That is incredible for where he was picked and how his career began. Asche will have a good major league career. He is not the prospect Franco is but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a very solid player.
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Matt – do you get your feelings hurt when peeps don’t agree with you? Probably not, right? Good – you can also safely assume that I don’t get my feelings hurt either, nor do I get ‘offended’ when peeps disagree with me. It’s just a difference of opinion – not the end of the world
Truth is, I don’t have a clue what Asche will turn into, nor do you. Listen, I understand the difference between an Asche as a prospect and an Oscar Taveras for instance. They aren’t the same level of prospect. I get it. But ‘upside’ is impossible to measure – particularly for a player who has raked at the rate that Ashe has the past 10 months. Particularly after he looked lost in rookie ball only a year earlier. With the small data sample and a sharp contrast between Asche’s first pro seasons, I find him to be something of an enigma and very difficult to predict. Saying he has ‘limited upside’ is not necessarily going out on a limb though; quite generic actually.
And I must for a moment pick on one of your comments. “Utley at the time he came up had one of the best swings in baseball” – No, no, no. Not true. Not sure where you were (or how old you were) in 2004-2005, but Utley would have never been described at the time as having one of the best swings in baseball or even one of the better swings in baseball or even one of the better swings in the then list of Top prospects. Your statement discredits the Asche / Utley comparison, sure, but its also inaccurate. In fact, prior to 2005 there was quite the debate among Phillie Phans as to whether Utley was even good enough to unseat Polanco – and most we’re favoring Polanco at the time. Not to mention that Utley had over 1000 PAs at AAA before finally unseating Polanco at his Age-26 season. Next you’re going to tell me that you had Utley pegged as a perennial MVP candidate all along
It’s too early to discount anything with re to Asche. He might be a miserable flop who gets no more than a cup of coffee. He might develop 20 HR power (forget his ‘loft’ – it’s one of the easiest and least disruptive things to adjust). He’s an enigma. I’m puzzled
Again, the age-22 Clearwater line:
Utley: .257 / .324 / .422 / .746
Asche : .349 / .378 / .447 / .825
it took months for the populus to one of the best swings in baseball
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Steve, I sincerely agree. We often look retrospectively and with that wonderful benefit of hindsight and make statements like came into league with a top ten swing in baseball.
That said, I tend to think if there is a line drive swing and good contact rate early in a career, a player can grow into power.
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TIS, I couldn’t have said it better myself. Wish I chose your words
“We often look retrospectively and with that wonderful benefit of hindsight and make statements like came into league with a top ten swing in baseball.”
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Why do we need to do this? Frankly, for me this has the opposite effect as intended – instead of adding to the appreciation of a prospect who I really like a lot, it detracts from it. It’s sort of like … I don’t know, talking about how a really smart high school kid is going to be the next Einstein because his performance as a high school math student was similar. That wouldn’t be a compliment, it would be embarrassing.
And, while I share Matt’s conclusions, even he misses the main point. The main reason why the comp is stupid is because Utley’s season WASN’T PREDICTIVE OF HIS PERFORMANCE AS A MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYER. Ultey was, in a lot of ways, su generis. First of all, the season cited was, in context, very disappointing for his age/level considering where he was drafted. Moreover, Utley’s development path was not just usual, but unique. What he became given where he started was more than just unusual. The Phillies seemed to specialize in players with am unusual development path (Utlely, Ruiz, especially, Werth, Victorino, Howard to a somewhat lesser extent) to the point where some Phillies fans think that that is the norm. It isn’t.
The fact is, talk all you want about how much Asche has “raked” in 2012 and 2013, he has “raked” like a guy who who is going to be a major league star. Taking EVERYTHING into account (the numbers, the sample size, age/level, the scouting reports)t, he’s raked like a guy who is going to be what the OPTIMISTIC rational people predict – an average major league third baseman. Which is a GREAT thing to have.
Now, that said, of course there is ALWAYS some uncertainty about upside. But that doesn’t mean you throw up you hands and abandon the concept. You make your best prediction based on the available evidence. Is there a chance that Asche becomes more than optimists like myself expect? Yes. Is it likely? No,. The truth is, Ashe is probably a guy whose upside is MORE predictable than mmost prospects.
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Obviously the “has” in the third paragraph was supposed to be a hasn’t.
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LOL. Ahhh, Larry, Funny how you miss my point all while making a similar point yourself. (comments removed)
Anyway, I could pick apart your post on so many levels but don’t have the time or inclination to write a “novel” nor do I care to emulate your style of posting. So I’ll pick on a few statements which so brilliantly place your ignorance on full display.
“stupid is because Utley’s season WASN’T PREDICTIVE OF HIS PERFORMANCE AS A MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYER”
You have to be thick here. This is my whole point and you got it without even knowing it.
“First of all, the season cited was, in context, very disappointing for his age/level considering where he was drafted.”
That’s your ‘first of all’? That’s not even a relevant point let alone a counter you should lead with. As if the development curve for every player was common.
“The fact is, talk all you want about how much Asche has “raked” in 2012 and 2013, he has “raked” like a guy who who is going to be a major league star.”
Where you getting this from? Is this willful blindness? How bout this part of my post – “It’s too early to discount anything with re to Asche. He might be a miserable flop who gets no more than a cup of coffee.”
Doesn’t necessarily sound like someone who thinks Asche is destined to be a MLB star now does it?
At least you posted something smart – below is exactly right. I’m not asking anyone to abandon the concept of prospecting. I provided a counter-opinion is all –
“Now, that said, of course there is ALWAYS some uncertainty about upside. But that doesn’t mean you throw up you hands and abandon the concept. You make your best prediction based on the available evidence.”
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Wow, Steve, what a train wreck. Let’s start with the start – bak makes a quite reasonable comment about Asche’s ceiling – you disagree (somewhat rudely), which is fine except for the rudeness. Now, your initial comment, which I responded to, with the comp to a guy who, but for a relatively short peak would be a likely hall of fame player, certainly SEEMED to suggest that you thought he was under selling Asche. Now you seem to be saying … what, it’s still not entirely clear, you are all over the place. Is there something about Asche in particular that makes predictions about him particularly difficult? If so, you haven’t explained what that is. I would say that the opposite is the case, if anything. Or is it inherently “presumptuous” to talk about the ceiling of ANY 22 year old prospect in AAA? If so, most people who talk about prospects are presumptuous.
What I suspect is REALLY going on is that you either don’t understand, or don’t like, how the term “ceiling” is used by 99.5% of the people who talk about baseball prospects.
In any event, what’s the POINT of the Utley comp? Other than the incredibly banal point that, once every 10,000 prospects or so, you get an EXTREME outlier in terms of development path? So what? People have made the Utley comp to try to show that Asche is truly similar. They’re wrong, but making that kind of comp at least makes a certain amount of sense. But if that’s NOT what you’re saying, what’s the point of the comp at all?
And, yes, development path don’t follow an exact and unvarying recipe.. But it’s not as if there aren’t patterns. We can do a pretty good job of predicting what a player will be if he progresses through the minors without encountering serious bumps in the road, and develops each of his tools to (what looks like) its maximum. We call that a player’s ceiling. That’s ESPECIALLY true once a player reaches the upper minors. Most prospects don’t reach their “ceiling.” A very few exceed it (which means that, in retrospect, scouts and other observers misjudged his ceiling. But those exceptions don’t mean that talking about a player’s ceiling is “presumptuous.”
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Below is my comment Larry – and it was a generalization not even directed at Bak.
““His [Asche] upside may be limited” – I see this reference on this site from time to time and it’s presumptuous to say the least.”
Your constant misinterpretation of posts are noticeably convenient in your counter-arguments, and if you truly don’t know why I brought up the Utley numbers then you are indeed clueless or can’t read, and if you think I was predicting that Asche would exceed Utley’s career then you are even more clueless than I previously believed. We did this same routine twice last year and even then you we’re critical all while misinterpreting the post you were critical about.
Removing the pure insults. – Matt
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And it’s clear NOW why you brought up the Utley comp – it certainly WASN’T clear from your initial post (re-read it objectively.) My point – pretty, uh, clear – was that your intended use of the comp was banal – not advancing an argument – worse, really, than if you HAD tried to use the way some people use it, to suggest that Asche is likely to follow a career path to Utley.
Using Utley’s minor league career – and certainly his 2001 season – to make ANY kind of point, other than utterly obvious one that, yeah, there are occasional players who massively exceed everyone’s reasonable expectations – is a pretty meaningless exercise.
Now, if you want to argue – which apparently you do – that Asche is a particularly enigmatic player – NOT your original argument – then, well, ARGUE it, don’t just assert it.
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Post content removed. Keep the personal insults out of this. – Matt
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Content removed as previous posts have been cleaned. – Matt
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Oh, hold on here Matt. This time I’m MUCH more sinned upon that the sinner.
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Okay, I tried to be nice and Matt, ironically, deleted my nice post.
I am keeping this as clean as possible editting anything not aimed at the discussion of baseball. – Matt
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I would add, about power in particular, that the past 15 years has indeed had an unusual number of players who developed … ahem, dramatically more power that one would have expected. We’ve grown to expect this to some extent, but, ah, I think for reasons which are fairly obvious, we’re going to be seeing a lot less of it.
(And no, I don’t think that was the story with Utley – but again, he is sui generis.
Asche is a kind of guy who could grow from what now is probably about 10 HR power at the major league level, to MAYBE 15 to 20 HR power – that IS the part of his game where he IMO likely has the most room for growth. But that won’t make him a star.
And as for adding an uppercut to his swing, I’d guess that that (even aside from the inherent problems with messing with a swing that is working) would cost him more (in terms of lower BA) than it would help him (in terms of increased HR).
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Bak, the few Iron Pigs game I saw Cesar Hernandez used his speed to steal bases and create scoring chances. He is not afraid to steal bases which the big club has need for.
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This season he is 5 for 5 in SB attempts. If that represents real progress from his prior base stealing success rate (which in 2011-2012 was below the break even point; he was better in his remarkable 2010 season), then that certainly is a real positive in his game that wasn’t there before. It’s good to see, but pardon me if I wait a couple of months (at least) before being convinced.
That aside, as I’ve said before a thread a couple months ago convinced me that his chance of eventually becoming a solid major league regular was probably a little higher than I thought, albeit still low. But it probably won’t, and shouldn’t happen in 2014. Utley likely will and should be back; if not, it’s probably Galvis’ job.
Not impressed at all by the fact that an extraordinary number of his balls in play have fallen in as singles*. The irony here is that I’m far more impressed by the small improvement of his BB/K ratio and the SB success rate, than i am by the (unsustainable) BA.
*And I’m not saying he deserves zero credit for it, he may well be someone who, because of his speed and swing has a higher than average BABIP, but … he’s BABIPing .423 right now. Even if that normalizes at an extremely high .350, that would cut his BA to .299.
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Cam Perkins?
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Delmon to start a rehab assignment with LHV starting this week.
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Already commenced
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Franco and Altherr are really putting on a show in Clearwater. Franco’s been doing it since midway through last season, so it’s not really surprising, but Altherr … even though he’s due for some sort of regression based on BABIP, the XBHs are clear evidence that he is driving the hell out of the ball. A light has clearly turned on, and if his progression continues, the Phils might have themselves an outfielder. Have there been any reports on his CF defense? From the box score last night, it appears that Hudson was back and manning the position, but if Altherr could stick there and play adequate defense, he could be a weapon.
Nice to see Joseph also get a HR yesterday.
I’ve noticed some negativity in the comments thus far despite a monster day for some prospects on the pharm yesterday. In honor of this: After 21 games, Aaron Alther has a higher batting average (.383) than Tyson Gillies and Zach Collier — combined (.160+.183=.343).
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Starting to believe on Franco and Altherr. 21 games in is legit to keep up this pace. Would be really great if these guys have a break out season and become stud prospects to go along with Biddle, Quinn and Morgan.
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I think we can already call Franco a stud prospect based on past performance and scouting reports. I agree that Altherr would be a nice addition to the group.
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Super stoked about Altherr, almost to the point of titillation. Two more walks last night –
Serritella with a 2:26 BB/K ratio (Valle is 3:18) – that’s putrid for what is supposed to be an advanced hitter.
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Franco was already a stud prospect. Baseball Prospectus had him #2, ahead of Quinn and Morgan.
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Quinn? Are you serious? At best, he is a question mark. He does not deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as the only few real prospects in the system. It is an insult to Franco, Biddle and Morgan to include Quinn in the same context. He is FAST, ultra fast, but it ends there. He hasn’t shown any signs of developing into even an average defensive player and he can not hit his way out of a paper bag. Quinn?? He is beyond fast, but that’s about it for now.. He has a LONG way to go to be considered a top prospect.
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I don’t understand the questions about his hitting, he is struggling at the plate in his first introduction to full season ball (go look up Franco’s spring in Lakewood last year). But he has some pop in the bat, yes 1 HR was an inside the park HR but he was the first Phillies prospect to hit one out in the Lakewood park. His K rate his up and the walk rate is down but it should look better. Not that this isn’t troubling but Quinn is a very legitimate prospect, probably now more in the Joseph and Asche level, but that has more to do with the steps forward by Biddle and Franco.
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AGREED. Quinn is a disappointment and will never go anywhere. Watch him play live–he is horrific. SS or not–cannot field a ball, turn a double play, etc… Only way he can get on base is by bunting–you can’t always bunt. 2 outs no one on and you bunt, REALLY–even my 6 year old son knows not to do this. He is a HUGE JOKE! Will be traded by EOY. DO OT put his name with the likes of Biddle and Morgan.
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Really looking good for the Cwater boys. Love to see Aaron move to corner position. A lot more value
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?
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He’d have a lot more value at CF. Again, I’d love to hear any reports of Altherr’s CF defense. He should be playing the position every day if he’s got any chance to stick there.
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Right. If he is a CF, he is a legit prospect. If he has to play a corner, he basically has to keep this obscene hitting pace, in order to be taken seriously.
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I’ve seen Altherr play center once, Hudson was in left that day, and left several times. In all instances there were not any real challenging plays, but from what I’ve seen I would say he plays center like John Mayberry. He takes long strides going after balls and has a decent but not great arm.
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I’m surprised to hear that Altherr doesn’t have a great arm. He was a pitcher and Shortstop in HS.
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Another big goose egg in the hit column for Logan Moore. When does the light bulb come on and they realize he’s a waste of roster space?
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Joe Jordan was quoted a few weeks ago as saying Moore may have the best catcher’s arm/release in the system. To be exact, here’s his quote re Moore: “”throws the ball as well as any of those guys, if not better.”
Players with gifted arms who can handle pitchers often have very long careers in professional baseball. Moore might not be a big name prospect but I certainly wouldn’t say that he’s wasting a roster space. He probably could have returned to Lakewood this season i/o Clearwater
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No doubt he has a good arm but he can’t hit his way out of a paper bag. His daddy is the only reason he isn’t already gone.
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John, the Phillies value a strong defensive catcher who can hit tool is average over an high average/poor defender at catcher.
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Sorry I meant to say a strong defensive catcher with average hit tool not “hit tool is average”.
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Give him some time-I believe he will come around. Better than others they have kept on roster.
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Its impossible not to be excited about Franco and Altherr. Altherr is a guy that always looked like he was close to getting “it” but would then tail off. He started strong last year but then fell off. He has all the talent in the world and hits the ball very hard. If he continues playing so well, he’ll be a legit top 5 guy with 5 tools. He can play CF but I really think he’s a corner OF. Hudson is an awesome CF but his hit tool hasn’t progressed at all. Good to see Dugan get out there and play finally. One other guy in that lineup to watch is Perkins. He hasn’t done anything yet to show that he couldn’t become a major league player. He plays 4 corners and hits very well, we need to keep an eye on him. As for my boy Asche, he’s up to 292 and I expect he’ll be over 300 for good by the end of the weekend. Biddle and Franco are the top two guys right now in terms of 2013 performance but Morgan looks pretty good also, up at AAA. On the other hand, Ruf, Quinn, and LGJ are at the other end of the spectrum.
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Was at the Threshers game last night, but i had to leave after 5 innings, I was really bummed out that I missed Franco’s 2 bombs. But I did see his bases loaded double, a laser to right center that hit the wall, and Altherr HR and Double. In Altherr case he was down 0-2 in both instances, on his HR he got back to 2-2 before unloading a bomb to left center half way up the berm. His double was on a 1-2 count that was a line drive over the LF head off the base of the wall. Altherr looks much more confident as a hitter now and I really think hes turned the corner. Dugan looked really bad in his first 2 ABs, swinging at some bad low pitches. Hudson had a good night as he hit a hard ground out and a sharp single up the middle, then stole second to set up their 3 run 5th inning. As for Milner, he actually looked good for his entire outing, last time I saw him he got hammered the 2nd time through the line-up. Tonight he was throwing a lot of strikes and working very quickly. He threw 94 pitches,. 66 strikes with 7 swing and misses. His high pitch count in only 5 innings was mainly the result of foul balls, I didn’t count them but there were a ton of them especially by the left handed hitters, what ever that means.
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I think Franco has more of an upside than Asche as the Phillies 3B of the future
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I think most people would agree with this. What’s exciting is that they both seem to be establishing floors in the big leagues, which the Phils haven’t seen from a third base prospect since … Rolen? Has it really been 15 years since the system produced a 3B who got more than a cup of coffee?
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Someone will have to move off the hot corner in order to play in pinstripes…since both have a hit tool.
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If they don’t trade Asche (trading Franco would be a bad idea) then you have two options, Asche to an OF corner (has the speed to cover ground, arm is probably good enough for RF) where he loses some value but is still useful, or you put Franco at first base where he loses value. Franco is probably the better defender at third base (slightly) but having of the two of them is a good problem (Walding isn’t a nobody behind them either)
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There’s also the pollyanaish idea that Asche could give second another try. His bat was bad when he played there in Williamsport, but he did have a .954 fielding percentage — not terrible for someone learning a new position.
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It doesn’t work well at second (he could probably play it, but Ty Wigginton has 2B on his resume). There has been talk at various points in their careers about moving Franco or Asche behind the plate but at this point in their careers there isn’t a enough time to learn it defensively.
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I think we more had Daniel Murphy in mind. The would be a great, albeit not probable, outome.
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And Zack Green after that, he’s looking good also
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Angelo Mora’s last 10 games- .289/.372/.395. 5 BB, 5 K, 2 SB. Hopefully his bad start was something we’ll forget about over the next couple weeks and he establishes himself as a real prospect.
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I really like Asche as a prospect, but the way everyone argues over him and his upside really annoys me. I feel like every other day there is a box score conversation dedicated to Asche. I know he’s an interesting prospect because he is the first real 3B prospect in a long time, but how about he all enjoy what he is doing instead of trying to figure out how good he’ll be in the MLB(something no one knows for sure).
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I agree. I can’t understand why folks are pissed off that Larry projects him as average big league regular. Disagree with him if you like, but: (a) I think that IS the most likely outcome (2 to 3 WAR) at third; (b) his current ceiling is probably a borderline AStar (4-5 WAR) at third, which would be outstanding; and (c) either outcome would be great for this team as it would allow money to be allocated to other resources. If Asche could later move to second, so much the better.
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A-B-C – I agree. Though I’d prefer he stick at 3B I assume you are contending that Franco would or could push Asche to 2b
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2-3 WAR corner infielder still in his cost controlled years if/when Franco is ready? That’s a great trade piece to help in either prospects or to upgrade another position. That’s fantastic really.
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Agree. Yet I get vilified by … well, two guys .. for saying exactly that.
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Catch, I know that you and I disagree a little about Asche’s upside – always civilly, though. I’m trying to get a handle where you get the 4-5 WAR ceiling from. Genuinely curious.
Let’s look at 2012. David Freese clocks in right at 4 fWAR. AND … interesting enough, his season looks a lot like what a really, really optimistic take on Asche might be. Good BA despite mediocre contact skills, 20 HR, which is what all of us, ironically, seem to be saying is what MIGHT happen if Asche’s power improves, about average defense, below average base running. Above average plate discipline, a little better than what Asche has done in the minors.
Set aside the fact that there is a significant difference between 4 WAR and 5 WAR … that just seems pretty optimistic, especially for a “typical” season. i mean, plenty of average players have a 4 WAR career year. That doesn’t make then a star.
That said, the Freese comp is an interesting one, and I guess the comp you want to make if you are very optimistic about Asche. (The minor league trajectory was obviously quite different, slower that Asche’s but obviously also more impressive in certain respects.)
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