2011 Draft Recap and Analysis

Another year, another draft in the books. In years past, I simply compiled a list of the picks on their own page, and then wrote a really long piece giving my opinions on every pick. This year, I did day by day analysis, but in addition to that, I created a much expanded draft picks register. Please see the links below for all of the content. You can also find all of this information at the top of the site under the “Draft” sub-heading. When the dropdown pops up, select “2011 Draft Picks”

Previews: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4

Day by day analysis: Day 1, Day 2, Day 3

2011 Draft Picks register

Check below for more on the 2011 draft

In lieu of going over all picks in detail, I decided this year to beef up the content on the Draft Picks Register page. For each prospect, you’ll find: College Commitment/Level, Height/Weight/Handedness, D.O.B, a quick one/two line scouting report, videos (if available), articles and profiles from newspapers and team websites, and then any detailed scouting reports I was able to locate. If you come across articles, scouting reports, videos or news of any kind of a player, please post it in the comments section of the draft picks register page, don’t post it here. In addition to all of the background information, I added a chart showing each pick which will be updated as players sign. If a signing bonus is not reported, you can assume it is $25,000 or less, and for guys taken after the 15th round or so, its often times much less.

What I do want to do is look at the draft from a few different angles, including the types of players taken, and then break the players down into groups based on expected price tag/my preferences. Before I do that, I do want to express one thing. I don’t know how good any of these players are. Neither do you. Perfect Game, Baseball America and every other source has a slightly better idea than we do. The Phillies have a slightly better idea than those people. But the reality is, no one knows. Prospect attrition rates are through the rough, and most guys drafted this year, not just by the Phillies, but by all teams, won’t be major leaguers, let alone stars. These guys give us names to dream on, to imagine the best case scenario, but that’s what they are…dreams. So with that disclaimer, let’s get after it.

I prepared 3 charts.

Distribution of Phillies draft picks from 2007-2011 by school level

* In 2009 and 2010, the Phillies got away from drafting an overwhelming majority of high school guys, selecting just 19 and 15 respectively. In 2011, they jumped back up to 24, which compares favorably to 2007 and 2008.
* The Phillies have gone the JuCo route quite a bit in the last 5 years, notably taking 8 guys last year. This year, just 4 were taken, the fewest since 2007
* The 12 college seniors is the fewest taken since 2008.

Distribution of Phillies draft picks by position

* It only “seems” like the Phillies never take catchers, but the reality is, they just haven’t had a lot of luck/spent a lot of picks on highly talented catchers. I was big on Cameron Rupp last year, but he’s struggled this year, and he came from a big time college program. Finding catchers is tough, but the Phillies took 7 of them this year.
* The Phillies drafted 6 shortstops in 2011, which equals their total taken from 2008-2010.
* The 17 RHP is the second lowest total since 2007.
* The 7 LHP taken is the 2nd most since 2007.

Distribution of Phillies draft picks in Rounds 1-10 by school level

* This was the first draft post 2006 in which the Phillies didn’t take a college senior in the first 10 rounds
* The 5 juniors taken was the most of the last 5 years.

So, what are the takeaways? I’m not sure. The Phillies have their lists, and they basically stick to them, depending on what the board gives them. The huge bounty of shortstops is obviously welcomed, as the system lacks many up the middle prospects, and the Phillies bread and butter, the projectable RHP, seems to have taken a back burner this year. Prior to the draft, Marti Wolever indicated the team would look at SS, C, and LHP prospects, and to his credit, they managed to snag 20 total.

The Signing Deadline

Now that we know who we got, the question is, whats next? The MLB signing deadline is August 15th, 2011 at midnight Eastern. All prospects not signed by this time go back in to the draft next year, with the exception of college seniors or players with no eligibility remaining, as they until before next year’s draft to sign a deal. Over the last few seasons, the Phillies have had a number of deals go down to the wire. In 2008, Jarred Cosart signed before the deadline, receiving a whopping $550K as a 38th round pick. In 2009, negotiations with Brody Colvin went down to the wire, with him eventually signing for $900K in the 7th round. Last year, the Phillies negotiated with 5th round pick Scott Frazier up until the final day, and when an agreement couldn’t be reached, the Phillies made 3 deadline signings, spreading out $1M between RHP Kevin Walter, RHP Jon Musser and OF Brian Pointer. Expect the same to happen this year, as the Phillies have a few big ticket items.

Potential impact of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement

Much has been made of potential changes to the draft, including mandating hard slotting for signing bonuses and extending the draft around the world instead of just the US, Canada and Puerto Rico. While I think the worldwide aspect is likely to fail because of logistics, I do believe hard slotting will be agreed to. This could have a number of impacts, both positive and negative. While I think Bud Selig is an idiot, here is what he had to say

Slotting and a truly worldwide Draft are two items that will be on the Collective Bargaining Agreement agenda when Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association begin to negotiate a new deal, with the current one set to expire at the end of the year. On Monday, in between reading the first-round selections at the podium for a fifth consecutive year, Selig reiterated his optimism that slotting will happen.

“I do. I’ve said before, so I’ll say it again, I believe in slotting and I believe in the worldwide Draft. I think it’s important,” Selig said. “Remember, we went to the Draft in 1965 — there was a reason that they went for it. They went for what I call competitive balance today. Back then they called it parity. I think the Draft has worked, but there are some things that have happened in the past five or six years that are a little worrisome. So I believe in slotting and I believe in the Draft.”

The intent of hard-slotting would be to even the playing field for all clubs, fostering a system in which the top talents go to the teams with the first picks and eliminating the possibility of better players falling to teams that have larger budgets, due to bonus demands.

- Link

The goal is to get the best prospects to the worst teams. As it currently stands, the Commish can only make slot “recommendations” to teams. When a team wants to pay over the recommended slot, they must contact the Commissioner’s Office and fill out the proper forms. The Commish, or one of his cronies, will call the team’s President and try to persuade the team to re-consider. But that is the end of their influence. Many teams, notably the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees, Royals, Reds, Blue Jays and others have chosen to thumb their nose at these recommendations, while other teams such as the Mets, Angels and Astros normally adhere to the recommendations completely. A few teams, including the Phillies, generally follow the guidelines, but will color outside the lines on occasion. With hard slotting, in some form, restricting bonus amounts, it should level the field. There will be no negotiations and haggling, and theoretically, a player will know when he is picked exactly what he is enabled to as a bonus, and then he’ll decide if he wants to sign or not. With the Phillies scouts being as good as they are, this could be a huge benefit, because they will not have to face the constant worry about a player’s negotiating skills. However, this method could drive a lot of premium high school talent away from pro baseball and to college. Under the current system, if a premium prep prospect doesn’t get picked in the first 2 rounds, there’s a chance he will slide well down the draft. Teams generally start taking fliers on these guys after the 10th-15th round. They follow them through the summer, and then make an offer. Sometimes that offer is enough to buy the player out of college. Most times it’s not. Under a new rigid slotting system, these summer follows would almost assuredly disappear. This may mean deeper college drafts every year, but in the first 2-3 years of the new system, the talent could greatly drop off.

Considering these concepts, this summer shapes up as one of the more interesting in recent memory. Industry whispers indicate a number of teams seem more willing to just spend this year and not worry about what the Commish says, and then worry about slotting this winter when negotiations open. Will the Phillies be one of these teams? I don’t know. As a high school prospect, you know that in 3 years, the baseball signing bonus system may look a lot different. Which means if a team is offering you $300K as a 10th round pick, you may be well advised to take that money and start your pro career.

Determining Signability

When you talk about the draft, “signability” is the biggest catch word there is. Area scouts who see these prospects multiple times a season get to know the players they focus on, and they start to understand what the kid’s intentions are. Your signability is determined based on 3 main factors: college commitment/eligbility remaining, developmental curve, and family belief/pressure. As a high school junior/senior, you want to secure the best possible scholarship possible, even if you have no intention of going to college. Big time D-1 programs carry a lot of clout, and securing a scholarship to one of these schools gives you a high amount of leverage. Conversely, a commitment to junior college program, either because of poor grades or a desire to re-enter the draft in a year could lower your leverage slightly. A player with a commitment to Vanderbuilt, one of the top programs in college baseball, and a commitment to a small Junior College in Kansas are basically on opposite ends of the leverage spectrum. The second factor is family “pressure” or considerations. If a prospect comes from a very affluent family where money is not a prime concern, they can view the $200,000 signing bonus a team is offering as unimportant to their long term future. In some cases, a prospect’s family will urge them to attend college because of family connections to the college, or just because they feel the 3-4 years of college is more important to their growth as a person. The developmental curve means that a prospect may not have a commitment to a great program now, but because of the projection left on a player’s physical growth or tools, they estimate their draft stock will be significantly higher in 3 years. These prospects often play multiple sports in high school and have very underdeveloped baseball skills, but huge physical projection and growth. You add all of this together, and you get an idea of how signable a player is. A player from a wealthy family with a commitment to a college with an excellent baseball program that both of his parents attended may be virtually unsignable, while a prospect with a JuCo commitment from a regular middle class family may be more motivated to sign. Draft eligible sophomores and Junior College players have a bit more leverage than the typical high school junior because they have multiple years of draft eligibility remaining.

A review of the Phillies picks, grouped by upside

I wanted to approach this final recap by grouping the players into tiers, and trying to guess the bonus amount that will be required to get the player signed. I’m going to give more detailed thoughts on the higher ranked guys, and brush over the other guys with very brief (or no) thoughts. Here are the tiers I’ve divided guys into and the criteria I used to reach this assumption

5 Star Guys = Elite potential prospects. Potential all-stars and difference makers
4 Star Guys = Above average prospects, maybe not all-stars, but very good
3 Star Guys = Average prospects, chance to be big league regulars/starting pitchers/closer
2 Star Guys = Fringy prospects, likely bench guys if things break right/middle relievers/spot starters
1 Star Guys = Org filler, highly unlikely they will reach the majors or contribute in any meaningful way

Remember, this is subjective, and just my opinion. Your mileage may vary. And it probably will. I’m not ranking guys within each group, just listing them as I go, so don’t read anything in to that. The bonus amounts are going to be estimates. Not all guys will sign. The guys who sign will often times sign for more or less than my estimate. That’s why its called an estimate. I’m just trying to get an idea of the player’s current talent, his projected talent, and the amount of leverage he has moving forward to give a guess.

5 Star Guys

Larry Greene Jr, OF [Estimated bonus = $850,000] – Greene’s power alone could make him an all-star, and its a good thing, because its his only elite tool. His athleticism has come under question, but I think he’s going to be just fine in LF for the foreseeable future. The estimated bonus for the 39th overall pick is about $850K, and I’d expect Greene to sign somewhere around there. He thought he was getting drafted by the Brewers, so I’m not so sure a pre-draft deal was worked out here. I debated dropping him in as a 4 star guy, but I think his power, a potential 80 on the 20-80 scale, could make him an impact player even if none of his other tools are better than average. He seems to have a good idea at the plate, which leads me to believe he’ll draw his share of walks and be a good complete hitter. Its borderline. If you rank him a 4 star guy, I can understand that.

Roman Quinn, SS [Estimated bonus = $600,000] – Quinn’s speed is game changing, and was rated as possibly the best in the entire draft. He’s not a big guy, but he has very strong wrists and a quick swing, which give him pop for his size. Watching a few videos of him taking balls at SS, his actions seem fine, and his arm looks like it will play. His speed in CF would be elite and give him the potential to be a game changing defender, but he could be even more valuable at SS or 2B. In a full season, he could be a 40 SB guy, and if he can improve his switch hitting ability, we’re talking about a starting SS/2B with elite speed. Big upside. Though he has a commitment to a good college, everything I’ve read indicates he’s signable. The 2010 slot recommendation at #66 last year was about $600K.

4 Star Guys

Tyler Greene, SS [Estimated Bonus = $900,000] – Greene is a very confident young man with big aspirations. He has great raw tools at SS, with a frame that could indicate above average power at the position, with a very strong swing. Unlike Quinn, his commitment is stronger, and it will take a sizeable bonus to buy him away from Georgia. $900K is basically beginning of the 2nd round money, which is about what he is at this point, but he has significant upside.

Mitchell Walding, SS [Estimated Bonus = $500,000] – Walding doesn’t have the same fanfare as Greene, but is close to him on a tools level. As a 2 sport guy, he is a bit more raw, but his upside is comparable to Greene’s. Like Greene, he has a commitment to Oregon, a very good college program, and he won’t come cheap.

3 Star Guys

Harold Martinez, 3B [Estimated Bonus = $450,000] – Martinez has two potential well above average tools in his raw power and his arm strength. His junior year was a bit of a disaster, but the frame, the power, and the defense are still there. He may never hit more than .270 in a season, which can be mitigated if he draws walks and hits for power. He noted his eagerness to sign and get his career going, and it was just confirmed today that he did sign. The slot here is about $525,000, but I expect he’ll sign for a bit less.

Riley Moore, C [Estimated Bonus = $450,000] – Opinion seems to be split on Moore, but I was swayed by the writeup from John Klima at Baseball Beginnings. His Arizona commitment is valuable, and with the premium placed on catching, he can reasonably assume that if he goes to school and develops, he could be a potential first 2-3 rounds guy in 2015. That would mean a bonus of at least $500K. its a tough choice. While his potential might warrant a ranking as a 4 star guy, I’m being conservative because catchers are fickle.

Jake Overbey, SS [Estimated Bonus = $300,000] – Overbey appears to have slipped through the cracks to the Phillies. Teams seemed to assume that he was a lock to attend college and join his brother at Ole Miss. However, it appears the Phillies did their homework and found out he might well be signable, and it may not even take a fortune to get it done. I feel good about this, and he’ll be an intriguing guy to add to the system if things get done.

Cody Asche, 3B [Estimated Bonus = $200,000] – Nebraska players rarely come back for their senior year, and its tough to see Asche improving his stock too much by coming back. He had a great junior year, and as a hitter with an advanced approach, could likely head to Lakewood after signing and then possibly start next year in Clearwater. 5th round picks generally receive anywhere from $50,000 to $300K, so I expect he’ll be on the higher end of that range. I’d be happy if he came at $150K.

Adam Morgan, LHP [Estimated Bonus = $250,000] – Morgan went earlier than he thought he would go, which means he should be able to get signed for a little less than slot. When the pick first happened, my first thought was “Matt Way”, which doesn’t bode well for Morgan, but upon further review, I think he’s going to be a bit better than that, and will get more than the $40,000 Way got as a 5th rounder in 2009.

Ryan Garvey, OF [Estimated Bonus = $350,000] – Like Overbey, the word appeared to be that Garvey was almost a lock to attend USC, but the elder Garvey said after the draft that he’s open to signing if he gets a good offer, and that they told teams all along they were open to offers to sign. Garvey’s best tools are his hit tool and power, and he’d be a very nice get for $400K or less.

Braden Shull, LHP [Estimated Bonus = $300,000] – Hugely projectable LHP with decent now stuff and a lot more to come. His Kansas State commitment has plenty of value for him, though some reports indicate he’d be open to signing if he got a solid offer.

Brandon Pletsch, SS [Estimated Bonus = $500,000] – His dad coached him in high school, and he has a solid commitment to UNLV, one which by all accounts he will not be passing on, so money probably is not an issue here. I like him as a 3 star guy, but I don’t think we have any chance to sign him.

Brendon Hayden, 3B/RHP [Estimated Bonus = $350,000] – Two way player with potential in both spots, but a strong commitment to Virginia Tech, and he seems like he’s leaning towards college. He wants to hit it seems and not pitch, so if the Phillies give him a chance to play 3B, he may be signable. He may also require more than $350,000, which might make him too pricey based on the high risk.

Nevin Wilson, LHP [Estimated Bonus = $300,000] – He’s raw and is mostly projection, but he has a very fluid and easy delivery which bodes well for future command. If his fastball ticks up, he could be a solid middle of the rotation starter. But we’re just dreaming at this point, and he has a commitment to a big time school in Arkansas, so he’s probably college bound.

Tim Ponto, RHP [Estimated Bonus = $300,000] – Raw local product, huge frame that you can dream on, but a commitment to St Joes gives him some leverage. If he has a big summer, a little schmoozing from current Phillies may help turn his head, but I’d guess college at this point.

2 Star Guys

For these guys, I’m putting the bonus estimate at $150K. If we’re able to sign a bunch of them, I’d guess a few of them will sign for less, and maybe one or two might need another $25K. Its so tough to estimate these types of things.

Brett Magard, LHP – Almost went 3 stars, because I like what I see and what I’ve read, but he is pretty raw and is another big project, and college seems more likely.
Kenny Giles, RHP – Raw arm, big potential, but very rough around the edges and long odds of putting everything together. Borderline 3 star guy, but I need more than a FB to rank him there
Jesen Dygestile-Therrien, RHP – Raw Canadian arm, solid mechanics, some projection here, would be a nice get and seems like a decent bet to sign for less than $200K.
Yacksel Rios, RHP – Already signed, and likely for $100K or less.
Colton Murray, RHP – Curious that he slid to us so deep in the draft, as a junior he has eligibility left, but should sign for $150K or less.
Kyle Olson, C – Very raw, but with a strong arm and some power potential. JuCo commit, but hopefully signable.
Scott Tomassetti, C – Like him a bit more than Olson, has a UNLV commitment which will cost more to buy out, may not be signable for anything reasonable.
Kyle Freeland, LHP – Intriguing lefty, huge projection here, with a commit to a mediocre or below D-1 program, might take more than $200K, but not sure he’s worth more at this stage
Austin Wright, LHP – Should sign for $50K or less, potential LOOGY or spot starter, should at least have a shot, but low upside unless something major clicks.
Logan Moore, C – Already signed. Fringy ceiling, Phillies obviously intrigued. Borderline 1 star guy, but I’m giving him the benefit because he signed so early and wants to get after it.
Austin Knight, C – Seems very raw, especially defensively, and seems committed to college.
Austin DiCharry, RHP – Has had shoulder issues and has eligibility left, so he probably won’t sign unless he gets a nice offer.

1 Star Guys

I consider all of these guys org filler with very little chance of being average major leaguers. One guy could jump out and surprise, but I think the odds are long. As such, I’m not giving any more details on them. You can check out the draft pick register for bio/info.

Zach Wright, C
Trey Ford, 3B – Signed
Taylor Black, SS
Drew Hillman, 3B
John Hill, C – Signed
Pete Lavin, CF – Signed
Matt Holland, OF – Signed
Cody Fick, RHP – Signed
Matt Campbell, RHP
Ryan Duke, RHP – Signed
Michael Rocha, RHP
Paul Cusick, RHP – Signed
Ian Durham, RHP – Signed
Mike Marshall, 1B
Greg Herbst, RHP – Signed
Brock Stassi, OF – Signed
Mike Nastold, RHP
Brendan Hendriks, 1B – Very raw, college bound.
Andre Kinder, LHP
Andrew Amaro, 2B – Very raw, college bound.

No feel at all

I’m putting a few guys here, because I really have no idea if they are good prospects or not, because I haven’t found much info on them.

Kewby Miller, 1B
Jonathan Knight, OF
Koyla Stephenson, RHP
A.J. Ladwig, RHP

My Preference List

If I had to rank the 10 guys I like the most, not assuming bonus requirements or things of that nature, my list might look like this

1. Larry Greene
2. Roman Quinn
3. Tyler Greene
4. Harold Martinez
5. Mitchell Walding
6. Riley Moore
7. Braden Shull
8. Adam Morgan
9. Ryan Garvey
10. Cody Asche/Kyle Freeland

Summary

Lets put a bow on this draft with a summary. Until we get to August 16th and the dust has settled on all of the signings, its impossible to “rate” or “grade” the draft. I like a lot of the prospects we picked. There is a bunch of filler in there too, but that happens in every draft for every team. I see intriguing guys at almost every position, and my hope is that the Phillies decide to be aggressive and spend, especially if it appears every other team is doing the same, especially those that have previously toed the line to the degree the Phillies have. I’m not expecting $10M to be spent here to sign everyone, but I would expect to get Larry Greene, Quinn and Martinez signed, one of the 4 star guys, and then a nice handful of the 3 star guys and a few of my 2 star guys at a minimum. I wouldn’t get too worked up if it takes a while for guys to sign. In an ideal world, you want guys out there getting reps this summer, but its not the end of the world if a number of guys, especially the prep prospects, sign at the deadline. These kids will be playing summer ball, and their performance will help the Phillies decide what to offer them.

I’ll try to do updates as needed during the summer, and then of course will write another article after the signing deadline. Until then, keep checking the draft picks register page for updates and post any and all information you have in that spot.

53 thoughts on “2011 Draft Recap and Analysis

  1. What a job! Thank you.

    The drafting of 8 (?) guys who, between them, are either 3bs or SSs is the best news in this draft for the team. I’d love to see those you’ve listed as 5 or 4 stars ALL signed…hopefully. There are several intriguing players within the group of eight and we know how much we need them to perform and become part of the big club ASAP…maybe 3-4 yrs for some. Meanwhile, it’ll be up to Reuben & Co. to keep the ship afloat at/near the top until the arrival of the best of them.

  2. I rarely comment on the message boards, but frequently check-in to read up on the Phils Prospects. This site has always done a fantastic job, but the draft coverage has been suburb and such a great tool for casual fan such as myself to be able to turn to. A big big big, THANK YOU
    (side note: I love the mobile format of the site too!)

  3. As always, thanks. You do great work. I think that you (and the rest of the team that helps out) deserve quite a bit of praise. Well done!!

  4. you need to do alittle more researchj on the catcher from sierra vista hs tomassetti great stats

    1. Perhaps you could provide a suggestion as to how a casual Phillies fan located on the East Coast could get more information on a HS catcher in CA? I think phuturephillies has more connections than the average fan, but this is not his full-time job. I’m sure he and others would welcome any introductions you could make or information you could provide.

  5. I REALLY like to see them get quinn in early, from reading about him,love the speed and bat never saw him play but am excited to see him start, rupp was a guy i saw and love too pp he is disappoint so far. was checking the previous drafts 08 already has given us stutes and worley, in a short time with more players coming on could be one of the better all time drafts,

  6. It will be really interesting to see how the playing time gets divided up once the players are signed, eiven the high amount of 3b/SS that were drafted. It seems like 3b will be okay, Asche and Martinez may split time at Williamsport, with one of them possibly getting a bump to Lakewood should their performance merit it. Shortstop, on the other hand, could feature a ton of guys fighting for time. Granted, some of them may not sign, but even if three out of the four higher picks (Quinn. Walding, Overbay and Greene) get inked, they would probably all go to the GCL. I believe Trey Ford will be a shortstop too, but he may go to Williamsport. Any thoughts?

    1. Yeah, I think Harold Martinez will play every day.Asche , they say he is not that above average at 3B, and they have talked of converting him to catcher, I am for that. They should put him at Lakewood and let him work in there, quickly, backing up the other new signee, John Hill. Then they can knock Rupp down to start at WPT, due to hitting issues, and they can have Robert Stumpo, when back from filling in at Clearwater be his little used back-up. I guess that would bump Francisco Diaz back to GCL with Numata , Chavarin, the newly signed Logan Moore, and hopefully they sign Riler Moore. Playing time an issue for C in GCL. 4 on roster would be usual. WPT SS would start as Nerio Rios with Steven Malcolm there and at 2B with Matthew Payton working in and the newly signed Trey Ford. 3B Martinez, backed by Carlos Alonso (who reportedly can also fill as 3rd Catcher. 3B at GCL- Maikol Franco gets bumped down and Carlos Valenzuela can back up. WPT 1B/DH will be Christopher Duffy and Patrick Murray. The OF will be Kelly Dugan/ Kyrell Hudson or Aaron Altherr, and , if healthy had Eldemire in RF. IF the 5 are on roster they can be backed by Peter Lavin. If Eldemire out, the 4 can be backed by Lavin and Brock Stassi..
      Other GCL from personnel now to start season- Gustavo Gonzalez at SS, with Alejandro Villalobos at 2B alternating with Jorge Castillo and/or Witer Jimenez (both IF/OF capable) OF I have Bernardo Solarte LF, Brian Pointer CF, and Jorge Miranda in RF. I have Luis Unda at 1B. Starting off with some backups like Luis Amaro, Bill Rice, and newly signed Matthew Holland. Look for some quick new signings of position players.

    2. I would guess that Greene will be a deadline signing if he signs. Aug 15 is almost the end of the season, so he may get 2-3 games in the GCL, but the season will be almost done by the time he signs. If they can get Overbey signed early, I imagine he’d start in the GCL, but I think he’s a late summer sign as well. Black will likely go to Lakewood since he’s a college senior. I think Martinez will play 3B in the GCL and Asche will play 3B at Williamsport, but you could make an argument for sending Asche straight to Lakewood. He’s an advanced college bat and most ready to make the jump.

      I expect it to actually look like this

      Martinez already signed –> 3B at Williamsport
      Quinn signs early –> SS on GCL team
      Asche signs early –> 3B at Lakewood

      Overbey, Greene, and Walding all sign on Aug 15, if they sign at all. All 3 go to GCL, one DH’s, one plays SS, and possibly one of Overbey/Walding gets a few reps at 3B.

      It will be a great problem to have.

      1. If we have X amount to spend at the deadline, do we give it to Greene or divide it between the other two? Or is there a chance we sign them all?

  7. Thanks for this, PP. The only major quibble I have is with your placement of Giles. To me, in some ways he is like Larry Greene (it’s annoying that we have to specify which Greene we are talking about – perhaps we call him just Larry?) – he has one tool that rates very highly on the scouting scale and the rest of his game is raw. Perhaps your placement is right in terms of most likely outcome for Giles, but I think the potential reward with him is the same as with Larry.

    1. Not sure what happened, I thought I replied to this before but it didn’t show up.

      The reason I ranked Giles lower is that his fastball is still very inconsistent, in terms of command, life and even velocity. He’s not consistently pitching at 96 and locating it. His secondary pitches are both still very much below average.

      LG’s power is already present, and his potential power down the road is massive. Not to mention, pitchers have a very high flameout rate, especially guys without even big league average command/control.

      I’m definitely interested in Giles, and maybe I’m selling him a bit short, but guys with just arm strength and no real idea (and he hasn’t logged all that many innings) are very risky. I hope he signs and the Phillies point him in the right direction.

    2. LG and TG would be an easy nomenclature for differentiating them.

      Since Larry is a hulking LF power bat, and Tyler is a 165lb athletic shortstop, Big Greene and Little Greene would be a fairly clear indicator as well.

  8. Adding to the chorus: great job over the past few weeks. Very impressive coverage.

  9. This site is wonderful I love the content and the comments.

    I get the feeling from reading about Martinez that he may come out and play with a chip on his shoulder. I really like that signing, and especially where we got him. I’m looking forward to following him this summer.

    Once again…great job with the site!

    1. I feel like he’s going to take the Rupp route (or even Jeremy Hamilton back in 08) and simply get overwhelmed by advanced pitching and wooden bats.

      Just the gut feeling I have on him.

  10. I am with you in that I am cautiously optimistic about the draft. More than in past years the Phillies do appear to have been a little more aggressive in trying to draft at positions of need while also recognizing that the first few picks are about signability (after the top 20 or 30 obvious talents are off the board) and then the rest of the draft is about finding guys with a couple of tools and a relatively high ceiling.

    I don’t think the number of HS players drafted means that much. The slightly lower number of college players drafted might be a sign that the extended rosters are a little larger this year than in the past. High school is usually about signability and budget. Last year we signed 5 HS players. I am hoping for 7 or 8 but do not expect much more than that. Hence it really does not matter if we draft 15 or 25 HS players, especially those beyond the top 15 rounds. The key is how many we draft that we think we can sign. Even if we sign a few more this year we probably only drafted a dozen or so that we are looking at seriously to sign.

    I do think the Phillies seem to be a little more aggressive this year about over-slot signings or maybe they have just fine-tuned or institutionalized their strategy. They are probably realizing that their signing budget was a little too low the last 2 drafts and that getting talent is not only a function of high draft picks but also a function of spending your budget wisely on later round over-slot signings.

  11. any news on any possible new signings….keep up the great work…that is directed to pp, supporting cast as well as readers who are out there digging for info especially gketch!!!!!!!! thanks!

  12. This seems more like the 2008 draft than the last two, so I’m hoping the Phillies follow through with more high ceiling signings than in the past two drafts. They seem to want to take advantage of a strong draft. The first 10 rounds especially look stronger than the 2009 and 2010 drafts and there are the usual late-round fliers.

    1. The 2009 first 10 rounds yielded Brody Colvin, John Singleton and Julio Rodriguez, I believe.

      1. Yeah, the top 10 rounds ended well in 2009, but I didn’t like the way they started …. gap, Dugan, Hudson, Buschini(?), Way. I like the early pick HS guys better than I liked Dugan and Hudson and don’t think this year’s top 10 has a throwaway early pick to match Buschini. Of course, we also have 11 picks in those rounds this year vs 9 in 2009, so that also makes this year’s top 10 stronger. It remains to be seen if we sign the equivalent of a Singleton and Colvin out of these picks. Of course it also remains to be seen if Inch and Altherr develop into anything. I still have faith in Altherr, despite his being over his head at Lakewood, but Inch has certainly had a hard time staying on the field and I don’t see him as having the raw talent of Shreve, who is struggling after his loong layoff.

    2. I went back to see the HS picks we took that didnt sign from 2008 and only 4 were re-drafted this year. Rd 14 Mark Ginther 3B we drafted him in with pick 48. Coy drafted in Round 45 we took him at 7. Blaine O’Brien was taken Rd 48 we took him at 34. Mathew Johnson Rd 23 we took in 37.

  13. great recap as always PP — it’s a pleasure coming to the site, especially come draft time

  14. Great stuff as always. I really appreciate all the work you do. And as a fellow blogger, I’m always impressed with HOW MUCH info you can get out in a short period of time.

    Re: Larry Greene.

    I’ve read several places that an 80 on the scouting scale represents a once-in-a-decade talent. Strasburg’s fastball, Mike Stanton and Bryce Harper’s power, that kind of thing.

    Do you carry the same line of thinking and believe the Greene has truly elite power? Or do you not believe 80 is meant for only one prospects every couple years.

    1. Its all in your interpretation of the 20-80 scale. Some people hold it up like its the Magna Carta. I think it serves its purpose even if used a bit more loosely. The top and bottom should be the best of the best, the elite. I think LG really does have 35-40 HR power. That would rank him in the top 3 in the league in terms of HR. I think that’s pretty special. Maybe not an 80, but who is an 80? I’m fine with 70 as well, I think the point is the same though

      1. Kids often develop power as they mature so it may not be that crucial of a factor in evaluating kids that are coming out of high school. I am kind of concerned since there is some doubt as to his fielding ability.

  15. Nice writeup. One slight thing. You write regarding the draft: “The goal is to get the best prospects to the best teams. ” Don’t you mean just the opposite? The teams pick in reverse order of record because the point is to get the best prospects to the worst teams, so the worst teams get better.

  16. It was posted on draft register link, but SunGazette writer guessed at Williamsport roster. I had my own guess after the draft and reviewing the Extended Roster provided by this site. (I really like the roster tabs, btw.)
    Quick question, how often have the Phillies put a drafted player directly into Lakewood? I am sure it has happened and I have not followed minor league assignments that long but it seems rare. Anyway, I assumed none of the draftees get assigned above A-.

    Williamsport Guess: C Z.Wright, Diaz, Hill; 1B/DH Asche, Duffy; 2B Payton, Malcolm; SS Rios, Black; 3B Martinez, Frankel; OF Dugan, Hudson, Altherr, Eldemire, Lavin, Holland.
    SP: Walter, Garner, Kleven, Morgan, Castillo; RP: Gomez, Murray, A.Wright, Nesseth, Rocha, others…

    GCL Guess: Numata, L.Moore, Stumpo; 1B: Murray, Cusick; 2B: Quinn, Silva; SS: Walding/Overbey, Gonzalez; 3B: Ford, Hillman, Alonso; OF: Solarte, Pointer, L.Greene, Unda, Miranda
    SP: Musser, Inch, Nunez, Best, Arias; RP: Giles, Y.Rios, J.Smith, Fick, others…

    Not sure where Maikel Frankel/Franco goes. Was high priced signee in GCL last season and struggled. He should be bumped but Martinez and Asche both should get lots of 3B at-bats. Could see Eldmire, Dugan, Duffy, Kleven, Gomez, Murray all get bumped to Lakewood eventually.

    1. M Franco wasn’t high priced and he didn’t struggle in the GCL. He had a good year at age 17.

  17. Scott Tomassetti is undervalued at 150k . His stats have to be in the top 5 of all high school catchers this season.
    445 BATING AVERAGE, 15 HRS 70 RBIS, 61 HITS 24 DOUBLES and a 956 slg pct not to mention that he plays in the very competitive las vegas prep league which produced Bryce Harper and his current teamate at Sierra Vista and 2011 1st rd pick ss Jake Hager.
    Scott is the alltime single season leader in hrs and rbis at Sierra Vista. He is one catcher that they will be happy they drafted

      1. I was wondering if someone would use your estimates in negotiations, as you are a very educated evaluator.

    1. Phillies are bargain hunters when it comes to the draft, but they really need catchers. I guess the word on him is that he wants to enroll at UNLV or else he would have gone earlier in the draft.

    2. Kinda fits the comment that that he might not be signable away from the UNLV commitment for a “reasonable” amount.

  18. According to your estimates, it’d take $5,150,000 to sign your top 10, and of course we’re signing more than 10 players. We haven’t spent nearly so much in recent years, but that figure still sounds reasonable,(to fans) especially considering our conservative international presence and organizational needs created by trades. I’m just wondering whether recent investment in our Latin Baseball Academies could affect our draft budget, or whether international spending, player development and the amateur draft are fixed costs, which exist independent of one another. I bet the club would say they’re unrelated, but you have to think the overall budget is fixed and cash is distributed accordingly. Who has the say in these matters? Is it Monty, Ruben or Marti? All of the above, I’d assume, in descending order.

    1. They won’t spend that much on the 1st 10 picks. The estimates are well over the slot recommendations from last year. Martinez won’t get much more than 400k, Morgan will get 275k or less and Asche already signed for 168k. The only players that logically can command more than slot are Roman Quinn, Mitchell Walding and Overbey. The Phillies may give Quinn 600k, which is a little overslot for his spot. They may only sign one of Walding or Overbey, maybe neither, if they sign Tyler Greene.
      They won’t spend more than 3 million on the top 10.

      1. Yeah it appears my estimates may have been too high at the top, but also too low on a couple guys I dropped in the $150,000 category 2 list. They were estimates assuming inflation from last year’s slots. If there is no inflation, that’s great.

    2. Baxter, I have to improve my reading comprehension. I read your post as saying the Phillies would have to spend 5 million on THEIR top ten picks. You obviously were referring to PPs preferred, top 10.
      Then yeah, they would spend close to that, if they signed all of those guys. I don’t think they sign all of those Shortstops though. I’d say about 4.3 million, on 8 of PPs top 10, and about 1 million on the other 40 picks.

  19. hope they sign quinn, from what i am reading he has a good chance to be a speedy rollins type, and couple of the young hs catchers and infielders, dont care about the pitchers in this draft, none of them from reading thrill me.rather go infielder and catchers imo

  20. PLETSCH, three year All-State, four year starter, lifetime .480+ hitter with over 500 high school at bats. He would prefer to begin his pro career, but would likt to get paid a reasonable amount. Was first called in early teen rounds (11-18), he has a great glvoe can play multiple positions, 6.6 60 guy, real nack for the game. Missed all the showcases – he is a two sport guy (Starting HS QB). It is a long summer , quaility player, hopefully the Philies and PLETSCH can come to terms.

  21. No way an 8th round college junior signs for less than
    $50, 000. Wright will cost at least $ 125,000.

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