Here’s a new Phillies Discussion.

Media guys like Michael Barkan and Tom McCarthy have been making a lot of fuss about the Phillies closing to within 2-and-a-half games of the Braves (now 3 games after yesterday’s day off).  It’s a nice way to recognize how well the Phillies have been playing lately.  But a more important number to me is losses.  We have 4 more losses than the Braves, and the Braves have “three games in hand”.

The Phillies start an important 9-game road trip today.  They face some weak teams in Kansas City (35-53 and 4th in the AL Central) and Detroit (38-50 and 4th in the AL Central) sandwiched around Cincinnati (40-47 and 5th in the NL Central).  The Phillies have to take advantage of this soft spot in their schedule.  Playing down to the level of their competition or blaming bad outcomes on playing on the road won’t do.  I would say 6 wins is the minimum expectation with 7 being more realistic depending on pitching match ups.  Yeah, jinx.

I have seen the suggestions regarding any Phillies’ deadline moves this season.  As I hinted in the comments section of our last discussion, I had planned to delve into some of the considerations the team will face when trading for help.  This was spurred by the suggestion that the Phillies might consider taking on a contract that carries over to a subsequent season.

The Phillies accepted some dead money this season when the DFA-ed Walker and Castellanos.  That artificially pushed their projected 40-man 2026 payroll over $316M.  Competitive Balance Tax Threshold for 2026 is $244M.  The projected thresholds are $244/$264/$284/$304, with the rates at each threshold escalating 50%/62%/95%/110%.  The Phillies’ current projected tax is over $54M.

So, unless the Phillies trade one of the players under contract in a deadline deal instead of trading prospects, each $1M increase to their current payroll will be taxed at $1.1M.

Now, I’m not suggesting that they should or would continue with the current cast and no changes except from within the organization.  Just that there are monetary considerations no matter what they do.  And I can’t really see how they can move one of their big contracts (but the Sixers new GM did find a way to move Paul George and his contract).  But, this season maybe they should just follow the expression “in for a penny, in for a pound”.

For those of us who have been thinking that the Phillies will get salary relief when Walker’s and Castellanos’ contracts (around $38M) come off the books, that’s not likely to happen (unless they can jettison a big contract).

The Phillies have 9 players under contract for the 2027 season.  The AAVs for those 9 players salaries (plus a little over $20M for the pre-arbitration bonus pool and estimated player benefits) is over $236M.

1. Wheeler, $42.000M
2. Harper, $25.385M
3. Turner, $27.273M
4. Nola, $24.571M
5. Schwarber, $30.000M
6. Realmuto, $15.000M
7. Luzardo, $27.000M
8. Keller, $11.000M
9. Sanchez, $16.471M

That puts them within $8M of this season’s threshold, and they still have to add 31 players to the 40-man roster.

They have 7 arbitration players.  One player is entering his first arbitration year (Kerkering), 3 are entering their second arb year (Banks, Marchan, Hill), 3 are entering their 3rd arb year (Duran, Stott, Marsh), and one entering his fourth arb year (Stubbs).  They don’t have to tender offers to these guys but would need to replace them on the roster if they don’t.  (Fun fact, the Phillies are 41-23 since Stubbs’ contract was selected.)

They have 5 impending free agents – Bohm, Garcia, Alvarado, Sosa, and Mayza.  Whether or not they keep any of these players their spots on the roster will have to be filled.

Depending on how many vacancies are not filled through arbitration and free agency, the remaining roster spots will be filled by players under team control like Crawford and Painter.  However, the owners’ offer that was published in Baseball America suggested the minimum salary be raised to $1M (approximately a 28% increase over this season’s $780K), so the league minimum is very likely to go up significantly in the first year of the new CBA.

We assume the CBT threshold will be raised but we really don’t know.  Maybe they finally negotiate a ceiling and floor that both parties can live with.  I doubt it, but you never know.  However, I don’t see any reasonable threshold that will offer much salary relief to the Phillies.

The 2028 season will see their CBT payroll drop to $183M when Wheeler and Keller come off the books.  Duran, Stott, and Marsh will become free agents.  I’ll not speculate on 2027 acquisitions and new CBT spending limits/penalties.  But, if Wheeler continues to pitch as he is now, would (should) the Phillies and Wheeler consider a Kershaw-like relationship when his contract expires, year-by-year agreements?

Important Dates

• June 1, 2026: Dominican Summer League starts
• July 11, 2026: 2026 MLB All-Star Futures Game, Philadelphia PA
• July 12-13, 2026: MLB First-Year Player Draft, Philadelphia PA (Phillies drop 10 slots)
• July 13, 2026: 2026 Home Run Derby, Philadelphia PA
• July 14, 2026: 2026 MLB All-Star Game, Philadelphia PA
• August 3, 2026: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. ET
• August 13, 2026: Field of Dreams Game, Thursday game from Phillies at Twins series
• December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.  (Note that there are many more dates to add from Spring Training through the end of the 2026 season and calendar year.  I will add when I have accurate dates for them.)

Transactions

July 2026
07/04/2026 – Phillies traded RHP Ryan Degges to Cleveland for cash
07/03/2026 – Phillies sent RHP Brad Keller on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
07/03/2026 – RHP Giussepe Velasquez assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
07/02/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Alan Rangel to Lehigh Valley
07/02/2026 – Reading placed SS Erick Brito on the 7-day IL
07/02/2026 – SS Raider Tello assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
07/02/2026 – FCL Phillies activated C Rey Cruz from the 60-day IL
07/01/2026 – LF Tommy Pham assigned to Lehigh Valley from FCL Phillies
07/01/2026 – RHP Gabriel Barbosa assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
07/01/2026 – C Gabriel Flores assigned to Jersey Shore from FCL Phillies

June 2026
06/30/2026 – Phillies selected the contract of RHP Lou Trivino from Lehigh Valley
06/30/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Chase Shugart to Lehigh Valley
06/30/2026 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Chase Shugart
06/30/2026 – Lehigh Valley sent RHP Grant Holman on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
06/30/2026 – Jersey Shore activated SS Raider Tello from the 7-day IL
06/30/2026 – DSL Phillies activated LHP Leonardo Larez from the 7-day IL
06/29/2026 – Reading placed 3B Bryson Ware on the 7-day IL
06/29/2026 – Jersey Shore placed C Luke Davis on the 7-day IL
06/29/2026 – LF Tommy Pham assigned to FCL Phillies
06/27/2026 – Phillies signed FA LF Tommy Pham to an MiLB contract
06/28/2026 – Jersey Shore sent SS Raider Tello on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
06/27/2026 – Lehigh Valley sent RHP Jackson Rutledge on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
06/27/2026 – Reading placed LHP Adam Seminaris on the 7-day IL
06/27/2026 – Jersey Shore sent RHP Ryan Degges on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
06/26/2026 – Phillies signed FA C Scott Mudler to an MiLB contract
06/26/2026 – Lehigh Valley sent SS Liover Peguero on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
06/26/2026 – C Scott Mudler assigned to FCL Phillies
06/26/2026 – DSL Phillies placed OF Jose Briceno on the 7-day IL
06/25/2026 – Phillies placed CF Johan Rojas on the 60-day IL, right elbow UCL repair
06/25/2026 – Phillies activated CF Johan Rojas from the restricted list
06/25/2026 – Jersey Shore placed RHP Ryan Dromboski on the 7-day IL
06/24/2026 – Chicago Cubs claimed RHP Bryse Wilson off waivers from Phillies
06/24/2026 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Ryan Dromboski from the 7-day IL
06/24/2026 – SS Yohali Geraldo assigned to DSL Phillies
06/24/2026 – FCL Phillies placed OF Jalvin Arias on the 7-day IL
06/23/2026 – Phillies signed FA RHP Jackson Rutledge to an MiLB contract
06/23/2026 – Phillies signed FA SS Yohali Geraldo to an MiLB contract
06/23/2026 – RHP Jackson Rutledge assigned to Lehigh Valley
06/23/2026 – Reading activated C Kehden Hettiger from the 7-day IL
06/23/2026 – Jersey Shore sent SS Raider Tello on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
06/23/2026 – Clearwater sent RHP Orlando Gonzalez on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
06/23/2026 – Clearwater sent RHP Naoel Mejia on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
06/22/2026 – Phillies signed FA 2B Juan Medina to an MiLB contract
06/22/2026 – Jersey Shore placed RHP Jose Pena Jr. on the 7-day IL
06/22/2026 – DSL Phillies transferred RHP Jorge Miranda from the 7-day to the 60-day IL
06/22/2026 – Phillies designated RHP Bryse Wilson for assignment
06/22/2026 – Phillies activated LHP Kyle Backhus from the 15-day IL
06/22/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Max Lazar to Lehigh Valley
06/22/2026 – Phillies recalled RHP Alan Rangel from Lehigh Valley
06/20/2026 – Reading released OF Cade Fergus
06/20/2026 – Reading transferred C Caleb Ricketts to the Development List
06/20/2026 – Reading placed C Caleb Ricketts on the temporarily inactive list
06/19/2026 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Gabriel Barbosa
06/19/2026 – RHP Gabriel Barbosa assigned to Jersey Shore from Lehigh Valley
06/19/2026 – Clearwater transferred RHP Richie Cortese from the 7-day to the 60-day IL
06/19/2026 – FCL Phillies transferred RHP Jesus Montiel from the 7-day to the 60-day IL
06/19/2026 – DSL Phillies activated RHP Filippo Sabatini from the 7-day IL
06/19/2026 – DSL Phillies placed RHP Jorge Miranda on the 7-day IL