2011 MLB Draft Day 2 Analysis

Wow, what a day. If you’re a regular here, you know draft time is my fav time of the year. For me, the draft is a lot like Christmas, or your birthday. You get lots of presents (new prospects), you like some of them more than others, but they give you something to talk about and obsess over. I’ve written a lot of words over the last few weeks leading up to the draft, and I’m going to write more now, and then again this weekend after the dust has settled, before tying a big bow on things in August when the signing deadline passes. I’m going to give quick reactions and notes on the guys taken, but before I get to that, I’m going to go a bit philosophical, because I think what I want to say might explain some things, or at the very least, give you something else to think about. Before I do that, a HUGE thank you to Dave and Ryan for updating the picks this afternoon, and Ketch for providing instant reports in the comments. Amazing work. Now, let’s get started

The Process

Some of you have heard this explanation before, so feel free to move on. But those of you new to the draft, or who aren’t sure how the process works, let me share. I haven’t worked in a front office, but from what I’ve pieced together, this is how things work. Baseball is a near year round sport for amateur scouts. With showcase events all over the country for high school kids, summer leagues for college guys, the college and high school seasons, you are always scouting players. Generally, teams begin to scout players in their 1st or 2nd year of high school, and then develop the book on the prospect. This is how most organizations structure their scouting department.

Ultimately, the GM has the final say on a pick, but the influence of the GM varies from organization to organization. From the Phillies perspective, it appears Amaro stays out of the process. The GM has to go to the team president when the team needs to break slot, because the team president has to call the Commish and go through the formalities, so the GM helps set the budget and makes big calls of that type. The scouting director runs the show. He sets the scouting department mantra, hires the scouts, and attends events where a lot of legit prospects participate, such as Perfect Game showcases. If a team has a first round pick and its a high pick in the draft, the scouting director will often times go and see a bunch of players a number of times. On the big picks, the scouting director’s voice is almost always the loudest in the room. Beneath the scouting director is the national crosschecker. He/she reads all of the reports submitted by the area guys and then goes and sees a bunch of the bigger name guys on the follow lists. The national crosschecker reports in directly to the scouting director. Underneath the national cc are the area crosscheckers. An “area”, depends on the part of the country you’re looking at. Some teams have an area crosschecker in the South, Northeast, Midwest, West, etc etc, and some teams only have East/West guys. Area scouts are assigned in similar fashion. Big states with tons of prospects, like Florida, Texas and California will have dedicated area guys to their state. Larger areas with fewer legit prospects, such as the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, British Columbia and sometimes leaking further east to states like Montana) will have only one guy.

Here is how it works, for the most part. Each year, teams draw up large lists of prospects for each area, whether it be one state or a collection of states. The area scout is tasked with writing up reports on each guy on the list. His report will include at least one game report, often times many more, as well as ancillary notes such as a player’s signability, his makeup, work ethic, college commitment, and anything else you can think of. The area scout submits his report to the area crosschecker. The area crosschecker will review the reports, and then attempt to see a number of the players that the area scout lists as legit prospects. When the area crosschecker files his report to the national crosschecker, he highlights the guys he deems worthy of selection. The national crosschecker will then attempt to see the player and add that information to his report to the scouting director.

Draft Day

When draft day arrives, the team has compiled scouting reports on hundreds of players. For high school guys, this encompasses 2-3 years worth of games. Think about that. For college kids, teams could have 5-6 years of data on them. Teams create a “big board” in the draft room, ranking guys overall, and also creating state by state lists. Leading up to the draft, the area scouts focus more on signability and what it will take guys to forgo college. This information helps teams shift guys up and down. Then, the draft starts, guys start going off the board, and the lists are adjusted accordingly. Its a constant cat and mouse game, trying to determine when a guy will get picked. Teams take notice of other teams present scouting players, which helps them gauge who could realistically take their prospect. As the draft has now gone to multiple days, area scouts will call players after the first round, and then again tonight after the 30th round, to determine if bonus demands have changed. If players decide they are now not so sure about college, they will get bumped up teams boards. Its all very fluid.

Which brings me to something that I think is hugely important, as we get ready to analyze the guys the Phillies have taken so far. There are 30 different scouting directors in baseball, and these 30 guys all have somewhat different approaches and beliefs about what a good prospect is. All 30 teams have different player development methods, they preach different strategies. And the result? Hugely divergent draft preference lists. Look no further than the Anthony Rendon situation yesterday. Everyone considered Rendon either #1 or #2 in the draft. Yet the team picking 2nd, Seattle, did not have Rendon #2 on their board. And a bunch of teams after didn’t either. Was this because of his medical reports? His size? Questions about his power? Who knows. But the thing is, it only takes one club to have a different opinion of a player to greatly alter his draft stock.

This brings me to Baseball America, Perfect Game, ESPN, etc etc. All of these sites are aggregaters of information. Keith Law at ESPN does more in person scouting, so his opinions are heavily influenced by his own research. But BA and even PG are relying heavily on their network of scouts to provide them information. With different philosophies and different approaches to the draft, you’re going to get different opinions on every player from different scouts. Sites like BA and PG try to put together their best guess lists as to the talent rankings, but its an educated guess. With almost zero exception, the 30 MLB teams have more information on all of the prospects in the draft than the sites giving out rankings or ratings.

I guess what I’m trying to say is, every team has a plan. That plan focuses on the guys they prefer, based on their individual reports of their scouts, their read on a player’s willingness to sign, and then ultimately things falling properly so they get the player they want. Teams have very little incentive to leak information on players they actually want, because teams are constantly looking for an advantage. The Phillies have done extremely well in recent years in the absence of a high draft pick, and a lot of that has to do with the quality of their scouts and their ability to hammer down on the financials involved and know which guys are realistic targets. They hammered down on Jiwan James, they nailed Domonic Brown’s situation perfectly, and they did their due diligence on Brody Colvin and Jarred Cosart. The area scouts put in an incredible shift, and these three days are their reward, as the guys who put in the best reports and make the most convincing cases will ultimately see a few more of their guys taken.

With all of that said (which you probably didn’t bother to read), let’s get in to the picks. AS I highlighted before the draft, the Phillies in recent years have developed a very noticeable pattern, targeting these types of players:

* Athletic outfielders who are big on raw athleticism and low on actual baseball skills
* Tall, projectable righthanded pitchers
* Players (mostly college) who struggled in their draft year, but previously showed big time ability
* Players coming off an injury that damaged most of their season

When you draft at the top of the first round, you have your choice of players who have relatively few “warts”, if you will. When you’re drafting outside of the first 15 picks, things become a lot tougher, and when you’re picking at #39 for the first time, you have to be willing to take chances. The Phillies have taken lots of chances in recent years, with mixed results. This year, pre-draft, Marti Wolever, Phillies scouting director, hinted that the team was looking for LHP, C, and middle infield prospects. Which isn’t a surprise, because those are the most valuable positions in baseball. The Phillies usually say something like this every year, and then end up taking lots of outfielders and righthanded pitchers. This year, it was completely different.

I’m going to give brief notes on all the prospects taken. I’m planning a much more in depth writeup this weekend, covering all angles of all these guys. I covered the Larry Greene Jr pick last night, I like the pick, so I’ll start in the 2nd round. Ready? Lets go!

PG = Perfect Game

66 – Roman Quinn, SS/2B – Port St. Joe H.S (FL)

BA Ranks: 73rd of 200 overall, 10th in FLA
PG Ranks: 77th out of 331 overall, 7th HS in FL
College Commitment: Florida State
Video: Link

Quinn was one of the names I was tipped off to, which can be verified by a regular poster here. The Phillies believe he will stick at one of the middle infield spots, either 2B or SS. With the glut of SS prospects taken in the first 30 rounds, he may actually start at 2B, but it remains to be seen. In a perfect world, the Phillies would probably have liked to grab him at 90, but he’s been a steady performer this year and his run tool was lauded as being the best in the entire draft. He’s worked as an OF, but as I said, Phillies seem convinced he can play MI, with OF being a backup plan. At least that’s what I was told. Update –> in the draft review at ESPN, Jason Churchill also mentions the possibility of Quinn playing 2B.

90 – Harold Martinez, 3B, Miami

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 23rd in FLA
PG Ranks: 216th of 331 overall, 5th college in FL
College Level: Junior
Video: Link and Link (HS video)

Martinez was viewed as a potential first round pick heading in to the 2008 draft, but possibly a case of draftitis dropped him down boards to the Rangers in the 19th round and eventually drove him to Miami. He had an uneven college career, hitting an impressive 21 HR his sophomore year, but then struggling with the new bats college baseball moved to this year, and he never got on track. At 6’3/200, he has an almost ideal build for a 3B, and obviously has raw power. He’s struggled making consistent contact, which will ultimately determine his future. That said, his shown flashes of brilliance, and has been on the prospect radar forever. Could it have been nerves? He’s a great athlete, probably even able to play SS in a pinch, with plus raw power. If he’d replicated his sophomore year this year, he probably is picked 20-30 picks sooner, if not higher. He may never hit at the next level. But on a raw tools level, outside of the hit tool, there is a ton to love.

120 – Adam Morgan, LHP, Alabama

BA Ranks: 136th of 200 overall, 1st in Alabama
PG Ranks: 138th of 331 overall, 2nd in Alabama
College Level: Junior
Video: Link

Morgan has anchored the Alabama rotation, and gets the “poor man’s Cliff Lee” tag put on him, I guess because they are both from the South and have somewhat similar builds and arm actions. PG has him at 90-93 with a very good slider, BA is less enthused and notes he often pitches at 87-90 instead. His slider is his best secondary offering, and his changeup is average. I don’t have a strong opinion of him. If he’s healthy, can throw strikes, and has a usable breaking ball, he should be able to cruise through the low minors, and then the real test starts.

151 – Cody Asche, 3B, University of Nebraska

BA Ranks: 116th of 200, 1st in Nebraska
PG Ranks: 128th of 331, 1st in Nebraska
College Level: Junior
Video: Link

Asche is really the anti-Phillies draft pick. He’s a below average defender at 3B, but his best tools are his power and his ability to hit for average. BA hinted that he might be able to catch, but I’m not sure where that comes from. I imagine the Phillies will leave him at 3B for the time being and see if a little coaching can smooth out some of his actions at the hot corner. As Harold Martinez struggled with the new bats, Asche had a huge season, with 27 2B and 12 HR. Like Greene, his bat will carry him. Very un-Phillies like, but I like it.

181 – Mitchell Walding, SS, St. Marys (CA) H.S.

BA ranks: NR of 200, 15th in Northern CA out of 80
PG Ranks: 157th of 331, 25th HS player in the state
College Commitment: Oregon
Video: Link

And now we get to the first “hmmmm, interesting” pick of the draft. PG is high on Walding, praising his perfect SS frame, his strong arm and actions defensively, and his fluid lefthanded swing. BA praises his approach at the plate and hitting mechanics, but doesn’t seem as high on his arm/defense. Oregon is a quality baseball program, so he’ll likely require at least $750K, maybe more, to sign. As a 5th rounder, that would be well over slot, but probably not out of the question. There’s a lot to like here, and again, at shortstop, the second most valuable position on the diamond. I was impressed with this pick, but he won’t come cheap.

211 – Zachary Wright, C, East Carolina

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 17th out of 75 in NC
PG Ranks: NR of 331, 17th in NC
College Level: Junior
Video: Not yet

If the Phillies took a gamble in the 5th, they offset it in the 6th with Wright. Nothing in his profile jumps out, except his power and arm strength. Has trouble making contact, and his receiving skills are fringy. Phillies might think they can clean him up a bit, but it doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense. If they are planning on spending big, you have to balance the big ticket items with more affordable items. This looks like an affordable item.

241 – Kenneth Giles, RHP, Vavapai College

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 8th of 50 in Arizona
PG Ranks: 151 of 331, 5th of 25 in Arizona
College Level: JuCo, committed to Arizona, reasonable signability
Video: Not yet

Giles, 6’2/185 is a project, as he doesn’t have a ton of experience, but he has a cannon for an arm, sitting 92-95 and touching 98-99 with regularity. He’s worked on a splitter, but it is inconsistent, like pretty much everything else. The Phillies love arm strength, which they should, and they probably see someone they can craft into a late inning reliever here. I bet he works as a starter to get innings, and who knows, he could stick there. At first glance, he looks like a $250K guy here, a bit over slot, but manageable.

271 – Austin Wright, LHP, Ole Miss

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 10th of 40 in MS
PG Ranks: NR of 331, 10th in MS
College Level: Junior
Video: I think this is him. Its brief, don’t blink.

PG has him labeled as a reliever, as he’s very inconsistent and hasn’t missed a whole lot of bats. He’s 6’4/230 with a 90-94 FB, which gives you a good starting point, but his command appears to be sub-par, and he’s never really developed. With that kind of velo, though, the Phillies could see him as a bullpen piece.

301 – Logan Moore, C, Northeastern JC

BA Ranks: NR of 200, NR in CO
PG Ranks: NR of 331, NR in CO
College Commitment: University of Tennessee
Video: haha

Okay, I know a little more now. Had a commitment to Tennessee, not an easy sign, but possibly has a chance. Seems to have good tools, from what I’ve been able to find. Also apparently had a pre-draft workout with the Phillies and was impressive, so that is a positive. Also apparently has played some 3B and is now catching, so presumably a good athlete. Looks like an under the radar type signing.

331 – Jake Overbey, SS, University School of Jackson (TN) H.S.

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 16th of 41 in TN
PG Ranks: NR of 331, NR in TN
College Commitment: Mississippi
Video: Link (of him playing football)

Overbay is a two sport guy and played QB, which is what the video above shows him doing. He didn’t have a big senior year, and PG not mentioning him at all kind of cools me on him a bit. BA says he’s fairly well rounded but lacks a standout tool and thinks hes going to college. Probably.

361 – Tyler Greene, SS, West Boca Raton Community (FL) H.S.

BA Ranks: 83rd of 200, 12th of 100 in FL
PG Ranks: 152nd of 331, 20th in FL
College Commitment: Georgia
Video: Link

You wanna get nuts? Lets get nuts. Greene looks the part, as he has premium athleticism, great actions at SS and a plus arm. At the plate, he has great bat speed and raw power, but his approach is rough, and his hit tool is his weakest overall tool. Greene was ranked in the Top 100 at BA and by Keith Law, but PG downgraded him because of his issues with contact. He has a strong college commitment to Georgia, so he won’t come cheap, and could require close to $1M to sign. I haven’t been able to research just how strong his commitment is, but if the Phillies could sign him, it would make up for not having a first round pick.

391 – Yacksel Rios, RHP, Dra Conchita Cuevas (PR) H.S.

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 3rd of 18 in the Caribbean
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College Commitment: Not sure?
Video: Link

The first thing I thought of when I watched his draft video linked above was “Julio Rodriguez”….also signed out of P.R., also long and lanky with a fluid delivery. Rios sits 90-92 and has a long stride to the plate, something I really like to see. He was a position player for the first part of his baseball career before moving to the mound and is very raw. At just 17 (like J-Rod, if I’m remembering correctly) he has some upside and is very raw. Looks intriguing. Sign him!

421 – Colton Murray, RHP, Kansas

BA Ranks: 111th of 200, 5th of 25 in KS
PG Ranks: 126th of 331, 4th in KS
College Level: Junior
Video: Link

Murray pitched well on the Cape last summer, and has pitched well again this year. He’s undersized for a RHP at just 6’0/195, but he throws hard, sitting 91-95 with good sink/movement and has a good slider. He has a good quick tempo in to his delivery, and BA notes he might not need much time in the minors. Would be a good guy to get signed, send to Lakewood for the rest of this year to get his feet wet, then double jump him to Reading to start next year. I have to assume his performance on the Cape is what netted him the high rankings, but its weird he was still there for the Phillies to take this late. Nice pick.

451 – Trey Ford, SS/3B, South Mountain (AZ) C.C.

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 15th of 50 in AZ
PG Ranks: NR of 331, 10th in AZ
College Level: JuCo, Texas Tech commitment
Video: Not yet

Ford is a bit of a tweener, as he’ll have to move to 3B at the next level, but doesn’t have a big time bat. He seems to do a bunch of things reasonably well, has a good arm and is a decent defender, but he’s not going to be a masher. Looks like a utility infielder. Texas Tech is a good school, so he might require like $150K to sign. Not sure what the deal is here, but…I guess we’ll see.

481 – Ryan Garvey, OF Palm Desert HS (CA)

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 29th of 105 in Southern California
PG Ranks: 201 of 331, 32nd in CA
College Commitment: USC
Video: Link

Well, he has good bloodlines. I guess. Garvey has good power and a nice swing, though his defensive position appears to be in question, as he may wind up in LF or at 1B. It seems that it would require a substantial chunk of money to buy away his commitment, but considering who his pops is, money is probably not the primary focus. If he wants to go to USC, there might not be much the Phillies can do. Then again, they surely know this, so maybe they have the belief that he wants to play. Hmm..

511 – Taylor Black, SS, Kentucky

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 18th in KY
PG Ranks: NR of 331, 12th in KY
College Level: Senior
Video: Striking out against Sonny Gray. No shame in that.

He was listed as “John Black”, but I’ve seen Taylor everywhere else, so I’m assuming this is him. PG sees him as a legit SS at the next level and noted he hit well with the new bats, though not for much power. If nothing else, a good org guy to play solid defense behind our legit pitching prospects. I’m fine with this.

541 – Jesen Dygestile-Therrien, RHP, Ahuntsic (Que.) JC

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 8th in Canada
PG Ranks: NR of 331, 4th in Canada
College Commitment: Howard JuCo (Texas)
Video: Link

Was picked by the Mets last year, never offered a contract, and has apparently improved quite a bit. Good projection guy, currently 88-90, short and compact delivery, scouts seem to think he has some potential. Has a JuCo commitment, so not terribly strong, and would be a nice grab this late.

571 – Drew Hillman, 3B, UC Irvine

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 81 of 105 in Southern California
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: Not yet

Senior sign, played in the OF at Irvine, natural position is 3B. Probably just an org guy. Here is a longish article on him. I’m moving on, let me know if there is anything interesting in there!

601 – John Hill, C, Concordia (CA)

BA Ranks: NR, NR
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: Its unlikely

I’m moving on.

631 – Pete Lavin, OF, San Francisco

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 54 of 80 in Northern California
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: Not yet

I don’t see anything on him. BA ranked him 54th in NoCal, but didn’t give any info. He’s only 5’10/170, not sure of his skills, but I’d bet they are minimal. And since you want to read this piece before next year’s draft, we’re moving along.

661 – Riley Moore, C, San Marcos, HS (CA)

BA Ranks: 150th of 200, 18th in SoCal
PG Ranks: 316th of 331, 57th in CA
College: Arizona
Video: Link

John Klima, who runs the excellent baseballbeginnings.com site loves Riley Moore, and BA concurs, while PG takes a somewhat dissenting view. BA notes that he did not see much to hit his senior year because he played on a bad team, and PG’s notes don’t mention any negatives. He has above average defensive skills and is a good hitter from the left side, though he struggles batting righthanded. He has a strong college commitment and will likely cost a pretty penny to sign. Kind of reminds me of Andrew Susac.

691 – Matthew Holland, OF, Texas A&M

BA Ranks: NR, NR
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: 5th year senior
Video: Not yet

Holland is a 5th year senior. Which means he either signs for $1,000 or he gets a job selling insurance*

* I don’t know what his major is. I guessed.

721 – Cody Fick, 3B, Evansville

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 12th of 20 in IN
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: Link….to some sort of bizarre talk show he does.

I once drove 1,000 miles in a blizzard to spend a weekend with a girl who went to Evansville. Cody Fick was 12 at the time. That’s all I have.

751 – Matt Campbell, RHP, Florida

BA Ranks: NR, NR
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: No sir, I couldnt find it

Another senior. Another org guy. Possibly a reliever if everything works out. That is usually how these senior guys go. You can’t draft 50 legit prospects when you already have a deep system. He’ll fill out the Williamsport roster and then either defy the odds or move on and sell insurance with Matthew Holland.

781 – Ryan Duke, RHP, Oklahoma

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 37th of 45 in OK
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: I wish!

My guess is, the Phillies area guy went to check out Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley to see what all the fuss was about, knowing they would never get a shot at those guys, and when killing time, he stopped by Oklahoma and found two draft picks for the Phillies. Okay, not really, I’m sure the Phillies have scouted Duke plenty. I just don’t have any info on him. Could be joining Holland and Campbell Life Insurance Inc.

811 – Michael Rocha, RHP Oklahoma

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 24th of 45 in OK
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Junior
Video: No

Ok, so here is the real story. The Phillies area guy stops off to get dinner and runs in to Duke and Rocha at the local Chili’s. They strike up a conversation, the Phillies guy finds out they are both pitchers from Oklahoma, and after a few beverages, says “wouldn’t it be cool if you guys were drafted back to back by the Phillies, and then went on to anchor the Williamsport rotation?”….okay, NOT REALLY. He’s been the staff ace at Oklahoma, but has pedestrian stuff. Since he’s got 1 year left, he might go back and try to improve and jump up 10 rounds or so. We’ll see.

841 – Braden Shull, LHP, Mt Pleasant HS (IA)

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 3rd in IA
PG Ranks: NR of 331, 1st in IA
College: Kansas State
Video: Link

Shull is a big dude, at 6’6/215 and is just starting to tap in to his potential. He sits 89-91 but there should be more in there. His secondary pitches are all works in progress. Looking at his delivery, he seems to be very fluid and very low effort, which doesn’t raise any red flags, obviously. His college commitment is considered pretty strong, so we’re probably looking at at least $300K here, maybe more. But after lulling you to sleep with college seniors, this was a nice wake-up call.

871 – Ian Durham, RHP, California Lutheran

BA Ranks: NR, NR
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: Cant find it.

….and you’re asleep again.

901 – Paul Cusick, RHP, Penn

BA Ranks: NR of 200, 17th of 22 in PA
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Senior
Video: Ha

He goes to Penn. Because of this, TMac asked Wolever about him tonight. Wolever tried to play it up as him having a shot at the bullpen. Maybe he does. Marti sounded embarrassed to even be discussing him.

931 – Michael Marshall, 1B, Lubbock Christian

BA Ranks: NR, BR
PG Ranks: NR, NR
College: Junior
Video: Ummm

Nothing. At. All. So I won’t make up a story or insinuate that he might become an insurance salesman.

Whew. So there is a brief recap. That wasn’t really brief.

Summary

This was a very un-Phillies draft. Instead of the raw outfielders and righthanded pitchers, they went heavy on bats, including a bunch of really interesting prep guys. There will be signability risks here, guys looking at close to 7 figure bonuses, and then a bunch of org filler. This template is really the same one that most teams use. I haven’t really come up with a wishlist, or thinking which guys they really need to sign. Obviously they should sign all the best prospects. But its a bit more nuanced than that. I’ll discuss all of that when I write my full recap this weekend.

Tomorrow should prove interesting. Will there be a Jarred Cosart this year? We’ll see. I expect a few more filler types, probably an OF or two, a few college senior arms, and then a bunch of high school guys. I’ll have all the picks covered tomorrow, and then will work on some type of quick summary.

So thank you for your patience, and please continue to post links to any info you have. I did not have time to scour today’s thread and parse through 500+ comments to dig out bits of info, I wanted to get this post up and running now, but I will be searching for that info later when writing my recap.

Thank you for visiting, for my long timers and for my new friends. See you tomorrow for rounds 31-50!

55 thoughts on “2011 MLB Draft Day 2 Analysis

  1. Some notes I picked up over the day. I will have more tomorrow.

    2. Roman Quinn – SS – Signed with FSU

    Source says: I don’t have the dollar amount that he’s looking for, so I don’t know what it will cost just yet, but when I asked a connected FSU source of mine, he simply replied back that he’s expected to sign. I will continue to dig around. Also, he might have been announced as a shortstop, but I was told he’s an OF all the way. “Zero chance his glove can play SS”. On the other hand, my guy was surprised by the quickness of his bat for his size.

    4. Cody Asche – 3B – Nebraska

    Source says: Didn’t feel like signing Asche will be a tough get. The general feeling is that he has one foot out the door. Probably not a huge surprise, given his status and the fact that most Husker prospects do turn pro after their junior seasons, but I wanted to check.

    8. Austin Wright, LHP, Ole Miss

    Source says: Has been drafted a couple of times and twice turned down money in the 200K range. The expectations are that he will sign this time around. “His signability is great,” the source said.

    10. Jake Overbey, SS, University School of Jackson (TN) H.S. (Signed with Ole Miss)

    Source says: This one is the most interesting situation I got info on. His brother is currently at Ole Miss and turned down about half a mil last year. After almost winning the 3B job, he didn’t have a very good season and there’s a feeling that his family might be leaning towards signing if the number is right. The interesting thing that I got out of my convo is that it’s not going to take the amount that was turned down to make this one happen. I don’t want to give out too much of what I was told, but the Phillies have been on him like stink on you know what. They apparently ID’d him as a guy they wanted and went much higher than most expected. Gut feeling… this one should get done.

    14. Trey Ford, 3B, South Mountain (AZ) C.C. (Signed with Texas Tech)

    Source says: talked to one of my Tech guys who reports that the TT coaches do not expect Ford to show. They fully expect him to sign with the Phillies. Called him a plus defender, great speed and his bat is “good”.

    1. If you’re right on Ford and Overbey being likely signs that would be a good start to having a great class.

    2. Just to clarify, when you say Quinn is expected to sign, you mean hes expected to sign with Florida State and not with the Phillies, right?

        1. That’s what I thought at first too, and then I saw “signed with FSU”, so I’m not sure.

          1. Thats not what it says

            when I asked a connected FSU source of mine, he simply replied back that he’s expected to sign.

            The source is connected to FSU, meaning he has connections, but he just said he thinks Quinn will sign, meaning sign a pro contract.

    3. ketch, you are the man. I have to say that I get REALLY excited when I hear the Phils are all over a guy who is off the radar. They must see something they really like. And he’s a SS and apparently a good athlete! I’m now an Overbey fan (in addition to Greene and Walding).

    4. Ketch, I appreciate the insights, departure from statistical analysis and looking at the human side – youngsters/families making life decisions.

      1. Yeah, Ketch is in “Ryan Howard, August 2006” mode. Nice work, bud! (Same goes to James and everyone else – this draft was a lot of fun to follow)

        – Jeff

  2. Excellent wrap up. And a Cheap Seats link! When they drafted Garvey, all I could think of was his dork of a father in that episode. Good to see somebody else watched that show.

  3. Who seems to be the Toughest Signs? I.E. those who think their worth is way above what the Phillies may have slotted? Any Ideas and Ranges Player$/Phillies$ ???

    Thanks!

  4. It looks to me like the Phillies will be going after Mitchell Walding or Tyler Greene hard after they sign their first three guys to near-slot deals. It will be nice to finally get an SS in the system who has a legit bat. What do you guys think the focus of Day 3 will be? HS C or RHP?

  5. Randomly googling some of the no names….Logan Moore was a catcher mostly at JUCO with good throwing ability apparently (1.9) rising JR, committed to Tennessee

    Michael Marshall is the son of Mike Marshall. Transferred from Stanford to NAIA. He is a pitcher and his claim to notoriety is apparently throwing a CG in the NAIA WS with a broken foot

    John Hill, Concordia guy is a transfer from LBSU and threw out 23/53 base stealers last year

    Also this is a line from story about Lavin getting drafted: “Lavin joins former USF great Tagg Bozied in the Phillies organization”

  6. You guys are great. I have no independent knowledge and no real draft sense but I really enjoy the process and diamond in the rough search. Here is my too long for anyone but me to care opinion.
    ‘Big’ Greene should sign for slot and be LF in GCL. As a LB recruit I would think he would be athletic.
    Quinn is Comp pick so no pick next year if he does not sign right? I figure that means he will be slot as a partial overdraft anyway. Figure 2B at GCL and see how it goes.
    Martinez, after a bad year, should sign. Seems a bit high for him since he could not hit. 3B at GCL if Frankol up to NYP. Reminds me of Mattair, risk hitter but decent fielder, but older.
    Morgan fits the Phils LHP early requirement after May and Morgado. Easy sign for slot or less at NYP.
    Asche can actually hit which is nice but moves from 3B which is bad. 1B or DH at NYP?
    Walding has projection talent and comparison to Goeddel is nice but could stay at SS. Would really like him signed and at SS in GCL. Likely not signed until August though. Will depend on the two lower picked SS.
    Wright fills power attempt at C. See if all these C types stick around to catch bullpen sessions for the next 4 years. Maybe power develops but will be useless if he does not stay at C.
    Giles seems like excellent pick. Huge velocity and nothing else. Not sure how much they want to spend for him. Likely a follow to see if he is worth the number he is asking.
    Wright throws hard for LHP so that is good.
    Why no one knows anything about Logan Moore and he was picked this high makes me wonder if they wanted the other Moore (HS catcher drafted ~12 rounds later) and put wrong name in by accident?
    Figure Overbey was very unlikely to sign but gketch gives some significant hope. Would be great if he would come cheaper than expected. As a QB he must have some athleticism and smarts. Lottery pick type.
    ‘Little’ Greene will be the most expensive player if signed. He has a huge ego and poor contact seems like another lottery pick type. If they sign the other 3 SS above him I doubt they go after him.
    Rios is interesting pick given Rodriguez’s performance. Super young. Need to sign him.
    Murray fits the Schwimer/Rosenberg/Stutes type pick. Great this late and Phillies should be able to point to them as examples. I doubt he goes to Lakewood right away.
    Ford have been drafted many times but higher this time. Probably figures to take the money. Not sure where he plays with all the other 3B.
    Garvey will not sign.
    Black is the Hanzawa type. Good fielder to move around the system for 4 years.
    Therrien hopefully has upside so always want to sign and see. Not a total unknown since drafted previously.
    Hillman is very redundant to rest of draft.
    Hill is another org C.
    Lavin appears to be filler OF.
    ‘Correct’ Moore is likely second most difficult sign. With all the other C in system I wonder if Phils go overslot for him. Susac comparison seems reasonable (from draft perspective). Able to stay at C and has reasonable chance to hit. I’d put him high on the overslot sign list.

    No reason for me to comment on any others. Thanks to everyone for all the comments and research. I find it very enjoyable.

      1. Qujinn was selected with the Washington 2nd round pick received for the loss of Jayson Werth, so in a sense it is a comp pick, so it appears, if nothing else, he got that right.

        1. Thanks. Awarded for Werth but the actual Washington pick, got it.
          Comp pick was Greene then right?

    1. I think there is enough on the table now that even if he doesnt sign, it can still be a pretty big win, and thats with 20 picks left, half of them probably being high school kids to add to the list.

      Greene will be a tough sign, but Jason Churchill at ESPN mentioned he’s willing to listen to offers and sign if its right, so its not an impossible task, and I have to think the Phillies have done their homework there and have a good idea what the price will be

      1. “I have to think the Phillies have done their homework there and have a good idea what the price will be”

        I sure hope you are right PP. But so far when we have said that the previous 2 years the dog frequently ate their homework (Stewart, Susac, Frazier, etc).

    2. Totally uneducated opinion, but Walding sounds just as good as Greene to me. I bet he didn’t get as much coverage because he was injured early in the season and it looks like he has a strong college commitment.

  7. If Michael Marshall is the son of Dr. Mike Marshall, it will be interesting to see what his delivery looks like. I’m sure a lot of people here remember Dr. Mike. He won the Cy Young one year after pitching over 200 innings . . . as a reliever. He studied kinesiology and figured out how to throw a lot of innings with minimal stress on the shoulder and elbow. If you watch the really great pitchers, you’ll notice that they pronate as they release their fastball. That’s one of the things he stresses as it takes tons of stress off the ulnar collateral ligament of the elbow. Guys who try to snap off pitches with the opposite rotation are just begging for TJ surgery.

    So, if it’s that Dr. Mike Marshall, his delivery will be quite unorthodox most likely. You can look up Marshall’s website and watch his pitching videos. Really interesting stuff. And most baseball guys in the league won’t usually sign anyone who uses his methods. Hard to fathom why, except that there’s a lot of good ol’ boy in most pitching coaches and managers.

    1. Did some digging, and it turns out, ironically enough, that he is the son of A Mike Marshall that played in the major leagues, but not THAT Mike Marshall.

      Michaels dad was actually an all star for the Dodgers in 1984 and has 2 WS rings, not that I looked that up on Wikipedia or anything ; )

    2. According to the limited stuff I have seen, he is a 1B, so if he needs a delivery for a throw to 2B he can watch film of Howard.

  8. It should be apparent that the Phils have listened to we fans ….and took seriously our demand & advice to grab infield guys aplenty. (!) Along with some interesting catchers plus a sprinkling of pitchers none of whom appears to sparkle at first sight

    They did what they needed to do, i.e, acknowledge the present team’s lack of good or better replacements for several members of the team who seem to be aging more quickly than expected. That the future position players for filling in those hitters/fielders at the ML level are lacking necessitated drafting for need as opposed to the “best player available.” (My personal belief is that “need” very frequently outweighs the best player take, especially after the first 7-8 picks on the board of MLB) Thus SSs and 3rd basemen. Some interesting catchers, too. Power up in LF (?) w 1st pick.

    With so many SSs and 3rd basemen, finding the best for those two openings might require a shifting around among them, also depending on which one are signed.

    I LOVE this draft. Position players have become a weakness in the system in favor of starting pitching the past 2-3 years. The ranks must be filled with developing prospects.

    The Phils answered the call.

    Now…on to signing the most promising…

    Thanks Marti and Reuben.

  9. Do not think they listened to the Fans. I think that this year with all the arms, they were able to focus on Hitters because of the Rotation and the 6 good Starters in the Minors.

    1. Time will tell but at first glance not an impressive draft . Most picks rated below the BA and PG rankings with Harold Martinez a real reach @ # 90 ..NR in top 200 by BA

      1. Not that this is a good barometer of the draft, but to counter your point, the Phils took three guys ranked in BA’s top 100 (Greene, Greene, and Quinn) and four guys ranked between 100 and 200 (Morgan, Asche, Murray, and Moore). There are 30 teams, so if each took an equal number of the top 100, then each would select 3.3 (just like the Phils did) and 6.7 of the top 200 (just like the Phils did). So don’t complain about the Phils’ picks’ ranking in the BA list as, in aggregate, the Phils were right in line with where one would expect.

        I expect you are disappointed that the Phils didn’t take anyone higher than #73 on BA’s list. I suppose that is the nature of the Phils not targeting the guys who have more hype. To me this is a fairly typical Phils draft in that there are a lot of off-the-radar guys with big tools but not necessarily the performance to match or a high level of refinement.

        1. Yes, exactly. The problem isn’t who the Phillies draft each year, they always do a good job of identifying and drafting talent all the way into the deep rounds 30’s and 40’s. I thought the guys they added this year made sense and they drafted plenty of talent.

          The issue is always who do they actually SIGN. That is where the rubber meets the road…or not. I sincerely hope the Andrew Susac experience will push them to sign Riley Moore.

      2. FWIW, Harold Martinez was the pre-season #37 college player, according to the Baseball America handbook. In the early season, I saw his name associated with the 39th pick in mock drafts.

      3. I think this will be a fun class to watch once the signings are complete for exactly that reason. So many unknowns will tell us a lot about our scouts ability to recognize talent. I like Roman Quinn and I like Martinez if only for his athleticism.

        That video of Mitchell Walding in a batting cage was pathetic. I’ve never seen so many horrible swings in a batting cage so I hope there is more impressive footage of him some where else.

      4. I pray for the life of me the RAJ and company were not sitting up the past two days picking guys off of BA and PG’s top 200 rankings. I’m pretty sure that their scouts make their own rankings. 😉

  10. I found a small article on Cody Fick….seems to be one of those “knows how to play baseball” type guys, but at least if he searches his name up on here he’ll see something ahaha. http://www.thedailydugout.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=530:player-report-evansvilles-cody-fick&catid=52:the-clubhouse&Itemid=76

    I’m a fan of Walding, based off solely what I read about him. If one of these SS guys works out, then it’s pretty freakin’ awesome I’d say.

    Can’t wait to follow the Tyler Greene sweepstakes.

  11. You’d expect a player’s ranking on BA or Keith Law not to matter much, but in 2008, we took the most highly ranked guys in recent memory, and that ended up being our best draft…so idk what to think

  12. You know I’m not one to complain, but, as much emphasis as some put on a players’ age some place,Placing the Player’s date of birth might be helpful as some of the JC guys are more of the HS age, and some more of the College Age. Also the whole Bats-Throws thing.

    I have Matthew Holland as from Texas A&M Corpus Christi and not just plain old Texas A&M. Sort of like the whole Tuscaloosa thing.

    Overbey- Mr. Football 2 years in a row in Tennesee, must be a good’un.

    CSNPHILLY says that Riler Moore is one of a set of Quadruplets. Looking for something on the other 3.

    1. Baseball is the Soccer of Japan .. Biggest sport there .. US has a huge Baseball fan base but crowd intensity isn’t as good as Japanese .. In America, crdows get loud during intense moments at any sport game (NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL) except in the NCAA where crdows and schools cheer on there team all the time (Penn State Chant 110 thousand people)

  13. 1. First, i can confirm that PP absolutely had Roman Quinn’s name before the draft even started. I like that pick if he can stay at SS (or 2B).

    2. Really like this draft. Thought we could have got Martinez 2 rounds lower but then I thought we stole Asche 2 rounds later so all good.

    3. I believe Quinn signs relatively easily. I figure we sign at least one and hopefully 2 of Walding, Overbey and Greene.

    4. Why did Colton Murray, a college junior rated by BA as like 110 or so fall to us in the 13th round? Hope we sign him.

    5. Loved, loved the position emphasis.

    6. No college senior picks until the mid-late teen rounds. Score.

    7. I’m blase on the college catchers taken. Would love to get Riley Moore signed but we really shouldn’t get our hopes up in that regard.

    1. Good stuff. Upon further reflection, the kid from East Carolina has a little promise, especially when you look at his power numbers in the season of the dead bat.

      Here’s a bio I was emailed”

      Earned second-team All C-USA honors as a junior after starting all 62 games behind the plate … Two-time Johnny Bench Watch List Candidate (2010-11) … Led the Pirates in home runs for the second-straight season with 13, which ranked third in C-USA (all games) … Recorded five game-winning RBI with three in C-USA play during ECU’s final at-bat on home runs (Memphis/Feb. 26, UAB/Apr. 3 and Marshall/May 6) … Recorded a pair of multi-home runs games (Buffalo and UAB) … Belted his fourth career grand slam against Campbell (Mar. 1) … Recorded 12 multi-hit and 10 multi-RBI games … Threw out 44.1 percent (19-of-43) base runners ranking third in C-USA (all games) … Ranked among the league leaders (all games) in total bases (fifth), slugging percentage (ninth) ..

  14. I hope I’m wrong but it may be a walding or Greene sign. Not both type deal. They’ll prob negotiate right up till the deadline ala Frazier/ pointer/musser/Walter situation.

  15. Looking back at some older material on this site, in 2008, it appears that the Phillies spent about $6.5 million on the draft class, which included $2.4 million to Hewitt and Collier. In 2009 – 2010, it seemed like spending dipped rather significantly from 2008 levels. I realize that spending isn’t everything, but this year, I’d really like to see the Phillies make a commitment similar to 2008.

    I’d obviously like to see them ink the top guys, and then at least 3 of Walding, Overbey, Greene and Moore. Hoping for at least 3 of those guys may be overly opimistic, but without a first round pick, there is more money available to spread around.

    1. They didn’t have a 1st round pick in 2009 either, and even with the Brody Colvin signing they came in last in spending that year. I am hoping that based on their draft they plan on signing most of these guys. I am also hoping that examples like Andrew Susac and Keenyn Walker helps demonstrate to the GM and Ownership that the scouts for the Phillies have been doing a great job and spending a bit more money for overslot bonuses would be a good investement.

  16. I see a comment ‘guys has pathetic swing’ . there are so many guys who have weird swings who can hit, going to a hitting coach my son has improve a ton and his swing is nuts to me, but it works for him. look at how small a stroke chase takes , never saw anyone do that before but it works for him, so dont understand that comment,

  17. I dont necessarily expect them to get to 6.5 million, but i hope they fall somewhere in between that and their normal 3.5 – 4. Maybe somewhere in the 5 million to 5,5

  18. Was just reading Bob Brookover’s colomn on Philly.com and he said that Wolever was talking about the possibility that they move Walding from SS to 3B which would then keep a space for another SS to be signed since you have AT LEAST 2 possible shortstops that will be changing positions. It’s been talked about that Quinn might play SS, 2B or CF, and now Walding potentially moving to 3B, I’m sure not all the 3B drafted will stick there, a la Pat Burrell when he was drafted.

  19. Quick Ryan Duke comment – I am a South Carolina grad so saw him pitch for Oklahoma in last year’s CWS against the Gamecocks. Duke was hyped as a stud closer who had run into issues (DUI arrest) earlier in the yr. Gamecocks got to him in one of the games and guess we didn’t see the shutdown closer stuff. His bio from the Sooners’ site shows his numbers dipped a bit his last yr. in Norman.
    http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/duke_ryan00.html

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