Top 30 Accountability: Reader Top 30 and Community Lists

2013 Reader Top 30

Of all the pieces in this series this is the least about looking back at the individual players and the most about looking at the community and the discussion generated here.  I think the community’s list is on of the best in recent years and shows the growing knowledge of Philadelphia prospect watchers as a whole.  Here is your 2013 Reader Top 30 prospects.

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci
  11. Aumont
  12. Gillies
  13. Watson
  14. Greene
  15. Valle
  16. De Fratus
  17. Collier
  18. Wright
  19. Cozens
  20. Hernandez
  21. Gueller
  22. Walding
  23. Pullin
  24. Giles
  25. Colvin
  26. Rupp
  27. Dugan
  28. Lino
  29. Green
  30. Brady

As a bonus some of you submitted your own personal Top 30s and I saved them here for you to go back and look at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aq9atTaYBdErdDFibUpEVENleTB0Mnk1X0dSb19DSWc#gid=1

 

Sneak Peak: The next series up for me is a break down of the major positional and pitching tools in the organization.

Unknown's avatar

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

28 thoughts on “Top 30 Accountability: Reader Top 30 and Community Lists”

  1. I feel good about my top 10 other than that I went way out on a limb with Wright, had the Larry Greene failure, Gillies and Valle probably shouldn’t have been ranked, Cesar Hernandez way low. All in all the back end of my rankings were a mess.

    Like

    1. Yeah- I’d add Dugan and Ruff to the other issues you mention (especially Dugan considering what he did last season once healthy), but that’s actually a pretty decent list.

      Like

      1. I’m not upset about where Ruf was placed, really the only guy I put above him who doesn’t profile to be worth more is Martin and that’s still kind of a tossup. I’m still not comfortable in saying that Ruf is an everyday player. Dugan I definitely missed on as well but I’m not as high on him as others. Don’t know if he’ll make my top 10 this year but if he does he’ll be towards the back of it.

        Like

    1. I wouldn’t worry about that. He is probably a Philly now and in the future with a possibility of producing 30 home runs next year.

      Like

  3. If I recall correctly–I’d have to go back and look at the comments of each individual vote to reconstruct it–several of the more wrongheaded rankings (like Gillies at #12) were largely the result of large late-night voting surges that we attributed at the time to the Troll Who We $hall Not Name. I think the list might have looked even better without those anomalies.

    Like

  4. How does Tocci keep his ranking with below average stats? And why is Green five spots ahead of Cozens? Cozens had 25 less AB,5 less games, 65 hits to Greens 68,2B 19 to Greens 20,3B 2 to Greens 1, R 50 to 52, HR 9 to Greens 13, RBI 35 to 41, SO 64 to Greens 91? What would 25 more at bats do for Cozens? If Cozens struck all 25 at bats he would still have less SO’s! Don’t get me wrong Green had a great season, lead the division in 13 HR’s, and other categories. I just think both Cozens and Green should be back to back on the top 30 ! I believe Cozens would have passed Green in HRs and total stats with fewer SO’s with 25 more at bats! Don’t forget these were two high school kids a year ago competing with the top College draft picks, not too bad for two 19 year old’s

    Like

    2. This list is from before the season. Obviously Larry Greene Jr. is going to drop–I think the big argument is going to be whether he falls back to the 20-30 range or drops off the list entirely. I suspect Tocci will be ranked around the same spot though, if not higher, based on the fact that he played the entire season at A ball as a 17 year old, by all accounts played excellent defense, and showed signs of developing good contact skills.

      Like

    3. Legit – get your Green’s correct before you rant. Larry Greene is five spots ahead of Cozens but you cited Z Green’s stats.

      Like

      1. My bad! Worst yet would be Larry Green at 14, I should have caught that. Last years instructional and this years spring puts cozens stock much higher !

        Like

    1. Which raises an interesting question – why the hell wasn’t he vaccinated? Nice family, but, man, you’d think he’d have gotten that routine shot.

      Like

      1. The vaccine tends to only keep you good for 3-6 years and most people have that last booster shot in their early teens. More people get it before going to college and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a couple vaccines that players are behind on because there isn’t the college vaccine requirement (not a huge excuse and teams should probably force it, but that seems the likely explanation to me).

        Like

        1. My sister got it earlier this year, she was vaccinated as a kid but it wears off, as you said. The problem seems to be that parents are refusing to give their kids the MMR shot, because of bogus autism claims, which is leading to more outbreaks among children, which in turn is leading to adult exposure. My kid’s pediatrician made me get the MMR booster as a precaution last year. (This must be the first time a Phuture Phillies thread has gotten diverted into epidemiology.)

          Like

          1. Yeah and just for clarification this is the pertussis vaccine that my family has had to get because my wife works at the Allentown School District. True story we had to go in 08 and it was during the playoff game vs. Milwaukee and i was watching the game through the Dr. office window into a barber shop across the street. missed the Great AB by Myers and the Vic GS.

            As for the list above we actually did pretty good as a collective.

            Like

  6. Here are the possibilities that describe Larry Greene, the season he just had, and what to expect.

    A.) he has some form of performance degrading behavioral condition (open for reader interpretation).
    B.) he doesn’t like baseball or care if he gets any better (already cashed $1M).
    C.) he cares but just flat stinks at every aspect of the game
    D.) things look bad on the surface but he’s about to put it all together and turn into a beast.
    E.) he was never really good in the first place and was scouted purely on his ability to hit batting practice pitches 500 feet.

    If I had to guess, and be charitable, I would say E. In other words, the Mike Mamula defense…not his fault the team drafted him so high. The scouts convinced themselves that a kid recruited to play football at Alabama must be a dynamic athlete.

    No way a top 30.

    Like

    1. The national publications, which talk to every team’s scouts, rated Greene as one of the best pure power bats in the draft. So it wasn’t like the Phillies just overreached ridiculously. A lot of people liked the pick at the time. It was a lottery ticket, and it hasn’t paid off. It happens. It’s certainly not Greene’s fault, although he hasn’t helped his own case with the fitness issues. Still, it’s important, before you start casting aspersions on his character, to keep in mind that we are talking about a 20 year old kid. Did you always make good long term decisions when you were that age? Probably not!

      Like

        1. I don’t disagree with this. The Phillies had a draft pick that wasn’t high enough to have a high probability chance of hitting more than a single. They need guys that are better than that — at least starter quality, hopefully more, so they took a gamble on a lower probability guy who could have turned out to be a double or even a HR. As will happen the majority of times with such gambles, they lost. That is not a bad thing. It likely was worth taking the risk. This just emphasizes why you have to spend all your $ and sign all your picks (draft and internationally) so the odds of one of your gambles hitting is higher with more bets. I’m not saying it was stupid to draft Greene, just that it now seems 95% certain that the pick was a bust.

          Like

      2. I doubt very much that they had him rated that high, he was and is a one tool player, from every scouting report i read, before he was drafted, they reach for this guy, they knew he couldnt play outfield, couldnt run, had a chance to have some power,he was and still is a batting practice monster. Scouts said as he got older the only positon he could handle was first, he only hit 313 in northwest league, if i remember right. yes he could have been drafted , but not at 39 too many other players better, my god the scouts compared him to a 239 hitter who played i believe for the reds, branely or something like that, power, but doublted he would hit for average, they blew the pick, pure and simple.and part of scouting is looking into the kids makeup, and his makeup is he doesnt work hard to stay in shape,

        Like

        1. This guy http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/branyru01.shtml

          BTW Greene played CF in HS and was a 50 runner at the time of the draft. BA had him as the #75 draft prospect in 2011 and the Phillies took him 39. Certainly a reach at the time (the guy at #73 is Roman Quinn). But there are a ton of guys on that list in front of him that didn’t sign or haven’t been good either.

          Their Greene report:
          Greene isn’t quite one-dimensional, but it’s close. He’s a physical beast at 6-foot-2, 235 pounds, and one evaluator compared his power to that of Russell Branyan, another south Georgia lefthanded hitter. Green was dominating and putting on huge power displays against modest pitching, pushing himself into first-round consideration. However, scouts who saw him last summer recall he struggled mightily with velocity at the East Coast Pro Showcase. Greene is somewhat stiff but is an average runner, which should give him a chance to play left field, but some scouts think he’ll wind up as more of a first base/DH type. Greene’s value is mostly in his bat and well above-average raw power. He’s likely to put on a display in individual workouts for teams prior to the draft.

          Like

      3. No crying in baseball. Cash a check for a million bucks, show up out of shape 2 years in a row then drop a 600 OPS with a 40% strike out rate while playing a horrendous left field….it deserves to be picked on.

        Like

  7. I started pushing hard for Dugan around 14, if I recall, so feel pretty good about that. By contrast, I hated that Pettibone got so much love, and notwithstanding his limited ceiling, I think 8 was pretty fair, given that he showed he is a legit big leaguer, if only as someone who can soak up innings.

    Like

  9. As one of the Gillies supporters (and not speaking for any others), I ranked him on his potential which still has massive risk. He may have attitude issues, does have injuries issues that could certainly affect his speed, and now has hit terrible in AA and AAA while revamping his swing. ‘

    He still profiles as a plus defender in CF with a good arm. His speed is critical to his possible success but obviously his power, contact, and plate discipline are what is going to determine his future. I really cannot fault anyone who ranks him as a non-prospect but I think his potential (which he is EXTREMELY unlikely to reach) is, in my opinion, a possible All-Star CF. I have no idea how to weigh what I see as huge potential with such a small chance to reach it.

    Like

Comments are closed.