This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season. My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong. The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression. Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.
The first thing I see when looking at this list is that all 5 of these guys did not step forward. Four out of the five dealt with some sort of physical set back (injury/illness). In reality it comes down to you just can’t predict a lot of things and sometimes it all breaks the wrong way. This certainly does not excuse us from our duty of making good analysis, but we do need to acknowledge things out of our control. As always the original list is here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.
5. Ethan Martin
Martin has a ton of upside if he can prove his new control is real, though the lack of a good changeup is concerning. This ranking reflects the raw stuff that Martin has; a plus plus fastball, a plus breaking ball, and another average breaking ball to pair with what profiles as an average changeup. I believe the new command is legitimate and even if the changeup does not develop Martin as at least a dominant reliever. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 1-5