Hot or Not

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The final edition of “hot or not”, spanning from August 22–September 1.  Zach Collier has made the decision as to whether to keep him on the 40 increasingly difficult with his strong finish…Quietly, Dylan Cozens had a very solid season in Williamport…Larry Greene ends the season where it began, on the not hot list…Drew Anderson’s numbers this season for WIlliamsport were as good as anyone in the organization…I am nervous about Adam Morgan and not convinced he is healthy after watching several of his post injury starts…After a fairly miserable season, Kyle Simon finished stronged…I have always liked Mike Nesseth. He knows how to pitch, and will be a major leaguer…The 2013 season of Kenny Giles has to go down as one of this season’s true disappointments.

Hot Hitters: Deivi Gruillon (.400); Zach Collier (.354); Willie Carmona (.333, 8R 6RBI); Aaron Altherr (.333); Andrew Knapp (.333); Dylan Cozens (.325, 9R 2HR 8RBI); Art Charles (.324); Michael Martinez (.322); Robinson Torres(.320, 5RBI, 2SB); Maikel Franco (.318, 9R 4HR 8RBI); Honorable Mention: Perkins, Lino

Not Hot Hitters: Jon Roof (.040); Nick Ferdinand(.105); Logan Moore (.111); Justin Parr (.115); Trey WIlliams(.133); Carlos ALonso (.139); Larry Greene (.143); Wilmer Oberto(.160); Albert Cartwright (.172); Sebastian Valle (.172)

Hot Starters: Mark Leiter (11IP 9H 0ER 4BB 16K, 2 starts);Julio Reyes (6IP 0H 0ER 1BB 4K); Shane Martin (10IP 5H 0ER 2BB 7K, 2 starts); Juan Sosa (6IP 2H 0ER 1BB 7K); Tyler Viza (8IP 4H 0ER 2BB 8K, 2 starts); Drew Anderson (14IP 10H 2ER 3BB 8K); Severino GOnzalez (7IP 4H 1ER 3BB 6K); Raul Valdes (12IP 10H 2ER 2BB 7K, 2 starts); Jon Prosinski (10IP 8H 2ER 4BB 5K, 2 starts); Ethan Stewart (12IP 11H 3ER 5BB 9K, 2 starts)

Not Hot Starters:Tom Cochran (5.1IP 7H 5ER); Greg SMith (9.2IP 18H 10ER 3BB 7K, 2 starts); Adam Morgan (5.1IP 10H 5ER 5BB 5K, 2 starts); Mitch Guellar (9IP 11H 7ER 4BB 4K, 2 starts); Perci Garner (9.2IP 11H 7ER 10BB 7K, 2 starts); Ryan Demmin (12.2IP 17H 10ER 4BB 7K, 2 starts); Mitch Guellar (9IP 11H 7ER 4BB 4K; 2 starts)

Hot Relievers:Kyle Simon (7.1IP 4H 0ER 0BB 3K, 2SV); Jay Johnson (7IP 1H 0ER 4BB 8K); Mike Nesseth (7IP 2H 0ER 1BB 2K); Steven Inch (7IP 3H 0ER 3BB 5K); Mauricio Robles (5IP 2H 0ER 1BB 3K, SV); Luis Garcia (4IP 0H 0ER 0BB 2K); Cody Forsythe(4IP 3H 0ER 0BB 3K, SV); Honorable Mention: Aumont, Neris, O’Sullivan

Not Hot Relievers: Jordan Guth (4IP 9H 9ER 5BB 1K); Lee Ridenhour (3IP 7H 6ER 1BB 0K); Kenny Giles (3.1IP 6H 5ER 6BB 3K); Lino Martinez (2.2IP 6H 4ER 5BB 5K); Mike MacDougal (4.2IP 4H 5ER 6BB 6K); Jon Musser (6.2IP 9H 6ER 6BB 3K); Jason Motta (3.1IP 8H 3ER 3BB 4K); Colby SHreve (5.2IP 7H 5ER 9BB 6K)

15 thoughts on “Hot or Not”

  1. Gotta admit, Dylan Cozens is one of my favorite prospects to follow. Seems like he has potential to be a five tool played if he doesn’t get too big. I know he needs to work on his fielding a little, but has a good build for a corner OF. Next year will be big for him.

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    2. He improved his average (.266), ISO (.193), OPS (.806) and K rate (22.6 percent) from a good GCL season, and his BB rate remained in double-digits (10.6 percent). Zach Green finished with more HR (13 to 8), but consider this: For those extra five dingers, Green struck out 26 more times than Cozens did.

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      1. Green leads league in runs, doubles, home runs, total bases, and slugging, and 2nd in rbi’s. And is still hitting .250. Now that’s a very solid season

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  2. Thanks Gregg for doing this all season. I think the most impressive thing about Franco is his consistency this season.

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  3. While I am not a physician and do not pretend to be, I just have a bad feeling about Adam Morgan’s shoulder. I suspect that his rehab this year is just a delay of an inevitable surgery.

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    1. shoulder injuries with pitchers terrify me because they don’t have anywhere near the same rate of success as other injuries. They are to me easily the scariest pitcher injury. When a pitcher gets seriously injured these days i’m almost happy to hear it’s Tommy John because despite the long recovery time it does have such a good level of succeeding.

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    2. I’m not sure if everybody already knows this, but I just read yesterday that he left his last start with “shoulder tightness”. I thought he just came out early because he was getting hit around.

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      1. …and that hurts. Probably drops him ten spots in our prospect rankings – wow, our pitching core got decimated this year. Injuries, illness, and failure to develop – just a dismal season from both the starters and the relievers. I get that Sev Gonzalez came out of the VSL to dominate, but that’s only one guy, and by all accounts a pitchability one at that. Just about as bad a year pitching wise as you can imagine.

        I used to think scouting and player development was a system strength. I still think we have better than average scouts, but the development staff dropped the ball this year. Pitching is the big red flag, but i have a few quibbles with the hitting instruction as well. This organizations bent for aggressive hitting could be a long term killer. Way too many strikeouts, and too few walks lead to seeing a lot of pitches out of the zone which are harder to get a good drive on. That said, we’ve had a number of good hitting stories and there is some hope on that front for long term.

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        1. Good points. If still hurt, I would have to imagine Morgan will not be helping the Phils as a SP until 2015 at the earliest, dropping him down the prospect list.

          This year, basically, many of the Top 30 guys took steps backwards or otherwise did not progress. Obviously, there were some positives (Franco, Asche, Pettibone, Dugan, Rupp, Nesseth, Perkins, etc. apologies to those not mentioned), but it just seems like a a bad year overall.

          Using a simple, up, down, status quo grading system (based on what I have read, statistics, perceptions — obviously I did not go to every game, nor do I have a scout’s eye, so feel free to disagree) —

          Biddle — Status quo. Command problems, still top SP prospect, likely ETA mid-to-end
          2014
          Morgan — Down. Injured, not sure if he can contribute as SP until 2015
          Quinn — Down. Injured, had problems at the plate and in the field
          Joseph — Down. Injured, likely has to move off of C, may not have a position
          Martin — Down. Command problems. Won’t be a SP.
          Franco — Up. Awesome year, no complaints, hope development continues
          Asche — Up. Great year, no complaints
          Tocci — Up. Held his own, future looks bright, even if questions remain
          Pettibone — Status quo. Did what we needed him to in Philly, but injured
          Watson — Status quo. Had an ok year, tough to judge if the Phils wanted him to work
          on things that limited his effectiveness
          Greene — Double down. Pretty much a zero for most of the year
          Gueller — Down. Not really sure what to make of his performance vs. expectations, but
          I have to think the Phils scouts &coaches aren’t viewing this year as a complete
          success
          Aumont — Down. Pretty much worse-case scenario of a season, outside of an injury
          Ruf — Status quo. He is not an All-Star in waiting, but is useful at the MLB level
          Cozens — Up. No complaints. Good year.
          DeFratus — Up. Still needs to work on things, but did better than pretty much every
          RP that shuttled between the Phils and AAA, except Diekman.
          Pullin — Status quo. Did decent, needs to work on OBP like everyone else.
          Wright — Down. Injuries and ineffectiveness as SP doomed his year. Hoping switch to
          bullpen helps in 2014.
          Collier — Status quo. The Tale of Two Seasons (with the first one lasting 4 dreadful
          months). It seemed like he took a step backward, but he salvaged it the last 6 wks.
          Valle — Down. Really would like for 2013 to be over with. With Joseph out, he could
          have put his stamp on being one of the 2 C’s in Philly next year and instead,
          decided to give that opportunity to Rupp.
          Hernandez — Up. Should be a bench contributor in 2014.
          Walding — Down. Not a lot of contact at the plate, but he did walk a decent amt
          (roughly 12% walk rate)
          Green — Up. Can only be viewed as a successful year.
          Giles — Down. Can only be viewed as a disappointing year, but still a lot of optimism.
          Gillies — Down. Still not in the majors, even with all of the CF problems the Phils have.
          Not a good sign.
          Dugan — Up. Great year.
          Brady — Down. Injured.
          Altherr — Up. Good year, though inconsistent.
          Pujols — Up. Can only be viewed optimistically.
          Lino — Up. Good year. Next year will be the real test.

          That’s 11 Ups, 13 Downs, 6 Status Quos, with 4 of the top 5 down, and the number of ups are guys in A ball or below (Tocci, Cozens, Green, Altherr, Pujols, Lino) that while up, are nowhere near close to helping the Phils on the field.

          Not a good year for the organization overall. However, I will try to remain optimistic as there are positives to look at as well. Maybe that’s an idea for a column — what wrong wrong and another for what went right.

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        2. Don’t agree with you on past player development history, especially pitchers. For example who besides Madson have we developed as a closer in past 20-25 yrs. This is a pathetic track record. Can’t think of any other contending team that comes close to that dismal player development record. Our ” strength ” in scouting over past 10 yrs is college 1B who can’t get by AA and toolsy upside high school outfielders who we waste top 5 picks on who never develop. I would welcome a total overhaul of minor league staff.

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  4. Gregg…thank you for a wonderful job and constantly informative picture of the Phils minor leaguers. You have done a masterful job of informing, clarifying, and exposing the season’s events. KUDOS to you !!!! Thank you very much.

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  5. Willie Carmona…IMO, I look for him to be the break-out player in 2014. Oddly, similar physique to Pablo Sandoval and shuffled between 1st and 3rd with stints as a DH at times.
    Starting CLW at 23, but look for him to be promoted to Reading in mid-June timeframe, if he succeeds in April and May as I expect.
    Only concern is his weight-gain, he must table it and possibly hit the weight room, NPI..

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