Monthly Archives: September 2013

General Discussion – Week of 9-30-2013 – I Guess Seven Isn’t Rich Dubee’s Lucky Number Edition

Weekly Discussion

Dubee Burned. Dubee Snuffed Out. Dubee Clipped. That’s all I could think of.

The Phillies did end the year on a particularly low note, which lends itself to a particularly high draft pick. The list of #7s since the turn of the century includes Prince Fielder, Nick Markakis, Homer Bailey, Troy Tulowitski, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Minor and Matt Harvey. So yeah, there’s room to be excited.

And now, like a t-shirt soaked in Roy Halladay’s still-warm sweat hurled at your face on a steamy July afternoon, a reminder that the Phillies last #7 was Brad Brink. Just sayin’.

Discuss.

The Value of Losing in the new CBA

2013 Draft

There has been much debate this season about the value of losing.  In sports like basketball and football where a draft pick can make an immediate impact there has always been the philosophy that you want to be really horrible or really good and that anywhere in between punishes your ability to improve your club.  For years under the old CBA teams could circumvent the competitive balance measures such as free agent compensation by spending all the money they wanted in the draft and internationally while blatantly ignoring unenforceable edicts from the commissioner’s office. Continue reading The Value of Losing in the new CBA →

Report Card, Relief Pitchers, Lower Half

Other Stuff

Lakewood

Geoff Broussard, 23; Phils 23rd round pick in 2013 draft; 35 games between CLearwater and Lakewood; 4-3 with a 3.59ERA; 1 SV; 72.2IP 84H 12BB 61K; 5 HR allowed; 0.81 GO/AO; .285 opp. avg; .304 vs. LH, .273 vs. RH, .244 with RISP; 1.32WHIP; 1.5BB/7.6K per nine; Broussard pitched in just three games for CLearwater before being sent to Lakewood where he had a fairly good season. Grade: B-; 2014: Clearwater

Chris Burgess, 23; Phils 26th round pick in 2013 draft; 24 games between Williamsport and Lakewood; 2-5 with a 3.75ERA; 5 saves; 36IP 36H 17BB 28K; 3.06GO/AO; .265 opp. avg; 1.47WHIP; 4.2BB/7.0K per nine; For Lakewood; 20 games, 2-4 with 5 saves, 3.19ERA; 1.48WHIP; .274 opp. avg; Burgess, out of Oklahoma Christian, did a decent job transitioning to professional baseball. Grade: C+; 2014: Start at Lakewood but a quick call up if successful Continue reading Report Card, Relief Pitchers, Lower Half →

Florida Instructional League

Other Stuff

The FIL is finally under way, games have been rained out for the most part so far, so reports have been limited to following players on twitter.  Rather than break down the full list or just give you the list, here is somewhere in between.  I am going to highlight a couple names to watch in each group (I am also splitting the VSL/DSL players out separately).

Pitchers:

James Buckley, Ranfi Casimiro, Zach Cooper, Delvy Francisco, Mitch Gueller, Jordan Guth, Nic Hanson, Deton Keys, Manaure Martinez, Mark Meadors, Will Morris, Nefi OGando, Yacksel Rios, Feliberto Sanchez, Matt Southard, Jessen Therrien, Tyler Viza, Kevin Walter

Andrew Anderson – Anderson is coming off a good statistical season, but the reports seem to be more pitchability than stuff.  To me he seems like a Jonathan Pettibone starter kit with a decent fastball, a second above average pitch, a third average pitch, and a good clue how to use them.  It is the secondary pitches that are the ones to watch most in instructs. Continue reading Florida Instructional League →

JP Crawford #6 on Baseball America’s GCL Top 20

2. GCL

JP Crawford came in behind Austin Meadows, Lucas Giolito, Reese McGuire, Dominic Smith, and Franklin Berreto, all of who were higher draft picks or big international signings who put up big years.

BA notes that Crawford has good hand eye coordination and plate discipline.  His swing can get loopy but there is fringe average power potential.  Crawford is an average runner with good instincts and defensive profile that should stick at SS.  Crawford’s final GCL line was 167 PAs 8 2B 3 3B 1 HR 25BB 25K and a .345/.443/.465 triple slash line.

Any information on Crawford and other GCL Phillies from the BA chat at 1:30 PM ET will be posted here as well. Continue reading JP Crawford #6 on Baseball America’s GCL Top 20 →

General Discussion – Week of 9-23-2013

Weekly Discussion

Last week of the big club’s regular season. It will be so sad to see (free agent x) go sign with (rival club y). I will boo him when he returns in (month z) next season.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s anyone boo-worthy left on this roster. I suppose Carlos Ruiz could get some boos if he leaves for more money, but how would you be able to tell?

Discuss.

Report Card, Relief Pitchers, Upper Half

Other Stuff

Lehigh Valley–Note: There were so many call ups to Philadelphia in 2013, it was difficult to decide who should or should not be included on this list, so I included all relievers that either finished the year with Lehigh Valley or were called up to Philadelphia during the year except DeFratus, Diekman and Stutes. I consider the three of them (when healthy) to have solidified their status as major leaguers rather than members of Lehigh Valley at this stage. The final report, on lower level relievers will be out by the end of the week.

Phillippe Aumont, 24, Acquired from Seattle in 2010; 32 games for Lehigh Valley; 0-2 with a 4.04ERA; 2 saves; 35.2IP 29H 38BB 42K; 1.22 GO/AO; .230 opp avg; 1.88WHIP; 9.6BB/10.6K per nine; .231 vs. LH, .230 vs. RH, .190 with RISP; For Phillies: 19 games; 1-3 with a 4.19ERA, 1.91 WHIP, .308 opp. avg;. My expectation going into the season for Aumont is that he could be a critical part of the Phillies bullpen.  That expectation ended fairly quickly as it became obvious, Aumont continues to have little idea where the ball is going to go when it leaves his hand.  He was sent back to Lehigh Valley on multiple occasions, (with perceived attitude problems to boot)and pitched poorly for the ‘Pigs.  Although the opposition has a very hard time hitting him, there is generally no need with a walk rate approaching 10 per 9 innings. Grade: F; 2014: If he is back, which I think is very questionable, next year is clearly make it or break it with the organization. Continue reading Report Card, Relief Pitchers, Upper Half →

Top 30 Accountability: Reader Top 30 and Community Lists

2013 Reader Top 30

Of all the pieces in this series this is the least about looking back at the individual players and the most about looking at the community and the discussion generated here.  I think the community’s list is on of the best in recent years and shows the growing knowledge of Philadelphia prospect watchers as a whole.  Here is your 2013 Reader Top 30 prospects.

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: Reader Top 30 and Community Lists →

Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Lower Half

Other Stuff

The report card on Starting Pitchers in the lower half of the organization.  Remember, grades are against each pitchers pre-season expectations I had for them, not against each other.  Next up are Relief Pitchers (LV, Reading and Clearwater)…lots of names, so I am shooting for Tuesday.

Lakewood

Mark Leiter, 22, Phils 22nd round draft pick in 2013 draft; 16 games (4 starts) between GCL, Lakewood and Clearwater; 45IP 34H 13BB 50K; 0.71 GO/AO; .210 opp. avg; 1.04 WHIP; 2.6BB/10.0K per nine; Leiter pitched extremely well after being drafted this year, having success at each level he pitched at.  Grade: A; 2014: He will be 23 by the time the 2014 season starts and has done nothing to suggest he shouldnt start the season in CLearwater.

Miguel Nunez, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 26 games (22 starts); 10-8 with a 4.22ERA; 130IP 136H 38BB 80K; 5HR allowed; 0.82 GO/AO; .270 opp. avg; .315 vs. LH, .239 vs. RH, .265 with RISP; 1.34WHIP; 2.6BB/5.5K per nine;  Post All Star Break: 13 starts, 5-4 with a 3.59ERA. Nunez really came on as the year moved along and was perhaps Lakewood’s most consistent second half starter. He skipped over WIlliamsport to play in Lakewood this year and his 2013 should be considered very successful.  Grade: B; 2014: Clearwater Continue reading Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Lower Half →

Top 30 Accountability: 1-5

** My Top 30 Prospects

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

The first thing I see when looking at this list is that all 5 of these guys did not step forward.  Four out of the five dealt with some sort of physical set back (injury/illness).  In reality it comes down to you just can’t predict a lot of things and sometimes it all breaks the wrong way.  This certainly does not excuse us from our duty of making good analysis, but we do need to acknowledge things out of our control.  As always the original list is here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.

5. Ethan Martin

Martin has a ton of upside if he can prove his new control is real, though the lack of a good changeup is concerning.  This ranking reflects the raw stuff that Martin has; a plus plus fastball, a plus breaking ball, and another average breaking ball to pair with what profiles as an average changeup.  I believe the new command is legitimate and even if the changeup does not develop Martin as at least a dominant reliever. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 1-5 →