Phillies trade deadline primer

Its that time of year. With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline fast approaching, lots of rumors will start popping up. You’re going to hear a lot of stuff that is true, isn’t true, is half true, and everything else on both sides of the spectrum. With 30 MLB teams all looking to improve their teams either for now or later, lots of rumors will swirl. The Phillies, especially recently, have been very active at this time of the year. Two years ago, we had Clifton Phifer Lee round 1. Last year, we stole Roy Oswalt away from Houston. Who will it be this year? That’s not my focus here. Instead, I wanted to talk about the Phillies prospects who will probably be mentioned in deals, look at which guys we should hold on to, which guys we should trade, and what is going to happen. Check below the fold for all of the specifics.

What is the difference between the July 31 deadline and the August 31 deadline?

All teams have the ability to trade any player in their organization to any team they like (assuming said player doesn’t have a no trade clause) without worrying about the waiver process before August 1. After July 31st, any player you wish to trade must be passed through waivers. When you put a player on waivers, any other team can put in a claim. If a team claims a player, the two teams can attempt to work out a deal within a given time window. If no deal is reached, the team that waived the player can either let him go for nothing or pull the player back. If the player is pulled back, he can’t be traded again during that season. As you can see, pulling off a trade before July 31st is the preferred option and removes multiple layers of complexity. Teams can still pull off a move after July 31, with the Phillies notably doing this in 2008 when they acquired Scott Eyre in August, a move that would greatly impact the Phillies postseason run.

Will the Phillies make a move?

I don’t know. Ruben Amaro will never be called timid. He’s delivered big moves the past two seasons, and also delivered Roy Halladay over the winter in 2009. He’s generally been a big game hunter, landing Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt and hasn’t really filled in around the edges with the smaller deals Pat Gillick was famous for. The Phillies are one of the 3 best teams in baseball, you can argue they are the best team in the NL, and thus, not making a move does make some degree of sense. Lots of smart people have calculated the odds of a team winning a short series in the playoffs, and there is quite a bit of variance and luck involved. If the Phillies have a 60% chance of winning a random 5 game series against team X, the addition of one player (when factoring in the player he replaces) may only add 3-5% to a team’s chances of winning the series. That said, when a team has invested over $170M in payroll, you can bet Amaro is looking to give his team everything possible to win a World Series ring.

Who are the Phillies targeting?

As discussed above, Amaro tends to go big or go home. While you can argue that a little fine tuning around the edges is needed, that doesn’t fit the MO of our GM. I think it’s safe to say we’re not looking at Felix Hernandez or Ubaldo Jimenez, but I wouldn’t really rule out any extra talented every day player. When Amaro gets fixated on a player, he goes and gets him, no matter the cost. But it takes two to tango.

Who are the Phillies untouchable prospects?

This is a website devoted to Phillies prospects. I obsess over Phillies prospects more than anyone, and get attached to guys who become personal favorites, and I never want these guys traded. That said, no one in the system is untouchable, because there is no such thing as a “can’t miss” prospect. Every prospect is a future project. Some of them look a lot more likely to be stars, others seem a lot more rough around the edges. But all of them carry a value, just like a stock commodity. Like stock trading, the key is knowing which assets to hold on to, which to sell, and on the other side, which players in other organizations to “buy” at the right time. The same group of names will come up over the next 2 weeks: Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin, Trevor May, Sebastian Valle, and others. All of these guys have strengths, all of these guys have flaws. Trading all of them would be a huge risk, obviously.

But the important thing to look at is the depth of the Phillies farm system. We may lack a position player like Mike Trout or a pitcher like Matt Moore, but our depth from prospect #1 to prospect #20 is very strong. After our first 7 guys, we have 10 more guys who are interesting. Not to mention we have quite a few interesting 2011 draft picks who are unsigned, but who will likely be signed by this time next month. According to a reader/contributor here, Tyler Greene, arguably the third best prospect we drafted, is going to sign. I’m sure we’ll pick up a few interesting guys in Latin America. The point of this diatribe is that our system is very deep.

The Major League team is old, we can’t trade prospects

I’ve seen this sentiment in a number of places, and on the surface, I agree. However, a few things need to be considered. Outside of bullpen arms, the Phillies have no impact prospects at AA or above. The Phillies, over the last 5-6 years, haven’t made a habit out of rushing position player prospects to the majors. Singleton, just 19, is probably 3-4 years away from being a regular on the Phillies team, barring some crazy development. That doesn’t mean he should be traded for just anyone. However, this brings up another angle. Prospects can be traded for proven major league players in their prime. The Indians couldn’t afford losing Cliff Lee to free agency, they didn’t feel they could afford him long term, so they traded him to the Phillies in 2009. The Phillies turned a few prospects into Cliff Lee. At this point, none of those prospects are coming close to replicating what Cliff Lee is giving the Phillies.

Yes, we can’t stock the roster with 15 guys making $20M per year. But large market teams who are willing to max out their payroll aren’t going to rely on rookies to fill key lineup spots. The current major league roster is older, but none of these players (those who will be here next year, ie, not Ibanez) are declining just yet. Howard, Utley, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Victorino, and Rollins are still in the prime or the tail of their prime years, and are likely to be there for at least 3-4 more years. As these players grow old and come off the books, they will be replaced by new players. The Phillies have stepped up payroll wise. They are no longer a small market club in any sense, and they aren’t acting like one. Small market clubs cling to all of their prospects, dreaming of putting together a team of cheap players who win a World Series for pennies. This rarely ever happens.

Conclusion

You may misinterpret this as me saying “trade everyone”, and that isn’t my message. I wouldn’t be too keen on trading 2 of the Big 7 for Mike Adams. All I’m saying is, the Phillies are going to leverage their assets to maximize the 25 man roster heading in to the playoffs. This is a special team, with a potentially historic pitching staff, and it would be a shame to look back in 5 years and say “we could have had player X, but we wouldn’t give up prospect Y” and that being the difference between winning a pennant and winning a World Series. When the inevitable trade is made, just take a deep breath and let the dust settle before we pick it apart.

145 thoughts on “Phillies trade deadline primer

  1. Colvin, JC and Singleton is a deal for Matt Kemp? One can dream of seeing him batting 5th in Philly

  2. Nice work, as usual. No mention of Kemp šŸ˜‰ And wasn’t Matt “deep into the night” Stairs a post-deadline pickup in ’08 also?

  3. Dave Murphy said the Phils are aggressively going after Beltran, Any ideas what that might cost us? With the thought that the Mets will pick of his contract

    1. Not too much. Beltran’s contract stipulates no draft choice compensation when he is a free agent. If someone pays all his salary plus throws in a couple of B level prospects it might do it. The Phillies would not be looking to pay all his salary, so they may not be a great fit.

      1. Even though he has that weird no arbitration clause, the fact that there are a few teams interested in him could drive up the price.

  4. Yo let’s trade blanton, ibanez, and lidge for matt kemp. the dodgers would take that right?

      1. but who would want him? he’s an injury-prone end-of-the-rotation guy who makes $10 million.

        1. Hes a end of the phillies(our) rotation, but for some other teams he would be a top pitcher in most other clubs!

            1. Royals (1)
              Pirates (1 or 2)
              Astros (2 behind Wandy)
              Twins (their whole staff is made of Joe Blantons)
              Cubs (2 behind Garza)

              Now look at these club’s records and you will see why he would slot in there. That being said he is a #3 when on and a serviceable #4-5 innings eater the rest of the time.

            2. What? Ryan Dempster >>>>>>>>> Joe Blanton
              Sane Carlos Zambrano >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Joe Blanton

            3. This is the reply to Matt Winks.

              You kidding me right?

              For the Pirates, Correia and Karstens are better than Blanton.

              For the Astros, Brett Myers is better than Blanton.

              For the Twins, Baker and Liriano are better than Blanton.

              For the Cubs, for sure Dempster is better than Blanton.

  5. Correction! You will find out about shortly!
    Tyler Greene is the BEST Propect drafted this year

  6. Before making an impulsively stupid move to get a mediocre bullpen arm, why not see what you have in Michael Schwimer?

    It befuddles me that they avoid bringing him up yet they complain about having bullpen depth. If he’s not ready then he’s not ready but atleast see what you have in him.

    Does anyone feel the same way?

    1. I think he can’t be worse than Herndon/Baez, but my thinking on it is 1. He has not been able to handle left handed hitters very well (4.12 ERA VS) and 2. The Phillies wouldn’t want to bring him up and just plop him on the bench and only use him for a once per week experiment. 3. He’s also not on the 40 man roster, so if he were to come up the decision of who to bump off the roster would come into play…….I mean have your pick of Baez/Herndon-underperformance or Blanton/Contreras-injury.

    2. You are right Swim should at least get a look. I don’t know why teams get into these hissing contest. I would not want a player who doesn’t want to advance

  7. Thanks again PP!
    Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin, Trevor May, Sebastian Valle and the next two of the top Seven Are? The “Interesting 10” atm are PP?

    I agree completely. What matters is the Wins on the MLB field, and to continue getting them.

    All the current Trade Targets most likely will take someone from the Interesting 10 or the unmentioned 2 from the Top Seven.

    This said – Singleton was mentioned in a Rumor for Adams – who has the most value going forward with team control or the rumored Trade Targets.

      1. No way Mitchell has to much value , great fielder–good routes to the ball,speed, hits with power and has shown he can play infield, the way he’s coming they would be nuts to trade him.

  8. Two items from the BA chat:
    SteveB (Philly): So Jarred Cosart looked great in Futures game, people talk in glowing terms about his arm but… where are the results (not that he’s been terrible)? Just young? Head? Health? What’s missing?

    Ben Badler: Terrific arm, consistently in the mid-90s while flashing an above-average curveball and an improving changeup. My big concern with him is his durability. He’s coming off a great showing in the Futures Game that every team in the league saw, he’s pitched well in the Florida State League this year ā€” if I’m the Phillies and I get a good big leaguer as part of a package for Cosart, I’d try to sell high right now. They pulled it off perfectly with Jason Knapp, I wouldn’t be shocked if they tried it again.
    Tom (Boston): Are the Phillies going to sign anyone in Latin America this year or just skip the whole thing altogether? Have you heard them on anyone?

    Ben Badler: It’s only been a couple of weeks since July 2, and this isn’t typically when the Phillies find their top prospects in Latin America, since they’re more of a mid/small budget team, although if they went after Carlos Tocci when he turns 16 I wouldn’t be surprised. The ability of teams like the Phillies and Rockies to find major league talent in Latin America every year without breaking the bank should be the next Moneyball movie.

    I guess he really likes the Phillies approach in Latin America but is not completely sold on Cosart.

    1. Phillies approach in the LatAmer market is average at best—-6 of the Braves top ten prospects were Latin ‘more of a mid/small budget team bonus’ signings. Look around—players like Reyes, Castro , Cano, Bautista were pretty substantial bonus signings, bottom line—Phillies philosophy to look for the bargain—-put them at a distinct disadvantage. However, if the ‘worldwide’ draft is implemented as Selig’s wants—then the Phillies will be able to take full advantage of the new system.

      1. Cano signed for approx. $250,000. Castro signed for $45,000. Reyes was $1.5 mil, so at least that one was large. I can’t find anything on Bautista because it was so long ago. At any rate, your point is not a good one. There are PLENTY of quality major league players that come from the area with smaller signing bonuses.

        1. I’m pretty sure Reyes’s $1.5 million signing bonus was for a contract extension in 2006, when he was already a major league regular. Can’t find information anywhere on his initial signing bonus as a teenager.

  9. I have always been of the mindset to get the proven players over the unproven players. That being said, I would think that no one is untouchable. I, like everyone else, follow these guys and get excited when they produce. But, I would take a Beltran or Kemp any day of the week in our current lineup. Add a small, veteran bullpen piece and that may do the trick. We need an impact player, not another middle of the road guy.

  10. Yes, Amaro thinks big. But don’t forget the trade of Lee for prospects. This was done to restock the farm system, and it was done amidst furious controversy. Amaro likes the kids he has too and he’s going to balance the needs of the present with the needs of the future.

  11. If we are moving 2 or 3 prospects, I hope we are looking at kemp, quentin or pence. I want to see a younger, established guy,who we have for a while. A guy like beltran leaves at the end of year and we have no replacement, lose ibanez and lost prospects. Kemp or pence would be huge!!

  12. The Phils have an abundance of AA-AAA bullpen arms they could trade, so a loss of Schwimmer would be acceptable. They have DeFratus and Aumont (injured) waiting in the wings to join Stutes and Bastardo. Rumors are swirling much more quicker about Beltran and Bell both coming to Philly so something happening in next day or 2 is possible

  13. The Dodgers being sellers seems to imply Kemp’s availability, but no one from that organization has confirmed hat. I agree with the go big or go home sentiment, and to that say – get BJ Upton. He’s cheap, young, fast, has a big arm in the outfield and would play great LF defense. Most of all, he has HUGE power from the right side; if Charlie gets him straightened out, he could hit 35hrs in CBP.

    We should sell high on Cosart for the durability issues listed above. He might be limited to the ‘pen and we have plenty of depth there.

    If we’d be willing to trade Cosart for BJ Upton, I think Tampa would do that deal today. So would I. I’d even throw in a couple raw, inconsistent toolsy outfielders to get Upton, the king of inconsistent, raw, toolsy outfielders, and would sign him for a few years while his stock is down.

    With the bullpen a bigger need, I might save Cosart to acquire Adams, who’s value’s higher than Upton’s right now. If we acquired Upton and Adams, we’d save a fortune over the next few years. Our starting left fielder/5th hitter and closer would be just entering their prime, and making a combined 10-11 million dollars, which is less than half what we’d pay for lesser, older alternatives on the open free agent market. We could get younger and better, while keeping most of the farm intact.

    1. Is there a more overated player in the game right now than BJ Upton? The guy’s number the last THREE seasons have been on par with Ibanez’s 2011 season.

      He’s an intriguing talent but he isn’t an upgrade over what they currently have. John Mayberry is posting better numbers!!!

      1. If Upton’s contact/walk numbers didn’t stink, we couldn’t even think about trading for him, but he’s still younger than Mayberry and currently has 15hr and 22sb playing a solid center field.(2nd OF range factor)

        1. Yes, he’s a good defensive player but the Phillies need is an upgraded RH bat for LF and Upton doesn’t provide that.

      2. Upton is massively overrated. He’s been living off his lofty draft position for years. And that’s not including his poor attitude.

  14. I don’t hear it much here, but I continue to hear rumblings that we should trade Brown for someone. Over the last 30 days, Brown seems to have figured it all out, and in that time has an OBP of 380 and OPS of 748, which is quite fine for a rookie. He’s been a solid player for us and considering his age should be a very valuable piece of the puzzle for the next 4-5 years, at least.

    I’m certainly hoping any package does not include shipping him out!

  15. Kemp would cost too much. Not ikely in my opinion.
    My prediction (and I would do this)…
    Coming: Beltran (Mets eat the remaining $6MM)
    Going: Cosart

    Which contender needs a RH bat and could/will offer a better prospect?
    – I think the Red Sox and Yankees will be aggressive with pitching, more than bats.
    – Braves could offer something better than Cosart in Teheran, but I don’t think they will offer him.
    – Giants probaby could, but they rarely give up this leve of prospect.

    1. A legitimate top 50 prospect for a guy who will be gone in three months without any compensation? Not likely.

      1. You may be right, Cat. But I think Beltran (gives you quality at-bats, some power, good OBP, and is proven in playoffs) will absolutely garner a top 50 prospect from someone (or multiple 50-100 prospects), especially with the Mets willing to eat the remaining salary. That last part is not trivial to some teams.

        If the Mets would accept Cosart (this might not be enough), Beltran improves the Phillies chances of winning a WS this year.

        1. There is no way the price is that high on Beltran, the fact that their is no draft pick compensation when he leaves means that his value is much lower than you would think. Seven years ago when he was at his peak he (plus the Astros got two picks) was worth a top 30 prospect (John Buck) and Octavia Dotel . He is a shell of what he was, no way his value is the same today.

        2. Teheran?

          ‘[Cosart] might not be enough’?

          Come on, man! A top prospect for a three month rental and no compensatory picks?

          1. The Phillies are the favorites to win this year. Beltran improves those chances. A pitcher with talent (and substantial risk) in High A is worth improving those chances, in my view.

            So if the Mets are willing to eat his salary, what kind of prospect do you think they would accept in this trade anyhow?

            FWIW, in the linked Heyman article, he mentions Domonic Brown as the price for Beltran – a far greater price than Cosart. I would not part with Dom (and I’m sure the Phillies wouldn’t either), but I think it suggests the market for Beltran is significant.

            1. Just because Heyman is willing to sacrifice his credibility for page views doesn’t mean you have to

            2. I think it suggests the Mets people are trying to make the market for Beltran seem more significant than it is

  16. I think everyone is available.. If we dont win a world series in the next few years it will be a great failure. when you are this close, you have to go all in

    Unfortunately, despite the front office’s great moves (getting Halladay) there have been many that have hampered us. (Lidge’s extension, Blanton, etc… and Howard in the next 5 years- yuck!)

    It seems that Ruben is fairly good at trading.. not so good at contract negotiations….

    So. if we have to deal Cosart and Singleton.. to get back meaningful pieces that can contribute for 1-2 years you have to do it

    Unless Brown continues to develop.. our lineup is fairly putrid for the next two years. While pitching can win… we need another good young bat in the lineup.

    Surer, it would be nice to have a good rotation to step in.. in 3-4 years when Cliiff and Roy are older.. but if we go 3-4 years with no World Series.. that would be a disaster.. We’d be the Braves of the 1990s…

  17. As much as I love our farm arms especially Schwimmer, he does not have the big league experience that some of these guys being discussed in rumors have. People forget that Bastardo has been up with the big team not just last year but before that as a starter, and has thrown in the playoffs. Stutes, as well as he has thrown this year and I love him for it, does not have the playoff experience that Charlie needs from the back end. I think an ideal package would be Conor Jackson and Grant Balfour from the A’s for a “Trevor May/Jiwan James” package. I think it is fair and gets it done. Jackson has great pop, can play the infield while Polly heals, and won’t command playing everyday to stunt Brown’s development.

    1. Finally, a trade speculation that makes sense. We’ve traded with the A’s before, and it won’t break the bank.

    2. Interesting suggestion Rich, but I don’t see the “pop” in Jackson’s bat. Maybe once upon a time, but 6 HRs in over total 500 ABs in the 2009-2011 doesn’t qualify as “pop”. In addition, Jackson’s BA the last few years is about the same as Mayberry’s right now. Not an upgrade.

    3. Make that Willingham instead of Jackson, and I would be willing to throw in another B-C prospect or multiple C-D prospects (Overbeck + Rizzotti).

      1. Willingham seems very mediocre. Over his career, a HR every 21.5 ABs. BA . 263 lifetime. This year, at least, hitting .232 against LH pitching. Compare Mayberry. (HR every 19 ABs, .239 lifetime, .226 against LH pitching this season) and tell me if this is much of an upgrade.

        1. Wow. Are you really comparing Willingham’s stats to Mayberry’s based on Mayberry’s 210 career at bats? Were you aware that only Howard and Utley on the Phillies have a career OPS higher than Willingham’s? Were you aware that only Howard among the Phil’s regulars has hit more homers per at bat in his career? Did you realize that, despite his struggles early this year, Willingham has a career OPS of .870 against lefties?

          1. You make some good points. Of course it is a good deal if we get the Willingham that hits 26 home runs and bats .270. However, Willingham is 32 and there is reason to believe that he may be on the decline. The comparison to Mayberry was only an example, but there is reason to believe that Mayberry may perform better in the future than he has up until now.

            1. Would also include that Willingham is playing in an extreme pitchers park which no doubt is affecting his 2011 numbers.

              I don’t see any evidence that Mayberry “may” perform better in the future than he is currently.

    4. Well I just feel like there is too much interest in willingham right now, so Jackson and breslow or wuertz or balfour we could prob get for a B/C package. I understand the mayberry love, I like him too, but it doesn’t look like management sees it the same way.

      1. For me, it isn’t Mayberry love, but I don’t want to give up prospects for a hitter who doesn’t substantially improve the team. Mayberry is what we have now; if the trade doesn’t bring in a substantial upgrade, then why bother? I think Charlie gets it, as he recently said, “…I don’t want to get what we’ve already got.”

  18. Hey! Has anybody heard? There is some trouble between the Dodgers ownership group (Frank McCourt) and the MLB, with MLB wishing to take over the Dodgers in order to protect team assets and long term future, McCourt being under the watchful eye of MLB and the bankruptcy Judge/ Lawyer the nefarious McCourt has now unwisely involved in the process. Given these circumstances, I hardly think an imminent move would be shipping out Matt Kemp for a substandard- comparable to Kemp- package , or to phrase that differently, any combination of Philly prospects.

  19. I agree with the go big or go home mentality. I’d move any of our young prospects for Kemp or Upton as we’d have those guys beyond 2011 (this is Raul’s last year, so we will need an everyday OF next year). I just don’t think our farm system has enough arsenal to go and get those guys.

    I think the Phillies’ payroll limitations are being slightly overblown – even Kemp would cost less than $3M for this year (prorated amount of his $6.95M salary). He’d probably get $10M-12M in arbitration next year, which is still less than Raul.

    If the move is for Beltran, I wouldn’t give up much more than a mid-tier prospect since the Phils won’t receive any compensation for him after this year. If the Mets want more, than I’d move on to Ludwig.

  20. if atlanta wants either beltran or kemp. they have better minor prospect to offer and have the money to pay them with lowes contract up. That why if we are talking kemp we must talk brown.worley to be realistic.

  21. For reference, I would like to remind everyone the salary landscape for 2012. These include general assumtions for illustrative purposes. Please don’t get caught up in the details.

    The Phillies are committed to Halladay (SP1), Lee (SP2) , Blanton (SP4), Contreras (RP4), Ruiz (C), Howard (1B), Utley (2B), Polanco (3B), and Victorino (CF) for about $107M. Assume we buy out Lidge and Oswalt for $3.5M. Worley (SP5), Bastardo (RP2), Stutes (RP3), Brown (RF) and Mayberry (LF) should cost about $500K each. Assume we sign Hamels (SP3) for 4 years/$75M (15/20/20/20), Madson (RP1) for 3 years/$25M (7/9/9), and Rollins (SS) for 3 years/$40MM (12/14/14). We could conservatively fill out the backend of the bullpen (3 pitchers) for $3M and the bench (5 players) for $6M.

    The above adds up to $157M. This year’s luxury tax threshhold is $178M. Assuming it is about $185M next year, that leaves $18M.

    Options inlclude keeping Oswalt ($14M more than the buyout) or upgrading LF.

    1. Oswalt could be done after this season, so I’m not sure how reliable he is for 2012. Could Blanton pitch enough to build up some trade value? I’d rather use KK at $2.5 million as the #5 than Blanton at $10.

      The Pen, outside Madson, could be young, cheap and GOOD.

      1. I agree – I can’t imagine something so monumentally stupid as trading your top prospect who’s only just reached the majors and is several years from arbitration (ie cheap on a team full of expensive stars) for a 6 week rental.

        Its like trading Worley for Bell. Really? Worley is at $400k for the next few years and the front office has done nothing but complain about the situation the high payroll has put them in this season (no flexibility). Well it doesn’t come any more flexible than Worley’s $400k – so moving him would require another year from someone like Blanton at $10 million. No thanks on either front.

  22. Just posed this to Crashburn, but how about: Cosart, Schwimer, and James for Pence? Our #1 SP, our #1 CF, and our #1 RP for an OF with 2 years left of arbitration. I’d do it in a heartbeat.

      1. Just about everyone would do that in a heartbeat, but Cosart, Schwim, James is still not enough for Pence…and May is less valuable than Cosart. Maybe Cosart, Colvin, James and DeFratus…If an offer sounds like too much, its probably getting close.

        If Tyler Greene is signing and Rollins is resigning, could we consider trading Galvis? Not to Ed Wade, but maybe in a package for a reliever. Galvis has some value.

          1. Talk about undervaluing prospects. Colvin and Cosart are both projected to be front-end big league starters, James is easily our best OF prospect right now, and De Fratus has closer-type stuff. That would be a fleecing if we dealt all 4 for Pence.

          2. Apparently, there is a group of Phillie fans working to help Ed Wade keep his job in Houston.

  23. Honestly if I see any of the Phillies top 4 or 5 prospects dealt for Beltran I’ll be annoyed. I don’t believe his worth is that much more than Lance Berkman last season. Beltran is having a better season than Berkman did last year, but both players had no-trade clauses to limit where you could deal him (if he wouldn’t approve) and you’re not going to get a compensatory pick with Beltran. So if Berkman cost a poor man’s “Jason Donald” plus a 25 year old AAA reliever. I think that max value for Beltran would be something like Schwimmer/Stutes/Mathieson, Cesar Hernandez, Austin Hyatt/JC Ramirez and honestly I think that’s overpaying… but I think that’s max or beyond max for what he’s worth giving up. No way anyone like Brown/Singleton/Cosart/Colvin/May/Valle should be involved in a 2 month rental with no draft pick compensation.

  24. RAJ should offer the Mets Gillies, Aumont and JC Ramirez for Beltran. If nothing else it’d show he has a sense of humor.

  25. Anybody that thinks we shouldn’t be giving a top five prospect for Beltran might want to avoid David Murphy’s just-posted article. He contends Mets would require they guy they consider the best pitcher in Clearwater (he assumes that’s Cosart) as a precondition to the deal. Can’t say I disagree, especially if the Mets are going to pay his salary. Beltran’s been great this year, and he really would be a perfect fit for the Phillies.

    1. David Murphy’s analysis from last July 16: “The Phillies have made no secret that they are looking to upgrade their rotation. The problem they face in doing so is two-fold: First, Roy Oswalt is the only top-shelf starter who is definitely available. Second, the Phillies will not part ways with Domonic Brown, their only major-league ready blue-chip prospect, making it difficult to acquire anything greater than a middle-of-the-rotation arm.”

    2. Rich, I am a little worried about Beltran’s average against lefties which is not that much better than Mayberry or Francisco. I would hope Ben is included in any trade as an additional player.

  26. breaking news i just heard from a phils guy matt rizzotti has been traded !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  27. The Riz makes sense as a throw in somewhere but I doubt he would be the first name to come out.

  28. well all the swindle fans he is back on the market just released according to mlb trade rumors. also houston has pence on market and braves are on him and jonny gomez who i know nothing about.phillies are mention on milky cabera now. and beltran. beltran would be nice but the price might really hurt

  29. If cosart is a precondition for a beltran deal, i think the question RAJ should be asking is how much more would it take to pry Pence away from Houston. I agree with above comments in that a 3 month rental should not cost us a top 3 prospect

    On another note, how does everyone think worley fits in with the playoff roster/rotation? I know a lot is contingent on Oswalt/Blanton’s health but it seems like theyre going to have a spare starter come October and this may lessen the need for a reliever if one of those arms could be moved to the pen

  30. I agree with the Worley assessment, but it seems that Oswalt will be back in the rotation. Blanton should be shelved for the rest of the season if there is no progress by the trading deadline. He essentially needs another spring training anyway and would not be effective come playoff time.

    I like Beltran for lower level prospects and maybe you give him an extension for next season as a replacement for Ibanez. However, Mayberry should be given a shot and there is plenty of outfield depth.

    So here it is an out of box thought:
    Trade for 3B Aramis Ramirez from the Cubs. I don’t like his defense, but he is a RH bat, statistically a top 5 3B, and potential DH for the WS. I am afraid Polanco would not help the team by playing hurt and he can take his time to get back come September roster expansion. Remember, the 96′ Yankees had Charlie Hayes and Scott Brosius. Veteran teams can play with depth in order to win it all.

    No relief pitching trade: Lidge is your guy and Grilli should be a call up in my opinion.

    1. Aramis Ramirez has a full no trade, and has said in the past that he won’t waive it. Might be worth kicking the tires on but it seems like a shot at the playoffs is not high on his priority list.

      1. They all say the same thing about being traded so not to alienate the fans or tip their hand. Oswalt was similar in that sense. I think this is a better trade than for Pence. The Cubs need need to rebuild and cannot move the bad contracts. Ramirez is an asset that can bring positive returns. Houston has no incentive to trade Pence and the Muts will ask for too much for Beltran. The Angels are said to be interested in Ramirez as well, but could be out of the race soon enough

  31. Ruben is right now working on Cosart, Singleton, and Worley for Hanley Ramirez. Beltran is Plan B… Melkman Plan C. (In my mind anyway.)

      1. who cares? That was one of my original worries about trading him but if he would be the center peice in a deal… I’d ship him over to Houston or Florida or New York, I’d do it right now.

        1. Exactly. This team is built to succeed in the post-season, and Worley becomes superfluous at that point.

          1. Does it? Who’s the 4th starter? Who’s the 4th starter next year when Oswalt is retired and Blanton is having Tommy John surgery. Vance isn’t going anywhere.

            1. Yes, Worley becomes an extra part in the post-season. After the season is over, there will be plenty of opportunities to add a 5th starter (Kendrick could be your fourth starter since you asked). Heck, Jamie Moyer could be back by then.

    1. Pence isn’t worth that IMO. I watch a lot of him down here and he’s a very good player, but not worth that. I worry about how he would handle playing in Philly.

  32. Gammons is reporting that Houston will likely hold onto Pence because they cannot find the 3-4 player package they want.

    Sounds like grandstanding.

  33. Marlon Byrd can give you almost as much as the above players and he can play center. We need four runs a game not 500.
    Marlon should be a lot cheaper . One good prospect if they take back some money.

  34. They would trade Singleton in the right deal but that won’t be for a Beltran rental. I’m sure there are plenty of OFs that Singleton could be traded for that could come here for a few years and not be that expensive. Pence is the most obvious especially with our history with Wade and their desire to cut salary. However, with the Phils desire to not add salary, I doubt this will happen. As far as including one of the junior big 3 in a deal, it would take a heck of a player coming back. A 3 team deal is not impossible either. As far as Brown in a trade, let alone for Beltran, that’s just plain foolish. They wouldn’t trade him for Halladay… the goal is to kep Brown and an another OF that can play next year too. There will definitely be a deal or deals of some kind but I’m not expecting a big one.

  35. Reports are Phillies are trying to center a deal around Vance Worley for Pence.

    PLEASE, Ed Wade, be stupid enough to accept this deal!

  36. Thanks. I tend to think olney just likes To hear himself talk sometimes. I don’t see how trading worley makes any sense. I know you sell high but I don’t have much hope for oswalt at this point.

  37. It seems with all reports that they will make 100 comments and take credit if any 1 is correct. So anything they say is meaningless to me.

  38. Speaking of prospects we’ve traded away recently, while Cliff Lee had himself a bang up June, the biggest piece he was traded for, Carlos Carrasco, had himself a bit of a month as well…

    June 4 – 2 / 1.90era / 42.2 inn / 30 hits allowed / 7bb / 28k

    Good to see him turning into a real solid pitcher. I always root for our old prospects (other than Gavin Floyd, who just rubbed me wrong).

  39. If Howard Eskins word means anything (BIG if indeed) then he said that the Phillies will not move Singleton in any deal.

  40. I trust Eskin about as much as Olney lol. Right now he is making Beltran sound like Babe Ruth.

  41. Bottom line is that Beltran wants to be on a contender and the red sox and yankees are not interested. The braves are building within and would not give up top prospects. Beltran and his full no trade would want to come to the first place phillies, not the braves.
    That is the angle to play here, Beltran to phillies or not at all. The muts cannot afford to not trade beltran. They need players. My tire kicking proposal is Austin Hyatt and any combo of Kyle Kendrick or Mathesien, or Carpenter for Beltran.

    Though I prefer Aramis Ramirez from the cubs because his bat would be incredible for in this lineup. Go phillies!

  42. Pence probably will get done last minute for Worley, Julio Rodriguez and Mike Schwimer. Pretty good deal for both sides. Or something structured like that.

  43. Let’s hope so, that is a great deal for the phillies! Worley does not project better than a # 4 or 5 starter. I would like to see the team hold onto some of the latin players, but look at the other pitchers who would be kept from that deal. Schwimmer is one of many relief pitchers on the farm.

    Also, I think the Phillies media spin doctors need to better than that of the Muts. Clearly, the high demand for beltran is a new york media hype and nothing more. He can veto any trade and why pick the braves over the phillies? I wouldn’t mind a one year extension to beltran [ala berkman], but want to see Mayberry and possibly Derrick Mitchell get a shot at playing everyday in the bigs.

    1. I agree with Mayberry & Mitchell there both a talent waiting to explode.They just need there chance to blossom , they haven’t had the same opertunites that Brown has had. It’s easy to play when there pat ton you on the back all the time telling you how good you are like Brown has had.

  44. The Cubs are a good indicator of what happens when you have aging veteran players with bloated contracts and no good prospects in the minors. They have a big payroll, but the fans are tired with the losing and Wrigley Field is not selling out anymore. And now the payroll is sure to go down because of it. It’s a vicious circle that I want the Phillies to avoid. Giving up top prospects for Pence, Beltran, Bell look good now, but we’ll pay the price later. Amaro should take it easy and make low key moves. We need to hang on to Cosart and Singleton.

  45. I would love to see the phillies go for byrd and a diaz type, wouldnt cost a lot and could really help us. also love to see a guy who can hit be the back up catcher prefer a right hand bat there too.

  46. According to Jayson Stark ( http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110722/mlb-how-available-ubaldo-jimenez-colorado-rockies-hunter-pence-houston-astros-james-shields-tampa-bay-rays-really-rumblings-grumblings ) the Phillies have made it very clear that Brown and Worley are not going anywhere. Cosart would only be available for a Blockbuster move (I am assuming Ubaldo or Shields are the only two available who even near that). Singleton is only available for impact player controlled beyond this year (he would be in a deal for Pence but not Beltran and certainly not for any reliever except Soria).

  47. I still expect smaller deals like for Qualls and Melky. I could see them trading Pettibone, Schwimer, and Riz in one deal and maybe Hyatt and Galvis in the other.

    1. LIke them to get Jeff Francouer—-young at 27, big, strong with some power and great defensively. He could be acquired like the 2007 Werth. But that was Pat Gillick’s call.

      1. If Pence and Beltran prove too costly, I’d certainly like to see Francouer. He just crushes lefties.

  48. My deal is at 3B or LF folks. Aramis Ramirez or Carlos Beltran. Polanco is not a guarantee either and he needs rest.

    The NYC media spin doctors are working hard on inflating Beltran’s value, but it is ultimately his call. The Philly media spin doctors should have late breaking news by mid next week: “Beltran: I want to be a Phillie”.

    Pence seems to be the overvalued commodity and we should not fall in that trap. I liked how RAJ took the Halladay Trade negotiations in 2009 and flipped over to a deal for Cliff Lee. I sense something similar will happen here.

  49. Stark, who is usually very reliable, is reporting that teams calling the Phils….

    about Worley say he is unavailable.

    about Brown, say the Phils response is “That’s not going to happen”

    about Singleton, he’s available but not for a rental player, only a major piece under team control for several years.

    about Cosart, he’s not available, virtually untouchable.

  50. Looks like the Phillies will not be getting Francouer—Sox appear to be talking to the Royals about acquiring the righthand bat for the Fenway faithful.

  51. I’m hearing BJ Upton’s name pop up now. Jennings was just called up so anything can happen. Wounder what it would cost to get Upton?

  52. Who ever it is I hope he can play left field well. Old Raul is not a pretty sight in the ninth and he could use some innings off. Anyone sick of hearing me say Marlon Byrd?

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