2011 MLB Draft Day 1 wrap-up

I wanted to make this its own post.

The Larry Greene writeup is posted, with profiles and videos. Discuss that pick there, post any more info you find, etc etc.

Tomorrow is Day 2 of 3, with rounds 2-30. The Phillies pick 2 times in RD 2, and then once in each round thereafter. Dave will be updating picks tomorrow during the day, as I will be off the grid all day, and I will have a long writeup tomorrow night with info on all of the guys taken in R2-30.

Check below the fold for more info

As I mentioned earlier today, I was given a list in confidence of 3 guys the Phillies were looking at very closely. Greene wasn’t on that list. Is that because the Phillies didn’t think he’d be there, and they wanted to take him? Is it because one of the guys they liked had unrealistic bonus demands at the last minute? I don’t know. Beggars can’t be choosers, I have the info I have. Of the guys I wrote up, the following guys are still available

Nick Delmonico, INF (Farragut HS, TX)
Cameron Gallagher, C (Manheim Township HS, PA)
Charlie Tilson, OF (New Trier HS, IL)
Brad Miller, SS (Clemson)

And really, there is still a TON of talent on the board. Tomorrow should be fun/interesting. Tune in and we’ll do the best we can to make sense of it.

Here is a quick look at a few guys in BA’s top 100 that are still on the board

15. Josh Bell, of
16. Daniel Norris, lhp
28. Austin Hedges, c
30. Andrew Susac, c
31. Dillon Howard, rhp
32. Matt Purke, lhp
39. Jorge Lopez, rhp
41. Josh Osich, lhp
42. Alex Dickerson, of
46. Dillon Maples, rhp
50. Tony Zych, rhp
52. Granden Goetzman, of
54. Matt Dean, 3b
55. Anthony Meo, rhp
57. Ricky Oropesa, 1b/3b
62. Charlie Lowell, lhp
64. Cam Gallagher, c
66. Derek Fisher, of
68. Brad Miller, ss
69. Adam Conley, lhp
72. Tyler Marlette, c
73. Roman Quinn, of
74. Bryan Brickhouse, rhp
77. Jason Esposito, 3b
80. Charlie Tilson, of
82. Connor Barron, ss
84. Johnny Eierman, of

29 thoughts on “2011 MLB Draft Day 1 wrap-up

  1. Still not sure why folks get so excited about picks. Whether its your guy or not, signability is an issue. Lets hope Greene signs quick and develops. I wont mind a 35-40 hr type in Philly in 4-5 years

  2. 10 Preferences for the Next 2 Picks

    3B Jason Esposito
    SS Brad Miller
    C Andrew Susac – my guess is that it will require 1.3-1.5 so I don’t think likely
    C Cameron Gallagher
    C Tyler Marlette
    SS Conner Barron
    SS Tyler Greene
    LHP Josh Osich
    OF Grandon Goetzman
    RHP Jorge Lopez

    1. I’d imagine the Phils might be a little hesitant to draft a guy named Tyler Greene again … 🙂

    2. yea would be great if none of the five picks before us in the 2nd round take Esposito and hes available to us. Who knows if the Phils would take him anyways, but he looks like a strong kid that can make adjustments at the plate and above avg defense…Would fill one of their primary needs as well, if they are not going to focus on catcher for #66

  3. My top 4 for our next pick are Esposito, Osich, Susac and Delmonico. It’ll be interesting to see where Bell and Norris end up. Probably Detroit and Boston.

  4. Man, you are right. There’s still a lot of talent left on the board. How many of thee three that were mentioned to you are still on the board? I might have missed that.

    My top 5 for No.66 are:

    30. Andrew Susac, c
    32. Matt Purke, lhp (it’ll never happen, but a guy can dream)
    64. Cam Gallagher, c
    41. Josh Osich, lhp
    39. Jorge Lopez, rhp

  5. Greene- philly.com had some video clips. Showed Greene inside-the-park HR. Had split screen with stopwatch. Circled bases in 15 seconds.

  6. Saw on one of the Philly.com articles that super prospect & national HS player of the year Kaleb Cowart played in the same HS league and from a near by town. Cowart hit .654 with 11 HR’s as a senior, whereas Greene had to settle for .562 with 18 HR’s. Also saw Greene walked 37 times to only 6 strike outs.

    One random thought is I imagine the Phils scout for that area probably was scouting Cowart pretty hard last year and caught a glimpse of Greene and then they started scouting Greene a lot closer.

  7. 1/3 of the top 30 prospects listed here are OF’s. Guess they’ll go fishing for IF’s and C’s in the Latin leagues.

  8. Sorry to change the posting a bit. People want an infelder who can hit? Maybe you want to look at the VSL for a minute. Albertin Chavez, listed as a 3rd baseman but also plays 2B, 19 year old 5’10” 172. He has a triple slash of .382/.434/.500 with a .934 OPS. Very disciplined hitter: 7 Ks and 6 BBs. He hit his 1st HR yesterday. He also hasn’t committed an error yet. He was signed last June and has been pretty consistent. Could it be that they move him to the GCL when it starts up?

    Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Harold Garcia and Chavez show that there are more places to find infielders than the draft. There’s also another guy named Willians Astudillo who is also 19 and he’s hit very well (.304/.337/.367). He hit exactly the same as an 18 year old in the VSL last year. In 133 games in his minor league career, he’s struck out 14 times and none this year. He’s also played every position on the diamond except CF and P. He started as a catcher and is now playing more 2B and 3B with an occasional start at SS.

    1. Very interesting. I never know what to think about those DSL and VSL box scores–they’re just a jumble of Latin names to me. One nice thing about the draft (to bring this back to the topic at hand) is that it functions as a sort of introduction ceremony. Yesterday, few if any of us had ever heard of Larry Greene; today people have formed passionate opinions about him. There’s really nothing comparable for the Latin prospects–I feel like we only hear about the ones that get big bonuses until they start performing.

    2. I take it as a mildly bad sign that both Chavez and Astudillo are not in extended Spring right now and I don’t think they were in Spring Training this year either. The infielders there are Gustavo Gonzalez (the 20-year-old version of one of the high priced SS contracts that got voided), Jorge Castillo (a 2B/LF type so probably not great defense), Witer Jimenez (now 22 after his age discrepency), and Carlos Valenzuela (a faded prospect). None of these seem great infield prospects to me and while Chavez and Astudillo are a year younger they may not be better.

      Now that does not mean I am not excited by a couple of infielders at VSL. Jair Morelos is 17 and starting at SS and hitting .345 with speed and patience. Francisco Herrera is the starting 3B at age 17 and is hitting .290 with some power. Not sure the quality of the pitching as the league now has only 6 teams, but those guys are young enough to be real.

      Look for a VSL report in the next week that goes through a few more of these players. As for the draft, I DO think they have decided to load up on SS from Latin America. That frees them to get athletes and pitchers. I expect at least one college pitcher in the second round with the other pick being the best player available (likely another HS player). Not sure they will go Susac if that would cost them first round money. The Phillies are largely about mid-range value even with their over-slot signings.

  9. It has become pretty clear to me, and I think to anyone who watches the team play a lot, that CBO is clearly conducive to home runs and if you do not have at least a couple of home run hitters in your lineup, you are not maximizing the ballpark, so Green is at the very least an intriguing pick.

    What I keep hearing and is encouraging, is that he is also a good athlete. I think, over time, the implied meaning of this word, as applied to baseball players anyway, has changed. Now, when we say a great athlete, we talk about raw overall athletic skills. Runs fast, throws hard, has a powerful projectable body, etc. . . In the old days, however, while the phrase certainly did refer to raw athletic skills (run fast, throw hard, . . . .), I think it also meant somebody who was highly coordinated, had great body control, great hand-eye coordination, and could quickly adapt to the physical and technical demands of a sport. I think this is primarily what they are referring to when they talk about Greene being “athletic” and, frankly, I think this type of athleticism has become vastly underrated. I do not know anything about this guy but, in concept, the pick is intriguing.

    1. I would refine this slightly to say that it is better to have fly ball hitters in CBP, because short FBs that would be outs in other stadia are HRs in CBP.

      I like your distinction on “athletic”. In this particular instance I took it to mean “good at sports,” which is in evidence in one of those write-ups on him that PP posted.

    2. Just a coda to C22’s point: Saw a blurb that Greene has a soft body, I believe it implied (can’t recall where I read it) that Greene might get aq bit roly-poly, like Howard was earlier in his career, maybe. Hopefully the guy will be mature and put the work in, but it’s something to keep an eye on. That tendency seems to be more prominent in big guys.

  10. I meant “CBP” – gosh, I really need that second cup of coffee in the worst way.

    1. I thought you were talking about the collective bargining agreement until i read the rest of your post lol

  11. Send Green to the Lakewood BlueClaws! I have season tickets with the Lakewood BlueClaws and would love to see him play.

    1. Mike, totally off topic, but since you see them play a lot, which of the BlueClaws OFs do you like the most? Why?

    2. Sorry man, but as a HS guy he’s going to the GCL Phils for sure. Hopefully he hits well enough to get assigned to Lakewood next year!

  12. More on Greene. Other thread has quote from ” ballscoutz” or something like that, which was that they clocked him at 6.51 with screw in foot, like that. Always the 60 yard dash is what they timed in. Now, to figure, say if they made him slightly slower and put the time to 6.6 in the 60, that comes out to 1.1 seconds for every 10 yards. So, if they made it to the benchmark for NFL (football) testing – the 40 yard dash. I got that as a 4.4 40. Few of the prospective NFL Wide Recievers tested in the NFL combine every year are that fast (contrary to the opinion of some), and Greene is actually slightly faster than that. Seems plenty fast, and that is possible at that height and weight. Seems alot of the “scouting reports” churned out in a hurry, were assuming it wasn’t. The “one tool only ” thing does not stand up to examination at this point.

    1. The problem with your stats is when you’re running, the first say 20 meters are signinficantly slower then your second and third 20. So you can’t just take his 60 time and divide by 6 and multiply by 4 because the slowest part of the 60 stays in the calc, and some of the faster parts drops off.

      It’s impossible to know his 60 and convert to 40.

      If I were to guess, i’m thinking a 4.6 40.

    2. A 6.6 60 isn’t the same as a 4.4 40 because it takes 20-30 yards to get up to speed.

      A guy who can run a 4.4 40 can probably run a 6.2-6.4 60 provided they’re on the same surface and timed the same way.

      Still, it’s fast.

  13. Marfis, that type of analysis does not work when converting a 60 yard dash time into a 40 yard dash time. Typically it takes a runner about 10 yards to accelerate to full speed, this is the slowest segment of the run. Because both the 40 and 60 yard dash start from a standstill, this time will be the same for a runner no matter the distance. Thus you cannot take a 6.6 in a 60 yard dash, divide it into 6 equal segments, and then multiply by 4 to get a 40 yard dash. A 6.6 60 yard dash would equate to about a 4.7-4.8 40 yard dash if converted. A 4.4 40 yard time is an incredibly fast time, and would represent a 70-80 on a scout’s grade of the prospect. While this may be the grade for Greene’s power ability, it certainly is not his grade for speed (even though he isn’t slow, he certainly doesnt have + speed).

  14. From one of my baseball guys today:

    “Ran a 6.8 at a PG event, so he has the speed to stick in the corner outfield. He’s more of a dead pull guy right now, but he has a lot of power. His swing generates a lot of life because his bat flight path is on a slight uppercut plane. Balanced step and load action at the plate and strong hands to get the barrel too the ball. Not sure if he’ll grow anymore height wise, but we’ll see. Gotta keep his body in shape at 6’1. His power is his best tool.”

    Nothing earth-moving, but I still thought I would pass along.

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