Former Phillies’ pitcher, Roy Halladay, was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown on Sunday. I spoke with Roy briefly at a bingo fund raiser for his boys’ little league organization that his wife Brandy had organized with several other mothers of participating youngsters. It was the only time I ever spoke with Roy.
Ironically, I spoke with his wife on several occasions. Most occurred outside Bright House Field where Brandy and the other mothers set up a table to sell tickets to the fund raiser. They did a wonderful job selling tickets. In addition to meeting Roy, there were autograph opportunities available. Brandy had arranged to have Chase Utley, Kyle Kendrick, Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett on hand. That was quite a feat on her part.
I’d like to suggest a moment of silence to commemorate the occasion. But, that seems silly. How about if we temper our criticism of the team and organization for a day. Sure, it’s a fan’s right to criticize. But, let’s consider that no one tries to fail. That every one is trying their best.
You know, I’m a skeptic. But, let me share this little story because it struck me at the time. I was watching the Phillies game Sunday afternoon. When the rain delay in the fourth inning started with the Pirates leading 1-0, I switched to the MLB Network to see what was happening in Cooperstown. The Halladay video was playing and Brandy Halladay was introduced shortly thereafter. After her touching speech, I watched a little of the next presentation before going back to the game. The game had only just restarted, the game was still in the top of the fourth, and the Phillies had tied the score.
The game-tying hit was delivered by Cesar Hernandez, the only team mate of Halladay’s remaining on this team from Halladay’s last Phillies’ team in 2013.
This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.
- July 31, 2019 – Non-waiver trade deadline
- September 1, 2019 – Roster expansion to 40 players (for the last time)
- September 17, 2019 – beginning of the Arizona Fall League
- October 12, 2019 – Arizona Fall Stars Game
- October 27, 2019 – Arizona Fall League Championship Game
The rosters and lists are up to date.
- organization’s rosters
- organization’s injury list
- organization’s Rule 5 eligibility list (includes player info, assignments, …)
7/21/19 – Phillies signed free agent LHP Drew Smyly
7/20/19 – Phillies optioned RHP JD Hammer to Lehigh Valley
7/20/19 – Minnesota traded RHP Mike Morin to Phillies for cash
7/20/19 – RHP Omar Maldonado assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
7/19/19 – RHP Gustavo Armas assigned to Reading from Clearwater
7/19/19 – RHP Colton Eastman assigned to Reading from Clearwater
7/19/19 – RHP Alejandro Requena assigned to Clearwater from Reading
7/19/19 – Clearwater sent RHP Waylon Richardson on a rehab assignment to GCL East
7/19/19 – RHP Michael Gomez assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood
7/19/19 – RHP Albertus Barber assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
7/19/19 – Johan Rojas assigned to Williamsport from GCL West
7/19/19 – OF Tucker Maxwell assigned to GCL West from Williamsport
7/19/19 – Lakewood activated Gilmael Troya
7/19/19 – Cam Beauchamp activated by GCL West from GCL East
7/19/19 – Carlos Hernandez released by DSL Red
7/19/19 – Phillies signed Int’l FA Jarol Martinez to a futures contract to DSL Red
7/18/19 – Phillies optioned LHP Austin Davis to Lehigh Valley
7/18/19 – Phillies selected the contract of RHP Fernando Salas from Lehigh Valley
7/18/19 – Phillies recalled LHP Cole Irvin from Lehigh Valley
7/18/19 – OF Jadiel Sanchez assigned to GCL West
7/18/19 – GCL West activated RHP Josh Gessner from the restricted list
7/18/19 – C Mitchell Edwards assigned to GCL West from GCL East
7/18/19 – RHP Starlyn Castillo assigned to GCL East from GCL West
7/18/19 – LHP Nathanael Bido assigned to DSL White from DSL Red
7/18/19 – RHP Cristofer Adames assigned to DSL Red from DSL White
7/18/19 – Clearwater assigned C Edgar Cabral from the 7-day IL to the 60-day IL
7/18/19 – Clearwater assigned LHP Kyle Young from the 7-day IL to the 60-day IL
7/18/19 – C Kevin Escalante assigned to DSL Red from GCL West
7/17/19 – Phillies recalled LF Nick Williams from Lehigh Valley
7/17/19 – Clearwater placed C Jack Conley on the 7-day IL
7/17/19 – C Nick Matera assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood
7/17/19 – Phillies signed Int’l FA Christopher Burke to a futures contract with GCL East
7/17/19 – Yacksel Rios activated by Lehigh Valley
7/17/19 – Rob Brantly activated by Lehigh Valley
7/17/19 – Joshua Gessner activated by GCL West
7/16/19 – Phillies assigned Edubray Ramos to the 10-day IL
7/16/19 – Phillies recalled Austin Davis Lehigh Valley
7/16/19 – Phillies optioned RHP Yacksel Rios to Lehigh Valley
7/16/19 – RHP Luis Carrasco assigned to Reading from Clearwater
7/16/19 – RHP Alejandro Requena assigned to Reading from Clearwater
7/16/19 – LHP Zach Warren assigned to Clearwater from GCL West
7/16/19 – Clearwater sent Waylon Richardson on a rehab assignment to GCL West
7/16/19 – SS Uziel Viloria assigned to DSL Red
7/15/19 – Jadiel Sanchez assigned to GCL West from GCL East
7/15/19 – DSL Red activated Uziel Viloria
7/15/19 – DSL Red released Noelis Moreno
7/15/19 – Phillies signed free agent 1B Logan Morrison to a minor league contract
7/15/19 – LHP Josh Tols assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
7/15/19 – C Nick Matera assigned to Lakewood from Lehigh Valley
7/15/19 – 1B Logan Morrison assigned to Lehigh Valley
7/15/19 – Reading placed RHP Mauricio Llovera on the 7-day IL
7/15/19 – 2B Brayan Gonzalez assigned to GCL East from Williamsport
7/14/19 – 1B Ryan Howard retired
7/14/19 – Phillies recalled RHP Edubray Ramos from Lehigh Valley
7/14/19 – Lehigh Valley placed RHP Alexis Rivero on the 7-day IL
7/14/19 – LHP Taylor Lehman assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
7/14/19 – Lakewood placed RHP Tyler McKay on the 7-day IL retro to July 13th
7/14/19 – RHP Adam Leverett assigned to Williamsport from GCL East
7/14/19 – LHP Erik Miller assigned to Williamsport from GCL West
7/14/19 – SS Bryson Stott assigned to Williamsport from GCL East
456 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of July 22nd”
Anyone have a BA account? If so, any insights on their Phils midseason top 30?
Must be something in Moniak’s game that scouts really don’t like. Yes, he starts the year slow but every level his numbers are better than his last and this year he got a real chance to have his best year yet.
I wasn’t asking about Moniak. Any other comment in the BA write up about our top 30 that are interesting?
Bohm’s bat profiles for either corner infield position
Howard highest upside of any pitcher in the system
Medina has flashes but has been underwhelming, still has arsenal at least average across the board
Stott changed his swing late at UNLV and to tap into his power. An offensive player who might end up at 3B
Haseley still not the power scouts want to see in corner outfield.
Marchan has impressed scouts with defense and approach. Lacks game power but catching skills make him at least an MLB backup.
DLS one of the most Major League-ready arms in the system. A starter but getting bullpen work in MLB
Morales. Some of the nastiest stuff in the system but needs to improve consistency, command and his change-up to remain a starter.
Luis Garcia. Lack of plate impact has scouts concerned, but should stick at SS.
Damon Jones has produced eye-popping numbers with fastball and sweeping slider
To be clear, the above is from BA at v1again’s request
Anything on Darick Hall?
Just kidding. 🙂
Thanks for the synopsis on the prospects.
Just so you know, I have been a very quiet member of the Darick Hall fan club.
Good to hear Frank,
There must be a few out there…closet Hall guys.
Romus, is it closet Hall guys or Hall closets. (Ouch)
Perfect. Thank you for answering the question that I asked rather than yelling at me for a comment that I never asked. 🙂
Anyone see or hear an update on Segura’s heel?
I noticed on Lehigh’s Game Day that Logan Morrison was lifted in the 3rd inning for a pinch hitter. Curious as to whether that had anything to do with the possibility of Segura going on the IL. Morrison seems to be a logical call up since Kingery would most likely take the lion’s share of reps at SS. With the off day today, we might not hear anything until Tuesday.
Hats off to Doc in the HOF!
Congratulations for Roy Halladay and his family for his Hall of Fame induction. It is a credit to Roy that his former teammates would give their time willingly to support to his fund raising activities as Jim described.
Since both are Razorback alums, it was natural for Smyly to model his mechanics and delivery off former famous Razorback and hero Cliff Lee.
And until he went down with UCL issues, thru his age27 season, Smyly even had a 9.8bWAR over his first 110 MLB games started…..actually a bit better than his hero, Cliff Lee who thru his first 109 MLB games started and age27 season, had accumulated a 5.9bWAR.
After that it all changed for Smyly and he hit the TJ barrier, whereas Cliff Lee spiraled upwards..
Hopefully the Phillies can get the old Smyly back.
Both guys jog off the mound too, that’s actually what made me think of Cliff
All I know is that Smyly delivered in his 1st game, and we actually won while only scoring 2 runs. And, I really thought that Brandy Halladay did a great job. I appreciate your recollections of her fundraising at the park, Jim. Watching the standing ovation for her yesterday was pretty cool. I loved Doc, and the struggles he had after baseball are really sad. We often forget that these are real people, with real issues, despite the fact that they were blessed with athletic skill.
September 17, 2019 – beginning of the Arizona Fall League……I think the league is starting a few weeks earlier than previous years.
Yes, I have it as one of the Key Dates above. I believe the thinking was to decrease the amount of down time between the end of the invitees regular seasons and the beginning of the AFL.
The cynic in me, that has grown very strong from years of philly fandom, doesn’t even get excited about Symly’s results. More like the baseball gods messing with us for a good laugh.
I’ve seen this song and dance before over the years, I’ll get excited after 8 starts. That should be a good gauge.
Other than that, hats off to Smyly, and his efforts to overcome TJ, rooting for him, lol just going to be very reserved as if he could be a quality starter for the Phils, it’s almost too good to be true … like a mini Nicky Foles too good to be true type of story. Q
With what Smyly throws, he has to do what he did repeatedly, to convince me. No sure his stuff plays well over the long haul.
Nola vs Boyd
If he rocks it, starts looking like a fit, what is it going to take to get him?
Garcia could be a chip with another bottom 10 pitching prospect, and say 1 of Williams, Franco or – their pick. I mention theses names because rumors were it’s take. Good bit to get him. I’m not giving up Howard or Bohm. I’d consider Medina if it turns out he is a #2 or above…
Will get a good look at Boyd, and then the FO will have to decide if the upside is worth the prospect capital. If Boyd is moving into another level so to speak, time to pounce is now, as I believe he has some control.
The Phillies tend to struggle against a marginal SP so if the Phillies end up struggling against Boyd, I’m not sure if Boyd is good or it just Phillies being Phillies against marginal SP.
What I will be looking for is Boyd’s pitching arsenal – pitch mix, quality of pitches, pitch usage, velo and pitch movement. I like to see how Boyd strike batters out. I watched some of his games in MLB.com and I think it’s more location hitting border line spots. Boyd’s SL looks good but not sure if it is a plus. FB looks a typical average pitch. Boyd’s throws mostly a FB-SL combo 90% of the time. If the Phillies can locate Boyd’s pitches, Boyd will be pulled out earlier. Boyd rarely throws his CB and CH.
I think the Tigers would be asking for Adam Haseley and Adonis Medina (after first seekng Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard and getting nowhere).
As I’ve mentioned a few times already, I’d be just as interested in Detroit’s other LHP at a much cheaper price. Klentak should look to swap Vince Velasquez for Daniel Norris. The Tigers have a thing for power arms. VV is more of that than Norris. Norris (after a series of injuries over the last few seasons) is now mostly throwing 90 MPH, but still has his plus CB. Both guys are under team control for 2.5 more years, and could both probably use a change of scenery. Not saying Norris is going to carry the Phillies to the playoffs. Just saying I’m tired of watching VV.
I agree that Haseley (or Moniak) plus Medina (or DLS) is our offered package although Williams could be a 3rd piece. We would need one of Boyd or Stroman (who we almost certainly won’t get) for that kind of package. We’re not offering Howard or Bohm but there no pitcher worthy of that talent available anyway.
@Hinkie – I agree also with Norris. I prefer him over Boyd and maybe Klentak can buy low from him.
I’m just very skeptic about Boyd due to lack of track record of success. Nobody know of Matt Boyd not until this year and he’s 28 yo!!
The years of control only matters for very good players – like Chris Sales, Yelich, JTR when GMs traded for them. I’m not even sure if Matt Boyd is a good pitcher. Based on his career average, he’s a back end starter so if Boyd pitched to his career average, the Phillies will have another back end starter for 3 1/2 years!!
Tac, no one in the system would surprise me more if he were traded at this point than Luis Garcia. It would be the ultimate ‘sell low’ move for a guy they spent $2.5 M to sign. My crude analogy would be for you to trade in your Lamborghini, that was always in the shop, for a used pick-up truck. Every time you drive in the neighborhood, the looks you get remind you of the bad original purchase. Garcia stays and gets a chance to redeem himself because the pride of the scouting department counts for more than anything they could get for him in trade.
Here’s a question for anyone who might have any info.
Does Verizon Fios broadcast Phillies games (if you live in the Philly/S Jersey area)?
I’ve always preferred/used Comcast for cable. My wife and daughter prefer/use Verizon for internet. We also use Verizon for our land line (for faxing purposes). We’re thinking about bundling (triple play). I’ve heard/read different things about NBC Sports Philadelphia/Phillies games being carried via Verizon. TIA.
Hinkie…I have Verizon/FIOS, live in PA outside Phila, and get NBC Sports and SportsNET..both channels that carry the Phillies, along with the Flyers, and Sixers.
@Hinkie – I confirm Romus. I have FIOS but have full access to almost of Philly Sports mostly from CSN and NBC chanels
Thank you, both.
I live in Bellmawr, NJ and have Fios/Verizon. When I got it 5 years ago I was saving a lot, of course now Im paying close to what I was paying for Comcast 5 years ago. Customer Service is better and thankfully I rarely have to call them, looking into cutting the cord/Direct TV but I want to make sure I can still get CSNPhilly otherwise its a non starter.
Hey Eagleye5 you’re from Bellmawr ? Me too I was riased there.
I don’t like to speculate about specific players who may be of interest to the Phillies. I prefer to leave that to the experts (MacPhail, Klentak. and their team of scouts). I’ve read a lot of derogative remarks about them on these and other sites, but they did not rise to their current positions by being inept. John Middleton is not a fool. and the fact that he recently extended MacPhail and Klentak, should tell us that he approves of the direction of his team.
I will speculate that Klentak is not finished wheeling and dealing. I don’t see a rental pitcher unless he comes very cheap. More than likely, he will add another starter who could help the team this year and beyond. We can’t wait indefinitely for Robertson, Neshek, and Hunter to help us this year, and adding another starter could move Velasquez to the bullpen for the rest of the year. I will also speculate that Klentak will add another bat. My best guess would be a back up catcher who could give us what Wilson Ramos gave us last year. He could be a rental, or not, because the Phillies will need to upgrade that position next winter anyway. I like the way that Kapler is mixing and matching the current outfielders, and, unless the team trades an infielder in the next week, I’m satisfied with the infield.
As fans, we will never know how many blockbuster trades Klentak had made, only to have the other party pull out at the last minute. Also, we can’t judge him on the trades that he didn’t make because we felt that he should have made. We must remind ourselves that this team is being built to win this year, and the next ten years after that. I see several World Championships for this team in the next decade. Don’t you?
I can’t see clearly enough to know whether this team will win multiple championships over the next decade, but I see a team that’s improving, a management team that is deliberate and careful not to give away the farm too readily (and that’s a good thing) and a deep pocket owner very willing to spend. People are discouraged by this year but I’m not – you can see them getting better. You can see young players like Scott Kingery and Rhys Hoskins developing into stars with potential studs still in the minors. If they stay the course and use their discretion properly this team should be good for quite a while.
Mike, I hope I am wrong but I don’t understand your enthusiasm over Matt Klentak. I expect more under the radar pitching additions like Smyly was. He had a very good game yesterday but let’s see how he does this season. I don’t think we will trade any high prospects now that he has more time as GM so we will not get any major additions. Just resign “JT” and that should do it for 2019.
Mike, unless you can tell me who the All Stars to be are from among Bohm, Howard, Haseley, Stott or, less likely Medina, Moniak or Moniak, then my candid answer to you is “No, whatever championships that may come in this team’s future lie beyond my field of vision.”
I’m mixed on the field talent and way down on the front office. News of the MacPhail and Klentak decisions hit me hard. Like a McCutchen season-ending injury hard. Most people I know are better at their jobs than these 2.
I think Klentak has done a really good job this year obtaining “buy low” assets such as Jay Bruce, Brad Miller (yeah, he made a big error yesterday but he’s been quite good), and Drew Smyly. I’m encouraged by this value-oriented approach.
The Jose Alvarez trade was also a win. If I’m being honest, I didn’t think much of that deal when it was made.
Hinkie…I see the Dodgers may make a run at your favorite closer…..Pirates’ Vasquez.
They are concerned with Kenley Jansen. of late..been getting hit.
The Dodgers have the high end prospects to get a Felipe Vazquez deal done. However, LAD have a track record of being pretty stingy with their top prospects.
I love Vazquez, and he’s under a team friendly contract until 2024.
Remember last year at this time, I proposed sending Zach Eflin (when he was really going good) and three or four other prospects (I think I included Kilome and Seabold) to Pittsburgh for Vazquez. I don’t think a single poster was on board with that idea. You guys are nuts.
Mike, my enthusiasm for Klentak is tempered by what I feel has been misjudgments on Pitching. I want to see how that gets addressed. I don’t believe it will be fixed by internal means. A trade or a big FA signing, or a smaller signing in which we get lucky, like the equivalent of Jayson Werth; can anyone say Charlie Morton? But, a SP that is a legitimate #3 or higher has to come from somewhere. I think that Bryce, Rhys, JT, Kingery make up a strong nucleus. I am high on Haseley and Bohm and have a lot of hope, still, on MM, and a few guys after that. I think we can find, or convert, pitching into a quality bullpen, but I worry about their approach to the rotation.
matt13…that is how I see it also.
if Klentak has one shortcoming or weakness, IMO, it is pitching centered.
The list of fungible non-productive relievers is endless….and two of the better ones this season, were home grown obtained under the previous regime…Morgan and Neris.
Starting pitchers is almost as bad in what he has put together.
I am optimistic Drew Smyly will recapture his earlier career production output before the TJ.surgery. If so, that will be a feather in Matt K’s cap.
Using analytics from last season with the Three Amigos to project what they could accomplish this season….did not materialize.
If it were me….to save on the prospect capital…i would try for both Tanner Roark and Mike Leake…..two arms that may help these last two months that should not cost a whole heck of a lot.
I agree with Matt and Romus about Klentak’s misses on pitching. In one hand, he overvalues the pitching that he has and on the other he just cannot properly evaluate pitching. To complicate the matter, Johnny A. also has misgivings in the evaluating pitching prospects. Prior to the recent draft, Johnny A. loves the command artist and allergic to power arms. The only high-risk high-reward power arm that he signed (and significantly overpaid) is somebody who missed a lot of development time due to injury.
Uh yeah on Morton – I was complaining – LOUDLY – on here when they didn’t pick up his option the first time and commented on how they could miss him the second time for the type of price it would have cost to sign him. Think about it – he would have been only slightly more expensive than some of the non-performing relievers they signed.
agree Romus. We could actually find a closer, or at least some good “high leveraged” BP arms from those currently labeled SP. I take a shot on Norris, for sure, or Roark. MacPhail, on his own, is simply not going to spend what it takes to get a TOR Pitcher, just like Corbin this off season. And, Klentak reports to him. It will take Middleton to go over his head for Gerrit Cole or anyone else who becomes available. So, I am not expecting that.
matt13…i think all of us agree Gerit Cole will be the main target this off-season for the Phillies….along with a few other teams I am sure.
Maybe also San Diego, Atlanta, Twins, Dodgers, and of course the Astros will be there bidding for his services..
I can see a scenario where the Phillies acquire a TOR pitcher via trade before the deadline that pretty much takes them out of the big ticket free agent market this off season, one who will help them this year and for a couple more after this.
I suppose they could acquire a TOR via trade by next week….Klentak will have to do his magic and not give up someone like Howard in the deal since he will be the asking price to start off.
In this scenario, Phillies are willing to take less $$ in salary dump, Howard is already off the table, and an existing NTC is waived at a price the Phillies are willing to absorb.
Klentak has been able to work up trade deals in the past that seemed on the outset beneficial to the Phillies…..he probably will get something done in a similar way this time.
I’d be fine/happy with Grienke (if that’s who you’re referring to) and his bloated contract. However, I just don’t see him waiving his NTC to come here.
I questioned that too. I’ve been told it’s not a problem. If it doesn’t get done it won’t because of his NTC.
If this were to happen, you can see how this might affect their activity in the upcoming FA market.
Just checked MLBTR which references Jim Salisbury’s report that the Phillies have discussed trade possibilities with Detroit. Supposedly they are interested in Boyd and Greene. But he also mentioned that Castellanos and Norris have been discussed. Stay tuned….
….and Klentak will be traveling with the team to Motown.
8mark – I saw the same MLB Trade Rumor report but my version said that Hinkie and Klentak were talking to the Tigers about Daniel Norris…..
RU … LOL !!! I’ve got lots of ideas. Unfortunately, Matt Klentak has been mostly ignoring me 🙂
I’m still waiting for him to hire Iron Chef Masahuru Morimoto as Diretor Of Clubhouse Food Services.
I think the Phillies will try to sign Cole and Hamels. Expect all the big dollars this winter to go to pitching – and that’s where it should go. It’s also hard to know what to do with the back-up catcher. Knapp has been a horrible hitter, but, actually, I think he calls a better game than Realmuto. He’s not a better hitter and he’s not a better thrower and he’s probably not a better framer, but I think he’s an elite signal caller, to the point where he’s darn near invaluable. I realize this won’t be a popular or widely shared view, but I think Knapp calls as good of a game as I’ve seen recently and when he’s behind the plate pitchers tend to cruise and, to me, that justifies his existence as the back-up even if the hitting and other stats are not good.
I think the Braves trade for Marcus Stroman at the deadline.
The Yankees will be all in on Gerrit Cole this winter.
IMO, the Phillies will end up with Cole Hamels or Alex Wood.
I’m still upset Klentak didn’t sign Garrett Richards to a TJ rehab deal last winter. He’s probably going to be ready to go for the Padres as soon as next month.
Knapp is a backup, I have no problem with him. He’s not the reason why the Phillies are losing. He seems to be a hard worker, and it looks like his teammates like him.
But catch, this means one less arm in the Bullpen, because if we are to be a serious contender, we cannot have Knapp as a top pinch hitter. You keep him as a backup C, if you want, but that’s it. I thought, after last year, Williams would, at the very least be a good pinch hitter, but he is terrible. Clearly, he is a guy who needs a change of scenery. Maybe Williams for Norris? This issue remains about pitching. Why would Cole, last name, not get a contract equal to Corbin? And, will we change our stance on FA Pitching contracts? Cole, first name, if he is not re-signed in Chicago, and that is not a definite, is less expensive, but how much career does he have left?
Romus and Jim, Do either of you consider Boyd to be that good? And, if so, how high will you be willing to go? Would either of you trade Bohm and/or Howard? I don’t think I do for Boyd, and I can’t think of a SP that may, conceivably, be available that I would trade them for.
matt…..neither Howard, Bohm or Haseley would I’d offer.
Possibly one of Medina, JoJo or EDLS, their choice….. and then one of either VV or Pivetta, also their choice….and then maybe a player like either Nick Williams or Austin Listi.
When I saw Matt Boyd, he was virtually unhittable in 2014 in the FSL. He’s been hittable since. I don’t think I would trade much for him. Certainly not any of our top prospects.
However, I don’t think any prospect is untouchable. If offered wouldn’t you include Howard and Bohm in a trade for Trout? I think every prospect can be had in the right deal.
Foul, nay, nay we aren’t allowed to think about mythical trades for Trout. Strictly, ver botten!
Boyd’s last 6 starts he’s given up 4 or 5 earned runs (26 er in 35 ip) and 14 homers in 8 starts. Been following him closely since I drafted him late in my fantasy league this year- he’s striking out a lot still (55 in those 35 ip) but just havent felt confident in him to where id want to give up significant prospects and expect him to be my #2 down the stretch
Phillies now linked to Greinke and Ray:
Romus, I don’t like the fit with Greinke. First, I don’t think he comes here. He has never liked big markets. We are on his no-trade list, and I don’t think it is leverage, like MadBum, to get more money. Secondly, I don’t think Arizona just dumps his salary, so it still requires a heavy does of prospects. Ray, OTOH, we have been linked to longer than Mike Minor.
Cashman wants Ray also….and OFer Clint Frazier is a player the Phillies have no one comparable to give up.
Whether Grienke is a good fit is a very fair question. The mental makeup to play in a big market comes into question with Grienke. On top of that he is 35. On the other hand he is having a great season. Would cost a ton of payroll flexibility but a lite prospect load.
Grienke is a tough call, glad I get to just throw the stones 🙂
On Boyd/minor/or Ray, it could come down to who accepts the lowest prospect package from thr phillies.
I don’t think I’m going to be enjoying this prospect season, nervous about losing good young cheap talent for an overpay, on a middling slightly above avg player and or production
GREAT…if this isn’t a kick in the butt!
Sox are in on Gerit Cole it seems now.
That article is pure speculation. Doesn’t mean they’re in on him. Also, I don’t see JDM opting out after seeing the past couple of offseasons for FAs in their 30s. Could they ship his contract out? Maybe. But would they? I’m not sure about that. They’ve been on the losing end of a lot of pitcher contracts. Don’t think they’re super eager to add another big contract pitcher.
Agree. The RedSox and Dodgers inevitably get connected to virtually every big name free agent out there simply because they’re the RedSox and Dodgers, yet both teams have recently shown that’s not how they roll. They are both judicious in how they allocate their resources. It’s like one writer speculates or proposes something and another guy (like Joe Giglio) takes it and builds a campaign as if it’s remotely possible.
Buyer beware? How about READER beware?
I don’t see why people are enamored with Boyd, personally I think he’s no better than a good 4 . . . nothing wrong with that but it’s not going to move the needle (at least in my opinion). If i’m trading for him i’m offering Haseley and Romero and that’s my max, doubt it would get it done . . . and wouldn’t bother me if it didn’t. I’m just not that high on him.
@Eric D – agree with you about Boyd. Most of my recent tweets are about Buyers Beware on Matt Boyd. One dude noted that Boyd has improved every year blah blah….did we hear the same rationale for Cesar Hernandez? If Boyd indeed improved, he improved from a replacement pitched to a solid #4. It’s all about ceiling and upside and being has an upside of a #4. Being 28 yo, that upside is now limited.
Robby Ray is better than Matt Boyd based on pure stuff and track record and Robbie Ray is projected as #3 —- if Ray > Boyd and Ray is #3 so what is Boyd? a #4!!
Hmm Boyd no
Outside the box Duffy I dont think Phillies are reallly interested in selling hi lv prospects for a wildcard birth.
From reading the tea leaves over the last 2 weeks, my hunch is that somehow, the Phillies and DBacks work out an agreeable way for Zack Greinke to come here and anchor this volatile rotation. Hinkie doubts he would give his okay, as I have, but we all know what speaks loudest. Klentak and MacPhail have all but posted a billboard stating that their top young talent, especially Bohm or Howard, isn’t on the table.
A closer is also a big item and I’m confident that they’re aware of Neris’ limitations. Klentak’s trip to Detroit may have more to do with Shane Greene, who probably will cost a good prospect or two but not the top two.
I agree. Greinke makes the most sense. We won’t have to sell the farm, we can afford him, and he’d be an anchor than Jake was meant to be.
I really cannot stand Zack Greinke the human being, but it seems to me that there is little question that he’d be the best target, commanding less in prospects because the salary is so huge. If the price were reasonable (like Moniak and some lesser prospects), I’d hold my nose and do it. Honestly, though, I’d find it about as hard to root for him as for any player that’s ever been on the Phillies.
I don’t want to go down the Moniak debate, but absorbing grienkes contract for However many years is left, I think like 3 or 4, with the fact that he is 35, is a lot to ask for Moniak imo. We saw Halladay drop off a cliff, and speaking of cliffs, Lee as well. It’s super risky to take grienke is some
Regards. I’d rather ship out Ortiz and DLS. Something like that vs Moniak. I’m not ready to give up on him, especially when he has been improving at clip “near” haseley, which is now in the majors.
D-Backs are close to Phils in the standing, so
You are potentially buying out a WC competitor, but you also strengthen them to go after Gerrit Cole in the offseason. I’d pass if they wanted Moniak. Make them take 2 top 11- 18 level prospects or I’d pass. I bet they take it, with the Phils taking 80-90% of that contract
I’m not giving up on Moniak, I’m just telling you the price I would expect it to be. They are not going to want only second tier prospects like DLS and Ortiz – we think they are worth a lot, but they aren’t. Greinke has already lost his velocity and he’s still a very good pitcher. There’s no reason to believe he’ll fall off a cliff moving forward. But I’m fine with them not getting him.
Greinke is under contract for 2 more years after this one. He’ll be 37. I think he could manage the bridge to Howard and company. But yes, I get our anxiety over his anxieties. You never know….
….regarding Moniak – my hunch is that the Phillies would prefer to offer Haseley over Mickey Mo. But I’m not quite sure Greinke would cost either. Ortiz? Listi? Medina? Maybe.
….reason being – rightly or wrongly, Moniak was there 1-1, Haseley was not. Just saying, the public opinion fallout would deter them IMO.
*mark….if they get Greinke…might as well also get Trevor Bauer….then the three of Arrieta/Greinke/Bauer can have a love fest in the locker room.
Romus, they could create a spot in the locker room call a-hole corner (enter at your own risk). Not quite the same a macho row but whatever works 🙂
Romus, ala Curt Schilling in Ed Wade’s words, “a horse every 5th day, a horse’s ass the other four.”
If they are making moves with prospects based on public opinion as opposed to their own views of who is more valuable, then we are in deep trouble. For what it’s worth, if you made me choose between Haseley and Moniak, I’d pause for a moment, but would choose Haseley – I think he’s going to be a very nice player going forward and he’s got more power than you’d think.
For Greinke, I’d offer Medina, Arizona’s choice of Ranger Suarez or Deivi Grullon plus a PTBNL which would be Odubel Herrera, Ariz.’s ‘take-back’ on salary.
Many people here still hold out hope for Odubel to return to his 2016 form. The league has figured him out and he hasn’t figured out the league by adjusting. He’s not intelligent enough, not that it requires a college degree. Talent certainly takes an athlete so far but if he can’t scale the walls of adversity both on AND off the field, especially those of his own doing, it’s time to let some other team try to create a change of scenery. I’ve proposed that he be the PTBNL before to which a few comments were opposed due either to his non-value on the market or the possibility that he’ll rebound.
I understand that Greinke fits in people’s minds after MacPhail’s comments about saving the top prospects and using $ to acquire help. But, he has a no-trade clause, and we are on it. He is not a FA after this year, so what is his incentive to waive it to come here? And, his dislike for big cities is a mental thing, so why would we think his pitching would be successful here? And, lastly, Arizona isn’t moving him just to dump his salary. I bet they want high level prospects as well.
The guy I like pitched well against us Friday night held us to 1 run in 5.2 with 7K’s. Jordan Lyles is undervalued IMO. He’s a rental but he’ll only be 29 after this season and should be very easy to extend.
And the best part he probably costs us very little in prospect capital.
I’m happy that some of us are now warm to the acquire Gerrit Cole (and Cole Hamels) in the offseason idea.
I understand that teams should not be building their team with FAs, but the Phillies have a core of young and inexpensive talents. JTR may not be homegrown, but he’s not the expensive/overpaid FA. Harper is technically the expensive FA in the team since Arrieta’s contract is off after next year and Segura’s contract is not albatross.
I’m fine with them adding two legitimate FA starters – much better than trading our best young prospects to get them. Going on to his age 36 season Hamels should only command a 2-3 year contract (probably 3 years) and it will be at an AAV of around $16-20 m – they can afford that especially with Arrieta coming off the books after next year. Cole would be the big ticket FA – would likely have to give him 7 years, but whatever, they need him and can afford him – it’s really that simple.
Moving on from CeHe and Franco after the season offsets the roughly $20m needed to take on a contract like Hamels.
Signing Cole will cost much more (thinking something like 6-$180) but he fits under the current structure in 2020 and they get relief from Arrieta in 2021..
Except I undersold Cole. Expect something close to the Grienke deal. 6 years, $210 Million
I know the Yankees drew a line in the sand (on years and dollars) last winter when it came to Patrick Corbin … but … I’m pretty certain they’ll be prepared to go as far as they have to in order to land Gerrit Cole this offseason. Cole has been Brian Cashman’s white whale since drafting him in the first round of the 2008 draft, but failing to sign him.
Cole Hamels makes a whole lot of sense for the Phillies as a FA this winter, especially if he’s not slapped with a QO by the Cubs. Alex Wood is another possibility if he can get back to the mound some time soon, and shows he’s regained his health.
The bullpen should be the most intriguing matter to follow after this season. Aroldis Chapman will probably opt out of his deal with the NYY. If they pour tons of money into a Gerrit Cole deal, they may pass on a long term/big money extension with Chapman. I see Chapman as more of a possibility for the Phillies than Gerrit Cole.
I could see a 2020 Phillies rotation looking something like:
* Aaron Nola
* Cole Hamels
* Zach Eflin
* Jake Arrieta
* Daniel Norris
* Nick Pivetta as the swingman/next man up when someone gets injured
2020 Phillies bullpen may include:
* Aroldis Chapman (closer)
* David Robertson
* Hector Neris
* Ser Ant’ny
* Adam Morgan
* Jose Alvarez
Wait, the Phillies didn’t want to give a 31 year old Kimbrel 3 years, $43M, but you’re saying the Phillies will give more than that to Chapman at age 32?
Yes. Did you watch Kimbrel pitch at the end of last season (in the playoffs)? He was far from automatic. He looked more like Hector Neris. So far, in year one of his Cubs’ deal, Kimbrel has looked just ok (at best). He’s in decline already.
Chapman is still pitching like a shhutdown closer. Plus, he’s LH. He’s more worth the risk for the Phillies.
That’s probably right and probably what he will cost and they are probably ready to pay that. It will all be a question of whether he wants to be here or somewhere else.
This is going to be a serious amount of money being thrown around. Gerrit Cole should get $30M per year, Hamels should get $20M+ per year (I know he wants to come back but why would he take a discount when he’s still effective), and JTR will eventually get something close to $20M per year. That’s be at least 4 players totalling already over $100M for 2020, not including Arrieta. The Phillies will immediately have the highest yearly payroll ever in their existence.
Hamels’ age, his prior earnings (he has had his big contract) and, hopefully, his desire to be a Phillie, should make him more affordable. I’m guessing like 3 years and $50-55 million or so should do it, perhaps with one or more vesting options.
We have to keep in mind that it’s going to be Hamels’ age 36 season next year – that , by itself, will dramatically decrease the value of the contract, especially if it’s for more than a year or two.
Yes, he will be 36 next year but he was never a hard thrower so it’s not like his fb velocity took a drastic tumble. He’s making $20M this season, and he’s on pace for 4 WAR. Sure, he wants to come back, but you’re banking on him to take a discount. If 3 years, $50-55M is what it will take, you might find a lot of teams being in on that.
I’m not entirely banking on him to take a discount or, if it is a discount, a particularly heavy one. It’s very hard for me to imagine him getting paid more than $20 M AAV – age does matter, especially in this advanced era of metrics. Now, I think he could be an outlier, but it’s hard to get paid like an outlier.
I think the days of pitchers getting Greinke/Kershaw deals are over. IMO, Gerrit Cole likely gets a 6 yr/156 million dollar contract. The Phillies have shown no indication they would be willing to spend like that on an arm. Cole Hamels may get 2 years/36 million. Aroldis Chapman could pull down a 3 year/48 million dollar pact.
If that’s the contract he will take I’d sign him to that in a minute. I think you’re wrong about the big contract, however, I’d be really surprised if it’s less than 6/$180M and think it will probably be close to $200M, but, again, I’d love to be wrong about this.
I almost want to promise to ban myself for 6 months if Gerrit Cole gets a 6 year/200 million dollar contract … but I’m done doing that.
Patrick Corbin (FA about the same age as Cole will be) only got 6 years/140 million. Cole has/had a more robust resume, but Corbin should age more gracefully.
Cole is striking out 13.5 batters per 9 innings. That’s rarified air. To give you some context, Randy Johnson never had a year where he struck out batters at the same rate that Cole is striking out batters this year. Nolan Ryan never struck out more than 11.5 batter per 9 in any of his years. Scherzer’s best K per 9 inning rate is this year at 12.6.
He’s going to get a haul and it’s going to be more, and perhaps a lot more, than what Corbin got.
catch … I agree with most of what you post. However, we mainly don’t see eye to eye when it comes to future contracts. I think you tend to over value what the current market will bare.
IIRC, you tried to convince me Aaron Nola would get a Cole Hamels like deal if the Phillies signed him to a LTC in the offseason. I tried to explain Hamels had exhausted his arbitration years when he signed his long term deal. Nola’s deal would be more in line with the LTC’s agreed to by Chris Sale and Corey Kluber (plus inflation). Nola got even (slightly) less than I had predicted.
When it comes to contracts, it’s all about comps (that’s why the union frowns on members taking discounts). Teams are going to use Corbin’s deal when negotiating with Cole. Yes, he’s going to get more than Corbin got (6 years/140 million), but it is going to look a lot more like 6 years/156 million than 6 years/200 million. Trust me.
6 years at 200 million dollars = 33.3 million AAV
That’s a higher AAV than either Harper (25.4 mil AAV) or Machado (30 mil AAV) got last winter.
Hey, the Phillies got Nola to take a well below-market deal by getting to agree to a contract to buy out his arb years and a couple of FA years – that was awesome!!! They also got a pretty good deal on Harper, although they are paying for like 3 years at the end where he likely won’t be worth very much and Harper’s wild year-to-year inconsistency cost him a huge amount of money. Manny got $30 M AAV over 10 years and would have gotten a higher AAV if he had sought a shorter contract or hadn’t been, well, so damned Manny.
And, yes, I do understand the difference in contract value that a player experiences both before and after his arbitration years have passed and he is free agent eligible. If Cole pitches like a Cy Young candidate through the end of the year, I suspect he will get a 6-7 year contract worth at least $180 million or, better stated, around $30 m AAV. If you can sign him for much less than that, then he’s a bargain for sure. This will be a good test of the market and we will see who is right, but if someone gets him for like $26 or 27 m AAV, that will be a hell of deal for the team regardless of what the market is, assuming you value a WAR at around $6-7 million. He should easily produce the value of that contract and probably a lot more.
I agree with Hinkie. The last 2 off seasons have clearly indicated a serious swing back from the humongous pay day for veteran arms. Cole would be the top free agent pitcher this winter but if he holds out for anything close to 6/$200M, he may be waiting until mid-2020 and get 4/$120 from a big market team in contention. 5 years ago? Yes he’d probably get it without much haggling. This time around? No. And the new CBA will do little to reverse the trend since younger star players will finally get paid earlier in their career.
I think the lower salaries are much more a reflection of the available talent than they are of the marketplace. Yes, the owners are much more careful, but with the right pitcher, you’re looking at another huge contract.
Another solid outing from Urias from the DSL team. 18 years from Mexico, 6,6feet 220 pounds. Now 0,81 ERA in 7 starts. Anyone got scouting on him?
No offense to anyone on here but if it takes more than 20m plus to get Hamels then you’d be crazy to sign him, esp for 3 years. There’s no way that’s what he’ll get. I’m looking at something like what Happ signed in the off season. And again, if it’s more than that, thanx but no thanx. Let some other team be the idiots who offer 20 plus for 3 years.
No, he’ll get more than Happ and he should, but it should be more than $20 M AAV – too much risk at that price.
Agreed. Happ got 2 years/34 million. 2 years/36 million is reasonable for Hamels (and that’s assuming he’s not anchored with a QO by the Cubs).
That’s a part of it . . . why would they not offer a 1 year QO? He accepts it and they get him at a “decent” price and don’t have to worry about more than 1 year. This all plays into why I don’t see him getting 20m a year and def not over 20m a year. How many pitchers with over 2700 IP at age 36 get 3 years at 20 plus m? I would assume you could count the number on one hand (strictly a guess).
Hamels deserves more and will get more as he is a superior player – even if the “more” is an extra year at the same rate. I’m on record with 3 years at $50-55M. I’d pay him that in a heartbeat and he’d be well worth it.
I’d be perfectly fine with those numbers, I was speaking on 20 plus m.
Just can’t see anyone giving Hamels three years (at any amount of dollars).
There might be a vesting option. Could see two years and $40 m.
Me neither, actually I don’t understand all the excitement about him. Don’t get me wrong, I loved him while he was here, but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then and I don’t see it as a good investment.
jim….some of which may determined Hamels worth could be decided by how finishes up this season with the Cubs…..any let down in August thru September may be a red-flag for teams willing to take a risk with him next season on any contract more than 2/3 years.
As they saying goes….it is not how you start but how you finish.
The reason it would make sense is that Hamels today is like 97% of the pitcher that left in 2015. He’s retained virtually all of his value to date and his stuff lends itself to a long career. If he doesn’t get hurt a lot (yup, it’s a big “if”), he projects very well over the next several years.
I’d say Cole would be wise to take a QO if he got it (assuming he likes Chicago) why put yourself through what Keuchel and others have gone through. I’d even make it known to the Cubs brass and maybe they don’t slap him with it.
Take it get it over with then re-enter the market the following year unencumbered.
Unless he gets seriously hurt before the end of the year, Hamels will do better on a FA contract than the QO – maybe the money for year one would be the same, but he can lock down some pretty good pay and additional years by becoming a FA. His situation will be different than Keuchel’s and Kimbrel’s two players who were perceived as losing their stuff. Hamels is a fairly safe bet compared to those two.
I wouldn’t trade a second round pick for Hamels if Cubs QO him
Now this is where Klentak should step up.
If he is aware that they plan on signing a QO guy….like a Gerit Cole or a Cole Hamels (though the Cubs may yet refrain from offering him), then he should make every effort to recoup that 2nd round loss with a trade for a Round A or B CBA pick from a small market team……..he would also have to be willing to sacrifice a prospect in that 10-15 ranking range to get that pick, along with the slot money that goes with it.
That would involve some creativity on his part.
Would we be acquiring Hamels as a #4? #3? #2? That needs to be answered first. If he and Nola are the top 2 arms in this rotation, then no, I would not pursue him. If we acquired a #1a or #2 first, then I’m on board with getting Hamels at a reasonable price. This should not be a standalone transaction but dependent on prioritizing the acquisition of Gerrit Cole via free agency or trading for a comparable talent.
Of course it may be a moot point with Hamels this off-season if Klentak makes the trade with the Tigers for Boyd, and maybe Norris or Greene, included along with Nick Castellanos in the deal.
I would think Boyd is the 2 or 3 and Hamels wouild have to be signed for a 3 or 4 or 5….which will not command the money that Hamels may want….unless he gives Philly a ‘home town’ discount of sorts.
Still I think Hamels can be had for an AAV of somewhere between a range of $15M and $18M, which is not an exorbitant salary demand.
I don’t think acquiring Hamels is contingent on where he is in the rotation. Wherever he is, he’s an upgrade over the bottomless pit that is currently there. Where it becomes an issue is cost and length and how much you plan on giving another FA.
My point is that, along with the contract’s length and cost, if it’s only going to be Nola, Hamels and a whole lot of nothing, why bother signing him? Klentak MUST acquire another SP besides Hamels or the 2020 season is no more than another punt. Just like the GM was aggressive in fortifying the lineup last off season, he needs to be that aggressive in solidifying the rotation. I can’t imagine any of us being impressed with signing Hamels alone. That’s all I’m saying.
Yeah, I don’t understand that reasoning. Adding Hamels under a reasonable contract is an absolute plus regardless of whether they add a big ticket free agent or not. It’s one more solid spot in the rotation and one less spot that is troubled. They are a wild card contender now so how could the addition of a 3-5 WAR Cole Hamels hurt? Again, I really don’t understand the reasoning.
8mark…I believe that the Phillies and Klentak already realize that…Hamels is not the main target for their pitching upgrade plan this off-season.
If anything he will complement whatever direction they go.
I am of the opinion they will concentrate on obtaining a starter with long term implications that fits the TOR upside.
Further, Hamels needs to right himself this season, he has not as of yet, been cleared for a rehab assignment and the oblique may not be responding as they want. It has been almost one month since he pitched last, and the Cubs are hoping he gets himself back for the last 10/12 starts of this year as they fight for play-off positioning.
No way we’ll get Gerrit Cole. He’ll get the same six years and lots of money that Corbin got. I expect he’ll stay in Houston. We’ll see.
I do think we’ll resign Hamels to come back but it will take a two year $35M deal. Pitching is not cheap. I do not agree that you have to decide whether he’s a 2/3/4/5 before you sign him. You only have to know that he’d be an improvement and he wants to play here. He’s a WS champion and the MVP, how can that not help in the clubhouse. He’s the last guy still playing from the 2008 team, I think.
I don’t know Houston’s salary structure, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they wanted to keep him. He’s fantastic and so are they, so who could blame them for trying or him for staying. FYI, we’ve been talking about what it would cost to sign him and I do expect if Houston extends him early and he doesn’t hit the open market, he will take a discount, and perhaps a substantial one.
Sorry about this catch … but … I’m going to disagree again. Under no circumstance is Gerrit Cole (who is now just two months away from reaching free agency) going to take a substantial discount to stay in Houston. If he re-signs there, it will be for market/very near market value.
You may be right about the discount. But typically elite guys who don’t let the FA market take its course usually take a discount, but I suppose not always. Arenado didn’t take a discount.
Gerrit Cole is not taking a discount, especially with Scott Boras as his agent.
Oh Boras is his agent – forget I ever said that. Period.
Happ pitched a little over 30 innings for us in 2008. But he’s the only other one that’s played this year.
Everybody can breath a sigh of relief (pun intended) – Fernando Salas has cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA. Phew! Can’t imagine losing him….
Glad I was in the recliner when that news broke!
Yes, it was a risky move on their part. Can you imagine the outcry if he had been claimed and then had a couple of good outing for another team?
The rumour now is that the Braves are willing to part with prized pitcher Ian Anderson (a consensus top 50 prospect) in trade discussions. If that’s the case, the Braves have enough trade ammo to get anybody they want. I would be shocked if the Braves don’t get Marcus Stroman.
FWIW, Jon Morosi is saying that as of today, the Braves and Blue Jays are not having any trade discussions.
One reliever is not returning to help.
Tommy Hunter underwent season-ending surgery to repair his flexor tendon.
The surgery was performed by Dr. James Andrews. If there’s good news here, it’s that after examining Hunter’s UCL, it was determined that it didn’t need to be repaired surgically. Hunter threw just 5 1/3 innings this year for Philadelphia, but he should be fully recovered by the start of the 2020 campaign.
SOURCE: Scott Lauber on Twitter
Jul 23, 2019, 3:57 PM ET
If I’m not mistaken, Hunter’s contract is up at the end of 2019. So…he’s pretty irrelevant at this point. So is Neshek for that matter.
Klentak has no luck with relievers it seems…..relievers of importance.
So let us see what now happens with Robertson as we head into the stretch run of August and September…
Romus, I wouldn’t be surprised if Klentak’s visit to Detroit is more about Greene than Boyd. It’s high time he and Gabe get off their undefined reliever roll train and hop aboard the conventional lights out closer express.
Greene would be a nice addition……hopefully he stays healthy if he does come to Philly.
Gabe has had extremely defined reliever roles. The roles have just been filled by bad pitchers because none of them can stay healthy.
No, seriously. Look at who has our saves. Out of 25, Neris has 18. Irvin, Eickhoff, Nicasio, and Alvarez each have 1, and all of those were non-traditional/out of necessity. The only other pitcher with any is Neshek with 3, and we all know why he didn’t rack up any more.
Niscanio as well. A fair amount of money coming off the books
Saw the tigers beat writer Jason Beck on twitter,
“Tigers are believed to have asked for Nationals top prospect Carter Kieboom in a Shane Greene trade”
Doubtful any reliever – closer or not – gets anybody’s top prospect unless he’s Mariano Rivera 2.0
From what I’ve seen and heard, insiders and execs think it’s becoming less likely that either Bumgarner or Boyd are traded, for different reasons.
Stroman is considered most likely to be traded while Minor would get the biggest return IF Texas decides to move him. But that’s the pulse for today….
DBacks (Greinke and Ray)…..and the Mets (Thor and Wheeler) may be the two teams that are the wild card in this latest July deadline scenario.
Man, if you ever wanna feel better about any other team’s personnel decisions, just compare them to the Giants.
I have zero idea how you look at that team and even CONSIDER not trading one of your only trade assets. Especially when you look at what the farm system has to offer.
DanK…I think a lot has to do with loyalty to Bruce Bochy in his final two months in baseball before retiring.
The team is on the hottest run in baseball now and they may want Bochy to go out fighting to the end.
The three world championships under his helm may be more meaningful than getting a prospect or prospects for MadBum
Romus, I’m not so sure that Bochy’s successor would appreciate that type of sentiment, considering the LAD are head and shoulders above the league, let alone the NL West, with aging players and nothing on the farm.
True…..but loyalty is loyalty…and they are the hottest team in the league right now.
Per the Cole Hamels discussion above – I would be thinking if I were him – fat chance – that he has had an extraordinary relatively injury free career, played for some of the best teams of his era, and would welcome a return “home” for a final run of 2 – 3 years with his old team. He knows Philly, the team, and many of the staff . I would think there is alot of comfort knowing what you are going to face and deal with, when you are looking at the end of your career. I could see FO making him a fair offer for 2 years with an option – for something around 50 ish million ; 20 ; 16 ; mutual option 8. I don’t think he wants to go to another city after the 3 he has been in – other than one he already knows. Without being able to chronicle every one of his Phillies return appearances, he just seems to be in attendance at every meaningful Phillies event which implies he has still has very strong connections. Having made as much $$ as he has I would think he would want something predictable.
I think he still has a house in the area….unless he donated it to charity like he did with his $9M house in 2017, when he pitched for the Rangers.
Unusual lineup for tonight. Kingery leads off, Rhys bats 2d and Bryce bats 3rd. JT cleanup. Cesar 5th, Franco, Haseley, Quinn and Williams bat 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th. 5-9 doesn’t look like it would scare many teams.
Yea, that’s a weak bottom of the order
I have nothing intelligent to say.
Also, their apparent success has nothing to do with Moniak. He could still end up being the best player to come out of that draft class. And even if he’s not, the #1 overall rarely is. You should look at the Phillies’ whole draft rather than just one of the picks. Part of the reason he was chosen was to save money for others.
Also expect college players to move quicker. Will know the true results in about 7-8 years
Moniak is having his best year and getting better. Not sure what u r talking about. Look at his stats this yr as the 5th youngestkid in AA as a barely 21 trying old. Do you realize Puk is 3 years and a month older?
That was meant for you goose. Doesn’t seem like you really follow along too closely. That would be like Mickey being in Triple A in 3 years
That approach did not work in 2016 for the Phillies. The Phillies would have had their 3B if they used later the college bat approach.
Puk and Anderson still have to face AAA with the pro ball . Its a big difference then AA ,plus Puk coming off TJ surgery which seems to be the kiss of death anymore.
Finished watching Boyd against the Phillies. He’s more of a #3 pitcher, fb is decent but he has a really nice slider. His slider is lethal against lefties, I would imagine that they can’t pick it up that well. Gave the Phillies a steady diet of non-fastballs and only got hurt when he served a cookie fastball to Quinn in the middle of the plate. So Boyd has value even as a #3, but I wouldn’t give a top 100 guy. If the Tigers are asking for a haul, I don’t think they will get it.
I think we need a left handed starter if we are facing the dodgers in the post-season.
Cesar Hernandez should consider batting exclusively left handed.
Daniel Stumpf is the gift that keeps on giving.
Thank God they were playing the Tigers. They would have lost to almost any other team tonight. That said, how about the Braves? They lost to the Royals in Atlanta.
Aside from an occasional big hit like Hoskins’ the last 2 games, the overall approach at the plate has been beyond futile. Collectively this team is regularly watching cookies pass and then flailing at the pitcher’s pitch.
As for Boyd, he’s not a TOR but man, he would still give this rotation a boost. Curious to see if he actually gets traded and for how much in return. The guy pounds the strike zone.
Nick Pivetta should watch film from tonight’s outing (granted it was the Tigers but still…) whenever he goes into his funk. The bullpen may suit him fine.
….and I know he’s limited defensively but Nicky Castles can flat out rake like a guy who knows what he’s looking for at the plate and not hanging out too much with John Mallee.
@8mark – the Phillies had a bad approach last night. Cesar, Kingery and Nick have no idea what to expect. If Cutch and Segura are in the line up, Boyd will not last beyong 3rd inning.
I’m still not enamored with Boyd. SL is the only good pitch he had. FB plays up because of command and because the Phillies seemed not ready to hit a high FB. Boyd throws a CB and a CH but rarely.
Boyd’s highest ceiling is a #3 which if everybody went well. But the poor GB% and GO/AO will not sit well with Boyd and he will be close to a #4/#5 if pitching in CBP —- with that being said, I’ll take Medina over him anytime!
***everything (not everybody)…
You certainly hit the nail on the head. They are difficult to watch sometimes and last night was one of those games. We spent our money on bats this year and I am still waiting for them to explode. I get sick of LOB’s and no clue on how to move runners like Rhys finally did. Bullpen was excellent though, before the year is out we’ll put it altogether at least for one game.
Multiple reasons for this team’s malaise this season.
One …. a cumulative 8-8 vs Marlins (6-7) and Tigers (2-1)….with 7 games left (one today vs Detroit and six more with the Marlins)
With 23 total games vs those two teams..Phillies should be winning between 15 and 17 games, minimum.
It looks like that will not happen unless they can put it all together in the last 60 games..
That record vs the Marlins, right there is reason they are fighting for a WC spot vs being up 3 games for the top spot. 6-7 vs the marlins, should be more like 10-4 or 11-3 … 6-7 is what will stick out at thr end of the season.
Imo, the way the bullpen has collapsed is pretty remarkable between hunter, Neshek, Robertson, and Sir Anthony. Luckily hunter, Neshek, and nisacio are off the books next year, which is a lot of money to improve the team elshewhere. Say like, overpay fro G. Cole, and move cheap priced options VV and Pivetta to the pen. That would move the needle. Herrera has a pay day coming, hopefully that won’t be dead money or he can be traded.
In looking at the playoff window in the near future, Howard and bohm can’t get here fast enough.
On Gerrit Cole, Pivetta and Vinny – I’ve been suggesting this for a while now. I’m still hopefully that Pivetta can carve out a nice career as a #3 SP, but right now, his best role is to anchor that bullpen with Vinny and Seranthony. I’m really hoping that Eflin can step up this year – he’s been very good when he’s on and we saw it at the beginning of the season. I’m not sure what happened. Eickhoff as a reliable #5 is another disappointment. I don’t expect Eick to be a #3 like some of us think, but he should be a solid #4/#5 with his CB. Another disappointment is Delos Santos who wowed a lot of people last year similar to what Damon Jones did. 3 young SPs who showed success but disappoints!
On Herrara, I have him with Cesar and Neris in my sell high to trade list since more than 2 years ago. Herrera and Cesar are in the heart of my discussions with the WAR lords in the past — both are good players but secondary role players and not core players. These players are normally expendable.
So you’re bringing up all your past suggestions that make you look good, but you’re saying nothing about the other stuff that don’t make you look good? Got it. I normally don’t pat myself on the back (because I don’t have to), but if you want to bring up more hindsight stuff, I can do that.
Signing any japanese players, especially Yu Darvish.
Hyping up Pivetta to the moon when he has done zilch.
Trading for Machado that won’t involve a top 100 prospect.
Some strange attachment to Adonis Medina even though he’s not a top 100 prospect anymore and his SO rate has sank.
So if you want to take veiled shots at “War lords”, I’m right here.
Note that I did not start this conversation, but I’m not going to let somebody take shots at me for my suggestions.
@Guru – thank you for responding to my post. I appreciate your continued support!
If you want me to put on record I confirm that:
1) I’m in the group that push for Ohtani and Kikuchi. They are good pitchers so nothing wrong with that. I also prefer Darvish over Arrieta but I don’t agree with the contract that the Cubs signed him.
2) I like Pivetta because he got good stuff. I still believe that he can be a very good #3 but I prefer him to pitch in the bullpen for now. I think I’ve posted this a number of times and I don’t see anything wrong with this.
3) Yes, I don’t want to give up Medina and Haseley (Phillies Top 100 prospects in 2018 excluding the recently drafted Bohm) for Machado last year. BAL netted Yusniel Diaz as the only Top 100 prospect in the Machado deal so it looks like that no other teams are willing to give up their Top 100 for a rental which is close to what I expect.
4) I like the Phillies to keep all their top MLB ready arms specifically Medina and Howard unless they are going to get a stud in return. Regardless of what other say about Medina, he is the 2nd best pitching prospect that the Phillies have – either keep him or trade him for a stud player (bat or arm).
From time to time, I tend to keep repeating myself like a broken record, but if you want to bring this up every time — you have the freedom to do so.
Also on Darvish – the lack of QO implication is what appeals to me unlike Arrieta or any other option with QO.
@Kuko, You have your own opinions and I have mine. We disagree on WAR and that’s it. If you want to pat yourself on the back, that’s fine. But I take exceptions when you call me or others “war lords” as a negative. You clearly said that as a dig to me and others. Personally, we can do without the name calling on these boards. I’m here to gain information and to help others. If you don’t like my point of view, that’s fine. But we can still be respectful on these boards.
I didn’t realize De Los Santos wowed anyone last season.
@bak – “Delos Santos who wowed a lot of people last year similar to what Damon Jones did” ….. so the reference to Enyel is his minors (not majors).
@guru – so you can call out but you don’t want to be called out? ok, i get it. you can always disagree or you can also choose not to reply to any post that you don’t like.
@ Kuko, who have I called out? I don’t have a need to call out anybody. Just remember, that you called me out first, and I responded.
Looks like Yankees could be leaning Ray now.
Again, another article based entirely on mere speculation. NYY may certainly be in on Ray but there’s nothing in this piece to suggest they are even talking to Arizona.
Post guys more than likely get some ‘inside scoops/leaks’..I am more inclined to believe what they print vs what Joe Gigliuo throws up against the wall every week in his rumor trades.
DMAR…perhaps your wish for Castellanos in a Phillies uni could unfold.
“……..Castellanos through rumors, but the Phillies — who are in need of starting pitching — are also interested in breakout hurler Matthew Boyd.
Just in case you were wondering how limited Castellanos’ market is, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs published an article on Tuesday with a trade idea that involves only the hitter going to Chicago. Detroit’s return? Triple-A shortstop Zack Short, which Szymborski sums up well here:………..
“Short is interesting, though hardly a top prospect, and I think interesting is all the Tigers ought to expect in return.”…………..
It’s not that trading Castellanos in the past would’ve yielded the Tigers a king’s ransom with regard to prospects. His market has always been limited. But since the possibility of trading him feels like more of a foregone conclusion right now, Detroit needs to find a way to maximize any impending return…..”
Phillies would have to give up a bit for Boyd, but the Castellanis portion of the deal may be something on the order of a Gamboa type player.
The offensive approach leaves we shaking my head. Rhys wins it in the 15th inning, and says he was just trying to put the ball in play. Wins the game on a pitch the other way. Kapler is on the radio explaining that they have two swings. An “A” swing where they are trying to damage the ball, and a “B” swing where they are trying to get the ball in play to score runs, an example he used was runners in scoring position and less than 1 out. Spread out, choke up, do other things that will shorten your swing. Great ideas!~ Why don’t we do that? Rhys just did it, Bryce does it, his approach must change because his success with runners on is dramatic. JT, who I really like, struck out with runners on 2d and 3rd with 1 out, and he sure did not adjust his swing with 2 strikes. Cesar had an awful AB, flailing at the 1st pitch with 2d and 3rd and no outs. To me, it is as big a problem as the lack of quality SP.
It’s crazy that from time to time the Phillies bats play to the level of its competition. It’s been a while now that the Phillies can make an ordinary SP looks like a CY Candidate.
The Phillies did not score well because they don’t have a good game plan against Boyd. Boyd throws a FB and SL 90% of the time but Cesar, Kingery and Nick have no clue what to expect, I expect that from Kingery and Nick being young and aggressive batter, but Cesar is bad.
I know that I only speculating but Cutch and Segura will make Boyd pay with that limited pitching repertoire he had. Boyd basically throws a high FB and a SL down and in. No wonder the ERA is bloated despite of a very good command and K/BB ratio.
Currently on the DL or done for the season . . .
with Neris getting ready to serve a suspension, Arrieta a pitch away from being done for the season, Segura missing time due to a heel injury.
With just about their whole bullpen down and 2 of their 3 starting OF gone for the season, it’s truly a surprise this team is even where they are at. Crazy.
Whatever Klentak does by the deadline, it would be nice if he did it before Friday night when the Braves arrive. I know that won’t determine his actions but this roster needs some oomph. That 5 thru 8 (or 9 vs Detroit) is pretty paltry. And to continue to hold our breath when anybody but Nola starts has gotten old fast.
My acquired SP guess of the day is
With the possibility that the Phillies would trade either Haseley or Moniak, considering that they are somewhat of the same type of player (with only slight differences), I ask myself who I would be more concerned would come back to haunt me. That answer for me is Moniak. While Haseley has already arrived in the Show, Moniak strikes me as a more dynamic, catalytic, and charismatic player. Of course that’s projection on my part. But if I had to, I would first trade Haseley for that big piece.
If we can get a MLB average player or better for Moniak i’m pulling the trigger. I’ve seen his recent numbers but it’s still nothing that excites me (does anyone have his home/away splits?, remember he’s in a hitter friendly ballpark in a hitter friendly league).
Rumors are swirling that we are in talks for Trevor B. I’ve said before i’d love to have him while others have blasted his demeanor off the field . . . to me I’ve seen a player who has matured however I’ve also followed him more closely than most (probably). I’d be really curious to know what it would take for him. Medina/Moniak and then some? Grab him and then you can go after Hamels or Cole or both.
Nola/Bauer/Hamels/Arrieta/Eflin is a solid rotation.
Nola/Cole/Bauer/Hamels/Arrieta is even better.
@Eric D – I’m with you on Trevor Bauer even though my man Hinkie is not on board with me. I will not deny the potential head ache that Trevor Bauer can bring, but a winning culture and a winning team can change that. At the end of the day, Trevor Bauer will like to win and earn $$ —- if he is really a knuckle head and loves to pick up a fight, he is already in boxing or MMA or UFC.
I love players with good physical abilities – not players having a good year or good whatever. The Phillies need good players to win —- Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Aroldis Chapman, etc — get them all!
I also liked that you double down with my Cole Hamels pick. I’ve been wanting Cole Hamels back even before the Cubbies traded for him. When Herrera is at his highest and Tocci still a top prospect (TEX loved them both), I suggested Herrera, Vinny, Tocci and some more for Cole Hamels and Cole Ragans — obviously the response is that you can’t trade Herrera because of the WAR this and WAR that.
Oh i’d love to have Hamels finish his career in Philly, esp bc he will be a solid piece and not just a nostalgic one. Yesterday I was only questioning the cost, if it’s for 20 plus M i’m against it.
I think the Phillies can sweeten the deal for Hamels by providing him a post MLB career of a consultant/advisor or pitching coach. Other than Nola, these young arms need to learn how to throw an awesome CH (Change Up). Also, Hamels learning how to throw a CU (Cutter) helps him go up another level. The CU saved Drew Anderson from getting the early ax. The great Mariano Rivera doesn’t throw heat but he dominates batter with his CU.
I don’t know what your problem is with WAR and the people who cite WAR, but if your needling causes a dispute, the ramifications will be like hockey, both players will be penalized,
I agree. I thumbs up this!
@JimP – I’m not sure if this post is for me — but I’ve clarified my position with the WAR discussion. My issue is with the “misuse” of WAR. While WAR calculation is complicated, the definition and use of the stat is simple and self explanatory.
Most of the I note the misuse(s) of WAR in certain discussion…. I don’t want to say what will happen next….
Just saw the Morosi rumor of Bauer talks between PHI and CLE. Doesn’t make sense since the Tribe are not only in the WC hunt but charging for the division lead.
CLE knows that Bauer will not sign with them long term and they wanted to drop Bauer like a hot potato for a while now. Bauer is just a really good player that’s why CLE is sucking it up. But if CLE can get a couple of MLB ready young players that can help them now, they might pull the trigger. If Eflin is playing like when he started the season + Adam Haseley + Francisco Morales, CLE might consider.
Bauer leading MLB in innings with 152- by my math he’s averaging about 113 pitchers per start- only 3 starts of out 23 had under 100 pitches, when he went 4 or 5 and had his three worst starts of the year. Been wondering all year if Bauer just fights coming out, or if Cleveland is just using him up with plans to trade him.
Eflin might not pass a physical if traded. His “heavy feeling” might be attributed to his knees.
Bauer will cost Howard, not Medina. If the Indians are willing to make Medina as the center piece, I would do that type of deal in an instant.
I don’t believe the Phillies would part with either Howard or Medina. Bauer is a FA after the 2020 season. His 4th arbitration will probably be quite a bit more than his $13M salary for 2019.
Based on ceiling – Moniak is Yelich and Haseley is Brett Gardner so it’s going to be Moniak. But taking “risk” into consideration, Haseley has better chance to reach his ceiling of a Brett Gardner than Moniak to a Yelich.
IMO, it’s all about who the Phillies will get if they traded Haseley or Moniak. Even if Moniak becomes a Yelich but the Phillies got Aaron Nola or DeGrom type in return, then, it’s a wash and doesn’t hurt.
If the Phillies lost both for nothing (i.e. Rule 5, DFA, FA), then it’s a different story.
I don’t know how anyone can say that Moniak’s ceiling is Yelich, MAYBE 2014 Yelich but in no world is Moniak a perennial MVP candidate.
I understand that Yelich exceeded the Yelich ceiling himself which even the experts did not see. I’m making reference to the “original” Yelich ceiling – basically the Marlins Yelich not the Brewers Yelich.
Also, I get it that making comparison to a Bellinger or Yelich right now is hard because both are playing out of their mind.
KuKO……”Based on ceiling – Moniak is Yelich and Haseley is Brett Gardner…….”….oh boy!
Mickey Mo may have had a ceiling of Yelich on September 1st, 2016…not so sure that is his current ceiling.
Maybe Steve Finley in his 20s?
@romus – hahaha…i made an addendum to my original post…The Brewers Yelich turned into a different beast! I’m referring to the Marlins Yelich.
FWIW, I’ve heard that when trades are discussed, the first pitcher teams ask about is Howard. The first position player teams ask about is (drum roll) Mickey Moniak. So, in spite of what the “expert analysts, scouts, and bloggers” think, it appears that the org scouts are returning good reports to their organizations about Moniak, Among the other players the org scouts are looking at are Vierling, Maton, Ortiz, Brito, Gamboa, Medina… Ironically, Hall’s and Listi’s names haven’t come up. My guess is that AL teams have similar guys in their systems that preclude them from pursuing our similar types.
Time table wise, you can argue moniak is better to keep. With Haselely already here, they have Harper, McCutchen, Bruce, Herrera, Quinn, and Williams. 2 of those are likely gone by next year,’possibly 3. Moniak likely gets Thr full year in AAA next year. By then Bruce will be gone, and if moniak is lighting it up, mccutchen could be expendable, near 2021. Personally I’d rather keep both, unless bohm is the future LF, then you can trade Haselely.
The journeyman who’ll never die, Sean Rodriguez, is back to replace Brad Miller who’s on the IL with a hip flexor. Yippee!
At least he’s not Mini Mart. I am still baffled that a guy with a sub-.200 career batting average managed to play for not one, but TWO 100+ win teams (2011 Phils, 2017 Indians)… AND he was on that Phillies playoff roster and played in the World Series (2016 Indians, he even made the final out)!
I just… how?
Brad Miller has been a nice pick up, a little power and a great play last night along with the JT sweep tag saved the game. Bauer is an unusual guy. Would Nick Williams be someone Tito thinks he can unleash? I can see a trade because Cleveland has some real good SP after Bauer. At this point I would risk dealing with Bauer. He can pitch.
Bauer, talent wise seems worth giving the prospect haul to acquire, the off field stuff is troubling, as he seems like a total nut job. If it’s an act, ok, if it’s not … it’s like dropping a Grenade in the clubhouse. They’d have to really dig deep on this before dealing. Maybe they’ll a good friend of Carlos santana can reach out to him for the real story, or if he had already spilled the beans on him while in town last year. Bauer seems like a guy that would get questioned asked about him, or Santana would tell stories about. That said, trading him while they are the lead WC, and only 3 games out of 1st is a huge red flag. So .. it’ll be interesting, personally I don’t think he is available yet but if he was :
Medina, Hasley or moniak, and VV, Williams, and gullon. If it took more, I’d probably do it. Bauer/Nola/+Cole … and this lineup with a real closer, should be contenders for real… as long as Bauer isn’t a major distraction
Well the good news….first, Bregman is not on the Phillies,
and second, Bauer will not have to worry about facing the Astros and Bregman as often as he does now.
I am firmly opposed to Howard in a trade for Bauer. Unless we are getting Max Scherzer, I am not moving Howard or Bohm.
Agreed. This is the standard. Teams start negotiations knowing what is untouchable. Plenty to pick from outside bohm and Howard
If I recall correctly, Bauer said he’d go year to year on contracts, so there is a very high probability you don’t resign him. That has to lower his trade value.
@Matt – even with Max Scherzer, the cost of the contract should be considered in the prospect equity.
The trades where giving up a high upside, near MLB ready pitcher like Howard is a no brainer are the Chris Sale to BOS or Gerrit Cole to HOU.
Assuming that the Mets will put deGrom on the table, I might still think through it since deGrom is already 31 yo.
Yeah Brad Miller has actually helped us win a handful of games, do not think we can say that about any one else on the bench this year.
Yelich’s minor league numbers were far, far superior to Moniak’s. That is not a good comparison,
Regarding Moniak’s splits this year, they are:
The idea that he is getting some kind of artificial boost from Reading is just lazy thinking. Saw this in a Fangraph’s chat today and it’s just stupid:
1:21 Moniak now outperforming the likes of taylor trammel, has the opinion on his stock risen as well?
1:23 Important to note that we predicted Moniak would have a strong season by wRC+ because it’s league-adjusted but not park-adjusted. Phillies AA Reading affiliate is a bandbox that has propped up org prospects in the past. Doesn’t mean Moniak is another org prospect, but the numbers are juiced a bit for comparative purposes, so I’d say they’re performing about the same.
Just so you all have the context, Taylor Trammel is nine months older than Moniak, also in AA, and he’s put up a .237/.355/.344 line this year, for a wRC+ of 110. Fangraphs has him as the #32 prospect in baseball. Moniak has a wRC+ of 123.
McDaniel and Longenhagen can like whomever they like, and Trammel might be a better prospect than Moniak, but to say that Moniak isn’t outperforming Trammel because of Moniak’s home ballpark is just wrong.
Also ‘bandbox’ parks…generate more HRs, but less doubles and triples….so an ISO metric would be a better tool to measure a hitters power…but I also still like to use wRC+ but disagree with the Famgraphs author that it is not a good tool since it is league adjusted and not park adjusted.
Valasquez has been a stud through 4 innings,8 Ks.
One can only dream…
Trade him now! As in, send Gabe out to the mound to tell him “Good job, plowing through the lineup, Matt wanted me to tell you, that you’ve been traded”. And take the ball .
Knapp catching. Take note. As I said before, he’s an elite signal caller. Enough so that it’s a tough call whether to keep him and his inexplicably terrible bat.
If Knapp is calling the snots, it might be an indication that VV has really changed from the day he embarrassed himself by shaking off Realmuto and giving up those home runs.
More color on this from Kiley McDaniel’s chat:
2:17 wRC+ seems almost useless for minor leaguers in leagues where park environments can vary so much (looking at Nashville in the PCL as an example)…are there any potential updates to make there down the line to at least try and encompass some of those differences?
2:17 MILB park factors are tough since there’s so many new parks, teams that move, temporary parks while one is being built, underpublicized changes to the dimensions, etc.
2:18 We’d be under/over adjusting a lot of guys so we just opted not to do that and you can take guys from like Asheville or Reading that are outliers in their leagues and adjust them down mentally
which isn’t perfect, obviously
I get the easy, quick-and-dirty approach of “Reading’s a bandbox so I’m going to mentally discount any results I see from a prospect at Reading.” But when said prospect has materially better numbers on the road (.791 OPS) vs at home (OPS of .728), the quick-and-dirty approach makes no sense.
Last week someone asked Keith Law about Moniak and his increase metrics over the last season and half….his reply…..’do not scout the stat line’
Then when they asked him about Darick Hall after last season….who is now in the top ten of every power category, and even top five in a few of them, over the entire AA system…E.L, Southern and Texas….almost 200 position players….KLaw commented that he was a “one-trick pony” LOL. 🙂
I get the “don’t scout the stat line” argument, but what McDaniel was saying today was literally that Moniak’s doesn’t actually have better stats than Trammel because of Moniak’s home park. Just not true.
BTW, Trammel does actually have huge home/road splits this year: .763 OPS at home, .631 OPS on the road
Put another way, the road numbers for the two players this year are:
Trammel: .631 OPS
Moniak: .791 OPS
and McDaniel was saying that Moniak didn’t really have better numbers than Trammel because of his home park. SMH
You make a good argument for Moniak ….also Trammel is almost a year older and has a shallow arm like Ben Revere.
Goes to show you how uninformed some of these so-called Scouts are… Ie: Mr Law and this person. it’s almost as if they don’t even look at any stats let alone the important ones. I rest my case
Yeah, but Vinny needs to do this vs very good teams. DET is like a ST training team. But it’s good to see that Vinny did not implode after the 2nd inning jam. So far, all his 3 pitches FB-CB-SL are working good!
Suarez and Morgan being shut down relievers? Man! things are turning upside down.
Or,should I say right side up?
The Vasquez complete game – aka 5-2/3 shutout innings
Trade him now
Ranger is quietly having a good year (knock on wood). Ranger used to have on the best CH in the farm but haven’t really carried over when he got promoted to the majors. The CH looks good recently and Ranger also have a good SL.
I guess it was a relatively good outing for Vinny Nibbles. But after a 15 inning game and a limited bullpen from the previous night, he should be able to go at these AA hitters in shorter order. His pattern of getting 2 quick outs – or 2 quick strikes – and then being unable to put away a feeble Tiger lineup (110 pitches thru 5.2 IP?) is NOT an indicator of his future progress. Please put him in the bullpen and get a starting pitcher here asap. A win is a win. I’m glad they took care of business against a very bad ball club but last night and today were hardly impressive offensive displays. The pitching was good but can they carry that home this weekend? Whole other story. Looking forward to find out….
Duffy looked good last night against the Braves in Atlanta. Just something to thing about.
The teams might be more interested in Simon then Mickey Mo or Hasley.
The Phillies already lost Clutch and And Herrera for the yr. Bruce and Miller are also hurt. They have no choice but to keep Nick Williams and Hasely. The Phillies are in the win right now mode. Healthy bodies matter.
Duffy wouldn’t surprise me. Klentak often operates in the shadows while other names are being put out there. Signing Cutch and trading for Bruce weren’t preceded by much media speculation, if any. Will Leitch of MLB.com named the Phillies as one of 6 teams to whom Cincinnati could trade Puig (along with Roark?) if the Reds are inclined to sell. I’m still tracking with Jim regarding the Greinke talk. I don’t think Minor is out of range yet either. But yes, an out of left field move by Klentak wouldn’t surprise me.
The Reds should be in tank mode, but they’re not. Very strange what management is doing there.
Though i think they will eventually move Roark later next week…no sense keeping him as a rental FA in 2020.
They could get a tier 2 prospect
Tim….”The teams might be more interested in Simon then Mickey Mo or Hasley.”….who is Simon?
Never mind….I know …Simon Muzziotti.
Good job Vinny. I don’t care that it was Detroit, I take every win. We have stunk vs Marlins! Ranger Danger, Alvarez and Morgan pitched well. Nicky Dubs hit a HR, can we trade him? We can piece together a BP, SP much more important, but I would be happy with another BP arm.
Wasn’t impressed with Boyd, too much of a slow tosser for me, but this kid Soto I like a lot.
Sleeper prospect alert. JOHAN ROJAS Remember the name
Wilfredo Flores (.442) and Curtis Mead (.333) are interesting, too. Both are middle infielders and are OPS-ing over .900. Mead has shown a little more pop. And Rixon Wingrove (.306) also has an OPS over .900 with his 4 HR (2nd in the league).
Wingrove walks too. He’s starting to look like Rhys Hoskins part 2: The Revange
Yes Jim you are right. I believe Mead and Wingrove are Aussie prospects. on Mead I believe his dad played pro ball in Australia. Good to see International talent in the farm sys.
So which starting pitcher (assuming non-rental) will Klentak acquire?
1) Trevor Bauer
2) Matthew Boyd
3) Danny Duffy
4) Zack Greinke
5) Mike Leake
6) Mike Minor
7) Robby Ray
8) Tanner Roark
….correction – assuming non-rental or rental for small prospect return.
1. Roark or Leake IMO…..a rental or a Dipoto BOGO.
2. Dayton Moore and KC may look to rid themselves of Duffy’s contract, so he could be another low return guy.
3. Greinke because of his contract
Roark. He’s having a decent season and obviously the Phillies know him quite well.
who comes the cheapest ( in prospect return) may be the answer?
I say Roark comes the cheapest – and I agree he is most likely to be acquired.
1) Trevor Bauer
2) Matthew Boyd
3) Danny Duffy
4) Zack Greinke
5) Mike Leake
6) Mike Minor
7) Robby Ray
8) Tanner Roark
#1 … NO WAY. He’s a top 10 pitcher, but a bad teammate and a lousy human being. Too volatile and too costly.
#2 … Detroit wants a Jose Quintana-like return. Klentak is not going to do that.
#3 … I’ve believed all along eating unwanted money was Klentak’s most likely approach. Duffy is overpaid (37 million thru the end of 2021). Take on that contract and also get Jake Diekman (comes with a 2020 option) for two or three non top prospects.
#4 … Another opportunity to eat money … however … IMO he’s not dropping his NTC to come here.
#5 … Does nothing for me.
#6 … Klentak has been asking about him for nine months now. I’m just not confident he’ll be willing to pony up what it will probably take to outbid the NYY’s or other contenders.
#7 … Same as #6
#8 … Could definitely see this happening on July 31st.
#9 … This is the other top contender with Daniel Norris as the top name for me.
@Hinkie – how about Zach Wheeler? The Muts will be selling high on him especially to the Phillies. I want NYY to acquire Wheeler so they will be out in the Robbie Ray trade and potentially the Gerrit Cole this offseaseason.
I agree that Roark is the best possible scenario and maybe the only SP that will come in unless another injury happens (knock on wood).
We’re in the same page in almost everything you posted except #1. To me, that “bad” reputation is an opportunity to buy low. Winning culture, position to contend and potential to earn big $ will mature Bauer.
Huge 10 days coming up. 9 games vs Atlanta, SFG and Chisox all at home. LAD @ Nats this weekend. If there’s a time to gain ground, this is it.
MadMax returned from the IL today, just gave up a homerun to a young nobody batting .205
Rox up 3-0 in the 4th.
The struggling Rox go back and forth but come from behind in the 9th to beat the Nats. Phillies are 5.5 out of 1st place, 1 game behind WAS.
Hinkie, #4 – Jim has mentioned that from what he’s gotten in the wind, Greinke’s NTC wouldn’t be an obstacle.
FWIW, heard on the radio yesterday that the previous night a DBack scout watched Williamsport batting practice but did not stay for the game. I believe it was the game Stott did not play. I know Im connecting dots here but we are looking at Greinke and Ray and Stott can be traded but not until after the new year I believe as Dansby Swanson was once dealt summer of draft year by Zona to Atlanta for Shelby Miller.. Probably nothing but could be something.
MLB has a new Trea Turner rule. Players just drafted can’t be included as PTBNL in any deal. They can only be traded after the WS. So … Stott won’t be going anywhere. The DBacks could have been in to see guys like Aparicio or O’Hoppe.
O’Hoppe is probably the next most intriguing prospect in WIL next to Stott. I love the kid and hope the Phillies can keep him. O’Hoppe and Ben Brown is the battery I love to see as they go up to the majors.
Lest we forget…Johan Rojas and Corbin Williams are now carving their niche in professional ball and gaining a little provincial fame.
Rojas and Williams will be interesting to see in a foot race and will give Quinn some fits. Rojas being 3 years younger and is showing pop for a CF appears to be the more intriguing prospect. Lee Sang is also 18 and the more experience Muzziotti is 20 yo. So it’s starting to have a good depth in CF down in the minors especially now that the Milville Meteor is no longer the future CF of the Phillies.
One pitcher who may come around in 2020 and may be Klentak can use his persuasive abilities in conjuring up a deal for …is Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland.
The guy has fallen off the cliff and still falling in Albuquerque, but he may be due for a correction next year.
Velasquez and Irvin for Freeland?
@Romus – I like Freeland potential and willing to take the risk. But Vinny and Irvin have minimal value as of now. Maybe a Damon Jones + Enyel delos Santos might start a conversation and even that I think is still light.
Spitballing here…bored on a lazy Thursday afternoon while I’m waiting for something to happen…
How about Cesar Hernandez, Adonis Medina, Vince Velasquez, Arquemedes Gamboa, and Adam Haseley to KC for Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield?
Merrifield as CF going forward? Merrifield will be a good fit in the top of the line up but he is also 30 yo. Maybe regression will start showing affecting him defensively in the OF.
Let’s assume that Klentak will package to acquire Duffy and Merrifield, he may tap the prospects in the lower minors since the Phillies will need their MLB ready prospects as they intend to be competitive now and the years to come —- so rather than Medina or Haseley — it’s possible that Muzziotti, Marchan, Morales, Pipkin, Ortiz will be considered and one of JoJo or Damon Jones might headline the prospect group.
Cesar, Vinny and Gamboa are merely throw ins with their current value so KC may only accept one of them not all of them.
Good break down, Kuko. However it’s sliced, I think there’s enough on the farm to get it done. Merrifield would help us here and now for playoff relevance for 2-3 years. Duffy wouldn’t preclude us from going after the bigger fish like Cole this winter.
Yeah, I even forgot Luis Garcia. With Stott on board, Luis Garcia can be a trade assets as some of us thinks Garcia can be. I love Ben Brown and Logan O’Hoppe (and Micah Yonamine) so expect me to resist when those names will be thrown in any trade scenario.
I do believe that the Phillies will sign JTR long term (otherwise it will be foolish to let him after giving up Sixto and Alfaro) so Grullon, Marchan, Gutierrez, Aparicio and even O’Hoppe can be included in any trade package. Roldolfo Duran’s value I think is a swap with a fungible pen arm.
and also, the 5 names you mentioned will require roster spot. So for a team like KC who are in the rebuild/retool, they need those roster spots to take on flyers, Rule 5, change of scenario type —- so this support also that KC may not want to burn 3 roster spots for Cesar, Vinny and Gamboa.
Why so many prospects?
Duffy’s contract for KC is an albatross and they may be looking just to dump it anyways.
@romus – are you referring to this? “it’s possible that Muzziotti, Marchan, Morales, Pipkin, Ortiz will be considered and one of JoJo or Damon Jones might headline the prospect group.” —- it’s not all of them but a selection of 3-4 from those names.
I just do not see Duffy and Merrifield costing that many prospects.
The one positive thing Klentak can do from what have seen….is bargain well in the asset exchange.
3-4 prospects for Duffy and Merrifield too many? Maybe, I don’t know. I will actually be concerned if KC will only want 2-3 prospects because 2-3 prospects means it will be the high end ones.
I’m actually ok not pursuing the Duffy + Merrifield as 8mark brought up. I think the batting is OK once Cutch comes back and Haseley develops for another year with Bohm joining the line soon and Stott going up the minors.
My stand is deal with rental or secondary SPs this year and go hard on Gerrit Cole this offseason and consider Cole Hamels and Alex Wood. A legit closer acquired in the offseason will also help.
Yeah but we would have to pony up for Merrifield. I consider the Cesar and VV part of the deal for Duffy, the rest for Merrifield.
I don’t get a team in the position KC is in, with a high quality player and team friendly contract like Merrifield’s, holding on to him when they would get great value in return on both counts – the player and his deal. Are they just posturing?
Duffy’s contract is bad, but it’s not crazy. I think the Royals can absorb that deal. That said, I don’t think the Royals will give Duffy away but it’s not like he’s performing at a high level. It shouldn’t have to cost Medina.
BA farm system rankings are out.
Phillies dropped two places to 25. BA said now that rebuild is over, promotions and trades have pruned the system.
Top five, in order: Tampa, San Diego, Atlanta, ChiSox, Dodgers
Apparently Atlanta and the Dodgers can have it both — be contenders and have talent in the system.
They cheat….and never prosper! 🙂
Phillies farm at #25 (of 30), is it really that bad? Bohm and Howard appears to be high upside prospect and Stott and Medina are not that bad. I expect the farm to be in the bottom half more closely to #18-#20 but not all the way to #25.
It’s bad. Bohm is really the only prospect that looks to be elite. I think once Howard gets some eye-popping numbers at Reading, he’ll improve our rankings but note that he’s also soon to be 23. Stott (22 in october) needs to continue to hit.
Medina hasn’t improved, Garcia/DLS/Romero have regressed, Morales and Moniak haven’t done enough.
A key takeaway is that there are no young toolsy prospects that are tearing it up. And our prospect depth has completely vanished.
Farm systems seem to go up and down the scale like roller coasters.
Cubs and Yankees were top of the heap 3/4 years ago….prospects graduate and block the next level group (AAA/AA players) for awhile.
The Phillies need to keep the pipeline alive at the beginning….Rule 4 and J2 signings.
I don’t know if I would call Bohm hitting.250 in double A categorizes him as being elite at this point. Has showed promise but not exactly tearing it up. I think Hall is underrated and should ge5 more respect than he does. Not sure what else he has to do. You can see why these guys have a chip on their shoulder once they make it to the big leagues because they are told they are no good and a pos all the way up. Our minor league system is just fine just not getting the respect Maybe they could be we will be in the future.
Farm system rankings…That is what I was afraid of…
The braves,dodgers,etc are the gold standard,and if they cheated or not,I’m beginning to wonder,wasn’t it worth it?
The phillies EVER being the gold standard??? One can only dream about it,but at this point it is what it is.The comments about our LA prospects on this site,I appreciated. It’s astounding that it has been that bad over the past ten years>
If ownership is satisfied with mediocrity, what can the fans really do? Makes me really appreciate the Eagles organization right now! Let’s go….Super Bowl 2020!!!!
It’s not really surprising the LA pipeline for the Phillies has been so horrible because they underspent for years there. They once had very good scouts and ties and then ownership purged them all and the Phillies went from being in the top 5/10 of the league to a bottom of the league team when it came to Latin America.
They may have tried to build it back up, but as Atlanta, LA, Yankees, etc… it’s the relationships with the boscones that matters. Plenty of under the table money has been exchanged without MLB usually knowing.
Well that will all change now…..the draft comes in next year and it will come down to who has the best scouts to evaluate a 16-year old.
There is not all that much to argue with. Haseley has been promoted. I think Bohm sticks at 3B, but around the league there is doubt. That hurts his ranking. Howard has been injured for much of the season. Medina has regressed. MM has not done enough. We don’t have that top level player that boosts rankings, at least not yet. I expect Howard to really play great next year. Bohm to show he can stay at third, Stott to play really well, and breakouts elsewhere. That will dramatically increase our ranking.
Phil’s have spent in LA past 5 years but those players that were high $ signings have not planned out so far.
I don’t follow the LA stuff much but in the last 5 years how many players have the phils signed that were listed as say top 10 players? How many have they signed for over 1M, 2? It just seems like every time I hear about the best LA players for July, it’s the yanks, red sox, LA, etc.. that are linked to them.
I still think a Duffy/Diekman package is our get next week. Second, I have Tanner Roark.
Sounds like Diekman alone from reports today that LAD, WAS and yes, PHI have him on their radar. Dodgers are considered favorites. Jake’s numbers aren’t that great and we’ve gotten production from Morgan, Alvarez and more recently Ranger. Not sure how aggressive the Phillies are toward him.
matt – I think the Phils will make two moves in the next couple of days. Smyly and Velasquez gave us a good start in their last game, but I still see them getting another starter. I don’t see the Phillies giving up any top 10 prospects, but maybe two or three from the 11 to 20 range. Another move that the Phils should consider is promoting Gosselin and sending Rodriguez down. We need Segura’s bat in the line up for the Braves series. Any news on him? The bullpen seems adequate, and at times brilliant. I like Knapp a lot, but if the Phils have an opportunity to get an offensive minded backup, they should do it.
Wawa, the next guy up from Lehigh is Logan Morrison. His bat alone screams for replacement of what’s up here now, especially Sean Rodriguez.
Right now Morrison is on LHV’s injured list.
Right. Thanks, Frank. Well, once he returns, hopefully they won’t have a reason not to promote him unless they upgraded the bench via trade.
The SP is an issue this year, it it can change in a hurry for next year:
Trade for a viable SP at the deadline:
Have Arrietta get surgery, comes back as a strong 4, possible 3 if you want to dream big
Smyly, DLS, Eickhoff, etc can kick down the door for the 5th
Maybe Smyly can regrain his pre TJ form
Phils drop crazy cash on GCole, possibly bring back Hamels if you’re not confident in the above group, and they roll out
By end of next year Howard or Medina is for real
Next year thr phils take another big step forward, of course a sweep of the Braves this weekend would get me excited again, but the realist knows that would be the high watermark for the season , unless Smyly is real and a trade for sp happens – not expecting both, I know the baseball gods hate philly
Add Arrieta into the mix 🙂
Point is, SP can be fixed pretty fast if a few things go the fo way
If the Phillies absorb Greinke’s contract, they will not be signing Gerrit Cole this offseason.
I think Klentak knows that the current version of the team is a WC team the most, so he will just acquire a Tanner Roark like SP unless the selling price of a cost controlled pitcher like Robbie Ray or Matt Boyd (who I’m not high on) will drop.
Ken Rosenthal did a piece on KC and its unwillingness to buy down contracts. Duffy doesn’t make that much that I would turn him down over money. They may still want too much in prospects even with us paying the whole contract, but it is an avenue I would explore. The Mets seem to be making Thor available. What would we give to get him?
Matt, I doubt NYM would trade Thor to a NL east rival or the NYY. His health history has to give some teams pause.
The Phillies will give more than what they gave up for JTR. Think of Bohm + Howard as given plus Franciso Morales and a catching prospect most likely Mrachan as a starting point.
I love to have Thor but I still prefer the “get a rental short term and sign Gerrit Cole long term” approach.
The NYY might be willing to offer Deivi Garcia + Loaisiga + Frazier so that will be the benchmark. The Muts will only play NYY 4 times while NL East teams 18 times to the Muts will add more premium if traded to NL East.
Kuko, with regard to NYM-NYY, it has more to do with market pride than on field competitive reasons. History says the two teams don’t deal with each other.
Yeah, I know but it is still the main responsibility of a good FO to look for the best interest of the team. I don’t actually care what the Muts will do as long as they will not empower any team in the NL East especially the Braves — like accepting a less inferior trade package from the Braves because of the market pride on not dealing with NYY.
I’m all for making a move for Danny Duffy and or Mike Leake.
It’s a marginal upgrade in the rotation but if you can move Eflin (who seems to be tiring) into the pen it would strengthen middle relief.
Some good feedback on O’Hoppe in today’s Fangraphs chat:
12:23 Is Logan O’Hoppe a real prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23 Sure, athletic, well-made catcher from cold weather area. The type to stay on, the type that blossoms late.
Believe it or not, that’s a very big plug for O’Hoppe.
Know nothing about him, but his stat line… but seeing he had only 2 PB in all 20 GP last year and has 1 PB in 20 GP this year is certainly nice to see.
Alfaro had 9, 12, 5 in his 3 seasons of summer leagues in the Texas organization. Then 28 at A ball.
Realmuto had 4 in 5 games his first minor league season and then 25 in his 2nd season (in the Sally league).
Does anyone know whether Logan Morrison and his major league bat will up once the deadline passes? I know he hurt his hip a few days ago and has been out since but having him come off the bench down the stretch could be huge. It’s not like we have anyone blocking him.
8mark….looks like the Phillies will have to do whit out Whit.
Saw that, Romus. Yeah, I didn’t have much hope for him to begin with. I just can’t understand why KC wouldn’t cash him in for a serious haul without Duffy attached to water down the return. Royals won’t be sniffing post season play until after Merrifield’s contract is done.
The Bauer Outage out it again!
Lol nice…tag me in this looking to start drama and I’m the headcase and nutjob and whatever else is said in this video? That’s hilarious! Traditional media for you…this is why it’s dying. I do love the logo in the background tho! If only he looked like that in real life! 🤔😂 https://twitter.com/backaftathis/status/1154574467055726592 …
Mike Francesa does not want the Yankees to trade for Indians pitcher @BauerOutage, because he’s “a nutcase and a fool” who couldn’t handle New York.
Jon Heyman says Phils are looking at Tanner Roark(SP, Reds)
“Phillies are among teams looking at Tanner Roark. As always they prefer pitchers with team control beyond 2019, but there are few of those available.”
Roark would be kind of like Jeremy Hellickson again. Decent pitcher who usually doesn’t get you down 4 runs by the 3nd inning. Nothing to get excited about, unless they weren’t done after getting him.
Roark may go down in MLB history as the highest WAR player (19.3) drafted in the 25th round.
Still playing…Just for fun…Carlos Tocci, Nashville-PCL .246/.317/.628….Tyler Goeddel, Harrisburg-EL .208/.289/.589…..Jiandido Tromp, Ottowa,Can-Am IND .255/.364/.707….Leandro Castro, Tijuana-Mex .356/.609/1.015…..Kelly Dugan, Chicago-AA IND .265/.422/.780
Wow – Kelly Dugan. I figured he would have a job at his Dad’s production company by now.
Was looking at that ESPN article on the worst deadline trade for every team (ours is trading Schilling for Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee, Omar Daal, etc..) But for some reason I thought Dick Allen was a in-season deal(it happened in October after the season… Should be in the Hall of Fame BTW. Harold friggin Baines? Really? Jim Rice is in there for one MVP year and Dick Allen has an MVP to match plus a much better career.)
Dick Allen never played for the Red Sox. Anybody can become a legend in Beantown. All you have to do is cheat. Jim Rice was a fine player, don’t get me wrong. But there are certain provincial biases attached to who gets voted in and who doesn’t. IMO, JRoll is borderline but considering that Larkin made it, he should too. Dick Allen didn’t stick around very long with any ball club, which hasn’t served him in the campaign to get him in, but he did some remarkable things on the baseball field. Glove was so-so but the other tools were there. I hope he’s inducted next summer.
Dick Allen….16 blacken bold/italic boxes
Baines……has just the one……SLG %-1984
The Schilling trade and later again the Hamels trade are cautionary tales (and they are reminiscent of the disastrous Tom Seaver trade to the Reds). Beware the star for lots of nearly ready “B” prospects trade. They almost never work out for the team taking the B level prospects. You’re almost always better taking two A level prospects and a lottery ticket than lots of mediocre guys. So if the Mets want to give us Thor for a bunch of B level prospects, I’m all ears.
For all you history buffs … get ready for another parade !!!
Absolutely love it, Hinkie!
Let’s get that on billboards all over the area. Let’s get CBP packed and buzzing again!
I can see it now…Bryce on the dais at CBP
“WORLD EFFING CHAMPIONS! “
best thing I read today
that got me thinking about the pitching staffs of those 3 teams, as I feel like we have a 1 man staff right now..
but after Carlton, 1980 had just Ruthven with a 3.55 (86 k’s in 223 innings- Carlton was only guy on staff with over 100k’s), Bob Walk and Randy Lerch with high ERA’s and a late boost from Bystrom.
2008, with old Jamie, Myers and the Joe Blanton pickup.
So who knows, maybe a Tanner Roark pickup, lightning in a bottle with Smyly, and Arrietta holding it together, and one of the younger guys, if the offense gets going and the bullpen gets some help, can make a push.
I am with you catch. Travis Lee was a fake good prospect that Boras got a lot of money for when his original drafting team screwed up. We also got some mediocre pitchers, the best of whom was Padilla, who had a bit of a drinking issue. A cautionary tale of over valuing quantity coming back vs quality. Those were all mediocre Major Leaguers, not prospects. Terrible trade.
matt13……does happen other way also, where the prospect prosper,
1…..July 2011 trade… Hunter Pence for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Domingo Santana and Josh Zeid……PTBNL Santana was the killer
2…or even the the first MadMax trade 10 years ago …three way deal between the Yankees/Tigers/DBacks….MadMax was a barely a year in the league at the time..Curtis Graderson was the star and then there was Ian Kennedy in the middle also.
3. then the Cliff Lee from the Indians for Lou Marson/Jason Knapp/Jason Donald….but the killer Carlos Carassco.
Romus, Domingo Santana has been inconsistent as he has spent equal parts of his career in the minors and MLB. Carlos Carrasco was never going to start for the Phillies as long as Charlie Manuel was the manager and he took a long time to develop into the pitcher he is today.
Carlos Carrasco got good when he was 27. That’s way too long for the Phillies to hold out for.
My point is…..though many seem to, .not every ‘3- prospects -for- one- super- star’ deal, turns out bad for the team giving up the super star.
Big series and team came ready to play. What a sorry effort
Howard – 10 SO in 4.2 1 ER 2 BB
Since it appears we’re not contending for anything from the uninspiring display tonight, can we please move on from Cesar and Franco? And Cole Irvin has no business in the major leagues. If Arrieta insists on pitching instead of getting the surgery over with, put him in the bullpen because even when he’s effective, he can’t sustain it over 4 or 5 innings.
On the bright side, Spencer Howard’s debut tonight gives hope for the future rotation. 10 Ks over 4.2ip isn’t a bad start. Way to go!
I turned the game off after they had bases loaded but after an off day and in a huge game why on earth would Irving be the first guy you bring into the game? Did they think the game was already over so no point in using the Morgan/Alverez/Ranger trio? Just seems like an odd decision.
I would have liked it if they brought up Gilbert instead of Irving to begin with. But guess I’m just pissed they crapped the bed on such a huge game as I got to think that the outcome of this series will really rest heavily on management’s decision as to how much they should go for it by the 31st deadline. Not that I was expecting some massive move, but I really want them to get Greinke despite him being owed a ton if he doesn’t mind coming here and the cost isn’t too high as Howard has to be off the table and Bohm I wouldn’t even consider until the off-season and only if they somehow land Rendon assuming he refuses to re-sign with the Nats. Not saying I want that or not, just that Howard and Bohm are almost untouchable right now unless the deal is just too good to pass up.
Don’t mind bringing in Irvin but can’t understand leaving him in long enough to put the game out of reach
We need too much! Can’t compete with the tomahawks! Sore armed pitcher is your best choice per Gabe, no one at AAA better, sign someone Klentak.
Braves are diving for baseballs and we are throwing it all over the place. All this in our house! Ahhhhh, feel better now, going to bed.
Any thoughts of why JTR is underperforming offensively in a better hitters park?
And Harper hitting fewer homeruns
Just a theory but could this be on the hitting coach/ team hitting philosophy rubbing off?
For JTR,could it be time spent learning new staff?
If Harper, segura, and JTR just performed at last yrs level and bullpen wasn’t decimated,we’d be in good spot for WC
Don’t trade valuable prospects. Pick up Roark . Maybe a cheap reliever.
Sometimes the first year after a big FA signing or trade, the players involved do not perform up to their normal past standards.
Maybe too much adrenaline in the beginning to create that first great impression, and then the pressure to individually produce mounts, and then the slumping.
I stopped watching after 5-0. One team had 5 runs on 5 hits. The other 0 runs on 5 hits. The approach across the board with runners in scoring position, except Harper, is terrible. How can a whole offense under perform and a hitting coach keep his job? One team is clearly better than the other, with a better farm system to boot. Our only advantage is $. FA or big trades are still needed even after big FA signings and big trades last year. I am not a happy camper. But, Spencer Howard looked great in his first AA outing, so there is that.
Hah…..gabe asked why not the hot Ranger Suarez in the 6th vs Irvin ….”After the game, Kapler said Suarez need another day of rest and was not available. Suarez threw 17 pitches on Wednesday.”.
Little things like this register with the President…if the Phillies fall out of it soon, MacPhail could pull the trigger on Gabe after the season.
Since the MacPhail and Klentak extensions weren’t officially announced, are we certain as to whether Gabe’s was or not? Not that he can’t be fired at any time, but we assume Kapler wasn’t extended. Didn’t a particular proprietor of Phuture Phillies imply earlier this week that that may not be the case?
Kapler was hired on a straight three year contract…no fourth year options
So 2020 is his last year…..so an extension should be offered well within the the next year, if not he becomes a lame duck manager in 2020.
And I do not see that happening….they will let him go before that ever happens.
Romus, speaking of firing people, we haven’t heard from our old friend Rocco lately. I hope he’s alive and well….and kinder and gentler.
If you get him to bat .500 (alive and well) that will be good enough, I don’t think you can get him to sustain (kinder and gentler.
I agree with your total post. This jacking guys all around the lineup drives me nuts, mismanagement of the bullpen, lack of fundamental baseball, leaving guys on the bases in scoring position with no outs and not getting them in, and a manager who is always thinking, but never seems to be in the moment til its passed.
I think too, that the instruction on the staff is suspect. FO needs to make changes before they contaminate any new faces.
Pivetta and Vinny have the stuff that can play in the BP. Cole Irvin does not. Gabe has mismanaged the BP all year. Lately, we have had good success from Alvarez and Ranger and Morgan. I am not blaming last night’s game on that decision, there is plenty of blame on the SP and the offense getting 12 hits and scoring 2 runs. What I am tired of is hearing Gabe after a loss. Again, “they had key hits with runners on, and we didn’t”. Great analysis! Do we think that the ability to situational hit at this juncture is going to magically appear? And, the 25 HRS that we are short, compared to where we should be, aren’t going to appear.
Has anyone read the new book The MVP Machine? I’m only a few chapters in but the premise thus far is that Moneyball is over and BetterBall is in. Moneyball being over is explained as all teams are now using analytics to the point that acquiring undervalued assets is basically not an advantage any longer. It’s now about BetterBall which is finding a small thing a player is doing or not doing and making a change to drastically improve performance. These small changes are often made using the massive amounts of data teams now have access to.
Now I go back to Gabe and his staff – what player, any freaking player, have the Phillies acquired the last two years has gotten significantly better since their arrival? Or even slightly better? NOBODY
Jay Bruce has been a positive surprise since his arrival, hasn’t he? Also Suarez has been surprising me recently – but perhaps not you!
Jay Bruce’s OPS+ was actually higher in Seattle this season. And while Ranger is pitching very well, he’s thrown 17 innings this season.
Not saying this will be a Ryne Sandberg level thing, but I could really see facesmacking going on looking back at this trade
Agree…JPC will probably become the player we all expected him to be.
Though slumping at the moment, he is five years younger than Segura so looks like we could be seeing a lot of years of production from him out West.
My hope, Stott will someday in the near future, lessen any fan regrets.
Buddy..Your last paragraph says it all…what is really starting to bother me is the reality of the phillies situation…Who’s in charge of this whole mess?? I am now questioning the owner,after all he IS the owner! Usually with GOLD standard organizations the BUCK STOPS HERE,with either the owner,or someone that he has put in charge!!!
For the most part the failures of this organization if from TOP to BOTTOM,LA signings,draft picks,OR is it all on the development staff,coaches,etc. ?? If the drafts,etc. is a major crap shoot,then apparently the phillies just “get lucky” with the few good prospects.
However,with the GOLD standard organizations,it really isn’t all luck!! Do you know why?
Because if it is all luck,then they CONSISTANTLY GET LUCKY!!
Mark my words…even if they get lucky with one or more trades next week,as long as the current manager and coaches are in place,this team will STRUGGLE to play better than .500 ball for the rest of this year!
Awesome Play JP!! Since you are away from Gabe’s dreck,you are becoming a GOOD player.
I’m not overly concerned about position players going forward into 2020
Lf/cf. mcutch, Bruce, Haseley, Quinn, Herrera combo
All resources need to go into pitching especially starting pitching
I still like VV and Pivetta in pen
I think you need 2 probably 3 starters for next yr
Also new manager and MUCH MUCH MUCH better bench
How about Mel Bkanc who did the old Warner Bros cartoon voices? Oh wait…he’s dead.
At least dead, he’d give up fewer homeruns than eichkoff
“Cross him off the list, then !”
Who is Jose Pirela? And we got him for cash considerations, so how good can he be?
Who can tell us about IF/OF Jose Pirela? Phillies just acquired him from SD for cash, optioned to AAA. Tommy Hunter shifted to 60 day IL.
Maybe Rob Thompson our bench coach has some input about player acquisition? This is the second ex Yankee we have signed this year.
I love this trade. I know he is 29, but he’s had one very good major league season and is insanely dominating AAA this year. This is the type of no-risk possibly high upside trade I’ve been clamoring for the Phillies to make and they’ve made several this year with very good outcomes. I love this. There’s literally nothing but upside with this move.
At the time one of their bigger, Yankee Latin signings 13 years ago….$300K
If the Phillies were to acquire Tanner Roark and Jake Dikeman, and not give up a top ten prospect, would you be satisfied?
Houston, we have a problem, with this hypothetical. Diekman to Oakland
I’ve seen conflicting reports on twitter, one said Arizona isn’t sure if they will be sellers and Jon Morosi says that they are “focused intently on selling conversations. Their big names are definitely available: Greinke, Ray, Bradley, Chafin, Holland, Peralta, Dyson.”
Sure glad Gabe has pencilled SRod into the lineup in LF tonight in this important game.
Sure would like to know what dirt Rodriguez has on Gabe. Finally Kingery at 2b today but only because Cesar can’t hit lefties. Let’s see how heavy Eflin’s body (knees???) is tonight. Seems like any day now both he and Jake could land on the IL. So much for the good news….
My problem here is after Hanseley had a 2-hit night and he goes to the bench and Maikel, who ground into a dp in the most important part of the game, plays. Explain that to me.
Haseley should be playing every day either in Philly or LV, he needs to play. This bouncing him in and out is not helping his development.
Diekman off the board for 2 mediocre prospects. Sure, I would like another arm, but I have been pleased with Alvarez and Morgan, and I am not going crazy over not getting Jake. I think it is a SP that we get, and Matt Klentak has 4 days. I am assuming that Haseley is sitting because a lefty is going? And, we are using that oh so clever Pitcher batting 8th lineup.
Word just out that the DBacks are indeed selling – all of their major pieces.
Cashman may jump on DBack’s Ray.
Yankees are getting ready to lose four in a row to the Sox….and their veteran starters are just about as bad as the Phillies…not one below a 4.25FIP
Explanation from Gabe for acquiring Pirela: We’re going to play some meaningful games in September and will need experienced guys for big ABs. Apparently that would include Logan Morrison.
Here’s hoping they win the next two games or that September optimism might fade fast.
Add me to the list who would rather not see Sean Rodriguez playing instead of Haseley. As for the bench, Gosselin deserves a promotion.
Frank…I hope this is not a precursor of the rerun of the last 51 games from last year when they went 17-34.
If by some chance it should be….Gabe will probably exit right.
I don’t think there is any question Romus. 17-34 has to cause job losses! But, I don’t want to go through that again!! I want meaningful baseball in September but I have a bad feeling.
Dodgers up big on Nats late. A Phillies win tonight gets us a share of 2nd place.
What a pathetic performance! Eflin must be feeling that heavy body again. Klentak did a great job evaluating the Pitching. That, in no way, excuses the offensive malaise, but we don’t have a SP not named Nola who can pitch a quality game. Just embarrassing to be at home in an important series and not be competitive! Not successful, not even competitive. No excuse
Where is Middleton? How much embarrassment can he tolerate?
It is time to put Eglin in the bullpen or on the DL and have him checked out medically. Time for rentals or other starters from Allentown to start for us.
Should be “Eflin”.
No reason to be buyers at the deadline.
Unlike some/many on here (I’m looking at you, Romus), I have never called for Gabe’s firing. However, games like this do get managers canned. This is a complete clown show. I wouldn’t be shocked if Gabe doesn’t last the next 24 hours.
Maybe John Malee and/or Chris Young get fired first to give Gabe a little more time, but something has to give. I feel sorry for anybody who blew a couple/few hundred dollars by attending this game.
Zach Eflin is shot. It was sooo bad/he was so hittable, I think I saw Rick Kranitz racing to the Braves’ bat rack looking for a chance to take some hacks.
It’s also very unfair that the Phillies are being forced to bat against the old baseball instead of the new “juiced” ball the rest of league gets to crush.
… and … it’s not the burgundy uniforms. It’s the guys in the burgundy uniforms.
Is this the worst Phillies pitching staff since the days of Dick Selma and Wayne Twitchell? Injuries to the bullpen, yeah. But come on, how much of an upgrade would the fallen arms be to this mismanaged mess of minor leaguers? Eflin can’t survive a full season. There has to be some medical issue that is being completely ignored. Why? Because who else is left.
Klentak should be sued for general managing malpractice. Kapler and his crew can’t work with young players because these kids aren’t buying his message, which is a bunch of crap anyway.
Burn it down. Burn it all down.
Gabe has to go under proforming team. No feel for your starting pitching or bullpen.
The Braves without Swanson or Markakis are beatable, there 2 young pitchers only lasted 5 ings and thierv bp isnt good.
Time to start making some moves looking toward 2020.
And maybe spark a dead team
Kingery to 2nd
Listi called up for LF
Haseley everyday in cf. he has shown he improves the more he plays at a level
Let arrieta have surgery to get him healthy for 2020
DLS in rotation from LVH. Give him rest of season. Got to know if he has a role for 2020
IL efflin just for mental break and full exam.
They need 3 starters SP for next yr
Time to end the Pivetta, VV, efflin era.
The former 2 can be bullpen pieces.
Pick up ROARK to fill innings. Maybe resign for backend of rotation next yr
Sr……..”IL efflin just for mental break and full exam.”………..agree.
Heavy legs /fatigue in a 25-year old, over an extended period of time, not a good sign. I am sure their medical staff should have done a complete blood work up.
Last night in a nutshell:
Bryce Harper … 0 for 4 (1 BB), 3 K’s
Rhys Hoskins … 0 for 4 (1 BB), 1 R, 3 K’s
Max Fried ……. 2 for 3 (1 BB), 2 R, 1 RBI, 0 K’s
Other than Aaron Nola, this Phillies pitching staff is no match for that Braves lineup.
Agree it’s time to turn the page on this season. Regardless of playoff implications, the objective baseball executive has to see this roster as dysfunctional. Players out of position, players who don’t have any business in the big leagues, players who are physically/medically unable to perform effectively, and players who have apparently checked out. A manager and coaching staff who are clearly in over their heads. A general manager who despite what seemed like an aggressive off season to bolster the offense, neglected the starting rotation.
John Middleton can’t be merely shrugging his shoulders and hanging his head. There needs to be action. Otherwise, the only sounds at CBP will be crickets from the seats and the continued cracks of opposing bats.
This team needs its current players to do better, specially Realmuto.
It also needs Bohm and Howard to be for real. Wouldn’t hurt to have Stott and Moniak either. I’d probably be getting real greedy to ask for Medina too
The offseason was great, and in hindsight was probably to much to expect for such a turn around so quick. I’m not overly convinced a different set of coaches would change that much, but with the variances in Career avgs, I’m starting to think about it.
This team needs to make a run at the 2nd WC, anything, for experience/getting their head right for next yeAr, if not, the staff is likely on the hot seat sometime in the next yr
Relive Gabe of his duties, and bring in Joe Girardi before he ends up with the Mets or whoever. And let the coaches worry about the analytics and defensive shifts.
not disagreeing, but at same time, for huge series against division rival he’s trotting out 2 starting pitchers who should probably be on the DL.
wonder if they gave any thought to Eflin on the 10 day DL to get some rest, and throw Smyly out there last night on 5 days rest?
Eflin may have to be placed on the IL .
Structurally his arm may be fine…..or it could be in that dead’ phase right now as they say….but obviously something is not quite kosher with him
Any word from the Phillies why Zack Efflin started against the Braves instead of Smyly? It was an important game and Slyly is more of a veteran. After this past start Efflin needs to taken out of the rotation and thought medically checked out. At the least he needs to be out in the bullpen if he is healthy and cleared medically.
I get the frustration, trust me I have it too. But why does anyone want to get rid of Franco and Hernandez now? Unless you can get something for them, I’m fine w that but I feel like people have said cut ties completely. Why? Franco is hitting over .300 in his last 25 games or so and Hernandez has been one of the most consistent players on the team .280ish all year long. It’s not like they are taking time away from anyone. We know Kingery can play 2B so it’s not like he needs work there, why not let him get the work in CF (and wherever else) just in case. And with Franco, who would you replace him with? Sean R? Bohm isn’t coming up this year to take his spot.
Again, if you are trading them for assets then fine but to just cut them loose doesn’t make much sense. They aren’t why we are losing now and they aren’t blocking anyone from playing.
Franco and Cesar may not be the problem but neither are they the future. In fact, their mediocrity is more emblematic of what this team has been since 2012.
Going forward today I would bring up Listi to play 3b, Morrison (once he’s off the IL) off the bench, play Kingery exclusively at 2b, play Haseley every day, place both Eflin and Jake on the IL, acquire Roark and another cheap rental as Smyly remains in the rotation.
This roster simply needs to be shaken and stirred. What’s there to lose?
Want DLS up alsoand pitching in rotation.
Got to know at this point if he has a role
Irvin i would like to keep
Assuming they sign cole H in offseason, maybe he can teach his change to Irvin and ranger.
Also totally agree on girardi.
Need experienced guidance on this team.
Franco I would not rush to give away
Would like to see him with girardi and a new hitting coach.
The cubs are looking for a 2 nd baseman.
Hernandez makes sense for them.
Maybe take a shot on Ian Happ
Keith Law’s latest column covered two Phillies prospects:
“Francisco Morales threw three innings in relief for Lakewood and had a 70-grade slider, a wipeout pitch that would make him a high-strikeout reliever in the majors in short order if he threw enough strikes. Morales was also throwing 94-96 mph and overpowered some guys with the fastball, but he had grade-30 command, and his changeup was too firm without any deception at 90-92 mph. I think he’s a reliever in the end, maybe an elite one, with a Dellin Betances build and demeanor, but I would give him another year or so to see if he can start.
Lakewood shortstop Jonathan Guzman might be a grade-70 defender. There’s enough bat there to project him as at least an extra guy in the majors, maybe a contact guy without a lot of power but enough defensive value to make him valuable.”
While the Division is lost, there is valuable experience in driving to a WC – as long as it does not require a full mortgage of the top prospects.
The flaws of this team are well documented.
That said getting late September playoff pressure experience – and the last 2 weeks will be brutal with schedule for Nola, Hoskins, Realmuto and Kingery will pay dividends for their prep in 2020. Harper can share the challenges / experiences, but it is another thing to live it.
MLB.com Top 30…..a few surprises and few stumbling down hill.
2019 Draftees….Stott @3..Erik Miller @10….Jamari Baylor @28
The farm system has taken a step back this season, but there’s always next season. Obviously, the Phillies will need some players to take a big step forward by next summer.
I think there will be a rash of young Latin/Asian and Aussie kids developing and making impacts soon….for two successive signing classes….J2/16-17, and J2/17-18…the Phillies loaded up with over 110 kids signed when they opened their new DR academy doors.
I don’t care how bad the Phillies pitching situation is, there is NO WAY I’d want Trevor Bauer in their clubhouse.
Good he’d be cheaper then. I don’t think he was trying to be disrespectful towards Terry F, he was pissed at his performance. It was def WAY over the top but at least he cares. Would love to see some life outta our guys. Instead we have guys who can’t get into the 3rd and when asked how he felt he pitched he says “outside of 1 or 2 things I think I did ok” give me a break. (And this is coming from a huge Eflin fan)
There’s a difference between caring and having no self control. If you think any of our pitchers aren’t absolutely pissed off anytime they have a bad day, you’re wrong. The difference is they know not to act like a child.
I can put up with passion getting the better of people, but there’s a limit. Throwing a ball 350+ feet is well beyond that limit.
Eric … I respect your right to believe what you want. I’ve been down this road with you in the past so I know you’ve been told Bauer has matured. He may not misbehave for a week or two or even a month or two … but … he always eventually returns to being a jerk. If it’s not showing up his manager, it’s saying he’s more deserving of the Cy Young than his teammate who won the award (Corey Kluber). If it’s not that, he’s harassing co-eds on twitter for days at a time. For the most part, his teammates don’t like him. Gerrit Cole teamed with him to form one of the top rotations in college baseball history, and Cole hates him/hasn’t spoken to him since UCLA. Trevor Bauer is all about Trevor Bauer. He’s a helluva pitcher, but he is a cancer, and is not worth the trouble.
would take him over Arrietta in the clubhouse.
That was totally disrespectful. Tito needs to do something about that, and the veterans on that team need to put Bauer in his place.
Look, the division is lost. But I think it is important that we go for the WC. Not trading top guys but Roark, Norris, BP help, a bat, we could use a lot! I want to see the effort. If Klentak does nothing by the 31st I would fire him August1, and MacPhail too
We have to make an effort for the WC. Roarke, Duffy, Norris, a BP arm, a bench bat. All things we need, and attainable without top prospects being traded. If Klentak doesn’t add, I would fire him August 1, and I would never had hired MacPhail, so I would fire him as well.
Segura did not look good limping off the field today. Was not putting any weight on that leg. Really like Pivetta in the relief role.
With our luck, I’m assuming the worst. But they said shin bruise and if that’s all it is, I’d keep my weight off it too. Shins hurt a surprising amount.
He had a heel problem a earlier in the week…if it is the shin that may be better news than a re-injury of the heel..
The replay showed the ball bounced off his shin, so the shin bruise is probably accurate, anyway I hope so
I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with the Blue Jays. A lot of their fans have been unhappy with the GM, but if trading Marcus Stroman to the Mets for 2 prospects that are NOT in the top 100 is the best they can do, I am genuinely shocked that nobody else can beat the Mets offer.
Agree….Woods-Richardson looks to be the better and youngest of the two pitchers.
And apparently must have the most upside.
Unless Brodie Van gets a good return for Thor or Wheeler….not sure this makes much sense.
Anthony Kay is already 24 and not doing well at AAA. Simeon Woods-Richardson has a big arm but at this point, he’s a lotto ticket. So the Blue Jays flipped Stroman for an older pitcher who might be in the rotation in 2020 and a lotto ticket? That is straight up ridiculous. My buddy the Jays fan is going to have a stroke when he sees this.
I wish I was getting to Toronto earlier than September because I would love to hear the reactions to this. I’m actually shocked at this trade. The Jays’ scouts/FO must REALLY like these guys.
Tell him to take an 81 mg aspirin.
The only thing I can think of is that Stroman turns 29 in the spring and next season is his last season before free agency…..and he was talking about ‘out-performing’ his salary earlier this year and so the Mets may only have him for one year.
My buddy wanted the GM fired yesterday if you get my drift.
Paying Randall Grichuk but not Marcus Stroman is crazy. Now we don’t know what Marcus Stroman wants, but since his agent is NOT Scott Boras, I believe he will sign for a reasonable offer.
Also with BVW making this trade for the Mets…Klentak may now feel the pressure to make his own move for the Phillies rotation.
not disagreeing, but Kay had Tommy John surgery after getting drafted- so this is only his second professional season. Was dominant at AA this year but brutal start to AAA, much like Damon Jones for us.
Toronto got a mediocre return for Stroman! I can’t believe they couldn’t get more, or we couldn’t offer more!
based on prospect rankings, Phils equivalent would be something like De Los Santos and Francisco Morales- Toronto maybe asks for Spencer Howard instead.
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