2018 Post Draft Discussion; June 20th

The 2018 Draft Tracker is current as of today (6/20/2018).  It includes signing dates and bonus amounts as reported by MLB.

The Phillies have signed 28 of their 38 draft picks.  The earliest round pick not signed is #4, Colton Eastman.

Those not signed include –

  • #15, Carpenter – he is commited to Central Arizona
  • #17, Kilgore – junior reliever at Wichita State
  • #21, Jake Smith – he is committed to UNC-Wilmington
  • #28, Jonathan Jones – 2-sport HS player
  • #33, Kinney – declined, attending FSU
  • #37, Rijo – juco, committed to Abilene Christian whose head coach just stepped down
  • #38, Stephen Jones – junior pitcher at Samford
  • #39, Nelson – declined, attending FSU
  • #40, Richardson – juco pitcher, was seen in Philadelphia

The Phillies have $8,585, 000 toward these 28 new players.

Including the 5% overage, they have $716, 425 available to sign #4 Eastman and any other picks below round ten who require more than $125,000 to sign.

If the Phillies are unable to sign Eastman, they lose his $522,900 slot allotment (plus the 5% of his slot that was included in the “Slot Plus 5% total”), and have $193,525 $167,380 to spend on guys below round ten who want more than $125,000 to sign.

I will continue posting a 2018 First Year Player Draft thread as long as we need one for draft discussions.

 

75 thoughts on “2018 Post Draft Discussion; June 20th

  1. I almost rather let Eastman walk before paying him overslot. Rather use money on high school kids.

      1. I know alot of people didnt like the pick because of velocity issues so it may not be that big of a loss.

    1. I agree, in that I wouldn’t give in to his demands (if that is what’s going on) The kid can take his very average skill set and reenter the draft as a senior next year and let’s see how much he gets Remember though, if they don’t sign him, they will also lose the 5% overage tied to his bonus ($26,145)

    2. Sam…..I think Eastman will sign. He really cannot afford to go back to college and risk TJ or shoulder issues.
      Still have two weeks before the deadline.

  2. His stuff is so average let him go back. Hope next year he gets 5000 bonus. for being so stupid not to take a good offer, He isn’t that special to demand a lot

  3. Why people are so obsessed with pure velocity and like to make judgment by looking at the surface? As if these remaining unranked HS draftees are fireballers and Eastman throws eephus pitches.

    People loves ranking and Colton Eastman is ranked in the Top 100 draft prospects so there must be something about him that no one like us pure observers don’t know.

    We all love Sal A. and there’s no doubting that he knows how to find good pitching prospects if given the resources – Seranthony, Sixto, Medina, Rangers, etc were not fireballers when Sal A. found them. And as per Sal A., most scouts are looking for 3 basic qualities in a good pitching prospect:

    1) Good size
    2) Good arm action
    3) Good arm strength (arm strength not velocity).

    I’m not scout and based on the scouting reports I’ve seen, Eastman checked those 3 qualities, so he is a good pitching prospect and the Phils should sign him if they have a chance.

    As per MLB, Eastman’s FB is 89-92 touching 94 and possibly majority of the RH starters in MLB are in that range and they thrive since they have other pitches that they can mix and command.

    Hard throwing starters in the MLB represents a tiny fraction, thus, teams need to pay a premium to acquire them.

    1. The kids you mention were younger, At Eastman age its rare to get better velo. I have seen him and really don’t think he is anything different than a lively type,

      1. @roccom, you’re right in the age factor but i don’t judge him as Lively yet. Eastman is a better prospect than Lively when they’re in college and when they’re drafted so I will hold off on judging him yet because we’ve seen time and time again how a good looking prospect fizzle out when playing pro.

        The 3 qualities identified by Sal A. doesn’t just fall down from the sky. I haven’t attended a baseball academy yet but I’m almost positive that this is what they are preaching in baseball camps, clinics and academies.

        So Eastman can be a Lively, can be worse than Lively or can be an Aaron Nola.

    2. Kuko very valid pt. It’s called an Arm Chair scout it’s easy to say ” what’s his Velo” then judge a pitcher on that . It’s really the Amauter why of scouting.
      1. You need command & control of any pitch first, that will come out early in the process. You can have a great FB and nothing else.
      2.the delivery is just as important as any pitch. A high effort delivery will put you in the Bp most times. If you can’t repeat your delivery thats another red Light .
      The pitchers that have an unusual delivery that may help there stuff.
      3. All Aces have 1 thing in common the ability to throw 3 plus Pitchers where they want.
      4. How many times have you heard he’s a FB hitter.
      5. Example Carpenter on Stlouis a great FB hitter. He hits SD FB for a HR.
      Next game Morgan throws Carpenter all sliders and CU he stikes out.
      I mean SD really young he probably could have gone all sliders on Carpenter.
      6.spin rates of off speed pitches are now coming into play more. That’s a talent in own right.

      1. Once again you show you really don’t know this game. How can you compare carpenter at bat against a righthander versus lefthander.?? He hits 180 against lefthanders with a 290 obp, against right he is 258 with 339 obp. The reason you need velo is so that the hitters can lay on your pitches. if a hitter knows you cant get it buy him you better have pin point control. No mistakes. But velo you can get away with a mistake. Its not the whole picture but a very importan part for righthand pitchers. but its useless to try to show you how wrong you are waste of time.

        1. Ten Best Pitchers-2018…WAR:

          1. deGrom • NYM…4.7
          2. Kluber • CLE…4.6
          3. Nola • PHI…..4.1
          4. Severino • NYY….4.0
          5. Scherzer • WSN….3.8
          6. Verlander • HOU….3.8
          7. Sale • BOS…..3.6
          8. Snell • TBR….3.0
          9. Freeland • COL….3.0
          10. Clevinger • CLE….2.9
          …now I ask…how many sit with FB velo’s below 92 MPH?

            1. No…all of them but maybe Freeland SIT with velo’s approaching 93-95 or higher.
              There is a correlation between the higher the velo the better the pitcher.
              And as you day, especially when it comes to RHPs.

            2. Bauer 91mph avg FB
              Nola 92 avg FB
              kluber 92 avg FB
              Freeland 91avg Fb
              Lester 91avg Fb
              Corbin 90.6 avg FB
              Porcello 90.5 avg FB
              JA Happ 91 avg FB
              Wheeler throws harder then Degrom and Wheeler stinks.
              Kuhl throws at 95 he stinks.

            1. Tim…you make me chuckle…look at your list of top 30 pitchers with the highest fWAR….how many have 4Smr FB velo’s SITTING at below 92?

              You still do not get it…..high velos mean better pitchers.

              And to prove my point even further……how many relievers in the game today…whether they are good or bad…..have 4SmrFB ‘s below 94.

              High velo equals superior pitching.

            2. Some how the same human beings didn’t need there arms safe 30 yrs ago or even 20.
              The new 150 ing is replacing the 200 ing. Tampa Bay has a new game plan . 2 SP rotation 3 relief game rotation . So far it’s working pretty good. In theory it’s easier to find Pitchers to pitch 2 ings every other day . It’s also Cheaper too.

              I love the new high scoring Baseball games . They might break a new HR record this yr . Get me the Bohms , Frazier’s, Drury, Oritz, Harper , Machado .

        2. Morgan has a 95 fb he never used it not once against Carpenter why. Carpenter loves FB can’t hit junk . The both stated that on the TV . Baseballs offense has been on the rise the 3 to 5 yrs because of all the bad pitching . The hr rate has increased too .

            1. So has the BB rate .
              1. The Stikeouts aren’t the 3 pitch kind. There the 5 to 8 and up pitch kind.
              That does a couple of things for the offense .
              1. Extremely high pitch counts at a faster rate. Name me a team that doesn’t want to get the middle reliever’s of the other team.there the worst Pitchers on a team . I mean look at how far most SP get into a game 5 on 6 ings at the most.
              2. By the starter having higher pitch counts because of the higher K % and bb % . There Bull pens are being used much more. That can also cause trouble too . Look how many pitchers The Nats used in the last 2 games.
              3. Look at the young players coming up 19 ,20 ,21 hitting the cover off the ball.
              If the Pitching is Soo good then how come there’s less Pitchers winning 20 games a yr.

            2. “If the Pitching is Soo good then how come there’s less Pitchers winning 20 games a yr.”
              1.5-man rotations vs 4-man rotations….33 starts vs 40 starts
              2. Early exits……pitch count restrictions to save expensive arms
              3. Relieers now high velo specialist.
              4. Mounds lowered from 15″ above baseline to 10″ in 1969…favored hitters
              5. Steroid Era For Appox.7 years(’97-‘2004 approx)…with McGwire, ARod Sosa, Bonds et al
              6.. Baseballs manufactured with tighter lacing (or even juiced)…favors hitters..pitchers cannot grip comfortably

            3. Yea he looked real special tonight . Murphy a big time hitter so is Harper not fair on a 21 yr old.

    1. Jim, any idea when the new 30 man prospect list will be out? I expect Gowdy to be dropped, but have no idea who else.

  4. Who was that top 10 pitcher for us that didnt sign a few years ago…some controversary …then did terrible his senior year?

    1. In 2013, #5 Ben Holmes out of Oregon State and #6 Jason Monda out of Washington State were college juniors who decided to return to school. Controversy arose when Marti Woliver (?) turned them in to the NCAA for using an agent. Holmes was suspended by the NCAA for half his senior season. Monda wasn’t. Holmes season was obviously disrupted. I think Monda went on to medical school.

      1. Ben Holmes name was Ben Wetzler when the Phils drafted him in the 5th round of 2013. I don’t think it’s related or coincidence, but Ben Wetzler changed his name to Ben Holmes after the Philly incident. MIA drafted Ben Holmes in Rd 9 of 2014 and he is having a org filler career with MIA.

        1. There is no doubt Eastman is signing. As someone else (above in this thread) speculated, the hold up thus far probably means the Phillies might need a tiny piece of his slot to ink one or more of the day three HS pitchers. Or … as I posted yesterday, it’s possible the Phils may even be making one more run at Jake Kinney (33rd round), even though he has already tweeted, “Thanks … but … no thanks” to the Phillies.
          IMO … Eastman was picked where he should have been (4th round). He’s Almaraz’s high floor arm, and offsets Pipkin and Cotto (Almaraz’s high ceiling day two arms).

        2. And he signed for 30K with the Marlins. He lost a lot of money with the decision not to sign with the Phillies.

          1. chad, is the “he’ you’re talking about,..jake kinney?

            there was another post mentioning kinney immediately preceding yours… just want to be clear…

            thx

      2. Now there is a question. Say Monda signed as a junior would we be on the hook for medical school or last year of his college??? if he didn’t make it to big leagues

          1. The players I have asked who signed as juniors were enticed with the cost of their remaining year of college. However, I do not know how that would apply to post-graduate or medical school.

  5. To be candid, for any reservations I may have with Johnny Almaraz he doesn’t pick guys in the Top 10 rounds without pre-arranged deals. Given that Eastman threw 110 innings this year he’s not going to pitch alot after he signs I don’t think so there really wasn’t much urgency to get him in here (other than the July signing deadline) which isn’t close.

    1. The only urgency would be the implications to additional signings. Whether he signs over or under slot affects the bonus money available to additional picks. When he signs affects the amount of time left to court additional picks.

  6. Any one know anything about Tyler Mc Kay. Phillies went 225 thousand over slot to sign him, just wondering

    1. there certainly isnt much info out there- had 1 year at K State with just 9 innings pitched before transferring to a Howard College where their site shows him with an ERA of 5- pasting below of a piece about transfers to Arizona State for next season, so guess thats why they paid him the $ to sign. Winkelman had him at 94 with a slider, looking like a reliever.

      Tyler McKay
      RHP | 6-6 | 185 | Blue Springs South HS (Kansas State/Howard JC) | Blue Springs, Mo.

      Notes: Has 49 strikeouts in 34.1 IP to just 13 walks this season at Howard College in Texas with four wins…Appeared in nine games (all relief appearances) during his freshman season at Kansas State with a 3.72 ERA and no record … Yielded four earned runs in 9 2/3 innings with 11 walks and 11 strikeouts … After surrendering three earned runs in his first career appearance, did not allow another earned run until his final outing of the season… Attended Blue Springs South High School in Blue Springs, Missouri … Earned all-state recognition his junior and senior years … First Team All-District in 2015-16 … 2016 Examiner Pitcher of the Year and 2016 All-Star Game starter … In his senior season, tossed a pair of no-hitters on his way to a 6-3 record with a 2.83 ERA and 63 strikeouts … Went 5-0 with 33 strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in his junior season … Member of 2015 state championship basketball team.

      Rankings: Ranked as the No. 69 collegiate prospect in 2018 by D1Baseball.com…Rated the No. 12 RHP in Missouri out of high school in 2016 and the No. 48 overall player in the state…Rated the No. 11 RHP in Missouri by Prep Baseball Report and No. 23 overall player in the state…

  7. All the Pitchers on your list have elite Delivery’s, Command & control of at least 3 pitches.
    kluber avg FB 92 he throws it 41% of the time.
    Corbin avg FB 91

    Freeland avg FB 91 per 2 sites. He throws it 41.1 % of the time.
    Nola avg FB 92 everyone knows his CB is one of the best .

  8. Looking at the draft tracker I was surprised to see round #32 Ben Aklinski listed as a senior at UK being signed for almost full slot ($100,000) while the seniors around him were signing for much less. Then I was wondering, is it possible he is a Junior and not a Senior? This is from 2018 UK website:
    52 Ben Aklinski Height 5-11 Weight 210 Class Junior Hometown
    Phoenix, Ariz. High School Greenway

      1. Thank you @romus, but do you think it unusual that he signed for as much as he did and was listed as a Senior, i.e. presumably no eligibility left?

        1. Yes.
          The Phillies must really see something in him.
          Assume he has a good hit tool ….and he does have a good size
          And SEC pitching is top notch,

    1. He’s going to sign. My guess is Eastman and the Phillies have agreed to wait out the HS/JUCO pitchers that are still unsigned. Maybe the Phillies have told Eastman they can give him a slightly higher bonus if Carpenter, Smith, Jones, and Kinney choose not to sign or if those kids don’t use all of the teams’ remaining pool money.
      Eastman pitched close to 120 innings at Fullerton this season. The Phillies are probably going to limit his innings when he signs anyway.

        1. Hinkie I guess you didn’t read my post, when jim said he was in philly I said he was getting a cheesesteak and was seen

    1. jim Have you seen Williams at clearwater?. looks like he is starting to hit. How does he look to you

      1. Whiz on a cheesesteak is like ketchup on filet mignon. It’s an abomination.

        You’re right about the onions, though.

        1. Whiz is good! Only every once in a while! Hopefully the kid will be around to have many more !

    1. … and here is that tweet

  9. Don’t know if this means anything … but … 28th round pick Jonathan Jones has (within the past 24 hours) pinned this tweet to his twitter account:

    He first tweeted it out after getting selected by the Phillies on June 6th, but (as I mentioned) he pinned it to the top of his account very recently.

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