2018 Draft Discussion: Day Three

2018 Draft

The Phillies completed their portion of the 2018 Amateur Draft with the selection of 30 players Wednesday.

Draft picks and signings will be tracked on the 2018 Phuture Phillies Draft Tracker.

The 2018 Phuture Phillies Draft Selections are recorded here.  I had to delete extraneous comments to get to the voting data, but was able to reinsert them when finished.  The files have been inserted under the Draft tab for future reference.

68 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: Day Three”

    1. I imagine they have agreements with many of the drafted players. We will hear about signings later. They will need players for Williamsport and for GCL so they will announce probably next week before the short season begins.

  2. Oregon State pitcher Luke Heimlich has now gone undrafted for the second straight year.
    From a NBC report:
    “All 30 major-league teams passed over the controversial OSU ace in all 40 rounds of this year’s draft. Teams clearly made a decision to not select the left-hander who admitted to sexually assaulting his niece when he was a teenager, but has since denied the allegations.
    Heimlich was project to be a high-round pick in the 2017 draft, but that was before his arrest as a 16-year-old was revealed by a report from the Oregonian just days before the 2017 draft.
    In the report, that was posted last June, it stated that Heimlich signed a seven-page guilty plea. That plea deal enabled him to avoid jail time. Heimlich was 16-years-old at the time of his plea. In a recent interview with Sports Illustrated, the now 22-year-old, still denied that he molested his niece and said he signed his plea to put an end to such a difficult period his family’s life. This season, with Heimlich returning for his senior year, he has gone 15-1 with a 2.42 ERA for the Beavers. Oregon State is currently playing in the Super Regionals of the NCAA tournament, hosting Minnesota this weekend.
    During his four years with OSU, Heimlich went 35-11 with a 2.32 ERA while allowing batters to hit just .207 against him. Heimlich won the Pac-12 pitcher of the year award in 2017 and in 2018.”

    By accounts he may have been the best college LHP in the draft and maybe up there with Mize.

    1. I would have taken him. We forgive murders and not a 16 yrs old kid who made a bad mistake

      1. Dude this comment is WAY out of bounds to the point where I hope you were kidding (and it would still be pretty sick if you were).

        a) What murderers have we forgiven and drafted?
        b) Molesting a 6 year old child is NOT a mistake and its borderline disturbing for you to describe it as one.

        Please think long and hard before responding to this post or commenting on this subject again.

        1. I was waiting to see if someone agree with this stupid comment. touch a kid and they shoud be hung

        1. Sports Illustrated had a good article (long article though). It is not quite as black and white as it seems and roccom’s comment was not that ridiculous. Apparently a lot of juvenile’s who are innocent plead guilty and it is not as unusual one would think. So for one, he may not have ever have done it (he now claims he didn’t do it and pleaded guilty to avoid a public trial and avoid further stress on his family). If he did do it, then you have to juggle with the question of how long does someone get punished for a horrific crime they committed as a teenager? I am not sure I know the answer, but I don’t think it is a black and white answer either.

          That being said, I do not think I would want the Phillies to draft him. Being a child molester in some ways is as worse as being a murderer or at least is viewed that way by the public.

          https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/05/16/luke-heimlich-oregon-state

    2. So I work with convicted sexual offenders in a reentry setting. Luke Heimlich’s case is unique but also pretty common. Also, I don’t know Luke Heimlich in any way, shape, or form so I’m making specific but also general comments.

      1. As for him saying he took a plea deal even though he didn’t do it. This is actually pretty common. Prison’s actually have a fair amount of innocent people in them. The way this hypothetically could look: Jerry (made up person) gets arrested. Jerry put himself in a bad situation and doesn’t have the financial means or the motivation to fight something. The DA charges him with 3 crimes for the same incident. He then offers a deal: you can plead guilty to this and get probation and your record sealed or you can fight it and if you lose you can get jail time. Jerry takes the deal because there is no prison time involved. Particularly when dealing with sexual crimes, nobody really wants it public bc it’s impossible to restore your image – guilty or innocent. So that part is believable – generally. Again, I’m not remotely connected with Luke Heimlich or the case so I don’t know.

      2. I’m torn on his possibility of pitching in the big leagues. To be quite honest, if he said he did it and was working to better his life, it’s a little easier for me. Because of what he says, we are left in an uncomfortable position. If it’s true and then he’s not remorseful, then it obviously feels different.

      I’m still undecided. I passionately believe in second chances no matter what the crime. I don’t think something you did when you were 15 should define you for the rest of your life. I think it’s malicious of the Oregonian for drudging up his past but it’s out there now. I struggle with the privilege to be able to play baseball. There are consequences for crimes and indiscretion (unless you’re the president). So one part of me says no, he shouldn’t get to play a sport and make millions of dollars. That being said, he’s going to face a lot of uphill battles now with any employment situation he attempts to find. My solution, and this won’t happen, is that he’s drafted and plays but a large portion of his check is taken as a punishment. Restitution towards the victim and their families and maybe a little to go toward the prevention of sexual abuse, the reentry of those coming out of prison, etc. Though that’ll never happen.

      I do find a lot of the dialogue in general on him hypocritical. Just remember that very very few people ever wake up one morning and decide they are going to commit a crime. You’d have to be almost pathological (which I haven’t heard anyone describe Luke as) to wake up and decide to molest your niece(?) or people in general. There is often some sort of sexual addiction (often starting with pornography) and then a string and choices and rationalizations. I’ve had many guys tell me that in retrospect, they see a string of small choices that they convinced themselves were small things. But lust grows and grows. We don’t know what went on in Luke’s life that led up to the crime.

      None of this is meant as rationalization or condoning behavior.

      1. i did read the SI piece, which re-affirmed what a troubling, hard to judge situation this is. on the one hand, the guy has done what he’s supposed to do since, but i don’t know if one can be cured of this, so to speak. but he deserves to life his life and pursue an occupation, but a baseball team isnt required to put its neck out for him. of course he can’t fall back on coaching baseball- no school would hire him. and he might have trouble getting any job now with the notoriety.

        on the Oregonian, the writer discovered the story while doing a routine google search for a baseball story on Heimlich, and felt it was necessary to explore further, though conflicted. tough call for them as well.

        1. Forrest and Raef, the Oregonian should have handled this information with much more care than they did before publishing that information. To be judged for what you did at a young age is very wrong especially after you went through the prescribed legal treatment.

      2. “2. I’m torn on his possibility of pitching in the big leagues. To be quite honest, if he said he did it and was working to better his life, it’s a little easier for me. Because of what he says, we are left in an uncomfortable position. If it’s true and then he’s not remorseful, then it obviously feels different.”

        100% agree with this.

        That said, if he did admit it, he’s going to have a difficult time in the locker room, a la not everyone will accept his apology.

        Regarding the Oregonian, they did nothing wrong. Its a story. Once they found out the information, they had an obligation to report it.

  3. He was 15, his problem is the time in society we are now in and everybody knows his story. If he was a sure fire all star #1 overall pick, dont kid yourself, he would have been picked. But right now his negatives in the community far outweigh whatever potential positives he could have on it,

    1. He actually was rated as a first round selection by MLB personnel in 2017….prior to the June report on his molestation act.
      He was removed from the list last year and not put back on this year.
      Which led me to believe, since MLB is parent and owns the MLB network and its affliate media markets , like MLB.com…..they made a directive to avoid him at all cost.

    2. This right here pretty much sums it up. From a draft perspective, it’s less about whether Heimlich is or is not guilty, but rather all about public perception. And from a public relations perspective, a child molester is as toxic as it gets. Right or wrong, it’s no surprise at all that MLB teams would choose to stay away from Heimlich – just way too much downside.

      1. EagleEye, very interesting discussion about todays morals and social culture with the Luke Heimlich situation. On one hand he has served his debt to society already like Michael Vick did. A child molester is viewed as the worst kind of criminal but we have some people trying to get murders/cop killers freed and they have no qualms about it. I understand why no one drafted him but there seems to a lack of forgiveness in our society and many people want to cut other people down socially. If the young man wants to play ball he will have to go to whatever team would take him. If he does well then you never know what will happen.

        1. Agreed. Wrong is wrong. It’s just that there is this natural western bent toward anti-authority stances as well as the more noble desire to protect our youth. Shame we can’t preserve the sanctity of justice across the board. But that falls on the authority of the home before it gets laid on the lap of the judicial system.

          But I digress…

      2. In 1957 the Phillies had a promising first baseman who had a similar problem. He never played another game. No administrator wants to deal with htis kind of problem. Fair or not the broadcast of the incident has buried any chance of his being paid to play. Question: Did Oregon State know about this before accepting him? How are they dealing with it? Their answer could be instructive for many of us.

  4. We’ll soon be seeing a bunch of promotions, releases and fresh assignments. And J2 right after that. And then the trade deadline. That can’t be an easy job for the personnel department. Fun to follow this game of musical chairs.

  5. I’m going to go on record as saying I like Johnny Almaraz’s 2018 draft.
    I really liked the way he mixed it up by picking:
    21 College players
    6 JUCO guys
    11 HS kids

    Yesterday, I posted my guesstimates for what the day one and day two picks would cost.
    Here’s it is again:

    * 1st round Bohm … slot – 6.9 million, my guess – 6.7 million
    * 4th round Eastman … slot – 522 thousand, my guess – 500 thousand
    * 5th round Vierling … slot – 390 thousand, my guess – 230 thousand
    * 6th round Simmons … slot – 292 thousand, my guess – 700 thousand
    * 7th round Cotto … slot – 228 thousand, my guess – 180 thousand
    * 8th round Lancaster … slot – 180 thousand, my guess – 10 thousand
    * 9th round Pipkin … slot – 153 thousand, my guess – 750 thousand
    * 10th round Stokes … slot – 142 thousand, my guess – 10 thousand

    That would mean …
    The Phillies saved 732 thousand dollars on picks: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 10
    to overpay picks 6 and 9 by 1.005 million
    When you add to this mix roughly 440 thousand dollars in 5% overage money, this guess/estimation works.

    .

    The fact that the team didn’t take a high ceiling/over slot HS player in the 11th round makes me feel like my guesstimate is at least in the right neighborhood. The numbers I posted yesterday (and above) would have left the team with about just 170 thousand dollars to overspend on day three selections. It seems to me, the HS and JUCO kids Almaraz drafted can be best described as mostly not highly ranked, yet very projectable. Hopefully, that means the team can sign most of the 14 HS and JUCO players taken yesterday.
    With the Phillies now fielding two GCL teams, I think Almaraz was looking for more younger players to take.

    Here’s what stood out to me yesterday:
    * The Phillies must have really liked Matt Kroon. They took him in the 30th round last year, but weren’t able to sign him. This year, Almaraz used his 18th round selection on him. Kroon slashed .303/.424/.550 this season as a 3Bman for Oklahoma State.
    * The Phillies scouting department obviously spent a ton of time in Riverside, California. They selected two kids (RHP’s) from ML King HS there. 15th rounder Daniel Carpenter (6’6″, 185 lbs) and 30th rounder Brandon Ramey (6’3″, 170 lbs) are teammates at the high school.
    * Maybe the success of last year’s 21st round pick inspired this year’s 19th round selection. The Hefty Lefty (jaKob Hernandez) was 6’4, 260 lbs when Johnny Alamarz drafted him. Almaraz upped that by 2 inches and 24 pounds when he chose Mark Potter yesterday. That’s right. The RHP from The College Of Central Florida is listed at 6’6″ and … wait for it … a whopping 284 lbs. That’s actually 11 pounds more than he weighed at the start of the season when his college team listed him at “only” 273 lbs http://www.cfpatriots.net/sports/bsb/2017-18/bios/potter_mark_wg1o?view=profile . Anyway … I’m hoping this kid finds the same succes that jaKe the caKe has enjoyed as he works/eats his way through the farm system !!!

    2. good mix which is almost the normal mix on how Johnny plays his draft. but the challenge now is signing these prospects. I assume that the Day 1 and 2 draftees and most (if not all) of the college seniors in Day 3 are locked to sign.

      So how many among the 8 HS and 6 JUCO guys in Day 3 that will sign in? I expect that the bonus $$ is thin so most of the offers will be up to $125K max allowed.

      I like O’Hoope (C) and Carpenter – although I think both (especially O’Hoope) can be a tough sign. Reports said that Sal A. knows O’Hooper very well since he scouted him since he was 14-15 yo. Hopefully, Sal A.’s strong relationship can help the Phils convince O’Hooper to sign.

      1. Hoppe is signing and he hit with Wooden bats at his HS. He won the triple crown in his league nice.

    3. Mark Potter made me wonder about the heaviest pitchers in Baseball. I think Capt’n Crunch Sabathia has that title at 6’6″ and 300 pounds. The other guy I thought to look up is David Wells. Baseball Reference has him listed at 187 pounds, lol.

  6. Pipkin will get a lot. I think you are spot on, Hinkie. Pipkin might even get $1 million (say, $200K less for Bohm).

    ML King HS is not that good at baseball.14-16 record this year. The Phillies scouts must see something, projection-wise. For example, Carpenter threw 27 innings, gave up 31 hits, had 30 Ks and 19 BBs. Had a 4.10 ERA. Against high school kids http://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/king-wolves-(riverside,ca)/baseball/stats.htm

    He did touch 88 in the winter. That was at a showcase (where kids typically throw as hard as they can), so I think he sits mid-80s https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=599198

    He is tall and skinny, so maybe he’ll develop. As I said, the scouts have to believe he’ll become something that he is not close to yet.

  7. Never too early to look ahead to the 2019 draft. Next year class will be loaded with really talented college infielders. Some of the top prospects available should be:
    * Logan Davidson (Clemson SS) was a Phillies 30th round draft choice in 2016
    * Bryson Stott (UNLV SS/3B)
    * Josh Jung (Texas Tech 3B)
    * Drew Mendoza (Florida St 3B)
    * Braden Shewmake (Texas A&M MIF)
    * Greg Jone (UNC Wilmington SS)

    My extremely early prediction for the Phillies first round pick is (I’m gonna’ cheat here) going to come from this group of four plyers:
    * Andrew Vaughn … is a short (5’11”) RH hitting 1Bman … but the kid can absolutely mash the baseball. This season Vaughn slashed .402/.531/ .819 with 23 HR’s and an off the charts ISO of .417 (that’s gotta’ be some kind of record). I’d like to see the kid play a little LF next year at Cal.
    * Jeff Belge … is a name some of you might remember. He was the hard throwing HS LHP from Syracuse, NY the Phillies were heavily scouting for the 2016 draft. He’s legally bling in one eye (if that helps jog your memory). He ended up falling in the draft that year, and he went to St Johns. Belge had a very good soph season (if you can overlook his BB%, or at least it will improve as he matures) this year. He went 61 IP, 38 H, 37 BB, 70 K.
    * Justin Hooper … was another big time HS LHP that fell in the draft (signing demands) and went to UCLA. Hooper is a big kid (6’7″, 225 lbs) who has struggled with his control while experimenting with different wind ups and arm angles. He missed the 2018 season with TJ. So my prediction for him as a 1st round possibility to the Phillies is more about his projection than his past performance (54 IP, 42 H, 39 BB, 61 K career at UCLA). Hooper threw mid 90’s T upper 90’s before TJ. I believe he can do at least that with a clean arm.
    * Wesley Scott … is a HS RHP who already hits 95 with good command. In addition, he’s from Riverside, California … and Almaraz just drafted two prep arms from Riverside yesterday.

      2. Mostly because he’s a 1B/DH guy only. Beer has also not been good with a wood bat during the past two summers.
        He still got picked in the first round by an AL club so he could see his way to MLB as a DH.

        1. Beer was one of the slowest graded runners in the draft at 20..maybe the lowest grade.. Bohm was graded at 35

          1. I’m just sad he wasn’t drafted by the Brewers. It would have been a marriage made in barely and baseball heaven.

            1. Agree….they would work well together…add in a braut it is complete
              Though looks like the Astros will show patience with him..
              No need to rush him with that team they have.

  10. The Heimlich situation is certainly interesting. It was a terrible thing he pleaded guilty to but then recounted to. He was only 16 and I assume had to go through classes for sex offenders over the next five years. By all accounts he seems like a nice quiet kid now. Second chances are the hallmark of our society but this charge is particularly heinous to most rationale people. I’m still developing my opinion but I’d like to think the kid will get a chance to play again. I like the idea of sending a part of his salary to the cause.

  11. As for the draft, how many of our guys are still playing in the college World Series?

    1. Eastman and CSF, 10th rounder Madison Stokes for South Carolina, 11th rounder Jack Perkins for Stetson. think thats it.

    1. Hinkie…ask Jim if you can have a folder on the site and store the data you submit thru the year with all the updates.

  13. Looks like Warfordsburg, PA natinve Connor Litton 3B will forego senior college and sign with the Phils. Probably at least a $125K signing.

      2. boxing is my main sport and i have to log in to blog and comment so this 20-year old handle i have showed up again….

    1. mlbrumors reported the signing that save the Phils close to $1M. I really like them to sign O’Hoope who can command >$300k to sign. 3B Litton is another draftee that i like that is reported to sign for specified amount – possibly >$125k.

    2. Wow ! That’s a helluva deal for the Phillies. Last year, no pick between 1-2 and 1-7 went below slot. Many of them actually went over slot. When Almaraz picked Simmons and Pipkin, I figured they saved a little bit of money on Bohm. I just wasn’t expecting a one million dollar savings. Good for Almaraz and the Phillies.

      1. That’s because Simmions wasn’t a top prospect he was trending down because of his of senior yr with the bat. Now there saying a move to 3rd for him. He’s strong with a strong arm so there’s a chance he could give pitching a go.

      2. Hinkie I read that Pipkin could be a real sleeper. I Know nothing about him but baseball America guys likes him

  15. Brady Schanuel was selected with the 27th pick by the Brewers. He was drafted by the Phils last year in the 20th round. He regressed a lot in Iowa with a total loss of command walking 43 in 53 innings. Whew, lucked out on this one.

    Shane Drohan was the Phils 23rd round choice last year. He pitched 6 innings in his Freshman year. He gave up 3 hits in 4+ IP but had 10 BBs and 1 K while giving up 10 runs. He also hit 2 batters and had 2 WPs. All that in 4 IP…

    Bill Sullivan had a very nice season with Delaware. He was drafted in the 28th round last year. He was 7 – 3 with a 2.97 ERA. He had 95 Ks and 42 BBs in 72+ IP. You might remember he is a wildly enthusiastic Phillies fan who Almaraz said this about him, “He’s got a really loose arm. We like his size, his frame, his projectability. He’s going to throw hard one day. He’s an average Major League fastball right now so we thought it was a very good draft.”
    Let’s see how this plays out because he’ll be draftible again in 2 years.

    1. I think Sullivan was a real punch to Almaraz’s gut. He’s from Delaware, and is a big Phillies (and Eagles) fan. Almaraz had Sullivan in to CBP for a meeting and workout a couple of days before the draft. I think Almaraz had a good feel that Sulivan would sign. In the end, he chose to attend U of Delaware. He tweeted he still hopes to be a Phillie one day. They’ll get another shot at him in the 2020 draft.
      BTW … I think they used the money they had earmarked for Sullivan to sign DJ Stewart. I think Stewart is a kid to keep an eye on. He could do well.

      The other two kids you didn’t mention are Kyle Hurt (34th round) and Edoard Julien (37th round). Both kids played big roles on major college teams this season. Hurt was up and down for USC. the highlight for Hurt … he started a combined no-hitter for the Trojans against Utah. Hurt will be a draft eligible soph next year. Julien was very productive as Auburn’s primary DH. He slashed .284/.403/.579 and mashed 17 HR’s as a frosh.

  16. Colton Eastman may have pitched in his final college game last night. Eastman and Fullerton lost to Washington in a NCAA Super Regional. Eastman’s final line was 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 12 H, 1 BB, 8 K.

    Here’s a blurb from D1 Baseball.com:

    “Cal State Fullerton ace Colton Eastman had been pitching backwards throughout the game, relying on his offspeed offerings more than his fastball. The third time though the lineup Washington was searching for pitches to jump early in the count, so after Braiden Ward hit a leadoff single on the second pitch he saw, Nick Kahle took a strong hack on a first-pitch changeup.

    The pitch was down the middle, but Kahle didn’t line it up. He sent a high pop toward foul territory. Third baseman Brett Borgogno didn’t have to move far to his right to get in position for a catch. Suddenly, he diverted his path, running out of the way. Borgogno lost the ball in a noon hour sun. The ball dropped harmlessly to the ground five feet foul of the third base line at Goodwin Field.

    Kahle fouled off a changeup and then a curveball before Eastman delivered a fastball that Kahle lined to center field for a single. The next batters grounded out on the first pitch and flew out on the second pitch of the at-bat. If the pop up had been caught, that would have been the end of a scoreless inning. Instead the first out moved the runners up, the second scored the go-ahead run. AJ Graffanino followed by dumping the next pitch into center field to put the Huskies ahead 4-2 in the fifth inning.

    In a 10-pitch sequence, Washington turned the tide with five aggressive hitters and a little help from the sun. The Huskies would not relinquish the lead, taking an 8-5 win over Fullerton.”

  17. Sickles, minorleagueball, has a very nice write-up on Pipkin, Drips with upside and be a steal with 9th pick.NIce to get Bohm underslot.

  19. Casey Mize was hit hard by Florida 5 ings 7 h 6 R 6 ER 4 bb 5 k’s.

    Singer same game 6 ings 4 h 2 r 2 ER 2 bb 9 k’s.

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