2018 Draft Discussion: Day Two

The Phillies selected Alec Bohm with their first round pick Monday.  They were idle until the fourth round Tuesday.  They had lost their second and third round picks when they signed free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta this off season.

Here are all 8 picks through the conclusion of Round 10 with MLB notes (in italics) where available.

  1. Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State – “Coming into 2018, scouts were divided as to which of Wichita State’s two potential first-round position players was better. Greyson Jenista has more all-around ability and won the Cape Cod League MVP award last summer, but Bohm posted better numbers there and does a better job of tapping into his considerable power potential. Though Jenista has had a good junior season, Bohm has been great and settled the argument, thrusting himself into consideration as a top-five-overall pick. Bohm manages the strike zone very well and makes consistent hard contact from the right side of the plate. He doesn’t strike out as much as Jenista, has an edge in bat speed and his stroke is more geared to generate power at this point. He understands that he doesn’t have to sell out to hit home runs, so he doesn’t. Bohm doesn’t offer much when he’s outside of the batter’s box, however. Though he has worked diligently to improve at third base, he lacks quickness and range, his hands are just fair and his arm is only average. He’ll probably wind up at first base but has the offensive upside to profile there.
  2. (Carlos Santana)
  3. (Jake Arrieta)
  4. Colton Eastman, RHP, Cal State Fullerton“Over the years, Cal State Fullerton has been a veritable factory producing right-handers who really know how to pitch and compete without premium stuff. In 2015, Tom Eshelman went in the second round to the Astros. Two years later, the Phillies took Connor Seabold in the third round. This year, it’s Colton Eastman’s turn and he’s hoping to join his predecessors in the top three rounds. The 6-foot-3 right-hander has been a solid college performer, with a highlight being throwing Fullerton’s fifth no-hittter in history in late March. As a freshman, he was touching 94 mph with his fastball, but hasn’t gotten back there since, typically sitting in the 89-92 mph range. Early this season, Eastman used a plus changeup with tremendous success and showed a below-average breaking ball. Over the course of the spring, his curve has bounced back and flashes above-average, but his changeup has regressed. He’s a strike-thrower, but not quite with the precision Eshelman or Seabold showed during their days anchoring the Titans rotation. Eastman missed a good chunk of his sophomore season with elbow inflammation and has not pitched over the summer in either of the past two years. He’s shown no ill effects this year, though, and a team that believes he could have two above-average secondary offerings to go along with his feel for pitching could snag him early as a back-end starter type who could move quickly.”
  5. Matt Vierling, CF, Notre Dame – “Vierling hit .310 with a .402 on-base percentage and .505 slugging percentage for Notre Dame this season, while tying for the team lead with 10 home runs. The 6-foot-2 junior — who was drafted by the Cardinals in the 30th round in 2015 before attending school — is an athletic center fielder with above-average speed. He’s also pitched at times, with a 90-to-93 mph fastball and high-80s cutter as a righty on the mound.”
  6. Logan Simmons, SS, Tattnall Square Academy (GA) – “A Rawlings-Perfect Game First Team All-American entering the year, Simmons had something of a rough season. The Georgia Tech commit has a lot of power, but he also swings-and-misses a lot, with a swing that has a lot of moving parts. When he makes contact, though, the ball goes a long way. Simmons has average speed, and he might be more of a third baseman or outfielder than a shortstop down the road.
  7. Gabriel Cotto, LHP, Puerto Rico BB Academy
  8. Seth Lancaster, SS, Coastal Carolina
  9. Dominic Pipkin, RHP, Pinole Valley HS (CA) – “While the high school arms in other parts of the country get more attention, Pipkin made sure Northern California would be visited frequently by scouts when he kept pace with top prep prospect Ethan Hankins (Georgia) velocity-wise at the Area Code Games over the summer. His stock took a hit when he broke out of the gate poorly this spring, but he was righting the ship as his senior season wore on. Tall, athletic and projectable physically, Pipkin screams upside potential. With a quick arm and long frame, he was up to 95-96 mph at Area Codes and maintained his velocity across two innings of work, though he was more in the 92-93 mph range early this spring. He’s demonstrated the makings of good secondary offerings as well, flashing a plus slider and showing feel for a changeup, giving him the chance to have three at least average pitches at his disposal. All of it comes from an easy and clean delivery. The biggest question mark around Pipkin is with his command and control, which can be shaky at times. There’s reason to hope that his athleticism and delivery will lend itself to harnessing his stuff, especially as he matures. His ceiling could be entice a team to draft him early enough to not head down the road to California for college ball.
  10. Madison Stokes, SS, South Carolina“Stokes has had a substantive injury history (foot in 2016, wrist in ‘17 and hamstring in ‘18) and not much success to this point his his collegiate career, but he does have raw power and good speed. He’s also versatile, able to play first base and potentially shortstop.”

Pick ten looks like an under slot signing to free up some money to use elsewhere.

The Phillies bonus pool of $8,858, 500 breaks down as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:       3  – $6,947,500
  •   4th:   107 –    $522,900
  •   5th:   137 –    $390,600
  •   6th:   167 –    $292,700
  •   7th:   197 –    $228,000
  •   8th:   227 –    $180,600
  •   9th:   257 –    $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –    $142,600

Schedule (All Times ET)

Wednesday, June 6
Day 3
Rounds 11-40
Live on MLB.com
Round 11 begins at noon ET

Draft picks and signings will be tracked on the 2018 Phuture Phillies Draft Tracker.

The 2018 Phuture Phillies Draft Selections are recorded here.  I had to delete extraneous comments to get to the voting data, but was able to reinsert them when finished.  The files will be inserted under the Draft tab for future reference.

86 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: Day Two

  1. Stokes and Lancaster are both seniors so they should get the obligatory $50K. That should free up over $223K. Pipkin, being ranked #92 will require more money to sign. $500K might not be out of the question. They also have 2 other HS guys who might require a little more money but Cotto is from PR and might take slot to get his baseball career going. There might be some $ wiggle room for some of the other picks but I don’t know. The next 5 picks or so will tell us if they need the extra room.

    1. i could be dead wrong but my thought is if Pipkin was willing to sign for 500k, he gets drafted in round 3- 750k was slot for first pick of round 3 so something like that more plausible?
      Will be interesting to see how the $ work out with Simmons probably requiring above slot to.

      Maybe the Phils should hire Cal State Fullerton’s pitching coach?

      1. Agree….a $750K offering to Pipkin should do it.
        I think Simmons can be signed with just a little over slot.

      1. Sam….if there is money left over in the pool (top ten round pool) then you can go over $100K…remember rocco’s favorite player Josh Stephen…11th round pick in 2016…. , Josh Stephen, OF, Mater Dei HS, CA, signed for $600K
        Mickey Mo signed for extreme under-slot and the Phillies were able to distribute that pretty decently in latter signings.

        1. Which is fine IF you pick the player you always wanted at 1/1. But if you don’t pick the BPA I think it’s a flawed approach.

    2. Maybe I am wrong, bell but as seniors. I saw some guys last draft signed for as low as 5000 dollars that were college seniors.

      1. Last year atlanta 6 round pick senior from Tennessee. got 5000 dollars.7 round kc signed a pitcher for 2500 dollars.

        1. I really think Bohm will sign for under-slot…maybe $6M….saves Phillies close to a million for wiggling.

            1. Why did Mickey Mo sign for underslot at such a high percentage?
              Why does anyone sign for underslot?
              Why does Nick Foles want to be a back-up QB as a Super Bowl MVP?
              Who knows…..that is what i have been hearing.
              It could be for $6.5M or maybe even less.

              .

            2. Don’t think MM and Bohm are comparable here. Bohm has leverage and no reason to accept a less than slot deal, nor should he.

            3. I think I disagree.

              If the Phillies offer under slot and Bohm turns it down, he has to return to school for another year, be productive again, avoid injury, and be at least a 1:3 pick (with inflation, maybe a 1:4) again next year to meet or better an under slot offer.

              That said, I think It’s unlikely that the Phillies wouldn’t sign their first round pick. I also think that if he does sign under slot, that agreement was in place before the pick. That might have been the deciding factor as they discussed Bohm v. Madrigal v. India v. Singer.

            4. He would sign for under slot because the alternative of being picked a few picks later would reduce his money anyway. The slot value for pick #5 is $5.9 as compared to the Phillies $6.9. He can accept $6m from the Phillies as an under slot amount or risk being picked 2 picks later for a slot value of $5.9.

              Dropping just a couple of picks in the 1st round can be significant financially…

      2. You are correct. A lot of college Sr sign for 5k-10k due to not having any leverage. This also allows teams to go over slot in other rounds. Apparently pick 11 is one that a lot go over slot with bc it’s basically a free 125k (Per Matt Wink, think I read that in one of his articles). Also it says something that Pipkin was taken on day 2, should mean the phillies can sign him or already have something agreed to.
        I really like the Simmons pick, prob my favorite of the draft so far, including Bohm.

    3. 50K? In 2017, #9 Zoellner got $10K and $10 Brogdon got $5K. In 2015, #10 Josh Tobias signed for $10K. I’d be surprised if #10 Stokes got $50K.

      Other low signings of note –
      2015: #14 Bossart, 5K; #35 Andrew Amaro 1K (not so much the who but the amount)
      2016: #14 Hall, 15K (I read this recently)
      2017: #17 Listi, 5K; #19 Russ, 5K;

  2. I should preface this by saying I praised Johnny Almaraz after his 2016 (HS and JUCO filled) draft ….
    I don’t know about you, but I was mildly shocked/pleasantly surprised at what Johnny Almaraz did yesterday. Kendall Logan Simmons and Dominic Pipkin are normally guys who go either rounds 2-3 or day three (rounds 11-40). They are both imperfect, yet tooled up, high ceiling prospects. The Phillies drafted them in the sixth (Simmons) and ninth (Pipkin) rounds. Those slots are 292 thousand and 153 thousand dollars. Obviously, these two kids are going to get paid well above slot. I’m now thinking the team must have/probably has:
    * a slightly below slot deal in place with Alec Bohm
    * an at slot (maybe even tiny below slot) deal set with Colton Eastman
    * significant savings on the Matt Vierling pick
    * way over slot deal in place with Logan Simmons
    * a possible deal with Gabriel Cotto that would save the club some money
    * a way under slot deal with Seth Lancaster
    * another way over slot agreement with Dominic Pipkin
    * a way under slot deal with Madison Stokes

    It’s always fun (and usually futile) to guess numbers. So here goes:
    * 1st round Bohm … slot – 6.9 million, my guess – 6.7 million
    * 4th round Eastman … slot – 522 thousand, my guess – 500 thousand
    * 5th round Vierling … slot – 390 thousand, my guess – 230 thousand
    * 6th round Simmons … slot – 292 thousand, my guess – 700 thousand
    * 7th round Cotto … slot – 228 thousand, my guess – 180 thousand
    * 8th round Lancaster … slot – 180 thousand, my guess – 10 thousand
    * 9th round Pipkin … slot – 153 thousand, my guess – 750 thousand
    * 10th round Stokes … slot – 142 thousand, my guess – 10 thousand

    That would mean …
    The Phillies saved 732 thousand dollars on picks: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 10
    to overpay picks 6 and 9 by 1.005 million
    When you add to this mix roughly 440 thousand dollars in 5% overage money, this guess/estimation works.

    We’ll get another clue after Almaraz makes his 11th round pick. If it’s a Josh Stephen/Jake Holmes (high ceiling HS) type of pick, then I probably under estimated the money Simmons and Pipkin are getting. If it’s an Edgar Cabral (JUCO) type of pick or a college jr then my estimations are more likely more accurate.

    1. Should have said … If 11th round pick is a high ceiling HS kid, then I probably over estimated the money Simmons and Pipkin are getting.

    2. @hinkie – as in the past, we tend to agree on a lot of things. Some draft decisions are already obvious — Vierling (underslot), Lancaster/Stokes ($10k), Simmons/Pipkin (massive overslot) with Bohm and Eastman (close to slot or slight underslot). Cotto is the decision maker for me — my though is that Cotto is an underslot signing (not the Mezquita underslot) even though most HS signees in the back end of the Top 10 tend to sign overslot. If that’s the case, I think the math will work and the Phils will sign all their Day 1 and 2 picks.

      I see this year’s draft as Johnny A.’s back is against the wall and he throws haymakers to get out — which is not his norm. The forfeiture of Rd 2 and 3 put Johnny against the ropes, then he get out of his comfort zone to swing at Simmons and Pipkin. Johnny A. could have just be Johnny A. and draft college players outside Top 200 and call it a day. But I like people who take risks, so i like what Johnny A. did at Day 2 and I hope that he will be rewarded that Bohm, Simmons and Pipkin can develop as projected.

      Day 3 is usually when Johnny A. does his magic. I still hope to see some JUCO/HS signings at Rd 11-13 but this will be the lower level type, who they can sign at $125K. Although I can see them drafting some of the higher end HS prospects in the Rd 30s range as a fallback in case Simmons or Pipkin changed their minds and decide not to sign (knock on wood)….

      1. Oh, there’s no doubt all the kids they’ve already drafted (rounds 1-10) have agreements in place and are as good as signed.

        Some thoughts on day three:
        * Almaraz usually finds a Canadian player to take at this point of the draft.
        * Almaraz also usually hits up the New York area for a HS pitcher (or two)

        Here are some possibilities:

        Ben Abram … 6’8″, 230 lb RH HSP from Georgetown, Ont.

        Billy Price … 6’6″ LH HSP from North Jersey (20 miles from NY). Price is recovering from cancer. Only got back on the mound late this season (out of the BP) and would probably need to rehab until next season IMO.
        http://members.baseballfactory.com/player/billy/price/29efd76df8ee49969cff473d1acbaf85

        1. Also … I don’t think Ashton Bardzell has been drafted yet. He’s the guy I’d hope the Phillies pick at some point today.

    3. All of this shows what a totally screwed up financial drafting system the MLB has created in their fear of not permitting amateur salaries to go berserk and all of this, in turn, is preventing teams from trading for picks (it’s INSANE that teams cannot do this), which, in turn, makes it both more difficult for teams to improve quickly and reduces the interest in the sport.

      MLB should go to a hard-slotting system for draft picks – the other sports have done it so do it for baseball too. It’s so obvious. The MLB should also permit draft picks to be traded. The way to deal with teams just stockpiling too many picks or spending just ungodly amounts of money on the draft is perhaps put a high cap on draft spending – say $25 or 30 million – so one team cannot basically own the draft – it at least needs to be proportional.

      There are so many obvious ways to improve this process, but somehow, every time the MLB tries to reduce expenditures they make it more odd and bizarre and drive the fans away.

      1. catch….the commissioner has bigger fish to fry….like a pitch clock to speed the game up four minutes! 🙂

  3. I have spoken to the parents of players at the Complex as recently as last week. The parents of high school signees agree that with baseball scholarships the way they are, most (if not all) of the parents of friends of their sons who also played ball wish that they had signed out of high school.

    The signing bonus along with the chance to fulfill your dream AND the guarantee of college tuition and expenses when your playing career is over is too good to pass up.

    And, it’s not just the scholarships (11.7 at Division I, fewer as you progress downward). Coach’s jobs are at risk and promises are not always kept. Coaching turnover is also a factor due to the pressure to win. The post-college career of a player isn’t necessarily foremost in a coach’s mind. (Remember that kid we couldn’t sign out of Oregon? The week of the draft his coach let him throw 130 pitches in a CWS game.)

    I’m beginning to believe that a kid drafted out of high school should strongly consider the 125K he might be offered after the tenth round. That plus tuition might be the equivalent of 6th or even 5th slot money. A larger bonus gets you up near 4th slot. Might be worth foregoing the risk of a college career.

    1. I agree wholeheartedly. As much as I loved college and the college experience, if my son was drafted as a HS senior, I’d tell him to take the money and run.

      1. and with the virtual or online courses right now, these kids can continue their education during their down time (i.e. after dinner). online courses can help them avoid distractions (i.e. partying, meeting chicks, dating, etc) too and they can concentrate on just playing baseball.

        1. KK, talking with the players at Williamsport the last few years, I don’t think many would do online courses. Down time is pretty much devoted to sleeping. I remember one player in an interview being asked what the biggest difference was between college and pro baseball. His answer, “In college I had a life.” Maybe in the offseason, but not during.

          1. Sutter McLoughlin was drafted as a junior and his continuing education was part of his agreement. He completed his accounting degree while in Williamsport and Lakewood. When he was forced to voluntarily retire earlier this year, he was ready to enter the work force. Some kids know how to make the best use of their time.

            1. Jim, there’s always the exception to the rule. The opportunity is there but for every McLoughlin there are a hundred more who are just struggling with the amateur to pro adjustment. I stand by my statement.

      2. Sorry if he isn’t a future Phil, but interesting note: The Indians used pick #41 (that they received for the Phillies signing Santana) to draft Lenny Torres who goes to the high school where I work. Carlos’ uniform # is 41. Lenny’s HS # was 14.

        Interesting coincidence but not relevant of course.

        On to the topic at hand, I would have preferred Madrigal or Singer over Bohm (with J Bart gone), but I am still curious to see Bohm. Are we thinking Lakewood or W’port for him (or do they give him the Hasely treatment and have him play a little at GC first)?

        Can’t wait for school to end so I can start going to more games as well as hang out with Jim P and Steve Potter. Brown Boxer, anyone?.

    2. I generally agree with you that kids should take the money and run with the only caveat is that in many instances the kids go to college with the hopes of being drafted higher in a few years.

      Do you take $125,000 now with the college scholarship money today or go to school with the hopes of getting into the top-10 where they can get multiple times that much…

      Guess its a question of how much confidence do you have in your ability to improve your draft stock.

  4. So many kids now are not sure what to do and take time off, shuffle from major to major, and the idea that college tuition and expenses is guaranteed, and you get a nice chunk of $ to put away while pursuing your Baseball dreams seems like a win/win to me.

  5. I’m really excited for Logan Simmons. He’s got Javier Baez tools, and I think he immediately becomes a top 25 prospects in the organization. However (and … I hate to have to do this),
    I’m going to have to call the kid out after less than 24 hours as part of the Phillies organization. Watch these two videos, and tell me what doesn’t jibe.

    I guess it’s possible the Phillies were the first team he ever liked, but then he grew up to like the Red Sox the best 🙂

    1. And, it sounded like he called him “jimmy Rollings”. He should be forced to run extra poles… 😀

    1. Perkins had a huge game on Monday to help Stetson win their regional. He pitched a complete game and tied his career best with 13 strikeouts. He allowed three hits, one walk and one run, unearned, on 109 pitches vs Oklahoma State.

    1. the 2016 draftees are still the tallest – Young at 6’10” and growing, Kelzer 6’8″, Hibbs 6’7″. Hallead 6’5″

  6. Good Afternoon All,

    I just wanted to provide a bit of info on Seth Lancaster, who is now my favorite draftee. I live about ten minutes from Coastal Carolina and was able to see several games this year, including the regional which was just completed.

    Seth Lancaster is a kid that I really rooted for. By all accounts a good kid, a clear team leader, and…rocks a porn stache much like Knappy used to. As far as his skills go, I am no scout, but he can play all over the infield and from my observations he’s a decent fielder with a good arm. He hit a bit over .300 this year, so probably not going to hit for a high average. He did pop 20 homers and from what I saw, the power was real, when he makes contact, he really smokes the ball.

    I have no idea what he becomes, my head says org filler, my heart says utility infielder with some pop off the bench.

    FWIW, after they lost in the regionals, coach Gary Gillmore (Gilly Gilly!) credited Lancaster and Woddy Woodall (10th rd., Cardinals), with turning around a clubhouse that had gotten a little too comfortable after the 2016 Championship.

    I’ll be rooting for all our draftees, of course, but just a little harder for Lancaster.

  7. Second year in a row the Phillies draft Matt Croon. This time in the 18th round. He should be an easier sign this time. Last year, he was a juco kid.

  8. The difference in slot from pick 3 to 4 is $500,000. My guess is they saved $400,000. Still more than he would get if he is not picked and maybe the team at 4 showed no interest in him.

  9. Another guy that could play on the basketball team, Mark Potter from JC, College of Central Florida. 6’6″ 284 lbs, drafted in 19 round , 20 years old, had ERA of 4.36 . On 19 Apr committed to App. State.

    1. APP. State I don’t think they can talk him out of that school. big time program. Great weight loss clinic there.

  10. Phillies looking for specific needs apparently….pitchers, 3rd basemen and shortstops….one true OFer in Vierling and one catcher

    1. there’s no true long SS expect for the man of mystery Jose Mercado guy. Johnny A. are loading the draft with 3B. Simmons, Lancaster and Stokes will play different positions long term.

      The last 3 Rd 1 are OF, so it’s no surprise that there’s a low number of OF in the draft board.

        1. not for $330M but higher than that. I think the Phils will pursue Machado regardless if they fill this draft and the upcoming J2 with 3B prospects.

  11. Speaking of OFers, I don’t think Ashton Bardzell has been picked yet. Though, I haven’t been around for a lot of today.

  12. Through the first 25 rounds (23 picks) … Phillies have drafted 13 college players, 7 HS kids, 3 JUCO players.

  13. Fun fact (from Eric Longenhagen) on Matt Kroon, who the Phillies drafted (as a 3Bman) for the second year in a row today. His dad was a stud pitcher in Japan.

  14. ‘College of the Canyons’…..man, never heard of some of these colleges.
    Then again never heard of Cochise until Darick Hall went there prior to DBU.
    Many Southwest baseball colleges dot the desert landscape.

  15. OSU’s LHP Luke Heimlich…..not sure what to make of MLB’s directive to teams on him.
    Avoid at all cost…or could that be taken as collusion?

    1. the backlash will be harsh for any GMs. although he committed a mistake at the age of 15. I think Heimlich is a FA but I don’t expect Heimlich to sign on a bargain price so that’s might be the reason why no teams want to acquire him.

      1. For a professional sports franchise, his “mistake” is completely toxic from a public relations perspective. Just a no-win situation, IMO.

  16. The Phillies go back to the well. For the second time today, Johnny Almaraz takes a RHP from ML King HS in Riverside Calif.
    15th round … Daniel Carpenter
    30th round … Brandon Ramey

      1. LOL … rocco … I have a hard enough time keeping up with college baseball. I have no info on a HS team from Southern California. I would venture a guess that they must pretty good since they’ve had two pitchers drafted.

  17. a lot of JUCO and HS between Rd 11 and 30. The Phils don’t have a lot of bonus pool flexibility. Maybe a couple will sign the $125K bonus but I assume most of these JUCOs and HSs are just fallback for Pipkin and Simmons signings.

  18. I actually like RHP prep Ty Madden (drafted by KC at 34.1022) but he’s a tough sign even for $2M.

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