Florida Instructional League – Game #10; 10/12/2015 – “Cozens, Baby!”

Dylan Cozens went yard.  Off a left-handed pitcher.  Cleared the back fence at Bright House Field.  Landed in Thome Pond.  Scared the ‘gator.

The Phillies played the Blue Jays today, and combined for 22 hits.  Finally some offense to write about.  Each team banged out 11 hits.  The Phillies had five of the seven extra base hits on the day.  In spite of the 11 hits, most of the Phillies’ pitchers pitched fairly well

Alberto Tirado started and pitched three shutout innings.  He allowed four hits, two walks, hit a batter, and struck out two.  Not the most impressive of lines, but he pitched much better than all the base runners would suggest.  Two singles in the first inning came on a bloop to center and a bleeder through the hole between Hernandez and Brito.

Tirado got the first out in the second inning then gave up a soft line drive to left.  This runner was caught stealing on the seventh pitch of an eight-pitch walk.  Tirado loaded the bases on a five-pitch walk and a first-pitch HBP before getting the third out.  The Jays got a lead off single in the third on another ground ball through the 5/6 hole.  This runner was erased on a 6-4-3 double play.

Tirado ended the first and third innings with strike outs on off speed pitches, looked like sliders.  Tirado throws a fastball, slider and change up.  He has a wide variation on his pitches.  His FB looked like it was solidly at 94-96 mph.  However, he hit 97 and 98 three times each; and dropped to 93 twice, and 92 and 90 once each.

It was difficult to distinguish between his SL and CH.  It looked like he was experimenting with a CB, too.  His range on pitches that were not clearly a FB was 87-78 mph.  He also threw an 88 and two 89s in the first inning that I thought were FB until he started cranking out pitches at 96-98.  I thought the Ks were SL because they were at 85 and 87 and appeared to move down toward his glove side.  He threw 51 pitches, a 9-pitch third after 22 and 20 in the first two innings.

Luke Leftwich pitched the fourth and fifth innings.  He threw 41 pitches (23 and 18).  HIs FB is consistent at 90-91, he touched 92 once.  He gave up one run on two hits and a walk and struck out three.  Leftwich gave up a line drive, lead off single in the fourth.  The runner stole two bases.  He got to third base on a strike out, the second out of the inning.  Leftwich walked the next batter on six pitches.  He gave up an RBI single before retiring the final batter on a fielder’s choice.

Leftwich was much stronger in the fifth inning.  He sandwiched strike outs around a ground out to second.  He got his Ks on an 80 mph and 79 mph off speed pitches (both swinging), and a 90 mph FB (looking).

Ismael Cabrera pitched the sixth and seventh innings.  He threw 37 pitches (17 and 20).  His FB was in the 91-93 range.  He touched 94 once and scraped 90 twice.  His off-speed pitches were 82-84.  He didn’t allow a run, gave up two hits, hit a batter, and struck out three.

Cabrera’s pitch count in the sixth took a hit when he hit a batter on the eighth pitch of an at bat.  But he was dominant in the inning, recording two Ks swinging at 92 mph FB and getting an infield pop up.  He got another strike out swinging at a 93 mph FB to start the seventh.  After an infield pop up, the Jays got runners on the corners on a line drive to left and a flare to right.  The inning ended when the runner on first was caught stealing.

Robert Tasin pitched the final two innings.  He threw 36 pitches (26 and 10).  His FB was 88-91.  The lower velocity after led to the Jays to tee off for a couple at bats.  Tasin was greeted with a double off the left field wall and an RBI double off the right field wall.  An infield single and a ground out pushed across another run.  He finally ended the inning on a 75 mph CB.  Tasin had a strong ninth, recording his second K on another 77 mph K.  He finished having allowed two runs on three hits and struck out two.

The Phillies put runners on base early in the game but couldn’t score.  Jonathan Arauz lifted a soft line drive to left with one out in the first.  With two outs, Cozens lined a sharp single to right.   In the second, Jhailyn Ortiz and Greg Picket worked one out walks.  Daniel Brito grounded a single between first and second to load the bases, but after a strike out the Jays rolled the inning.

The Phillies finally broke out in the third.  Arauz grounded a ball down the line for a single with one out.  After a pitching change, Luis Encarnacion lifted a home run into the Tiki Terrace (LF).  Cozens followed with a towering home run to right that left the stadium.  Jan Hernandez gapped a double to RCF and Ortiz drew his second walk before the Jays got the third out.

In the fifth inning, Encarnacion lined a triple to center fielder.  He scored on a sharp ground ball to right by Cozens.  Edgar Cabral drove him in with a line drive double into the RCF gap.

The Phillies only had one base runner over the last four innings.  Bryan Martelo grounded sharply up the middle and stole second.

For those who are interested, here’s the batting order –

  1. Juan Luis, CF
  2. Jonathan Arauz, SS
  3. Luis Encarnacion/Brendon Hayden, 1B
  4. Dylan Cozens, DH
  5. Edgar Cabral/ Nerluis Martinez, C
  6. Jan Hernandez, 3B
  7. Jhailyn Ortiz, RF/DH
  8. Greg Pickett DH/RF
  9. Daniel Brito, 2B/Jose Antequera, PH
  10. Bryan Martelo, LF

The pitchers put up the following lines –

  •                          IP     H      R     ER    BB     K     Other
  • Tirado        3.0     4      0       0       2       2      HBP
  • Leftwich    2.0     2      1       1       1       3
  • Cabrera      2.0    2      0       0       0       3      HBP
  • Tasin           2.0     3      2       2       0       2
  • Batters Faced: Tirado 14, Leftwich 9, Cabrera 8, Tasin 9
  • Pitches: Tirado 51, Leftwich 41, Cabrera 37, Tasin 36

Extra Innings –

  • Cozens had two more at bats before he was released for the day, both ground balls to the right side.  He finished 3-5 with 2 R, HR, 2 RBI.
  • Encarnacion finished 2-3  with 2 R, 3B, HR, 2 RBI.
  • His triple was a line drive that the center fielder missed on a shoe-string catch.
  • Ortiz had 2 walks and 2 K.
  • Martelo went 1-3 with 2 K and a SB.
  • As well as I thought the pitchers looked, that seems like each pitcher threw a lot of pitches in a small amount of innings.

 

49 thoughts on “Florida Instructional League – Game #10; 10/12/2015 – “Cozens, Baby!”

  1. Is Tirado getting stretched out to become a starter? I remember you reported a couple of guys were getting stretched out but was one of them Tirado?

    1. Turning a great young bullpen arm into a possible starter is what good organizations try to do. If he can do it, he can change his value immensely – perhaps doubling or even tripling it. If it doesn’t work, oh well, he’s developed a breaking pitch or two – no big deal so long as he doesn’t get hurt.

    2. I reported that Alexis Rivero told us that he was going to be stretched out during Instructs as a starter. If that was correct at the time, apparently those plans changed. His English is a little shaky, perhaps he misunderstood.

    1. Only two balls to right while he was in the game. A base hit that was flared into right that dropped in front of Ortiz. He came in well but he was probably playing too deep. After the play he went back to deep right about 10 feet in front of the warning track. The bench coach came out of the dugout to move him in. I think they missed how deep he was playing before that.

      Another ball landed three rows deep in the stands along the foul line. He covered a lot of ground to get to the line. He’s a little quicker than I expected when I first saw him.

      He runs to right field at the start of an inning. He runs to the dugout after the third out. He runs out ground balls. He doesn’t act like a millionaire ball player. He strikes me as a kid playing baseball. So far.

  2. Jim, great job as always. I probably speak for others when I say we appreciate all your work and especially these FIL game reports. Thank you.

    Do you think Tasin was working on another pitch yesterday?

    1. My three favorite players from this line-up are Cozens, Encarnacion (not even listed by MLB as Top 30 Prospects! How good of a system have the Phillies developed?),
      and Tirado who has a very high ceiling.

      1. Hey Gary, I agree. I think Cozens was just starting to really hit the gas right when most had already updated there top 30 during the Summer. I will be surprised if Encarnacion will be on any ones updated top 30’s this Fall / Winter but Cozens moved on to mine when I saw him play in Reading. I think its come together for him and its not just a blip.

    2. I don’t know enough about Tasin to guess. But, in October, I believe all pitchers are working on something. It’s an Instructional league, so I tend to give everyone the benefit of the doubt. In the eight innings I saw, Tasin gave up seven hits, 3 runs, and struck out six. He walked none, allowed one of two inherited runners to score, and threw a wild pitch. Two of the seven hits were doubles.

      This was the third time the Blue Jays saw Tasin in two weeks. He followed three pitchers who had higher velocity. It’s likely that familiarity and slightly less velocity than the previous pitchers led to the Jays big inning. In fact, the three hits came on FB (91,89,89). He reached or exceeded 89 on only three pitches after the third hit. In his 10-pitch ninth inning, he touched 88 twice. So, unless he was trying a different FB, it’s not likely the good contact was because of a new off-speed pitch.

  3. One guy that intrigues me is the kid Arauz. They have him batting 2nd and he seems to get his bat on the ball and gets his hits. Has he even turned 17 yet? I’ve heard modest plaudits for the kid but I’m wondering if he’s actually better than that and someone to keep a close eye on. Also, its easy to get excited about what Encarnacion might become.

          1. Checked MattWinks site and his weight is more then the 147 lbs …listed him at 164 lbs, and that may have been back in the fall 2014.
            Jonathan Aldair Arauz
            From: David Chiriqui, Panama
            *****************Ht: 6′ “Weight: 164lbs
            Signed: Bonus: $600000
            Options Remaining: 3
            Rule 5 Eligible: 2019

      1. 147 is wrong. He weighed in at 175 this spring. He is built better than Brito and Gamboa. Shoot, physically he looks better physically than any LA middle infielder I’ve seen come through Clearwater in the past three years. And all-around, he is ahead of both Brito and Gamboa IMO.

        1. Ya I can see that in the videos posted by Romus, 175 is more realistic. Not sure where MLB.com got their data from, although the picture on the Phils top 30 prospect does look very thin. 17 is a very pivotal year in body growth for many. I am 6′ and I went from 160 to 175 in year 17. With that said though 147 to 175 is a huge jump so maybe it was a dyslexic moment for whoever entered the data for MLB.

  4. Love Cozens upside. IMHO he is a top 10 guy in the organization. I know many will disagree with me but I am prone to look at long term projection. After the obvious top guys (JPC, Thompson, Williams, and maybe Alfaro and Knapp and a few others) I have Cozens no lower than 7th overall.

      1. I’d go …

        1) JPC
        2) Williams
        3) Randolph
        4) Thompson
        5) Kilome
        6) Alfaro
        7) Cozens
        8) Quinn
        9) Knapp
        10) Ortiz

        1. I’d put definitely put Knapp over Cozens. Knapp is a switch hitting catcher. He’ll have value as long as he’s healthy. I think if the Phillies gave another team the choice of players to take in trade, Knapp would be the choice over Cozens every time.

  5. Just can’t get that excited about Cozens hitting an FIL HR. A AA player should hit FIL pitching. I liked what I saw of Cozens at Reading and think he is a serious prospect, but he won’t be as high as #7 for me. Crawford, Williams, Thompson, Ortiz, Knapp, Randolph, (if I ranked guys who haven’t played yet, I’d slot Ortiz here), Eflin, Kilome, Pinto, Cozens.

    1. I’d go Crawford, Thompson, Williams, Randolph, Alfaro, Kilome, Knapp. After those 7 guys, I wouldn’t have any problem with any order of Eflin, Ortiz, Cozens, Quinn or Arauz.

      1. I’d agree with firat 7 though I have Williams at 2. After that it’s Quinn, Eflin, Pinto, Hoskins, Cozens, and then a group of what 10 to 15 players you could rank in any particular order since most are pretty far away.

    2. Agree with your assessment. But based on an amateur’s eye test, Knapp is significantly further along than Cozens. Haven’t see Quinn play but his plus speed and fielding give him advantages in placing him in the Phils’ top 10. I’d put Cozens just outside the top 10.

  6. If we rank our bigger prospects by how much of a signing bonus they got, then I see some of the rankings above. But a few swings in the Instructional Leagues or even a season in the GCL, doesn’t say good or great or super prospect. Randolph has a few ABs — and I wish they pushed him to Williamsport — for the playoffs so I think people can get excited about him. But Ortiz jumping to the top 10, based solely on the faith put in him by the organization, doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy. He needs at least a year in the GCL or somewhere before I christen him a top 10 guy.

    I always take this side, every year. I need to be shown what a guy can do, on the field, to rate him that high. I must admit I haven’t put my top 10 together yet so maybe I will have Ortiz in the top 10 but right now, I don’t think so. I remember Hewitt getting rated highly and Larry Greene too. I see too much time to fail between some of these younger guys and young guys who are already kicking into high gear in A+ or even AA.

    1. agree. too early to put Ortiz in Top 10 considering how deep the farm grew after the trades. here’s my top 10 (or 20):
      1) JPC
      2) Thompson
      3) Williams (over Randolph due to bigger sample size)
      4) Randolph
      5) Kilome
      6) Alfaro
      7) Eflin
      8) Quinn
      9) Pinto
      10) Knapp

      11) Cozens
      12) Kingery
      13) Tocci
      14) Grullon
      15) Pivetta
      16) Hoskins
      17) Tirado (if project as SP not RP)
      18) Canelo
      19) Medina
      20) Arauz

      The prospect that made a big jump in my list is Adonis Medina. I have him in top 20 after the graduation of Altherr, Nola and Eikhoff. Pinto for me is under the radar prospect. I will not be surprised to see Pinto getting a call up late in 2016 season next to Thompson and ahead of Eflin and Lively.

      1. @KK. I don’t think Pinto is under the radar anymore. He was ranked 9th in Mike Drago’s end of season survey by people familiar with the organization. I ranked him 5th on my ballot.

        1. @Jim – that’s good to know. Just don’t see his name float around when discussing Phillies pitching prospect. I like him and Edubray Ramos and can see them late next year with the Phils. Elniery Garcia and Jairo Munoz will be my next Pinto/Ramos.

    2. I understand the logic for those that will not vote for someone that hasn’t played in the system yet. But how do you balance that against Players who played a limited time in the system and did not perform that well. For example: Scott Kingery is a 21 years old college player, but did not perform well at Low A. His ranking in most people’s top 10-15, is solely due to his draft position and pedigree. Same for guys like Cord Sandberg in the past. Their rankings were based on pedigree not actual performance. I don’t see any difference from a Latin signee that has a pedigree based off what they did before they signed.

      1. Anonymous – good point, but the main difference is that you can already see and assess the skill set of prospect that already played compared to a prospect that never seen played at all. being a 16 yo, ortiz hasn’t played enough baseball to see what he can really do that’s why it’s hard to project him considering his only signature is raw power with limited defensive position (either LF or 1B).

        1. But see that’s the thing. These players have been seen before. That’s why they got the bonus or high draft ranking. Outside of JimP, we don’t see these guys in GCL, so what they did in GCL is nearly as foreign to us (fans) as what they did in their showcases and international tournaments.

          The Phillies saw enough of this guy to give him the 2nd highest bonus in the clubs history, and MLB saw enough of him to rank him the 6th best Latin prospect this year. That means as much to me, as Kingery’s 2nd round selection and mediocre performance over 150 ABs in low A.

          1. Ortiz ranking cannot be compared to the prospects with more time playing baseball. Ortiz #6 ranking is not because the scouts or phils seen a lot of his skills but based among his peers – which are 16 yo kids (exclude some cubans older than 16 yo) which are harder to project because of the higher risks — that’s the main reason of the argument why Ortiz shouldn’t be rank high.

            if you will use kingery, the 3-4 years in college/minors is a good measure to see what can do and what he is projected to be, thus, giving him a better feel as far as ranking is concern.

            compared to a 16 yo Ortiz, we don’t know the level of competition that he had or the pitchers that he played against with. not saying that Ortiz is a stiff, but that’s why he is harder to project, thus, hard to place a ranking.

            maybe next year, when Ortiz plays in GCL, we can have a better feel of what type of player he is. but i think his potential/ranking is going to be generated by his power since his defensive position is limited.

            I think Encarnacion will be a good comparison since we have 2 playing years and stats as a basis with similar defensive position and POWER as the calling card. in my personal rankings (which i’m high on encarnacion), he is a borderline top 30. encarnacion is supposed to be the best RH bat in 2013 which ranks between 10 to 15. i don’t see a lot of phillies prospect list ranking encarnacion as high as i rank him. if encarnacion cannot break the top 30, then, it’s fair to say that Ortiz should be higher than encarnacion.

            1. I gave Encarnacion the same benefit when he was signed. He was the highest bonus Latin player ever for the organization. I had him constantly in my top 20 up until the beginning of this year. When the Phillies made him repeat GCL, that ‘dinged’ him for me and his peripherals this year, weren’t good enough to raise him back up the rankings, IMO.

          2. Encarnacion gives me a base line for Ortiz as he moves forward. Next spring I’ll be able to gauge Ortiz’ progress against Encarnacion’s since they are both power hitters. I already believe that Ortiz has a better feel for the strike zone than Encarnacion did at 16, or is at the very least more patient.

            Defensively I can’t say yet. Encarnacion got very few innings at third during his first Instructs and after a brief experiment in the outfield the following spring ended up at first base, where I would describe his defense as adequate. I know this contradicts Chris (Stats) King, but I can in no way endorse his defense as excellent. Ortiz hasn’t seen much action in RF. Can’t wait for spring training.

            FWIW, I too would hesitate to rank Ortiz very high without seeing more.

        2. agree with what Jim said below. Ortiz needs to start putting up numbers, like actual organized baseball numbers, before he can really be considered for a list or anything like that. here’s a round up of my top 30:

          21) Imhof
          22) Sandberg
          23) Pujols
          24) Cordero
          25) Ramos
          26) Sweeney
          27) Richy
          28) Asher
          29) ENCARNACION
          30) McWilliams

          I think the 2015 Draft can produce a lot of sleepers which I’m hoping to be the 2011 Draft of the Red Sox. I have Tobias (#41), Lucas Williams (#42) and Falter (#49). Ortiz is not making my Top 50 yet until I see results from actual orgranized baseball. Jose Pujols (#23) and Luis Encarnacion (#29) will be a good comp for Ortiz.

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