The report card on starting pitchers at the upper levels. Next up: Starting pitchers at Lakewood, Williamsport and the GCL on Thursday or Friday.

Lehigh Valley

Adam Morgan, 23, Phils 3rd round pick in 2011 draft; 16 starts; 2-7 with a 4.04ERA; 71.1IP 84H 26BB 49K; 10HR allowed; 0.73 GO/AO; .296 opp. avg., .284 vs. LH; .300 vs. RH, .266 with RISP; 3.3BB/6.2K per 9; 1.54 WHIP; Since Aug 1: 1-2 with a a3.18 ERA in 6 starts. A disappointing year for Morgan who spent a good portion of it on the DL with shoulder issues. When he came back, his ERA was good but he was pitching in and out of trouble in each start never lasting more than 5 innings.  I am concerned that he was still hurt at the end of the year. Grade: D+; 2014: Lehigh Valley rotation; Prospect Ranking: 8

David Buchanan, 23, Phils 7th round pick in 2010 draft; 28 starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 10-13 with a 4.40ERA; 169.2IP 178H 53BB 108K; 1.10GO/AO; .274 opp. avg; 1.36 WHIP; 2.8BB/5.7K per 9; In 6 starts with Lehigh Valley: 4-2 with a 3.00ERA; 1.23 WHIP; and .250 opp. avg. Buchanan really opened some eyes during his call up to Lehigh Valley at the end of the year pitching very well with a lot of innings already on his arm this year.  Coming back from a significant injury in 2012, Buchanan substantially raised his profile with his final month of the season.  Grade: B; 2014: Lehigh Valley rotation and a 40 man roster spot; Prospect Ranking: 38 Continue reading Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Top Half →

The report card on all outfielders who finished the year at Lakewood, Williamsport or the GCL. A reminder that grades are based on pre-season expectations against that same individual player, NOT against each other. Next up will be starting pitchers (Lehigh Valley, Reading and Clearwater)

Lakewood

Carlos Tocci, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2012; .209/.261/.249 in 421 AB’s; 0HR 26RBI; 6/13 SB; .223 vs. LHP; .203 vs. RHP; .227 with RISP; .169 since Aug 1; 5%BB/17% K rate; 117 games in the OF with 4 errors (.987); 10 OF assists; Tocci played with guys 2-3 years older than him and mostly held his own, especially in the field where he is an excellent outfielder. He has the build of a 17 year old and was wholly without power this year.  His production dwindled further as the year went on and the “grind” wore him down. Grade: C; Tocci did no more or no less than I thought this year; I just can’t make myself give a grade higher than that to someone who hit .180 for half the year(.179 post all star break)…let the criticism begin.  2014: Tocci clearly has alot of potential…let him realize it and experience success through another year in Lakewood.; Prospect Ranking: 11 Continue reading Report Card, Outfielders–Lower Half →

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

The 11-15 range was filled with disappointment.  There are a lot of high risk high rewards guys present and it did not go out well.  Additionally I was flat out wrong in my evaluation in some places.  As always the full list can be found here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/.

15. Dylan Cozens

Cozens is a freak athlete with plenty of raw power.  He has a stiff long swing that will likely have plenty of miss in it, but he has some semblance of an approach.  In the field he can stick in right with his plus arm for now but as a giant already it is hard to project him long term in the outfield.  Even if he has to move to first the bat will play.  He is likely destined for Extended Spring Training and Williamsport but could find a way to Lakewood at some point. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability : 11-15 →

The report card for outfielders in the top half of the organization. Remember, grades are based against pre season expectations of that player, not against each other. Next up is the report card for the outfielders in the lower half of the organization, coming up over the weekend.

Lehigh Valley

Leandro Castro, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2006; .256/.280/.368 in 438AB’s; 8HR 55RBI; 20SB; .328 vs. LHP; .228 vs. RHP; .308 with RISP; .226 Post All Star Break; 3%bb/17%K rates; 115 games in the OF with 8 errors; 8 OF assists; Castro performed better than I thought that he would at the AAA level and was a consistently clutch performer for the IronPigs.  He lowered his strikeout rate to a very manageable level and stole a respectable 20 bases.  The negatives are the continued very low walk rate and the fact that Castro is prone to enter outer space for periods of time causing some real head scratching plays.  All that said, 2013 was a success. Grade: B; 2014: Castro is a guy that could realistically be plucked in the Rule 5 if not protected.  Frankly, I was designate Gillies for assignment and protect Castro to give him another year to progress. He very well could become a capable 4th OF.

Steve Susdorf, 27, Phils 19th round pick in 2008 draft; .313/.390/.403 in 310AB’s; 2HR 36RBI; 11SB; .279 vs. LHP; .321 vs. RHP; .293 with RISP; .269 Post All Star Break; 11%BB/15%k rates; 64 games in the OF with 3 errors (.970); 3 OF assists; Also played 1 game at 1B with 1 error. Susdorf had an excellent year with the bat for Lehigh Valley. The only negative is the laack of power but Susdorf gives you perhaps the best at bat throughout the minor league system.  Problematically, his defense is passable at best. Grade: A; 2014: Again, trying to separate my feelings as Susdorf is a super guy…I would be surprised if Susdorf is not exposed to the Rule 5 draft and could easily help a team, giving very capable major league at bats in a limited role. I am hoping he is back and the Phils give him a chance to earn the 25th spot on the roster in a role similar to Greg Gross, who Susdorf reminds me of…Realisitically, either another organization or Lehigh Valley. Continue reading Report Card–Outfield, Upper Half of System →

This is a retrospective back on the Top 30 prospects list I wrote before the start of the season.  My opinion is that anyone who puts their opinion out there should be accountable for that opinion, in this case rather than just ask whether I was right or wrong, but more why was it right or wrong.  The goal is to explore things in the development of a prospect that can point to growth or regression.  Additionally just because a prospect fails to live up to or exceeds expectations does it mean the base analysis was wrong when it was written.

Continuing on with the next group of 5 players including a pair of HS SSs turned third basemen who are trending in the opposite directions.  As always the original list lives here https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/mattwinks-top-30/2013-top-30/

25. Tyson Gillies

So the good: Gillies is a great defensive center fielder with good range and a plus arm. Gillies makes good contact and currently has good plate discipline. The bad: Gillies cannot stay healthy and there seems to be a consistent hamstring problem. Unless he develops better game power (and a swing to pair with it) his on base and running ability (if it comes back) will be severely reduced. Overall it is a package with some upside, but it is limited by the large injury risk. Continue reading Top 30 Accountability: 21-25 →

Onward to the report card for Catchers throughout the organization.  Remember, grades are based on pre-season expectations against themselves NOT against each other. Prospect rankings are based on which players will potentially have the most impact for the Phillies as major leaguers. Look for the next report on outfielders in the top half of the organization (LV, REA, and CW) coming Wednesday or Thursday.

Lehigh Valley

Cameron Rupp, Soon to be 25, Phils 3rd round pick in 2010; .258/.318/.437 in 325 AB’s between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 14HR 45RBI; 5%bb/21% k rates; Hit .269 for Lehigh Valley; .404 vs. LHP; .215 vs. RHP; 84 games caught with 6 errors (.991)and 6 passed balls; Threw out 28 of 82 base stealers (34%); A very good year of progress for Rupp who hit for power and was very good defensively.  His production was pretty much exactly what we would have hoped pre-season.  Grade: B+ ; 2014: He will see major league time, just a matter of when. Until then, Lehigh Valley. Prospect Ranking: 14

Steven Lerud, 28, Re-Signed as a free agent in 2013; .217/.353/.311 in 180 AB’s; 3HR 21RBI; .212 vs. LHP, .218 vs. RHP; .241 with RISP; Hit .167 Post All Star Game; 16%bb/23% k rates; 60 games caught with 8 errors (.982); 10 passed balls; Threw out 18 of 51 would be base stealers(35%); Very pedestrian numbers for Lerud with the caveat that he does get on base because of a good eye at the plate and did very well gunning down base stealers.  Grade: C; 2014: Another organization.  Continue reading Report Card–Catchers →