General Discussion – Week of 9-23-2013

Weekly Discussion

Last week of the big club’s regular season. It will be so sad to see (free agent x) go sign with (rival club y). I will boo him when he returns in (month z) next season.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s anyone boo-worthy left on this roster. I suppose Carlos Ruiz could get some boos if he leaves for more money, but how would you be able to tell?

Discuss.

259 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 9-23-2013”

  1. It’ll be sad to see Halladay go, but not exactly for him specifically….more along the lines of what his departure means for this particular Phillies Era.
    I know lots of Phans who will be boo-ing Howard in around 6 months

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    1. It was sad watching Roy try to pitch last night as it looked like the possible end to a great career. It must be difficult for him to no longer be able to control any of his pitches.

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  2. great heading! I was at the phillies game the other day with my friend who likes baseball but is not a big fan and when the opposing teams pitcher threw over to first he said ” Boooooooo he’s playing the game.”

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  3. The draft pick watch is on. I believe right now there pick is protected, because it’s a top 10 (tie) worse record. with a good week (the Phils play bad) it could potentially scoot us up to 6th, with a bad week (the Phils got hot) we could drop to 14th. The only problem is that I don’t like rooting for players to fail. Since I don’t see a future with Cloyd of Miner, I’m okay with them struggling.

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    1. Giants have to beat the Dodgers at home this week,
      Blue Jays have to beat the White Sox in Chicago.
      And maybe the Mets can win in Cincy.
      That would all help solidy things.

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  4. Some FAs I would consider for the right low-cost deal; Johnson won’t necessarily come cheap but might be had on a one-yr deal

    1. Josh Johnson
    2. Corey Hart
    3. Michael Morse
    4. Raja Davis

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    1. Josh Johnson is interesting, but are there any more ‘2011/2012 Scott Kazmir’s’ out there?
      Someone at a low cost to take a risk on.

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        2. Kennedy should pull $6-7mil in arbitration so I would think San Diego would be very open to moving him. I’d be game provided he would be acquired to replace Kendrick and we remained in the market for yet another starter not named Halladay

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    2. Johnson is done – the fastball is gone – he’s a shell of his former self, but if you can get him on a shoe lace deal, why not? It’s worth a try.
      Hart is no more than mediocre – I guess he’s an upgrade over Ruf, but at what cost?
      Morse can’t play the outfield – you’d be wasting your money
      Davis is just a loose piece.

      I’d be more interested in something really creative, but it might not be a FA deal

      Matt Kemp – Dodgers aren’t concerned with money but might like to save a little on this guy. When he hits he’s a house afire. I’d love to see him and Brown in the middle of our line-up. That’s exciting! It’s risky but that could help keep down the price of the prospect package.

      Tulo – worth trading a couple of great prospects. Would revitalize the team overnight.

      Dickey – seems old and would cost a little in terms of prospects but the Blue Jays may be ready to turn the page He could be a great – and I mean great – third starter and as a knuckleballer his career isn’t close to being over

      Kazmir – if he’s your 4th starter you’re in pretty good shape, right? Could be very affordable and won’t cost a draft pick

      Jose Bautista – same as Dickey. Might cost a modest prospect package, but he’d revitalize the line-up instantaneously. You’d have to be careful on the give up, can’t give them Maikel Franco or Crawford, but pretty much everyone else could be in play, perhaps even Biddle – I volunteer to drive Phillippe back up to Canda.

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      1. Catch – I should add that I’m strictly thinking out-of-the-box types which wouldn’t cause us a major financial commitment. Obviously any one of those guys wouldn’t be considered a major signing.

        Regarding Johnson, his FB is still registering at 95+, his K/9 was 9.13, BB/9 at 3.32 and an xFIP of 3.59. There’s some good to see in his season if we look beyond the 6.20 ERA. I think he’s a good rebound candidate

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        1. I live in Colorado and there has been a lot of talk regarding the possible trades of Tulo and Cargo. Now whether it comes to fruition is another thing. Both are terrific players and great teammates. Either one would look great in a Phillies uniform. It will most likely take a kings ransom to get them.

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          1. Thanks for the info. The Mets beat staff have been writing about it as well with enough specifics to suggest it is more than just specualtion.

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          2. Yeah, I would literally trade almost anyone we have to get either of these guys. Cargo is easily one of the top 5 players in the league. If he played in a big market, he would be huge. And Tulo is a beast too. Dom and Biddle for Cargo?

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            3. Yeah, but did you check out his splits this year? He is killing it, and I mean absolutely killing it, away from Coors Field. This year, he’s 176 away from Coors – far better than his home performance. That would look awfully nice in CBP, thank you very much.

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  5. Trading away prospects has cost them — trading away Lee forces Amaro to tradefor Roy O
    and then trade for pence for 4 hi level drafts…

    I wauldnt mk the same mistake again

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    1. It was actually the other way around. Trading for Halladay forced (in ownership’s mind) Amaro to trade Lee away to rebuild the farm system after trading away seven prospects for Lee and Halladay.

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      1. No. That was just the lame excuse given by the Phillies at the time of the trade. The trade had next to nothing to do with replenishing the farm and everything to get player salaries back on budget, by lising Lee’s salary. That is also the reason we took back $6 Milllion from Toronto in the Halladay trade. Combining the two trades, the Phillies salary budget for the year was unchanged. Same approach taken in Pence trade — enough $ sent by Houston to make the trade salary neutral for the Phillies in the year of the trade. RAJ is given a salary budget and he is not allowed to exceed it.

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  6. Doc hasn’t been the same since his trip to the AMAZON. I have Lyme,maybe he has picked up an illness like lyme from the AMAZON that our medical people just don’t know about.

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    1. I understand your larger point about an undiagnosed medical condition, but I feel obliged to point out that there is no Lyme in the Amazon.

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        1. I hope doc is thinking this and being pro active on finding out. Why is he sweating and losing so much weight?

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    1. Hope your right. I am thinking they are tanking, we know the sixers are tanking, and the eagles wont win more than 5 games. so we will have some good draft postions coming up, the only bad thing is, I dont trust ruben, howie for eagles is a moron, so my only hope is the sixers with hinkle, I really cant see how men invest so much money in a team. and then put morons like amaro, howie rosemen in charge, just makes no sense, ed snider has been doing it for 35 years ,and you see no cups, this is business and the loyalty to amaro. and snider with his former players is sickening to me. go get winning gm.

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  8. Have been reading on various BB related sites about all the hand-wringing obsession with getting a “protected” draft pick, in lieu of an “unprotected” draft pick, for what?

    I can see that theoretically one might get a better player selecting with an earlier draft pick than a later one. I might have liked if they could have landed with a top 4 pick, because there are at least 4 potential draft picks I like reading about the characteristics of ( and I guess a lot of commenters evaluate draft prospects in that way.) But, it looks like that went out with Chuck Manuel. And , it has been shown that a wrong pick can be made from any draft position.

    However, the “protected” aspect of the thing only matters if the following conditions are met;

    1. The player receives a qualifying offer of “around” 14 million per season.

    2. The player has been with their current team for the entire season, and/or otherwise meets conditions of compensability.

    and the team specific conditions which I believe apply:

    Player would make appreciable difference in the fortunes of PHILA.
    Player would improve proper balance and roster construction in PHILA and provide long-term improvement in the wins and losses of PHILA for progress in moving to championship level/
    Player would realistically entertain the notion of playing in PHILA.

    Who are these players?

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    1. Well, I do think many on here (if not most) including myself agree with you that the “bottom-10” doesn’t mean much this year do the unattractive players likely to get QOs. I would have some interest in Nelson Cruz but not sure he will get one (or what contract it would take to sign him)

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    2. I think part of it is fans just want protection from RAJ doing something stupid such as signing this winter’s equivalent of Raul Ibanez and throwing the highest draft pick the Phillies have had in a decade.

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  9. From BA: They released the top 20 prospects in the GCL. Haven’t seen the non-pay version of the list, yet, but going by the tags looks like J.P . Crawford is on it.

    Also from BA: Surprised to see among the first published releases I have seen this offseason Is Alejandro Villalobos, 2B. Also released: Jordan Elliott, RHP, Chris Motta, RHP, Gustavo Gonzalez, INF, Jose Mojica, SS.

    BA also lists the minor leaguers re-instated from the DL at season’s end, including some I wasn’t sure were still in organization like; Willians Astudillo , Shaun Williams, Andres Blanco , and many more.

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  10. Top two targets if they dont resign with respective clubs…Garza and Pence…Garza would not cost us a pick i believe because he was traded and hopefully our pick would be protected for Pence….Andy Martino of NYDaily News…suggests Amaro will continue his pursuit of Stanton

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    1. I do think there is enough chatter to suggest Amaro is going to go all in in a trade with somebody this offseason. I think he’ll try for Stanton but he doesn’t have the prospects to out bid 29 other interested suitors. Tulo is interesting since his contract will preclude interest form 3/4s of the league.

      Pence on the right contract wouldn’t be a bad thing IMO, but that to me should be more of a complimentary to move to something bigger. I like Garza a lot as a #3 and think the Phillies will be interested.

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      1. A lot of ambivalence about this. Garza won’t cost a pick, but, because he is, at the same time, the best FA pitcher out there, and BECAUSE he won’t cost a pick, he’ll be overpaid. I like him as a 3, but he may be paid like a 2.

        Obviously any trade is going to cost prospects. Tulo is indeed interesting, but he won’t come cheap, and could easily be on the downside of his career by the time the Phillies are ready to contend again.

        And yeah, I get that the idea is to return to contention in 2014. But let’s say you add Tulo and Garza to the current team, and maybe a couple lowish priced relievers. Is that a contender? IMO probably not quite – that is, they would contend if almost everything broke right for them, but how often does that happen?

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        1. I really don’t care if Garza is overpaid. The Phillies have money from not resigning Doc and Garza would look terrific in Philly in the 3 spot. There are a few other arms that will also be in play this off season (Santana, Nolasco, Jiminez) but I think Garza would be the best fit in Philly. The Phils need an OF so while I love Tulo, I like Cargo even more. They need to add a legit #3 batting order guy for me to see them as a contender. Utley is not that guy any longer although he has had a good season and appears to have more left in the tank. Utley is now a guy who should bat 2nd or 6th.
          As for Kemp, I don’t see the Dodgers moving him. As for Stanton, I don’t think the Phils have enough to get him but they’re not competing with 29 other teams, only those that can afford Stanton’s salary because no one will trade for him and then not extend him. That excludes a large number of teams but there’s still plenty of teams that would take a shot.

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          1. Dodgers will want to trade one of Kemp or Ethier. Looks like Puig stays and Crawford may be unmovable. Then there is Pederson on the horizon.
            So Kemp could be had for the right price.

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        2. I agree that Garza will be overpaid for the reasons you mention, but so long as it is more in terms of money than years I have no problem with a bit of an overpay. The fact that the Phillies offered Gonzalez so much, and then got him much cheaper, suggests that there is money available for a SP.

          As for Tulo, they should be able to overpay a bit in the final years of that deal with the new TV contract and Howard and Lee off the books by then. I am more worried about what such a trade does to the farm…

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        1. Catch…always the optimist…nay a negadelphia thought.
          Anyway, get your positive vibes going and beam them to Ruben so he does the unthinkable…and go out and get Masa Tanaka from Nippon land.
          A rotation of Hamels, Lee, Tanaka, Gonzalez and John Doe would have a ring to it.

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          1. It’s funny, up until the last year or so I was known as one of the “moderate optimists” on the site. I’m just pissed off lately because, well, things have gone so well if you haven’t noticed. And I’ve seen the attrition first hand at the ball park – have a partial season plan – and it’s rather depressing and was probably unnecessary. I think I’m still reasonably optimistic, all things considered.

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      2. I wouldn’t say always, I know Doc’s shoulder ruined his last two years here, but I personally feel that the first 2 years with him were worth it and that the trade did not end badly per se.

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  12. Stanton deal would cost alot …Franco or asche, hernandez, ruf and biddle…we have enough but. I rather sign Pence to bat 5th…i would trade revere for reliever…and go hernandez cf, utley , brown, howard, pence, asche, rollins, ruiz (i think got himself a one yr deal with solid second half) or navarro or soto…bench ruf, frandsen, galvis, free agent, rupp or kratz

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    1. Hamels, lee, garza, gonzalez, morgan or halladay on a incentive laden deal…phils love him and i think will give him every opportunity

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    2. Your proposed package for what it would take to get Stanton is ridiculous. The Marlins would stop taking calls from RAJ for years just by how insulting that would be.

      And why trade a good, young, cost-controlled CF (a rare commodity) for the most fungible asset in baseball?

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      1. One i was just saying we have prospects and revere isnt that good…you dont keep someone because they are cheap sorry cost controlled

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        1. Every team has prospects. Not all prospects are created equal, though. Every team wants Stanton, and almost every team has more and/or better prospects to offer than we do.

          And yes, Revere is good. Certainly a better fielder than Hernandez. He’s also faster and has a better hit tool. Hernandez has a better arm and more power, MAYBE walks better, but not so much to overcome the difference.

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          1. Does Hernandez even have a better arm? I’m inclined to think not.

            I’m not going to waste a lot of words on this, though. Revere versus Hernandez is not close. The idea that the Hernandez experiment in center field is anything more than a way to increase his versatility as a bench player, I am pretty sure, is not something shared by the Phillies’ organization. If he develops further, he MIGHT have a future as a regular second baseman. He will never be a regular center fielder. (Or at least not an adequate one; major league organizations have been known to make strange decisions at times).

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          2. I want to talk about the walks a bit. Hernandez probably will walk a little more than Revere, but IMO the spread for this season (8.3 versus 4.8) exaggerates his likely edge.

            As a starting point, the two players have essentially the same plate discipline (very small, probably not statistically meaningful, edge to Hernandez in o-swing%). Both of them have good but not great plate discipline.

            Revere’s walk rate is as low as it is, despite good plate discipline, for two reasons. One is the high contact rate (fewer long counts = fewer walks). Hernandez has an “edge” there, but obviously not one that is a NET advantage. That is, his added walks won’t make up for Revere’s added hits.

            Power is the other issue – i.e., Revere doesn’t have enough power to “keep the pitcher honest.” But the same might well be true for Hernandez. SSS, but his major league ISO so far is just .051 (Revere this season was .048). Yes, he was better in AAA, but not THAT much better, still under .100.

            Absent some real improvement in his power numbers, I see Hernandez settling in with a BB% of about 7.0%. But as stated, his edge there (and maybe a slight edge in power) does not come close to outweighing Revere’s advantages (big edge in contact rate, significant edge in speed, an edge in defense).

            And for anyone who wants to quote Sandberg on Hernandez’ defense, it’s pretty clear from context (and from Sandberg’s tendency to exaggerate as a motivational tool) that what he’s saying is that his defense is surprisingly good for a guy who never played center field until last month. Which it is. Which does not make him even an average defender in center field. And Revere, despite not being as good as advertised for the Phillies defensively, is at least an average defender in center field.

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          3. I’m sure that someone will point out that I’ve written a lot of words for someone who said he wasn’t going to write a lot of words. Guilty.

            But one last point … even for those who have a lesser opinion of Revere than I do (and no one is saying he is a star), (a) that doesn’t mean that Hernandez is a legitimate option – he’s not – and even if he develops to the point where is would be (IMO doubtful), he’s STILL always going to have more value as a second baseman, and (b) you don’t give someone like Revere away for a reliever. He CERTAINLY has more value than that. Less than a year ago he was traded for a starting pitcher who had pitched like a 3 (though regarded as more of a 4 or 5) AND a .prospect with the ceiling of a mid rotation starting pitcher (albeit with a small change of reaching that ceiling), and a likely floor as a decent major league reliever. Has Revere lost value in the past year? I don’t think so.

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            1. Agreed. Revere rebounded well enough that his value should be similar to what it was last year. I also agree that Hernandez’s value at second will necessarily exceed his value in the outfield but I’m puzzled how, after two months, we can be so sure that he won’t be an average, or perhaps even above average, outfielder. A lot of good athletes make a capable adjustment to the outfield, including Werth and Braun, among many, many others. Admittedly, most make the adjustment to a corner outfield spot, but Cesar certainly has the speed of a center fielder. Look, I’m not saying Cesar will be a better option than Revere, what I am saying is that, if you had to trade Revere, I’m not entirely sure that Cesar couldn’t be just fine out there, if not ideal.

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            2. I think he could become an average outfielder defensively, eventually. But he isn’t that now. And he’ll always have a below average arm.

              As for offense, I am not saying it’s impossible that he’ll develop enough offense to be an average center fielder (overall), just unlikely. And again, he isn’t that now.

              I came around a little on Hernandez in prior discussions, but as of now (again, improvement is possible) I see him as maybe a 1.5 WAR second baseman. As a center fielder, I see him as a 1 WAR player (slightly less positional value, somewhat worse defense). That is not, IMO, “just fine.” Again he could improve. But we can’t just assume that he will.

              FWIW (and, given sample size, it’s not worth much), his defensive metrics are pretty horrible so far, in both center field and second base, though the second base SS is particularly small. The negatives are his arm in center, and his error rate at second base. The latter is quite possibly entirely an artifact of SS; the former IMO is more likely to reflect reality. His range at both positions is about average – a good sign in center field, not a particularly good sign at second base. Again, though, SSS.

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            4. LOL. Good one. Tyson GIllies is no longer in the long term plans. It’s not 2009 anymore. His prospect status has waned completely.

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            5. Hernandez is playing so much CF lately, because the Phillies don’t have a better CF with Revere hurt. Bernardina isn’t the guy and I don’t see a future for him with this team. Hernandez is a big step up from Mini Mart playing CF and is defensively a step up from Mayberry out there. Eventually, Hernandez is at least a short-term, couple of years replacement for Utley at 2B. Likely one of the guys from the low minors or a FA eventually gets the 2B successor job. For next year, Hernandez is a super backup. To fill that role, he just has to show over the winter and ST that he can sort of hold his own defensively at SS and 3B for part of a game to two games, until the team can bring up a minor leaguer as an injury replacement.

              I think Revere is a little better than Hernandez for next season, but really don’t see that huge of a gap between the two. Revere didn’t do all that great defensively in 2013 and Hernandez will continue to improve defensively with more time in CF. Neither will provide as much offense as you like to see from your CF, although both should have decent OBP. Neither has shown yet that they can rise to the level of average MLB starting CF, although both still have room for growth.

              I know some will cry SSS on Hernandez’s major league OBP, but he has been a good OBP guy throughout his minor league career, with .351 in over 2000 AB. That’s right on his current MLB level. I’d expect a little degradation of that OBP in the bigs, but that still puts him in the same .335-.340 obp range as Revere.

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            6. Allentown,

              We’re not disagreeing THAT much, and I don’t have time for a detailed response. Three quick points though. Yes, the comparison becomes a little closer if you assume Revere’s fielding in 2013 is his “real” level. And maybe it is. Without going into the counterargument, if that’s your belief, then maybe you do need an upgrade. But Hernandez isn’t that. If Revere is inadequate, so is Hernandez, but more so.

              As for the OBP, even setting aside specific reasons to be skeptical that Hernandez will OBP .340 in the majors, as a GENERAL matter I’ll take the guy with the .335-.340 OBP in the majors over the guy with a .351 minor league OBP.

              And this leaves out Revere’s advantage on the base paths, which IMO is the deciding factor. We don’t know how MUCH of an edge Revere has, but he has an edge.

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            7. Sorry, Larry. In my reply below I thought you were valuing Hernandez more harshly. I didn’t see your post above. Yeah, he’s probably a 1-2 win player at 2B of CF, which is fine for a utility guy but not quite a guy you want playing everyday. I’d definitely rather have Revere as his value is probably the best possible outcome for Hernandez.

              It’s very doubtful, given his arm, that Hernandez can play SS or 3B in any more than an emergency role. His future as a utility player probably hinges on if he can play at least an average CF. If he can play above average at both 2B and CF, he should warrant a roster spot, particularly for the next few years, with Galvis being a more than adequate defensive option at SS and 3B. You probably keep both of them around until (ideally) the emergence of Franco and Crawford forces one of them of the roster.

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            8. My fault, not yours, it’s my tone, it happens all of the time – my tone makes my opinions of players look more negative than they are. (eg. Ashe, Franco, Ruf).

              Two parting points. I think the Span comp is actually kind of interesting, but, as you say, there’s the likely difference in defensive value. I also want to make a distinction between Hernandez now and Hernandez (maybe) down the road. He isn’t a regular now. He could become one, and I may be overly skeptical about his chances of doing that. Again, if it happens, it will be (or at least should be) at second base rather than center field.

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            9. I’m not at all sure that this is true. This season a healthy, up until the broken foot, Revere had 22 stolen bases in 30 attempts. That is just about dead on the neutral point. Thus, any benefit from Revere’s base stealing is extremely small.

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            10. The following very much subject to SS cautions, but, to the extent that we can draw any conclusions from his major league play to date:

              His performance in the majors so far, has actually revised (very slightly) downward my projection of his BA – his k rate is over 20%. A BA of “only”.286 with a BABIP of .373 is not encouraging. His ISO is also worse than expected, and he hasn’t shown his speed on the base paths yet. OTOH, he’s (so far) done a better job of maintaining his BB rate than I expected. So there’s that.

              And yeah, I know there’s some “subjective” evaluations of his swing which are more positive than the above suggests. I don’t ignore that … but, at some point, that needs to be reflected in the numbers. It hasn’t been yet.

              Again, none of this denies that, given his age, he could improve. But so far his major league performance just confirms for me my impression that he isn’t (at this point) good enough to be a major league regular.

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            11. I agree with this. Hernadez, so far, is about what most of us thought he would be…which is “OK”. The fact that he might be able to play an average, or even a slightly above average CF at some point n the furture doesn’t really change the projection that much. I don’t see him as a starter without some major improvement in K rates, power or, preferrably, both.

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            12. In 1032 PAs at the AA/AAA level (last two years) Cesar H. had an approx OBP of .350+.
              A K rate of 16%, and a BB rate of 7%. All the skeptics will have different tap dancing songs next year. I will be fascinated to see the posts then.

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            15. I’d be very happy to do so. I root for all of the prospects to do well and am therefore always excited when someone exceeds my expectations.

              Not sure why you are so angry about my projection though. Next time it might be more to productive if you took the time to make a counter argument as to why you disagree with someone’s assessment of a player. The snarky comments are unnecessary and frankly don’t do the this site justice.

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            16. Different type of competition. But his ISO was under .100, only three qualified 2B had an ISO under .100 this year Darwin Barney, Jose Altuve, and Marco Scutaro. The highest K% is Altuve at 13%, then only one that is a major league regular or better is Scutaro who walked 8.2% of his PAs while only striking out in 6.2% of PAs.

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            17. First of all, that’s just not that good. Especially considering his lack of power. Maybe first, second and third of all. No, I’m being too subtle here. Absent gold glove caliber defense or a substantial increase in power, even if he could duplicate that in the majors (IMO unlikely), it is JUST NOT GOOD ENOUGH for him to be a major league regular. I mean, look at the pounding that Rollins has taken for his performance this season (as a shortstop, not a second baseman). His BB% is better than that, his K% better, and even his very disappointing ISO is close to Hernandez’ minor league mark over the past two years (even excluding his anemic major league mark). Yes, Rollins has a lower OBP. But see below; so will Hernandez. And Rollins did that against major league pitching.

              Second (or fourth) of all, admittedly a quibble, but his OBP was .343, not .350.

              Third of all (or fifth), in most cases minor league performance is not directly comparable to major league performance. In this case specifically, we have good reason – very good reason – to project a lower major league rate.

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            18. I agree that it’s unlikely Hernandez develops into a solid regular, but I’m a little more optimistic than you are. Fangraphs has leaders for minor leagues going back to 2006. It’s important to keep in mind Hernandez’s age. The best comp from 2006-2009 when you isolate 23 year olds is…Denard Span. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but Span does have the most similar numbers….7.3BB%, 16.4K%, and a .088 ISO in 2006. A lot of Span’s value is tied to his defense, but his ISO and BB rates improves as he aged. Again, if there were more years to look at, the comps might be littered with flameouts, but I don’t think it’s cherry picking to call Span the most similar 23 year old of that short period.

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            19. Sorry, meant to say Span was the most similar 23 y/o International League player. It’s hard to compare run environments between AAA leagues so I just looked at Int’l league players.

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            20. Both guys lack of any power likely limits their ability to get walked. Their value will likely be through speed and defense. Revere in CF and Hernandez at 2B seem to max out as average starters (which is great for a prospect but nothing special for a playoff team).

              Revere seems like a proven commodity while Hernandez is still projection, I expect both to have below average seasons as well. Hernandez ability to play multiple positions and Utley’s situation make him a useful cheap backup for Phillies. It would be a huge benefit to the roster if he could play SS in a pinch.

              From Phillies perspective I think an upgrade from Revere might be possible. For me the comparison I have is Revere vs Ruf. Should either of them start? Ellsbury, Choo, Granderson are possible OF options. Would it be better to put them in CF with either Ruf or Revere in LF? I like Ruf’s RH power bat in Phillies lineup with Brown, Howard, Utley but I have more confidence that Revere will repeat his season and not sure how much his defense would be worth.

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      1. Agreed, I said this in the beginning of the year (even before Brown got hot) It would have to be Brown, Franco, Biddle, Morgan, Diekman and Hernendez.

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        1. So, essentially, almost all of our good young players for Stanton – and you might be right about the Marlins demand this. If this were football and Stanton were a franchise quarterback, I might say yes. But it isn’t football, so, as great as Stanton is and may become, I’ll pass.

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  13. Any chance Halladay could slide to the bullpen? I know it’s probably very unlikely, but they could start him off as reliever in the beginning of the year and stretch him out as the year goes and so he can build up arm strength. Then, they could possibly put him back in the rotation mid year? Idk I’d like to hear some thoughts on that

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    1. I think either the Phillies have to move on from Halladay or get him to agree to a heavily incentive laden deal with no more than about $3-5 million guaranteed. I think Halladay needs to heal and put on weight and hopefully muscle. I’m not too optimistic that he’ll be back, but if he is, the team really needs to be careful about not wasting too much money on him. They have a lot of holes to fill.

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      1. Love doc, but time to part ways. The velocity was already a concern and it has only gotten worse. It’s just not a good sign. One of my favorite Phillies ever though

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        1. Doc developed a stomach disorder that keeps him from gaining weight. His father had it also. He is on meds to curb the ill-affect.

          On another note, Rube said yesterday that ‘Asche and Ruf are not slam-dunk in 2014 to be everyday players’.
          I hope this is a motivational tool he is using ensuring they come into ST at their best physical and mental states.

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          2. That exactly what Amaro should say. Even if not meant purely as a motivational tool, Amaro is clearly looking to improve the club this offseason. What if a very good corner OF or 3B become available?

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            1. Yes agree, that is what all the GMs say about youngsters. IMo, it is highly questionable a 3rd base candidate will ‘become available’ that can supplant Asche or even Franco at some point. Corner outfielder could be a possibility via a trade.
              OTOH, the primary need is starting pitching, after Hamels and Lee there are a lot of question marks. Not sure if he even adressed that in his talks . I may have missed that however.
              And then there is the question of the supposedly slimmer and more in shape Ryan Howard in Florida. Will he again become the Big Piece to the answer or remain the Big ‘?’ ?

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            2. I agree it is hard to envision a situation where Asche isn’t the 3B next year absent Franco going ballistic in winter ball and spring training . But you never know who may become available in the trade market so I agree with Amaro that it is not a “slam dunk”.

              Ruf is far less certain to be an everday player next year obviously. I still think his destiny is a part-time OF/part time 1B/sometime PH and the the club will look to get a corner OF this winter. I still think he could get 350-400 PAs that way and probably be very effective in that role.

              I hammer Amaro a lot, but I see nothing wrong with that statement.

              As for SP, not sure if Amaro mentioned pitching but Sandberg did the other day.

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  14. I think Amaro tries to reload the team and not rebuild so all the old vets stay. Bullpen should be easier to rebuild, lineup is mostly sets.

    Starting pitching is the most important. Assuming Lee is still here, then he and Hamels give them a chance, with an expensive #3 needed. Then the fun begins.

    Should Phillies arbitrate Kendrick? Last year they lost Schierholtz, but Kendrick could win and be expensive. What is he worth as a FA?
    I think Halladay will sign elsewhere to try to get a World Series title. I could see a number of teams taking risk on him.
    MAG is a complete unknown and may be on limited innings.
    Lannan is arbitration eligible who I am sure nobody really wants. However, I think he’d be cheap, adds to pitching inventory, and may still have an option left.
    I’d rather build the rotation with vets and keep inventory in AAA with Pettibone, Morgan, MAG then Biddle and Rosin. Cloyd will be gone.
    Lee, Hamels, Josh Johnson, Kendrick, Pettibone/MAG/Lannan. I could see MAG be a long reliever for the first half of the season then move into the rotation for the 2nd half (if he is any good).

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    1. If Doc goes, and Kyle Kendrick is not brought back. Why not use the money then for Masa Tanaka? Then there is Matt Garza, maybe even going for Ricky Nolasco, Dan Haren and Josh Johnson.
      Ruben needs to decide on MAG’s fate in the rotation or not in it, before spring training,
      The again Ruben is not a risk taker.

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  15. The Phillies know what MAG’s potential and limitations are and will build the off season around their decision. Your last sentence is really off base as Ruben is considered very aggressive and creative(converting Polanco to 3B). Ruben has flaws but not being a risk taker is not one of them.

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    1. But Romus is actually right. Ruben is mercurial. He does big things for sure. But, at heart, he is not a risk taker. To the contrary, he is incredibly risk averse. That’s why he so frequently trades prospects to obtain “established veterans.” That’s why we have Jonathan Papelbon. That’s why he traded for Hunter Pence when he had a first place team. That’s why he signs over the hill players to free agent deals and signs his own players to much longer or more expensive deals than they should get. He is risk averse to the point of it being extremely detrimental. And it has, in large part, caused the collapse of this team. If you want to see real risk takers, look at Billy Beane or whoever the heck is the GM of the Pirates – those guys are the real risk takers.

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      2. I don’t know if you can say he’s risk averse, Catch. Honestly, he’s just been wrong alot. With the exception of Utley (remains to be seen), he’s been wrong on just about every position player decision the last 4 years. Howard was a massive blunder. Rollins, who I love and thought was an ok deal at the time, was probably a mistake. Victorino is looking like a bargain. Werth isn’t likely to earn his contract, but remember there was talk of extending him prior to his career year of 2009. He probably would’ve taken a 5 year deal in the $80mil range. His leaving necessitated the Pence trade, whom he overvalued. Ibanez provided little value because he was so bad defensively. I guess the Polanco signing wasn’t bad? So there’s that.

        Aside from the Ruiz extension, which was kind of a no-brainer, and his patience with Dom Brown he’s shown just about no aptitude for evaluating position players. Some of the moves didn’t seem so bad at the time and some did, but the results have been almost uniformly negative.

        I almost hope for inactivity over the offseason because I think any impact move he makes will hurt the club long term. It’s always dangerous when your GM may sacrifice the longer term good of the team to save his job and Amaro is entering that territory. I’d rather us keep a low profile this offseason, accept one more year of mediocrity, and go into 2015 hoping that we 1) get two solid regulars out of the Asche, Franco, Hernandez, Galvis group, 2) keep Brown and Revere and 3) have a hopefully restocked farm system from two good drafts. At that point the organization is back on track somewhat and we can use our resources to lock our younger guys up and fill organizational holes rather than throwing gobs of cash at relievers and defensively challenged veterans.

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        1. Agree that RAJ seems poor at recognizing talent in that we got next to nothing back in our recent trades.
          On his trading prospects for vets, I wonder if the new stadium promised was his ordered “hurry-up” to fill the team with well known and talented players of reputation to encourage rewarding the city ASAP for the investment thereby giving up prospect futures for more immediate results.

          His record in player acquisition of late makes me fear how he would continue his mis-evaluations for ’14. A kind of nervous viewing of the sports online and in the papers.

          Maybe his admitted enlargement of stat-based evaluations will succeed in better results…

          We hope……

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        2. Well, I think he is risk averse, but clearly, his player evaluation abilities have compounded the other mistakes he’s made. When I have some time, I’ll write a short piece about what I perceive to the many failings of Amaro that have created the current situation. to be fiar to Amaro, he’s also had his share of bad luck too – there was no way to project that, after being the best pitcher in baseball for two years, Roy Halladay would, essentially overnight, get hurt, lose velocity, endure a bizarre illness and become a borderline 5th starter. That was just plain old bad luck.

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        3. One example of Amaro’s risk aversion. The defection of Cuban talent.
          Whereas Billy Beane went out last year and took a chance with Cespedes. Then there was Soler by the Cubs. Then came the Dodger’s with Puig.
          He waited to see how Cuban’s would fare in America.
          This hesitancy is a fault.
          MAG is finally his turn around, then there is the contract issue over the elbow concerns.
          He appears fearful of taking any chances with young untested talent.
          Think Dom Brown’s first 2/3 years of his career.

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          1. Romus, I have said this before and even Jim Bowden(former GM) said it; all big monetary decisions are made by the owners and no GM has total control. We already have had that discussion though and all I will say blame the ownership not the GM over the last 30 years for not risk taking.

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            1. Understand they all work within a bidget. But the Phillies budget is a tad hogher then the normal. Their payroll attests to that, ranking in the top 5 in MLB.
              But that is not the risk I refer to. He has no faith in younger players….until his back is against the wall, ie Dom Brown in 2013.
              Perhaps Charlie had something to do with Dom Brown’s situation in 2011 and 2012 and Ruben deferred to him, who knows. But Domo should have been playing full time back then.

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          2. So any GM who failed to sign Cespedes or Soler or Puig is risk averse?

            It seems silly to frame the debate this way. Giving Papelbon $50 million was a risk no other GM was willing to take. Ditto paying a king’s ransom in prospects for Hunter Pence. Trading a wildly popular Cliff Lee after a Cy Young-caliber season in order to trade away a bunch of prospects for Roy Halladay was risky, too.

            Billy Beane and Neal Huntington aren’t taking more risks than RAJ; they’re taking better risks.

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            1. Excuse me….Billy Beane sticking Cespedes in the lineup on day one…is a risk that Rube would never, ever, never, ever do as the WB Mason lady would say.
              Huntington has the benefit of poor finishes and high drafts going for him. And unless your colors are gold and black, a less demanding fanbase.
              Oops, all Pittsburgh teams are gold/yellow and black.
              Make that just the Steelers and Pens.

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            2. Oakland had 74 wins the previous season and no expectations. That’s kind of apples to oranges. If you want the answer to your situation with RAJ you have to see what he does with MAG next year.

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      3. Catch and Romus, take a hypothetical situation that the Phillies followed the A’s or Pirates approach what would the attendance be and what would be your profitability? Whether we like it or not the Phillies are a business and not run for our convience as some would seem to suggest on this board. Lastly, East Coast corridor teams don’t rebuild for 20 years like the Pirates or Orioles-they reload quickly which is why a bottom 10 finish will help the Phillies next year.

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        1. I think you’re missing the point. Nobody is advocating that the Phillies stop spending money or limit the resources that they apply for the betterment of the team. We’re advocating that the Phillies get smarter about how they use their resources and take sound, calculated gambles, rather than overpaying for perceived “sure things” that, upon further reflection, are anything but that. The signings of Papelbon, Howard, Michael Young, Mike Adams, Jose Contreras and Raul Ibanez are transactions by a general manager who is foolishly risk averse – taking significant money and directing it at established, aging players who, if you use some reasonable metrics, are unlikely to be worth what they will be paid. Similarly, Ruben’s historic player acquisition strategies have been to take risky prospects and convert them into established veteran talent. And when they were good, it was not a balanced strategy designed to allow the team to remain good over an extended period of time. As I used to say, prospects burned a hole in Ruben’s pocket. Every year, they packaged up the hottest “risky” prospects and sent them out for an older “less risky” player. Nobody is saying that they shoudln’t make some trades – all good teams need to make trades, but you can’t trade all of your good prospects every year and expect to remain good. Steinbrenner did that for many years and woke up one day and realized his team was terrible – this ushered in the more balanced Cashman era.

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          1. Catch, I understand your point but Ruben has to answer to the owners(the same pattern has been evident for 30 years now) and has to follow the Management team plans. You are right in that the signings you mention were done because the relievers, Asche and Brown were not quite ready for prime time. The Phillies have been unlucky with injuries the last two years but that risk come with older players and it has caught up to them. The farm system is recovering and we have some bright spots but not enough to keep the winning up. I am not sure why you used the Yankees as your example to make your point though.

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            1. If you had grown up in New York and watched George Steintenner trade all of the prospects every year for established veterans you would understand.

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            2. Well in the past the Yankees spent to keep contending and it looks like the Yankees are going back to their old ways because of a thin farm system. What do you call the Alphonso Soriano trade and not letting the young players play in the outfield? Brian Cashman is not happy with the meddling of the Yankee’s managing partners as the Yankees are facing the same problems the Phillies are.

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            3. Saw this article on Bleacher Report and I found it interesting because I always thought Yankees prospects got overhyped.

              Top-10 highest ranked BA prospects by the Yankees since 1990 (article is 2 years old)

              #10: Bernie Williams (#11 BA), #9)Drew Henson(#9 BA), #8)Jose Contreras(#6 BA), #7)Nick Johnson(#5 BA), #6)Derek Jeter(#4 BA), #5)Phil Hughes(#4 BA), #4)Joba Chamberlain(#3 BA), #3)Jesus Montero(#3 BA), #2)Ruben Rivera(#2 BA), #1)Brian Taylor(#1 BA).

              Someone else did a study awhile ago on BA rankings and found that for top-10 picks there was a 45% bust-rate, a 55% success rate. #11 is close enough to #10 to have Bernie Williams considered in there so that’s really only 2 great players (Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter) out of 10 players who were in the top 10 ranking of BA at some point.

              Seems to me the Yankees sold high on a large number of overrated guys.

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    2. ‘The Phillies know what MAG’s potential and limitations are and will build the off season around their decision’….huh?
      I am listening to Ruben right now with CSN Live today – he is not going to make a decision on MAG until spring training and they see more of him.
      So if they are waiting to see how he turns out, how do they go about their off-season maneuvering?

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      1. Do we know exactly what was wrong with his arm? Is there ligament damage in the elbow or is it just inflammation? The revised contract is so much lower than the original reported offer that it’s a bit alarming.

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      2. You actually believe what any GM says in public? I would say the Phillies know what they have in MAG and will rebuild accordingly from their conclusions.

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  16. Band-aids over bullet holes! Not to be too distantly focused (or pessimistic), but I truly believe this system is not in any position to compete for a title in the next few years and that rather than stop-gap measures to hang on to mediocrity, they’d be better served pursuing a 5-year rebuilding plan, with the dream scenario including bringing Mike Trout home in 2018. I hope they proceed the next few years similiar to how the Cubs have the past few.

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      1. Cubs had nothing and this year did a smart thing and signed 1 yr guys they hoped would improve and be worth something in mid-season trade (Feldman, Schierholtz). They only really had Soriano and Garza and I think did well on the Garza trade.

        Phillies have a bunch of aging stars that actually were part of the best teams in baseball for 3+ years. These old guys have little trade value at this point and all that will come back is just some average players at best. I think Phillies should spend money and not prospects to improve next season. They will likely not be able to put themselves into the discussion of a playoff favorite but would still have a chance if the old guys produce. If not there are younger (average) guys at most spots.

        Rupp, Ruf, Hernandez, Galvis, Asche, Brown, Revere, Dugan is certainly not going to scare anyone but I doubt a trade of Rollins gets anything much better than Galvis. Howard, Papelbon, Lee, Hamels, Utley, Adams are all expensive limiting their trade value.

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        1. Yes, new talent needs to be added with $ not trade of young talent. We have a talent deficit across the organization and need to add more, not exchange younger talent for middle aged talent. Patience and $ are what is needed, plus more good drafts and international signing seasons. In that regard, it is highly disappointing that the team left $1 Million of international budget cap on the table.

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        2. Ruf and Brown are already over 25 too and may have already shown their ceilings. The rest may amount to nothing more than a bunch of ham-n-eggers, especially compared to the Braves, who have Kimbrel, Teheran, Wood, Freeman, Simmons, Heyward and prospects Sims, Graham and Bethancourt all under 25 (J. Upton is only 26). In fact, in the entire NL East, I would rank the Phillies under-25 talent worst. Marlins-Fernandez, Stanton, Yelich, Marisnick, Heaney, Nicolino and Moran. Mets-Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, D’Arnaud, Montero, Nimmo, Puello, Cecchini. Nats-Strasburg, Rendon, Harper, Goodwin, Giolito, AJ Cole. Phils-Martin, Asche, Hernandez, Galvis, Franco, Biddle.

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          2. Maybe Morgan can be in there. Barring another injury, next year he should see CBP at some point.
            Mets-Cecchini, Nats-Giolito, Marlins-Colin Moran and Justin Nicolino…all may be a few years away from the show.

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      2. Yep…
        Draft-Castro, Almora, Baez, Bryant, Johnson, Alcantara
        Trade-Rizzo, Olt, Vizcaino, Edwards, Arietta, Strop
        International-Soler, Jimenez, Torres, Mejia, Moreno, Tseng
        Waiver-Bard
        They made the playoffs in 2008, weathered a horrible contract and will draft high again next year. They are reloading by gambling on talented players who may need changes in scenery and are betting heavily in the International market lottery. And they will have money to spend in free agency when they need to. I think they are poised to contend before us… and for a sustained run. So again, yes, I want to use the Cubs under Theo Epstein as an example of how to proceed. I fear proceeding on the path Ruben looks to be heading is going to bury us for a much longer time.

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        1. Don’t be surprised if some of those assets puts them in the hunt for David Price this offseason and/or Giancarlo Stanton eventually.

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        2. I like Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer’s approach also. They did shoot their wad this year in the International market and next year they get penalized for it, but the following year, 2015, they can do it all again. It is a plan. And they are not averse to risk taking.

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        4. Not to mention they made some pretty shrewd FA pick-ups on short term deals that they were able to trade off for prospects.

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  17. So JRoll just spilt a few beans in his interview with Marshall Harris tonight….which we all assumed…Dom Brown goes to RF next year and Ruf to LF.

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    1. Well that’s good news at least. It’s probably still a bit of a stretch for Ruf defensively, but it makes more sense than the current arrangement. I guess that means we’re not pursuing a FA corner OF? Not that that’s a bad thing…

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    1. Not sure if you saw but Sandberg says that he thinks Asche is exhausted, which is completely understandable. Guy has played a ton of baseball over the last 12 months

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  19. I think you guys are to narrow in your definition of risk. Was it a risk for the Tigers to put $200 Plus million on the table for Fielder and how about these long term $140 mil deals thrown at pitching? I’d call that big risk.

    Do the A’s really take risks or do they operate as a team with a non-caring fan base and limited pay roll and a crappy stadium? I think risk is relative to your market and expectations. I think when you have a core in place with a track record of winning a championship and consistently winning the division you take risks such as the Papelbon deal and the overpay to get him here.

    And the Pirates have taken 0 risk. They take every other clubs competitive balance money and scrap metal and throw it up against a wall then finally get a season where they get lucky. Forgive me but I don’t call that risk. I don’t even call it good GM’ing heck with that set-up it should never have taken them 20 years to have a winning record.

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    1. I agree to acertain extent on what you are saying about risk relative to your market and the expectations of the fan base.
      But I am not necessarily talking about strictly monetary risk.
      Talking more about the production risk on the field with untested talent or younger players.
      The Phillies, in this large market, have a higher budget then teams like the Pirates or A’s, so they can absorb the monetary loss more so then the small market clubs.

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      1. That’s fair and my points by and large are to shed light beneath the surface of perceived philosophy, signings, extensions etc…and to point out that the Phillies are not uniquely bad or good in any one area nor is any other club.

        Every club rolls the dice from time to time and it does or doesn’t work out. You walk into a public restroom you are not shocked when it smells like doo-doo but standing in line at your favorite boutique bakery and the guy in from of you cuts some major cheese you are probably pretty pissed off about it.

        Is that your bakers fault…

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    2. I agree with you; the problem I have with Amaro is the KIND of risks he takes and doesn’t take. But that’s more of a talent evaluation issue that a matter of risk aversion per se.

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  20. Not much time today, for which many will be grateful …

    I didn’t respond where it was brought up, because the nested responses would have made it unreadable. Allentown pointed to Revere’s SB% in 2013 as evidence that I might be wrong about him having a big edge on Hernandez as a base runner.

    As usual, SS rears its head. His career SB% is 78%, well above the break even point. In 2011 and 2012, he was over 10 runs above average as a base runner each year (taking into account not just SB and CS, but also other outs on the base paths and other advances on the bases). For his career, he’s about 7.5 runs above average as a base runner per full season. That’s exceptional – for the past 3 years, even considering his abbreviated and disappointing 2013, he is 13th in major league baseball among base runners. I doubt that Hernandez will be that good, though he should be a plus base runner, despite a very poor major league start in that regard.

    But even if you want to conclude that a 25 year old has suffered a permanent decline in his base running ability – yes, that narrows the gap between him and Hernandez. But it merely makes the case for replacing Revere stronger – it doesn’t make the positive case for Hernandez in center field stronger. Hernandez in center field is the kind of thing that a franchise like Houston or the Marlins does – a cheap below average placeholder.

    I think Hernandez will be a fine bench player, and possibly will mature into a decent or even plus second base regular down the road. I LIKE him. But he’s not a viable center field regular, now or in the future.

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    1. And by saying “as usual,” I wasn’t criticizing allentown specifically, I just meant “as usual when someone relies on single season data.”

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      1. Certainly no offense taken. Yes, it’s less than a full season of stolen base efficiency data, but it represents his only data for the National League. Perhaps it is down largely to unfamiliarity with the NL pitchers, or perhaps it’s harder to steal in the NL. The difference in steal % to his MLB career isn’t large. He’s also not a guy who had out-sized steal success % in the minors, however. We’ll have to wait and see what he can do next year as a base stealer.

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  21. team has to get rid of amaro.. problem is his goals are not the same as the teams, i would think. If they keep Amaro, he has to be in panic mode.. record is getting worse each year, little help on te way from the farm, few free agents and too many teams with $ to pay= hard to turn the team around.. so he may do something out of desparation with hte hope it pans out and he saves his job

    problem is, the sensible thing is to rebuild with eyes on contention in 3 years or so…that is an arbitrary number, but regardless don’t see how we are in the mix next year, or likely the year after

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    1. Wow, that’s a really an aggressive ranking of Crawford. But I like it. 🙂

      Interesting that Biddle is about where he was at the beginning of the year – great start balanced by late season command problems. May be too low if you buy that illness explained much of his second half struggles.

      Franco seems about right, though some around here will be upset with Sano at number 3.

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    2. and all three could move up next season. If Biddle goes strong next season at LV, which I think he’ll do, is it out of the question for us to have 3 Top 25s by mid-season?

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      1. Yes and no, because of where Franco and Biddle are, if by midseason they are consensus Top 25 prospects than they are in the major leagues because they have proven they are ready.

        It is going to be really hard for Biddle to really get above 40 on most lists for the rest of his career, because it would mean cracking the next level of starting pitching prospect without making it to the majors. This is the phenomenon that sees a lot of top players never hit elite spots on the list because of just when they made their breakout (for example Pujols essentially went from A-ball to the majors and so his highest rank was #42)

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        1. I could see Franco spending the year in AAA even if he ends up a consensus top 25 pick (with a September call up). Obviously injuries or ineffectiveness at the major league level could change that, just saying it is possible and even likely if Howard is healthy and Asche healthy and effective.

          You’re more likely to be correct about Biddle, if only because there are always pitching injuries.

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          1. If Franco is hitting .320 and OPSing 900+ at the end of May then I could see a mid-season call up. But I just don’t see that happening for him next season. Ruf would be an easy fit at first even if Howard is unable to take the field. Is Biddle getting his major league start by August? I’m not sure that’s a good possibility either. They could certainly go either way. The big club faltering early can open additional opportunities. Personally I’d hope that both of them are still playing with LV come next August

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            1. Looks like Howard is ready. He looks pretty fit now and his rehab is completed according to yesterday’s reports. Dropped 8/9 pounds, so we will see how he is in 5 months.

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            2. I don’t think reduced weight or even a return to full health is going to allow him to hit LHP or to lay off the low and outside breaking pitches. The slimmer, healthier Howard may well be a better platoon player against RHP and put up a .900 OPS against them, but basically I think Howard as a hitter and fielder has a lot of flaws that aren’t connected to his weight or health. He was heavier when he was producing his prime offensive seasons.

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    3. I’ll be curious to see where everyone ends up ranking Franco. #26 seems a bit higher than where he was in most midseason lists (more in the 40-60 range), and Sickels says he could end up top 20.

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  23. All this talk about Amaro’s approach versus the approach of other teams IMO clouds the issue.

    Different teams in different positions are going to (correctly) do things differently. I’m not sure that ANY other team right now provides a perfect blueprint for the Phillies. Even the Red Sox – similar financial resources and another team trying to rebuild on the fly – is a poor comparison. The Cubs are doing some nice things, but overall the situations are so different I’m not sure there’s much to learn there. The Pirates are a somewhat different matter (see the recent Fangraphs piece on the keys to their success), but obviously there are big differences there too, and a significant part of their success is McCutchen, and there’s always some luck involved in developing a young superstar. (and they have been lucky also – smart and lucky both – with some of their other key performers).

    But there ARE common threads among successful franchises, and franchises which seem headed in the right direction. Unfortunately a lot of it comes down to talent evaluation, which is a little bit like saying “successful franchises are successful.” But still IMO a problem for the Phillies, though more with position players than pitchers. (Though developing pitchers has been a problem.)

    But it’s also about deploying financial resources intelligently – something that has been a problem for the Phillies in recent seasons, regardless of how the blame gets apportioned. And there is IMO a trend of tolerating more risks for veterans than for younger players & prospects . IMO sometimes defensible, but on the whole I think the Phillies have a problem here. Obviously two sides of the same coin. While criticism of the team’s spending in the draft and internationally is exaggerated, there is an odd penny wise, pound foolish aspect to the comparison between overspending on veterans. Yes, Howard is the biggest example by far, with almost every other contract at least defensible, but I think it’s pretty clear that ON THE WHOLE reallocation of a little bit of payroll to the draft/international market would have paid big dividends. Of course going forward this is less of a factor because of rule changes – but still a factor.

    Finally, and I don’t see this as being quite as much of a problem as does Catch, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the most successful franchises take modern analytics seriously. The Phillies were, and Giants are (or maybe were now) the big counter examples that everyone cited, but more and more the franchises that are succeeding take modern statistical analysis seriously. Are there any exceptions among this season’s playoff teams? The Dodgers, Tigers and Braves are maybe less known than the other 7 for their use of analytics, but they all take it much more seriously than the Phillies do. Not so sure about the Tigers; But the other seven (true regardless of the AL wild cards) have all embraced modern analytics.

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    1. Larry, the Phillies are going to bring in more statistical analysis personnel according to Ruben and take statistics much more seriously.

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    2. Yeah, I did read that. And there have a been a few other good signs on some of the other issues. I’m taking a wait and see attitude on all of that. Hope for the best.

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  24. As the season winds down, I think it’s a good time to take a look at Rollins.

    Obviously a disappointing season by any standard. Last year was probably his last hurrah as a star-level performer. This year, while not the disaster that some people think it is, he was a below average regular. fWAR sees last season as 4.8, and this season as 1.6 WAR. That looks about right to me.

    It’s interesting, though, to break down the elements of the decline. He declined in 3 areas – power (by a lot), defense and base running (the latter two by a smaller amount; he is still above average in both). That’s it. Same BB rate, same K rate. His BABIP was improved, likely a reflection of the fact that his infield pop ups are back down close to league average rates (a little above average but not nearly as bad as last year).

    I’m not to going to make a detailed prediction going forward, except to say that I think he’ll likely have a mild rebound, probably to an average or slightly above average regular. Though with a player his age, obviously there is a risk his decline continues, as it surely will eventually.

    One thing that interests, me, though, is the contrast between disdain for Rollins and enthusiasm for Hernandez. This year’s model of Rollins is actually a similar – but IMO significantly better – version of Hernandez. Lower K rate, higher BB rate, much more positional value. Defense and base running, formerly a big edge to Rollins, is closer and maybe even a wash – but I wouldn’t give an edge to Hernandez. Power is a wash IF you make incredibly favorable assumptions favoring Hernandez (no rebound by Rollins & Hernandez duplicates his AA and AAA power). Against that Hernandez has his youth, and likely better ability to get a hit on a ball in play. But Rollins is at this point clearly still the better player. Yet people want to make Hernandez the regular center fielder, and trade Rollins just to make a spot for Galvis, a player, like Hernandez, who might never be a decent major league regular.

    And yeah, I GET that there is an arguable disconnect between this comment and my last one regarding prospects versus veterans. The relative ages of the prospects IMO explains a lot. But IMO not enough – if Hernandez is someone who you just HAVE to make room for, then Rollins is not someone who you want to throw on the scrap heap.

    Like

    1. I didn’t want to make an overly long comment even longer by getting into the whole “changed approach” issue, but I’m skeptical that there has been a change of approach. He actually increased his fly ball rate in September, reduced his ground ball rate, while keeping his line drive rate roughly the same.

      His BB rate is up a little, but probably not by a statistically significant amount.

      Like

      1. Agree Larry. I actually rolled my eyes when reading the article. Do it for the first 250PAs of next season and then I’ll start believing

        Like

      2. I think you’ve answered for yourself why it makes sense to trade Rollins. This is, of course, dependent upon what I believe is the totally reasonable assumption that keeping Rollins is not going to make the Phillies contenders in 2014. Reason #1 is that Rollins is on a fairly steep downgrade in his performance. This means that keeping him on the team and allowing him to vest his 2015 option is very likely an expensive disaster that will hurt the team’s ability to contend in 2015. Second, he is already poor value for the $. The team needs to add quality pitching. Rollins $ can go toward that, as can Halladay’s. We don’t want another winter like last year of spending $10+ million and adding no FA who are good enough to make the team a contender or to provide any help at all beyond year 1. That means dumping big $ on the Japanese pitcher, Garza, or someone similar who doesn’t cost draft comp. We can also use a RH OF who is able to be a contributor for multiple seasons. The advantage of Galvis/Hernandez over Rollins is that they are cheap and still have upside. If I thought we could be serious contenders in 2014, I’d keep Rollins and hope for a bit of a rebound, but I don’t see that as a possibility.

        Like

        1. Well I think my comment conflated a couple of different issues – I wasn’t as clear as I could have been. The first was what I see as the disconnect between opinions about Rollins’ performance this season and enthusiasm about Hernandez. I think that point stands.

          As for trading Rollins,.obviously that has nothing to do with Hernandez. Where I part with you is:

          (a) I just don’t see that the relatively meager salary that Rollins will make will make a big difference in the team’s ability to sign a decent FA. There’s money there as it is, if the team wants to spend it.

          (b) I just don’t think that Galvis has ENOUGH upside to make it worth giving him the job. Hernandez even less so in center, especially with Revere also being a cheap young guy. If I’m wrong, both players will have chances to prove it. Galvis should get 300 AB as a major league back up, and Hernandez, if the Phillies get another option year for him, can get 500 PA in AAA.

          (c) Not being contenders in 2014 is a good point, but cuts against your free agent argument.

          (d) I don’t really agree that he is a poor value for his salary, compared to potential free agents. If he rebounds just a little, he will be worth his salary. A bigger rebound and he might be a minor bargain. Whereas for free agents you almost have to overpay by definition. (I know you are not someone likely to be convinced by WAR, but a relatively small rebound to 2.0 WAR would make him worth his salary.) I agree that this is less likely to be true in 2015.

          As for letting Rollins’ option vest, I do think that they need to “rest” him enough to avoid that. I realize that might be difficult.

          But to be clear, a case can be made for Galvis over Rollins. I just don’t buy it. The above may make it sound like I think it is an easy call; I’m not really saying that.

          Like

          1. The case for Galvis over Rollins does not rest on Galvis being the better player in 2014, as that is quite unlikely. It rests on this difference really not mattering to the result for the 2014 season and the very real danger that Rollins vests for 2015 and utterly stinks. There is also the benefit of getting some value back for Rollins in a trade and putting his salary to use elsewhere. I stick to the $ argument. People keep saying that the Phillies have a lot of $ to spend, but they keep behaving like a team that doesn’t think they have a lot of $ to spend. I see the value of a major FA signing as being primarily for 2015. Plug a hole going forward. Plug another hole the following winter. Every year, add a couple cornerstones for the future, one from the farm and one by using our $$. A lot of posters went into last winter saying the Phillies would blow through the lux cap and sign a couple of the biggest names on the market. I said no, the lux cap was a hard limit. I was proven right. Either for the profit/loss, a sense of what spending level is ‘right’, or to support Selig ‘for the good of baseball’, the Phillies will continue to limit their spending. Monty has already spoken of 2014 in terms of family entertainment with familiar names and a hope that maybe the blend of kids with the old core will get lucky and produce a winner. Monty does not expect the Phillies to be competitive in 2014 and is therefore not about to okay increased spending. Also, I just don’t see Rollins as any sort of difference maker going forward. He could bounce back a bit in 2014. At least as high odds that he continues to decline. Very high odds that he is significantly worse in 2015 than in 2013 — that has been the very clear arc of his career.

            Like

      3. I’m pretty sure I whole heartedly agree. The team as it sits does not have an MVP caliber player and IMO without one you don’t win a championship. Some where some how they need to add that player. It’s not Brown and it’s not Ruf. While Brown is an above avg. everyday player he is not likely a guy that will be in an MVP conversation.

        Rollins is serviceable still. I’m not running him out of town when Crawford is something to dream on possibly making the club as our Machado in 2016. Franco is looming. Agree the Galvis/Ruf debate should be over. Nice bench pieces but neither are every day players. Ruf possibly if you were only to use him at 1B.

        I think we’ve already stated FA’s this year would not be worth the price for what they could add. Trades are always a possibility as is taking on Salary (Kemp/Tulo) if for some reason the Dodgers and Rockies felt they wanted/needed to get out from under the remainder of those contracts.

        The stark reality is they won’t fix this in a season it will take time and hopefully another solid #1 pick.

        Like

  25. When the Angels visit CBP next May, I hope all the fans welcome and cheer Mike Trout in a way that makes him want to come home and play for the Phillies some day.

    Like

      1. Might wanna start by giving him a bigger raise even though by rules they can just renew him as is. Once he hits arbitration he’ll break Lincecum/Ryan Howard (forget who has the highest) for arbitration figures. He seems more annoyed by the way they’ve handled his salary than Hamels was with the Phillies way back when.

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        1. C’mon you all know how this works. He’s 22 and the earliest he can become a FA is 2018 which makes him what 27 at that point. If at age 24 they put that $200 Mil in front of him do you think he says no?

          I mean once they sign that is money in the bank. He doesn’t have to worry about getting hurt in the next 3 years, he doesn’t worry about performance dropping off he is set.

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          1. He’ll be set for life from arbitration alone. If he decides he wants to take a risk for even more money and/or decides he wants out of the Angels organization, he won’t sign a long contract with them.

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      2. Arte Moreno may not be able to afford him as he will still be paying Pujols and Hamilton then and Trout might want to stick it to the Angels after their ridiculously low offer to him.

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  26. Master batters, speaking for myself, why would i want to come back and play here if the money is the same. You have no support, the gm is a moron, the owners dont see it, and playing and living in warm weather year round, would make me stay on west coast, Mike trout, imo would never put himself under the philly pressure, when he can stay out west and play for dodgers or giants, a number of teams. that know how to win championship, giants would be great fit, with there eye for pitching, dodgers are the yankess, of years ago, right now. And if he really wanted to play for a great orgianziation then its the cardinals. they just know how to win and be good year after year, let go of a major league superstar in pujios and havent missed a beat.

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    2. So the Cardinals, who didn’t break the bank for Pujols, are going to break the bank for Trout when he hits FA?

      Do you see the irony in your statement?

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      1. yes I will mend my ways , riggs, it was just that all thing egual, why come here, was the point, but you know things can be twisted. they didnt break the bank for pujols because they know what they are doing,.if trout was a missing piece, they would do it, they are just a great francise. you think that they arent??

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    3. Warm weather is overrated; the change in seasons is beautiful; and snow at Christmas is awesome. My comments (the earlier ones, at least) were clearly with hopes the team adopts a better plan (Cubs reference) and builds an attractive landing spot for any FA in five (5) years. I only mention Trout as a best case scenario as the finishing touch to the rebuilding plan, 1) because he may be historically great who’ll be a FA at the peak age of 27, at a time that would happen to coincide with the type of rebuild I think needs to occur with this franchise; and 2) we have some extra external factors working in our favor as opposed to the other 29 teams (he’s from this area, loves Philly and its sports teams, is reportedly tight with his family, has local girlfriend from HS, has a current team whose outlook is not great, has reported discord with current team, etc.) But I agree that the odds lessen dramatically IF the Phillies do not improve their outlook in the next few years. I’m just saying theres a chance (cue Lloyd from “Dumb and Dumber”)

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  27. When people on here say I am angry and vent, this is why, this francise is a disgrace, and with amaro in charge, and being in my late fiftys i will die and never see another title. 2 titles, they would have to go 160-0 for six years to be five hundred, my god, that is a disgrace.

    # 14 – Philadelphia Phillies
    “They were the first of two American teams to lose more than 10,000 games, and their all-time record is so far below .500, they could go 162-0 for six straight seasons and still not be shooting par. In 130 years, they’ve won only two World Series—same as the Toronto Blue Jays, who started in 1977 and play in ****ing Canada

    Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Phillies-rated-14-on-Worst-Franchise-list.html#GL3crYzluiDt54Il.99

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    1. I couldn’t even begin to care less. The Phillies were AWFUL in the 30-60’s. That was literally 20-50 years BEFORE I WAS EVEN BORN. Who gives a crap?

      Like

    2. I’m in my 60s and also couldn’t care less. Focus on the present and the near future. That is the only place where decisions can be made and results enjoyed. I also don’t measure success by titles. The playoffs are a crapshoot of SSS. My measure of success is making the playoffs year in and year out. My goal is to get back to that competitive position as soon as possible, and I believe that to be 2015. The Phillies won a WS in 2008. They’ve had better teams in recent history than that 2008 team. Of those teams, the 2010 team was likely the best overall. To me, 2010 was a great season.

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    6. So roccom… since it is mathematically impossible for Brown’s average to drop below .260 on the year, are you just waiting until after the last game to apologize and never post again?

      Like

      1. We can only hope and pray. Unfortunately, I don’t think roccom will go that quietly. He will plague us with bad grammar, bad spelling and run-on sentences for years to come.

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        1. Riggs does bad grammar mean someone doesnt know the game. I didnt have the opportunitys you kids now have, I needed to work and support a sick father and mother , you college asshole. college kids are so ignorant when it come to life. All they want to throw up is how smart they think they are, but no common sense, if you had any, you would see. not all of us had the opportunitys in life a lot of the young kids on here had. at fourteen my dad had bypass surgery and we had nothing, i had one pair of pants to attend school. thats why with no money I worked, no one pay my way, so when you talk moron, think first, even with your good grammar, you and romus arent a pimple on my a$$. the things i done to raise and help my family were not the easy life a lot of you had, three jobs 7 days a week, so take your comments and stick them where the sun doesnt shine., sorry matt. but young guys who think they know it all, arent worth a shit,.

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          1. Yes it does. You don’t know the game. You rant and rave about the game, but you don’t know the game. I would love to meet you and discuss the game of Baseball sometime, just to see how you are in real life. And stop with the name calling. It’s degrading.

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      2. Anonymous did say I was wrong about ability to hit fastballs, but sorry the jury is still out how good he is going to be, I still dont see it, sure I can be dead wrong, but still dont think he is a 25 homerun, 270 and up hitter, do it next year and then yes, the league will make adjustments, I want to see how he does, The one thing he does well, imo is work a count. still not a good outfielder, doesnt use his speed, so lets see how good he becomes, but this year I was dead wrong.

        Like

        1. Personally I just wanted an apology. Not even to me personally, but to the people you bad mouthed about Brown and to Brown himself (even if he would never see it). But seeing your rant above, I’ve changed my mind. You want to talk down to the younger generation; to MY generation? Fine then. Put your money where your mouth is. And I don’t even mean with something like grammar. You don’t think it’s important? Okay, let’s play by your rules.

          You want to know what I learned from my dad? It wasn’t anything you needed a fancy education to learn. He’s a man after your own heart; worked his way through school, never did graduate from college, but started his own business and provided for his family. What he taught me was to honor my word. So if you want to say you are above my generation, above me, then honor your word. And your word had nothing to do with anything beyond this year. You did not say you didn’t think he would have a good career. You said, and I quote, “i PROMISE if he hits 260, with say 15 homeruns , YOU wont have to ever see me post again.” Guess what? He DESTROYED your prediction. He did it. Now own up.

          And one last thing; don’t you EVER look down on someone for taking advantage of their opportunity to make their lives better. Education should be encouraged, not mocked. Maybe your life was harder than mine, I can’t really say. But you know what I can say? I can say that my position in life allows me a far greater chance to help the world than yours does. And that is not an insult to you, it is just the facts. Because I get to build what has been put in place. And I will have been taught more than you ever were because, simply, we know more now.

          Oh, and by the way, thank you, and your entire generation, for destroying the economy AND the environment. It should be a fun time for my “no common sense” generation to clean up after the generation that didn’t have the forethought to wonder what our impact on the planet might be.

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          1. wow your really more ignorant than i could ever imagine. i would never look down on education., What you should have learned from your dad is the word RESPECT. you dont have it, and by your silly rant will never get it, shame just a wasted generation, just glad my kids know how to show respect, its important in my world, by the way, and if you werent blind. one season doesnt prove anything, but in your world it does, just go on and keep downing people, it will bite you someday, and do me a favor dont answer my post or read them, i have learned to not read two people on here, and it makes it a lot better, you should try it, sorry matt i dont want to turn this into a personal fight, so nomatter what is posted, in regards to me i wont response, its silly for me to have to try to defend myself to silly young kids,

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            1. I respect people who have not done anything to lose respect. You have done plenty to lose it. And it is not a matter of how I judge a player. It was YOUR promise that you are breaking, not mine.

              By the way, a man who isn’t good for his word is not a man who can lecture anyone.

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            2. You use respect as a shield, but you have none yourself. Look at what you posted above. You have no idea of my situation, my lot in life, and yet you bash someone for being educated. You are laughable. Seriously, community colleges offer courses in grammar and spelling. They don’t cost that much.

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            3. roccom knows he can’t win in an argument, so he moves the goalposts. I wish anonymous would get a proper handle. I would buy anonymous, the ignorant educated poster, a beer.

              Like

  28. Phillies could explore going after Jason Hammels as a 5th.
    An oddity, a Hamels and Hammels in the starting five going back-to-back.

    Like

    1. Well, there’s no “s” in Hammel’s last name, but yes that would be amusing. Almost as amusing as listening to Sarge talk when Halladay is pitching to Holiday.

      Like

  30. Last night was with a guy who has a press pass, and does some intenet sports stuff, he was telling me. for what its worth the phillies will try to move ruf this offseason. He also said you could see in the locker room, that the veterans were not happy with some of the additon, and this was early in the year. I look at there offense and just wonder how do they fix it,This is a big off season, and with howard at first,if he doesnt produce, its going to really hurt them.

    Like

    1. Ruf would have value to an AL team for the obvious reasons.
      I am hoping the Tiigers blow a few games late and lose in the first round and Dave Dombrowski realizes for 2014 he will need a closer with experience and would be willing to take Paps. Then you can also sweeten the package with Ruf.
      Ruf would probably hit 30 dingers in that park as a combo DH/1b.

      Like

      1. Ruf would probably hit 30 HRs for the Phillies as a combination LF/1B. After he did that, he’d have a lot more trade value than he has today. Much more value from actually hitting 30 HRs for a full season and playing a good defensive 1B in he bigs in 50 starts than just hitting at a 30 HR rate for a bit less than half a season while lumbering around out of position in RF. Besides that, selling too early is a clear sign of undervaluing the guy, being a little desperate to trade him, and begging to be fleeced.

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    2. If you had convinced yourself that 2012 was just a fluke and were gearing up for a shot at another post-season, I think you’d also find the addition of the Youngs and the absence of Ruiz to be a downer. The players likely also knew that Adams was still hurting and Halladay wasn’t his old self. This was a bad season from the start.

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      1. From the start of the winter. Did any of the winter player survive the season? There is NO reason the dreaded “Winter Meetings” will be less nuclear.

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        1. Revere will be back and contributing next season, but Durbin, and the Youngs were a total loss and I suspect Adams and Lannan will be as well. So yes, the product of last winter comes down to Revere. I suspect a lesson was learned and that this year’s fall (not winter) meetings will lead ot a more productive off-season for the PHillies.

          Like

          1. Btw, I contend that those who claim that these guys were one-year fixes, whom the Phillies could afford and weren’t the cause of the 2013 flopparooti have it wrong, just as they are wrong that it really doesn’t hurt that the team didn’t sign two top 10 draft picks and is leaving about $1 mill of their mid-range international allocation on the table. After 2012, the Phillies were in a deep hole. Just treading water doesn’t get you out of the hole. A year in which you made no progress in fixing things is a seriously missed opportunity which delays a return to contention. With little budget cap, RAJ needed to spend it wisely, filling at least one hole with somebody to can be a part of the team’s next core, not just someone to man a position as we muddled through the season pretending we were going to contend. With a bottom half of MLB major league roster and a bottom half of MLB organizations’ farm system coming into the system and with smack-in-the-middle allocations for draft and international bonus caps, the team needed to aggressively spen 104.99% of their undiminished caps, with quite a few uncapped $100K bonuses being handed out in the draft or supersized with the 4.99% overage money. I credit the team — big credit, actually — for signing MAG and also for replacing Manuel, but all-in-all a self-delusional year of missed opportunities. As I said above, I really hope some lessons were learned in 2013 and that a different course will be charted for 2014.

            Like

          2. but this has happened over and over again. Just that the core was good enough to fix
            Eric B etc.

            Like

  31. Oh, he writes about sports on the internet? Then he’s the equivalent of whoever tosses up a goof ball comment on here. They let guys who write on the internet in the locker room? What was he doing in there, trying to read facial expressions when various names were mentioned , or did the players openly criticize other players in front of the media? I think , if he was in there, which I doubt, the gaze would have been directed more angled towards the floor. Despite the effort to downgrade Ruf, early in the year (when the “not happiness” occurred – no Ruf. What? This guy is privy to the plans of Ruben Amaro Jr.? He must be Rube’s buddy. Yet , he claims discontent by veterans over the moves of Rube? Maybe the r00b will pull his phony press pass.
    One, with a couple of clicks on the internet, can send away for identification saying “Press Pass”, ” President of Zimbabwe”, “Official Bikini Inspector” or anything else.

    Like

    1. Here is an interesting WTF comparison:
      Jason Heyward:
      PA- 429….256/.347/.432/.779 – 37 XBH- 14HR -38 RBIs -17%K – 10%BB
      Darin Ruf:
      PA- 288….251/.351/.466/.816 – 35 XBH – 14HR -30 RBIs – 30% K – 12% BB

      Like

    2. Dunno who Roccom’s source is, but some guys who write about sports on the internet are head and shoulders better at it than some of the guys who write about sports in the newspaper.

      Like

  32. I stated that for what it worth.you most likely are right. I have a question if someone can help, I know a lot of guys talk about francos, ground balls to linedrives, I real am trying to understand ,what is a line drive in these numbers, is a flyout a line drive? blooper count as linedrives? are these numbers only on his hits, what i mean is , how many of his hits are line drive compared to grounders. I need to get a better feel for what you are talking about,

    Like

    1. Roccum – Fly Balls and Line Drives are counted separately, as are Ground Balls (i.e. FB%, LD%, GB%). A popup on the infield is generally registered as a Fly Ball but popups are also tracked separately as a % of Fly Balls that were infield popups (IFFB%).

      BABIP is somewhat of a useless stat without considering the types of batted balls which led to the BABIP. BABIP is not a stat generated strictly from luck

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      1. Also worth mention, as the name indicates, these percentages are purely on balls in play. That means, obviously, a K or BB does not factor into that percentage. The one people tend to forget, though, is HR is not accounted because that is also out of play (also foul balls, but people don’t tend to regard those in any discussions).

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  34. Could the Phillies have another Abreu in the lineup? Jose Abreu was declared eligible to sign, basically, without any restrictions on the signing club. However, not sure where the 6’3″, 250 lber would play?

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  36. Phils eye-balling the 7th pick in next year’s FYPD. A loss tonight all but assures us of a Top 10 – no. 7 has a nice ring to it though

    Like

    1. After last night’s win the Phils are 73-88. From what I could gather the Phillies have secured a Top-10 pick in next year’s draft and it will be protected. The Brewers with one loss less than us into the final day are not a threat since we hold a tie-breaker with them (worse of 2012 records wins tie-breaker). We lose tie-breakers with Toronto, Colorado and the Mets.

      So worse case today, we win, Toronto loses and we get the 10th pick. Second worse, we win, Toronto wins and we get the 9th pick. But we really want to lose today. A loss against a win by either Colorado or the Mets moves us ahead of those teams. Losses in parenthesis below

      1. Houston (110)
      2. Miami (100)
      3. ChiSox (98)
      4. Twins (95)
      5. Cubs (95)
      6. Mariners (90)
      7. Colorado (88)
      8. Mets (88)
      9. Philadelphia (88)
      10.Toronto (87)
      11. Milwaukee (87) – even with a loss, we win tie-breaker over Brewers
      12. San Fran (86)

      Like

      2. and the Mets with a late inning comeback against the Brewers. Barring a great comeback by the Phils today (losing 11-4) they will pick no worse than 8th next year. If the Rockies can know of the Dodgers this afternoon, The Phils pick 7th

        Like

    1. Amaro sounds as if tendering a contract to Kendrick is one of his easier decisions. Funny, I thought it would be one of his harder ones. As someone who defended Kendrick for a number of years, I’m really disappointed with how poorly he pitched this summer particularly after his very good start. With an arbitration figure certain to be in the $7-8mil range, he’s hardly a bargain anymore.

      http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130929_Phillies_will_offer_Kyle_Kendrick_a_contract_for_2014.html

      Like

      1. Steve….you need to purchase the new book just released ‘A Phranchise in Ruin (2009-2013)’…the bio of GM Ruben Amaro.

        Like

      2. So it would be a one year deal for 7 million. Is that correct?? cause anything more than that to me is crazy. as fourth or fifth starter, I guess it okay,Most likely they feel he is best option for now, until morgan or biddle is ready,

        Like

    2. The case for resigning Kendrick is made pretty well in the link below (though I am personally a bit more indifferent). Basically the case is that he will be paid in an amount that roughly equals his production (which isn’t enough to prohibit other moves), he won’t be taking innings from any prospects and if he performs well in his pre-FA season he will be worth soemthing at the deadline.

      http://crashburnalley.com/2013/09/02/should-the-phillies-keep-kyle-kendrick-around-in-2014/

      Like

  38. Can this be a possibilty!
    Ruben gets one more year and then he moves on.
    Monty gets one more year and then he moves on to replace Bud Selig.

    Like

  39. Would the Phillies take Beede if he was there, goes against there usual drafting strategy but he might be the best available at their pick.

    Like

  40. With the season over, time permitting, I plan a serious of posts regarding next year’s major league team. Just a few quick thoughts today:

    The “tear it down” option never really existed, and doesn’t exist now. There are two basic options for next year, with some intermediate possibilities. On the one hand, a basically status quo approach, with perhaps a couple cheap free agents. The other option is to try to rebuild on the fly, with multiple trades and free agent moves. I favor the former at this point, with the caveat that going after a good non-compensation corner starting pitcher or corner outfielder will might make sense. Garza is the best non-compensation starter (and likely player of any type). I’ve commented in opposition to going after him, but I do think they should at least make him an offer. I don’t know if I want to see them go 4 years on him, and I think that’s what it might take. But there’s no harm in kicking the tires.

    The question then is this: how good will the team be with a basically status quo approach? The short answer is better, probably several games better, but not a contender. Maybe .500?

    The long answer as to why I think they will be several games better.will have to wait. The short answer is: addition by subtraction. D. Brown and M. Young are gone. So is L. Nix. Mayberry may be gone, but in any event won’t start 89 games. Bernadino will likely be gone. Frandsen likely will be back, but not starting 51 games, 34 of them at first base! Those players – all either below replacement, or at replacement – collectively started well over 350 games! Significantly more than 2 full time regulars. The guys replacing them may not be world beaters, but they are a good bet to (at least) be above replacement level. Those 6 guys were, collectively, negative 2.6 WAR. And I didn’t even mention the horrible M. Martinez, who managed to almost a full win below replacement in just 38 PA.

    Who is going to get those PA? Asche, Ruf, Revere, Howard (who, despite his much reduced value, is going to be more valuable than, say, Frandsen, a guy I like a bit at third base but who is no one’s idea of a first baseman), maybe a cheap FA pick up. Maybe Mayberry gets a few starts, but not in center field where he is terribly over matched. Not inspired? Look, at least those guys, collectively, are going to be a much better than the Youngs et al.

    A somewhat similar situation obtains among the starting pitchers, with Halladay, Cloyd, and Lannan all probably gone, and Kendrick likely on a fairly short leash if he is back at all. The problem here is that it is not so clear who will replace them – but the team can hardly do worse.

    Bottom line: one advantage of having so many really bad players is that it’s pretty easy to get better just be replacing them with decent (or at least above replacement level) players.

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    1. As a proponent of the tear it down approach my opinion was based solely on the premise the current team would win in the low to mid 80’s every year meaning not being truly competitive and would slowly fall apart while not ever getting high enough protected to picks to truly rebuild thus stretching the rebuilding period. The fact this team got to the seventh pick i am satisfied we did not blow it up as the team was much worse than i thought and can lose enough to rebuild as constructed. On a side note, i assume while you said D. Brown you meant D Young as a guy who is an addition by subtraction. I hope that is obviously understood for those who read your post.

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    2. Perhaps where Amaro has struggled most, even if not as publicly announced, has been his challenge in putting together a competent bench. I’m not so confident that there won’t be a 2014 version of DYoung on the big club.

      Speaking of the 2014 bench; Galvis -and- Hernandez may be a very good place to start. Between the two of them they account for two capable backup outfielders with Galvis even capable of serving as a defensive replacement, a SS, 2B and 3B. It typically takes a team 3-4 players to cover those positions. IMO, Galvis should be one of the easiest picks for the bench next season

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      1. Oh I think his inability to build a decent bench is perhaps his biggest flaw as a Genral Manager. I would see Galvis as a definite member of the bench and likely Ruf (assuming they obtain a corner OF). That’s a good start. That would leave Frandsen, Hernandez and a back-up catcher. Frandsen could be the odd man out of they can find someone with a little more versility or a little more pop

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  41. I like galvis as a utility, player, is Hernandez good enough to play center?? been starting to look at next years draft, looks like there is another anthony gose in top ten, 95 fastball, and plays center, anthony griffin, a couple of early power bats in top ten two. I really want that right hand bat with power, unless the best guy is a starting pitcher,looking at next years team. the infield will add ache, and the outfiled seems to be revere, brown and ruf, and mystery at catcher, that isnt a great offense team to me. 5 left hand bats and 3 right, ruf is still okay player, not that superstar right hand power bat,that can carry the team..The guy isnt young anymore either.

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    1. I want the best player. Period, period, period. Here’s an example of what happens when you draft in the MLB by need and, mind you, this is a little hypotehtical. Let’s say you’re the Baltimore Orioles. In 2007, you draft a really good young college catcher, named Matt Wieters. You stink again in 2007 and have the 4th pick in the 2008 draft. You decide that there are a number of very good players, but you need a pitcher, his name is Brian Matusz, a very good college pitcher with a high upside. In picking Matusz, however, you don’t pick the player you rated most highly because that player is a catcher and you already have the catcher of the future in your system – Matt Wieters. So you pass on the catcher and take the player you perceive you now need more – Matusz the pitcher. Here’s the problem, the catcher you passed on is named Buster Posey. If you had drafted Posey, your entire teams looks different for years to come and having two catchers is not a problem, because Wieters has tremendous trade value and you’re able to flip him for some young pitching and outfield talent. But now, the Orioles have a good, not great, catcher in Wieters and a maringally okay pitcher in Matusz. Picking by need was a disaster for the Orioles in 2008 and could be for the Phillies in 2014. Pick the best player and everything else takes care of itself over time.

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      1. Well catch that is a very good example.
        Well the O’s will not make that mistake again….they let their minor director walk without trying to negotiate a bigger contract…a guy named Joe Jordan.
        Oh no…we got Joe!

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            1. Ok. I just wasn’t sure if he made the final decisions. I’m sure it was a collaborative effort but we have no way of knowing what direction he wanted to take.

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            2. I doubt he made the final decision – that’s usually done by the GM and head of player development in consultation with the owner. Not sure if they really had Posey rated ahead of Matusz, but there’s a good chance they did.

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      2. I want best player available, but am wary of college arms — too many abused pitchers, with abuse happening after the draft in some cases. BIG BAT at any position would be great.

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        1. I prefer college arms in the top ten pick area since they have had the most success of late and are ready to make the jump to the MLB within a 2/3 year window, and make an impact.
          Later in the draft I am wary of college arms. Not sure of any making the greatest impact as a starter, in partucular.

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          1. Like Brian Matusz? Sorry, given the example above, I couldn’t resist.

            Again, my view is best player, best player, best player. How you rank and rate those players is another interesting issue, but assuming your methodology is valid, you pick whoever you believe will be the most valuable major leaguer, regardless of need.

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      4. Totally agree best player even if its third basemen. your points are right on as far as best player availale. all i meant to say was in a perfect world, hope its a right hand power bat.

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        1. Amen. Sorry for the soap box – glad you agree. Many people think drafting a player is like shopping for a new car – just get the one you and need right now and you’re good to go. It just doesn’t work like that.

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  42. I guess if Atlanta QOs Brian McCann, ilo of giving him the 4/5 year big contract, Ruben may pursue him without now sacrificing the first pick.
    Not sure that is a good idea.

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  43. Just saw we are not re-newing Dubee. Hopefully they revise minors coaches also. This organizations biggest problem has not been advancing pitchers and they have a horrendous record keeping them healthy. IMO we are long overdue for a change of philosophy regarding organizational pitching approach.

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