Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Lower Half

Other Stuff

The report card on Starting Pitchers in the lower half of the organization.  Remember, grades are against each pitchers pre-season expectations I had for them, not against each other.  Next up are Relief Pitchers (LV, Reading and Clearwater)…lots of names, so I am shooting for Tuesday.

Lakewood

Mark Leiter, 22, Phils 22nd round draft pick in 2013 draft; 16 games (4 starts) between GCL, Lakewood and Clearwater; 45IP 34H 13BB 50K; 0.71 GO/AO; .210 opp. avg; 1.04 WHIP; 2.6BB/10.0K per nine; Leiter pitched extremely well after being drafted this year, having success at each level he pitched at.  Grade: A; 2014: He will be 23 by the time the 2014 season starts and has done nothing to suggest he shouldnt start the season in CLearwater.

Miguel Nunez, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 26 games (22 starts); 10-8 with a 4.22ERA; 130IP 136H 38BB 80K; 5HR allowed; 0.82 GO/AO; .270 opp. avg; .315 vs. LH, .239 vs. RH, .265 with RISP; 1.34WHIP; 2.6BB/5.5K per nine;  Post All Star Break: 13 starts, 5-4 with a 3.59ERA. Nunez really came on as the year moved along and was perhaps Lakewood’s most consistent second half starter. He skipped over WIlliamsport to play in Lakewood this year and his 2013 should be considered very successful.  Grade: B; 2014: Clearwater

Jon Prosinski, 22, Phils 10th round draft pick in 2013 draft; 13 starts between WIlliamsport and Lakewood; 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA; 53.2IP 74H 11BB 38K; 4HR allowed; 1.88 GO/AO; .326 opp. avg; 1.58 WHIP; 2.0BB/6.4K per 9; FOr Lakewood: 8 starts; 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA; .316 opp. avg; .179 with RISP. A very interesting line for Prosinksi.  He was hit very hard but consistently worked himself out of trouble with fantastic numbers with runners in scoring position and very good control.  He had a long year after a full season at Seton Hall.  The bottom line looks good, but getting there wasn’t pretty. Grade: C+; 2014: I would give him another half dozen starts in Lakewood before a call up.

Shane Watson, 20, Phils 1st round pick in 2012 draft; 16 starts; 4-6 with a 4.75ERA; 72IP 63H 12HR allowed; 28BB 53K; 1.45 GO/AO; .230 opp. avg; 1.26WHIP; 2.7BB/6.6K per 9; .183 vs. LH, .261 vs. RH, .233 with RISP;  Watson was up and down through the year until we went down injured and missed the last two months of the season.  He clearly has a good deal of talent but has yet to prove that his body can handle the professional workload.  Grade: C; 2014: CLearwater; Prospect Ranking: 17

Ramon Oviedo, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 16 games (6 starts) between Williamsport and Lakewood; 2-4 with a 5.05ERA; 46.1IP 54H 15BB 33K; 0HR allowed; 0.80 GO/AO; .295 opp. avg; 1.49WHIP; 2.6BB/6.4K per 9; For Lakewood: 11 games (6 starts); 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA; 1.62WHIP; Continued mediocrity for Oviedo who has yet to prove that he can be consistent at Low A. Grade: C-; 2014: Lakewood if his time has not run out

Yoel Mecias, 19, SIgned as a free agent in 2010; 13 games (11 starts); 4-3 with a 3.79ERA; 1 save; 57IP 53H 25BB 70K; 3HR allowed; 1.18 GO/AO; .244 opp. avg; 1.37WHIP; 3.9BB/11.1K per nine; Mecias was pitching very well, with one of the highest strikeout rates in the organization before suffering a significant injury that required Tommy John surgery. When he comes off his rehab sometime in 2014, I would imagine he needs to re-prove himself in Lakewood. Still plenty of hope for the youngster.

Jeb Stefan, 23, Phils 22nd round draft pick in 2012 draft; 35 games (13 starts); 6-7 with a 3.55 ERA; 111.2IP 101H 37BB 93K; 11HR allowed; 1.23 WHIP; 3.0BB/7.5K per 9; 0.74GO/AO; .234 opp. avg; .267 vs. RHP; .212 vs. LHP; .245 with RISP; As a starter: 13 starts, 4-3 with a 2.63 ERA; A very good year for Stefan who really came into his own after being placed in the rotation.  Grade: B+; 2014: Certainly Clearwater, although a wouldnt be surprised by a bump to Reading.

Williamsport

Drew Anderson, 19, Phils 21st round pick in 2012 draft; 15 starts; 6-3 with a 2.00ERA; 76.1IP 58H 20BB 54K; 5HR allowed; 0.98 GO/AO; .214 opp. avg; .207 vs. LH, .220 vs. RH, .194 with RISP; 1.02WHIP; 2.4BB/6.4K per 9; Doesn’t get much better than the line Anderson put up for the Crosscutters this year. Grade: A+; 2014: I wouldn’t be super aggressive with Anderson quite yet. Lets see what he does in 6-8 starts in Lakewood. Prospect Ranking: 39

Mitch Guellar, 19, Phils 1st round pick in 2012 draft; 14 games; 3-8 with a 5.86ERA; 58.1IP 83K 26BB 35K; 4HR allowed; 1.13 GO/AO; .337 opp avg; .379 vs. LH, .311 vs. RH, .310 with RISP; 1.87 WHIP; 4.0BB/5.4K per nine; Guellar was consistently overmatched by NYPL hitters this year and I see no good reason for promotion. Very pedestrian strikeout numbers, and an astronomical WHIP doomed his 2013. Grade: D-; 2014: Extended Spring then Williamsport. A lack of success this year could turn him back into a OF come 2015 and drop him out of the Top 40.. Prospect Ranking: 23

Shane Martin, 22, Phils 9th round pick in 2013 draft; 15 starts; 5-4 with a 3.31ERA; 70.2IP 63H 16BB 44K; 7HR allowed; 1.65 GO/AO; .233 opp. avg; .286 vs. LH, .203 vs. RH, .254 with RISP; 1.12 WHIP; 2.0BB/5.6K per nine; A successful 2013 for Martin who pitched consistently well for WIlliamsport. I would like to see a few more strikeouts. Grade: B+; 2014: Martin is the perfect double bump candidate. CLearwater.

Julio Reyes, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 16 games (12 starts); 3-2 with a 3.14ERA; 63IP 34H 30BB 58K; 3HR allowed; 0.68GO/AO; .160 opp. avg; .217 vs. LH, .116 vs. RH, .250 with RISP; 1.01 WHIP; 4.2BB/8.3K per nine; Reyes was perhaps as dominant as any starter when you look across his entire line.  The numbers against righties are overwhelming.  While I would like to see the walks tick down a bit, 2013 was flat out impressive. Grade: A; 2014: CLearwater

Yacksel Rios, 20, SIgned as a free agent in 2011; 15 games (10 starts); 5-3 with a 3.59ERA; 52.2IP 52H 19BB 39K; 1HR allowed; 0.86GO/AO; .265 opp. avg; .272 vs. LH, .261 vs. RH, .179 with RISP; 1.35WHIP; 3.5BB/6.7K per nine; A solid, consistent effort. Grade: B; 2014: Lakewood

GCL

Ranfi Casimeiro, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 11 starts; 2-6 with a 5.21ERA; 48.1IP 66H 15BB 30K; 1.47 GO/AO; .324 opp. avg; .387 vs. LH, .287 vs. RH, .297 with RISP; 1.68WHIP; 2.8BB/5.6K per 9; This was Casimeiro’s 2nd season in the GCL and he seemed to go backwards this year, getting hit very hard. Grade: D; 2014: GCL if he is still around

Feliberto Sanchez, 2o, SIgned as a free agent in 2011; 12 games (10 starts); 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA; 54.1IP 58H 22BB 33K; 0.54 GO/AO; .279 opp. avg; 1.47WHIP; 3.6BB/5.5K per 9; .333 vs LH, .250 vs. RH, .277 with RISP; Pretty average numbers across the board. Grade: C; 2014: Williamsport

Alejandro Arteaga, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 13 games (12 starts) between GCL and CLearwater; 4-3 with a 3.45ERA; 60IP 63H 11BB 40K; 0.86 GO/AO; .272 opp. avg., 1.23 WHIP; 1.6BB/6.0 K per nine; For GCL: 4-2 with a 3.27ERA in 11 games; Very good year for Arteaga who progressed nicely and showed excellent command.  Grade: B+; 2014: Lakewood is a realistic possibility

Eineiry Garcia, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2012; 9 starts; 1-3 with a 5.15ERA; 36.2IP 43H 14BB 31K; 1.41 GO/AO; .291 opp avg; .258 vs. LH, .299 vs. RH, .288 with RISP; 1.55 WHIP; 3.4BB/7.6K per 9; ; First time state side for Garcia who did an adequate job with his transition. Grade: C; 2014: GCL

Tyler Viza, Soon to be 19, Phils 32nd round pick in 2013 draft; 12 games (6 starts); 1-0 with a 1.41ERA; 32IP 21H 10BB 20K; 1.16GO/AO; .193 opp. avg; 0.98 WHIP; 2.8BB/5.6K per 9; .234 vs. LH, .161 vs. RH, .190 with RISP.  Excellent beginnings for VIza, who signed a bit late.  Grade: A;  2014: Williamsport

28 thoughts on “Report Card, Starting Pitchers, Lower Half”

  1. Given your grade, write-up, and prognosis that he will repeat short season in 2014, I think your ranking for Gueller is overly generous. Just out of curiousity, some of these positional reviews show no ranked players. In some cases I was fairly certain that you would have ranked a guy from the list in your top 40. Deliberate or over-sight on not posting a ranking?

    Like

  2. Just in case anyone was wondering – THIS is a list of crappy prospects. With the possible exception of the injured Mecias, there is no high ceiling player on this list and, don’t get me wrong, I like Mark Leiter and a few of the other names, but, wow, this does not look good.

    Like

    1. I see Watson and Mecias as potential impact arms, both have large flaws (Mecias had TJS and no breaking ball, Watson had shoulder injury and a developing changeup) but they have impact potential. Anderson, Nunez, and Viza are interesting, Gueller is an enigma and the rest is really sad (maybe there is a reliever or two there if you squint hard enough). But I agree with your point that the low minors pitching is not good at all

      Like

      1. Yes, true enough on Watson – I actually have him rated very high. Viza is also interesting. I saw Nunez pitch this year – he’s likely to become a bullpen arm.

        Like

        1. I agree on Nunez, fastball-breaking ball combination. No reason to rush him, let him get some innings, put him in the pen when he struggles.

          The other interesting name who didn’t make the cut is Denton Keyes.

          Like

      2. Scouts do not always evaluate a top prospect’s potential accurately. When the evaluation is based on projection of tools for relatively raw HS players, the evaluation can be decidedly iffy. That’s how we got spectacular failures on primo HS draft picks like Hewitt, Hudson, Greene, and, I guess, Collier in recent years. Gueller is only an enigma if you assume the scouts were correct in how they projected his tools would play as he got some high quality experience. Otherwise, after two pro seasons showing equally little promise, it seems he is less enigma and more just another one of the 50% of primo pick HS guys who quickly prove themselves unworthy of their bonus. There is certainly still some hope for Gueller, but I rank him more on a par with the low-bonus guys like Viza and Anderson (actually a little lower than these two) than as the primo pick, which he was. As a top draft pick, he seems a bust.

        Like

        1. It is not the draft report alone that makes me call Gueller an enigma. The fastball is anywhere from 86 to 93 (but was 94-96 last fall), the curveball has good shape but he does it throw it, he guides it to the plate so batters can pick it up, and the changeup has some potential. He has a better overall arsenal right now than Anderson or Viza, he just has no confidence in using it. Scouts said he looked tired in Williamsport at only half way through the year. I want hear what he looks like in instructs after a short break off for him.

          Like

          1. Its the drop in velocity that alarmed me but I don’t know if its mechanics or injury. He has too much raw talent supposedly to move off the mound yet. As for Watson, he looked very good some starts and supposedly wasn’t allowed to use his curve, his best pitch. I think they’ll start him at LWood to be with his buddy Crawford and then let them grow up together. I agree that this is a pretty sad list but Watson and Gueller are the only high picks here. Viza and Keys could be pleasant surprises.

            Like

  3. Funny how we used to think pitching was the strength of this system. It’s pretty bleak at this point. If we don’t hit on both Biddle and Morgan we’ve got a long wait for any new starting pitcher contributors.

    Like

      1. It’s getting to the point now where MAG really is the big wild card. If he pitches like a legit 2 or 3, we could be pretty good next year. If he pitches like a 5, well, it’s going to be tough, unless somebody else takes a massive and very unexpected leap forward.

        The real question is whether and to what extent the team spends on Halladay. If they want to try him out on a hugely incentive laden contract with a team option for a second year, I’d probably be okay with that. Otherwise, they are just throwing away their money as sad as that is to say.

        Like

    3. I think the chances are high that the Phillies will be picking somewhere in the 10-15 range in next year’s draft, and if they could end up with a top 10 (protected) pick if they have a bad last 10 games of the season. I’m thinking like 3-7 should do it. That will put them in a position to draft a Hamels-caliber pitcher, and apparently the draft is pretty deep with pitching prospects. So I’m thinking we’ll be able to address this deficiency.

      Like

      1. That would be fine so long as they draft the best available player, which is what I think they did this year and what they should always do. Year after year. Pick after pick.

        Like

          2. Absolutely. Let’s say we pick #12. Most of the highly prized guys are gone, but there is still a bit of very legit talent left. If our scouts identify someone who they think is one of the few remaining legit elite talents in the draft, you take him. At that pick, probably no more than a couple guys whom our scouts think truly meet that description. You take the best/surest of those guys. If he’s a SS, so be it. He can be traded, or he can play 2B or 3B in the future. If you pass on the talented guy to get into iffy pick territory, you’ve wasted your primo draft position. We want as close to a sure thing as Crawford was, maybe a little better. A guy who can actually hit, along with running and playing D. No Hewitt reaches.

            Like

  4. What’s the scouting report on Drew Anderson? That’s a pretty impressive line for a teenager, although if I want to be nitpicky I guess I would question the K/9 number.

    Like

    1. Fastball in the 92-94 range, a slider with above average projection, and an underdeveloped changeup. There is plenty of projection and pitchability, and he is young. Definitely someone to keep an eye on, but right now it is more a back end starter profile along the lines of a Jonathan Pettibone (not that getting that in the round they did with Anderson is a bad thing)

      Like

  5. I knew nothing of these guys so thanks so much for the post.
    I was trying to project starting rotations through the minors next year and outside of LHV being overcrowded, I have no idea who is filling out the rest of the spots.

    It makes sense that other than Watson and Gueller, the rest of the guys are either less talented HS guys, overage college guys, or unknown international guys. Really best case for those guys is back of the rotation so even with good performances their value is often muted.

    Gonzalez came out of nowhere. Vargas was in the bullpen. Mecias is hurt. I had no idea Reyes pitched that well. Only Lieter seemed to dominate from the college ranks.

    Like

  6. Why are the best arms coming out of the drafts college arms?
    Do they get three years of super instuctions and get stronger over that period because they jump into college weight rooms with the football guys under specific training programs?

    Like

    1. They go higher than HS arms because they are more developed and safer, and thus more likely to be major league pitchers, though they often come with less upside.. It is also much easier for pitchers to be late bloomers than hitters. Both Verlander and Strasburg were out of shape and throwing in the mid-80s when they got to college, and like many 18 year olds they filled into their body and found velocity. The need for instant results in professional ball would have not allowed either to develop.

      It is not the same with hitters because it is much more about sheer athleticism and teams buy out all the superior athletes out of HS and very few of them slip through, which is why the high upside college hitters can usually be counted on one hand.

      Like

  7. Guellar-

    Where does all the “throws 93,94,95 ” thing come from. Saw him the first game of the short season at State College, and I don’t think he should have been tired by then, he threw at 89 mph almost every time on a non-breaking ball , , but he never got to 90. Looks very professional in approach , however. Reminds of David Buchanan, like that, Buchanan threw at 90 almost every pitch like that. So, maybe, what you get is what you might have got if you signed David Buchanan out of HS. Approach wise, but you get a stockier heavier muscled HS version, so maybe he can build up, some.

    Like

Comments are closed.