The young guys have looked pretty good with the big club, especially Cody Asche. I was out at the game Saturday in DC and he made a tough play and a good throw home with the bases loaded. His defense certainly passes the eye test for now, though if I were to identify a potential problem right now, I’d say he leaves a lot of throws low. Anyone else notice this? Could be just me, and really, better to leave your 1B with a chance to pick a ball than sail one five feet over his head.
BJ Rosenberg touched 96 on the stadium gun that same night, (might have been the same inning), and his off-speed stuff has been working since his most recent recall from AAA. He’s looking like the guy people hoped he might become before injuries slowed him down a few years back. Also, tomorrow is his 28th birthday. So good for him or whatever.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
It is actually a pleasure to watch. now lets clean up the broadcast team
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Asche is gonna be a 3-4 WAR player for the next decade and Franco is going to be our first baseman.
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Franco could be playing LF next in LHV, joining the long list of ‘big-bat, un-fleeted-foot’ leftfielders in Phillie history.
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I don’t know if OF is even on the radar for him. He’s supposedly slower than even Ruf.
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Fanco is extremely slow, underway he might be a 30 runner but it takes about 100 feet to get up to speed. In the OF he would have no range at all, anything past him might be an inside the park HR.
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Better watch him going around the bases, once he gets going he is not as poor as expected. He just gets out of the starting blocks llike he is in sand.
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You love degrading our prospects. We all know he’s slow. Please stop with the grading and just say he’s slow.
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Its also been good watching Hernandez surprisingly play a passable CF and bat leadoff most days as he flirts with 300. He’s battling for a spot on next year’s bench. Asche still reminds me of Utley light which is pretty good. The Phillies will have a good problem if Franco lights up AAA pitching in April and May.
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Still pretty SSS territory but Asche has exceeded my expectations so far. He’s rocking a 32% line drive rate in is striking out about 5% less than he was in AAA. Major league pitchers will still find something to pick at though- maybe sliders that break in off the plate? There’s no question for me that he’s our 3B next season, and I can’t wait to see how he does over a full season.
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How important is it for the Phils offseason to finish this season with a Protected Pick????
Is it wrong to want the Phils (and all the younger guys) to play well but still lose enough to get in the Bottom 10???
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I don’t think it is but I also don’t think there is a FA that will have a QO that alone would put this team back into the WS.
I’d put on all of my eggs in the Garza basket and see what happens with Nelly Cruz if I do get a protected draft pick.
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Nelly isnt getting a qualified offer.
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And Garza wouldn’t cost you a protected pick since he was trade mid season
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I thought that also, but what if the Rangers QO him?
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Then he’ll accept and its a moot point.
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No…not really….an oral handshake agreement, like the one Ruben had with Raul a few years ago. precluded his re-signing with the Phillies, then opening the door for the Phillies to get a supplemental pick when he signed with the Yankees.
If Garza does the same, does it mean the Phillies, if they sign him , lose their first round pick, if they are picking after the 10th or 11th pick–whatever the cutoff is?
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Couple of things:
– He is referring to Cruz accepting
– Garza cannot be tied to draft compensation in any way
– The handshake deal is dead, it worked with Type B FAs because they didn’t cost the signing team anything but got the original team a pick. Now being attached to compensation destroys your market, there is no reason to voluntarily go through that.
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I’m with you there, I see nothing wrong with it
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It only matters if they have there sights set on a Type-A free agent who is offered arbitration in the offseason. Personnally, I fail to see who that player is so, for me, bottom 10 is meaningless.
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I’m starting to have some speculative, but somewhat serious thoughts on whether the Phils could make a move for Tulowitzki. The Rockies would certainly listen to offers considering the financial commitment and the Phils can certainly take on the salary. That’s a pretty good start right there.
I should add a note here; I have zero concern for the position Tulo plays when considering the possibility of a trade and as it applies to Rollins. I don’t consider Tulo’s position to be a factor or influence.
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Steve – I’ve advocated a Tulo move for a while. If we could get Tulo, I’d wave goodby to J.P. Crawford (and several other prospects) and take my chances. He’s a great player.
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The Rockies want position players so any package would certainly start with with Franco. They wouldn’t be able to trade Crawford until midseason though and I’m not sure the Phillies have sufficient other peices to make it happen. Also not sure they’d take on a player that is still owed $130M. Great player though and I like the “outside the box” thinking. I think a trade is a far better option to strengthen the team than overpaying for a FA
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Good point – it would probably cost Franco. The salary is a good thing, becuase it lessens the prospect cost and the Phls can afford the money portion. Win/Win – Rockies get prospects and cut payroll.
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I’m not against trading Franco in the right deal but the 7 years left on Tulo’s contract scares me a bit.
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I don’t disagree mds, but waiting 3-4 years for another playoff team scares me even more. I’m not sure the Phils can even remotely fix their problems through free-agency
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Oh I agree. I think a major trade this offseason for a positon player is the way to go. And I love Tulo. But man that’s a big contract. Still, they are going to have to take a chance (or a couple of chances) somwhere to have success in the near term.
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The Tulo contract is deceptively affordable. Yes, it’s long and it’s big in total dollars, but Tulo is still young (next year is his age 29 season), the contract is only mandatory through age 35, never goes above $20 million per season and goes down to $14 million at age 35 and contains an option for $15 million ($4 million buyout) at age 36. It’s actually a very good contract. The interesting thing about Tulo is just how good he is on defense, which means he’s likely to age well at the position, at least into his early 30s. Yes, he’ll lose time to injury – that’s just Tulo – but if he can average about 130 games a year, and he’s on the field for the postseason, he’s a huge plus.
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Is it a risk? Yes, but one I think a team should take if it doesn’t cost so much in prospects that it ends up being counterproductive. So what would it cost? Think a package of Franco, Hernandez, Morgan, Rosin and Green (or Cozens). I think that’s the kind of return Colorado would want. Would it be worth it? Close call. I might pass if that’s the package because Franco alone might be equivalent to Tulo’s worth in a year or two between performance and costs savings. Just ruminating here.
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That contract is better than I thought. Still I’m balking at having another 20M+ contract. I guess for me it would come down to how much it would cost in terms of prospects. The market for him might not be huge due to the contract which helps. Supposedly the mets are going to jump in with both feet. This one’s a tough call becuase the payoff is potentially huge.
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If you asked me what would be the ideal player for a $20 million contract, I’d say either an ace in his prime or a relatively young power hitting shortstop with good defense – and that’s exactly what Tulowitzki is. He’s the ultimate rare commodity in baseball and if you can get him for a price you can live with, you do it. Period.
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Tulo, when healthy, will give you upwards of 5 years of excellence.
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Not sure what rockies would want but , herdanez, is a starting second basemen, and cheap, revere is another option and is still cheap, biddle or morgan gives them a young lefthand pitcher cheap, with up side, and franco is a top prospect, if that isnt enough then I would move on. like this idea, tulo along with choo and garza puts us back in the race i believe.
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Supposedly due to the unpredicatibility of pitchers in coors field they want upper minors positon players. Franco would have to be in that deal IMO but I’m not sure there is enough else to get it done
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The Rockies desperately need any kind of pitching not position players. I could see a trade involving pitching for position players from any team in MLB.
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Papelbon?
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he’s always hurt
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Jim Callis on his twitter earlier today:
“Middlebrooks. Asche could have higher floor. @wfromans: Who has the bigger upside: Middlebrooks or Asche? #RedSox #Phillies”
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I think that’s what I’d expect. Higher floor with Asche. Higher upside with Middlebrooks, since his ceiling is as a perennial all-star.
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And here all this time I was comping Zach Green with Middlebrooks!
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It’s a compliment to Asche that he’s even being considered in that question.
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Seriously. Those were my thoughts. That’s either a testament to how well Asche has done or how terrible Middlebrooks has done or a combination of both.
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I love the way Asche is playing. I have been talking up his swing since last year and not buying into the lack of power concerns from a corner position. (comparing him to Scott Brosious..spelling?) What I am really suprised with is his fielding. I didn’t think he would be as good as he has played. I love his hustle. Utley light is very accurate.
As far as Diekman and Rosenberg…I have never been impressed with either until now. I credit Sandberg for knwoing what buttons to push and how to use guys and get the most out of them. he seems to have given them much needed confidence that was lacking when Charlie was here.
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Have you ever thought that any young starter was given any respect. They pitched Worley hurt despite an incredible rookie season. etc. Screw over a guy and then call him a flash in the pan. Very old school from the times when there were only a few team and
many good players in the minors.
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Ashe’s power isn’t all that bad. He’s at a pace to hit 21-22 HRs over a 162 game schedule.
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I predicted that, when he hits his peak, he’ll probably be around 18-25 homers – that’s consistent with those projections. Still not clear how much his plate discipline will develop.
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Sorry, enough of my projections/predictions. I realize it annoys some folks and I’m sorry for that. I’m just trying to give people an idea of what I think he will do.
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catch, who would ever have thought that Dom Brown would ever hit close to 30HRs!
Possibly only roccom…(tic)
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Right catch – and it wasn’t all that unreasonable to predict 20-ish homers for Asche. Maybe not next season, but as he’s entering into his arbitration years I would think 18+ is likely. With his swing he only needs to gain marginal strength – again, quite likely.
Plate discipline is the big one and it’s too early to determine how he will evolve in that regard. I for one have a positive outlook
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Very small sample size though. Still, his minor league numbers suggest a 15-17 HR player so it isn’t much of a stretch (especially at CBP) to suggest a 20 HR player.
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Most players hit for more power in the Majors then in the minors.
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I wouldn’t be so sure. Some of them do because of age related physical maturity, but you can’t look at raw power numbers because the major league season is 30 games longer
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Sorry. Let me amend that statement. MOST PROSPECTS who reach the majors before 25/26 will hit for more power in the majors then they did in the Minors.
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+1
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I’ve always wondered if the increase in average fastball velocity from the majors to the minors was a significant factor to the slight uptick in power numbers often seen.
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The ball is harder to hit but will go farther when contact is made.
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Josh Donaldson is sitting at 7.1 fWAR with a .205 ISO, 11% BB and 16.2% K and plus D. Asche isn’t far off on all of these metrics – 9.2 BB%, 20.4 K%, .186 ISO. Asche also just turned 23, an age where Donaldson was still playing in A ball. Asche isnt going to have that kind of defense but he helps make up for it a little with double digit steals.
Kyle Seager is another good comp: 3.8 fWAR with 9.1 BB% 17.2K% and .175 ISO and that’s with negative defense. I’ll be shocked if Asche isn’t at least a 3.5 fWAR player next season unless UZR really hates him.
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Glad many here are beginning to realize just what a gift he is for the franchise. We can watch the climb up his gradual mountain to the height I have predicted along with a few others.
I repeat: in 3 seasons he will be an All-Star. and his offensive numbers would be around 25-30 HRs/season. Along with a good OBA around .360 plus. His fielding is speaking for itself as watchers have noted. with his mentioned Utley-like approach to the game, I see improvement along the way to earn the above status. And he is not a “slug” on the bases, able to give 10 plus SBs, too. A
All in all, an outstanding draft choice. As some here have long suggested, Franco will fit well at 1st base and in the middle of the lineup.
Schmidtty has a better-than-decent guy to be the best there since Mike hung them up. What a relief!
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Ok, I’m big on Asche but we had a near HOF caliber 3rd baseman for 6+ years that you’re forgetting.
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Didn’t I mention Mr. Schmidt above? Read again pls.
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I was talking about Rolen
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He doesn’t, and has never existed.
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OK. IMO, Rolen never attained the superstar player he was thought to be. His hitting never developed into a strong, powerful, high BA and OBA. He did hit plenty of HRs but could never put all his talents gathered together. He certainly was one of the best fielders at the position: a strong, accurate arm with fine ability to scoop ’em up.
He always seemed to be on the cusp of attaining that extraordinary status, but never quite got there.
He seemed to have all the physical tools needed. IMO, part of his failure to attain that grand status was his attitude about the game and came off as eligible for Prima Donna status. His defiant attitude toward the Phillies management sorrowfully gave him a bad rep that he carried with him to St. Louis where he seemed to have some fine years…but they did not renew his contract after it was up.
IMO, Asche will exceed Rolen’s worth when he was here. Begin with the difference in attitude and take it from there. Asche will do better here. He is pleased to be in Philly. Rolen never seemed to like Philly. Developing Asche’s defense should equate his with Rolen’s in due course.
Good discussion.
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Rolen put up around 20 WAR during his time here, I like Asche but that’s not as easy to attain as you think.
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Rolen did have a career .364 OBP and averaged 25 HRs per season. And he was very close to those averages while in Philly. I would be really happy if Asche could do that.
Of course, offense is down league wide so those numbers would be more impressive today than ten years ago, but that’s still pretty good, and his defense was almost unparalleled.
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Playing the Marlins made me start thinking about Yelich. Did someone from the Phillies’ front office not come out and say they would have taken him if he was available, or did I imagine that?
While I was looking for an answer to my question above, I noticed in the 2010 draft thread that a couple people were pretty happy that we didn’t have a chance to draft him, including the noble creator of this website.
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The Phillies wanted Biddle or Yelich in 2010 and would have taken Yelich before Biddle if he was available
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That’s what I thought. Thanks Matt.
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C.H. is nearing the .400 OB mark. Just what this team needs. A winter of outfield work and hope springs eternal.
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Yeah, I’m trying to tell folks that – Cesar is really good. Not a mirage. This guy can flat out play, although he obviously needs to work on some things (includng base running), but I love him as a player. For him to turn himself into a passable centerfielder in about two months is really something to watch. By early next year, he’ll be perfectly fine out there – perhaps even good.
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Not sure if you caught this the other day, but Sandberg says that he wants to see him get work on the leftside of the infield this winter. The knock has always been he been that he doesn’t have the arm to do so, but even if he can just be serviceable enough to eat to play there in a pinch it will go a long way towards a roster spot next year (so long as he continues to improve in CF)
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I am willing to bet he may be a touch better then Ty Wiggy over at third..
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If he could play third too, that would make him a lot more valuable. I don’t see him developing as a shortstop – that position is like catcher, you don’t just show up one year and become a shortstop. I literally can’t remember ANY player who played short in the majors who did not get a decent amount of playing time at the position in the minors. He’s not going to be a shortstop, which means that Freddy Galvis is going to have a job in the long run even if Rollins stays another year or two. I think they want Cesar to play third so they don’t need Frandsen and can replace him with a bigger bat off the bench, which makes sense.
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Yeah, it would have to be 3rd. Without being able to do so he’s just a weird fit on the roster for next year.
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For how good he has looked Baseball Reference has him at a 101 OPS+ through 21 games, which is about an average hitter (pretty decent in CF), the problem is that is fueled by a .393 BABIP, and while his AAA BABIP was .384 that is not sustainable at the major leagues. The problem is that he is striking out in 19% of his ABs and his AAA rate was 18.4%. So now if we take what he has done all year in the majors and minors and put it more a on a Ben Revere .345 BABIP pace he is only hitting .277/.347/.322. Before it was the power and speed now it is the enormous strikeout rate for a guy with little power.
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As I sit here and eat my lunch (a gourmet grilled cheese), I was wondering what Miguel Gonzalez and Luis Encarnacion have been up to since they were signed.
according to the interweb:
Gonzalez, who turns 27 on Sept. 23, will remain a great mystery until next spring. The Phillies have him working with players in the Florida Instructional League this fall, but Proefrock said he was unsure whether Gonzalez will actually pitch in a game.
He will be one of the big stories of the spring. I am looking forward to really seeing if he is a solid #3, or if he is a 4/5 (or worse).
No updates on Encarnacion – I would assume he is in Florida as well.
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Both are in Florida playing in Instructional League
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Matt, any chance of Phillies get in the Tanaka or Guerrero bidding? It would be an adding talent attempt without giving up players.
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I wouldn’t count out Tanaka but I doubt they have the knowledge to submit a winning bid
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I don’t understand your response to the question as I read in MLBRumours that the Japanese League is considering changing the rules to allow more than one team(think a limit of three teams) to bid on the player. The new rules would require that if a team posts a bid they must try to sign the player not merely block another team from signing him.
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I realize that there may be a change in rules coming but until we know what that change is we cannot evaluate against it. Given the current rules of only one team winning the bid I do not trust the Phillies to outsmart the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Cubs, and whatever other front offices are in on Tanaka and deliver a winning bid.
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Hopefully, Gonzalez is the #3 pitcher in our rotation. I like the idea of keeping him a mystery to everyone but the Phillies until Spring Training.
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You know, it occurs to me that people keep talking about bringing in a FA starting pitcher like Josh Johnson. But no one seems to mention Ubaldo Jimenez. I’d give him a look for a spot. He’s young enough that a longer (around 5 years) shouldn’t burn you with age related decline. He’s coming off a good year this season, but his previous three seasons should prevent his contract from becoming too inflated. To top it all off, he might not even cost a draft pick since the Indians are pretty strapped for cash as is. I doubt they can afford ~14M for him with so many arb eligible players on top of their existing contract commitments if he accepted.
If he can be had for 3-4 years (maybe 5) at around 12-13M per, I’d definitely sign him to be a number 3. Lee, Hamels, Jimenez, MAG, Pettibone (trade/non-tender Kendrick to keep costs down) would be a good 1-5 at, what, 67.5M for all of them? It’s not a particularly cheap rotation, but it’s not more expensive than what we’ve had the past few years, either.
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Jimenez’s contract includes an $8mm team option for 2014 which will certainly be picked up
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It became a player option when he was traded
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I believe a mutual option then. Still, good point as he will likely opt out of his end
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I’m not sinking that kind of money or paying that many years for a guy who is so inconsistent and has been a notorious jerk that people dislike. The arm is there – the head . . .. not so much.
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I’m still in a slight state of disbelief that they haven’t moved Dom Brown to right field. The reason, quite obviously, is that they jerked him around so much in the past that they are trying to move heaven and earth not to do it again. The questions, however, are why and at what cost. Brown grew up playing right field – he can slide back there easily – it’s not a big deal for him. The thought that he can’t handle it recalls the Seinfeld episode where George complains about the “delicate genius” of the physical therapist who won’t re-schedule his appointments – it’s preposterous. More bizarre is the fact that they think a former first baseman, who recently converted to the outfield and has all the wrong talents for right field will be better there or is more appropriately placed there. It’s prompts a serious “WTF” reaction. I understand that the Phillies want players to be flexible and play multiple positions if possible and that’s a good thing, but they don’t seem to grasp the concept that the purpose of that exercise is not to put multple players in positions at which they are unlikely to succeed or that play most to their weaknesses. It’s like they really don’t get it sometimes.
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I think you should let it play out for two more weeks.
IMO Dom will start ST in RF.
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I voiced this on a number of occasions as well; DBrown’s profile fits RF a lot better than LF. And DRuf fits LF a lot better than RF. I’m not so sure that the FO is resistant to a move out of concern for jerking him around – I think they’re just clueless
“delicate genius” – pretty funny
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LOL!!!
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Oops – sorry admins. I meant to merely post a link
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Nah – it’s way better in the thread. Just seeing George Costanza makes me laugh.
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Brian Sabean and the Giants may find Darin Ruf an attractive player as a power bat for LF or Ist base. What could be a good trade for both teams?
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Ruf doesn’t hold a whole lot of value for other teams and I’m not sure we would want to trade him even if he did have some value. The best move with respect to Ruf is to have him on the OD roster. At the very least he can get 20 or so starts at 1B and another 20 or so in the OF. Personally I’d like to see him get more than 400+ PAs next season
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They have this guy already there who is two years younger than Ruf http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml
Also the Giants are good scouts, they know Ruf’s limitations.
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I don’t think Belt is a very good comparison at all. Matt, I know you really hate you some Ruf, but come on man.
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Not a power guy like Ruf, but you don’t just displace your 4+ WAR 25 year old incumbent for Darin Ruf
That was the point I was making
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Yes, this I agree with.
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It’s not a comparison, as far as I can tell. They have a better player in Belt, so why would they want Ruf? Belt has also played OF, and they can find a better 1B than Ruf.
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THEY WANT A RIGHTHANDED POWER BAT
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THERE ARE BETTER ONES THAN RUF.
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I actually think Oakland is a better fit for a guy like Ruf. They can DH him, and the A’s love walks and power. perfect fit. although not sure what we would get in return.
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Oakland loves a deal, if Ruf were free they would be in on him, but they can find platoon guys to fill that hole. If you are looking for a team that he fits on (not that they would trade for him) I would look at Baltimore and Cleveland. Unless the Phillies are giving him away the usual suspects that fit the profile won’t be in because they are looking for value and you destroy his value when you give any asset up for him.
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I love what Ruf is doing. Leads the team in OBP and OPS. Sure he KOs too much, but he’s been pretty productive. he gets on base.
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I agree. I certainly don’t think that he is our problem. We have much bigger issues than Ruf IMO.
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I think people are concerned, rightly, that because he Ks so much eventually his OBP and OPS will drop. I mean, they have dropped some already, so if they head much further south he’s not a very valuable player considering his defensive limitations.
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I don’t know how much further they will drop, but they have lowered his value enough he is approaching the area where his offense is not outstripping the defensive issues by enough to make him a regular (essentially he has been slightly below replacement level since early August)
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Yeah the eye test says he has been average at worst. And his defense is adequate
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So he has the best OBP on the team and he doesn’t pass the eye test? What does that say about the rest of the team? Ruf’s OBP is .380 in September. His OPS is .859 in September. That’s not bad at all. I understand he’s a defensive liability aka Pat Burrell., You can hide him in LF when Revere comes back. Ideally he would be the 1st baseman, but no way can you dump Howard’s contract.
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His August OBP was .305. You have to take his entire performance into account if you’re going to evaluate him.
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I agree, but others were pointing to him falling off when his most recent results are very good. He’s at .360 OBP for the year and a 30 HR pace. Works for this team. IMO. I guess they could stay with Mayberry or pick Nix back up. They should have gone through this process last year.
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Where do you get the 30 Home Run pace deal? If you look at the possible AB’s for the average regular player from the beginning of the season as compared to the AB’a of Ruf it is more like a 52 HR pace.
As to the .304 OBP during August , or whatever, It is a fact that quite a few players Don’t even get to a .300 OBP, not for the entire season, or various segments one can cherry-pick out. And what’s the magic about what happens within a calendar month? You c an cherry pick out any segment of time whether within a calendar month or not. Since it is a fact that all players run hot and cold (often influenced by pitchers) picking out a segment to prove a point- they should call that sophistry.
As to simply looking up the WAR and citing that as the be-all and end-all:
i was looking at some WAR numbers the other day, and these are strictly batting WAR numbers (r) they had Ruf at 0.1 and Cole Hamels was at 0.2, So, if you believe a player laying down a few bunts over the course of a season is twice as likely to result in the winning of games than around 14 HR’s in 150 AB’s, then that’s WAR. I think people should realize that WAR is simply the creation of some opinionated fellas that want to uplift players who are the type of players that have a good timed speed running from home plate to 1B, and scurry around the bases and on defense. I believe you could line up the players by WAR and by the timed speed from home to first and they would line up almost exactly, or with a great correlation . That’s all it is.
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Not sure where you get 52; he’s on a 36 HR pace. ((162/63)*14)
As for the rest, no time or inclination to delve too deeply, and besides, I’m less skeptical than some are regarding Ruf. (The “some” appear to include the Phillies, rightly or wrongly. Recent team statements about the need (a) for right handed power in the OF, and (b) the need for better OF defense, don’t seem to augur well for Ruf’s future as a regular corner OF for the team.) But:
(1) The argument that the skeptics are making is that, because of holes in his swing and the extremely high K rate, his current hitting performance is unstable. He will either cut down on his Ks or regress significantly, and the latter is more likely. I am somewhat more optimistic than some on this point, but I don’t really see people engaging this argument.
(2) One doesn’t have to use WAR to conclude that even the current performance level, is decent – probably adequate if sustained – but nothing special. We understand hitting very well; he is currently about xx% better than an average major league hitter. Quite good but not elite. The problem is that, while his defense is better than some feared, it is still well below average. The fact that the Phillies have deployed other defensively challenged players in left field over the years doesn’t negate that. A below average defender who is a good but not elite hitter, playing in left field … is okay. A player with real value, yes, but not an above average regular.
IMO given the lack of other options, IF Ruf’s current hitting can be sustained, making him the regular left fielder is defensible. Certainly better than other internal options., But that isn’t really saying much. His long term (and, given his age, the long term is going tobe fairly short) role is either as an okay regular first baseman, or as a bench/platoon guy.
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Err, 37% that is.
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I got the 52 through a mental calculation a short while back based upon a player who played as a regular getting 750 AB’s and multiplying the HR’s Ruf had at that time in comparison to that proportion of the season versus the 750 AB’s mark. Looking at it a little closer at this point in time, I see that Ruf now has around 221 AB’s and that a regular might not get 750 AB’s, but 663 might be doable. So , I might multiply the 14 current HR’s times 3, which would be 42. But some might not get the full amount , so maybe 37 can be possible for a full season. Even at that , it’s not bad, given that the claim is that steroids are on the wane. A HR is a run right there, while walks, singles, HBP, and other one base things may take as many as 4 other things going right to produce a run.
I had to get the numbers from the mlb.com because BR has Ruf’s stats as just this for 2013 : 64 games played and 0 Plate Appearances.
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I believe, batters 5 thru 9 in the batting order average 3.8 PAs per game I read somewhere.
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You multiplied the ABs instead of PAs, not an insignificant difference 221 (AB) to 258 (PA) right now. In 2013 only 7 players had over 700PAs and all were leadoff hitters. The model if you have him playing every day in a decent lineup is Billy Butler who had 679 PAs over 161 games in 2013.
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Yeah, used AB’s instead of PA’s because it was a ratio of HR’s to opportunities to hit a HR, and I never saw a batter get a HR while drawing a walk or being hit by a pitch.
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I’m not sure where you were seeing Ruf with a 0.1 offensive WAR. He has been over 1 for some time. Those HRs are also offset by all the strikeouts with less than two outs and a runner on third. I agree WAR has it’s limitations, but it is a useful tool in comparing and evaluating players. Also Hamels has swung the bat pretty well this year.
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Baseball Reference has him as a 1.4 WAR offensive player over 63 games (not all of which were starts), so over a 155 game season, you are probably looking at a player who is around a 3.2-3.5 offensive WAR player. To me, this is the likely low end of Ruf’s annualized production. Offensively, I see him as something between a 3-4.5 offensive WAR player over a full season. The issue is how much he gives back on defense, but the man can hit and he finds ways to get a base – which is a really big deal and an even bigger deal on this team. Wally Joyner and Steve Henderson have not yet had an opportunity to convince him that walks are a bad thing.
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To be fair, the WAR range is probably more like 2.5-4.5 over a full year. We don’t know how Ruf will be able to adjust to the way they are going to pitch him once they better learn to exploit his weaknesses. I will say that he does seem to be the kind of guy who can adjust to what they do to him – I’ve been encouraged by that.
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Offensive WAR ONLY. Defensive WAR will cut away at the overall WAR numbers.
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You are right. He’s around a 1.4 oWAR with an overall WAR of between 0.5-0.8 depending on the calculation
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One thing which gets lost in this is the extent to which Ruf probably looks a little better using a numbers approach than the so-called “eye test.” A lot of the skepticism about his hitting is based more on scouting reports/personal observations than the numbers.
What the numbers show – and I agree with others, I have no idea where you’re getting the 0.1 oWAR figure – is very good but not elite hitting, and below average but not horrible defense. I think that’s about what any educated “eye test” is going to conclude as well, based on performance to date. The issue then becomes predictions going forward, and there they “eye test” may be less kind.
To be a bit pedantic about the hitting numbers, both versions of WAR show him currently about 10 runs above AVERAGE as a hitter. That projects out to about 2.8 wins ABOVE AVERAGE, not replacement, over the course of a season. fWAR doesn’t really calculate an “offensive WAR.” rWAR does, and puts him about 1.4 wins above replacement, which would project out to about 3.6 oWAR over a full season. As catch says, defense and positional adjustments cut into that significantly. FWIW, fWAR, which is a little kinder to him, projects him to 2 WAR overall over a full season, an average regular.
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And honestly I wish people critical of WAR – and there ARE legitimate criticisms,* one reason that I tend to use it more for illustration than evaluation – would spend 30 minutes to actually LEARN how it is calculated. The number of misstatements per sentence is the last paragraph of this post is kind of astounding.
When it comes to hitting, the only even arguable criticism of WAR is that it doesn’t take situational performance into account. I do not buy that criticism, for reasons rehashed endlessly, but IF one believes that situational performance should be taken into account, then WAR for some players (especially on a seasonal rather than career basis) is going to be a little off. (Not, with rare exceptions, off by much.) But that aside, the hitting component of WAR is pretty rock solid. We understand hitting VERY well. The specific criticism of WAR above is … how to put this …. it falls apart completely if one has even the most basic understanding of how WAR is calculated. (Note of course that WAR is retrospective, not prospective. WAR isn’t necessarily a good PREDICTIVE tool, but it isn’t meant to be.)
*Just about every component of WAR EXCEPT hitting has at least SOME arguable flaws – defensive metrics probably especially, but there are also arguable problems with positional adjustments, base running, and the calculation of replacement level. IMO for most players those problems are small, and even problematic defensive metrics are probably better than the subjective evaluations of most people, but still there are significant error bands for most player’s WAR totals.
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An regarding the last sentence – not going to spend much of time on this, really any basic understanding of what WAR is trying to accomplish, and/or looking at actual leader boards, is going to refute that comment – but here are two lists, fWAR top ten in batting runs above average, and fWAR top ten overall WAR (position players):
batting runs above average
1 Miguel Cabrera
2 Mike Trout
3 Chris Davis
4 Joey Votto
5 Paul Goldschmidt
6 Andrew McCutchen
7 Shin-Soo Choo
8 Matt Carpenter
9 Josh Donaldson
10 Jayson Werth
WAR
1 Mike Trout
2 Andrew McCutchen
3 Miguel Cabrera
4 Josh Donaldson
5 Chris Davis
6 Carlos Gomez
7 Matt Carpenter
8 Manny Machado
9 Evan Longoria
10 Joey Votto
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His August OPS was still .815. I’ll take that.
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With the lineup extraordinarily bereft of right handed hitters with power, Ruf should have little difficulty making ’14s roster. At least he can platoon vs. lefties and pinch hit. But please don’t allow him to play RF. THAT is scary.
Can they move Dom to RF and hide Ruf in LF? Can he also become Howard’s 1st base caddy vs lefty pitching?
Actually the ideal place for Rup is in the AL as a DH. Could we get something worthwhile back for him from the AL?
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10 Games DH + Vs Lefties at 1b otherwise start in LF. Works for me.
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They should stick with Ruf and see it through. The bigger problem is Howard. Howard’s production since 2009 is similar to Ruf’s, but at a huge increase in cost. Worst case you can platoon Howard and Ruf at 1b. Crazy? Why? Just because you’re stuck with his $25 million doesn’t you sacrifice the team. Last 3 years Howard has a horrific OBP vs lefties somewhere in the 250-260 range.
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I agree. I never understood comments such as, “You cannot platoon Howard given his contract.” Even RAJ is quoted as saying that if Howard is only a platoon piece then he is a very expensive platoon one. Of course that is true but it seems to me that by not trying to maximize production by platooning Howard, the team is compounding a poor financial decision (Howard’s contract), with a poor baseball decision (not platooning him).
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Yes, you’ve captured the essence of their stupidity (or at least this part of their stupidity) in a paragraph. You are entirely correct.
I am also not sold on Ryne Sandberg the manager. His view of Darin Ruf is that he’s really good in the field, but he is concerned with Ruf at the plate – I’m not making this up, it’s essentially what he said. Huh? There’s a reason Chicago didn’t hire Sandberg for the manager’s job – he comes from the Ruben Amaro school of analytics. Sorry, I don’t hate the guy, the players respect him, and I think he does want to play the younger guys and grow them – which is all good – but I’m very concerned about him as a person whose job it is to maximize talent and results over 162 games. He’s part of the Phillies “blast from the past” mentality when it comes to baseball analysis. An old school guy. Same old, same old. I’m sick of it.
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Well, to be fair, there are a number of reasons to be concerned with Ruf at the plate.
But I agree with your skepticism regarding Sandberg…
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Yes, there are reasons to be concerend with Ruf at the plate, but, I think, more reasons to be encouraged. But to be satisfied with him as a fielder and a right fielder no less – that means that this guy just is completely divorced from statistical analysis. That being said, yes, Ruf has come a long way as a fielder this year and would project much better in left field, but, long run, unless he’s at first, the fielding is likely going to be what holds him back, not his bat, which is his ticket to paradise.
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Catch with all do respect I think you are wrong on so many levels. Don’t look now but in the month of Sept we are 5th in OBP and 11th in walks coming off an August where we were dead last in OBP and 26th in BB.
And your comment to say Joyner/Hendu haven’t got to Ruf yet to convince him BB are no good is darn near slander. Have you ever sat with Joyner and Hendu to talk about their philosophy on hitting? Joyner had a +10% BB rate for his career and Hendu darn near 10%.
Baseball is a fairly simple game. I think Ryne knows quite well how its played, who can play and who cannot. I don’t think he needs to openly acknowledge advanced stats to defend his position in the game.
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DMAR, Ruf is starting to hit the outside pitches to Right Field so it sounds like he is listening to the hitting coaches. Ruf had some nice hits to RF in this Marlin’s series.
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As is Chase…
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To be fair – defensive metrics are also pretty flawed.
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I’m not endorsing Catch’s overall position here (I’m agnostic at this point regarding Sandberg), but on defense the defensive metrics are just confirming what the eyes are seeing.
That said, one does have to assume that Sandberg is grading on a curve in talking about Ruf’s defense. I think it’s fair to say that, given his tools and inexperience in the OF, he is doing quite well.
Other comments by Sandberg about other players over the past couple of years IMO if taken literally are quite questionable. Both negative and positive comments. The hope (and it’s a reasonable hope) is that the comments are motivational rather than literal.
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I’m not saying Ruf is good in right, he isn’t, but considering that he never played the position – he’s holding his own. Isn’t that basically what Sandberg said?
Also, doesn’t UZR need about 3 years before it becomes accurate? That’s the flawed metric I was referring to.
Do you have examples of comments made by Sandberg? I never thought he made any comments that were really controversial to a saber/advanced metric type person. I could be mistaken though.
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I don’t know exactly what Larry and Catch are referring to but two that come to mind are his comments the other week that Howard “still gets RBIs even when he’s not hitting the ball well” (paraphrasing) and how he “still would have gotten us 90 rbis” this season, in addiitona to other comments about Howard’s likely production next year. Though he does appear to value walks more than Amaro so at least that’s encouraging.
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He might well have gotten 90 RBI had he played the whole season and Revere stayed healthy. Of course, for a cleanup hitter 1B with no other tools, that’s actually pretty shitty, especially when combined with reduced obp leading to fewer runs scored and more outs. It takes me back to the bad old days when people looked at Brogna’s RBIs and scooped throws to 1B and concluded he was a great player. If you want to grade players by just RBIs, which is awfully stupid, then you also have to acknowledge that vintage Ryan Howard was good for 136 to 149 RBI and 96 to 105 runs scored a season. Viewed in that context, 90 RBIs is meh. Since Howard did improve from 2012 to 2013 and was still hurting in 2013, I think he can be good for a .900 OPS next season, if he only bats against RHP. That’s quite good. The thing with Howard is that he just can’t hit lefties at all and the team needs to accept that and platoon him.
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Agreed.
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I don’t think we’re really disagreeing. Yes, the sample size for his defensive metrics is low, but it just happens to coincide with what I think most people’s subjective observations. If there was a disparity, I would be cautious in using the defensive metrics to contradict people’s subjective impressions, but there isn’t really a disparity.
The comments were not IMO particularly offensive to advanced stat types, but offensive to any understanding of baseball. And, hence, IMO, much more likely to be more motivational than meant seriously. The one in particular that stands out – and I am blanking on which player he was talking about or precisely what the quote was – but it was an outrageously unrealistic comp that he made last year regarding one of his players in AAA. Again, I assume meant motivationally rather than literally.
The quotes about Howard are also concerning, but I would argue not JUST from an analytic perspective. I think at this point there’s no framework, modern statistical or traditional,, which sees Howard’s performance last year or this year, as even borderline adequate. But put yourself in Sandberg’s shoes – what’s he supposed to say about a player who still has 3 years and 85 million dollars to go on his contract?
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LarryM …August 2012, Ryno mentioned that Tyler Cloyd, after a great 2012 season, reminded him of Greg Maddux.
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In this case, for example, one assumes that Sandberg knows darn well that Ruf’s value derives from his hitting rather than his defense. but he may feel, reasonably, despite that fact, that he is doing everything he can defensively given his inherent limitations (with any additional improvement a matter of added experience), but he has things to work on as a hitter. Hence his comments.
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Yup – context is everything. All of that is possible. I am just frustrated with some of the things I’ve seen.
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I feel your frustration but what these guys say in public can for the most part be taken with a grain of salt. Is my opinion. I don’t think we ever get to know what these guys really believe in what they say. I think its more important to see what they do. I mean what purpose does it serve to tear Howard down in public statements.
My position on RAJ’s famous walks comment was always that he didn’t really believe that. I think conversely he totally agreed with it and was frustrated with his manager not agreeing with it. I don’t think it served any purpose for him to publicly undermine his manager with a counter argument but again if you look at his move to bring in two hitting coach’s that believe whole heartedly in taking walks a reasonable person would draw the conclusion from the action and not the words on what he really believed.
And I am not making an elevated argument on Ruf’s behalf. I’m pushing back as Larry would say on any argument that says RAJ, Ryne, Joyner and Henderson don’t believe in the value of a more disciplined approach and taking walks as this team moves forward.
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DMAR,
I tend to give most of these guys the benefit of the doubt. Amaro not so much, not because of one quote, but because of an accumulation of quotes and personnel decisions.
That said, I do think that we – and I include myself – sometimes get carried away a bit on our rhetoric. I doubt that Amaro doesn’t think BB have value. The problem is more subtle but has a disproportionate effect on the bottom line. Part of it is what seems to be a system wide overemphasis on an aggressive approach. We’ve had this discussion before, and I’ll happily admit it is not an entirely black and white issue. And not the issue that I want to focus on at the moment.
The issue is this, and it is essentially an economic one, simple supply and demand. Let us assume that (over simplified model, but bear with me) Amaro undervalues BB rate by a meager 5%, and the other GMs value it properly. What would be the result on the trade and Free agent markets? He would end up with a bunch of players with low (or, at best, mediocre) BB rates. The effect on the bottom line would be much larger than the relatively small amount which he underestimates the value of walks. It’s easy to see why – if he is the only guy underestimating BB, even if only by a little, then he ends up with exclusively low BB players, because he will ALWAYS be outbid for the high (and even moderate) BB players.
Now, the real world is somewhat different. Amaro is not the only GM who undervalues BB. But IMO, if one looks empirically at the Phillies trade acquisitions and FA signings, my crude model looks pretty accurate. And again it’s easy to see why. A guy like Choo for example (not that the Phillies should give up the number one pick for him anyway). I’m sure Amaro likes him, and doesn’t dismiss the value of those BB. But some GM out there – a more analytically inclined GM most likely – is going to value those BB more highly, and consequently out bid the Phillies.
I don’t think Amaro undervalues BB by a lot. Just enough to insure that he’ll always get outbid on any FA or trade candidate who has a good BB rate.
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. . and possibly overestimate the market of players with lesser BB rates
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Sandberg’s record is 18-13 and the Phillies look much better especially at home. They are playing with much more energy than before his hiring. He is allowing the young players to develop and get meaningful game experience and it has benefitted Asche, DeFratus, Diekman, Galvis, Hernandez, Rosenberg and Ruf. The future is looking better and next year should be interesting.
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I think sandberg looks to have done a fine job in an extremely small sample size but I’m not sure how much credit to give him. Yeah they are 18-13 which is pretty much their exact winning % over the final two months of last season. It does appear like they are playing with more energy (though that’s purely subjective) but you would expect that with a team full of young players getting their first (or second) taste of the big leagues knowing that they are on trial for next year’s roster.
Now, does he deserve credit for using the young BP and playing Hernandez, Asche and Galvis? Again, I am not sure. Amaro sets the roster and I’m not sure what choice sandberg has based on that roster. Plus we don’t know what orders Sandberg is under now that their is nothing to play for. The one thing I think we can certainly credit to Sandberg is that he seems to have finally gotten through to Rollins (both in terms of effort and approach).
Now I’m not near as skeptical as Catch but I am far from ready to annoint him as the next manager (and I know you didn’t advocate that either). I just want a league wide search with them going after the best possible candidate.
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And neither am I. The fact is managing a bunch of guys under 0 pressure to win anything yields very little in evaluation. It’s low leverage. Great managers are found in tight playoff races and the LCS.
I also don’t see any scenario where they interview outside for the position. Ryne was hand picked to succeed Charlie. The indicator in how much they believe in him will be the length of his deal. Only time will tell if he can do the job.
At worst he is care taker to a young roster and with Utley at his side for the next few years he may have a shot at something more.
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‘The fact is managing a bunch of guys under 0 pressure to win anything yields very little in evaluation’ – some of them are fighting for jobs for next year with a new manager to impress. Maybe you feel that there is nothing there to evaluate, but they wnat to have a gppd resume formulated to be evaluated on.
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Better check how many .500 teams or better they have played vs less then .500
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Forget records talk about who they played that was actually competing for a playoff spot? And not a team that had it locked up.
Anyway it wasn’t meant to be a slight to Ryne. Just a point that wins and losses would have little to do with the evaluation. More so would be how they played and hustled. All moot now as the deal was announced yesterday.
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Franco says yesterday, he is coming into spring training next year looking to make the team in any position available, even if it is L.
Then better get the Bull, Pat the Bat, Raul and Pete Inky signed up as his outfield instructors.
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L=LF
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Good article from Matt Gelb with respect to Halladay’s velocity (btw, I seem to like Gelb a little bit more with each season). This is at least the third article in the past week or so that caused me puzzlement after reading Halladay’s comments. Let me say first that ‘m a huge Halladay phan. He’ll easily go down as one of my favorite Phillies to watch. Great guy, great competitor. But the comments last week about being happy just to be on the mound, and now more recently about being honest to himself and part of this honesty apparently disregards stats. I’m sure this is a weird spot for him to be in and I suspect it’s difficult for him to articulate his frustrations or feelings – but I hope he’s honest with himself that he’s not going to be a successful pitcher again without a return of velocity. I think he can be a serviceable 3 if he can get back to 91-ish, but 87-88? Not a chance
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Roy-Halladays-velocity-dips-even-lower.html
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Phillies will have to make a decision whether or not to offer him or not. Do not see any team offering more then a two-year contract, and would suspect he will get loads of one-year offerings.
His velo probably will tick up a little with his off-season program. But come Aug/Sep 2014 will it again tail-off?
Too many questions.
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I’m thinking the best thing the Phils can do is to let a market first develop for him. There so much risk there, but I’m most concerned that the Phils will keep throwing him out there every 5th day even if the velocity doesn’t return.
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It’s really as much getting excellent command as needing to greatly increase velocity. If he can command all his pitches and has movement on them, then he can get by with less than 91 velocity. Jamie Moyer certainly did and Halladay is as much a pitcher as Jamie. He needs more velocity than he has now and likely will add a little as he strengthens over the off-season and regains confidence in the health of his shoulder. He can get by with 88-89 mph.
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allentown – I actually removed part of my post where I anticipated comparisons to Moyer. Funny you immediately reference him. I think it’s a fair reference in some respects, but I keep coming back to the fact that Moyer pitched on the low-side of the gun his entire career. It won’t be so easy for Halladay and I’d maintain that he won’t have success unless a good part of his velocity returns
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Like most others on here, I am a Halladay fan. I hope he proves me wrong, but I see him as a #5, MAYBE a 4 is his upside. Take his name off his back, and just looking at him today, and I think the comparisons would be to a Kendrick / Cloyd type pitcher, not a #3.
Now, give him an off-season to train, and perhaps he can make me eat my words. But, you just don’t see many pitchers who have shoulder surgery get back to prior forms, let alone a pitcher who will be approaching 37 when next season starts.
You also wonder what is going through Halladay’s mind. From the sound clips, it sounds like he wants to come back. But, you have to think that the WS ring is what would be driving him at this point, and certainly the Phillies would be a long shot in 2014.
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I’m not sure Halladay will draw the interest of any World Series contenders. Command certainly plays a role but the reduced velocity is by far the greater concern. I’d sign Josh Johnson for any role we may consider for Halladay. I guess the best case scenario is that Halladay can show returned velocity before we (or he) needs to make a decision. But in what venue will he get that chance? It isn’t coming in his next start.
It’s almost tragic how this story has developed – good luck Doc
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C. Hernandez is now hitting .333 – Is there a way to play both Hernandez and Revere everyday next season? The team has to make room for good players. Galvis is not going to outhit Rollins, but can Hernandez play SS to force a Rollins trade? Most likely after he breaks the Phillies all-time hit record.
I like the idea of Franco forcing his way on the team in spring training. Perhaps it forces another trade. Unlikely given the skepticism around his swing. The options are suddenly looking good with Asche, Hernandez, Ruf, Revere, and Franco.
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No, Hernandez cannot be an everyday SS. The Phillies are hoping he can learn to play it well enough to check off that box as a utility IF, but even that much isn’t certain.
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He also has a .419 BABIP. He’s doing a nice job so far and I like him as a prospect, but he’s still got very few PAs. He hasn’t shown enough that we need to make him an everyday player next year.
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To be fair, .419 is very high, but I think he has a career like .380…. so it isn’t that far off his mark. He’s pretty damn fast and it inflates his BABIP.
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First of all, his career mark is nowhere near .380. But even if it was, that’s just not sustainable in the major leagues. His speed, and possibly swing, may indeed support a higher than average babip, but no one, even players much faster than he who are line drive machines, sustains a .380 babip. Even an extraordinarily high .340 babip would support a BA more in the neighborhood of .280 given his contact rate.* He is not going to be a .300 hitter over the long term, barring an improbable dramatic improvement in his contact rate.
Basically, his BA to date in the major leagues means nothing. Whatever virtues Hernandez has as a player – and, again, he COULD be a regular, but only if his defense is elite (and it has looked fine but not elite so far the majors), or if he takes a significant step forward as a hitter (more power and/or lower K rate). Both of those are possible, but his most likely major league outcome remains a bench role.
That said, and assuming that the Phillies are granted another option year for him, in 2014 he should be in AAA rather than on the major league bench, as he needs playing time to further develop his skills if he is ever to be a serious candidate for a role as a major league regular.
*For the record, I DO think a .340 BABIP is possible; his SSS line drive rate is quite good, he does get a somewhat above average number of IF hits, again SSS – but what people need to realize is that a .340 BABIP, while certainly possible, would be an extraordinarily good outcome. Only 22 players over the past 14 years, given at least 1500 PA, have sustained a .340 major league BABIP. No one is within 15 points of .380, and only 4 players over .350.
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So you see perhaps a normal .320/.325 BABIP for him?
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.320 or .325 isn’t “normal,” it’s above average (average is .300). If you asked me to make a prediction, yes that would be the range,. It wouldn’t shock me to see him even higher than that – though again, nowhere near .380. But (here’s the rub) neither would it shock me to see him lower. D. Brown in the minors was well over .330; in the majors, .278. (Granted that is not typical.)
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Phillies Sequentially By The Numbers:
OBP H
2010 .332 1451
2011 .323 1409
2012 .317 1414
2013 .308 1281 (to date)
2014 .302 1368 (forecast)
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It looks like Ryne Sandberg will have his interim label removed today as the Phillies will make that announcement around 12:30 today that he will sign a three year contract according to Mlbrumours. Congratulations Ryne!
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Meant “Interim Manager”, sorry about that.
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Nice to see the Phillies moving in the right direction. Would like to see a solidly played 2-5 this week which would probably land us the 10th pick in next year’s FYPD. It need not be ugly, just effective. Halladay twice, Miner twice, Cloyd once; hell, there’s five losses right there. Then again, with three in Miami, then four in Atlanta who is sure to rest regulars in the waning days, perhaps in won’t be so easy to lose pretty.
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So finishing in the top ten of the draft, ensures the Phillies do not lose that pick if they sign a qualified offerd FA.
How does this FA crop look this year?
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They won’t lose their 1st rd pick, I believe the 2nd rd one is still exposed if you sign a FA who received and rejected a QO
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Yes understand, a 2014 top ten pick has to be an impact player for them.
The 2nd rounder is more then likely somewhere around the 40th overall pick, so thats not as critical in the loss.
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FA crop looks thin. Last year I was in favor of a big signing, even losing the pick. (Of course in retrospect, given Crawford’s performance, I’m glad they didn’t sign anyone. Though contrary to popular opinion, the guy I wanted has been worth his contract, and a player without whom his team would not be going to the post season.)
Now I’m not so sure even without losing the (first round) pick. that they should sign anyone (except for maybe a couple of low priced signings). McCann makes some sense, but Boston or New York will overpay for him. Choo is another guy that is just worth more for a contending team than for the Phillies. After those two guys, the market for position players gets very thin. (I’m assuming Cano resigns with New York), and none of the top starting pitchers excite me.
Why the change in my opinion? Last year it looked like a big FA signing might push the team back to contender status, if only for a year or two. I thought the pick was an acceptable price to pay for that, especially with a big corner OF hole. Now I doubt that a FA sign will bring them back to contention. I do think the team will be better next year, around .500, even without big moves. But there aren’t any free agents on the market who will propel an otherwise .500 team to the post season. Also, as I said, the FA market is a little worse this year.
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LarryM – you didn’t address pitchers. Are they any…without arm issues ie Josh Johnson, Roy H. et al? Perhaps a solid 3 or 4.
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Santana can fill a 4 though I liked him a lot more at last year’s price than I will at this year’s
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That was me.
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I’m not a huge Garza fan but as the top RHP available he makes some sense for the Phils. Choo makes some sense, and even Pence and ESantana to some degree. No one in that list figures to make a huge impact but I’d still rather enter the off-season without the possibility of losing a 1st rd pick
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IMO, Garza would compete with MAG for the 3rd or 4th spot in the rotation, if they pursued him.
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Off the beaten track a bit, but David Murphy reports on final attendance.
Final attendance ‘The Phillies saw their attendance drop by more than a half-million fans over last year, drawing 3,012,403 on the season, their lowest total since 2006, when they drew 2,701,815. They drew 44,398 yesterday in their home finale, the sixth sellout of the season. The Phillies entered yesterday with the fourth highest home attendance in the National League. It is the first time since 2009 that they will not finish in first place.’
….500K fall off.
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Unless they get off to a very decent start next year, next year’s attendance numbers will be WAY down. They kept up attendance for much of this year on preseason ticket sales. It was easy to sell 2012 as an aberration. That won’t happen next year. But I view this as a qualifed good thing. It means that Philadelphians are quality conscious and are responsive in this way in their ticket purchasing decisions. Simply put – if they’re good people come in droves. If they’re bad, attendance will be much worse. This is good because it indirectly puts Amaro under the magnifying glass. If they are bad next year or even lag around .500, they are almost forced to fire Amaro. So that’s good. The concern: they would hire another good “baseball man” just like Amaro. Not so good.
Damn, sometimes I wish the Phillies’ management owned the Eagles (tradition actually works pretty well in football, within certain perameters – it’s not enitrely a coincidence that the old regimes of the Packers, Steelers and Giants have been successful) and the Eagles’ management owned the Phillies (for baseball, I want the smarted guy in the room, on the cutting edge, looking to a get a big statistical advantage). Well, it’s Philadelphia, so whatever you want is kind of the opposite of what you get. I’ve grown used to it since I’ve lived here, but I don’t have to like it.
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You’re depressing me
😉
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Yeah, tell me about it.
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The Grateful Dead – – – – keeping aging veterans Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee. Also go into 2014 with Carlos Ruiz still at catcher, and perhaps also with Roy Halladay.
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Cliff Lee will have more value next summer than he did this past one. I’m glad he’s still around
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Sandberg on Cesar:
“One of his strengths is that he’s a plus-bat,” Sandberg said. “He has an ability to hit a fastball and adjust to other pitches. There’s been games he’s played here, facing pitchers he hasn’t seen before, and he makes adjustments as the game goes on. We’ve seen his ability to hit the fastball, but I’ve seen him geared for the fastball and adjust to something else and still put the bat on the ball. He adjusts to what he sees. “His bat plays, right now, on a regular basis.”
……..would Ruben actually consider trading Ben Revere!
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