General Discussion – Week of 9-9-2013

Weekly Discussion

We still haven’t seen Cam Rupp. Wonder if that’s coming tonight with Tyler Cloyd on the hill. Also yet to see action is the bullpen version of Ethan Martin. I’m certainly interested in both events, whenever they come.

Discuss.

125 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 9-9-2013”

  1. Martin was warming up the other day when Rosenberg finished out the game. If I had the time, which I don’t 🙂 it would be interesting to see if Martin’s walks were more as he tired (ala, later innings) or spread equally. The real killer for me for almost all the bullpen guys has been their innate ability to seemingly walk the first batter they face every single outing. My gut says it’s not EVERY outing, but it sure seems that way. That said it seemed every other bullpen was rolling out relievers throwing 94-97 and not with Rosenberg, Diekman and Martin we can start to do the same.

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  2. Here is a question for the stat geeks among us.

    The Hernandez discussion made me want to write a post about WAR – not using it as a definitive measure of value, but using it as a tool to THINK about value. And I decided to look specifically at second basemen, using fWAR. I was going to talk about what an average second baseman looks like.

    But in looking at the numbers for 2013, I found a really odd discrepancy which I could not explain. Totaling up the components of WAR, before the step of converting runs to wins. Manually adding up the runs above replacement for second basemen collectively (using the five components, hitting, base running, defense replacement level, position), I came up with 424 runs. But the figure listed by Fangraphs is 490 runs. On a per team basis, that is a little over 20 runs discrepancy, or a little more than .2 WAR. I don’t really get how they reconcile that. Anybody with any idea?

    (As a side note, using their figures, average WAR for a team is 1.75 WAR. But that includes bench players in addition to regulars. If you restricted it to regulars, that would be right about 2 WAR for an average regular. But still a ..24 WAR discrepancy from manual calculation.)

    (The exercise probably made me a TAD more optimistic about Hernandez, but only in the sense that I think the possibility that he COULD be a solid regular with further development is a little stronger than I thought. I think his current skill set is more of a bench guy, but if he develops along the lines that Catch hopes, he could certainly be more than that.)

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  3. I also want to talk a bit about the relevance of lack of power in a prospect for projecting his future. As with a lot of topics, I think sometimes people’s thinking tends to be overly binary, power guys versus non-power guys. But lack of power IMO starts becoming really problematic when ISO gets below ..100. Looking at this season only, there were only 14 major league players who have enough PA to qualify for the batting title who have sub .100 ISOs. And only 3 of those players have over 2 WAR.

    Andrus – SS who is superb defensively and as a base runner.
    Scutaro – SS, now mediocre defensively and as a base runner, but who combines fantastic plate discipline and elite contact skills.
    A. Ramirez – SS who has plus defensive, contact and base running skills.

    Point it, it is hard to succeed as a major league regular with a sub .100 ISO. Not impossible, but hard.

    Which is why I think the best “optimistic” case for Hernandez has him nudging his ISO into the .120 to .140 range. Which could happen. This is not meant to be another negative post on Hernandez; as I’ve said, the discussion has somewhat moved my opinion in an optimistic direction as to his ceiling.

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    2. I think it comes down more to lineup composition as much as looking at a players value in a vacuum. In the Phils case it would be hard to have both Revere and Hernandez in the lineup at the same time as both provide very little power and low ISO, but add value on the base paths. IMO you can have one player like this easily, and actually probably want at least one guy that doesn’t really have power, but can cause havac on the base paths. (on another note, I do believe that having a guy who is threat to run on any pitch adds value beyond the numbers) but adding a second means that the rest of your line up better have some power at multiple positions. I don’t think the Phils have that type of lineup. That doesn’t mean that Hernandez can’t be a valuable regular, it just has to be in the right circumstances. Again as it relates to the phils, with Chase re-signed it probably means that both Revere and Hernandez won’t be in the line up together often, which is a good thing.

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      1. Chase will obviously be the starting 2B if he’s healthy and we can probaly expect about 120 games from him. I expect about the same from Jimmy. I think Galvis and Cesar will make next year’s team on the bench although both have the potential to start in a few years or upon injury. I’m hoping Mayberry will be replaced by someone like Morse who can play RF and 1B and will improve the bench considerably and then you have a 5th OF type like Bernadino fighting with Frandsen for a spot. Cesar coul dplay some 2B and some CF and its not impossible for Revere to slide over and play some LF with that weak arm if they let Dom play RF or sit. You want more options than they had and they would then have that. Whether they resign Chooch or not will be interesting and whether they’ll pursue Garza hard after signing the Cuban kid will be interesting also. They’ll have the money if they avoid Doc which I hope they do (he’s done). As for Cesar, I love him being on the team.

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      2. Not really disagreeing with you, but I do think the current versions of WAR do a good job of capturing the value of a disruptive base runner. But this type of player also needs to have plus on base skills to be valuable (plus defensive skills help as well.) It may seem somewhat counter intuitive, but players with that little power also usually have a hard time putting up good on base percentages. Here’s an interesting fact – 2013, highest OBP by a sub .100 ISO player: Scutaro at .353. That’s the 39th best OBP in the league. All 38 players with higher OBP have an ISO over .100, most substantially over .100. (As a side note, referring back to earlier comments, the most successful sub .100 ISO hitters tend to have exceptional contact skills, as does Revere.)

        That said, once you get into the .120 to .140 ISO range, things change a lot. Plenty of effective hitters (and high OBP) in that range.

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        1. Maybe another way of putting this … if you want to be very optimistic about Hernandez, the comp you’re probably looking for is Howie Kendrick, not Altuve. Now, I’m not making the comp; just saying that, if he does develop into a better than average regular, IMO that’s the profile he would end up with.

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          1. Yes, that’s about right, with a worse batting average and probably worse power, but better on base skills. Very similar. But Kendrick’s not alone, there are players like that every generaiton. Even a moderate growth in power numbers make the player much more valuable, as has happened with many mild hitting middle infielders.

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          2. Catch, on a more positive note, on BA specifically, Kendrick is very much what an optimist would want to see from Hernandez. He’s a mediocre contact guy, without that much power (2011 excepted), who has maintained a .293 BA because of a very robust .341 BABIP. So he’s an example of why I might be a little on the pessimistic side regarding his BA.

            Do I think that’s likely? No. But within the realm of the possible.

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        2. I wouldn’t call Hernandez a disruptive base runner. He is not a constant threat to steal. He picks his spots and uses a lot of delayed steals. He’s a smart base runner and a guy who can pick up some steals at a decent steal rate, but I seriously doubt he can be a big stolen base guy in the bigs.

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          1. Agree. I wasn’t clear, but that was more a response to Steve’s point, and generically about that “type” of player, as opposed to Hernandez specifically. But it does feed into my Kendrick comment. Now, yes, I know Kendrick has 30 pounds on Hernandez – I just think he’s more likely to show a little more power than to cut his K rate in half and steal 50 bases in a season..

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            1. I agree with both of you and I was really more talking about revere being disruptive on the base paths. My personal opinion is that there is more psychology to baseball then most sports and that it doesn’t always show up in the numbers. I, unlike most, put stock in clutch numbers. The brain works differently with different people when specific stressers are applied and some can handle it and start to focus more or “bear down” and some don’t. Call it fight or flight. It can be applied to a disruptive base runner, even more so then just what his success rate or really any stat, because it isn’t really quantifiable. I am not saying that hernandez is one of those and don’t really know if you can have both him and Revere in the same lineup, but I think that if I had to choose one it would probably be Revere.

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            2. Regarding clutch, IMO the logical response to your argument (as opposed to the empirical response, which also exists) is that … you’re not wrong, except that the process of becoming a major league baseball player weeds out those players who don’t hold up well under pressure. The only “clutch” distinction that exists among major league ball players is the rare player who is (effectively) “clutch” not because he is particularly good under pressure, but because he dogs it in non “clutch” situations.

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            3. To expand upon that a bit …

              There is a coherent logical theory of why their “should” be clutch ability (yours). There is a coherent logical theory why there should not be clutch ability (mine – more accurately, that, to the extent there is such a thing as clutch ability, every major league player has it).

              How do we decide which is true? There isn’t absolute proof to a certainty, but the empirics support my theory. That is, many studies have shown that, while there are variations in clutch “performance,” (a) one year’s clutch performance is not predictive of future season’s clutch performance, and, most importantly, (b) teh pattern of clutch “performance” that we see is rather precisely what we would expect to see if there was no such thing as clutch ability. That is, it is what one would see if clutch “performance” was totally random.

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            4. It makes sense that there be some ‘clutch’. There is certainly your case of the guy that dogs it in nonessential situations. One would expect pitchers to not really try all that hard in many situations. Beyond that, I think it is unlikely that all major leaguers have learned to react well in pressure situations. We have seen with our own pitchers over the years that some just don’t do all that well after an error, HR, walked a guy they didn’t think was actually a walk, mad at themselves for walking a couple of guys. When these things happen, and a pitcher is less than his best mentally, is also when it is likely that there is a runner(s) in scoring position and also that it is a somewhat key situation in the game. We know there are runners on base, because the error, walk, etc. is what got the pitcher upset in the first place (right after a HR being the exception). It is more likely to be in a fairly key game situation, because that in itself is likely to increase the pitcher’s stress. Things have gone wrong, and for some pitchers, that is simply a recipe for more things going wrong. You say major league pitchers aren’t like this, but undeniably some are and beyond that, many pitchers are just marginal major leaguers, or minor league guys brought up to fill in for a pitcher who is injured or not doing well. So, in that situation: let’s say the pitcher got two outs and then an error and then walked two, so the bases are loaded — what does a hitter need to do to be clutch? He probably just needs to always perform at his normal level and take advantage. of the pitcher’s problems. Some guys can do that — wait for their pitch, and the pitcher is likely to throw a fat one somewhere in the at bat, and then nail it. The guy who is not clutch is too anxious and more of a guesser than the other guy. He just can’t wait for his pitch. He’s sure the pitcher ‘has to’ groove a fastball to get ahead in the count. So… the pitcher changes things up and throws off speed, still can’t control the pitch, and it hits the dirt 6 inches outside and ahead of the plate, but our anxious batter has already started his swing. We have certainly seen Phillies hitters hit like this in this sort of situation.

              So, to be clutch, all a guy has to do is have steady nerves and keep his head, while others around him are losing theirs. And it helps to have good pitch type/location recognition skills and the bat speed necessary to not sell out on the FB, before you have a chance to observe that it really is a FB.

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            5. I think some of that is an illusion created by the natural tendency of people to fit a narrative onto random facts – and the rest of it real, but such player either get over it, or they won’t have a significant major league career. So if you want to say that (at any given time) 98% of all players (roughly) perform well under pressure, maybe that’s more accurate.

              I also think that it is significant — and perceptive of you – that you use pitchers for an example. I think that pitchers, who are (when pitching) involved in every play, do (occasionally) exhibit this loss of composure. And I do think there are some pitchers that “fall apart” under pressure. Most of them never make the majors. The few that do, don’t stay there long. Regardless, the same dynamic doesn’t apply (or apply with nearly the same force) to position players who have a significant period between of time at bats and (usually) between plays in the field.

              And then it all comes back to the empirics. The studies don’t entirely rule out some small clutch effects among some players (which is what I’m admitting is possible), but they definitely rule out large effects among many players. The statistical pattern of clutch “performances” would be very different if there were large differences in clutch ability among most players.

              Moreover, what you are describing (and again, I see some reality there) is kind of the opposite of what people usually mean by “clutch.” They mean players who “up their game” in clutch situations, and there isn’t really any logic which supports that, except the (IMO very rare) case of a player who dogs it in non-clutch situations.* What you’re talking about is more players who perform poorly in clutch situations. But, again, the evidence is that (at least) the vast majority of that is simple randomness. What we’re arguing about is a tiny percentage of the variation.

              I would add one final point – what’s a pressure situation? IMO, playing AT ALL in the major leagues is a pressure situation. That’s part of what I mean by saying that the kind of players that you are talking about don’t have significant major league careers. They come up, they can’t deal with the pressure, they get sent down.

              *Those players get driven out of the game quickly, unless they have extraordinary tools and natural ability. See Young, Delmon. Is there any other contemporary major league player like him? And, btw, Young does have a significant career advantage in “clutch” situations – quite possibly real in his case. (Did not display that in 2013, though.)

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            6. And your examples about hitters – again, very much real, but not a clutch phenomenon. Anxious hitters do that in all situations, not just “clutch” situations. And even that is, at least as often as not, a matter of the physical rather than the psychological, e.g., a player with poor bat speed has to “commit” sooner than a a player with good bat speed.

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        3. Can we please get an Advanced Statistics Discussion weekly thread started for larrym? Just kidding bud, this is very educational for me.

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      3. I’ve been saying this for awhile . . If you put Hernandezn on the Tigers (best fit him IMO) he would slide into the 8th or 9th spot perfectly. He is the kinda player that the Cards age been using over the past few years.

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  4. Is it too soon to start negotiations to resign Chooch to a 1-2 year contract as there seems to be no better options for 2014?

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    1. He’ll likely sign. Something like 2 years, $12 million. Probably money well spent and a good insurance policy. I keep wondering if the Phillies will really surprise us and come out of nowhere to sign Ellsbury, who I think will price himself out of contract with the Red Sox. He brings a lot of injury risk and can be inconsistent, but when he’s on, wow, what an electric player. In such a scenario, Revere almost certainly gets traded and Hernandez becomes an even more important back-up and utility player. The Phillies will make some type of splash this off season, just not sure how right now.

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      1. Catch, you might see that if the Phillies record falls to 10th of lower, we don’t resign Halladay(assuming Gonzalez is healthy) and trade someone for bullpen help. If we finish higher than 10th than I don’t think you will see any signings requiring losing a 1rst round pick and the money pool attached to it.

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    2. Not too early at all. He’s proven his career isn’t dead. Easier to resign him now than after the season, and then that is one less thing for RAJ to worry about over the winter.

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  5. “As there seems to be no other options” who are you Ruben Amaro?? Just resign everybody!!!!!
    What about Jarrod Saltalamacchia??

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    1. Sandberg, what if Jarrod S. resigns with the Red Sox? I am not advocating resign everyone but the Phillies have little catcher depth at the higher levels and Joseph still a question mark. Chill out as I just asked a question and have not heard any news about a contract.

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        1. Yes. But that really only matters if you are signing Salty as the long term answer behind the plate which I do not think he is. I’d much rather have Ruiz for 2 years than Salty for any number of years is my point.

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    3. Depending upon how much it will cost (he’ll certainly command more years, and probably a higher AAV, than Ruiz), yes, Salalmacchia would be a better choice.

      But, in common with a lot of hypothetical FA sigings, he’s going to have multiple suitors. If the Phillies’ strategy is to sign Salalmacchia, and he signs somewhere else, then you’re basically relying on Knapp or Rupp.

      Now, a case could be made for holding off on resigning Ruiz until you see if you can sign Salalmacchia, but that obviously carries a downside risk. The question, i suppose, is whether Salalmacchia is a guy that you think can be part of the next contending Phillies team. I don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other on that. He’s no better than a decent regular – certainly not as good as Ruiz was in his prime, but then Ruiz is 6 years older and we know he isn’t going to be part of the next contending Phillies team.

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  6. Rupp starts tonight. I’m curious to see how the big guy moves….I’m rooting for him. Chooch is old but Kratz is no kid himself. We’re going to need the pipeline to payoff.

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      1. really curious. how much of a upgrade would rupp be over kratz, two things i like about kratz he throws well, and has power, not a bad backup, dont know if rupp is a upgrade.

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        1. Kratz is having a pretty bad offensive year. It’s possible that Rupp would be no more than a lateral move from Kratz, but he is younger and brings more upside.

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  7. I understand that Salty has issues but how did we get to this point?
    Ruben keeps on chasing the dragon and thinks he can replicate past teams. He still thinks that these guys (Utley, Rollins, Doc, Nose Howard, etc) can put it together one last year? How about the GM finds a young guy that is blocked or maybe has had early struggles and buys low on him? A name that isnt even on our radar.
    Instead of bringing back Cooch because hes a fan favorite and known commodity.
    To simply say “there arent better options” is small time thinking.

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    3. See, I think this misstates the problem with Amaro. It’s overly simplistic (at least) to say that his problem is sticking too long with the veterans. Every case is unique. Arguably, two of the biggest reasons for the team’s decline are CF and RF – positions where he DID replace the veteran, but not successfully (at least so far with Revere in CF, granted that you can’t blame Amaro for the injury). Some of the team’s best players are still the veterans. Probably he should have had a better plan for first base, but I think that’s the only clear case where he went disastrously wrong staying with the veteran. (Obviously a couple other cases look bad in retrospect, but not with the information and alternatives that were available at the time.)

      The simple fact is that building a team is hard, and transitioning from a group of veterans is hard. Amaro has made mistakes, sure, and plenty of them, but they’re more mistakes of talent evaluation rather than over reliance on veterans. It may be unreasonable to expect the veterans to “put it together one last year,” but the simple fact is that there is NO strategy that’s going to result in a contender for the next couple of years. None. (Well, they could sign a couple of expensive free agents and hope for the best, but that’s probably the worst possible strategy – some chance at contention, but no guarantees, at the cost of long term competitiveness.)

      Now, how does this apply to catcher? I don’t think retaining Ruiz is a no brainer by any means, but I also think that picking up a long term solution at catcher is highly unlikely at the moment. Ruiz for a couple of cheap years could be a fine stop gap. They aren’t contending next year anyway. If their top pick was protected, McCann would not be an irrational option, but my guess he gets overpaid by Boston or the Yankees.

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  8. Good catchers are very scarce in MLB so there will be competition for them and the other teams will hold on to them. I don’t think there is a young catcher out there like you are suggesting but the Phillies can’t be wrong in signing a catcher this off season. A catcher with a good track record will be signed whether it is Ruiz(best internal option), Saltamacchia(good option) or someone else.

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  9. Imention about a week ago that ruf isnt a right fielder, he cant throw. someone explained to me they dont want to move brown, he is set in leftfield, well I know this much with that guy in right field, he better hit at least 40 homers a year , because he will kill them with his defense,He just isnt good enough to play that postion. and if people want to defend him in right, then go ahead, but you are dead wrong, A right fielder needs a good arm and a accurate arm. he has neither.

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    1. Hey. Guess what? Ever think time can be found to actually watch any play on the field? Seems to me, seen player throw from RF to Home Plate on the fly, and to 3rd base on the fly, with obvious power.. That’s not good enough ? Seems to me , the blah about lack of fielding prowess in this case as retold by various media sources is lack of knowledge about where to direct the landing of the ball to give a proper bounce for the fielder to make a play. This can be corrected through experience. And, irregardless, it has not been proven that defense from the corners has any appreciable effect on the winning or losing of many games, whatsoever. So, it appears this theory, is simply based upon a re-telling of the theories of various didactic crusaders seemed to be wanting to curry favor with for some reason.

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  12. Asche with another homerun. Surprising pop. Im very excited to see what he can do over a full year. It’s just too bad that we have so many lefties in the lineup. The catching situation is really a downer too. I actually wouldnt be opposed to trading for a young RH catcher over the offseason. Perhaps a Biddle, Tommy Joseph, Gillies package for Carlos Santana? I know how you guys hate giving away prospects though…

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      1. Why do people think we can give up slop like joseph coming off a injury,who hit under 200 and a 27 year olf outfielder who proven nothing to get a good catcher, cant understand the logic.

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          1. I believe that the belief that that package is not enough to get Carlos Santana is correct, however. Yes, thought Gillies was older, but looked and on October 31 he will be 25. Seems older though, and has enough of experience, that a better performance and production could be desired for acquiring teams. Joseph is coming off a major brain injury and not the first , and as a repeat patient is more susceptible to re-injury. If I was running a potential acquiring team, I would consider Joseph a basket case until proven otherwise. Biddle is the “local boy makes good ” story, and, this being a business, I doubt they trade him.

            Carlos Santana, on the other hand , is a switch-hitter, and, though being above my estimation of Saltalamacchia for PHILA ,due to seeming to hit better as RHB than LHB, I see defensive question marks. First, he only played half the games at Catcher and the rest as 1B or a DH. Also, looking at the defensive stats (most of which I didn’t feel like looking up the definition of or understand) but I see a lot of minuses with seemingly big numbers behind them. Perhaps , someone can expound on these numbers.
            Till then, I don’t see how the defensive question marks, would over-ride the perceived lack of experience of Rupp, by elements on here.

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            1. I agree with you and also think Biddle has less value league wide than we think. He’s good but nothing special, not anything most of the other teams don’t already have in their systems.

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  13. To all the posters who doubted Ache’s HR power last year. Though it can be rookie adrelanine and naturally SSS, but after 121 PAs with 5 Hrs, total of 12 XBH, he does show some pop. Playing half his games at CBP, he should hit, at a minimum, a total of 15-17 HRs.

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    1. SSS of course, but “the posters who doubted Ache’s HR power last year” were more question whether he could be a 20+ HR guy. I think most people were fairly confident he was at least a 12-15HR guy.

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      1. Yeah, agree, though it would be churlish to deny that his early power is a point in favor of the optimists.

        Let me expand upon that a bit … I’m in the position of being an Asche booster who has the opposite reputation because I got in many – in retrospect, too many – arguments with those who had what I considered (and still consider) excessive expectations of Asche. But at this point, Asche has vindicated those of us who felt that he could be a solid regular, and I am thrilled at his success. Obviously people more optimistic can also claim some vindication, though he is still a long way from the star that some were projecting. But many stars take time to get there, so I’m certainly not saying that his early performance is proving the optimists wrong, either.

        AND I will add this – I’ve said in the past that, IF Asche surprises us and becomes more than a solid regular, the most likely route to that is developing 20 plus HR power rather than 12 to 15 HR power. The idea that he was going to hit .320 or even .300 in the majors was always a pipe dream, but people who had higher power expectations, while IMO a bit on the optimistic side, were at least dreaming about the possible.

        And, while it is indeed WAY too soon to conclude that he is going to exceed the mid range power projections that ,myself and others made, I certainly agree that his early power is a point in favor of the optimists.

        Still IMO an open question is the defense. Oh, I don’t mean that I think he is or will be a BAD defender, and he’s obviously a vast improvement over M. Young, but I’m still a skeptic that he will be a plus defender. I hope to be proven wrong on this.

        Overall, SSS and FWIW, for those putting stock in WAR, right now he projects out to about 2.4 WAR over a full season, a slightly above average regular. Which would, as I have said many teams, be tremendously valuable. He doesn’t have to be a star to be valuable.

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        1. I said Asche would grow to be an above average regular with the possibility of some all-star seasons mixed in. That still looks like a reasonable (if optimistic) projection, assuming he stays at third. Asche’s work ethic and propensity toward continual improvement also bode well. One more thing. He’s literally as young as a “23 year old” prospect can be. If he were one day younger (July 1, 1990, not June 30, 1990), he would have been considered a 22 year old this season. So there’s some time here on the age curve. As for fielding, I think he’s pretty close to average right now (early jitters cost him some runs, for the last three weeks, he’s been a bout average). If he had been average all along in the field, his annualized WAR would be between 4-5. I’m not saying he will be that good, just that he has flashed some very encouraging potential. And, yes, he’s not hitting .330. His value lies in doing a lot of things pretty well, hitting with moderate power (17-25 homers) and exercising at least moderate plate discipline. If he does that, he’s a keeper.

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          1. He is definitely a keeper. He will stay at 3B. With Utley resigned and the progress shown by Hernandez, there won’t be another Asche to 2B experiment. Franco ending the year as a 1B is further evidence that the Phillies see Asche as their starting 3B going forward.

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            1. I do think moving Franco to first would be a horrible mistake, unless he can’t hack third defensively. (And if you want to be charitable to the organization, THAT might be the reason for the first base experiment.)

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            2. If Franco’s bat forces him to the big leagues in June 2014 (or whatever the Super Two date is next year) or later, then maybe LF is his best option, since Ryan Howard will not be moving anytime soon.

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            3. At least the Phillies have most of next season to decide what they ultimately want to do with Franco. Perhaps they’ve decided that 2014 may very well be Howard’s last season starting for us. His future salary may be low enough going into 2015 that they will be willing to eat most of it in a trade, as they did with Thome. Platoon Howard in 2014 and let him put up good enough numbers and stay healthy enough all season that some team will want him, if even just a little.

              It is at least a little odd that with 1B Ruf being taught to play RF, that the Phillies decided to end the 2013 season with Franco learning to play 1B. Since the bigger holes on the big team are in the OF, that seems, on the surface at least, to be an unusual move to make — move your top prospect all the way down the defensive ladder to 1B. I’m curious what their game plan is for Franco.

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          2. Catch, you’re probably in the best position of anyone now to claim vindication on Asche. My reference to the optimists in my last post wasn’t really referring to you, but to the people who were/are even higher on him than you are. I do recall a prediction from last summer (not from you) that he would be a .320 hitter in the majors.

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            1. Thanks, Larry. Yeah, there’s always an outside chance that he could grow into some type of stardom, but it’s very unlikely and not consistent with his profile thus far. He’s probably just going to be really good, which is A-OK by me. And, maybe I’m old fashioned, but I love the way he plays the game and, yes, I think it’s very important to have young players who can grow into role models on the team.

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  14. Will make bradindc happy:
    CSN reports:
    “……home plate umpire Mark Wegner wandered over to the Phillies’ dugout — these things happen in a blowout — and told Sandberg how impressed he was with Rupp’s work behind the plate. “The umpire said that was the best visibility and framing of pitches he’d seen all season,” Sandberg said. “It was pretty cool. With (Rupp’s) posture, he gets a little rounded. I can see where the umpire would see the ball very well coming in. That was a pretty good compliment. Pretty impressive.”
    Rupp said he’d never received a compliment like that from an umpire. “That makes me feel good,” he said. “You want to give the umpire the best look and give him a chance to call a strike for the pitcher, so that’s something I pride myself in.”

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  15. Freddy Galvis can flat out play defense….anywhere! Last night in LF he leaped and almost caught the ball off the top of the fence, except he was born two inches shorter, then he cuts off a shot with the proper angle to the ball and held the batter to a single.
    He is something else in the field.

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  17. Jimmy Rollins’ next home run will be the 200th of his career. When he hits it, he’ll will be one of 10 players in major league history with at least 200 home runs and 400 stolen bases, joining Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar, Joe Morgan, Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, along with Barry and Bobby Bonds, Craig Biggio, Johnny Damon and Marquis Grissom. Former Phillie Bobby Abreu finished his career last season with 287 home runs and 399 stolen bases.

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  18. Ruben looks to be shopping for an outfield upgrade.
    “If we have an outfield of Ruf, Revere and Brown, or Brown, Revere and Ruf, is it good enough?” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said yesterday, while looking out toward the outfield spots at Citizens Bank Park. “Is it good enough defensively? I don’t know that. It can be. That’s an option for us, I guess. But we’re going to try to do as well as we can, do as much as we can. Do we have to? I don’t know that,” Amaro said. “But I think it’s something we’ll look to try to do.”
    “We could add a bat and make people share positions,” Amaro said. “A lot of it depends on the overall makeup of the club. Sometimes, having flexibility is good.”
    ……………..does he want better defense or more right-handed power?

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  19. Not sure where to post this, but interesting note about Franco in the BA POY chat:

    Phil (Philly): Wow! Maikel Franco was not even considered. Any Reasons why?

    John Manuel: I’m not sure why you would think he wasn’t considered. He wasn’t a finalist; our last two were Buxton and Springer, those were the guys we debated the most. But Maikel Franco certainly had one of the best seasons in the minor leagues. I’ve been working on our Florida State League top 20 prospects list, and he’s going to rank very highly in that league. Scouts who have seen him the last couple of years come away very impressed with the improvements he’s made. I know he’s played some 1B, but the scouts and managers I’ve talked to like him as a profile 3B with power and feel for hitting. He’s a potential star.

    I think this is the first time i have seen an national guy say he is a potential star.

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  20. So, Amaro keeps asking about Giancarlo Stanton:

    http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-still-have-thing-giancarlo-stanton

    I pooh-poohed the Stanton scenario earlier in this season, but it becomes more plausible as he becomes more expensive in arbitration, and Salisbury must be raising the possibility for a reason. Obviously, any package starts with Franco and Biddle. I wonder how much more it would take? Crawford can’t be traded yet, except as a PTBNL. Is there even enough talent in the system?

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      1. Yep, I see this as a pipe-dream and just fan appeasement by Amaro.Teams with top-10 to top-20 prospects are willing to offer them and more for Stanton. The Phillies don’t have the premium talent in the farm to get it done. If some of the guys drafted/signed in 2012 and 2013 develop then in a few years that might be different, but we wouldn’t be talking about Stanton then anyway.

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        1. Agreed. This is Reuben throwing out a name to make it look like he’s got things under control. There is NO package the Phillies could offer that would get Stanton

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      2. right now the strongest package, would be, imo, herdanez, deikman. biddle, franco and quinn or morgan, and they would l laugh at t hat i believe.

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      3. Yes, MattWinks, that was my general sense of it. Also, all things being equal–and with a trade chip like Stanton, the Marlins are in a position to dictate his destination–I don’t think they would trade a player like Stanton within the division. Texas has a well-stocked farm system and will probably need to replace Nelson Cruz in the offseason. Boston also has a ton of prospects, lots of payroll space, and will need to replace Ellsbury in the offseason. (Under this scenario, Victorino could move over from right back to center.) Either of those teams would be able to offer a lot more than the Phillies, and the Marlins would never have to see Stanton again, outside of an interleague series here or there.

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        1. I was thinking about stanton, its my dream. but there is one way it might b e done. a long shot, if texas or boston or st louis wants lee. then why not a three way trade, we get prospects to satisfy marlins, and texas or boston gets lee and we get stanton.

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    2. Mets are also in on the betting. two of Wheeler, Noah Syn, Montero and then annual ‘pass-around again’ Travis d’Arnaud, and another positional player.

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  21. Asche is in a bit of a rut. Ruiz is hitting much better and it’s very likely they resign him for 2 years. Im fine with that. Cesar Hernandez with another good game. He is impressing me although the speed isnt coming through yet. I think there is a small chance he develops into an average 2nd baseman.

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    1. Starting to think a 2-yr deal for Ruiz is something of a no-brainer. I suspect if we offered him $10mil for 2-yrs he would jump on it in a heartbeat.

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      1. Why not QO Chooch. If he goes somewhere else we get the pick and if he signs it, its only for one year! Joseph could be ready in two years and Rupp/Kratz will still be around.

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          1. But he is worth $15/16M for two years! With being 36-years old in his second year.
            Many people are excited about his latest offensive surge. I am doubtful it will translate two years form now.

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            2. Romus – because there’s zero chance Ruiz rejects a QO. Why would he when he would otherwise have difficulty obtaining $14mil over 2-yrs.

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            3. My point. Sign him for one year. The second year may really be something less then desirable from an offensice standpoint due to his age. Further Rupp should be well along to play more of an effective role in 2015. There is also Kratz and possibly Joseph coming around. Right now Ruiz’ projection from one Philly writer, Based on his recent offensive explosion, is in the $6/7M per year range. If you can get him for $4/5M per, then I would consider a two year contract of 2/$8M.

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  22. Glad to see the powers that be on this site were not conned into putting up a seemingly relevant and pertinent article (like the crowd at BeerLeaguer) concerning Dave $ Montgomery”s seeming endorsement of Ruben Amaro Jr.’s remaining the GM going forward, because it is just lip service, the forum is a media bottom-feeder, and everyone on here knows everything to begin with…………..not.

    Irregardless, I think some of the quotes are very telling, as sometimes in words the thought process is revealed. I will paraphrase… Dave $ Montgomery says that Ruben does a good job because he gets a consensus of all opinions before making a decision, and later he uses the term “we” as having been making decisions . I would say this is an admission that ownership has a hand in personnel decisions, and as it is said, ” the man who pays the piper calls the tune

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    1. That being the case, we need to ask where the ideas that lead to some of these decisions are initiated. By whom are they conceptualized? No doubt it is RAJ’s doing. That article does nothing to limit RAJ’s responsibility in nearly all of these decisions.

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      1. Steve, have you seen MAG(the Cuban pitcher) at the Phillies facility yet? If so, can you let us know what you observed.

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        1. I haven’t Philabalt. Will definitely be getting down there in the coming weeks but travel for work is somewhat limiting my opportunities. He’s the one player who I’m most anxious to get a look at. Will post my observations when I get a chance to get over to Clearwater

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      1. Did anyone else notice that Dave Duncan(the former St. Louis pitching coach) is possibly interested in coming back in an advisory role ? The Phillies certainly could use his expertise no matter what role he took.

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        1. I saw that (MLB Rumors I think). Was thinking the same thing. I’m not sure Dubee is solely responsible but when you look at the promise of bull pen arms at LV the past few years and the fact that none of them have developed into anything remotely close than we had expected, you have to think coaching played a role. DD would be a nice addition but it also didn’t sound as if he’s quite ready to return

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          1. Two have surprised of late, Diekman and Rosenberg. And Martin may actually be a hidden gem also. Can you imagine, three guys throwing heat in the mid-90s and upper coming out of the Phillies bullpen!
            And hopefully throwing strikes.

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            1. I don’t know if Martin in the Bullpen is a “Hidden Gem”. Pretty much every evaluator has him pegged as an elite 8th inning/possibly 9th inning guy once a team finally gave up on him as a starter.

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            2. Whatever! Just an expression.
              He was a starter in the Dodgers minor league system and a starter in the Phillies minor league system. AND would have remained there this year if he could get through the 6th inning.

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            3. Joe, you are right but that leaves one less hole to fill in the bullpen at least. If Martin could have proved he could start that would have been better for the rotation.

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  23. Hopefully someone can help me here, random ? I went to a Lakewood game around Aug 20th and they had something out front of the park where you could fill out a slip w your name (and other info) to win whatever it was. I just got a call today by someone with Atlantic City Promotions who said they ran the sweepstakes at the Blue Claws game and that I had won a $4,000 gift basket. Said to call to verify my info and pick a day to come pick up what I won. Does anyone on here who might be Lakewood season ticket holders know if this sounds shady or legit? Thank guys sorry this isn’t really baseball related.

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    1. Eric, do you know what organization ran the promotion? If you do look up the charity on the web to see if it meets the required standards of a charity. If you have no clue then call them or the Lakewood Blue Claws for their name and either check it on the internet or talk to them. Most importantly, if they ask you for personal information like your Social Security number, bank information than I would think it was not a real charity just a scam. Also, if it sounds funny call your local police.

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            1. I called and left a message w my name and number. Will let you know on Monday if its legit or not. Hopefully it is. 4k gift basket would be nice.

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        2. Roccom, ID Theft is no laughing matter as you must prove your innocence to the creditors which takes a lot of time.

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            1. Roccom, I might have overracted but it has happened to me three times already so I am very aware of the problems it presents. Take care of yourself Roccom.

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  24. Sandberg on Hernandez as a CF, reported to CSN Philly:
    Hernandez seems to be a natural in center field. Sandberg said Hernandez gets good reads on fly balls and has a strong arm that translates well from the infield to the outfield. Part of that is because of Hernandez’s speed, but also because he’s a pretty good baseball player who understands the game.
    “His athletic ability is allowing him to play the position pretty well right now for the lack of experience that he has, the reads off the bat that he’d normally have,” Sandberg said. “He’s had some plays right at him, handled sinking liners very nice. He’s had balls hit over his head, but his stride and his foot speed [are good].
    “His speed to the gaps has been very good. He’s called off corner outfielders on balls. He’s been a pleasant surprise. It’s not an easy position by no means, but I think his athletic ability has allowed him to cover the position very well and he finds himself in the lineup.”

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  25. Matt Gelb on Miguel Gonzalez:
    “I don’t think there is any necessity for him to go throw winter ball or anything like that,” assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said. “We just want to see where he’s at. We want to get him assimilated into our organization and be ready to go for spring training.” Gonzalez, who turns 27 on Sept. 23, will remain a great mystery until next spring. The Phillies have him working with players in the Florida Instructional League this fall, but Proefrock said he was unsure whether Gonzalez will actually pitch in a game. “The main thing is to get him in a situation where it’s controlled,” Proefrock said. “We’ll see how it plays out. We don’t know exactly what he’s been doing.” Gonzalez’s three-year contract starts in 2014. He is not being paid a salary until next April, but received a signing bonus last August. Proefrock said Gonzalez is healthy. Concerns about his elbow lowered the guaranteed years and money he received. “Spring training is long enough where you can build him up and do what you need to do,” Proefrock said. “I don’t think there is any need to have him in a competitive situation before spring training. There is nothing set in concrete. There are a lot of unknowns as far as where he’s at and what he’s been doing.”

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  26. Bob Brookover, philly.com, says today on Asche and Ruf:
    ‘They are proof that sometimes hardcore baseball players are better selections than the high-ceiling athletes’
    ……………better not tell that to Ruben.

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  27. So hows about a “Race to the Protected Pick” thread, Brad? With two weeks remaining it looks like the Phils have about the easiest schedule of the essentially 6 teams vying for the 8th through 10th worst records. Concede one of those slots to the Blue Jays who face all contending teams (save a makeup game with the White Sox) to finish the season.
    By no means would I ever root for the Phils to lose a game, but it sure makes these losses in “meaningless” games easier to swallow.
    How much impact do our experts think a protected pick would have?

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    2. IMO, it will depends on the FA they want to sign. Concerning arms, there are pitchers that will be out there with plenty of experience and past success, but questionable health issues, Halladay, Josh Johnson et al…..and then you have someone like Matt Garza, who was a Ranger rental, so you do not lose the pick there either. Do you take a chance, its only money and no worry of losing the first pick.

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      1. I would put Garza at the top of my shopping list. I don’t think he would cost as much as Greinke probably a little more than Anibal Sanchez but whatever it is in that range I would do it.

        And that assumes he wants to come here…

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