End of the season report card on all 2B and SS. Remember, grades are based upon what pre-season expectations were for each player, measured against actual performance NOT against each other. Next up will be catchers on Tuesday.
Lehigh Valley
Cesar Hernandez, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2008; .314/.378/.406 in 401 AB’s; 2HR 37RBI; 33SB; .321 vs. LHP, .305 vs. RHP; .264 with RISP; .325 post all star break; 9%BB/19% k rates; 79 games at 2B with 9 errors (.976); 4.56 R/F; 24 games in the OF with 4 errors (.948); 2.54 R/F. Hernandez far exceeded all expectations in 2013 and solidified himself as a top 10 prospect entering 2014. Even while being flip flopped from 2B into CF, Hernandez continued to perform at a very high level offensively, hitting well above .300 all year and was among the league leaders in SB’s. The question at the major league level: where does he fit. Grade: A; 2014: Philadelphia; Prospect Ranking: 4
Michael Martinez, 31, Acquired in the 2011 Rule 5 draft; .300/.352/.407 in 243 AB’s; 3HR 28RBI; 6SB; .343 vs. LHP; .283 vs. RHP; .311 with RISP; .275 Post All Star Break; 7%BB/14% k rates; 46 games at SS with 9 errors (.954); 12 games at 2B with 2 errors (.968); 10 games in the OF without an error; 2 games at 3B with 1 error. I desperately try to separate my feelings for MiniMart as a major leaguer as opposed to the season that Martinez had as a minor leaguer. Put simply, Lehigh Valley could not have asked for anything more out of him. He hit for average and was a offensive catalyst for Lehigh Valley (words I thought would never be associated with Martinez). His versatility was an additional plus as well. Now that said, I hope and pray never to see him in a Phillies uniform again (all due respect)Grade: A-; 2014: He could be back in Lehigh Valley and just as easily could be with another organization.
Freddy Galvis, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2013; .245/.274/.357 in 241 AB’s; 3HR 25RBI; 3SB; .316 vs. LHP; .223 vs. RHP; .263 with RISP; .227 Post All Star Break; 4%bb/20%k rates; 57 games at SS with 3 errors (.988); 4.28 R/F; 3 games at 3B without an error; 3 games at 2B without an error; Going into 2013, I thought Galvis would spend the entire season with the big club and play an important role for the Phillies. When it was clear Galvis was not going to get the AB’s he needed to stay sharp he was sent down and pretty much gave Lehigh Valley exactly what we thought. Outstanding glovework, with a mediocre bat. I still think Galvis has a bright future and the potential to play four or five days a week for a major league club. Grade: C; 2014: Floating between Lehigh Valley and Philly
Miguel Abreu, 28, Re-Signed as a free agent in 2013; .190/.224/.283 in 184 AB’s spanning 4 levels of the organization; 3HR 17RBI; 6SB; 11 games at 2B with 3 errors (.941); 20 games at 3B with 5 errors (.900); 16 games at SS with 5 errors (.923); 5 games in the OF without an error; Very rough year for ABreu who literally bounced around to every level of the organization and provided little other than versatility. Grade: D-; 2014: Another organization
Reading
Albert Cartwright, 25, Acquired from Houston in 2011; .254/.314/.350 in 489 AB’s; 7HR 42RBI; 26SB; .254 vs. LHP, .253 vs. RHP, .232 with RISP; .252 Post All Star Break; 6%BB/21% K rates; 105 games at 2B with 11 errors (.976); 4.34 R/F; 20 games in the OF with 1 error (.979); Cartwright had a solid year offensively and was one of the Phillies leaders in runs scored in the organization, showing increasing stolen base proficiency that has increased his value. Cartwright primarily played 2B but towards the end of the season was receiving regular OF work as well, indicating Cartwright continues to be in the Phillies plans. Grade: B; 2014: Lehigh Valley
Edgar Duran, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2007; .225/.277/.311 in 405 AB’s; 4HR 33RBI; 12SB; .222 vs. LHP; .225 vs. RHP; .256 with RISP; .210 Post All Star Break; 5%bb/21% k rates; 101 games at SS with 22 errors (.947); 3.87 R/F; 12 games at 2B with 1 error (.983); Duran’s offensive numbers were very blaise, which was expected, but the 22 errors were more than anticipated. There is just too much long term mediocrity for the possibility of a major league future. Grade: D+; 2014: Another organization
Matt Tolbert, 31, Signed as a free agent in 2013; .327/.364/.367 in 150 AB’s spanning four levels of the organization; 0HR 13RBI; 21 games at 2B with 1 error (.988); 17 games at 3B with 3 errors (.939); 3 games at SS without an error; 2 games in the OF without an error. Tolbert missed almost all of the season injured. He did a nice job in the minimal amount of time he was on the field but helps the organization only as a depth player. Grade: C; 2014: Another organization
Troy Hanzawa, 28, Phils 18th round pick in 2008; .292/.326/.387 in 253 AB’s between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 1HR 22RBI; 2SB; .294 vs. LHP; .296 vs. RHP; .217 with RISP; 3%bb/14%k rates; 60 games at SS with 4 errors (.981); 3.52 r/f; 11 games at 2B with 2 errors (.963); 5 games at 3B with 3 errors (.824); Hanzawa did what was asked of him which was to comeptently fill in middle infield gaps in Lehigh Valley and Reading during 2013. He played well in his role but a long term future is limited by a AAA skill set. Grade: B; 2014: I think Hanzawa will be back for one more year in a similar role to 2013.
Clearwater
Carlos Alonso, 25, Phils 32nd round pick in 2010; .260/.360/.349 in 453 AB’s; 4HR 43 RBI; 2SB; 12%bb/14% k rates; .218 vs. LHP, .280 vs. RHP; .252 with RISP; .250 Post All Star; 117 games at 2B with 2 errors (.996); 4.59 R/F.; 3 games at 3B without an error and 2 games in the OF without an error. Alonso is admittedly my favorite under the radar guy in the organization. It doesn’t look all that pretty but he consistently gets the job done, and does it well. Scores a ton of runs, high OBP and extremely solid in the field. Grade: B; 2014: Reading
Jose Mojica, 25, Signed as a free agent in 2013; .233/.286/.286 in 275 AB’s; 0HR 25RBI; 1SB; .279 vs. LHP; .212 vs. RHP; .200 with RISP; 6%bb/17% k rates; 83 games at SS with 17 errors (.954); 4.20 R/F. Not much more to say other than simply medicore at best this year. Grade: C-; 2014: Another organization
Jon Roof, 24, Signed as a free agent in 2013; .254/.321/.381 in 307 AB’s between Lakewood and CLearwater; 6HR 42RBI; 5/11SB; Hit .246 for CLearweater in his 248 AB’s; .221 vs. LHP, .256 vs RHP; .250 with RISP; Hit .174 in August. 9%bb/13% k rates; 26 games at 2B with 2 errors (.978); 3.25 R/F; 12 games in the OF with 1 error; 47 games at SS with 10 errors (.953); 4.30 R/F. Roof was very strong at the beginning of the year, but faded as the year went on. Looking at the overall body of work, Roof was relatively solid in the field and his bat produced at times. Grade: C+; 2014: I dont see a promotion in Roof’s future with the Phillies but he could be back in CLearwater if the Phils have a need and Roof has a want.
Lakewood
JP Crawford, 18, Phils 1st round draft pick in 2013; .308/.405/.400 in 195 AB’s between GCL and Lakewood; 1HR 21RBI; 14SB; Hit .208 in 53 late season AB’s for Lakewood; 14%BB/15% k rates; 45 games at SS with 9 errors (.959); 4.74 R/F; Overall a very successful start to Crawford’s professional career. While he did struggle a bit during the last week of the season in Lakewood; Crawford was immediately an offensive catalyst and leader for the GCL Phils before his promotion: Grade: A-; 2014: Lakewood to start; Prospect Ranking: 3
Angelo Mora, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2010; .218/.288/.308 in 435 AB’s between Williamsport and Lakewood; 5HR 41RBI; 21SB; .227 vs. LHP, .210 vs. RHP; .207 with RISP; .240 Post All STar Break; 9%bb/19% k rates; 61 games at SS with 15 errors (.944); 4.18 R/F; 57 games at 2B with 11 errors (.963); 5.05 R/F. Very pedestrian offensive numbers absent his good speed on the basepaths. Just 20, there is room for hope for Mora as he makes a reasonable amount of contact. Grade: C; 2014: Clearwater, playing second opposite Quinn at SS.
Roman Quinn, 20, Phils 2nd round pick in 2011; /238/.323/.346 in 260 AB’s; 5HR 21RBI; 32SB; /266 vs. LHP; .230 vs. RHP; .203 with RISP; 9%bb/22% k rates; 64 games at SS with 31 errors (.878); 3.39 R/F. Quinn missed the last 10 weeks of the season with a broken wrist and was ready to get back on the field at years end. Quinn’s season really cant be viewed as anything other than disappointing between the very difficult transition to SS, the injury and an unimpressive triple slash. That said, plenty of talent and still plenty of time. Quinn would have had 50 plus SB’s even hitting just .238 but for his injury. Grade: C-; 2014: Clearwater, although where he plays will become a debate if the problems at SS continue. A movr to the OF seems likely. Prospect Ranking: 5
Alejandro Villalobos, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2010; .272/.323/.335; 0HR 29RBI; 3SB; .333 vs. LHP; .244 vs. RHP; .288 with RISP; 6%bb/11% k rates; Hit .288 post all star break; 63 games at 2B with 7 errors (.977); 4.65 R/F; 2 games at 3B without an error; Very solid season for Villalobos in a Lakewood lineup that was generally pretty anemic. Little speed and less power limit him long term, but certainly played well enough to move up, including a good season in the field. Grade: B; 2014: CLearwater, with an outside shot at Reading.
Williamsport
Andrew Pullin, 19, Phils 5th round pick in 2012 draft; .261/.283/.412 in 211 AB’s; 3HR 23 RBI; 1SB; .311 vs. LHP; .240 vs. RHP; .269 with RISP; .233 post all star break; 3%bb/17% K rates; 49 games at 2B with 5 errors (.976); 4.14 R/F; While Pullin did not do quite as much with the bat as I expected, the successful transition to 2B makes up for that this year. He did a solid job and his skill with the bat came out, just slightly less often than expected. Grade: B ; 2014: Starting 2B in Lakewood; Prospect Ranking: 23
Sam Dove, 22, Phils 14th round pick in 2013 draft; .171/.202/.248 in 105 AB’s between GCL and WIlliamsport; 2HR 9RBI; 0SB; 3%bb/16%k rates; .205 Post All Star Break; 21 games at 2B with 5 errors (.950); 4.57 R/F; 5 games at 3B with 1 error; 7 games at 1B with 1 error; A rough beginning for his professional career for the Georgia Tech product; Playing part time is surely a difficult transition and DOve showed glimpses, but those glimpses were infrequent; Grade: D; 2014: He may get a few early season AB’s in Lakewood but hasn’t done much to warrant a promotion yet, so I expect him in Williamsport unless he really impresses in the FIL/Spring Training.
Jairo Cardozo, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2010; .196/.267/.228 in 92 AB’s; 0HR 3RBI; .156 vs. LHP, .217 vs. RHP; 9%bb/15% k rates; 13 games at 2B with 2 errors (.963); 13 games at SS (.948); 5 games at 3B without an error. AFter hitting .209 in the GCL in 2012, Cardozo fell back under the Mendoza line in 2013. Grade: Tough to grade a 19 year old in under 100 AB’s, but I suspect the Phils were hoping for more…D+; 2014: Extended Spring and then WIlliamsport
Malquin Canelo, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2011; .221/.287/.296 in 199 AB’s between GCL Phils and Williamsport; 1HR 15RBI; 10SB; .250 vs. LHP, .206 vs. RHP; .120 with RISP; Hit .265 since Aug 1; 9%bb/24% k rates; 60 games at SS with 15 errors (.949); 4.68 R/F. ALbeit with 15 errors in short season, Canelo projects as an outstanding defensive player and came along offensively during the last month of the season. Canelo just turned 19, so time is on his side as far as development. Grade: C+; 2014: Lakewood
GCL
Robinson Torres, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; .283/.356/.390 in 159AB’s; 2HR 20RBI; 10SB; .283 vs. LHP; .283 vs. RHP; .289 with RISP; .310 in August; 8%bb/11% k rates; 44 games at 2B with 8 errors (.959); 4.20 R/F. Extremely solid 2013 for Torres who is a bit old for this level. 2014: Certainly Williamsport with an outside shot at Lakewood.
Jair Morelos, 19, SIgned as a free agent in 2010; .291/.328/.331 in 128 AB’s; 0HR 8RBI; 1SB; .263 vs. LHP; .303 vs. RHP; .310 with RISP; .319 in August; 5%bb/8%K rates; 24 games at SS with 8 errors (.927); 4.21 R/F; 14 games at 2B with out an error; Grade: B; Morelos had a solid first season in the States and has done enough to move to WIlliamsport for 2014.
Gustavo Gonzalez, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2010; Hit .174 in 46 AB’s split between GCL, Lakewood, and CLearwater. 1HR 3RBI; 40% K rate; 12 games at SS with 2 errors (.951); 6 games at 2B without an error. Gonzalez has gone backwards over the past two years. Grade: D-. 2014: I dont think he is back
Phuture Phillies 
Freddy and Cesar will both be in Philly on the bench in 14
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Why put Cesar on the bench?
Let him patrol CF, with a winter of learing it more, and dangle Revere in package for a pitcher. Revere turned the corner beginning in May and his value is higher then it was in April, and with his age and contract-control he would be desirable to a few teams..
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learning vs learing!
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Sadly Cesar’s arm appears as bad as Revere’s. I would not be opposed to this trade idea though.
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Well I think Cesar would be worse than Revere so it would depend on what you got back for Revere.
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If Galvis has options left, I think he should play everyday at AAA for one more season then take over ss in 2015. I would like to see him get his average up to .275. Cesar should definitely be with the big club next season.
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I see that as the ultimate role for both of them, but, as long as there is some chance that one or both could develop into more than that (and I think there is), I’m not sure that I’d want to see both of them on the bench in Philadelphia. Sandberg is likely more capable than Manuel in getting a bench player an adequate number of PA – Galvis could get 300 PA even assuming no major injuries among the regulars – but even he won’t be able to find enough playing time for both of them.
As for the Hernandez as center fielder idea (not yours I know) … no. Not next year, not ever. I can see the case for him as a regular second baseman, even though I don’t buy it. As a center fielder, he is basically a poor man’s Ben Revere – worse in every regard, except a little more pop. But not much even of that.
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I like Ben Revere, however if Sandberg’s decides to go with Cesar Hernandez for the future in CF I would have to respect his judgement.
Concerning their bats, saying ‘worse in every regard’ implies complete inferiority on Hernandez’s part, I disagree with that assessment. In their last full MiLB year Cesar’s ISO and OBP were better then Ben Revere’s (.092 and .375 vs .058 and .371), so CH was a bit higher.
Defensively, their speed and range are equal.
But what concerns me more about Revere then Hernandez, is that after 4/5 years in the OF, Revere still has faults in reading thebatted ball off the bat, while in his short sample Cesar hgas been more then adequate as reported by some former players turned baseball analyst.
Again, I would only do a deal with Revere only if the return is favorable.
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I think Revere is with the club next season as they’d be selling low otherwise. I also don’t think Ben needs to be a 600 PA type of guy either. The circus catches are nice, the bad reads are not
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In my mind, the jury remains out on Revere. He had a very cold spell with the bat, then he had a hot spell, then he was hurt. Perhaps he’s just a streaky hitter, or perhaps one of the two Revere’s we saw was an outlier, not to be repeated. He was advertised as very good defense, but he really wasn’t, and it wasn’t just the weak arm — we were warned of that. For the year as a whole, he had an OPS of .690, which is the best he has done in the bigs. So… he may still be improving as a hitter, but in the 5 years since he was promoted from A-ball to A+-ball, the highest OPS he has had for a ceiling is .741 and that was from 5 years ago. I suspect that is his ceiling as a hitter. If he really were a very good defensive CF and base-stealer, that would be good enough. So, next year tells the tale of his Phillies career. I think Cesar Hernandez can put up a .690 OPS in the bigs, be as good a base stealer as Revere, and play as good a CF D, so Revere needs to step it up a notch over what he has done thus far in his career.
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Revere was a .294 hitter in 2012 and was hitting well before he got hurt in a freak accident as you said. I believe his defense improved as the season progressed as he adjusted to the tricky winds at CBP and started playing shallower before his injury. I do not really see anyone(no offense to C. Hernandez and T. Gillies) to challenge Revere next year and expect him to be our starting CF in 2014. After 2013-2014 we will have to see what happens as I don’t expect the Phillies to sign either Choo or Ellsbury for CF.
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All true. I’ll just say that I put very little stock in batting average. In 2012, Revere’s BA was good, but his OBP was only .333, his OPS was a not-good-enough .675, and he wasn’t even his team’s choice to play CF. So, in general, apart from the missed games, I think his 2013 was better than his 2012, but that neither year is truly satisfactory.
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The second part of his 2013 was satisfactory, which is why I say I am waiting to see which version of the Revere we’ve seen is real, or whether he truly is an up and down guy and the totality of his 2013 is the best we can expect.
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What have you seen to suggest Cesar can be as good at swiping bags as Revere? As far as I can tell, Revere is a full grade higher in speed, and his efficiency is higher (78% in the majors for Revere, versus 71% in the minors for Cesar, most of which is due to this past year). Plus, you also assume he’ll be on base as often as Revere if you think they will be equally as effective at stealing. Now a .324 rate (Revere’s career rate) isn’t great, but Cesar won’t necessarily match that.
As far as I can tell, Cesar really is only an upgrade in power. And I wouldn’t say that is enough of an upgrade to make him break even.
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I said all along that signing Bourn for CF would be a bad idea. And for all the flaws of Revere mentioned in this thread (which I agree with), we should all be glad that the Phils didn’t sign Bourn. I figured Bourn would have one or two more good years before the decline but his numbers this year don’t look very good.
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I keep qualifying my replies by saying “I’m not a big believer in this or that stat”, but I’ll do it again. I’m not a big believer in lifetime averages, especially minor league career averages. I place a lot more value on the more recent stuff. I look at Hernandez as a guy who has had adjustment issues at higher levels, but who put up a .345 obp in close to a full year at AA in 2012 and now a .375 obp in AAA in close to a full season in 2013. So, I think he can get on base as often as Revere. I also look at him as a guy who stole 32 bases in 40 chances in AAA this season. Those are his most recent numbers and likely reflect maturation as a player, although I admit the guy has a lot of delayed steals, which are unlikely to work as well in the bigs. Revere put up a .371 obp in AA and in parts of 2 seasons, about a .345 obp in AAA. Revere’s current year in the bigs is his best for obp at .338, but he has only stolen 22 bases in 30 attempts, which works out to a .733 success rate. Again, I’ll go with his most recent numbers over is career numbers. Certainly, Hernandez won’t do quite as well in the bigs as he did in AAA, but since he is 2 years younger than Revere, he has more room for future improvement. I think it far from obvious which will be the better CF for us going forward. In reality, I’d like a better CF than either of them, but that isn’t happening over the next couple seasons. Eventually, Hernandez plays 2B in Philly.
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Really, that his obp was no higher than that with a .380 babip is an indictment of his on base skills. He doesn’t walk or hit for power, and his strikeout rate is high for someone of that profile.
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You are correct that .380 is a very high BABIP. You are wrong that he does not walk. He walked in over 9% of his plate appearances in Allentown. Someone said a guy with that high a K-rate can’t hit .300. Well, his K-rate really isn’t all that high. It was a little below 19% in Allentown. That’s not bad at all. I think those who are indicting Hernandez are looking at career stats and ignoring the improvement he has made over the past two seasons. To me, career stats for a minor leaguer are meaningless. Few guys stay the same. They gain ability and improve their stats as they progress or they can’t handle the higher levels and the stats regress. Between Reading last season and Allentown this season, Hernandez has hit over .300 in more than 800 AB. That is not SSS. I’m going to conclude that they guy really can hit .300, although I’ll discount that to .275 in the majors.
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First of all, Allentown, let me give you the same challenge I gave catch – tell me, specifically, what you imagine his likely ceiling to be? What do you think he’ll do at the major league level? What is it that will make him special? I’m not trying to be difficult, I really do want to know what you guys think. I’d like to believe he can be more than I see, but I wonder just what that might be? Again, even being optimistic about his hitting, unless he suddenly demonstrates a LOT more power, and/or MUCH better contact skills, I don’t see him being even a solid regular unless his defense is elite. What part of that evaluation do you disagree with?
As for your arguments. Point by point:
(1) Yes, he had a 9% BB rate … in AAA. My point, which I admit was less clear than it should have been, is that there is no way he will sustain that against major league pitching, because hitters who lack power, even with decent to good plate discipline, don’t walk more than about 5% of the time. That’s because major league pitchers will challenge them – will not pitch them carefully like they would a hitter with some power. If you look at sub .100 ISO hitters, the very few players with average or better BB rates have exceptional plate discipline. And Hernandez looks, to me, like a guy with decent to good, but not exceptional, plate discipline. (Edit – but see below, I may be a little pessimistic here. I still don’t see him equaling his AAA rate in the majors. Say 7%, not as a projection, but as a likely ceiling)
(2) 18% K rate wouldn’t be bad for a guy with plus power. It’s terrible for a guy with no power. Make a list of major league players with comparable K rates and ISOs. You won’t find many (any? I should do a little study*) good hitters. But more to the point, an 18% K rate with no power is entirely inconsistent with being the .300 hitter that people imagine Hernandez to be. Never happened in major league history, never will.
(3) In terms of improvement, he improved in two respects: an increased BB rate and better SB efficiency. Meaningful, yes, but neither of those is overwhelming. That’s it. Zero evidence that I have seen, none, for this alleged defensive improvement. And the BA is not improvement at all – in this case, driven entirely by an unsustainable BABIP. Drop the BABIP to a still very high .340, and his BA drops to .274.. Honestly, the fact that his K rate was worse in 2013 than 2012 makes me less optimistic (by a little) about his likely major league BA.
*Just a quick look, and based just on 2013 seasonal data, which should, if anything, skew the data against my hypothesis (given SSS variance). Sub .100 ISO players, only two were above average hitters (and not by much). They had K% under 7%. One guy had an 18% K rate (Gregor Blanco). He hit .252. Even if you expand the sample to include players with ISOs a little over .100, you see a sea of mediocrity. If you want to be a little optimistic, you can look at Jon Jay. But projecting even that much power for Hernandez seems like a stretch. And every other decent comp is worse.
In fairness, though, the sample showed somewhat higher BB rates than I expected, though still mostly below average. And the few guys with above average rates tending to have MUCH better BB rates in the minors than did Hernandez, even ignoring his pre-2013 performance. e.g., Blanco again, whose AAA rate over several seasons was around 13%., I could maybe see Hernandez with a rate in the 7% range. Doesn’t much change my conclusions.
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You say that your challenge to me is to show you why Hernandez is special. Big problem — I don’t think he is special and never said he was special. I think his ceiling is as an around average MLB starting 2B. I don’t rank him higher than #12 among our prospects. So, if you want to argue with someone else on whether or not Hernandez is ‘special’, you’ll have to talk to Gregg, who picked him as his #4 prospect, or someone else who sees a higher ceiling for him than I do.
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I’m not going to go into too much detail on this, but get to what I think is the key issue: if you think that Revere’s mediocre defense this season is the “real” Revere (as opposed to prior years, where both subjective and objective measures graded him out as a plus defender), then you can make a good case for Revere not being the long term answer.
But even if that is true, that doesn’t make the positive case for Hernandez as a center fielder. He’ll contribute a little with his speed (though IMO likely less than Revere), be well below average as a hitter compared to other center fielders, and be (as a center fielder) mediocre at best defensively. Even if you can make the case that that’s better than Revere (and that case isn’t crazy, it just makes a bunch of pessimistic assumptions about Revere and optimistic assumptions about Hernandez), he still doesn’t look like an adequate center fielder to me.
If he’s a plus defender at second – much more plausible than a plus defender at a new position that he doesn’t really have the arm for – then if I squint I can see him as a regular there. But not as a center fielder.
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I’m not sure either is the answer in CF, unless we can get a full year of Revere at the level he gave us in the second half of his shortened 2013. I really don’t get your point about Revere previously being a great defender. He didn’t even play CF for Minnesota. The normal rebuttal to that is that the Twins didn’t play Revere in CF, because Span is such a great CF. I don’t know.
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He was primarily a center fielder in 2011, and played some there is 2012. On the whole about 50% of his innings as a Twin were in center field. He graded out very well using defensive metrics in 2011, and significantly better than average overall. I don’t know why Span got the job in 2012, but from a distance it looks like two plus defenders in center, only one of whom could play the position.
That said, he was mediocre in 2013, subjectively and objectively. Certainly he has the speed to play center. If reads are the issue, then maybe that’s an area where further improvement is possible. IMO the arm just isn’t a significant issue in center.
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I’d add that I read an article from Spring 2012 suggesting that Span got the center field job because of Revere’s weak arm, but that doesn’t make sense in two regards: one, a good arm is more important in right field (where Revere played that year) than in center, and two, by advanced metrics at least, Span actually has a worse arm than Revere.
Actually, those two things together almost make sense – Revere had the less bad arm, so they put him in right. No, I don’t think this was the actual logic.
IMO most likely the real reason for putting Span in center likely was the fact that he was the incumbent (injured in 2011).
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My point way back when I began this discussion…Revere vs Hernandez, was that IF Revere brings back quality in a trade, then I move him, if not he stays.
Heck, for all I know if Ceasr would not be the CF, maybe it would be a rejuvenated Gillies.
Of all the OFs, Revere has the most value in a trade (excluding Dom Brown obviously).
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I think the revere we saw from May 1 until July is the Revere we’ll get going forward. People might not think pressure is a factor but I believe it is a big factor in baseball. Revere was coming to a new team and hitting in a spot that he took from a long time lead off guy in Rollins . . Revere seemed to be pressing bc of those reasons. Once he was moved outta the lead off spot and had a chance to settle in he took off. It would be interesting to see what his totals were after May 1. I know he hit over .300 in may, June and July but what was his OBP in those months? (I’ll look) .361, .390 and .388. That would put him at around .320/.380 . . That would be the best lead off hitter we’ve had since Nails. I like Revere now and for the future.
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Yeah, no, I get it – wasn’t trying to jump on your comment, I do understand where you are coming from. I guess my response would be that MY point is that, with no decent internal options (and Gillies is IMO not even in the conversation), why create one hole just to fill another?
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Among healthy players, I thought Galvis’ year was one of the most disappointing. Two years after his offensive breakout in 2011, finally at an age-appropriate level, he turned in an awful year with the bat. Really hurts his chances to be a major league starting shortstop, which seemed a real possibility 6 months ago.
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I don’t know if it’s a regular occurrence but when I saw a spring training game against the Braves, he had the worst BP of the day by far. He just didn’t seem to be taking it seriously at all and he must have hit about 5 pop-ups in a row at one point. For a guy that needs to work at hitting, that didn’t seem like a good sign.
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Not to turn all CD on myself, but I really think Galvis is a guy who sees he has no future with the Phillies and that his minor league results reflect that fact, as CD suggests did Ruf’s.
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Even under the stated rules of this evaluation, I think Crawford merits an A+ rather than an A-. Fielded and hit well. Established himself as the (you say #3, I say #2) prospect in the organization.
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Just saying, I think we got a lot more out of the #16 pick in the draft than I expected or that I think anyone should reasonably have expected, so Crawford greatly exceeded my expectations. We were gaga over Quinn last season, and Crawford was so much better. I guess Quinn 2013 is a cautionary tale for my over exuberance, but that likely a result of SS not truly being his position. The Phillies put him there to maximize his positional value and because that’s what the organization needed at the time.
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I have Crawford #1.
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How would it play out with both Crawford and Canelo at Lakewood? Some alternating and DH’ing for Crawford and Canelo to Williamsport when that season starts?
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I wouldn’t let Roman Quinn take reps away from Crawford at SS, let alone Canelo.
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100% true. You don’t have one of the top 3 prospects in your organization DH to give a guy like Canelo playing time as SS. You just never, ever do that. To give Crawford a break once a week, sure, but beyond that no, it would be serious player development malpractice.
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I don’t think it’s an issue bear. Canelo will likely begin the year at XST and open with Williamsport when their season begins. Canelo just turned 19 a few days ago. If he does in fact open at Lakewood I would presume it to be in a complimentary role and as you mention, he then reports to Williamsport. One thing is for certain, no player in the organization is taking reps away from Crawford at SS
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I agree with all of the thinking…that’s why I was surprised with the speculation in the original post that Canelo would go to Lakewood
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If Edgar Duran goes elsewhere, who’s the AA SS next year? I doubt they could do better with a minor league FA, and there’s no prospect in house who’s ready to move up.
I agree with Ramsey about Galvis in that I’d have given him a lower grade. C- or D+ probably. I’d have liked to see an OBP over .300 in AAA.
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Handzus – I suspect Duran or Hanzawa can be resigned, else a MiLB FA. Certainly aren’t any double-jump candidates
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I agree that I was somewhat generous with Galvis.
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I’m not so sure Gregg. if we limit our view to his slash I could understand a rating of less than C-, but it’s the glove where Galvis presents most of his value and I suspect this will always be the case. Though it has been a disappointing year with the bat I feel your overall rating reflects that.
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I went to all of lakewoods games of the last week.. I wouldn’t say at all that crawford struggled he hit into alot of hard outs and he bunted quite a bit
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The hard part of the rankings and comments is that more often than not, I am going strictly by the numbers. I have seen some of these guys but far from all of them..As many games as I can get to and watch on MILB. .I appreciate the insight on Crawford.
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Agreed. The game I attended it looked like he was practicing his bunting and he hit two balls very hard for outs. He has excellent bat speed. If he filles out a little bit he could be a star. If he develops 60 power he has a chance to be an elite major league player. This guy has a chance to be our own version of Derek Jeter. He has that kind of upside. It was a great pick.
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Thanks Gregg for your analysis. The name and performance that jumped out of the middle infielders was Pullin. I remember last year when we all wondered if he could increase his value to the organization by adapting to second base. He certainly has. He gives the Phillies the possibility of a second baseman who can hit with power and for average. I pray that he can increase his walk rate. Torres is another player who distinguished himself, but the question is his age. At 21 in GCL he should be special. We will have to see how he adjusts to competition more his age with those college short-season players.
It is special to see a player like Crawford, who is an every-once-in-a-while player. Looking forward to watching them next year.
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Agree Puddinhead on Pullin. Oddly his splits vs RHP are lower then LHP.
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I feel like Cesar Hernandez’s upside is a utility player and no where close to as good a player as Revere is. Am I the only one?
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But Cesar is a switch-hitter!
And the Phillies like speedy switch-hitting players….just look at MiniMarti.
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I think his upside is higher than utility, but I think that’s likely what he ends up as. As a CF, I completely agree that Revere is far and away the better player. If Cesar is going to be a starter, it will be at 2B. He should only be a back-up/emergency CF. But it surely doesn’t hurt his stock to learn how to play it.
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Not the only one. I like Revere very much as a long-term CF option (the bad-mouthing is mostly comes from the same mentality that so totally undervalued/undervalues Michael Bourn, keeping in mind that no one is going to equal Bourn as a complete defensive CF–range, are, jump,etc.).
The endemic fallacy in most of this analysis is represented by the references to OPS; a poorly imagined stat which even if was logically coherent makes no sense with respect to leadoff & second hole in the batting order, where the relevant skills include hitting behind the runner, advancing him, sacrifice, taking the extra basee, stealing often with a high success rate; in short, scoring runs rather than driving them in.
The value of Revere & Hernandez, like J Rollins in the past, is not so much OBP even, as it is getting into scoring position. Further, If OPS accurately reflected SBs and extra bases taken (as well as extra-base hits) it would raise the OPs another hundred points plus for a player whose SB total minus CS is still 50 SB or more (Already Revere’s pace, Hernandez projecting not far short of this goal).
To dismiss Revere’s fielding prowess because of his CBP diffiuculties for a few weeks is to ignore his exceptional defense for the Twins for two seasons.
As for Hernandez, I don’t envision that he will spend much time as a CF after 2015 or 2016 (when he is a leading possibility to replace Utley), not when there are CF candidates in the system like Tocci & Altheer. Not when he gives a manager a very skilled defensive 2B.
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I agree. I dont even look at Revere’s OPS. Its all about above avg. fielding, batting avg, On Base Percentage, and SB for him.
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I don’t necessarily disagree with you conceptually about Revere. I’d note that the lack of even doubles power is a significant negative in terms of “getting into scoring position.”
While OPS is a stat I mostly ignore, more sophisticated offensive metrics, while they show a little more value that initially meets the eye, don’t really show him as a solid regular, unless he has plus defense. I’m willing to give him a mulligan on his 2013 defensive value, given past performance, but if he really is a mediocre defender, he doesn’t bring enough else to the table to be a long term answer in center field.
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Ben Revere and Ryan Howard won’t be playing for the Phillies the rest of this season but both will participate in the FIL as they come back from injuries. Howard has been down in Clearwater rehabbing his injury and Revere will go down there after the current home stand ends.“We want them to have some games played and a peace of mind and pass the test with everybody, with the organization that they are doing everything on the baseball field to play and game and now they go into their off-season and go about their business and do their normal routines, knowing in the spring they are good to go.” Phillies interim manager Ryne Sandberg said of Revere and Howard.
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The placement of Quinn next year will be interesting. I believe the organization would like him to play at Lakewood again, but Crawford will clearly be the SS, Pullin at 2B, and Tocci in CF, so by default I believe Quinn will be the SS in Clearwater. I wonder if there’s any thought in the organization to consider any of the following:
1) Move Crawford to Clearwater to start, with Quinn at SS in Lakewood, or
2) Move Tocci to Clearwater, and play Quinn in CF at Lakewood
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Or make Quinn the CF at Clearwater. Altherr may get moved up anyways.
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Why move Quinn to Clwtr in ’14? It’s not as if he did well enough in ’14. Best future SSs are Canelo and Crawford in this org. They don’t need to fill that position with Quinn. Quinn should be playing CF at Lakewood to start ’14, IMO. That’s where his “natural” game was before he was drafted. His speed would play well there and to me it seems he’d be more comfortable there.
The big club could use a speedy CFer the value of which should be 7.5 or 8 on the scouts scale. With the SSing pressure off, Quinn just might thrive in Lakewood’s center field. Making it all the more fun to follow that team in ’14.
Like a poster above said, Crawford ain’t gonna lose games or ABs to anybody in ’14. He will certainly open at Lakewood with the somewhat remote possibility to move up to Clwtr late in the season.
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I was impressed by the reports of Quinn from the Spring. It seemed like he was playing with AA guys and performing well. Although he missed part of LWD, I think Phillies will promote him to CLW. I do not see many SS options for CLW, so I could see Quinn starting with Mora a possible replacement if needed.
I’d figure the assignments may be:
LHV: Galvis and Cartwright (Hernandez is out of options)
REA: Duran and Alonso, Hanzawa
CLW: Quinn, Mora, Villalobos
LWD: Crawford, and Pullin
WPT: Canelo and Torres
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Yeah I’d be surpised if Quinn isn’t the starting SS at CLW
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People are really selling Cesar Hernandez short, he’s a heck of a little player. Many things impress me about him, and I’m even more impressed now that I’ve had a chance to see him play. What I loved about his year this year was that he got quite a bit better at many things, suggesting hes hard-working and very smart as a player. Hitting for average, drawing walks, fielding, stolen base percentage – he got a lot better at all of these things. And last night I saw someing incredibly impressive from him. In the game, he was thrown a breaking ball he wasn’t ready to hit. MID-SWING, he slowed down his bat, stayed back and drove the pitch nicely to the opposite field. It was an extraordinary piece of hitting and something only the truly best hitters can do. Just watch, Hernandez can flat out play (and all signs are that he could be just fine in centerfield too) and if they trade him, he’ll go on to rack up 3 and 4 WAR seasons at second for another team who will be thrilled that he’s theirs to keep. Hernandez is a keeper and the lack of attention he’s gotten on this site is astonishing.
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Agree to disagree I guess.
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Amen!
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I wouldn’t say he’s universally under-rated on this site. I like him a lot. Gregg likes him even more than I do. In this very thread, Gregg rated him the #4 prospect in the system. I think that’s high, but he’s legit top dozen to me and I can see that Gregg is arguably correct.
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Catch, I respect your opinions, and WANT you to be right – even want to be convinced. I don’t see it. Let me ask you: what is it that you see that makes you think he’ll be a 3 to 4 WAR player? I mean, I assume you’re talking about for a season – as a career estimate it strikes me as a good estimate. Okay, too snarky – but seriously, what do you see, concretely?
Set aside the hitting for a second. I’m thinking that, even with what would strike me as a very optimistic take on his offense, to be a 3 to 4 WAR player he would need to be a one to two wins above average defensive player. But where’s the evidence of that? Seriously, I’ve asked before and gotten no response. The people raving about his defense are – almost without exception – people who haven’t seen him play (aside from a few games at the major league level). People say things like “his defense is reportedly very good.” Reported by whom? I haven’t heard any of the buzz that usually accompanies an elite defender. Plenty of reports of “good” defense, but those kind of reports about a minor league player translate to … a major league average defender.
So that’s defense. My opinions there are basically inferences from lack of evidence – I could easily be wrong, and hope that I am. But I think I’m on firmer ground on offense. He has essentially no power. He’s not Ben Revere, but he’s probably bottom 10% in terms of power compared to major league players. His contact skills are mediocre. Yes, he has some decent – not really exceptional – BB data for the first time this season. Even if we assume (and I do agree that we can) that this represents a real improvement in plate discipline, with his lack of power that’s just not going to translate to a lot of BB at the major league level. His current numbers are a very SS, but IMO illustrative. He has shown better than average plate discipline (in terms of his o-swing%), but that hasn’t translated to many walks. Because of the SS, this isn’t PROOF that he won’t walk a lot; my point is that, because of the lack of power, it is what we should have expected to see.
So what do we have? A guy who, if we assume that he will have a very high BABIP because of speed and line drive ability, will hit .280*. But with likely mediocre BB rates and little power, that’s an empty .280. Yes, he’ll contribute on the base paths. But that looks to me more like a one WAR player than a 3 to 4 WAR player.
People compare him to Altuve. That’s actually not a bad comp, though there are differences between the two players (some of which are in Altuve’s favor, some of which are in Hernandez’ favor). But last time I looked, Altuve had 0.5 fWAR for the season. And Altuve’s 2013 season is pretty much what I expect from Hernandez, with maybe a bit better defense (and a slightly different road tot he same BA – a worse K rate but a higher BABIP).
*I’m assuming you aren’t one of the people who think he can be a .300 hitter? If he became a career .300 hitter with an 18% K rate and no power, he’d be the first. As in, first ever, in major league history. I tend not to jump on BABIP rates, and Herneandez is a guy who might well end up with a well above average BABIP, but .382? Come on.
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I’m guessing he turns out being a .270/.300/.350 major leaguer. 20 stolen bases, more power than Revere but not by much (less than 5 HRs at any season). He is more of a good utility player imo. If he improves again in the minors next year I may change my mind
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BA rated him the best defensive infielder in the organization after 2012, the best defensive 2B in the FSL after 2011 and best defensive 2B in the Eastern league after 2012. I’m not sure how well that translates to the majors, but to me it doesn’t seem like a stretch to say he’d be at least above average.
I like him, but I see him as a 7th/8th hitter or, if he gets a little stronger and drives the ball a little more, an alright #2 hitter. That’d be if he maxes out his potential though. I don’t think he’s a leadoff guy and I agree about his power right now.
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Okay, good, some data – still doesn’t sound elite, and just one data point. But yeah, that moves the needle slightly in the direction of him being a successful regular.
It’s mostly a moot point for the next couple of years, as I don’t buy the case for center field at all. IMO (assuming they get an extra option year for him) he should be in AAA next year to get as much playing time as possible, instead of sitting on the bench in Philadelphia.
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If they do get the extra year, I could see him being a guy who shuttles up and down. I like that he’s pretty much got a full year of AAA under his belt, plus a little major league experience. So I don’t think time on the bench would be too bad for him, unlike Galvis who hasn’t had much consistent playing time since he graduated AA.
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I will say that I see him a potentially a heck of a bench guy – and certainly it’s POSSIBLE that he’ll have a steep upward development curve that will lead him to be more. You CERTAINLY don’t trade the guy – even my lesser evaluation of him is above his perceived market value.
IMO, aside from the defense question – one which I may be wrong on, and would be happy to be wrong on – the other scenario where I see him as a potential regular is if he develops a little power. Not a lot, but say 10 HR a season and a .140 ISO. IMO that increases his value significantly – not just directly, but indirectly, probably a higher BB rate as well.
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I agree that he is young enough to think he might get slightly better but there is not much projection left. Without being passable at SS though, limits his bench value.
I think he’d be an average to below average 2B and a below average CF but above replacement level at both. With Utley a high health risk and Mayberry not a great CF option he has a useful place on the bench as a pinch hitter/runner. It is possible that Hernandez in CF and Revere in RF to end game would be better than leaving Ruf or Mayberry out there.
With the uncertainty in CF still (Mayberry is not very good, Gillies unlikely, Collier nope, and Altherr too far away) I’d be very surprised if Phillies traded away Revere.
However, if Phillies signed Choo or Ellsbury then trading Revere and having Hernandez as the backup CF with Mayberry might be enough to start the season.
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Truly…..’he’d be an average to below average 2B ‘….exactly what do you think Chase Utley’s rep was in 2003 for a 2nd baseman at age 24? Future Gold Glover candidate? Me thinks not.
Hernandez at this comparative point in his and Utley’s past age development is if not equal, could actually be better.
Utlyey worked hard to get where he currently is but coming in he was not considered an elite defender.
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Firstly, I think he meant overall player, not just defense.
Secondly, don’t EVER use Utley as a comp. Ever. For one because he is a HOF caliber player. But mostly, because the career path he took is so ridiculously unlikely to repeat itself that comparing anyone to him just means you are desperate to find a person who can give you any shred of hope for a player. If you are that desperate, then the person you are comparing to Utley has no realistic chance of becoming whatever it is you are arguing he can become. It’s like hoping Ryan Howard will show up next year and have 70 grade speed. Not technically impossible, but if you expect it to happen you might need to be tested for insanity.
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Name one other example of a player doing something like what Utley did.
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Utley greatly improved defensively from the time he was drafted. A lot of that was hard work on the mechanics and a good deal was learning to be great at positioning himself prior to the pitch. Utley could always hit. The word on draft day was that his was the best collegiate bat in the draft.
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Actually, the improvement of Ruf defensively in the outfield is as great an accomplishment as Utleys, although clearly from a much lower starting level to a much lower final level, although he might continue to improve. Who improves that much defensively I don’t know, but I doubt Utley is unique and we tend to think just of Phillies. Certainly nobody thought Ryne Sandberg would be a great defensive 2B; Dallas Green was just hoping he would be at least passable there. In greatly boosting one’s general stock from AA up to the bigs, I think the Carlos Ruiz story is a lot more dramatic than the Chase Utley story. I’m not big at all on comps. To me, all they show is that something is not impossible. They really speak hardly at all to probability.
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I disagree. Utley was basically universally thought of as a 1B. He became elite defensively at 2B. I’d say, conservatively, that’s a jump of 4 full grades in defense (3 to 7), more likely 5 or maybe even 6 (I’d say his defense graded out as an 8 in his prime. It just depends on whether scouts thought he initially was a 2 or 3). Remember, 4 is below average, but a player with a special bat can stick at a position while they have below average defense (see: Cabrera, Miguel). So if scouts were CONVINCED he had to move off of 2B, and no one ever doubted his bat, it meant he was a 3 or lower defensive player.
Now that means that Ruf either would have to be a higher defensive player (which is not the case even if you believe it is possible to score higher than Utley), or he had to start significantly lower. I have no hesitation in throwing a 2 on his initial (perceived?) OF defense. So if we go with Utley’s conservative jump, that means Ruf needs to be at a 6 to equal Utley. I’m very comfortable in saying he is not above average. I wouldn’t even call him average. I’d say giving him higher than a 4 is being generous. But for the sake of argument, we’ll say he is average. A jump of 2 to 5 is not as pronounced as a jump of 3 to 7.
And keep in mind, that was all with the best possible inputs, and that it’s likely Ruf was more of a 3 to 4 transition while Utley was more likely a 3 to 8 transition.
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Phillies never considered Utley as a 1B defensively. Always 2B or 3B. That’s what they drafted him for. It was thought at time of draft that he’d be below average defensively as an MLB 2B, but Phillies never saw him as having to move to 1B.
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I’m not saying the Phillies thought of him that way. Outside scouts did, though. The Phillies also thought Jiwan James would be a pitcher, Joe Savery would be a pitcher, a hitter, and then a pitcher again (his current role, obviously), and that Quinn would be a SS (still could happen). The point being, the team drafts and develops players at the position that gives them (the team) the best value and try to make it work. That doesn’t mean the team is right and outside scouts are wrong. The Phils lucked out (or just had some really, REALLY good insight) with Utley. They aren’t always right, and usually it’s the consensus that is closer to being correct.
Which means, at time of drafting, Utley’s defense was bad enough to move off of 2B even though he had a special bat. Which, as I said by my estimates, would grade out as a 3 or lower. If you think of another player that has gone from a 3 or lower at the age of 20+* and gone on to be a 7+ defender, let me know. Because I certainly can’t think of anyone.
*I chose 20+ because a lot of drafted high schoolers will be rated as 3 or lower due to rawness, but Chase was not raw as of his draft, nor is Cesar raw now.
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Although he had an inauspicious SSS debut in the GCL, we really don’t know whether or not Jiwan James could have made it as a pitcher. So we don’t know if the Phillies’ assessment of him was wrong. He stopped being a pitcher because he hurt his arm.
Utley was never awful as a 2B. He was an adequate defensive 2B in a big school program. He just wasn’t good enough defensively to be sure he could stick at 2B all the way to the bigs. I think a more accurate way to think of it is to think of Quinn, who was ok at SS, but is having problems in the pros and is quite possibly not able to stick at SS all the way to MLB. I don’t think Utley was ever Asche-unsuccessful at defensive 2B.
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Pete Rose
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Agree catch……CH reminds me of Jose Altuve of the ‘Stros. Hoping he measure up to something like that.
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Catch22:
Even Mr Heller would agree that Cesar is well worth hanging on to. Though I won’t attempt to list 22 positive talents that boost him, nevertheless he was “The Candidate” for ’14 if Utley was not re-signed.
He has the approach similar to Asche with a lot less power. But he brings offense to the top of the lineup with his ability to get on base AND threatening to steal 2nd that pitchers will well notice. He should be our lead-off hitter. Calculated to annoy pitchers to throw fast balls to the hitter when he is on base. Advantage: the hitter who can expect more fast balls and fewer breaking pitches. Helps him to realize what is likely coming.
His fielding is superior at 2nd base; covers a lot more ground than Utley right now.
He has proceeded up the system, seemingly learning well all the way. With the kind of tools he displays, I had hoped that Utley would not be resigned. A part of a necessary youth movement for this franchise.
If/when Utley goes down he will be able to step right in without pause. With Chase’s injury history, Cesar is a NECESSITY to the team. Meanwhile, learning CF over the winter makes him even more valuable. His apparent progress in learning this “new” position shows what a fine athlete he is. A replacement “ready” if Revere goes down again.
And a fine pinch hitter and pinch runner.
There, to me, is no doubt what a valuable “property” he is. And young (23?) enough to continue progress so long as he get enough ABs. His future is better for possible power than Revere’s who is a slap and tittle hitter. Cesar has more power strength which he will, IMO, gain more over a few seasons and will be firmly ready to take over when Chase leaves…or before if Utley goes on the DL.
Valuable athlete and valuable player. Unappreciated because we have gotten used to see Chase’s power at 2nd base which is rare in MLB’s history. A middle infielder’s first job is to man the center part of the diamond and AFTER that is satisfied, become valuable in the lineup to aid the offense some. Cesar fits that role to a “T.”
Value him. A fine success for the scout signing and coaches developing his manifold skills.
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I’ve been busy for the last day or so (and am again today at work), but I LOVE how much debate my comments have sparked. I enjoy reading what people say and I learn a lot by just taking it all in and reflecting on it. I especially enjoy hearing from the advanced metric crowd because I learn a lot of new things from you folks.
To answer Larry in part (Larry, you did use some statistics in a selective manner, which was not quite like you for instance, scoffing at his high AAA BABIP percentage – which was completely fair – while selectively citing his higher than usual AAA K% while downplaying his growing AAA BB% – neither of which was entirey fair to Cesar. Larry you also scoffed at Cesar’s defense asking where that assessment came from, but Cesar has long been hailed as a plus infield defender and I’ve seen nothing to suggest that those evalutaions were wrong or inflated), my optimism is based on a combination of his burgeoning statistical improvements (and not just his improvements generally, but the fact that they were significant and across the board) and, just as much (perhaps more), my personal observations of the player. I see a player who is probably going to be a 1-1.5 WAR fielder – probably not less and perhaps a bit more. If he’s a 1.5 WAR fielder (and I think he easily could be), he’s not going to need a ton of offensive ability to be a 3 WAR player, and I see in him a guy who is getting significantly better at being a high percentage player – drawing more walks, being successful on more of his steal attempts, improving his batting average, working pitchers, hitting the ball hard to the opposite field, waiting on breaking pitches, working on fielding, etc. . . . I also see in him a surprisingly strong and solid body that I think will develop some power. Not a lot mind you, but 5-7 homer power with fairly solid double and triple power – enough to keep pitchers honest, which is more than Ben Revere can say.
Now, do I view Cesar as a likely star? Probably not, because he almost certainly will never hit for a lot of power, but he can still do a ton of damage and help the team quite a bit, even if he never hits 10 homers or hits for a.300 average. He’s just sort of a classic below-the-radar player that good teams always seem to develop. And if you want a comp., a very early career Placido Polanco is a good one. Take a look at Polanco’s 2000 2001 seasons for the Cardinals – I’m envisioning that kind of season for Hernandez, except I think his average will be worse but he will draw more walks. And by the way, check out Polanco’s minor league numbers – very similar to Hernandez and, in fact, Hernandez’s numbers might be better.
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I’ve been busy and thus withdrawing from the community. Let me just address this:
Defense – I’ve come around a little on defense, but I think you’re going well beyond the evidence here. One to two WAR defensively (as you know, for the individual components of WAR, the comparison is to an average player, so that’s one to two wins above average) is elite defense, gold glove defense, and I don’t see any reason to project that for him. There are just two second basemen in baseball this season with more than one defensive WAR. Using fWAR, .5 WAR defensively would, this season, make him the seventh ranked defender among second basemen this season; even that seems a little aggressive, but okay, give him that. But 1 to 2 WAR seems wildly optimistic.
Offense – I do accept the increased plate discipline as real, I just question the extent to which the BB rate is transferable to the major leagues. You want to argue that we should look at his career K%, rather than his 2013 K%, you have sort of a point – but if you want to claim his BB improvement as real, then it seems to me you need to at least consider the K% increase as possibly real, at least in part. That works both ways. But even going with his career rate, for a guy without any power, it’s still mediocre. Let me ask you specifically – what do you expect his BA to be in the majors? Even making optimistic assumptions about his BABIP and K%, you’re still int he .280 to .285 range. Couple that with no power and a realistic BB rate – no, a 9% AAA BB rate, especially for a guy with no power does not translate into a 9% major league BB rate … that’s … well, we come back to Altuve. I agree that is a good comp, just not one that makes me enthusiastic about him as a prospect.
So where does that leave us? Unless he takes a big step forward in terms of power, or truly is an elite defender, something I’ve seen NO evidence of, even making fairly optimistic assumptions, that’s a 1.5 WAR player. I said one WAR last time; I’m not changing that, simply factoring in a tad more optimism on his hitting.
I appreciate the mention of Polanco as an illustration, but I think that just points out how optimistic the 3 to 4 WAR prediction for Hernandez is. Polanco in his prime had elite contact skills – much better than even an optimistic take on Hernandez – more power than Hernandez, not a lot of power but more than Hernandez, and elite, not just very good defense. If you make every possible optimistic assumption about Hernandez development, his ceiling I guess would still be below Polanco in his prime. I could imagine him developing as much power, and maybe even the defense. But contact skills aren’t very mutable; he’s never going to be a 6.8% K rate player. Double that in the majors is probably a very optimistic estimate. Now, yes, I do see that you acknowledge that Hernandez average will be worse – though you may underestimate how much worse. But you assume more BB … Polanco in his prime, if you look at the plate discipline stats, had VERY good plate discipline. But only a 5.4% BB rate to show for it, because of his lack of power. I think Hernandez would be a little better, but not enough so to make up for the lower BA. (To get technical here, and somewhat counter-intuitively, for reasons too long to get into, Hernandez’ worse contact rate would actually, all else equal, lead to a slightly better BB rate, all else equal.)
All THAT said, he doesn’t have to be a 3 to 4 WAR player to be valuable, even as a regular. I am still a skeptic that he could even be a 2 to 3 WAR player, but it is possible and I can see a path to it (basically adding a little power, and/or exhibiting elite defense.
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Good food for thought, thanks Larry. 3 to 4 probably is overly optimistic. I probably should have said 2.5-3.5, which would make him a nice little player and very, very deserving of a top 4-9 billing in our prospects list because his floor is so much higher than many of our other prospects. Also remember that a lot of my optimism about Hernandez has to do with my personal observations of the player. In other words, I see a guy who I think has the ability to improve more than a look at his statistics would suggest. I’m not saying we should ignore the statistics – far from it. Just that I think his stats don’t tell the full story of what this guy might become.
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Catch…your post reminds me of the time when Casey Stengal was managing the Mets in 1966 or so and was watching a young 20-year catcher named Greg Goossen in spring training and said, ‘ in ten years this kid has a great chance to be thirty’,
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It’s a very funny quote, but I guess I’m kind of missing how it applies to Hernandez. I wasn’t damning him with feint praise if that’s what you mean. I like him a lot.
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Yeah, I sense that explains part (most?) of our differing views on the kid. And I hope you’re right! Fortunately we’ll probably get to see it play out on the Phillies, as he is too valuable for them to discard, but probably not valuable enough (In terms of perceived market value) to be much of a trade chip.
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Yeah, Larry, I think that’s right – he’s worth more than his trade value for sure.
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I look forward to the CF discussion in three years when it could between Tocci and Quinn!
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Question for Gregg: I see Cesar Hernandez’s strengths and after observing him for two years in person, like him as a player and thing has gotten better over those two seasons. Still, I also see the weaknesses discussed in this thread (of which defense certainly is not one), especially lack of power. After you concluded your paragraph on him by saying it wasn’t clear where he fit with the Phillies, I was surprised to see that you rated him #4 in the Phillies organization. Can you discuss what you see in him to rate him this highly. Even for one like myself, who downgrades Morgan and Biddle for the year they have had and the actual/possible injury issue, I have to go Franco, Crawford, Gonzalez (the Cuban) — so Hernandez at #4 puts him ahead of a lot of promising guys, whose future seems clearer. The Phillies recent move of Hernandez to CF makes it look like they see him as a rather strange utility guy who plays basically just 2B and CF.
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allentown……the Phillies may see CH as the everyday 2nd baseman when Chase’s new contract is over. He will be 25/26 then.
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Hernandez is going to be the new minimart guy. Can play center, 2nd, maybe some other infield positions in a pinch.
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I took the reference to him not fitting with the Phillies as referring to 2B (Utley) and CF (Revere). He sort of makes a strange platoon player. Obviously, it would be better if he could play another INF position or corner OF but he doesn’t appear to have the arm for either.
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Actually the reference was not to him ‘not fitting’, but where will he fit at the major league level. With Utley signed thru 2015 and vested 2016, Hernandez could be starting at 2nd at 26 in 2016 or 27 (’17).
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Yes I feel Hernandez could be the everyday 2b when Utley needs to be replaced. There isn’t another obvious player in the system yet and we don’t know what their other options will be acquiring a 2b outside the system and how much better those options would be than him.
One thing I like despite his lack of HR power, is he has always gotten a decent number of triples. Caveat is we really don’t know exactly what we have in him yet as a major leaguer.
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I wish that i could understand the lack of respect Hernandez gets, he is a good fielding second basemen, has really good speed and is hitting over 300 in triple a, This all based on someone feeling on numbers he doesnt have enough power. bull, he has some real good tools. I am amaze at the way people look at prospect on here, Its all about numbers, not watching the kid play, amazing when did baseball turn into not enough line drives, too many ground balls, if he can field, run and hit for average that isnt good enough, amazingr
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Baseball has always been “not enough line drives, too many ground balls…”, it’s just that we’ve only (relatively) recently started acknowledging that as what it is. Line drives are produced by hitting the ball well. Ground balls are hit less well. It stands to reason that a person who hits more line drives than average will be more likely to succeed, while a person who hits more ground balls than average will be less likely to succeed. These are universal truths about baseball. Outside of a HR, a line drive is the best possible outcome of a ball in play because it turns into a hit MUCH more often than a GB or FB. GB turn into hits at a higher rate than FB, but a FB can turn into a HR, so the benefit of those two things are tied more heavily into other tools (speed and power, respectively). But still, no matter what tools a player has, a LD is the desired outcome for a hitter.
All that out of the way, (almost) no one is saying Hernandez is a bad player or a bad prospect. But if you’re expecting him to be an all-star, well that seems extremely unlikely given his skill set.
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I don’t believe anyone suggested he would be an All Star. Just as nobody has suggested that Revere will be an All Star or that the Phillies have anyone on the horizon who will be an All Star at 2B as Utley fades.
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I have Franco as my top Phillies prospect, and I’m not expecting him to be an AS 3B or 1B, either. We have to get away from the notion that all prospects who aren’t going to be All Stars are to be written off.
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I think your last sentence is correct, and that’s why I’m sincerely pressing you guys to convince me that he could be more than I see. I really am not going to be convinced that he’ll be a 3 to 4 WAR player (which would be a borderline all star; obviously anything is possible, and if EVERYTHING breaks right for him that could happen, but the chances are less than filling an inside straight). But I could be convinced that he’ll be a 2 to 2.5 WAR player, which has real value. I’m NOT convinced, but I’d like to be. Even if he is a plus (but not elite) defender, I don’t see his offense as being good enough for that. But I’d like to be wrong.
That said, I think two things are going on with people being somewhat dismissive of players that don’t project to be stars. The first is the sense that a player whose ceiling is a solid regular isn’t a terribly exciting prospect. The opportunity cost of giving a player a real shot at a job as a regular is high enough that you would prefer – when possible, it isn’t always – to give such a shot to a player with a higher ceiling. The second is the sense that the team going forward isn’t going to contend without a couple of stars. Not saying it’s entirely right, because I DO believe that league average, cost controlled players have a lot of value.
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Of course the team is going to need a couple of stars to be a serious contender. I don’t think anyone denies that. So, they need 3-4 stars. That means they also need another 10 or so guys who are simply average to a little better than average. It’s a plus just to add one of those 10 guys. If that guy is really cheap, that allows you to buy a star. We already have Hamels and Brown as stars going forward. I can see Crawford projecting as a star — long way to go and many possible slips along the way.
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Not really disagreeing with you.
For me the skepticism about Hernandez is that I see his ceiling being a solid regular, with the most likely outcome being less than that. Still a player of some value who could grow into more. You’re right, a contender needs players like that.
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But if, OTOH, the comparisons to Altuve are correct – meh, I’ll pass. Altuve is not someone I’d want as a regular on a contending team.
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I think Asche has a very remote chance of becoming an all star at 2B.
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As of today, Asche can’t even play 2B.
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Let me ask a question if you factor in 15 more line drives into herdandez numbers how much does that change his stats. What does a blooper count as? How about if a guy bunts for 10 hits a year., that doesnt change his numbers big time. you cant just judge a player based on numbers only, you must see him play. is a ball hit like a bullet that one hops into the outfield a line drive or a gb?? just wondering, there are things you cant account for in these numbers, when did the game of baseball become, computer science.? Sometimes i just dont understand ,you cant say this kid isnt going to be a allstar, that is nuts, what skills keep him from being a allstar second basemen. lack of power, that would be bull. if he hits for average and fields well and runs well. which he is very capable of then it could happen. I just cant see your argument based on the good improvement this kid has had this year in triple a . he has tools,
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Yes roccom, he does have tools. but are they or will they consistently produce the desired results or outcome one would want?
IMO, he could be a solid player, not an All-Star, but a contributor and very good utility guy until Utley retires or moves on and then he will get his chance for a regular role sometime in 2016 or so.
But by then a guy named Roman Quinn could be knocking on the door at second base and Cesar will be in another dogfight to win the starters position.
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I can understand why you rebel against those who say he can’t be a good MLB starting 2B. He does have skills and if you see him play in a lot of games, you certainly did recognize him as a very solid and consistent AA and AAA 3B, just as I did when I saw him in person. What I don’t understand, however, is your insistence here that he is a future All Star. I liked him as a player but cannot honestly say that I looked at him and saw future All Star, nor do his stats suggest that. He just doesn’t stand out in the way that Franco stood out. Or Howard. Or Ruiz. Or even Asche. You ask what is missing. Power is important and it is missing. It actually declined as he moved from AA to AAA and wasn’t all that good in AA. An AS 2B is expected to do more than just hit for average and field well. Defensively, he arm strength is an issue. Not a big issue at 2B, but one that prevents him from being an adequate utility IF. That’s why he was tried in CF. That seems an effort to make him more than just a guy who can back up 2B, while Utley is still with the club. Looking at his AA and AAA stats, which is a lot of AB, it’s quite clear that he is a .780 OPS minor leaguer. That hasn’t improved. He’s age-appropriate, but not super young for his level. I think, projecting him as an MLB starter, you have to discount his OPS (As I would do for any minor leaguer, since MLB pitching and fielding is simply better), so let’s say he would become a .750 OPS MLB starting 2B. To me, with good D, that’s a starter, not an All Star. Chase Utley is an All Star and Hernandez shows no signs of becoming close to Chase Utley quality — I was tempted to say not remotely close, but that might be unfair. You talk about his speed. He’s fast, but certainly not elite fast. He has stolen a fair number of bases with a good success rate this season, but he has done a lot of his damage with delayed steals. This may be my shortsightedness, but I view the delayed steal as a not-quite-trick-play that is a lot likelier to work with minor leaguers than in MLB, so in my mind I have to greatly discount his steals.
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I really think you place way too much emphasis upon batting average. We have a lot better stats than that. I realize there are better stats than OPS, but I like it because I don’t have to worry about how someone did their adjustments to get OPS+. It iincludes walks and incorporates power. Some say it incorporates power too much, but I think power does produce scoring and, unlike iso, SLG includes singles so OPS is already weighted more towards obp than towards iso. It’s fallible, but it’s a quick short hand that covers a heck of a lot more than batting average. If you compare Hernandez’s OPS to that of guys who became consistent All Star caliber players at 2B, I think you’ll find that he doesn’t measure up. I say that as someone who really hates comps and doesn’t ever use them, but a .780 OPS in the Eastern League or even in AAA isn’t something to get super excited about, and that is the best that Hernandez has done.
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Jake Diekman has gained velocity on his fastball every month. His average velocity this season is 96.7 m.p.h. It was 95.7 m.p.h. in 2012. He is throwing it even harder since Aug. 11; a 0.77 ERA in his last 12 games has coincided with a 97.3-m.p.h. average fastball. Throws his slider with a harder bite. The average velocity on that pitch has increased by more than 2 m.p.h. from 2012 to 2013. He said he reached a better understanding of the kinetics involved with throwing from the side.
….possible 8th inning guy or closer in 2014?
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He already is an 8th inning guy! To be the closer he would have to show consistency and the team would have to move or demote Paps – i dont think that will happen next year, but I could be wrong.
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