2011 MLB Draft, Day 1 Post

Well kids, its here, one of my favorite days of the year. The Phillies do not have a first round pick, but they do pick in the compensation round and then have 2 picks in the 2nd round, which will start tomorrow. MLB Network will provide some kind of coverage tonight, which I’m sure will disappoint. Last year, the real draft expert Jim Callis barely got a word in while guys who have no clue who these prospects are talked for the duration of the show. I’m sure it will be more of the same this year, but lets be real, we’re all going to watch. Coverage starts at 6PM EDT, but I believe that is just the preview, as the actual draft starts at 7PM. Post all of your rumors and last minute wishes here. I stated my preference in yesterday’s notebook, but in case you don’t want to re-read it, my “wishlist” for pick #39 is

1. Tyler Goeddel, 3B/OF (St. Francis HS, CA)
2. Jackie Bradley Jr, OF (South Carolina)
3. Andrew Chafin, LHP (Kent State)
4. Nick Delmonico, INF (Farragut HS, TN)
5. Trevor Story, SS (Irving HS, TX)

It should be fun. It always is.

#39 Phillies

Full first round/sandwich round below the fold

01. Pittsburgh – Gerrit Cole, RHP (UCLA)
02. Seattle – Danny Hultzen, LHP (UVA)
03. Arizona – Trevor Bauer, RHP (UCLA)
04. Baltimore – Dylan Bundy, RHP (Oswasso HS, OK)
05. Kansas City – Bubba Starling, OF (Gardner-Edgerton HS, KS)
06. Washington – Anthony Rendon, 3B (Rice)
07. Arizona – Archie Bradley, RHP (Broken Arrow HS, OK)
08. Cleveland – Francisco Lindor, SS (Montverde Academy, FL)
09. Chicago Cubs – Javier Baez, SS (Arlington Country Day School, FL)
10. San Diego – Cory Spangenberg, 2B (Indian River State College, FL)
11. Houston – George Springer, OF (UCONN)
12. Milwaukee – Taylor Jungmann, RHP (Texas)
13. New York Mets – Brandon Nimmo, OF (Cheyenne East HS, WY)
14. Florida – Jose Fernandez, RHP (Braulio Alonso HS, FL)
15. Milwaukee – Jed Bradley, LHP (Georgia Tech)
16. LA Dodgers – Chris Reed, LHP (Stanford)
17. LA Angels – CJ Cron, 1B (Utah)
18. Oakland – Sonny Gray, RHP (Vanderbuilt)
19. Boston – Matt Barnes, RHP (UCONN)
20. Colorado – Tyler Anderson, LHP (Oregon)
21. Toronto – Tyler Beede, RHP (Lawrence Academy, MA)
22. St Louis – Kolton Wong, 2B (Hawaii)
23. Washington – Alex Meyer, RHP (Kentucky)
24. Tampa Bay – Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (Spring Valley HS, SC)
25. San Diego – Joe Ross, RHP (Bishop O’Dowd HS, CA)
26. Boston – Blake Swihart, C (V. Sue Cleveland HS, NM)
27. Cincinnati – Robert Stephenson, RHP (Alhambra HS, CA)
28. Atlanta – Sean Gilmartin, LHP (Florida State)
29. San Francisco – Joe Panik, SS (St Johns)
30. Minnesota – Levi Michael, SS (UNC)
31. Tampa Bay – Mikie Mahtook, OF (LSU)
32. Tampa Bay – Jake Hager, SS (Sierra Vista HS, LV)
33. Texas – Kevin Matthews, LHP (Richmond Hill HS, GA)

34. Washington – Brian Goodwin, OF (Miami Dade JC, FL)
35. Toronto – Jacob Anderson, OF (Chino HS, CA)
36. Boston – Henry Owens, LHP (Edison HS, CA)
37. Texas – Zach Cone, OF (Georgia)
38. Tampa Bay – Brandon Martin, SS (Santiago HS, CA)
39. Philadelphia – Larry Greene Jr, OF (Berrien County HS, GA)
40. Boston – Jackie Bradley, OF (South Carolina)
41. Tampa Bay – Tyler Goeddel, 3B (St Francis HS, CA)
42. Tampa Bay – Jeff Ames, RHP (Lower Columbia College, WA)
43. Arizona – Andrew Chafin, LHP (Kent State)
44. New York Mets – Michael Fulmer, RHP (Deer Creek HS, OK)
45. Colorado – Trevor Story, SS (Irving HS, TX)
46. Toronto – Joe Musgrove, RHP (Grossmont HS, CA)
47. Chicago White Sox – Keenyn Walker, OF (Central Arizona College)
48. San Diego – Michael Kelly, RHP (West Boca Raton HS, FL)
49. San Francisco – Kyle Crick, RHP (Sherman HS, TX)
50. Minnesota – Travis Harrison, 3B (Tustin HS, CA)
51. New York Yankees – Dante Bichette, 3B (Orangewood Christian HS, FL)
52. Tampa Bay – Blake Snell, LHP (Shorewood HS, WA)
53. Toronto – Dwight Smith Jr, OF (McIntosh HS, GA)
54. San Diego – Brett Austin, C (Providence HS, NC)
55. Minnesota – Hudson Boyd, RHP (Bishop Verot HS, FL)
56. Tampa Bay – Kes Carter, OF (Western Kentucky)
57. Toronto – Kevin Comer, RHP (Seneca HS, NJ)
58. San Diego – Jace Peterson, SS (McNeese State)
59. Tampa Bay – Grayson Garvin, LHP (Vanderbuilt)
60. Tampa Bay – James Harris, OF (Oakland Tech HS, CA)

349 thoughts on “2011 MLB Draft, Day 1 Post

  1. Three picks first two rounds. Deep draft. Potential two starters, one possible AS? A day to dream.

  2. I knew Tampa had a ton of early picks but when you see all 10 of them listed there its quite a shock. They can really hedge their bets with high and low risk guys.

    1. I agree, that’s a lot of early picks. You could set up a team for years with a good draft like this.

    2. Man you are right Tampa should be loaded to the gills with good prospects, even if 50% of them pan out that’s some really good numbers. I wish the Phils had that but to think that Tampa may want to unload some cause they don’t have the payroll to support more than 3 or 4. We’ll see! GOPHILS WSC 2011!!!

  3. I’ll miss the draft tonight due to attending the Toledo/Scranton game tonight. Is it first round and supplemental today?

    1. Basically, for Phillies fans, tonight is the cherry on the cake; tomorrow is the cake.

    1. Not realistic for the Phillies.

      Hes a DE sophomore with 2 years of eligibility, plus a $4-5M asking price.

      Pitchers with bum shoulders should be avoided unless the cost makes the gamble a no brainer. $4M is far from a no brainer.

  4. I’m definitely interested in the draft this year, especially since I will be spending the summer with the Crosscutters as a live-in beat reporter/website writer. Hopefully hanging out with the real Phils of the future is fun!

  5. Totally Pumped, Just a question though…sorta off topic

    I feel like BB are over-rated. They’re some where around 1/3 as important from my perspective becuase they just don’t advance the runners (without someone on 1st and even then never more then 1 base) or score runs without the bases loaded.

    So when you’re looking at a stat like SecA or OPS I feel like it should take that into account. So maybe OPS should be something like this OPS = (OBP – Average * (1/3))+Average + Slugging.

    What does everyone else think, and if you can, justify why a walk should be considered as important as a hit.

    1. A walk is not as important as a hit. It is far, far better than an out however. Advanced metrics take this into consideration and even linear weights which are 30-40 years old give higher credit to a single than a walk. They create more runs. But walks are not worthless. Besides adding value, they provide an indication of how a minor leaguer will handle advanced pitching.

      As far as the stats, the appeal of SecA and OPS is their simplicity. You can do a dozen things to any stat to make them more accurate. Add baserunning data, park factors, linear weights, etc. But in gaining that accuracy you turn the statistic into something impossible to comprehend.

      1. True, but walks alone are not an indicator without considering contact rate. Becuase as long as you can put the ball in play, it was a better decision then taking a pitch (you can’t get a hit or a double or a home run without making contact). The concern, and this really boils down to the Valle discussion in earlier posts, does a lack of walks matter if you rarely strike out?

        1. Well it still matters, yes, but it matters less. But that’s why PP considers SecA AND K rate. Of course Valle’s contact rate is mediocre, so the low BB rate matters for him a lot. Especially given that (this year) it is not just low but off the charts low.

          Setting aside this particular method, I’d like to see BB/K ratio entered into the discussion more frequently. The ratio IMO gives a clearer picture than considering K and BB rates separately.

          (Parenthetically, the idea that Valle’s low BB totals are some sort of consequence of how well he is hitting, or how well he is seeing the ball, or whatever, runs counter to a lot of evidence. Players scorching the ball generally get more BB, not less. Especially in A ball, you know that a lot of the pitchers facing him don’t have good control, he HAS to be swinging at a lot of balls out of the strike zone, even if he isn’t being pitched carefully, which at this stage I doubt. Likely given his results he’s still getting a lot of hits off those out of the strike zone pitches, but IMO he is picking up some poor habits – he won’t be able to duplicate that over the long run versus good pitching. I’d be less concerned about this if his K data was better, but it’s mediocre.

      2. “Besides adding value, they provide an indication of how a minor leaguer will handle advanced pitching.”

        That’s really a key point. To build on that, when evaluating minor leaguers, you need a whole different mindset – when looking at minor league statistics, the question isn’t “how valuable is that player to his team,” but “what do his stats say about his potential going forward?” In that regard, I would argue that BBs are a MORE important indicator that hits. Hit totals (and thus BA) for a minor leaguer especially are much more subject to random factors (e.g., fielding prowess or lack thereof of opponents) than are BBs. It’s not irrelevant, but we have contact data as well (Ks) which tells you a lot more about whether a player is going to hit for average in the majors. Add line drive/ground ball/fly ball data into the mix, and HR data to a limited extent, and really you have all you need to evaluate a minor league prospect’s BA potential without even looking at his minor league BA/hit data.

        On the larger question, between OPS and SecA, neither is perfect but yes SecA is a better metric for minor leaguers when combined with K data.

    2. Asking this question on this thread is like walking into a bar in Cleveland, right before first pitch in the Indians game, and asking: “Why don’t you have the NBA finals on?”

      1. Yeah, sorry for my responses, I just clicked on a “recent comment” and replied, didn’t even realize which thread I was on until it was too late.

  6. Although it sucks that we don’t have a 1st Rounder this year, the Phillies should still have a lot of good options to look over, especially since this years draft is said to be the deepest in years. The Phillies have had some remarkable signings in later rounds in the past few years, but it’ll be interesting to see what they decide to do for the first few rounds in 2011. With hard slotting potentially coming in the next CBA, the Phillies may be willing to spend a little more freely this year…but I guess we’ll see!

  7. I will admit I have no knowledge of the abilities of the draft eligible players. I could not give you a single specific name on my wishlist. I begin to assess the players only after the Phillies draft and hopefully continue after they begin to play in the system. That being said, I can only say that I am hopeful that the emphasis is on the position players and in particular middle infielders and 3b’s with some nice offensive upside. I don’t know who, where from, HS or College, but just hope that is a focus. It seems that outfield and pitching have been an emphasis for a few years now. Of course, pitching is always welcome, but we could also use some cheap high quality infield replacements in the not too distant future. In fact, they might even be a little late in providing replacements through this drafts. Looking forward to it at any rate.

  8. I’d love to see the Phils go for some legit middle infield prospects, but I know that the general feeling is that you don’t draft according to need.

    Besides, it seems to me that the Phils have an approach/philosophy that has been working for the past few years, so go with it.

    – Jeff

  9. I’m willing to bet the pick is Comer at #39. He’s the one guy I don’t want from the names being mentioned.

    1. I am with you on this, given the last 2 couple years, my expectations are low (Comer) even though I still hold out hope.

  10. Forgetting the Phillies for the moment…how much does Tampa Bay spend this year with 10 picks in the Top 60 and 15 picks in the Top 200?

    Over the last 3 years, the Nationals spent the most in any one season with $11,927,200 in 2008. The Rays could spend that with their first 10 picks. They spent almost $10M last year ($9.9M).

    Any guesses?

  11. I admit I don’t follow college baseball until after the draft when there’s a few high profile guys to follow. However, watching last year after the draft, I was blown away by Jackie Bradley, Jr’s obvious ability so I’m very surprised that he’s not a likely 1st round pick this year. I would really like to see the Phils take some position players high this year although I’m not at all confident that any legit SS prospects will be left at 39. Its the same reason I think the phils will extend Rollins, there just aren’t that many guys that are that good at SS and if they’re good, they get snapped up quickly.

  12. Reported and confirmed now by multiple sources that Gerrit Cole. Will be fascinating to see if he ends up having a better career than Bauer.

    1. Errr….

      Reported and confirmed now by multiple sources that Gerrit Cole will be the No.1 pick. Will be fascinating to see if he ends up having a better career than Bauer.

  13. PG Final Top 100 Out:

    27. Andrew Susac, C
    28. Andrew Chafin, LHP
    31. Austin Hedges, C
    35. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
    40. Jackie Bradley, Jr., OF
    41. Trevor Story, SS
    46. Brandon Nimmo, OF
    49. Blake Snell, LHP (quite the jump up here)
    63. Tyler Goeddel, 3B
    67. Brad Milller, SS
    68. Brandon Martin, SS
    70. Cameron Gallagher, C
    82. Nick Delmonico, C-1B
    83. Jeff Ames, RHP

    Comer – not in Top 100

    1. I can’t see Jackie Bradley getting past Tampa before the Phillies pick. With all of the picks they have, they are going to draft a bunch of signable slot guys. I would think they could afford to take a chance on Bradley.

  14. Kevin Goldstein has us taking Michael Fulmer, a high school pitcher from Oklahoma. Considering Bundy and Bradley have gotten the most press out of the state I haven’t heard his name thrown around.

    1. He seems pretty solid from the little I’ve read on him.

      Incidentally, Keith Law jumped Comer way up his Top 100. So if he’s the pick, we’ll get at least one positive review.

  15. If we could get Jackie Bradley, that would be insane. The guy’s a stud, and the closest to a sure thing the Phillies are going to get at 39, assuming he even drops, which he probably won’t.

    1. All the mocks have him falling out of the first round (33 picks), then we just have to dodge 5 picks in front of us in the sandwich round. I do think he’ll be off the board, but its not out of the question, and I’d be more than happy with that pick.

      1. This would be one of those picks I would literally jump for joy for….(while still being realistic)

      2. Bradley could be a tough sign. He has said that if the money isn’t right, he would be more than happy to go back to school next year. I don’t think slot at 39 gets it done.

  16. If they get Comer with their 2nd or 3rd pick I’d probably be ok with it, but he screams “reach”.

  17. I was told the Phils are indeed hot for Comer. Does that mean it happens? No. After he goes I’ll share my little info. It’s my first source ever.

    1. I believe you. The way this thing works, you would expect the Phillies to be essentially “negotiating” with him up until their pick. If they feel good about it they may pop him.

      1. I was surprised that they would be considering a guy with a Vanderbilt commitment. I know they have been talking with his agent so they have to know around what it will take to sign him.

  18. Of course, out of PP’s top 5 I think I like Delmonico the best so he is the lowest rated. Seems like a good enough bat and has a chance to stay at C or move to 3B. (Have heard some who do not like his swing and think he will be limited to 1B, so what do I know?).

    Bradley should be the pick if available as long as the Phillies believe the injury is the reason for his fall and can sign him for slot. I just do not want another OF for the Phillies. Chafin is good and already back from TJ so would also be a good pick and surprise if he lasts that long. Goeddel will probably end up in the OF. Story at least fits a need position.

  19. I don’t have Keith Law’s top 100 available here, but I know that Comer was ranked in the 30s after not being on the list at all previously? Maybe someone with Insider can check that, I can’t right now.

    When it comes to these things, I trust KLaw more than BA, but that’s just personal preference in terms of how he evaluates guys. But its just one opinion. Still, I don’t think its a “big reach”, even if hes not my preferred choice at 39. I think its more likely he goes in the 2nd round. I remember similar discussions a few years ago with Jason Knapp, where people were thinking he’d go in the first round, and he ended up going in the 2nd. Depends how many teams are after Comer and their read on his signability.

  20. Drafting a SS… so, we all know the SS position is extremely hard to come by, and there are rarely good hitting prospects at this position. However, they clearly exist, so the question is, to land an above average (min. fringe AS) SS, what is the best way to aquire?

    A – Via Latin America and a 1 million dollar signing?
    B – Several Cheap LA signings (say 2-4ook)
    C – Several slightly over slot late draft picks
    D – late first round/supplemental picks (since the phillies never have early picks)
    E – Way over 1st/2nd day pick?
    F – MLB Free Agent (let someone else take developmental risk)

    I would vote A or E but it seems those are the two options the phillies refuse to subscribe to.

    For the phillies, their philosophy seems to be B C or F

    Which basically leaves for slot early picks out of the question.

    As such, I’m predicting the phillies don’t take a SS early in this years draft.

    Thoughts?

  21. Also, fwiw, I think the Orioles would be nuts to take Archie Bradley over Dylan Bundy if both are there. And Bundy ending up with the Nats is something I’d like to not think about at this point.

    1. I’ll agree with that… but with the nats annual draft position, (and tampa for that matter) I’d love to see MLB institute a draft pick trading system….

      Or even a lottery based system for non-playoff teams.

      1. Why would you need a lottery? Lotteries are so teams don’t lose on purpose to get a player. That isn’t a problem in baseball.

        And the Nats/Rays/Pirates are primed to compete because the draft has allowed them to restock through good drafting. Instituting a lottery would hurt the teams that need the top talent the most diminishing the depth of the league. A salary cap needs to go along with any lottery.

        Absolutely no need for a lottery in baseball.

        1. True, but at the same time, I question if in the last two years (with strausberg and harper) there wasn’t a contest between the bottom few teams not to do “too well”… the bigger point I was trying to make was the ability to trade picks…. I would prefer teams like the phillies to be able to trade up/down as needed instead of being screwed to the back of the draft no matter what they do. So toss in that along with a hardcap and I’d be elated.

          As for it encouraging competition, I actually think for those bottom feeding teams, I don’t buy it, lets look at the phillies for a second…

          2011: $172,976,379
          2010: $141,928,379
          2009: $113,004,046
          2008: $ 98,269,880
          2007: $ 89,428,213
          2006: $ 88,273,333

          Clearly, the phillies spend today nearly twice as much as they did 5 years ago, and we aren’t talking about going from 40 million to 80 million… which in the scope of MLB teams isn’t compariable, we’re talking about an additional 80+ million dollars. The bottom line is, rewarding teams for losing isn’t what should happen.

          I don’t see either Tampa or KC or Washington (though when they signed werth it made me waiver on this belief) ever getting out of the proverbial gutter, and going forward just taking advantage of profit sharing and the rewards for suckage while hoping to field a semi-competitive team for a year before trading it all away. (so they can start taking all the best players in the draft again).

          And btw the phillies did that, operating in a city with 1.5 million people (not in the top 5 in USA), several competing teams within 200 miles including the Yankees who are, by a large margin baseballs largest draw and fan base.

          If baseball is having a problem with not enough good talent league wide and/or fans for specific teams, perhaps the real solution is eliminating (or moving) teams that are incappable of making money instead of handicapping the sucessful teams to cover them.

          This is the primary reason i’d prefer a draft pick trading system.

          But this post has obviously turned into a diatribe about crappy teams… all i really want is a draft pick trading system. Thank you very much. 🙂

          1. Tampa Bay has won 95+ games 2 of the last 3 years. They do exactly what a low budget team has to. They got a ton of compensation picks for guys who I didn’t realize were good enough to be Type A/B guys, but they really work their farm system well and don’t belong in the same category as Pittsburgh and KC any more.

    1. I actually just read an interview of the kid plus scouting reports, doesn’t sound like a horrible pick though i’d like to see it as our 2nd/3rd pick rather then 1st. He just started working out 9 months ago so perhaps there is more projectability in his frame.

  22. Keith Law mentioning Granden Goetzman, a guy I almost wrote up in yesterday’s notebook, as a possible sandwich round guy getting some late run.

    He also indicated that he thought Comer would slide to the 3rd/4th round and then get a 7 figure bonus. Its going to take that much to sign him away from school.

    1. I was just reading Klaw’s Chat and couldn’t remember Goetzman being mentioned here. Since you were thinking of writing him up do you have a brief synopsis to give us.

  23. I’ve also heard Goedell in sandwich as well as Beede already has a deal worked out with a team to go in the 2nd round. Very pondersome

  24. Ha, I love having people who can feed me information, but it sucks that I can’t share it.

    Though with 38 picks ahead of the Phillies, any info I have will probably end up being obsolete by 8:00 tonight.

    1. How about this pp, just tell us how happy you’d be if your “new” info comes true, rate from 1 to 10 with 10 being partying like it was the millenium (assuming you partied then lol)

      1. After further thought, if it plays out perfectly, in terms of the three guys going in the “right” order, it would be impressive, for sure.

        I think one of the guys will be gone at 39, but if not, it could really fall in to place for the Phillies.

  25. Well, I was given 3 names. One name will elicit a bunch of eye rolls, especially if hes the first guy taken. The other 2 names people will be happier with.

    That’s all I can say.

    1. Well, in that case, lets hope the eye roller gets picked before our pick. 🙂

      I was hoping that would be the case with hewitt years ago, but of course, didn’t happen, and i got disappointed big time (not knocking the whole draft, just that first pick)… then again, to win the lottery, you’ve gotta play right?

      Can you give us some more info a pick or two before the phillies pick?

      1. Sorry for the late reply, didn’t want to mix up Goetzman with another player, as I’ve read a lot of scouting reports in the last week.

        He gets comped physically to Jayson Werth. Same body type. He was a SS this year, but is probably gonna move to an OF corner. Very athletic, raw power, some speed, good feel for hitting. Great makeup too.

        BA has him at 52, KLaw has him at 64.

    2. So what you’re saying is the Phillies like Comer, but would prefer to take him 2nd or 3rd where we would be okay with the pick–however, if their other players are gone, they will take him first, inducing eye rolls amongst the fan base. Understood, no need to say more!

  26. Holy Cow Tampa has a lot of picks…how have they managed that when they have been so good the past couple of seasons?

    1. They just lost a ton of free agents this past year, especially in their bullpen and Outfield.

    2. Two picks apiece for Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano. Plus they got compensation picks for losing their fungible middle relievers like Randy Choate, Chad Qualls, Grant Balfour. They got one more for San Diego signing Brad Hawpe.

      1. Interestingly enough it looks like the Phils will be in line for some compensation picks in 2012. Ibanez and Lidge are locks.

        Jroll Type B
        Oswalt Type A
        Madson Type A
        Ibanez Type A
        Lidge Type B

        1. Phillies have to actually offer arb to those guys unless the other team signs them before the arbitration deadline starts.

          I highly doubt the Phillies would offer arb to Ibanez or Lidge.

  27. For what it’s worth, the Williamsport Crosscutters on Facebook estimated the Phillies’ pick coming up around 10:15 tonight. (They are covering the event because Cutters’ manager Mickey Morandini is the Phils’ representative.

  28. Anybody think Tampa will pick somebody in the 1st round knowing they will never sign them, just so they can get that pick back next year? They have 10 of the 1st 60 picks, and they can keep a player away from another team, alleviate some of the $$$$ they would be forced to spend this year and make out with extra picks next year…..IMO it makes total sense for them to do this, with somebody who wants the farm, realizing they wont be hurt by not signing them, and get that pick back next year…..not sure of the rules, but wouldnt they have to do this with 1 of their 1st round picks since comp picks are not protected?

    1. They wouldn’t save money since they’d just spend it next year anyway. Given the depth of this year’s draft class they would get a worse player and they would lose negotiating leverage in the process. I don’t see the advantage of a strategy like that.

      1. $$$$ spent next year collects interest in the bank for 365 days…..IMO there is no way they sign every single 1 of their first 10 picks….just way too much $$$$$ going out in signing bonus’ right away for a small market team.

  29. Goetzman is a 6’4″ shortstop but Law lists him as an outfielder…strange considering defense is supposed to be his strength.

    1. I read somewhere that he moved to SS as a senior and was an outfielder his first three years. He had never played SS before this year.

  30. How about Speck, the 23 year old lefty Cuban defector? He throws mid 90s with a big curve. He’s entering this draft.

  31. PP- Question about the name that will elicit eyerolls; Do you think there is a chance that he will be picked before 39?

  32. Seems to me the Phillies are in huge need of RH power bats across the board. Obviously 3B is a gaping hole right now but with all the toolsy CF types in the system, it would be nice to have some real power hitters as well.

    1. I dont really have a feel for it, because I havent paid much attention at the top

      01 Cole
      02 Rendon
      03 Hultzen
      04 Bauer
      05 Bundy
      06 Starling

      Thats as far as I’ll even bother going

  33. I bet the Phillies are hoping that Jackie Bradley falls but they’ll settle for Kevin Comer.

  34. And I think that is also a good example of what I was talking about, with teams all having different ideas and rankings. Even at the very top of the draft!

  35. One note on offering our free agents, arb, I wouldn’t be surprised if that system is out the window next year with the new CBA.

    So we could have a ton of picks.

  36. J/k just don’t think his bat plays there and you lose all the value he brings as a 3B.

  37. Lot of talent piling up along the Anacostia. Eventually something has to come of that.

  38. Man this is great. Nats take a 3B so they can trade Zimm to the Phillies, Indians take a SS so they can trade Asdrubal Cabrera to the Phillies. This first round has already been a huge win for us

  39. Interesting the Mets pop Nimmo there. High risk, high reward, but def. a change from there norm.

  40. There’s alot of talent out there, Mahtook, George Springer, matt barnes, jackie bradley…

  41. College players really falling – Mahtook, Barnes, Gray, Meyer. Really hope somebody takes Josh Bell before 39

  42. Cliff is dealing tonight, 5ks in 3ip, switching back and forth between this and the draft. I am more looking fwd to reading the scouting reports and PP’s review of the picks then I am the actual pick. (I don’t know enough about the players, I have no rumors, and MLB network announcers suck)

    1. seriously I agree. Outside the first couple picks for the Phillies, I’m completely clueless on the rest. Can’t wait for the write-up.

  43. Even tho it’s a long shot. I still want us to take Purke, if he falls to 39. Draft him and watch him pitch in the summer to prove he’s healthy. Doubt he’ll sign tho.

  44. PP, a pick or two before the phillies are on the clock can you give us 3 names you DON’T want the phillies to take and 3 you’d be happy with? (based on what’s left on the board)

    1. Nimmo to the Mets. It would be hilarious if they took him, knowing they couldnt afford him, but that they could save $2M in bonus money.

      I guess Rendon sliding where he did was surprising, but I voiced my skepticism about him in my ending to my draft notebook yesterday.

      Everything else looks about right so far.

    1. Still not sold, but an improvement, he needs to finish the year in the .275 average range for me with doubles power.

    2. Also, so far Brian Gordon as thrown 5 innings, no runs, 3 hits, 10 strikeouts, and 1 walk. I think he deserves a call up. He is doing unbelievable this year.

  45. PP- I’m guessing none of the three guys you heard the phil’s were interested in have been selected yet.

    1. Unless the Blue Jays, who have a bunch of picks, just felt like messing with the Red Sox.

      1. …and since I know we wouldn’t take Beede, I’m really glad he’s off the board before 39

  46. pp there is a kid from my high school who got a scholarship to north carolina, any info on if he might get drafted his last name is zook? appreciate any info

  47. Graphic on mlbtv ticker says every Phillies’ 1st rounder from ’93-’04 has made the majors. I wasn’t aware of that.
    Joe Savery may be the guy to break the streak.

  48. If a team drafts a kid in the comp rounds and he doesnt sign, where does the teams pick next year go? 1st 2nd or Comp?

      1. This guy is a future 1B right? He has nowhere near the body type I could see of a MLB outfielder… That being said I just watched the Dodgers have Marcus Thames in LF so who knows.

  49. So far so good. Although I expect alot of the names I am interested in for the Phillies to start coming off the board over the next 12 picks.

  50. I would like to see them take Susac, if he gets there. I’m thinking Brian Goodwin though.

  51. Section 113, how so? I had flipped to the phils game and didn’t see what you are referencing.

  52. If Susac falls to us would we draft or is there too much of a concern regarding signability? It’d be a shame to let a guy like him go when we only have one catcher in our system. (legit catcher).

  53. question: why does every team take up the whole 5 minutes when they likely know whom they’re going to pick before that?

  54. PP, are these three guys they hope to get with first three picks, or just hope one is availabl at 39?

  55. Torre looks like Morty Seinfeld in the episode when he starts working again for Peterman’s company.

  56. Larry Greene is a physical specimen. The 6ft 1in 230lb lefty hitter has all of the tools to make it to the big show. We have clocked Greene at 6.51 with a screw in his foot. Greene also threw 91 MPH from RF in a workout. Larry Greene has as much physical power as any kid in America. He can hit balls out of site. We saw a three homer performance in the State playoffs last season. Greene’s weakness may be in the mental game. He has to step up this side of his game to get the big money draft day he is hoping for. The physical tools are in place we hope Greene can improve the other stuff and he could be a 1st Rounder. Several mock drafts have Greene going pick 33 to 36.

  57. From Dallas Jackson of Rivals.com: Green dealt with a lot of off-field adversity with the passing of his mother this year. His power is off the charts and could be one of the best high school bats in the draft.

    1. I like it. If we’re gonna take a high-upside HS bat, at least take a guy that has hitting skills.

      Hopefully he pans out.

  58. He’s signing. According to Perfectgame, he’s going to Chipola JC which means no D-1 Scholarship which means he’s a Phillies.

  59. Could have played LB for nick saban. I have no idea if that is good or bad……. Did i jinx us with my toolsy OF joke?

  60. psshh, and I got a post deleted for making a crack about the Phillies drafting athletic outfielders.

    1. I think drafting toolsy outfielders with high draft picks has jumped the shark. I wish him the best and I hope he’s a monster player, but it’d be nice to have some infielders in the system too. Hopefully they get some later.

    2. Yup, 9 out of 10 players are “toolsy”, which leads to the annoying posts of “OMGZ toolsy OF again!”

  61. UGHH anyone see what the Rays are doing?? IF they sign half these guys, it’s going to be UNREAL

    1. I suspect their draft budget will be something like $12-15 million. They’ll sign a good number of them I think. they saved a TON of money this year with their slashed MLB payroll.

    2. They’ll sign a good amount of the players, but I have a feeling they intend to not sign a few of them, and roll a couple picks over to next year. IMO

  62. Hope the screw in his foot holds up. I’d like to see him not K too much in the GCL, and hit at least 6 homers this season.

  63. Most power of any HS Batter. Left-Handed. Like Domonic Brown – taken from Braves Country. I like it.

    1. I like that he’s from the Southeast where they play more baseball than they do in the NE or Canada or somewhere else where the players are always raw.

      The power comments are intriquing too.

  64. Not sure another toolshed really surprised anyone, but Larry seems like a fine kid and a real physical specimen; all I can do is wish a, seemingly, classy kid a bright future with our Phillies.

  65. How did we not predict this?? Toolsy OFer that would considered a slight reach but you can sell it to yourself. Like it though and he will be fun to follow.

  66. How is Green’s approach at the plate. Is he a K machine like Costanzo? Or does he know the strike zone like Singleton? I like it. They will draft tough sings later in the draft and sign them above slot. This is a slot signing pick with more upside than a Dugan or Hewitt. I have faith they’ll wow us later in the draft.

  67. It’s a crapshoot at this point. Not sure there were any sure things at that point. I like the Phillies taking a shot on this kid. I hated the Hewitt pick. I don’t feel like this is another Hewitt pick. All the scouts said before the draft that Hewitt couldn’t hit a breaking ball. All I’m hearing about Green is mental but how exactly should a high school senior react to the passing of his mother? His mind might not be completely on his game going through that. I love his size and the power. I’m pulling for the kid. Both he and his dad seemed unbelievably respectful of Hazel Mae. I’m betting he’s a high character guy with really big potential. Glad he’s a Phillies.

  68. Never underestimate what some of these guys from the deep South have had to live through to get to this point. Let’s not get on him about his lack of interview skills.

    It’s a different live for a lot of those guys and it sounds like he has a tough personal story.

    Man-ram never solved a Rubix Cube, but he could rake.

    1. He sounded like an 18 year old kid who just got drafted by a great franchise. He didnt sound bad at all to me.

      I really like this pick.

  69. I read a not so glowing review of him on espn. Seems like power is his only tool and 1B is his most likely destination. K’s alot, did not face good competition, and really slow. Pure power but they also said its his only average tool. arghh

    1. He received a scholarship offer to play linebacker at Alabama. He can’t be that slow.

      1. Reminds me of John Mayberry Jr (excepting that he’s a lefty where Mayberry is a righty) scouting report coming out of HS. Mayberry for his size had a pretty respectable time 60 time. The reported time on Greene (6.50ish) is even better than Mayberry had. I still think looking at his body type he looks like a 1B.

    2. Agree that Greene is a slot signing pick.

      I was kinda hoping for Susac but he probably would have been well above slot, which meant it wasn’t gonna happen at #39.

    3. Don’t know much of anything about Greene, but I just watched a video of him running the bases. He’s no speed merchant, but is not slow, particularly for a kid his size. As someone else noted, Alabama does not recruit kids to play LB who can’t run.

      So I’m not worried about his speed. I am much more interested in his plate discipline and contact skills.

  70. Have no idea who this kid is or how good he can be, but lefthand outfield again, it just amazes me that they keep going after lefthanded outfielders.

  71. Makes sense. He’s limping to the podium to get his jersey. But on the upside, the Phils said he is day to day and will not be put on the DL.

    I hate this pick. A lot.

  72. reminds me of singleton. Big lefty high school bat. Played in sub par competition and was overlooked. However, Singleton was more of a hidden jem then greene.

  73. Yea, I kind of like it. I like his power tools better than someone like Hewitt (like a basketball player trying baseball out) Green seems like a ball player, naturally strong, nice kid. I just hope he isn’t a K machine. More of a ball player than the other toolsy guys they have taken in the past. But like the Phillies have done in the past, he won’t be the best player they draft and sign.

  74. Just a note. This guy is the opposite of the “toolsy” OF that everyone here hates.

    He has 1 tool. Its potential 40 HR power, power he has already tapped in to.

  75. No.75 overall player by Baseball America.

    From BA: “Greene isn’t quite one-dimensional, but it’s close. He’s a physical beast at 6-foot-2, 235 pounds, and one evaluator compared his power to that of Russell Branyan, another south Georgia lefthanded hitter. Green was dominating and putting on huge power displays against modest pitching, pushing himself into first-round consideration. However, scouts who saw him last summer recall he struggled mightily with velocity at the East Coast Pro Showcase. Greene is somewhat stiff but is an average runner, which should give him a chance to play left field, but some scouts think he’ll wind up as more of a first base/DH type. Greene’s value is mostly in his bat and well above-average raw power. He’s likely to put on a display in individual workouts for teams prior to the draft.”

    1. He may not sound like Hewitt, but boy I sure get the feeling he will be a clone…Loads of K’s, with the occassional tape measure HR will not get it done… I hope I am wrong. I hope the rest of the draft let us forget about the 1st selection…

  76. I’m not sure why we pay attention early in the draft anymore. The Phillies don’t seem to get serious until later on anyway. Then they scour the leftover racks to get tough signs. Only problem is they haven’t found any infielders worth a darn in a long time. And their infield is on life support these days.

  77. From ESPN chat:

    Joe (Chicago): Hitter with highest ceiling in this draft?

    Klaw: I would say Starling. Larry Greene has more power potential, but far less with the hit tool.

  78. The odds of this kid staying in the outfield are zero. Actually, they are undefined. When you divide by zero it’s not really a number. And he fills the glaring need the Phillies don’t have at DH, which appears to be staffed by half the players in AAA and AA already.

    Did I mention how little I like this pick? Seems like a nice kid. But Hewitt was a nice kid too. Who the heck needs a lumbering middle linebacker who had trouble with fastballs? The Phillies, apparently.

    1. Dude, you couldnt sound any dumber.

      You have never seen him play.

      You know nothing about him but what you read on the internet.

      You’re acting like its a sure thing he’s a bust and he was drafted 20 minutes ago.

      Haaha the funny thing about dumb people like you is that you dont even know how dumb you are. You think the loser, miserable, uninformed drivel that your mind produces is normal. Thats the funny thing

    2. What I get from this comment is that Greene is guaranteed to be the greatest outfielder of all time, since dividing by zero would imply that a probability is pretty near infinity. Math fail.

  79. Well, Rizz and Savery are getting old so we need to groom their replacement. Enter Larry Greene!!!!

  80. Why not give the kid a chance before destroying him. 15 min ago, you’d never heard of him so its kinda BS to make a judgement on him at this point.

  81. According to baseballrumormill.com, he “has as much physical power as any kid in America. He can hit balls out of sight.” Nix readily admits that Greene is primarily a hitter, but that doesn’t mean he’s one-dimensional. He holds down center field and does an excellent job defensively, especially considering this is only his second year in the outfield. Greene has very good speed and can track balls hit in any direction. His arm is strong and accurate, and he patrols center with confidence.

    Can he stick as a Left Fielder is the question. Seems to have a good Arm.

    1. Haha, zinggg!

      But I actually like the pick. We usually get annoyed that the Phils go for the really raw athletic players…well, this guy seems like he is a much better with the bat than most of the last couple of players we’ve taken recently for the outfield.

  82. So, what’s left of our target list? Any of the three still there? No.66 is not that far away.

  83. Larry Greene is definitely unlike a lot of early Phillies picks of late, and his power potential is off the charts good. Even if he can’t stick in the OF, this is the type of guy who could be a great 1st Baseman assuming he can hit for at least a passable average and keep jacking pitches into the seats.

    Not sure how good of a hitter he is besides the power aspect, but i’m hoping he has decent control of the strikezone and can take some walks.

    He could be the next Ryan Howard if everything goes right

    1. And remember…all we want is for these kids to shine. It would be nice to see them playing in Philadelphia, but if we can leverage them for players of need…it’s all good.

  84. I’m a really big fan of the message board scouts who read a few blogs and see a few names, and if the player isn’t one of those names they throw together a 3 paragraph tirade complaining about the pick

  85. aksmith, you are right with the Phillies do “nothing” this early in the draft. They will definitley draft and sign better players than Greene. Here is why hey picked him. He is going to be easy to sign at slot and unlike guys like Dugan and Hewitt, Greene’s power alone at the very least should make him a tradeable prospect, so there is value there. I think we will see that there will be better guys taken later.

  86. When i read he struggles with velocity, its like a time machine reading about hewitt. struggle with better competion same mo. maybe he is a easy sign .hard to believe a one demension player was best player available at that spot, sorry dont buy it at all.

  87. Hey, the big club hasn’t hit a home run in the month of June. I’m ok with taking a guy that might immediately become the best power bat in the system.

  88. After the failures with so many draft picks that were supposed to hit for power (i.e. Michael Durant), I kind of like this pick. There were other guys I would have taken instead, but I can’t argue getting the best power in the draft. Alex Dickerson for sure is a future DH/1B. I think Greene from what I have read has a legit shot to play in LF.

    ***********

    Larry Greene, OF

    Larry Greene may be the very definition of man-child. Listed at 6’1″ and 230 lb, Greene is a hulking outfielder out of Berrien High School in Nashville, Georgia. On a purely physical standpoint, Greene may be one of most impressive high school prospects in this draft. With his strong arms and thick legs, Greene generates very impressive power to all fields. Greene’s swing also has good speed, which could result in decent averages going forward.

    2011 Draft Prospect Larry Greene from Replacement Level Baseball on Vimeo.

    Also, despite his massive size, Greene shows surprising speed that has resulted in 60 times in the 6.5′s. While I don’t believe he’ll be able to maintain that quickness as he grows older and adds weight, Greene’s current athleticism is hard to ignore. This Georgia native is only a senior in high school and I fear how much larger he will become in the future. Though there is clearly a lot of muscle on his frame, some would argue that Greene’s body borders on soft already and will likely only get softer with time. Still, Greene’s present power ranks as one of the best of the class and will be well worth the gamble come draft day. Larry Greene has committed to Chipola College.

    http://www.replacementlevelbaseball.com/2011/05/rlb-2011-mlb-draft-coverage-gallagher-greene-and-harrison/

  89. If they made this pick with a slot deal in place with the intention of spending big in rounds 2-5 then I’ll be ok with it. I don’t really care that he doesn’t satisfy a position of need, but there were definitely better players available. Oh well. There are still some excellent players on the board and we’re picking early tomorrow. PP, are any of those 3 names you heard still available?

  90. I love this pick. We need offense, especially power. I just worry about the adjustment process.

    1. not neccesarily. He did break a bone in his foot. That could change his speed tool. He also played LB, so maybe he added bulk at the expense of speed. A year is a long time

      1. The article says that he was clocked at 6.51 with a screw in his foot, so I don’t think that that injury affected his speed greatly.

  91. Hes not fat like Carlos Lee.

    He’s built like an NFL linebacker. He’s not a burner, but he’s not Carlos Lee or Bengie Molina.

    He should be fine in LF until his mid-late 20s, maybe even longer.

  92. Great site and discussion. Thanks so much to all for the updates. Seems like the PP top5 were all available which was a mild surprise. Thought for sure Phillies would go for Bradley or Chafin.

    Appears that power may be the most difficult tool to acquire so the Phillies are targeting it early for hitters. Hewitt has batting practice power but cannot translate it to the field quite yet. Be interesting to see this lesser known guy. If going for a tool at least go for the top players with it.

  93. Susac would have had to sign a letter saying it was ok for the Phils to pick him again though right?

  94. Im still curious to hear from PP about his source and the 3 guys that were hinted at. But i completely understand that it can’t be discussed yet.. PP, when all three of those guys are taken, fill us in!

    1. Sources should stay anonymous so they can continue to feed information. When all three are off the board, I would like to know what they were though.

  95. Final comment in this post from me.

    I like the pick. The Phillies are huge on makeup. Greene seems like a really awesome kid. Has been through a ton in his life already at 18. He’s a hard worker, he’s not a bad athlete, and his power is the best in the draft. LF at CBP isn’t exactly like Safeco.

    Can he hit a breaking ball? Who knows. Give him reps, see what happens. He’ll sign for slot, he’ll sign quickly, and he’ll get out in the GCL and hopefully get 100 AB. Then we may see something.

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