Hot or Not 03 June 2011

A look back over the May 27–June 2nd time period, with some truly notable performances this time around.

Hot Hitters:(10 AB minimum) Sebastian Valle (.650, 13-20); Joe Savery (.500), Erik Kratz (.455, 2HR 4 RBI); James Murphy (.448, 5R 2HR 9 RBI); Tuffy Gosewisch (.444, 1HR 6RBI); Mike Spidale (.391, 4R 3 RBI); Geancarlo Mendez (.385, 6R 1HR 4 RBI); Aaron Altherr (.385); Leandro Castro (.381); Cesar Hernandez (.375). Honorable Mention: Derrick Mitchell, Jeff Larish, Tagg Bozied

Not Hot Hitters: Fidel Hernandez (0-12); Troy Hanzawa (.091); Darin Ruf (.095); Jeremy Barnes (.105); Cameron Rupp (.130); Zach Collier (.174); Niuman Romero (.188); Alan Schoenberger (.188); Scott Podsednik (.190)

Hot Starting Pitchers: Brian Gordon (2W, 13IP 6H 1ER 1BB 16K)Garrett Claypool (7IP 4H 0ER 1BB 7K); Jesse Biddle (7IP 4H 0ER 1BB 4K); Trevor May (13IP 5H 2ER 6BB 19K); David Buchanan (14IP 8H 3ER 2BB 11K); Julio Rodriguez (W, 5IP 1H 0ER 1BB 6K)

Not Hot Starters: Josh Zeid (8.2IP 12H 11ER 6BB 3K); Nate Bump (5IP 6H 6ER 2BB 3K); Brian Bass (6IP 10H 5ER 3BB 4K); JC Ramirez (10IP 11H 7ER 9BB 2K).

Hot Relievers: Tyson Brummett (6IP 3H 0ER 1BB 9K); L. Bonilla (5IP 0H 0ER 0BB 4K 3SV); Justin DeFratus (4.1IP 1H 0ER 1BB 6K 1SV); Michael Schwimer (4IP 0H 0ER 0BB 3K); Scott Mathieson (4IP 2H 0ER 0BB 3K 1SV); Justin Friend (3IP 1H 0ER 1BB 6K 2SV); Ebelin Lugo (3IP 1H 0ER 0BB 1K). Honorable Mention: Jordan Whatcott, Juan Perez, Colby Shreve

Not Hot Relievers: Jacob Diekman (2IP 2H 3ER 4BB 3K); Chris Kissock (4.1IP 9H 4ER); Les Walrond (2IP 3H 2ER)

 

49 thoughts on “Hot or Not 03 June 2011

  1. Nice to see Mendez back up there. It’s also nice to see DeFratus putting it all together.

    Alan’s report on JC Ramirez, combined with JC’s recent poor performance, is worrying to me.

    I’m also worried about Rupp. Anyone have any comments from watching him play?

    1. I agree on Rupp…very disappointing start for him overall. This is especially so for a college guy in the Sally league. He should be beating up on the competition and he’s just struggling. I remember seeing him last year in Williamsport several times and he just has a very long swing. I would guess he hasn’t adjusted it and is being punished by wooden bats as a result.

  2. Trevor May 2011 A+:
    253 batters faced
    80 K (31.6%)
    29 BB (11.5%)

    2010 A+
    319 BF
    90 K (28.2%)
    61 BB (19.1%)

    The huge reduction in extra batters because of all the walks last year hides the fact that he’s actually increased his strikeout rate a decent amount.

    1. We should give credit for this. Phils handled May correctly. First optimistic to A+ in 2010, then back to Low A to regain confidence. Now he has refined his game as hoped for. Good job Phils, better Job May, who was the guy performing.

    2. agreed a step in the right direction. however he still needs to get that bb rate much lower. like 50% lower. but he gets a lot of swings and misses. which to me is the most important stat for a minor league player

  3. Valle 4 for 4 and no walks. The game I saw him play in Jupiter he was robbed twice with great def plays getting him. If I was hitting like him I wouldnt be walking either. Is this a hot streak or is he just that much better than the league he’s in?

    1. Its not at he’s not walking during this hot streak, its that he’s not walking at all period.

      He at least walked occasionally in the Sally league (43 BB in 664 PA over 2 seasons) so its puzzling that he’s essentially not walking at all in the FSL league:

      BB%
      A Ball: 6.5%
      A+ Ball: 1.4%

      1. I understand what your saying. Just think he is seeing the ball so well its tough to walk unless they are pitching around him. Probably wont find out for sure untill he is promoted and the pitchers are more refined. Not saying they should promote him. Would like to see his championship per level streak stay in tact.

    2. he is really an interesting prospect and one who is performing better than expected. he is not only hitting, he is hitting for power with a very good ISO. i think the theory is, if he doesn’t walk, then pitchers won’t throw him strikes. maybe that is fair. but maybe he has such good hand-eye coordination that he is just a guy who will always have a low walk rate. i don’t know, but it is fun to read his box scores.

  4. I’m a fan of Brummetts from Lehi Utah, why are they not promoting him I’ve been following him over the years and he seems to have really hit his stride this year. He’s not too old is he? His numbers are great especially his last 5 outings no runs minimal hits and lots of Ks.

    1. Brummett could be quietly working himself towards an opportunity as a fill-in middle reliever, maybe next year. Any reports on his stuff. I agree he seems to be maturing, really getting his game together.

  5. Valle is amazing for someone who will not turn 21 until July. But just think last year he had close to 700 at bats between the SAL and Mexican Pacific League regular and post season games. Watching any of those games south of the border on the Net, he saw a lot of off speed pitches. All that work last season seems to be paying off for him big time this season at the plate as he has significantly reduced his strike out ratio after 140 at bats in the FSL this season.

  6. If you exclude Dom Brown which we will by this off season, would Trevor May be our #1 prospect now? Valle?

    1. I think it has to be Cosart his stuff is just better than May’s, but we still have a season to go.

      1. Tough question, if Valle finishes the year with a .320 w/ power, he gets the nod at #1 to me… the most premium position on the field, + average, + power, improving defense. What’s not to like? (walks I know, the big test for him will be AA if he doesn’t improve his walk rate before then) But either way, he’s clearly young. As to your comment on Cosart, until his stuff = results, I’m giving the nod to May, given that May’s stuff isn’t so far behind. Personally I think the difference there is also command/control (can’t remember which is which) not just pure stuff.

        1. Just to preface that with “assuming the season ended today and sample size adjusted assuming a full year of IP”

        2. Set the pitchers aside. I think ranking pitchers versus hitters is tough, as pitchers have so much greater chance of an injury related flame out. So we have Singleton versus Valle.

          I do understand why some people now see Valle ahead. I don’t buy it at all. At all. Singleton IMO has a higher floor and equal ceiling. Valle could indeed flame out totally in AA because of the lack of plate discipline. Singleton is almost certain to be major leaguer, despite a few bumps this year. Both could be stars in the majors, hence the equal ceiling, but Singleton is more likely to reach that level. Another way to look at it is that Singleton has stuff to work on, but none of it looks potentially career destroying, whereas the plate discipline issue could easily sink Valle’s career.

          Now, all that said Valle is an exciting prospect. And because of his position (though there is still no guarentee he can stick there), again I can understand some people’s thinking in ranking him higher. But I’m not buying it. Sorry, a 2/27 BB/K ratio doesn’t do it for me.

          I’d also bet cash money that he doesn’t finish at .320. Which may explain part of my skepticism.

          1. Actually, on reflection .320 wouldn’t shock me, but as I said before, IMO BA is a terribly deceptive metric for predicting future performance by minor leaguers. And again, he is a good prospect, but we are debating just how high he ranks in the organization’s top 10 – saying he is (for example) 5 rather than one isn’t an insult.

            Of course part of the issue is that the BB data is SO bad, off the charts bad, combined with mediocre contact data … how do we evaluate that? How much do we dock him for that? I’m not sure myself. I do know for sure, though, that discounting it entirely – which some people here seem to be doing – is a huge mistake.

    2. Got to throw Cosart in there too. His numbers aren’t as pretty as May’s but his stuff is still there and if he remains healthy all year, that will be one less concern that had people doubting his durability as a starter.

  7. Brummetts stuff is up a bit this year low 90s FB and he’s breaking pitches are much sharper and harder than previous years. I was at the Reading game the other day and saw him back door a breaking ball for a backwards K. The Reading gun is about 4-5 mph slow so his FB was 86-90 which means he’s sitting around 90 to 94. Not bad for and old middle reliever farmhand at 26 years old. Also I saw in the paper the coaches are loving his bulldog approach and his calm collected approach. They also mentioned his mechanics and rythym have improved. Parent thinks he’s well on his way.

  8. Not to be negative but…Cameron Rupp has a horrible swing. It has so many holes I do not know where to start. I have seen him play on numerous occasions(in college). I would be shocked if he made it to the bigs.

    Whats up with Kratz in AAA. Sardinha is better than him? Kratz’s defense has to be pretty bad. Sardinha has shown me NOTHING.

    I hope with nothing but pitchers and infielders in this draft. You can never have enough pitching and we don’t seem to have any great infield prospects.

    1. Dane is in no way a superior defensive player to Kratz. Kratz’s defense is what has kept him in AA-AAA for all of these years. Not sure if Spring Training stats are available anywhere but I’m pretty sure he was something outrageous like 6-7 catching people on the basepaths. Guy has a cannon.

  9. When I saw the headline I was thinking Mitchell was going to make the list until I saw the stats. I was wrong and Gregg got it right. More importantly nice week by a lot of guys. For the record Mitchell .370/5R/6RBI. Good to see a lot of Reading hitters heating up.

    1. Mitchell has been an intriguing guy to follow…good speed, good power. COuld be a 20/20 guy at Reading this year.

  10. The phils continue to bleed every bad game they can out of Baez. Nothing like getting your money’s worth. Meantime Schwim waits and wonders what it will take. BS

  11. Does anyone believe the best 25 player in the organization are on the active roster?

    1. You can check most teams and that holds true. The Phils don’t want to eat the remaining part of Baez’s contract until it is truely necessary. If Lidge comes back I believe you may get your wish then. Schwimer and DeFratus will get a good luck next year. Aumont should be ready in 2013.

      1. Just look at the Yanks and the Red Sox. Should Posada and Varitek still be there? The Yanks have this kid Montero who is better then Posada and Varitek is a shell of himself.

  12. Sorry but singleton and valle arent that much difference in age , I believe, singleton to what I have read is in the scouts opion going to be this great player. he hasnt show it yet but is young, but so is valle, and valle has progress nicley through the system. just believe at this time he is the better prospect, i am from missouri show me. singleton faded last year, and this year though young isnt showing as much as valle.

  13. I still like Singleton as our best position prospect. Cosart may be our #1 prospect but that’s more praise of Cosart than anything. I don’t think anyone has really played their way on or off the top ten as of yet.

  14. spitterface you saw him in college like me, I really thought he would hit, times that I saw him he hit nothing but line drives and hit to all field, maybe I didnt see enough of him. the way he has struggled has suprise me, not to say he would be a great propect but thought he would hit some,

  15. Friday’s action…

    1. OF – Domonic Brown (Phillies) – (.289) 0 for 4 with a K
    2. RHP – Brody Colvin (Clearwater)- (0-2, 4.45) – 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB and 5 K’s
    3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.266) –2 for 4 with a 2B (5), run, BB and a K
    6. C – Sebastian Valle (Clearwater) – (.352) – 1 for 5 with an RBI (19) and a K
    7. LHP – Jesse Biddle (Lakewood) – (3-5, 3.99) – 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB and 3 K’s
    8. RHP – Vance Worley (Lehigh Valley) – (3-2, 2.84) – 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB and 9 K’s (win)
    10. RHP – Justin De Fratus (Reading) – (3-0, 2.28, 5 SV) – 1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB and 8 K’s (win)
    12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.211) 0 for 3 with a BB and a K
    15. OF – Aaron Altherr (Lakewood) – (.210) – 0 for 4 with a K
    18. OF – Jiwan James (Clearwater) – (.250) – 1 for 5 with a HR (3), RBI (11), CS (2) and 2 K’s
    23. RHP – Michael Schwimer (Lehigh Valley) – (2-0, 1.78, 1 SV) – 0.2 IP 0 R, 0 H, 1 BB and a K
    25. RHP – Austin Hyatt (Reading) – (6-3, 3.90) – 7 IP, 4 H, 0R, 1 BB and 8 K’s (win)
    26. OF – Leandro Castro (Clearwater) – (.292) – 2 for 5 with a HR (7), 2 runs, 2 RBI (22), SB (9) and a K

    Others:

    1B – Cody Overbeck (Reading) – (.271) 0 for 3 with a run, BB and a K
    3B – Carlos Rivero (Reading) – (.275) – 2 for 4 with a 2B (14), run, RBI (24) and a K
    3B – Geancarlo Mendez (Lakewood) – (.278) 2 for 4 with a 2B (12) and a K
    SS – Freddy Galvis (Redding) – (.255) – 1 for 5 with a run and a K
    OF – Derrick Mitchell (Redding)- (.261) – 1 for 3 with 2 RBI (34) and a BB
    OF – Joe Savery (Clearwater) –(.337) – 0 for 4 with an RBI (18)
    OF – Zach Collier (Lakewood) – (.259) – 1 for 4 with a K and a SB (13)
    OF – Anthony Hewitt (Lakewood) – (.260) – 1 for 4 with a 2B (11) and RBI (25)
    RHP – David Herndon (Lehigh Valley) – (2-0, 2.45) – 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 B and a K
    RHP – Justin Friend (Clearwater) – (1-1, 1.07, 18 SV) – 1 IP< 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB and a K (win)
    RHP – Tyler Cloyd (Redding) – (0-0, 0.00) – 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB and a K
    RHP – Lisalberto Bonilla (Lakewood) – (0-1, 1.16, 4 SV) – 0.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB and 0 K

    1. Is it just me, or is Mendez flying under the radar to an absurd extent? I know it’s been discussed, but is he likely to be able to stay at 3rd or even 2nd? I don’t put a lot of weight on this, but his tzr numbers at 2nd base were quite good, albeit in limited playing time. Am I missing something?

      We here so much about Collier and Hewitt on that team, understandable both for where they were drafted and their career trajectories, but the best prospects on the team among position players are pretty clearly Santana and Medez, am I right?

      1. You might be right. But Mendez is playing at an age appropriate level and, while getting his hits, is not generating an unusual amount of power. His best season was at age 19 in the DOSL, which is kinda old if I’m not mistaken.

        I think before he “flies within the radar” he’ll still have to improve on what he’s done so far this year.

        1. A lot will depend upon what position he ends up playing. His hitting numbers look better at third than the OF, and of course even better at 2B (though I guess the move to 3B) this year means that he is unlikely to stick at 2nd). But allow me to make the case for him:

          (1) He has a superb BB/K ratio. That good in and of itself, as well as a good indicator for future growth.

          (2) His power numbers are better than they look at first glance – he has a TON of doubles, along with 3 HR, and his ISO is a more than respectable .142. Moreover, while he is age appropriate, he is still only 21, and a lot of prospects develop more power as they develop.

          He’s not going to be a 30 homer guy, but you don’t need that to be successful if you can make up for it with other skills. If he develops into a high OBA/good contact/midrange power type of player, that has a lot of value. Obviously he has a long way to go to get there; I’m not saying he should be in the organization’s top 10, but I think he’s worked his way into the top 30 and, if he can stick at 3rd and maintains his current performance for the season, I’d put him in my top 20.

  16. No we don’t have our best 25 players on our major league roster. If we did, Kratz would replace Dane. Schwimer would replace Baez. Worley would replace Kendrick in the rotation and Kendrick would replace Romero or Zagurski in the pen. Orr or Belliard would replace Martinez.

  17. Ketch-

    Great work as always!! But De Fratus had a line that blew me away at first. 1IP 4H 0R with 8 ks.

    Correction 1IP 0H 0BB 2K

  18. Saturday’s action:

    1. OF – Domonic Brown (Phillies) – (.293) 1 for 3 with an RBI (6) and BB
    3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.269) –1 for 2 with 3 runs, RBI (19) and 3 BB
    11. RHP – Julio Rodriquez (Clearwater)- (7-3, 2.69) – 5 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB and 5 K’s (win)
    12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.217) 2 for 5 with a run, 2 RBI (12) and a K
    13. OF – Domingo Santana (Lakewood) – (.261) 1 for 4 with 2 K’s
    17. C – Cameron Rupp (Lakewood) – (.208) – 1 for 4 with a 2B (6) and 3 K’s
    22. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (Reading) – (0-5, 2.81, 4 SV) – 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB and a K (loss)
    24. 1B – Matt Rizzotti (Reading) – (.319) – 0 for 4 with a K
    26. OF – Leandro Castro (Clearwater) – (.289) – 1 for 5 with a run and RBI (23)

    Others:

    3B – Carlos Rivero (Reading) – (.274) – 1 for 4 with a 2B (15) and a run
    3B – Geancarlo Mendez (Lakewood) – (.275) 0 for 2 with 2 K’s
    SS – Freddy Galvis (Redding) – (.250) – 0 for 4
    OF – Derrick Mitchell (Redding)- (.274) – 3 for 3 with a HR (8) , RBI (35)
    OF – Steve Susdorf (Redding) – (320) – 1 for 3 with an RBI (19), BB and a K
    OF – Joe Savery (Clearwater) –(.330) – 0 for 4 with an RBI (19), 2 runs and a BB
    OF – Zach Collier (Lakewood) – (.253) – 0 for 3 with a BB, SB (14) and K
    OF – Anthony Hewitt (Lakewood) – (.261) – 1 for 4 with a HR (7), RBI (26) and 3 K’s
    RHP – Garett Claypool (Lakewood) – (1-3, 2.97) – 3.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB and 4 K’s (loss)

  19. Cosart scratched. The ever awesome Jiwan James said on Twitter its not a big deal and hes just going to miss one start.

    Singleton is walking a ton again, this is good.

  20. Pardon this momentary lapse but #$@#$^$%!!!! Have you ever seen a player, no less a middle infielder, hit into more double plays than Wilson Valdez? At times, he appears to have truly negative offensive value.

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