2010 Draft Signing Deadline Day

The deadline to sign draft picks is midnight on Monday night, and the Phillies have some work to do. I figured it would be good to go over what the Phillies have done so far, and what I expect them to do on Monday in terms of tying up a few more signings. As you have probably heard, MLB tries its best to deter teams from spending more than the recommended bonus amount, especially after the first 5 rounds. The Commissioner urges teams to not give more than a $150K bonus to a player after the 5th round, and all bonuses over this amount must be approved by the Commissioner’s office before it is official. Because of this, teams generally wait until the last few days to announce overslot signings, because the Commish won’t approve them. Will the Phillies make any more plays in this draft class? Past history says its a good possibility. Check below for more.

Update 9:38 PM —> According to this article (which provides no source), the Phillies signed Brian Pointer and Jonathan Musser. The article mentions “high 3rd round money” for Pointer, which would be somewhere between $350-450K.

Update –> Jim Callis mentions on Twitter that Pointer got $350K. So if the $300K on Musser is correct, that means $650K so far. Solid.

Update –> 5:08 PM According to Phillies scribe Matt Gelb, Kevin Walter has signed. This is fantastic news. You can find a scouting report on Walter in the link below.

Update –> 9:50 PM Gelb now says the Phillies won’t sign Frazier. Kind of a shame, but with the other signings announced, it makes sense I suppose.

You can find scouting reports for Walter, Pointer and Musser in my Draft Review piece.
Video of Brian Pointer can be found here.

Last season, the Phillies agreed to terms with Brody Colvin a few hours before the signing deadline, giving him $900,000 and what would be the biggest bonus for a 2009 Phillies draft pick. In 2008, they came to terms with 38th round pick Jarred Cosart just minutes before the deadline, giving him a $550,000 bonus. Going back further, the Phillies have given out overslot bonuses to later picks (Domonic Brown 20th round, Jiwan James 22nd round) and those decisions also look quite wise. Lets take a quick look at the Phillies 2009 bonuses of note.

As you can see from the chart, the Phillies did end up over their allocated slot totals, but this is somewhat deceiving because they did not have a first round pick. It is promising, though, that they made up for it by taking a borderline round 1 talent (pre-draft) and giving him a substantial bonus. The only “cheap” pick of the lot was Matt Way, who took an under slot bonus in the 5th round. The Phillies weren’t as active after the first 10 rounds, largely because of the money needed to sign Colvin. The Phillies spent $3.1M on bonuses (that were reported), and this was significantly less than 2008, when they had a ton of extra picks and broke slot on a number of occasions.

So now lets look at what they’ve done in 2010 so far

There were no “cheap” picks thus far, in terms of the recommended slot and the bonus given out. The Phillies are at approximately $2.62M in bonuses thus far. They have 2 unsigned first 10 rounds picks in Scott Frazier and Brenton Allen. They haven’t announced any substantial bonuses after the first 10 rounds, so here is the list of unsigned picks:

RD 5- 171- Frazier, Scott RHP- Upland HS, California
RD 9 – 291- Allen, Brenton OF- Gahr HS, CA
RD 13 – 411- Hinson, John 3B- Clemson
RD 19 – 591- Palka, Daniel 1B- Greer HS, South Carolina
RD 20 – 621- Walter, Kevin RHP- Legacy HS, Colorado
RD 21 – 651- Musser, Jonathan RHP- Dowling Catholic HS, Iowa
RD 22 – 681- Paquet, Jonathan RHP- Champlain St. Lawrence College
RD 24 – 741- Thompson, Chad RHP- Orange Coast College
RD 28 – 861- Pointer, Brian CF- Galena HS, Nevada
RD 29 – 891- Lala, Patrick RHP- Kirkwood Community College
RD 30 – 921- Gonzalez, Nicholas LHP- Leto HS, Florida
RD 38 – 1161- Walker, Keenyn OF- Central Arizona College
RD 39 – 1191- Cummings, Justin OF- Santa Fe Community College
RD 40 – 1221- Harvill, Jeffrey LHP- Evangel Christian Academy, LA
RD 41 – 1251- Zeutenhorst, Taylor OF- Sheldon HS, IA
RD 42 – 1281- Chadd, Timothy1B- Bishop Carroll Catholic HS, Kansas
RD 43 – 1311- Hodgskin, James LHP- Bishop Moore HS, FL
RD 44 – 1341- Meaux, Jesse RHP- UC Santa Barbara
RD 45 – 1371- Fransisco, Michael LHP- Villanova University
RD 46 – 1401- Ross, Tyler C- Baron Collier HS, FL
RD 48 – 1461- Ottoson, Kyle LHP- South Mountain Community College, CO
RD 49 – 1491- Hallock, Kyle LHP- Kent State University
RD 50 – 1521- Tomscha, Damek 3B- Sioux City North HS, IA

Now some thoughts. I have no inside information, these are just my thoughts, based on how past years have gone.

* Most of these players will not be signed. This is not unique to the Phillies, as most teams do not sign the bulk of their players taken after the 25th round, unless they are drafting 4th and 5th year seniors to fill out the numbers. The Phillies took plenty of community college and prep guys who still have tons of leverage, which drives up their asking price.

* Frazier remains the most likely target. He was considered a first 3 rounds talent, the Phillies had to know going in that he would require a significant bonus to sign, and I have a feeling the framework of the deal is worked out. The recommended slot bonus for #82 overall, the last pick of the 2nd round this year, is $436,500. My guess, and this is just a guess, is that Frazier wants at least $500,000. I think he’ll get it.

* Brenton Allen has done lots of talking on facebook and whatever else about not signing. Is it posturing? No one really knows. He doesn’t seem like a super high priority guy to me, I’d be happy if he signed, but I don’t view him as a make or break talent.

* It appears John Hinson is going to go back to school. I wonder how the Phillies front office feels about his father now, whom they presumably had negotiated a pre-draft deal with, and who presumably has told his son to go back to school now after a strong finish to his season. Good luck getting more money next year in an absolutely loaded draft class.

* Dan Palka (ranked 19th in SC by BA) is a prep 1B/OF with intriguing upside, but a tough college commitment to Georgia Tech. This article a week ago noted that the Phillies were somewhat optimistic on him. I’m not as optimistic, and I’d imagine it would take at least $400K to keep him away from college, where he would be a 2 way player.

* Kevin Walter (ranked 2nd in CO and #134 overall by BA) is the real prize remaining for me after Frazier. He has a commitment to Boston College, which isn’t a traditional baseball powerhouse, at least in comparison to programs like LSU, Long Beach State, Arizona State, etc etc. Walter has the projection the Phillies love, at 6’6/220, and already has advanced secondary pitches. If his velocity ticks up like scouts believe, he has all the makings of a front of the rotation starter. He’s not going to come cheap, but if I’m the Phillies, he’s the guy I’m devoting my late round (think Cosart-esque) bonus money to.

* Musser (3rd ranked in IA) had injury issues, and I haven’t kept tabs on his progress this summer, but he didn’t excite me too much when I did my reading right after the draft.

* Chad Thompson, who fell in the draft because he was rehabbing an injury, is likely going to cost in the $350-550K range, and he has plenty of leverage left.

* Brian Pointer (ranked 11th in NV by BA) is a really intriguing guy, and this article from a few days ago indicated the Phillies have followed him closely this summer. Pointer is a big projection guy, and Oregon State has a good rep for keeping their recruits, so he will be a tough sign.

So here is my quick summary as the deadline approaches.

* The Phillies “have” to sign either Frazier or Allen
* If they don’t, they “have” to sign Palka AND Walter
* Signing both Frazier and Walter would be excellent business
* If the Phillies spent what they spent last year, they’d have about $500K to spend, which might mean Frazier only. But they spent much more than that in 2008, which shows they are capable of spending, and the successes of Brody Colvin and Jarred Cosart may have swayed upper management to the benefits of spending in the draft.

It should be a fun deadline day. I like a lot of what the Phillies have done already in this draft, as I mentioned back in June. If they sign 2 more guys that I’ve mentioned above, this will be a very good draft, even better than it already is. Stay tuned!

208 thoughts on “2010 Draft Signing Deadline Day

  1. The commissioner’s office to my understanding does not have the rights to reject signing bonuses due to being over their slot recommendations per the current CBA. The comissioner’s office as long as the team faxes them the bonus for their ‘approval’ is forced to approve it. Teams are not able to sign players to over-slot bonuses without the approval, but it’s just a formality.

    The power to the commissioner’s office comes from when they actually ‘approve’ that deal. This year more than others they are dragging their feet and announcing the over-slot deals closer to the deadline as ‘punishment’ for teams that ignore their slot recommendations. Delaying the approval is the only punishment they are able to give out, they can not deny a bonus that is submitted to them.

  2. 1. I see that comparison and I get depressed. Last year the Phillies spent 3.1 M (bottom 5 in Major League Baseball). This year so far the Phillies have spent 2.6M and that includes a first round pick they didn’t have last year. Frankly, for as large as the Major League payroll is and the record number of sellouts, etc. this team’s draft/amateur budget is, in my own personal opinion, an embarassment.

    2. Also, apparently, Frazier wants 1M to sign.

    3. I couldn’t care less about Brenton Allen. If history is any indication the Phillies have just as much success finding a toolsy OF for 200K either in the draft (Dominic Brown) or lesser yet in Latin America (Miguel Alvarez, Leandro Castro).

  3. Strange no real rumors about who is signing. this late in the process you would think there is at least 1 deal in place. Even if it did not leak from the Phils, usually the Kid leaks it.

  4. Agreed completely on Walter. I’d be quite surprised if Frazier doesn’t sign, so Walter is the one I’m really holding out hope for. BC is an ACC program, but it’s not exactly UNC, so it should be possible to get something done at a reasonable amount.

    Dumb question, but it’s a midnight deadline, right?

  5. Yep teams can negotiate through Monday up until midnight and if you get the agreement faxes/emailed/whatever they do now in to the league office by then you’re ok.

  6. FlyByNite, the power of the commissioner’s office I thinks comes by assigning perks like All Star games. Teams that toe the line on signing bonuses get more discretionary perks.

  7. Maybe I am wrong, but the bonus money for after the first round is higher than ever,for the kids who signed, never remember so many first round picks still insigned. We must remember these are unproven kids. That being said phillies really do need to get a couple of the pitchers signed, like frazier, and at least one other postion player

  8. I’d like to see the phils go hard after Walter and Frazier. Pitching is the name of the game. Position players are great to have but good young talented pitching is money well spent IMO.

  9. I am hoping we can get Frazier and Walter too. Even if it means the phillies spend a little bit of money.

  10. I generally agree about pitching being the number 1 priority until I watch another Cole Hamels gem wasted due to incompetent hitting. Still, without competent pitching 1-0 becomes an even more demoralizing, anti-competitive , 7/8/9-0 blowout loss.
    There’s always a balance that needs to be achieved but this is where scouting is so important. Sign the guys with the highest upside regardless of position.

  11. Frazier and Walter is the top scenario. If no Frazier, Walter and Chad Thompson is a must. Chad Thompson was rated higher than Brody Colvin going into their senior seasons.

  12. Does anybody know anything on LHP James Hodgskin? I read that the kid is really really good. I also read if he goes back to school he might emerge as a 1st round pick in 3 years. Does anybody know if he is going back to school or if they are trying to sign him? I would think he would be a high priority but no one seems to be talking about him. Any info would be helpfull.

  13. My understanding is that Hodgskin is already at Troy University. Where he was taken, it was pretty clear that he really was only a fallback in case Biddle backed out of his deal or something like that. Hodgskin was pretty much a lock to go to Troy.

  14. My understanding with Paquet was that he would probably take more money to sign than the Phillies (or probably most MLB teams) would want to pay him because he thinks he can turn into a top 2 round pick after going to an US college… He very well could, but I don’t think as of right now any MLB team wanted to give mid six figures.

  15. Rwg, i’d like the phils lean twards pitching. I like having talent at that position. FA’s at the MLB level like polanco 6 mill a year compared to Gil meche 5 year 55 mill I think if the phils don’t develope much hitters/fielders as long as they get the pitching I’m ok with it. I agree with your point getting the best talent regardless of position and the balance arguement. If two players are looking for the same money and the phils have a choice to go with a hitter or pitcher I’ll go with the arm. Considering their talent level is the same.

  16. You can always find a guy to play a field position and they’ll hit half decent in CBP. With our core hitters like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Vic, Polly and Ruiz we don’t necessarily need another good hitter. The game is all about pitching. You simply can’t have enough good arms. You can’t have too many good arms in your minor league system. They become a cheap core of your major league starting rotation as well as trade chips when there’s a need in a pennant race. I’d love to get Hinson signed, but I’ll be happy if they go over slot for pitchers.

  17. I’d like to see Hinson signed too. There aren’t a lot of strong prospects in the system right now at 3B, and I’d like to see them take a chance on him. Maybe he develops into a Casey Blake-esque player a few years down the road. I wouldn’t mind having that in the system.

  18. Not signing Hinson may have a lot to do with the smell from the supposed pre- and post- draft (or post- college playoffs) demands by the draftee/his dad.

    If the FO is upset about that –and it is true–how much longer do you think “dad” Hinson will continue to work for the Phils org?

  19. Nevermind. I read old news that someone posted as kinda new. It was the Rundle and White signings. Still, what do we need two more LH OFs for?

  20. Agreed pitching is and always will be king. However, we need infielders badly in our system…especially guys who can hit. Why not get both? Money? It always seems like a lot now but 3-5 years from now we all say “man, we should have paid for that guy. He was a bargain at that price. Look what they’re getting now.”

  21. I dont know the story behind Kyle Gibson who was our draft pick and didnt sign, but he is really stud prospect for minnesota. and ready to come up. Hope they get frazier to sign,

  22. I am very disappointed in Hinson. He would be a nice addition to our system. We need Frazier to sign and see what else comes along.

  23. The Nationals gave their 4th round pick a $2M signing bonus.

    I think the Phillies need to stop cooperating with the Commissioner’s office and just open up the checkbook. The Prisoner’s Dilemma makes sense when everyone (in the division) cooperates, but if the Nats are going to start spending big in the draft, the Phillies should absolutely be doing the same.

  24. Agreed PP! The Nats could be the team best prepared for the next 5 – 10 years. Let’s keep up with them.

  25. I still remain cautiously optimistic as it does look like the commissioner’s office wanted teams to hold any overslot signings as late as possible. Just because the Phillies have not announced any does not mean that they don’t have an agreement or two. The reality is that if a signing has not happened by the beginning of August they will not get much GCL time anyway.

    That being said, if the Phillies come out of this with only Frazier I will be disappointed. IMO every draft should have at least 4-6 overslot signings if you are a large budget team. Some of these could be guys like Inch where you spend an extra $150K to get a young arm you like. But some need to be Colvin and Cosart type signings that are high priced talents that need to be bought away from college. The challenge for our scouts is to find the kids who can be bought out. We did not do a great job of that last year with our 29th out of 30 signing budget. While I do believe we made good faith efforts to get Susac and especially Stewart, the fact is we did not get them and did not really have a backup plan after them.

    Hopefully the Phillies have a backup plan this year, as perhaps the most cost-effective talent investment is the $300K-$500K overslot signing. I am not a huge fan of overpaying, but it is the million dollar signings that usually come back to haunt.

  26. I stand by my position that it is no longer our desire to appease the MLB office that keeps us from spending. Rather Rube gives Marti a crappy budget because he doesn’t value the process. Rube won, Arbuckle/Wolever lost.

  27. Just me thinking out loud…I’m not sure he doesn’t value the process. I’m wondering if money is coming out of the minor leagues to fund the big payroll of the big team. If it’s all under one umbrella, will they rob Peter to pay Paul?

  28. I’m sure it’s not that they don’t value the process as the last few years show the value. Need to see the final results before you can pass judgment. Most teams do have constraints and its easy to miscalculate what it will take to sign someone. Doesn’t mean they didn’t try or they don’t value the process.

  29. I wish the Phillies ownership especially John Middleton who is a multibillionaire would open up their wallets. Don’t they realize that an exta 5 million in the draft can lead to a greater savings on salaries? If ownership allows the scouts to sign the players they want then our farm system will develop them well. Please get on the stick Phillies ownership as this is not Rube’s problem it is the “Group of Five’s ignorance.

  30. Our major league payroll is like the 5th largest and our draft spending looks like it will be the in the 5 lowest. I don’t think its a matter of constraint, its a matter of priority. Rube and I just disagree.

  31. When you have a core to a Championship team which is a proven winner, you invest the money there. If the choice is between making the Major League team right now as strong as possible (when we know they’re capable of winning the world series) or a couple more talented, high-upside prospects, I choose the proven winners.

    I understand the benefit of having a cost-controlled ace starting pitcher; I understand the benefits when these prospects all pan out. But you have a winning team right now – if you have a set amount of money, invest more there than into the draft… at the moment.

  32. That said, obviously the FO makes mistakes on how they spend their money… Baez’s salary would obviously be more beneficial if it were put into the draft.

  33. I wonder if Arbuckle is happier in Kansas City than he would be if he was with the Phils? On the one hand you’re in a playoff hunt, but then you look at what he was in charge of (player development) and you’re given a much shorter leash. Because of not having a big MLB payroll Kansas City is able to spend a lot more on player development.

    I personally think Rube is prioritizing wrongly and should be spending at least $3m-$5m more per season on the draft + international amateur fa’s. I think if you keep robbing Peter to pay Paul you wind up like the Cleveland Indians where you just keep adding older guys to an aging core and eventually the costs of fielding the team because sky high, you stopped spending as much on your farm system and you traded away a lot of prospects to try to sustain your run. Then bam you’re in the toilet for almost a decade.

  34. Perhaps – though oddly enough I bet Boston and the Yankees both end up in the Top 10 in draft spending.

  35. I said nothing about whether or not their budget should be bigger. All I said was IF they are operating with a fixed budget, I think for the next three years they should prioritize the big league team, even if it means not signing a couple of those high-upside draft picks.

    You’re not killing the farm. You still have the talented specs, just maybe not as many. You can get by with that for a few years, at which point you’ll then part ways with your core and bring up new guys and start spending more on the minor leagues again. Hopefully we’ll have another ring to go with that.

  36. The Phils spend right up to the amount they take in.
    There is a reason why John Middleton and the Buck family have money. They spend it on tangibles like Halliday, Oswalt, Utley, etc… Baez… who cares… do you see what they are paying Ruiz for the next few years? What they’ve paid Werth? They have put their money on proven performers (with a mistake or two mixed in) rather than 18 year old kids. This is a time to max out your major league.
    This is a site about the Phillies prospects and it is a great site. But never forget, it is all about the Phillies. And we could be like the Royals, Nationals or Pirates, signing players and hoping for the future or we could be a championship winning organization.
    My thought is that when Lidge, Ibanez and a couple of others are out – like next year, the Phillies will up their amateur spending, especially with the type “A” free agent Werth gathering them a couple of extra high draft picks.
    But now lets spend money on another World Championship.

  37. Nobody in their right mind goes through life without insurance. Drafting, signing and developing good young players at ALL positions give you insurance for the big club. It sure would have been nice to bring up a rising star to play 2B or SS this year when Jimmy and Chase went down. Instead we run out Castro and Valdez (who admittedly has done well) and we start the prayers. If we had a guy like Dom Brown who played middle infield, he would have been up in May.

    I’m not sure if they are feeding us a bunch of BS or not but the management insists there isn’t a budget for the draftees. They put a limit on the players worth and don’t go above it. Well, like I said in an earlier post, sometimes you need to spend more than you planned to get something of value. After all, in a few years, the prices will be a lot higher when you have to fill in with free agents who command million PER SEASON.

  38. Cant believe all the talk about them spending in the draft, I posted how they are bottom five since I believe 2004 and pp and mike77 rip me as dont know what i am talking about, in fact ask me not to post , becasue they said I dont know what i am talking about, I still dont understand the lack of spending in the draft and international market. But I am stupid so they would explain it,

  39. It doesn’t matter to me, what they spend. The last two seasons they had a system rated in the top half of the league, even while unloading ten (10) prospects for Blanton, Lee, and Halladay. Now they have traded a couple more pieces for Oswalt, and the system is still stronger than before they traded Cardenas+ for Blanton in 2008. They must be spending smarter than other teams. (Villar 100k, Singleton 200k, Knapp and Michael Taylor for slot)
    Spending smart is more meaningful than how much they spend. Detroit spends like drunk sailors every year, but their system is no better than the Phillies. That is what matters.
    As long as the system keeps producing commodities at the same rate, they should continue doing business the same way. Stop whining.

  40. Having a different opinion about how the Phillies conduct their business doesn’t constitute whining in my opinion. Sorry thàt we all don’t agree with you.

  41. Ha. Go getem Squire. He once called me out for saying Ruiz who made a corrtection to his swing while on the DL would be a .300 hitter the rest of the season. Turns out I was UNDERstating.

  42. Right now how many postion prospects are there at clearwater, reading , lv. and we cant sign a Hinson, let a gibson walk, workman, if workman signed isnt there a good chance he would be near ready by now and gibson is at triple a already, now sometimes these kids just won’t sign,but in the case of workman it was 75,000 difference, not much for a top pitching talent, maybe they will come through and sign some kids, but more really should be put into the draft, if we had someone to replace blanton or ibanez that money would keep a guy like werth,

  43. The Phillies scouts have done a commendable job with the limited resources they’ve been given. What a lot of us are saying is if they had more resources to work with the results would be that much better and possibly have more quality position prospects in the minors.

    The Phils try to go for position prospects who will sign relatively cheaply (250,000 or less) for over-slot and hope they get lucky and hit a home-run. It worked with Singleton and Brown, less-so with other names. The big money bonuses go to pitchers while you see the bats who hold to their high demands not get signed (Susac & Stewart last year). That’s not even to say who the Phillies scouting department would use draft picks on if the budget had an extra $2 or $3m in it.

    Right now they’re drafting players who they think have a chance to develop into something and fit the limited budget they’re working with. What a lot of us are saying is increase that budget and these same quality scouts would be able to draft guys off their ‘a-list’ instead of using the ‘b-list’.

  44. Fly,

    Good post. We are not whining or complaining about the picks the Phils have signed. They are doing a great job at drafting, signing & developing young arms. We just want MORE!!! We want them to ADD to the list and get some middle infielders who can field and hit AND some corner infielders & catchers who can field and hit bombs. Is that too much to ask???

  45. I cant believe people say well detroit spends money and they dont win. they have bad scouts, we have good scouts with a limited budject, increase the money and our scouts will show how good they can be with a decent amount to spend.

  46. How do you know if Detroit has bad scouts? That’s a pretty bold statement considering I’m guessing you probably don’t know one thing about Detroit’s scouting department. The spending numbers for the Phillies are a little misleading in that some years they didn’t have a first round pick, and therefore spent significantly less. If they had a first round pick last year, they would have spent around the average for MLB. I think the Phillies operate that they pay the guys that they want to pay and they trust their development system to bring these guys to the majors. Considering the amount of talent we’ve had in the system the past couple of years, I really don’t think we can dispute this.

  47. well if your spending all this money people are talking about then why dont you have great prospect, results are the answer. championship were are they.look you believe they spend fine, most of us dont think they put enough into it, paying ten million to fat joe because we dont have a pitcher ready hurts

  48. Why don’t you have great prospects? If you take away the Halladay trade, the original Lee trade, and the Oswalt trade, the Phillies would have the best farm system in baseball. Considering all of that, they still have some pretty damn good prospects and are probably top 10 in baseball. Think about what you say before you speak. Just because the Phillies choose to trade their prospects for number one pitchers doesn’t mean they don’t have great prospects.

  49. Sorry for my ignorance, but what is the phillies buget for scouting and player development? I see a lot of people complaining it’s not high enough. Could anyone post the correct number so I can base my opinion on fact instead of hearsay or misinformation. Thank you for your help.

  50. It seems to me the Phils have been doing a good job running the system..we have two guys in Utley and Rollins who I believe are the best middle infield combo in team history (not too worried about lack of depth)..I don’t think they need to go crazy like the Nationals and signed 3rd and 4th round picks for 1 m. The top half of the system is weaker because of trades but that has led to playoff appearances and a WS title. It is funny how I see people bash this team and their system when this is probably the best time in its history

  51. Nobody knows what their budget is. But it would seem their draft budget, if any, is in the 4.2m to 4.8 million range when they have a 1st round pick. Less, when they don’t have a 1st rounder, more when they have multiple high picks.
    They clearly do not like to overpay for prospects, right or wrong. My point is as long as they continue to acquire good prospects as they have the last 3-4 years, there is no need to complain about how they go about their business. If they had a lower ranked system, then I would complain also. They don’t. So all I can say is they know more than me.

  52. Nowheels, not only are you dumb, but now I see that you are a liar as well. I called you out because you said that Ruiz was one of the worst offensive catchers in the league and how the team should have kept Marson to avoid paying Ruiz’s salary. I pointed out Ruiz’s OBP and OPS to refute your ridiculous rant. Your so ignorant, you couldn’t figure out what OPS was.
    At no point have you said anything about swing mechanics. Just another voice in your head.

  53. I’m a little surprised Pointer is getting 3rd round money, but then again, the guy was committed to Oregon State for a reason. If they somehow add Frazier and Walter to this, then the Phillies have done a pretty good job here.

  54. I wonder if the phils chose pointer over Allen? If they got pointer for less money than Allen was demanding and they use it towards some more pitching I’m cool with that. I hope we hear that the phils get some more of these guys signed. I read the post on MLBTR and they only mentioned the agents name and no article source. Maybe they have more stuff cooking with other agents?

  55. I guess that’s it for Allen. Pointer probably got Allen’s money.
    Hopefully, it wasn’t an either or situation with Musser and Walter. Would like both, plus Frazier.

  56. nowheels please says:
    August 15, 2010 at 1:58 PM
    “Clearly you have to sign prospect way BEFORE you get rid of big contracts.”

    Pretty sure that’s why / how our government runs a deficit… the Phillies make a lot of money, but, by law, they are not allowed to print it.

  57. I think that the phils had high 3rd round money and they offered it to Allen / pointer and pointer took it. Musser maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think he is looked at to have the same value as a Frazier or Walter. Maybe the phils get one of the two done by mon. If they do I’ll be happy with either or. Hopefully the can sprinkle in some more of these musser type guys also.

  58. I like the Musser signing. He’s pitched well this summer for his HS team and has been throwing in the low 90s. Looks like the injury is a non-issue. Typical Phils draftee…was rising fast, an issue arose, other teams walked away. Nice job by our scouting team.

  59. I’d like to see them sign Thompson too. This musser deal looks like a smart move. Considering what they spent on the deal.

  60. Musser’s scouting report makes him sound like another possible Trevor May. Low 90s FB, above average curve. Third starter ability.

  61. Here’s an idea.

    Just stick to the discussion topics and lay off the personal attacks. That goes for everyone. Don’t reply to this, don’t continue the discourse, just focus on the facts.

  62. PP, Are 750 and 450 reasonable numbers to expect? If the players balk is it reasonable to expect the Phillies to move up? Pepperdine is very tough to turn down but BC not so much, IMO.

  63. Frazier makes it a credible draft.

    Frazier + 1 makes it a very good draft.

    Frazier + 2 or more makes it an awesome and exciting draft.

  64. The Nebraska folks will be heartbroken. Talked to a baseball guy of theirs this week and although he didn’t know if Musser would sign or not, the Husker coaches were sky high on the kid.

  65. FIVE HSers left in from the first 37 Rounds

    RD 5- 171- Frazier, Scott RHP- Upland HS, California
    RD 9 – 291- Allen, Brenton OF- Gahr HS, CA
    RD 19 – 591- Palka, Daniel 1B- Greer HS, South Carolina
    RD 20 – 621- Walter, Kevin RHP- Legacy HS, Colorado
    SIGNED – RD 21 – 651- Musser, Jonathan RHP- Dowling Catholic HS, Iowa
    SIGNED – RD 28 – 861- Pointer, Brian CF- Galena HS, Nevada
    RD 30 – 921- Gonzalez, Nicholas LHP- Leto HS, Florida

  66. 3 of 8 Signed including

    Signed — RD 1 – 027- Biddle, Jesse, LHP Germantown Friends School, PA

  67. Thanks for the info, gketch. Exciting!

    Late night theory: deals of that size were getting announced all week. Why only now, the day before the deadline, were these deals announced? Perhaps the Phils gave up on some bigger deals (i.e. frazier and allen) and moved on to these guys?

    Counter to that theory: these are late round overslot deals, whereas the overslot deals announced earlier this week were all picks from the first ten rounds and hence more palatable to the commissioner’s office?

  68. The scouting report on Pointer seemed to be average across the board. The consensus was that he would benefit from going to college. To me, that 350 would be better spent going toward Frazier and Walter, if that’s what it took. If those guys sign, fine. If not, and that money would have made a difference, I don’t know how this is a good sign.

  69. I don’t think the Pointer signing impacts the pitchers the Phillies want. It probably only impacts Allen. The Pointer signing could be considered a value signing. B Allen was not rated that much higher than Pointer. If they chose to give Pointer 350k instead of giving Allen 500k, that 150k might be the difference between signing/not signing Thompson or Walter.

  70. I agree with you mike77. This was a reasonable sign. I think playing for the phils he will develope quicker in their system compared to OSU. Baseball will be a fulltime job and he’ll have the best resources to use.

  71. Anyone think the August 15 signing deadline has gotten a bit ridiculous. While we’re worrying about the later round guys, half the first round is unannounced yet.

  72. I think the deadline is nuts, why do they have to lose the time between the draft and then, valuable time in the minors.

  73. The reason they waited this long to announce or leak it is that MLB doesn’t want the teams to announce the overslot deals until now. That way other guys can’t use what guys around them are making as leverage in getting their deal.

  74. I’m really surprised that there arnt more leaks about signing bonuses. Scott boros clients are usually the ones that you hear info on. Maybe cause he’s got a lot of high profile guys. I agree that the signing period should be moved up. I hope also the make some more changes to this system also.

  75. I think the pointer and musser signings are bad news for those who want frazier. I read that frazier is asking for a million dollars and that doesnt seem to be a direction the phils are going to go. Last year we gave close to a million to colvin but with no other prospects signed. I think the phils had to choose how to invest that million and decided it would be best to split it up amongst 3 players instead of just 1. Of course i hope i’m wrong , and i hope we get frazier done, walter too but im not getting my hopes up.

  76. Agree with Diamond Derby. Signing Frazier plus one more makes this credible. Pointer and Musser are both good signings. But top teams need 4-6 of these type signings in each draft, especially if they do not have a high first round pick or a bunch of sandwich picks to sign. Part of the formula for a good draft is money. And when you do not have high picks you sometimes need to spend a little more on overslot signings. Signing Frazier and Walter would still probably keep the total draft cost under $5 million, probably more in the $4.5 range. That is about where we should be as a big market club that has significant resources and also the allure of 2 NL pennants in a row to entice wavering prospects. This is also a great organization for developing HS arms. We just need to sign multiple HS arms to get a couple of major league pitchers in most cases.

  77. Pointer seems like the kid of bat we see the Phils sign and that is a kid who has holes and needs time to develop and isn’t that all ‘developed’ coming out of HS. They may have gone slightly higher than previous years (usually this guy gets signed for $200,000 to $250,000 by the Phils), which may be a reflection of not signing Frazier or Allen and thus not having a guy signed for the mid six figures so they threw an extra $100k at Pointer.

    What I mean by bat that isn’t developed is that you have guys who come out of HS and look primed and ready to take apart college pitching or be ready to step right into the minors. Adrian Cardenas is the last real example of the Phils having this kind of HS bat. Those guys are looking for close to $1mil to sign. The Red Sox drafted a bunch of these types this draft and probably won’t sign all of them, but they’ll likely sign 1 or 2.

    The Phils because of budget prioritizing only have so much to spend on the draft and they can’t draft those guys because they likely won’t sign them. Sometimes they do use draft picks on them (very late rounds) in case somehow the kid decides during the summer he’d much rather start playing pro baseball and accepts a lower signing bonus then teams thought he would.

  78. I think Phils should sign all 50 draft picks. More is better right? Then in 5 years all 50 will need to be protected on the 40-man roster so Phils do not lose their investment with ‘poor scouting’ teams drafting the Phils homegrown talent.

    As currently constructed (next 5 years) I would expect the Phillies to have a 40-man roster constructed like so (assuming Charlie will actually allow young guys in the bullpen):
    ~17 major league players with no options
    ~13 major league or ready AAA players
    (3 OF, 1 INF, 3 SP, 5 RP, eg Brown, Francisco, Mayberry, H.Garcia, Hamels, Kendrick, Carpenter, Worley, Mathieson, Bastardo, Zagurski, Escalona)
    ~5 hopeful prospects that need extra seasoning
    (eg Ramirez, Sanchez, Flande, DeFratus, Galvis, any toolsheds not quite ready)
    ~2 open spots for vet AAA callups/trades, 1 Rule 5, 2 DL guys

    My point is that even the best baseball systems have to gamble only on a certain number of players. Every organization would want to have the problem of ‘too many’ good prospects, and the failure rate is so high that signing many draft or international prospects is usually a good investment. But just signing ‘everybody’ may not be.

  79. Why do we have posters who go to the extreme and act like people who criticize the Phillies want them to sign every single draft pick? I just said the Red Sox drafted a lot more aggressively than the Phillies did and are likely not going to sign a lot of the picks. Does this mean the Red Sox should be criticized for only spending $8-$9m on this draft instead of $15-$20m and getting all the tough signs done? No. It just means they drafted guys at the top of their draft board REGARDLESS of salary demands and did it in such quantity that they know some of the top prospects will sign and some won’t.

    The idea that you’d have to protect everyone from a draft is fallacy because the bulk of a major league draft involves teams drafting players they don’t believe WILL EVER be on their 40man roster. College seniors who are just filling out holes in their minor league system. The flame-out rate is also very high and teams know guys they think have a chance to be on their 40-man roster someday may not even make it 1 full calendar year as a professional and be cut, or in some cases decide to hang it up themselves.

    What critics (and I count myself among them) of the Phillies draft spending would like to see is a few additional million added to their budget. Take out a Danny Baez and there you go. In order to let the Phillies scouts who have managed to find some diamonds in the rough have a little more freedom in whom they draft and sign. Instead of drafting this HS batter who has tools, but hasn’t shown anything and they think has maybe a 10% chance of success they draft a HS batter with tools who has shown something and they feel has a better chance of success, but would also command a significantly higher bonus.

  80. I believe delayed signing help the overpitched (practically all) . But probably hurts position players.

  81. Setting aside the GENERAL question of whether the Phillies should spend more, if Frazier really won’t sign for less than 1 million, then I don’t think you can blame the team for passing.

  82. Hard to say on Scott Frazier. Tyrell Jenkins was ranked #43 overall by BA and got $1.3M from the Cardinals. Taijuan Walker was ranked #70 overall by BA and got $800K from the Mariners. Frazier was ranked #85 overall on the same BA list, so anywhere from $700K to $1M would seem to be the logical ballpark for Frazier’s agent to be asking for. Not suggesting Frazier (or even Jenkins or Walker for that matter) is worth that kind of money. But that is the price that the market seems to be setting.

  83. I agree with LarryM. If Frazier wants 1 million to sign, they probably should pass. That kind of money might net Walter, Thompson and Hodgkins. One million would be a huge overspend on Frazier, who from all reports, needs a lot of work.
    What was the point of overdrafting Biddle, for slot, if you’re going to turn around and pay a lower ranked pitcher the same thing. If the Phillies were of the mind to spend 2.1 million on less than sure things, Biddle and Frazier, they could have drafted Ranaudo or one of the other higher upside players instead.

  84. “What was the point of overdrafting Biddle, for slot, if you’re going to turn around and pay a lower ranked pitcher the same thing.”

    What was the point of signing Knapp for 590K in the 2nd round and then giving the 08 a 38th rounder 550K?

  85. Are the Pointer and Musser signings confirmed? I only saw the MLBTR link. I haven’t seen anything regarding either player on the BA site.

  86. Yeah also yahoo sports is saying workman most likely wont sign, can understand that, how much more does he think he can get.

  87. “What critics (and I count myself among them) of the Phillies draft spending would like to see is a few additional million added to their budget. Take out a Danny Baez and there you go.”

    Why is that whenever someone talks about spending more on the draft they always point to someone like Baez as an opportunity to allocate resources but never mention not spending the money on someone like Gload or Werth?

    Sorry, but if you’re going to advocate transferring money from the big club to the draft, cherrypicking bad FA signings to make that case is just a bad as pointing to failed big $$$ draft signings who become major busts (see Arizona and Matt White $10M).

    Signing draft picks and signing FA’s both come with certain risks. Obviously the draft picks are bigger risks while the FA’s are more expensive when they miss.

    You can make the argument that the Phillies should be more aggressive with spending in the draft but as was shown back in June during the draft thread, there isn’t much evidence that the Red Sox or other high-spending teams have shown much greater success with their approach to the draft than have the Phillies with their more targeted approach.

    In the end, the draft is about getting players who can help the team win and the Phillies have had just as much success doing that over the last few years as has any other team in baseball.

  88. I think the Phillies scouts are better than the Red Sox scouts. I don’t understand why it seems like it’s a crazy idea/theory to suggest that if you give the same guys running the Phillies Player Development an extra $2m to use on the draft that it would be a a bad idea, that it would not be a positive for the organization.

  89. I’m with FlyByNite.

    I think it is faulty logic that big spending by the Red Sox (or any specific team) hasn’t resulted in winning big thus big spending offers no value to the draft process. That is like saying that because the Phillies screwed up the MLB draft for over a decade, the MLB draft has no value.

  90. The Washington Nationals signed 12th rounder, LHP Robbie Ray for $799K. The Nationals are spending big again. Not sure if that impacts Frazier’s asking price at all.

  91. Signs you have a pre-teen girl… You see the name Robbie Ray and think of Hanna Montana…. le sigh… Where has my life gone?

  92. utley26, BA has both as signed on their database with bonuses – Musser 300k, Pointer 350k. This is probably subscriber content.

  93. Matt Gelb just tweeted

    magelb #Phillies have signed draft picks RHP Kevin Walter (20th), RHP Jonathan Musser (21st), and OF Brian Pointer (28th). All over slot.

  94. This also from Matt Gelb

    magelb The last remaining big name is fifth rounder Scott Frazier, a RHP. Yahoo! reported he wants $1 million. Phillies still working on it.

  95. Chicken Egg – Egg Chicken.

    What matters is results. The type of players currently in our low minors with careful scouting and outlays seems to be proof of a good scouting/drafting team at the moment.

    Throwing money at a problem rarely works. This said we all would love to see twice as much money spent by the Phillies each year because it would FEEL so good right off the bat. The question is 1, 3, 5 years down the road.

    I was pondering this. What if you were a team like the Phillies and had a consistently low 1st Round Draft Pick. You could go really HIGH like Porcello,
    or say to yourself “This year the talent is thin, and the top hyped prospects all have dollar signs for their eyes, way beyond our ability to project if they will pan out.
    Why not have a draft strategy that does not go heavy in the High Priced first rounds (grab a Dugan or a Biddle at a fair price), and spend early round money finding 2-3 low rounders for the same cash outlay.”

    Next year that may be out the window if the Draft is really deep – but the last 2 years it has not been.

  96. cool, good news on walter! I’m so greedy i want two more to sign. give us Chad Thompson and Frazier!

  97. FOUR HSers left in from the first 37 Rounds
    4 of 8 HSers Signed Including:

    SIGNED — RD 1 – 027- Biddle, Jesse, LHP Germantown Friends School, PA
    RD 5 — 171- Frazier, Scott RHP- Upland HS, California
    RD 9 — 291- Allen, Brenton OF- Gahr HS, CA
    RD 19 — 591- Palka, Daniel 1B- Greer HS, South Carolina
    SIGNED — RD 20 – 621- Walter, Kevin RHP- Legacy HS, Colorado
    SIGNED — RD 21 – 651- Musser, Jonathan RHP- Dowling Catholic HS, Iowa
    SIGNED — RD 28 – 861- Pointer, Brian CF- Galena HS, Nevada
    RD 30 — 921- Gonzalez, Nicholas LHP- Leto HS, Florida

  98. Jr, thanks. I am a BA subscriber, but didn’t check that page. I have just been checking their draft blog.

    anyway, nice to see some progress here. Like PP said earlier in the week, this is how the phils operate. Hopefully there will be more good news in the next 6+ hours

  99. Now that they signed Walter and Musser it is a decent draft. My fear was if they were forced to give Frazier 1million, they wouldn’t sign anybody else. I don’t care how much they sign Frazier for now. They got a good haul.
    By my calculations they are up to 3.5-3.7 million on the draft. They have another 1 million to spend.

  100. 4.5-5 mill is a fair amount I feel to get there picks signed. If they go over that amount great, if they spend 5 mill I don’t think the phils could be called cheap.

  101. Looks like the Red Sox will also get Garin Cecchini signed…

    #RedSox sign 4th-rder Garin Cecchini for $1.31 million

    Good signing day for the Red Sox. They just need to bag Renaudo and that would be an outstanding haul.

  102. Red Sox will probably spend more on their first 6 guys then the Phillies entire draft budget.

    1 20 Kolbrin Vitek 2B/OF Ball State Ind.
    1s 36 Bryce Brentz OF Middle Tennessee State Tenn.
    1s 39 Anthony Ranaudo RHP Louisiana State La.
    2 57 Brandon Workman RHP Texas Texas
    3 110 Sean Coyle SS Germantown Academy, Fort Washington, Pa. Pa.
    4 143 Garin Cecchini SS Barbe HS, Lake Charles, La. La.

  103. does anyone know the dollar amount they signed Walter for? 1 million may seem like a lot for the Phils to do, but Colvin signed just under that figure last year, I’m glad they are still working on trying to sign Frazier, you can never have enough pitching. Also, the way the team has been able to trade for top of the rotation starters lately by continually re-stocking the farm with quality talent, hopefully the FO has learned a valuable lesson that others have been beggin for them to adhere to.

  104. The Red Sox are a perfect example of spending lots of money.

    Even though they have done that, the last 2 years have not panned out for them so far.

  105. I think its still 60/40 Frazier signs.

    Even if he doesn’t, I’ll be happy with this draft haul.

    Not sure if I’ll have a detailed writeup later tonight, I’ll try.

    Edit —> No dollar amounts on Walter yet, but I’d guess between $350-500K

  106. FlyByNite says:
    August 16, 2010 at 4:11 PM
    “I think the Phillies scouts are better than the Red Sox scouts.”

    And you reach this conclusion how?

  107. The Red Sox just started spending ‘a lot’ of money on the draft in 2008. I think it will be a few seasons before you see how that plays out, but the Phillies have better scouts than the Red Sox. If the Phillies scouts had the Red Sox resources they’d be doing a heckuva lot better job than the Red Sox IMO.

  108. I reach that conclusion by looking at the Red Sox farm system and then looking at the Phillies farm system and I think the Phillies farm system has been the better system even with the Red Sox outspending the Phillies internationally this decade and starting in 2008 the Red Sox began seriously outspending the Phillies in the draft as well.

    The Phillies scouts do a good job finding guys with upside they can think can turn into something and working with a very limited budget to do so. The Phillies ‘significant’ over-slot guys tend to be $200,000 to $300,000. Every once in awhile they may go high to mid-six figures. Other teams will sign over-slot guys for $1m… Their ‘throw-away/back-up plan’ over-slot guys that they sign for $400,000 to $500,000 are closer to how much the Phils will spend for the #1 priced over-slot guy.

    The fact that the Phillies scouts can continue to find gems under the more limited budget both draft (and internationally free agent wise) tells me they’re better than the Red Sox.

  109. The Red Sox also fall into the group of the Yanks & Mets where the minor leaguers are hyped up a lot more than other teams players…..but I would also love to see the Phils spend the kind of $$$$ on the draft that the Sox do.

  110. Gotta give the Red Sox credit though, they have one hell of a draft class this year, and it seems like they’re signing most if not all of their big-ticket picks.

  111. Nobody says:
    August 16, 2010 at 4:17 PM
    I’m with FlyByNite.

    “I think it is faulty logic that big spending by the Red Sox (or any specific team) hasn’t resulted in winning big thus big spending offers no value to the draft process. That is like saying that because the Phillies screwed up the MLB draft for over a decade, the MLB draft has no value.”

    On the other hand, I think it is faulty logic to state than even though there is no tangible evidence that teams that are spending more money are seeing better results than the Phillies means that the Phillies should just spend the money anyway. No wonder the country is $11 trillion in debt and growing.

    In the world of other people’s money, I’m all for spending every dollar they have. But since it appears the organization isn’t planning to become a charity operation, it then becomes a question of where best to allocate their funds.

    So which is better, $1M for a draft pick or $1M for Ross Gload off the bench for the ML team.

  112. Sir Alden,

    No argument in that respect, however during the draft there was alot of speculation that there was no way the Red Sox would get anywhere near getting the first 6 guys signed. If they get them all signed I say kudos to the Red Sox.

  113. From what I read the Sox are probably going to whiff on Coyle, who told them he wanted a mil from the start. So for all the great they do they still may miss out on a couple talented kids because of their budget.

  114. coyle just sign for 1.3 million a million overslot, he is from german town academy small kid 5’9 dont know a lot about him./

  115. 3up3kkk says: So which is better, $1M for a draft pick or $1M for Ross Gload off the bench for the ML team.

    This shouldn’t have to be an either / or proposition. More of the Phillies competitors are finding a way to do both. If the Phillies don’t want to play by the rules of this game then they should sell out like the Carpenters did in 1983 when they thought things got too crazy.

    I am not arguing these kids are worth the money. Heck, we know for a certainty that most of them won’t be. But at some point the market is set by what teams are willing to pay…not what the Phillies would like to pay.

  116. The Red Sox top prospect is deemed to be Casey Kelly who was probably promoted too soon to AA (since he’s 20 and had only pitched a handful in A+ last year), well Kelly has been lit-up this year. His ERA is somewhere between 5.00 & 6.00 I believe. It also cost the Red Sox $3mil to sign him.

    Honestly this year’s draft that the Red Sox have all these names that have been listed. A FAN could have made that draft. I think when you see a team like the Phillies with their scouting department working under a limited budget find and develop steals that nobody had rated pretty highly except them, that shows talent. Would I like to see the Phillies scouts given an extra $2m a year to work with? Heck yea. Am I impressed yearly on what the Phillies scouts do with their limited budget? Definitely.

    Look at Kelly Dugan. I hated the pick last year and he’s doing nothing but destroy the GCL(yea it’s GCL), but he looks like he can actually play. Altherr looked like just another toolsy OF type and he showed a lot before he got hurt this year. Singleton turned into one of the best hitting prospects in the lower minors and we know see Andrew Susac destroying the Cape Cod league and likely being a 1st round pick when he’s next draft eligible. If the Scouts had an extra $2m to work with Andrew Susac would probably be in the Phillies organization. The Red Sox outspent the Phils by about $4mil last year in the draft. I’d still take the ’09 Phils draft over the ’09 Red Sox draft. That’s how much better the Phillies scouts are.

    Give them extra resources and they could be churning out prospects like Expos in the 90s. How hard is it for a scout to draft the guy everyone considers best player available and who slides down because of money? Now how hard is it to find a guy who may be one of the best hitting prospects in low-A with their 9th round pick who teams overlooked because he didn’t hit enough his senior year in HS?

  117. Deadline to sign draft picks is midnight. Top unsigned pick is 5th-rounder Scott Frazier. Phils still working, but it does not look good.

    – Zolecki on Twitter.

    That’s discouraging.

  118. Well Nobody, when you have a budget, there is always an either/or decision and since the Phillies ML payroll is near the tops in all of baseball, it would seem that’s where they’ve made their call.

    And since they are competing quite well against their other competators both at the major league level and in their minor league talent I have a hard time knocking their decision making at this time.

  119. Talked to a college coach last week who said Coyle is the real deal, sort of like a Pedroia clone.

  120. 3up3kkk maybe you’re right. Maybe not. At the MLB level I see a great team whose best players are 1st Rounders mixed with a few Top 200-300 guys.

    Most of the potential highly drafted replacements at similar levels from 5 or 6 drafts of 2003 thru 2008 have been traded away over the last 24 months. I am not saying they were bad trades…they don’t seem to be.

    However, I do think re-plenishing thru the farm system has become a more urgent need with all the trades. Now is not the time to be dickering over $75K with prospects like Workman or even an additional $200K or $300K for prospects like Stewart, Susac, Frazier, etc.

    In the grand scheme of things an additional $2M per year of spending on the draft is chump change in the overal budget.

  121. I kind of assumed when I saw they signed Walter that they do not expect Frazier to sign. I’m guessing Frazier thinks it will go down like Colvin did – he’s on campus, ready to go, then the Phils come in with the big number to pry him loose. We’ll see if that is what happens, but I think the Phils have moved on or at least covered themselves with Musser and especially Walter.

  122. My take on Frazier / Walter is that any money saved on Walter could / should be spent on other players. From a player standpoint Walter might replace Frazier, but from a dollar standpoint I am guessing Walter will cost at least $200K less.

  123. $2M is not chump change anywhere. You can spend that money on additional scouting, additional resources, piggy bank it for the next cycle. It’s very easy to spend other people’s money.

  124. $2M is chump change when your total annual spend is over $150M.

    This is magnified now that the Phillies have the chance to replace expiring contracts of Lidge, Ibanez, Baez, etc with homegrown talent after 2011 season.

  125. I’m not assuming anything in terms of signings or not until midnight, or until the Phillies put out a press release saying they are done.

    So many moving parts in this process. Best to just wait and see.

  126. 3up3k, is exactly right. It does not matter what side you come down on, regarding the draft budget. If the team is consistently among the best minor league systems, there should not be all this silly complaining about how much they spend. If they were like the Mets(don’t have talent and don’t spend) then I could see the complaints.
    Acquiring the most talent is not enough? You have to buy retail in order for it to count? Silly.

  127. No. But after trading 16 players, and sacrificing a 1st round pick, representing the heart of 5 or 6 draft classes over the last 24 months…I think the quality of the draft picks going forward matters. ALOT. Even more than it used to now that the core of the major league team is in their 30’s.

    I will never find the argument convincing that a little more money spent in this regard would be of no help whatsoever.

  128. im also with FlybyNite…I also thought of Hannah Montana when i read about Robbie Ray…then laughed out loud when i read his comment! Go Phils! Go PhuturePhils I really love this site and MOST of the comments!

  129. if the phils close the book on frazier, is it crazy to think the phils would sign 1 maybe 2 other guys as a back up plan?

  130. and the Phils have Drew’s brother Mike… It’s the next generation of Phils having Mike Maddux and other teams have Greg Maddux. We always seem to have the crappier brother

  131. I agree with Nobody, this year’s 10 Red Sox names seem to be impressive. We both agree that Phillies 08 and 09 are currently doing better than the Red Sox 08 and 09.

  132. It is hard to judge minor league development and spending because you don’t know what teams really spend on several areas especially the international market. No comprehensive data readily available.

    Phils have kind of waxed and waned on the international markets but never really made a consistent large commitment under this ownership group. I would bet if you had readily available figures that were reliable the Phils would be somewhere slightly under MLB average (say around 18-20) in terms of spending in international development the past 3 years.

  133. I don’t think Pepperdine starts anytime soon. I don’t think Frazier is on a campus. Still crossing my fingers. Frankly given the likelihood of hard slotting in the next CBA, I think teams are overpaying for the HS pitchers. Phillies are playing chicken with Frazier right now. If nobody blinks, he’s off to college.

  134. Curious question if there are relatively more way overslot signings this year?
    I get the impression there is and believe it is due to the escalating cost of veteran free agents. With down economy, teams are realizing the incredible value of younger resources. The $1M Gload is no longer worth passing on a hot shot high school arm (or 5).

  135. Well 2 hours to call some of the other picks and increase their offers by what you were negotiating with Frazier with. Get somebody signed…

  136. The only thing pp, a 50k over slot deal before didn’t really seem like over slot, but when you get a 250k bonus, now that’s when people really start noticing (I choose an arbitrary number to prove the point) but I think the reality is PP is right, but so is phx because the “perception” is there are more signings.

  137. I gotta say I’m pretty bummed that we didn’t get Frazier. Seems like we made out decently but I was real psyched for some Frazier.

  138. I’m glad they got Musser and Walter, but if they don’t get Frazier, I won’t pretend that is disappointing.

    That would mean no 5th rounder, no 9th rounder, no 13th rounder, and no 19th rounder? Okay draft but nothing special. Especially considering all the college signs that could have been mailed in the day of the draft.

  139. Well ‘over-slot’ doesn’t seem to mean as much this year as other years. One reason could be draft bonuses tend to go up from year to year. MLB has kept the post 5th round slot recommendation at $150,000 the past two drafts and in ’07 and I think ’06 it was $165,000.

    So when you see the Phils or any team sign a 10th round pick for $200,000 they’re really massively busting slot. They’re giving him maybe $50,000 more than what slot would recommend.

    I think the market this year is showing that slot for 5th round and above should probably be more around $250,000 to $300,000.

  140. Gavin Floyd and his brother Mike drove down to South Carolina from Maryland and was on campus the night before he was to attend classes. The Phils and Floyd’s agent, Ron Shapiro, had broken off discussions at 6:30 earlier that evening. The Phils never budged and believed it was over and Floyd would be unsigned. Shapiro called back a few hours later and asked the Phils to “come up a little bit.” Wade seeked permission and added $250,000 to the 4 million original offer. The was done and reported in the media at 1:30 am. From what was written afterwards, Floyd was not going to college and didn’t want to. They even gave his brother $65,000 to sign.

  141. Not getting Frazier is pretty disappointing, it just goes to show that as awesome as the 2008 draft was and the results they’ve gotten from it. They still haven’t changed.

    One would think they’d see guys like Gibson & Workman who they could have had for reasonable amounts go to college and blossom and into 1st/2nd round picks, and see that they stopped a couple future guys like that Cosart & Colving and they’d be more willing to spend but alas they aren’t.

  142. Frazier was no worse than the 2nd best player they drafted. Also they took him in an unprotected round so we get squat for a swing and a miss. No way to sugarcoat this I think. This sucks.

  143. Look, if these goofballs don’t want to sign with a class organization like the Phillies, so be it. Have fun when the Pirates or the Royals draft you.

  144. Gotta keep in mind that next year’s draft is loaded (it’s being called the best in 20 years). Hopefully the phils have a larger budget allotted for the 2011 draft than they did in 2010.

    Werth should be a Type A free agent, so assuming they don’t sign any Type A free agents (a pretty good assumption since they already have a ton of money committed for 2010), they should have all of their picks, plus supplemental round pick(s).

    Still over an hour to get some other guys signed. Gotta reserve judgement until this thing wraps up.

  145. To those who feel the loss of Frazier, take pleasure that in the ’11 draft they will have 3 picks in the first 2 plus supp. rounds.

    Then the $$s might flow more readily.

    How about filling up the middle infield, 3rd base, and catcher then?…or at least in the first 3 rounds. They should be ready for such prime choices and “saving up” for their then-contributions to the scattered youth who love baseball.

  146. I think that people are really underrating the Musser signing. I personally really like Musser and think he could turn into a legit pitching prospect for us.

    During the 2010 Spring Top Prospect Showcase the Perfect Game USA reported this on Musser:

    Jonathan Musser is a 2010 RHP with a 6’5”, 205 lb. frame from Waukee, IA who attends Dowling Catholic. Well proportioned ideal pitcher’s build. Simple delivery with good pace, good balance and rhythm, accelerates arm well, repeats high 3/4’s release point. Steady 90 mph fastball, flashed plus hard run/bore action at times, used FB effectively to spots, big breaking downer CB, change has occasional cutting action. Dominated, continues to keep getting better every outing, feel for pitching was impressive. Good student, signed with Nebraska.

    They gave him an official score of 10.0

  147. I’d be curious, for those of you with access to BA’s signing database, how many HS pitchers have received $1m or more. I don’t think it’s that many, and most of them are in the 1st or 1st supplemental round. My thinking is that Frazier has priced himself wrong and that most overslot HS pitchers are in the $400k-800k range.

    I obviously have no idea what numbers have been exchanged, but if it were me and I turned down $750k and then realized at 12:01am on 8/17 that I was a freshman at Pepperdine…well that would be a bit of a let down.

  148. I don’t know. You know Pepperdine is in Malibu right? I can think of worse situations to be in than being stuck there as a Freshman

  149. The optimist in me still is holding out hope there will still be some last minute deal with Frazier.

    But personally I am kinda over the “well maybe they’ll spend more money next year” hope. I have been there and done that. Every August for a number of years I have tried to rationalize such a meager and modest draft budget.

    At this point, I am assuming the Phillies were at least at $700K with Frazier. If not then they were borderline insulting him (based on what his closely ranked peers have gotten so far). If they don’t sign Frazier, and also don’t spend any of that money they might have paid him on other unsigned draft picks, I don’t see that as anything but a negative all around. On multiple levels.

    Like I have said previously, if they didn’t spend more money this year, after trading 16 of their best prospects over the past 24 months, after forfeiting a 1st round pick in 2009, after maybe missing on their 1st rounder in 2007, and missing on maybe the first 2 picks in 2008, and with a core MLB team that is now aging…their will never be a good reason to spend more (in their mind).

    They spend what they are required to spend…and never much more than that.

  150. BostonPhan,

    When you look at some of Frazier’s HS comps…

    $750K – Tyler Green (8th) – #120 overall by BA – signed by DiamondBacks
    $799K – Robbie Ray (12th) – NR in Top 200 by BA – signed by Nationals
    $800K – Taijuan Walker (1S) – #70 overall by BA – signed by Mariners
    $975K – Drew Cisco (6th) – #75 overall by BA – signed by the Reds
    $1.16M – Jesse Biddle (1st) – #116 overall by BA – Signed by Phils
    $1.3M – Tyrell Jenkins (1S) – #43 overall by BA – signed by Cardinals

    ??? – Scott Frazier (5th) – #85 overall by BA

  151. Frazier was obviously not being reasonable for his asking price. But it does make u wonder why others havent been signed with the money not spent on Frazier.

  152. I posted my official review.

    Not getting Frazier is disappointing, but with the Phillies track record in the later rounds, I’m happier they spread that money over three high ceiling players instead of allocating it on one player.

    I wish they’d have signed Frazier plus the other 3, but if the choice was those 3 or Frazier (which it apparently was), I’m glad they chose the 3 over the 1.

  153. Thanks Nobody. I also had noted:

    $2m – AJ Cole (4th) – #16 overall by BA – signed by Nationals
    $1.6m – Luke Jackson (1S) – #126 overall by BA – signed by Texas
    $1.1m – Cam Bedrosian (1st) – #56 overall by BA – signed by LAA
    $983k – Peter Tago (1S) – #36 overall by BA – signed by Colorado
    $800k – Jason Adam (5th) – #54 overall by BA – signed by KC
    $775k – Aaron Sanchez (1S) – #59 overall by BA – signed by Toronto
    $590k – Cody Buckel (2nd) – #157 overall by BA – signed by Texas – a Pepperdine commit!
    $485k – Nick Kingham (4th) – #186 overall by BA – signed by Pittsburgh

    Stetson Allie will be up there, as will Taillon if he signs. The point being, most of the $1m guys are in the 1st round or two. Cisco looks like the outlier.

    Good to remember that BA rated Perci Garner #49 this draft.

  154. Every team has a few bad big FA signings, and if John lackey is your worst you’re not doing too bad. Look at Adam Eaton with the Phils.

  155. Correction;

    That’s 4 picks by the end of the 2nd round.

    Lotsa good ones next year to chose from.

  156. You you should make changes to the page name 2010 Draft Signing Deadline Day | Phuture Phillies to more specific for your subject you write. I loved the blog post however.

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