Lakewood Weekly Report (8/9-8/15)

Recap: Lakewood went 5-1 this week, a combination of continued excellent starting pitching and some offensive outbursts (three games of 10+ runs including a 17-run explosion). They’re now 30-18 in the second half, 3.5 games ahead of Hickory. Overall, the ‘Claws are 72-46, the second best record in minor league baseball (Durham is 74-47).

Hitters: Several big weeks–Jeremy Barnes had the best week of his career with 8 XBH and 8 RBI. Leandro Castro and Sebastian Valle also put up good numbers.

  • Michael Dabbs: 2-9, 2B, RBI, SB
  • Jonathan Singleton: 8-27, 3B, HR, 5 RBI, SB, 3 K / 1 BB
  • Jiwan James: 8-28, 3B, 3 RBI, 7 K / 2 BB
  • Jeremy Barnes: 10-21, 6 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 K / 5 BB
  • Alan Schoenberger: 4-15, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 E
  • Leandro Castro: 9-28, 2B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2K / 0 BB, 2 E
  • Sebastian Valle: 7-19, 3 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 K / 3 BB
  • Anthony Hewitt: 2-13, HR, 2 RBI, 3 K / 0 BB

Notes: The 17 runs and 5 homers on Tuesday both tied club records…the Blueclaws added Gabe Suarez from the Newark Bears this week…Blueclaws among the league leaders–James (5th in runs, 2nd in hit, 8th in Ks, 2nd in CS), Barnes (7th in 2B, 7th in BB, 9th in OBP), Castro (T-2 in triples, T-5 in RBI), Valle (T-8 in HR, 10th in RBI), Singleton (10th in BB, 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG, 10th in AVG, 4th in OPS), and Hewitt (1st in K).

Pitchers: Very good week for most of the prospects in Lakewood. Colby Shreve bounced back from a shaky start to throw five no-hit inning on Sunday. Trevor May and Julio Rodriguez both posted excellent K/IP and K/BB ratios over the last week.

  • Brody Colvin: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 K / 1 BB
  • Jonathan Pettibone: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 3 K / 0 BB
  • Colby Shreve: 10 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 10 K / 1 BB
  • Josh Zeid: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K / 0 BB
  • Luke Wertz: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 K / 1 BB
  • Ebelin Lugo: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 K / 0 BB
  • Trevor May: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 10 K / 2 BB
  • Julio Rodriguez: 7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 13 K / 1 BB

Notes: Brody Colvin has now given up just three earned runs over his last seven starts, although he has allowed a comparatively astonishing 12 unearned runs over that same stretch…Trevor May has increased his K/9 by 1 (11.6 to 12.6) since coming down from Clearwater, but has more than doubled his K/BB ratio (1.5 to 3.7)…’Claws among the league leaders: Colvin (8th in ERA, T-1 in GS, 4th in IP, 7th in K, 10th in WHIP), Shreve (3rd in WHIP), Wertz (T-8 in holds), and Lugo (T-8 in holds).

12 thoughts on “Lakewood Weekly Report (8/9-8/15)

  1. Can someone who’s seen Colvin hypothesize as to why he gives up so many unearned runs?

    It has to be more than bad/weird luck… right?

  2. May still seems a bit wild, but his K numbers are really dominant.He looks like a definite stud pitcher for the team.

    As for Colvin and all of the unearned runs, I have a very unproven hypothesis that Lakewood’s official scorer is quick to give out an error (look at the high error totals for the team the past few years), which could attribute to the high amount of unearned runs – still, you would think that other pitchers would have noticeable amounts of unearned runs allowed. My guess is that is may be nothing more than a statistical fluke.

    – Jeff

  3. Perhaps it’s a statistical fluke that these “fake errors” occur when Colvin is pitching with RISP…that’s a good point about the LW scorer.

    Maybe the official scorer loves Brody Colvin (who doesn’t?) and gives the fielder an error when he lets a run score! Haha. Probably not…

  4. I think some of it is likely due to Colvin being around 50% groundball rate for the season on balls in play, but he still has a significantly higher % of unearned runs than say Cosart does. Cosart does generate more ground balls(closer to 55%) of balls in play, but Cosart also is more of a strike-out pitcher generating almost 2 more K/9 than Colvin which would then reduce the amount of balls hit during a game.

    I’m not sure it’s Lakewood’s official scorer because Villar had 42 errors in 99 games. Since traded he’s played 12 games at short for the Jays A+ team and has 8 errors in those 12 games. So since the errors have carried over to another team I can’t really think you can fault the scorer. I just think Lakewood has a very erratic infield defense particularly at SS & 3B this season. Singleton by all accounts is a very good fielder at 1B and while Villar does get to a lot of balls he’s also caused a lot of errors while he was at Lakewood and his replacements have been equally as bad or worse.

  5. One way of telling would be from first hand accounts whether or not Lakewood’s OS is a bit harsh. I can only speak from one game’s experience two years ago, when an error was given to Mattair on a play that would’ve required Scott Rolen type range to make.

    – Jeff

  6. Could it have to do with the field conditions, too? What do other teams’ error totals look like? Maybe the field conditions are poor and the ball takes weird hops often or something…

  7. …and of course, this now has nothing to do with Colvin’s strange unearned runs total. It’s mostly just me being curious about why error totals are so high. It doesn’t answer why those errors seem to occur when Colvin is pitching with runners on base.

  8. Apologize if this was covered elsewhere, but I’m a semi-frequent lurker and a very infrequent poster here. But my God, I was at the Blueclaws game last night and Singleton hit an ABSOLUTE BOMB to dead center field. Straight-away center field, directly over the 400 foot sign. A very impressive display of raw power. Hard to believe he’s 18 (maybe 19 by now?). It was my first time seeing him play and what struck me was his size coupled with such a baby face. This kid will be a beast when he fills out, which is an odd thing to say given he’s already pretty big. They auctioned the players’ jerseys after the game and I wanted to stick around and see what his jersey sold for, but I had to leave. Anybody stick around?

  9. Interesting with Colvin and the unearned runs. I remember back 10-12 years ago Carlton Loewer had a similar season. Back then we rationalized that it was the pace of his game that contributed to all of the defensive lapses behind him. Surely he got his share of strikeouts, but the pace of the game was ridiculously slow and the staff believed that contributed to the shoddy defense behind him.

  10. Minor league defense is awfully irratic. I saw Reading play on Saturday and it was brutal to watch. Pop flys dropping in, everything between third and short finding the hole. That’s why defensive independent statistics are so, so important.

  11. Here’s the result of too much time on my hands and my astonishment at all of Colvin’s unearned runs:

    Colvin: 64 runs, 43 ER (67% earned). 57% earned at home, 76% on the road.
    Lakewood as a whole: 78% earned
    SAL: 82% earned

    So for whatever reason, it does appear that Colvin has allowed unearned runs at a much higher rate than both Lakewood and the SAL as a whole. Now the question is, why?

    I looked at all unearned runs he’s allowed this year, and the “causes” break down as follows:
    -2 runs scored on errors after Colvin had been pulled mid-inning
    -4 runs scored on Colvin’s own errors
    -2 runs on errors by outfielders
    -3 runs due in part to catcher’s interference
    -6 runs due to typical errors
    -4 runs after a Villar error, although it took Colvin seven batters to get two outs after the error.

    After all this, I conclude that this is all the result of chance. If you take away his own errors and a catcher’s interference, he’s more or less in line with Lakewood’s rate as a whole.

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