Reader Top 30; #28

2010 Reader Top 30

Three spots remain, as Jonathon Villar just barely edges out Jesus Sanchez for #27. Anthony Hewitt got a mention as a write-in, so I’ll add him to the next round. Here’s the schedule for the coming week. We’ll finish #29 and 30 early next week, I hope to have my SONAR piece on corner outfielders done, and then hopefully by the end of next week my personal Top 30 list will be posted. When we wrap up the Reader Top 30, I’ll put together a collaboration of individual top 30’s from those that submit them, but don’t send them yet. So, check below for #28…

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21. Jon Pettibone, RHP
22. Yohan Flande, LHP
23. Leandro Castro, OF
24. Colby Shreve, RHP
25. Zach Collier, OF
26. Michael Schwimer, RHP
27. Jonathon Villar, SS
28.

53 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #28”

  1. Vote for Jesus Sanchez, though he may be a seemingly smallish RHP, maybe his status as a former Catcher, gives him insight into the pitching thing, and he can make it all the way to the top. Likely a relief candidate, though if he be able to start they could consider him as a deep reserve 3rd catcher and promote the use of the back-up Catcher as a pinch-hitter.

    The inclusion of so many pitchers on the list, may mean you have to account for that potential, and most won’t make it. Don’t think that position players should be unnecissarily downgraded for not making lists of this sort , for this reason, and it appears some positioh players with promise will be excluded from this list.

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  2. Julio Rodriguez,
    Most upside potential left. 18 years old, 6’4, over 10 K/9. Not sure why Jesus Sanchez is getting so much support. He would have to have electric stuff to be a 5’11 RH pitcher.

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  3. Success despite inexperience is why I support Sanchez. Rodriguez I can’t get behind as I have no faith in GCL statistics. I need to see more.

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  4. I think Matt Way is the pick here. Plus change-up as #1 pitch helps the Left Handed pitcher more than the Right Handed Sanchez.

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  5. Hewitt again based upon having the most upside of anybody left. Granted, he has a LONG way to go, but I have still have (some) faith…or maybe it’s just hope.

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  6. Going with Dugan here. His ceiling may not be as high as some of the guys, but I’m thinking he may have a better chance of reaching it than Hewitt or Hudson. Plus, the name “Kelly Dugan” is a great baseball name.

    – Jeff

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  7. Alan, agree GCL stats do not always tell the story. It’s like kids playing in a 14-16 yr old rec basketball league. Take the top five scorers and maybe 2 or 3 of them make a good HS team. The rest are gunners who jack up their stats in rec leagues, but they don’t have the defense, speed or other talent to compete. In the GCL, some pitchers can take advantage of undisciplined hitters, but fail miserably in A ball, where you have some experienced college guys who can kill you and some more talented, (weeded out) HS hitters. And some hitters can take advantage of pitcher mistakes they will not see. So GCL performance is not trustworthy.

    However, when you look back, you can see correlation between some guys performing poorly or well in GCL and at the higher levels. So there is some correlation. You just don’t know whose stats to trust. It’s better if you have good scouting reports on guys. For example, we can trust Singleton’s stats more because we know he has had a lot of instruction, is intelligent and hard-working, has good plate discipline. But with little or no scouting to rely on you can’t always trust rookie stats.

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  9. BTW, the same holds true for college guys in short season A ball. You can’t always trust those stats. There are also many other deceiving factors at both levels, such as the wood bat transition (different for different players), mediocre players getting hot in a short season, so the sample is less significant (case in point: D’Arby Myers deceptive hot streak in Williamsport, which excited a lot of people, including me).

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  12. If Jesus Sanchez, the ultimate toss-in, becomes more than organizational filler, it will lead to all kinds of new and verbose revisitations of the Abreu trade. Who wouldn’t want THAT?

    Of course, it didn’t stop me from voting for Way.

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  14. Another reason to like Sanchez is how much his control improved over the year:

    BB/9:
    April 6.6
    May 2.9
    June 1.7
    July 2.2
    August 1.9
    Sept 4.0

    His K/9 tell a different story, but his monthly ERAs got better over the year too. Here’s hoping he took a shine to pitching.

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  15. I was all set to post how crazy people are for voting for Way over Carp, but looking at the numbers I’ve been turned around a little. At age 22 Carp was in A+, but his rate numbers weren’t eye-catching, except HR/9:

    HR/9: 0.9, BB/9: 2.9, K/9: 6.4

    So even though Way put up his eye-popping numbers at age 22 in an easier league, I’ve come down off my high-horse a little bit about Carp. I still think Carp’s value is higher both in terms of expected value and trade value, but Way looks like he has an achieveable future as a LOOGY, if not something better.

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  16. Dugan- not the highest of ceilings, perhaps. An overloaded position in this organization for sure, but I think there’s potential for him to develop into a solid MLB outfielder with some pop.

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  19. Sanchez again. Success despite inexperience is right.

    Next time probably Carpenter or Way. Maybe J-Rod. I can’t put any of those unproven OFs over guys who have shown something on the field, but they would probably show up in my 35-40 range, maybe a little better.

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  20. I really like Sanchez’s potential, but agree totally that it’s waaaaay too early to write off Kelly Dugan. The Phillies scouting department has done a great job in the last 5-10 years. It’s difficult to ignore that success. So, if they liked Dugan enough to make him No. 1, I believe he deserves the benefit of the doubt to be on this list.
    Time will tell, but you’ve gotta have some faith.

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  21. Hewitt should definatelybe #30. While he has yet to produce, he is still young and possess the tools to be a standout MLB player. I am not saying he’s a lock to make the big leagues, but I also don’t think he should be left of the top 30. If he doesn’t produce this year, he may never. But I’m willing to give him one more year…

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  22. I don’t think people should look at this list like “If you don’t make the top 30, you’re not a legit prospect”. 30 is just a pretty random number. If some people are thinking of sticking a player at the back of this list because they see #30 as some sort of cutoff, I think that’s a mistake. It’s an artificial cutoff- it’s not like the last pick in a draft where you might take a flier on a guy with potential.

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  23. Hudson, Carpenter, then Cisco for me at this point. Sanchez is an interesting project, but a little behind the others because of his age/level. Could be a bullpen arm eventually.

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  24. I took Hewitt over Hudson, Dugan, Sanchez, and Way, all guys I have rated higher than a few already on our list. These are all possible good players though so who knows…

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  25. I agree the top 30 is purely for fun, so if hewitt doesn’t make the list it won’t effect my day. However, I know I will be watching Hewitt’s progress way more closely than anyone else left on the draft board.

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  26. I think it is more likely that Carpenter contributes to the Phillies at some point than any one else remaining.
    Sanchez reminds me of that character in the Charlie Sheen send up of “Top Gun.” The guys name was “Dead Meat.” I think Sanchez is one of those arms that end up in a trade for an experienced guy some day… same with Way, by the way.

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  27. Who could the Phillies get more back for in a trade, Sanchez or Carpenter, or somebody else? I think Sanchez, which is why I voted for him now.

    I’ll vote for Zagurski next, over Hewitt. Zagurski does not get much respect on this site, with his nickname of Zagirthski, PhuturePhillies belittling the Phillies for naming him their minor league player of the year in 2007, and PP leaving him out of his list of pitching prospect tiers. Probably it is because he is 27. Of course Hewitt is derided also on this site, as being nothing more than a toolshed and another Jeff Jackson or Reggie Taylor, but I heard the Phillies considered him “untouchable” for a time last season and they have proven to me they know more than a bit about evaluating prospects. According to Zips and CHONE Zagurski has a better projected 2010 MLB ERA (at league average or better) than any other prospect who might pitch for the Phillies this year (including Bastardo), except Schwimer. Since he already proved he can have success at the major league level, Zagurski doesn’t need any projecting, just to stay healthy and to throw strikes.

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  28. Its natural that PP support influences the reader list. It is the nature of group think on these blogs. A respected voice states opinion and everyone follows. PP favorite De Fratus, voted in earlier on this list than any other experts’ list. Former site favorite, Travis Mattair, despite epic failure, still with holdout support. PP touted draft picks, Savery and Collier, voted in despite terrible results. Derided draft picks Hewitt, Dugan and Hudson no support. Not coincidence.

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  29. One thing to notice with this year’s list is once you get past the top 3 guys, you are now dealing with potential rather than success at the minor league level. The past few lists have included a deeper pool of guys who have experienced success on the farm. While that means something short term, it may not mean a thing over time. The club just needs to develop these guys and allow them to succeed over time. I went with Dugan here just based on trust for the scouts. They must have seen something here to convince them to take him so early.

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  30. What would we call a successful year?
    25% making serious to dramatic progress
    30% advancing well
    Anyone care or know enough to quantify a good ’10 on the farm?

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  32. I think you’d get more in trade for Carpenter than Sanchez. They put up fairly equivalent numbers, but Carpenter is ready for the bigs. He would definitely open the season in the rotation for a lot of major league teams. Sanchez has a lot of years in pro ball, despite his age. Phillies had to start his options clock. He wouldn’t really stand out at all in the pitcher’s park that is Lakewood, were it not that he has just converted from catching and that provides the hope of a new beginning. Otherwise, he is a small righty who didn’t blow away low-A competition at a relatively advanced age. Sanchez has some value to other teams, or at least the Phillies think so, or they wouldn’t have added him to the 40-man. Other than the conversion from catcher, Monasterios would appear to be the slightly better prospect and the one with better size.

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  33. At this point, I generally agree with the baseball prospects websites who basically conclude that there are a lot of players here with a lot of upside but where they end up is anybody’s guess. I mean, really, aside from the fact that Hewitt is a great athlete and apparently is a good guy with a strong work ethic, do we have any clue about how his career will likely proceed (aside from knowing that, right now, he’s revving his engine in neutral)? He’s just an example but there are a TON of hitters and pitchers like that in the system at the lower levels. Honestly, I don’t mind it that much because the team is taking a bit of a “high upside lottery” approach. Some of the numbers are likely to hit, but who will it be? For anybody below Lakewood who hasn’t shown anything yet, who the heck knows. I’m sorry if that’s not an answer, but, with our low level/high upside prospects I’m not sure if, in terms of predicting who will and will not be good, we’d do worse guessing with a blind fold and a dart board.

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  34. Sanchez here. As a few people have mentioned the Phillies have drafted well in the past few years and the system has really improved. The Phillies added him to the 40 man roster. Why would they do that if he did not have decent potential. Add in the fact that Sanchez was very good in Lakewood – albeit a little old- and that it was his first year on the mound in a few years. I think he should be alot higher on our list. Those that question his height….How tall is that guy in SF that just signed that 2 year 23 mill contract….and no I am I not comparing the two other then height

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  35. The guy in San Fransico has 2 of the best secondary pitches on the planet. If Sanchez’s change-up is as good as Tiny Tims’ then Sanchez might be something. As is, Sanchez does not have a good breaking ball, which is crucial for a RH pitcher.

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  36. Can’t believe Carpenter’s still on the board. Really. 5th in the IL in ERA, 11-6 record, only 24–what’s he have to do?

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  37. The most likely of the high upside guys to succeed are the ones that have shown a little positive baseball talent above the level of the player who, like the proverbial blind squirrel who finds the occasional nut. Hewitt has mostly been a blind squirrel. Jiwan James has shown some idea at the plate last year, so he may be ahead in the “transforming wide receivers into baseball players” game. Gose also show skills, obviously. The rest are a crapshoot, but I will not give up on them until they prove they are a bust. That’s more than 1 or 2 years.

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  38. I agree with Catch 22 and Diamond Derby. Just high potential does not make a guy a highly rated prospect. The Phillies method appears to be to take a lot of these high risk/high reward guys in the hopes that a small percentage of them will make it big, with the realization that most will crash and burn. You can take 5 of these toolsy OF and assume that just one makes it. That’s a good deal for the team. So, Hewitt, Myers, Dugan, James, Hudson, Altherr, Collier may not have shown enough individually to be highly rated prospects, but if one emerges from the pack and comes close to realizing his potential, then the Phillies will have done well. If two emerge, we’ve done great. So, I view it that in that group of 7 risky, toolsy OF lurks a future starter. If I had seen enough to know which one it was, he’d be high on my list. Since none has shown much of anything, I’m not going to rank 7 guys highly on the presumption that a star lurks within the pack of guys who will flame out before they reach AAA.

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  41. “You can take 5 of these toolsy OF and assume that just one makes it. That’s a good deal for the team. So, Hewitt, Myers, Dugan, James, Hudson, Altherr, Collier may not have shown enough individually to be highly rated prospects, but if one emerges from the pack and comes close to realizing his potential, then the Phillies will have done well. If two emerge, we’ve done great.”

    That’s exactly right and I agree, particularly with our outfielders. Personally, the way I am looking at it is that Brown is likely to be a major leaguer, I think we’ve really got something in Domingo Santana as a corner outfielder, I think one or both of Gillies and/or Gose is going to be fine in centerfield (good enough to replace Victorino) and, hopefully, one of the other guys does well. With that, in the medium to long run, I think we’re in good shape in the outfield and, frankly, pitching stacks up much the same way – I think we’ll be fine there as well. What I’m not so sure of is middle infielders, third base and behind the plate (not so long ago, an enormous strength of the organization).

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  42. I agree Catch….we have depth at the outfield positions and pitcher. I would like to see the Phils go for a third baseman and a catcher for their first two picks this year. I have a feeling that Utley and Rollins will be here for the long term

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  43. Seems that there is a lot of disdain on this blog for “toolsy” outfielders. Would most readers prefer guys with few tools? “Toolsy” has somehow taken on the meaning of a negative. Jason Werth is the most “toolsy” player the big team has, but I never hear him refered to in the negative sense.

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  44. I’m not worried about positional depth. Look at how Tampa Bay built their pennant winner. They didn’t worry about filling out their lineup. They just stockpiled talent. And when the right time came, they made some moves and turned that talent into usable players. You can always acquire talent through other avenues, and if you are smart you should at least have a league average player. Reaching for a player in a draft because of positional need is usually a mistake.

    Dave, all things being the same you want toolsy players. The problem is when teams acquire toolsy players who are simply not good at baseball. There’s a difference between the two. I think Jayson Werth was always long appreciated by the sabermetric crowd even in the Toronto organization. Fall in love with the latter type of player though and you find yourself wasting 650 plate appearances a year on Jeff Francoeur.

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  45. All I know is that the Phillies #1 prospect is a “toolsy Outfielder (Domonic Brown). The prospect the Phillies used to get Roy Halladay was a “Toolsy” outfielder (Michael Taylor). The prospect the Blue Jays reportedly may have wanted in place of Michael Taylor was a “toolsy” outfielder (Anthony Gose). Seems that other teams value the Phillies “toolsy” players.

    I have not seen any rumored deals built around these highly regarded Middle relievers. The players that have been rated so highly by the readers. Have not heard of any interest in De Fratus, Rosenberg, Schwimer or Hyatt. Middle relievers are not hard to get. Not one bit of the Phillies future depends on the developement of any one of these players. However, the developement of players like James, Castro and Villar would boost the system rating back to where it was last year.

    The system has “toolsy” players that have shown something. The term “toolsy” should not be synonymous with un-skilled. How about valuing “high ceiling” players with “tools”.

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  47. “we have depth at the outfield positions and pitcher. I would like to see the Phils go for a third baseman and a catcher for their first two picks”

    I do not agree with this at all. The Phillies have a lot of potential depth at the Outfield positions. I do not see that much depth at pitcher. May, Aumont, Ramirez, Cosart and Colvin. All of those guys has major questions marks.

    May: Low A ball pitcher with suspect control.
    Aumont: health and suspect control
    Ramirez: Bad year at A ball
    Cosart: 26 innings at Short season
    Colvin: 2 innings at Rookie ball
    Pettibone: Suspect control and 1 plus pitch.

    What pitching depth?

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  48. Dave —
    ‘Toolsy’ in this sense is used to describe guys that have nothing but unrefined tools. Great tools, but close to zero performance. Brown has tools, but also has performance. He does not have to be evaluated by saying ‘gee he has a huge ceiling’, he has actually accomplished things. By contrast, Hewitt has a basketful of tools and has yet to accomplish anything. He has become something of a negative. Altherr is also all tools, but doesn’t have enough a record for his record to be a negative. Yes, we want tools, but you can’t rate too highly on tools alone, absent any performance. A guy high in the minors, with solid age appropriate results, but less impressive tools than the guy in rookie or low-A ball who has yet to put up decent numbers, is to me the better prospect. His ceiling may not be quite as high, but his probability of reaching it is multiple times larger. The majority of very raw toolboxes like Hewitt and Golson, end up like Jeff Jackson — washouts without a major league career. They are a big enough success that it is worth taking a shot on a lot of them, but I think it a mistake to rate any one of them to highly. You may be looking at 15% chance of good, 10% chance of very good, 70% chance of complete washout.

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  49. When I say depth I don’t mean they are ready to be fighting for a job in spring training. I see guys who can help us in two years. Some maybe less. You have to look at both starters and relievers. We have named 15 out of the first 27 are pitchers some still should be up there. I think you have to look at the Mathieson, Escalona, Carpenter, Kendrick (still25), Flande, Cisco (pitched well last yr),Cloyd, Schwimmer, Rosenberg, Defratus, Way, Sanchez, and Hyatt who will be at Clearwater or above. I forgot Stutes and Worley to also go with your list. There are even guys ar Williamsport and GCL that I think will help the system in the next few yrs. Are they a Drabek, a Carrasco, a Gio Gonzalez, and Outman? No but I see potential. What I don’t see is any potential at catcher or third base.

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  51. That is not depth. That is bodies. Every organization has guys the caliber of those guys. Outside of Mathieson and Worely(being generous), there are not any names on that list who project as anything special.

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  52. This is all opinion. I have more faith then you do at the time. But do you agree that 3b and catcher should be a higher priority in the draft?

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  53. No, I do not. The Phillies should draft the best player available at whatever position. The only type of player I might pass on, all things being equal, would be college outfielder in the early rounds.
    Pitching should always be a priority though. If the Phillies took pitching with their 1st 5 picks, it would be fine with me.

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