Reader Top 30; #29

Catcher turned pitcher Jesus Sanchez takes the #28 spot, leaving just two spots left to go in this year’s Reader Top 30. My current aim is to have my own Top 30 ready by Friday, but that is, as always, subject to change. No one received write-in support in the last round, which is probably just as well, since there are only 2 spots left. Kevin Goldstein’s Top 15 for the Phillies should be up either today (Monday) or Tuesday, and I’m going to see if he can squeeze in a brief Q/A for the site once his list is posted. Check below for more.

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21. Jon Pettibone, RHP
22. Yohan Flande, LHP
23. Leandro Castro, OF
24. Colby Shreve, RHP
25. Zach Collier, OF
26. Michael Schwimer, RHP
27. Jonathon Villar, SS
28. Jesus Sanchez, RHP
29.

41 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #29

  1. I had Carpenter above Way on my own list, but the consensus had Way so I gave him this vote. I’ll vote Carpenter for #30.

  2. Carpenter on performance and proximity to the big leagues.

    Los of guys with potential still here. Some who would have been on this list much higher in other years (mid-90s?) won’t even get mentioned.

  3. I went with Dugan b/c I thought Mayberry wouldn’t get any votes. If I had known he was getting support, I would have voted for him. PP – if it comes down to a close vote, you can subtract one from Dugan and add one for Mayberry. As for Way and Austin – I liked their debuts, but they’ll have to continue to impress as they climb the ladder to get on my radar screen – the lower minors just were not a fair test of their abilities (See Vance Worley).

  4. Hyatt. Yes, old for league. But the level of domination was pretty intense. So I think he has a decent chance of being a middle reliever. The other guys I know too little of to project anything, so I go with the guy who has made an impression.

  5. Dugan. He may not have the highest ceiling of the OF prospects already on the list, but I think he also has a much better floor than some of them. I didn’t see anything in his short season results to make me think he’s a bust yet, so I feel Top 30 is definitely fair for him.

  6. “Avoid the Clap” Kelly Dugan…its pity thing though. Its amazing our system has been solid with no top picks to write home about for years

  7. I don’t know what it is about Dugan for me. Obviously never saw the kid play but reading the scouting reports and seeing (very) early results just screams “average” to me. I went Way – he gets the “but he’s left handed” bump for me…

  8. Baseball Prospectus had a report on Carpenter last season putting his fastball at 84-86 MPH. Even if that was a bad day, living with a fastball in that general vicinity just won’t ever lead to success in the big leagues in any role and makes him a non-prospect to me. He may get a few more cups of coffee, but he will never contribute.

    so I’m sticking with a “potential” pick and going with Dugan. At this point, it’s the guys who haven’t had a chance to prove they are not a prospect who are still prospects in my eyes.

    And though Mayberry is almost certainly the guy on this list with the best chance to make a meaningful big-league contribution, he’s a finished product, so I for one don’t count him towards this list.

  9. Will: completely, 100% agreed. I said the following about Carpenter when explaining why I left him off my Top 30.

    Carpenter had a nice bounceback year in 2009, posting a 4.08 FIP in 24 starts for Lehigh Valley. But his stuff is really fringy, and throwing 89 mph fastballs over the heart of the plate in the majors is just another way of asking for a one-way ticket back to Triple-A. Carpenter looks like a Quad-A guy to me, and while I’d be happy to be proven wrong, his best case scenario looks like “long reliever,” which simply isn’t enough to get him into the Top 30.

    So with the Mayberry bandwagon essentially empty, I’ll stick with Dugan, who will hopefully get on at #30. If Way ends up winning here and Dugan next round, this Top 30 will actually feature the exact same guys as mine (though obviously not in the same order).

  10. I’m not a Mayberry fan but I went with him here, the guy has at least made borderline contributions at the big league level, has a good tool in his power so at some point he will stick somewhere as a 5th OF, not super valuable but better than guys who are much further away.

  11. Sir Alden,
    Say what? Performance? Hudson batten .162 in GCL with an OPS of .441. How can you possibly look at those numbers and see solid performance?

  12. “He may not have the highest ceiling, as some of the other OF prospects… but I think he has the much better floor.”

    What about Dugan makes you think he has the better floor of the young OF prospects? What about him makes you think he does not have the highest ceiling?

  13. Voted Julio Rodriguez due to my opinion that he has the best combination of age and performance of the remaining guys.
    I think that Carpenter’s upside is below average starter or hanging-on long reliever. I think he a very valuable piece to have in the minors as a controllable asset that could get a couple emergency starts.
    Mayberry should be a bench player but given 500 PA could hit 20HR with 125K. He’s a fringe starter on a bad team and maybe could platoon against lefties.

    I would probably pick Mayberry over Carpenter since he has one niche tool (power) and could play against lefties, whereas Carpenter is really going to need perfect control to last for any extended period.

  14. No love at all for first round pick Hewitt??? Ouch…..
    Just curious but one name never mentioned by anyone is Tyler Cloud. Why not? Based on his half season at Lakewood, many of us were very high on him. I assume he’ll start in Clearwater with a shot to be in the rotation but competition for the starting jobs will be fierce in Reading, Clearwater, and Lakewood. A good first half and he’s right back in the prospect picture with many names on the list already.

  15. Whats with people voting for some prospects just because they think they’re getting more support than others? If you think Carpenter is the next best, vote him, if you think its Mayberry, vote for him. It kind of cheapens the voting, imo, to be doing that.

    I said Carpenter for this round. Matt Way probably has a slightly higher ceiling because he’s a lefty, but if in two years Way is where Carpenter is now, I think we’d be happy with that. Carpenter is a little less than two years older than Way, and Way pitched last year a full 3 levels below him. Plus he still has to make the biggest jump (from A to AA). I expect that the Phils will start Way in Reading so he can prove himself, but he still has to show it while Carp has already done it.

  16. ****Baseball Prospectus had a report on Carpenter last season putting his fastball at 84-86 MPH. Even if that was a bad day, living with a fastball in that general vicinity just won’t ever lead to success in the big leagues in any role and makes him a non-prospect to me. ****

    Carpenter averaged 89.3 mph on his fastball last year…in his 3 MLB starts.

    So yeah, he basically throws 86-91mph. That’s why he’s a fringe guy.

    However, to put it in perspective, Blanton averaged all of 89.7 mph (with a in-game range of 86-93 mph).

    Of course, Carpenter doesn’t have the secondary pitches that Blanton has nor does he have the same location.

  17. Blanton’s fastball drops down most of the time while Carpenter’s unfortunately semed pretty straight to me and it sat up in the zone. That’s going to get hit in the big leagues. Location, movement and pitch selection are much more important than a slight speed difference. As for Way, while I like him, there is no room for him at Reading. They already have 7 starters to choose from. Way will start with May at Clearwater with three others from Sanchez, Garcia, Cloyd, DeFratus, Velasquez, Hyatt (maybe stays at Lakewood but I don’t thnk so) and Correa (also could stay at Lakewood). Good problems to have if they’re all healthy.

  18. Looking at a snow night in here in the Poconos so I’ll share my thoughts on the whole list.

    Matthew Way: The stuff wasn’t impressive at draft time, but the results were hugely impressive. He was old for his levels and more experienced than the competition, so some caution is due.

    Andrew Carpenter: Finishing fifth in the IL in ERA really isn’t that impressive IMO. Pitchers who perform at a high level are often called up before they can reach the ERA threshold. Accept pitchers who threw 100 innings, and Carpenter drops to 15th. Being close to the majors gets Carpenter on the list, but he is by no means a sure thing.

    Michael Cisco: Kind of forgotten. I think he has potential in the bullpen. Certainly has excellent command.

    Travis Mattair: Low batting average, no power, high strikeout rate. There’s just nothing to get excited about.

    Julio Rodriguez: Even recognizing his winter league stats, just hasn’t pitched at a high enough level for long enough for me to rate him.

    Kelly Dugan: He probably should have rated in the top 30, but it is extremely difficult (perhaps impossible) to judge a sub-1st round pick with little pro experience.

    Kyrell Hudson: See above. Dugan at least promises an advanced bat. Hudson is all tools. I need to see Hudson hit before I take him seriously as a prospect though.

    John Mayberry: Already 26 and completely over-matched in the majors. I doubt he’ll be more than a reserve, if that.

  19. Kyrell Hudson. Don’t read too much into his brief performance. He is probably the second-best prospect we drafted last year (behind Colvin).

  20. Other: Mike Zagurski.

    I’d rather have Zagurski than anybody else on the ballot. I probably would have voted for Hewitt, had he been on the ballot as he was last round, rather than waste my vote on a write-in, but since I have to write somebody in, I’ll write in the 2007 Paul Owens Award winner, who I expect will be fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery and establishing himself as a good major league reliever before this season is over.

  21. Does anyone know where I can find the pre-draft rankings of High Schoolers, Colvin, Hudson, Dugan, Altherr, Singleton and Marlon Mitchell?
    I seem to remember reading Colvin was 40th and Hudson was around 100, but i’m not sure.

  22. From last year’s BA handbook, they have their High School Top 100. This would’ve been written around Dec. ’08.

    33. Brody Colvin
    59. Kyrell Hudson
    78. Jonathan Singleton

  23. BA’s website oddly flips Hudson and Singleton in the overall rankings – 200 and 196. Colvin is 43rd.

    Dugan is 76th in CA.
    Altherr is 19th in AZ.
    Mitchell is unranked in FL (>80)

  24. i just think too many ppl here vote based on ceiling and not based on what we know. for example, kyrell hudson/hewitt/james…all toolsy guys. but until one puts up decent numbers at AA or better, guys like zagurski and schwimmer are better to me because at least we know they can contribute in the majors

  25. Schwimer pitched less than five innings in Reading, so that’s virtually meaningless. (Of course Schwimer does hold the Reading record for wins in a doubleheader.)

    Dantheman, we don’t know that Schwimer and Zagurski can contribute in the majors. I’ve seen relievers dominate AAA and flop in the majors.

  26. Thanks for the information Alan!
    Really can not get the baseball draft. Colvin, Singleton, Dugan and Hudson all had scholarship commitments. It seems the team could have taken Colvin or Singleton (higher rated guys) in the 2nd round, they would have received a comp pick if they did not sign.

  27. Right Schwimer hasn’t pitched much in AA, but the guys statement was that we know that he can contribute in the majors. That is factually incorrect

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