Reader Top 30; #27

Before we get to the Reader Top 30, I just wanted to link two different articles. The first comes from notable prospect evaluator Alex Eisenberg at Baseball Intellect, where he’s posted his Top 15 Phillies prospects. Some of the content is premium and available only for subscribers. The second link is to a site called Diamond Futures, which covers prospects. You can read the author’s take on 19 of our prospects here. I always try and link stuff from people who get in touch with me, so I’m doing my good deed for the day there. Onto the Reader Top 30. We’re almost done, and blogger extraordinaire Michael Schwimer takes home the #26 spot in comfortable fashion. Travis Mattair and Mike Cisco both got a write in vote, so I’ll try and add them both. Check below for more..

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21. Jon Pettibone, RHP
22. Yohan Flande, LHP
23. Leandro Castro, OF
24. Colby Shreve, RHP
25. Zach Collier, OF
26. Michael Schwimer, RHP

59 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #27

  1. Alex’s top 15 is very good. I like his a little better than the reader’s top 15. He has Gillies lower than I would. Actually, if he flipped JC Ramirez and Tyson Gillies, my list would be very similar.

  2. Great articles James. It’s Interesting that DF has Cespedes in the mix. I like him a lot but the DSL doesn’t give me a warm, fuzzy feeling. I assumed we’ll see him State-side this year and then I can start a write-in campaign as a top 20 player.

    Villar is my choice here.

  3. Went with Dugan; I like him better than Hudson because I have more faith in his hit tool. Couldn’t argue with Sanchez, Villar, or Way here either (or Mayberry, but clearly that’s not happening).

  4. I went with Sanchez here. Nice links on the Phillies minor leagues. I’m not too concerned where the system is ranked but how they grow. The Phillies core is in their late 20’s and 30’s. Our top minor leaguers (Brown, May, Aumont, Gilles, and Gose) are a couple years away. Teams like Clearwater on down should be interesting to watch.

  5. I really am excited for this year. In september we could be a real good system or bad in my opinion. We have a lot of kids in lower levels that could blossom or bust, santana collier, hewitt, may, singleton, hudson, and more, it will be real interesting to see the development this year.

  6. Went with Dugan as well. He isn’t a player who blows you away, but he had a pretty solid short season for his age.

  7. Alan ..since 5 of the 6 players you mentioned have already been selected over Hyatt , then your # 34 for him on your list is not far off from my pick for him @ # 27

    I think the organization should have started him @ Lakewood or moved him up during the season to challenge him

    Time will tell

  8. NEPP : Is this exercise all about potential ? Does performance count at all ?

    Hudson ? What where his numbers last year ? Jeff Jackson former # 1 pick had great potential but did not perform . I guess on this list he would have been in the top 5 .

  9. After reading the links, I’m excited to see what the Phillies do with Felix Cespedes. Talk about ‘performance’. Check those K/9 and K/BB ratios!

  10. Carpenter has the makings of a late bloomer. It will come down to confidence, savvy and a change-up. His fastball sits in the high 80s – low 90s range, but it will be his slider, splitter and still evolving change-up that make or break him. If his change-up improves dramatically it will help his other secondary pitches and add a little sneakiness to his fastball. Also, a little more control would go a long way.

    A lot depends on the mental side of the game for Drew. His work habits must be second to none if he’s going to break through. Preparation and keeping a book on hitters should help him more effectively mix up his repertoire and keep hitters guessing.

    Best case, he’ll become a solid 4th or 5th starter in a few years. Definitely worth a vote here.

  11. In a truly shocking moment for me, I was reading the USA Today fantasy baseball magazine and the had Juan Ramirez of Seattle (aka JC Ramirez of the Phillies) as their second -SECOND- ranked prospect in all of baseball. That is insane and i wonder how they arrived , the write up basically said he has amazing stuff and high dessert held him down. He was ranked above EVERYONE except Neftali Feliz, I don’t think it means anything just thought i would share.

  12. “Hudson ? What where his numbers last year ? Jeff Jackson former # 1 pick had great potential but did not perform . I guess on this list he would have been in the top 5 .”

    No one is saying that performance doesn’t matter. It’s a combination of performance and potential. The point of a prospect list isn’t to reward a guy who helped a NY-Penn League club to a second place finish. It’s to identify players who may contribute down the road.

    Now Jeff Jackson, yes, he may have been top 5 after 1989. Certainly the Phillies themselves picked him fourth overall, so somebody thought he was worth it. But I doubt we’d be too enthralled with him after his first full season.

  13. Todd, if that USA Today thing is accurate it would really surprise me that they rated Strasburg below those two. And Jason Heyward as well, unless it counts only right handed pitchers on that list.

  14. As I see it, Drew Carpenter’s upside is for him to become another Joe Blanton, but about $8 million per year cheaper – and it’s not a pipe dream, that really could happen. As such, he will end up somewhere on my top 30 list.

  15. And I’m not a particularly big Drew Carpenter fan, but he does have a legitmate innings-eating, middle-of-the-road ERA, starter upside.

  16. Alan- No it ranked everyone. It’s a very wierd list, Heyward was like number seven. Strasburg i don’t remember. I think it was hooey but thought i should let everyone know.

  17. Drew Carpenter another Joe Blanton?
    Disrespectful to Joe Blanton.
    Joe Blanton was a 1st round draft choice picked before Cole Hamels. He is a high pedigree player.
    Joe Blanton was in the majors and had pitched a 200 inning season by the time he was Carpenter’s age. Blanton pitched in a hitters league, but had a better K/9, K/BB, and WHIP than Carpenter at a younger age.
    We will be lucky if May, Aumont or JC Ramirez approach Joe Blanton’s career.

  18. Is that USA Today article online anywhere? I’ve looked, but can’t find it. Not that I disbelieve what Todd says, but it does sound pretty off the wall.

  19. I am not making it up, actually i think its ridiculous, but if you are braving the roads and going out its in the top prospects part of that magazine

  20. How the story has changed at the time of the Lee trade several were saying that the Phils couldn’t get even one prospect for Blanton and now he has a “high pedigree”.
    Having a view is good just be consistent. Carpenter won’t get a chance anyway . What rookies has. Happ had to jump hoops
    Happ-Hoops I like it.

  21. “Drew Carpenter another Joe Blanton?
    Disrespectful to Joe Blanton.”

    Hey, read my e-mail carefully – I said this was his upside, not his likely destination.

    The fact that someone was/is a first round pick and has pedigree is irrelevant to me. We know what Joe Blanton is/has become. He is a solid, #3-4 starter who eats innings and who keeps his team in games. He’s a good and useful player with above-average (but not great) stuff and I like him. But he’s not a star. He’s not even a great number 3 starter – he’s good.

    Putting aside silly stuff like prior draft position and perceived pedigree, what Joe Blanton has becomes is PRECISELY Drew Carpenter’s upside. Again, not what I expected him to become (I don’t even like him that much as a prospect), but what he could become if everything goes right – a 10% chance at best.

  22. Other – Anthony Hewitt

    In a pure throw-away vote, I’m going on potential here. I know he has a love/hate relationship with folks on this board, mostly hate, but IF (I mean big IF) he can get his talent to click, he will be special. The back-end of the top-30 seems about right to me.

    Also, somewhat surprised that there has been absolutely zero mention of Quintin Berry at this point. He’s another that is likely to be in Philadelphia at some point this year.

  23. Nowheels – Do you even research what you are talking about? Not many teams that are consistently in a pennant race make a habit of handing jobs to rookies. It just doesn’t happen. But since you asked, since the Phillies became regular contenders, here is a list for you:

    2005: Gavin Floyd, Ryan Howard, Rob Tejada
    2006: Clay Condrey, Chris Coste, Cole Hamels, Scott Mathieson, Shane Victorino
    2007: Michael Bourn, Kyle Kendrick, Francisco Rosario, Mike Zagurski
    2008: J. A. Happ is the only one of “significance”, but hey, the were WFChamps
    2009: Bastardo (before he got hurt), Escalona, Could throw Happ in here again, and Marson got a long look as the back-up catcher.

    So, there you go. 3-4 rooks a year get significant PT. Any other questions?

  24. “Carpenter won’t get a chance anyway . What rookies has. Happ had to jump hoops”

    Gavin Floyd- Promoted to MLB after five AAA starts.
    Cole Hamels- Six starts above A ball before reaching the majors.
    Kyle Kendrick- Jumped to the majors straight from AA.

    So Happ spent a month in long relief. Boo Hoo. Teams used to frequently put pitchers in long relief as a trial in MLB. It was generally a successful practice.

    In any case, we’re not talking about a pitcher who dominated AAA. Carpenter was moderately successful, but it is not certain that he can succeed at the MLB level. CHONE pegs Carpenter for a 5.48 ERA. When you’ve got an organization that is built to win now, you can not afford to take that kind of risk. If Carpenter succeeds, he will get his shot. Pitchers who get buried are few and far between. The course of the baseball season creates its own opportunities.

  25. Well catch22,
    You and I have a difference of opinion on both Blanton and Capenter.
    You believe Carpenter’s ceiling is a #3 starter on a good team, if everything goes right. I believe Carpenter’s ceiling is as a #5 starter. His floor is mop-up man. His most likely destination is middle reliever.
    Blanton has had seasons that were starter #2 level. As is he is a #3 starter. Carpenter does not have the talent to approach the level of Blanton.

  26. I wonder how much thought goes into these rankings when considering where the team has been drafting over the last 4-5 yrs. By picking at the bottom of the order every year we are not going to end up with the weiters, strasburg’s. I know its easy to go and say hey how come we drafted _____ when _____ was still on the board. Frankly I don’t mind going for the home run with the hewitt’s and collier’s but I do think they could bust slot a little more with the hard to sign guys taken in the later rounds even though the team has done a decent job with those players in the last few yrs. Villar, dugan, hudson, carpenter.

  27. Carpenter may not have dominated AAA, but he had a very nice season at age 24. A record of 11 – 6 for a poor team, an ERA of 3.35, just a hair under 7K/9 IP with less than 3 BB/9. That was the 5th best ERA in the International League.

  28. Anonymous : Your comment about marrying Hyatt has no place on this site.
    If you want to express your opinions about certain players that’s fine . We all have opinions about the prospects and not all of us will agree with the list of 30 . That’s the fun of it .
    I have been a baseball fan for 50 years and coached High School baseball so I ‘am not a novice at evaluating talent.

  29. Looks like Sanchez and Way are splitting votes, letting Villar jump in front for this round. I went with Sanchez again, seems to me that his upside is pretty good considering it was his first time pitching and he performed as well as he did. To me, he’s the only guy left on this list who still has both a good upside and has shown something of significance on the field. Everybody else is pretty much one or the other.

  30. I’m surprised there isn’t more interest in Heitor Correa. The guy was at least age-appropriate in Lakewood and more than held his own. I think he’ll definitely be a name to watch in 2010.

  31. I’m going to vote Jesus Sanchez as #30 because every list if future hopes should end with Jesus.

  32. Correa has some good games at Lakewood last year but can get real wild. I don’t have the exact breakdown but I recall a lot walks, hit batters, and wild pitches. With that he said he could still get a chance to start in Clearwater this year.

  33. I voted Hudson… I guess on upside.

    Honestly, this list looks so silly at this point we might as well pull the rest of the names out of a hat. The coalescence of everyone’s varied opinions combined with the bizarre vote-splitting between similar players has created a really, really worthless list. I just can’t wait until we’re finished so I can see James’ and many of the more knowledgeable contributors’ top 30 lists.

  34. Grega

    So, there you go. 3-4 rooks a year get significant PT. Any other questions?
    Nice list. You are kidding right. A second cup of coffee should be a qualification. Even Howard was promoted because of
    Thome problems. Thanks anyway now i can go to sleep with a smile on my face.

  35. How about a list of useless FAs that have blocked prospects.
    You can post that in a couple blocks if you need to GREG A

  36. Happ for one by OMG Garcia and Eaton. If that doesn’t upset your stomach you have had too many ballpark franks. Brb nap time for this old f…

  37. ****The coalescence of everyone’s varied opinions combined with the bizarre vote-splitting between similar players has created a really, really worthless list.****


  38. Really, that’s what you got for all of the complaining? Happ for part of 2008 and an 1 1/2 months in the pen in 09?

    Garcia was with the Phillies on 2007 while Happ was coming off of injuries and putting up a 5.02 ERA in AAA ball so I doubt he was being blocked by garcia (who only made 11 starts in 07 due to injury anyway). And after posting that 5.02 ERA in 07, you really expected him to start the season with the big club in 08?

    Maybe its too many of those ballpark beverages that are making things cloudy!!!

  39. Happ was not injured at the start of the year. It wasn’t until he was subjected to the tender mercies of John Russel that he was hurt. TWICE. AND Dubee once.

    Terms like “complaining” are empty attacks with no basis.

  40. Still, it’s ridiculous to say an MLB team shouldn’t have bolstered its starting staff because they had a prospect who had a nice 1/2 season in AA (which is where Happ stood after 2006). At that stage, it was entirely reasonable to send him to AAA. And when he struggled, it was entirely reasonable for him to repeat the level. And then he got promoted. Sounds pretty straightforward.

    Could he have succeeded in MLB in 2007? I have my doubts. But what the hell is wrong with making your prospects prove themselves?

    As for the injuries, Happ was also hurt in 2005. I watched the Red Barons under Russell in 2006 a great deal, and I saw not one iota of evidence that he was a detriment to the health of the pitching staff.

  41. Please don’t tell me the same people who were so wrong on
    Eaton and Garcia are your yardstick.

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