We know Pat Gillick loves the Rule 5 draft, and he’s likely got his eye on someone. Baseball America gave a brief list of potential selections here. Baseball Prospectus also gave some interesting names here. Just going off of the names given in these lists, as I haven’t had time to dig yet and maybe uncover other targets, here are my favorite guys I’d like to see the Phillies grab
Monthly Archives: November 2007
Projected Williamsport rotation
Getting even tougher now…
Correa
Matos
Sampson
De Fratus
(2008 draftee?)
I suppose Diekman could end up here, but since he was a JuCo guy, they should give him a shot at Lakewood. Jiwan James was pretty awful in his debut, I imagine he’ll remain in extended and then go back to the GCL. Matos could start at Lakewood in the bullpen, I suppose they could even get real aggressive with Sampson and skip him to Lakewood too. I think a few guys from the June draft will end up in the rotation. Correa should be close to a lock here, I don’t see them skipping him straight to A ball.
Projected Lakewood rotation
This one will be tougher, as it isn’t quite clear who will jump from rookie ball to Lakewood.
Darren Byrd
Jarrod Freeman
Kyle Drabek
Drew Naylor
Jacob Diekman
Of course we know Savery could start here, based on what the folks at BA think, and Drabek probably won’t be ready to pitch until May or June, and I assume he’s going to start back here. I think Byrd will repeat Lakewood, and Freeman given another shot to start here. Others to consider to fill Drabek’s spot for a while; Miguel Matos, Tyson Brummett (if he doesn’t start at Clearwater), Scott Mitchinson (Clearwater seems more likely. Did I miss anyone obvious?
Phillies claim Shane Youman off waivers
Let me see if I can contain my excitement. Youman isn’t really a prospect anymore, he’ll be 28 this year, and he’s not particularly good, but I’m assuming they’ll try and pass him through waivers in the spring and try to sneak him onto the Allentown roster. His numbers are not very promising, though he was a decent prospect until he hit 3A in 2006.
Projected Clearwater rotation
This one could be a bit tricky…
Edgar Garcia
Joe Savery*
Antonio Bastardo
Carlos Monasterios
Chance Chapman
* I hope he starts here, but I have a feeling it will be Lakewood. If that’s the case, I suppose Dan Brauer is a candidate to start back here, if he’s healthy. I’m assuming Chapman will be a candidate, seeing as he’s already 23 and will be old for his level wherever he starts out. Tyson Brummett is also a possibility I’d think. Garcia seems like a logical choice, having spent 2007 in Low A, same with Bastardo and Monasterios.
Projected Reading rotation
Let’s give Reading a go
Carlos Carrasco
Josh Outman
Drew Carpenter
Alex Concepcion
(?)
The first three are pretty much locks, I think Concepcion has a decent shot to start there, but he could be back at Clearwater, which would leave two open spots. Fabio Castro, if he remains a starter, he could be an option here I think.
Projected Allentown rotation
It’s always fun to kind of speculate on potential lineups and rotations, so I figured we’d start in Allentown. Things could change of course, whether it be because of a trade or an injury, but this is my guess;
Kyle Kendrick
JA Happ
Scott Mathieson
(filler)
(filler)
I don’t think the Phillies are 100% sold on Kyle Kendrick, and probably feel that he could use another half year or year in the minors to refine his stuff. I say this because they are aggressively pursuring (or apparently pursueing) a number of free agents, and they already have 4 starters on the roster in Hamels, Myers, Moyer and Eaton. Kendrick is likely to be the first callup when the need arises, and it will most certainly arise. Happ seems like the easy choice in the 2 slot, and my guess is that Mathieson will start, if anything just to get innings before competing for a bullpen slot. The last two spots will probably be minor league vets. There is really NO reason to rush Carrasco or Outman to 3A, as both struggled at Reading.
Thoughts? Did I miss someone obvious?
Congrats to J-Roll
Don’t have time for an entry today, but Ed Wade must be smiling today, as another fruit of his labor claimed some heavy duty hardware, winning the NL MVP yesterday. Wade, for as much as we panned him as a GM, never traded away Ryan Howard, Chase Utley or Rollins, the three guys who are now the core of the team. Utley would have to be the odds on favorite to win the 2008 MVP, if you can even project things like that, as he’d have probably won in 2007 if not for the injury. Even if Wade did try and trade Howard for Ted Lilly or Zack Duke, at the end of the day he didn’t, and because of it, the Phillies are much better off. Lots of people really despise Eddie, but I find myself disliking him less and less, and at the end of the day, he does deserve a lot of credit for the current core of this team.
After the holiday here, we’ll start looking at projected rotations and lineups for the minor league affiliates, starting with Allentown.
My Top 30 Prospects
You’ve had your say, both individually and as a collective group, now I’ll toss you my list. Before I get into it, I want to make a few general comments. The minors are generally like kindergarten; you’re there to learn to interact with others, to learn how to listen to a teacher, and to pick up basic skills which you’ll use as you progress. Similarly, the main job of a minor leaguer is to learn how to improve different aspects of his game, whether it be hitting for contact, base running, refining a changeup, or hitting the ball to the opposite field. If you look at a generic stat line, with no context, it tells you absolutely nothing. The work that I have been doing is aimed at trying to look at a player’s statistics, consider the league he was in, his age relative to the prospects in the league, and then figure out just what his numbers mean. Generally speaking, I’m not that concerned with the traditional statistics, because they mean very little. Instead, I targeted things like walk rate and strike out rate, as I think those metrics lead to some idea in terms of prediction. After compiling the numbers, I considered everything I know about the prospect in terms of scouting reports. This point here is really important. While I tend to bristle when people only consider a player’s raw tools, it’s equally foolish to just assume a guy with good numbers in Low A will be good just because he has a good K rate. The truth is, if he has an 85 mph fastball and a good curveball, he’s likely to get clobbered as he moves up the ladder. I place more emphasis on performance to date over projection, but it’s a close split. So let’s get on with it..
Thinking about the Rule 5 Draft
Yours truly got his question on the Rule 5 Draft answered by Jim Callis at BA, and hopefully it clears up some questions we had here on who is eligible and who isn’t. I haven’t even looked who the Phillies will have to make decisions on yet, let alone looking for possible targets. But, here is what Jim said on the issue.
Under the new collective bargaining agreement, college players have four years and high school players have five years before they have to be protected on a 40-man roster, correct? Is this from when they sign, or from when they first play? For example, Brad Harman of the Phillies signed out of Australia in 2003, when he was 17, but he didn't make his debut until 2004. So he wouldn't have to be protected until after 2008, right? Jason Jaramillo, who was drafted out of Oklahoma State in 2004 and then played that summer, he has to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, correct?
James Moyer
Washington D.C.James is correct on the status or Harman and Jaramillo, but the recent change to rule is a little more involved. First, it’s based purely on the player’s age at the time of his signing, with those 18 or younger in one group and those 19 or older in another. Under the previous CBA, a player’s 40-man clock started ticking when he began playing, so a club could postdate his contract to the following year and buy an extra season before it had to protect him. Teams had to place a 19-and-older signee on the 40-man roster after three years, and an 18-and-younger signee after four years, or risk losing him in the major league Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings.
Now the rule gives clubs an additional year before they have protected players, though it no longer allows teams to postdate the contracts to buy extra time. Teams get the best of both worlds for players signed before the new CBA went into effect after the 2006 offseason, as they can take advantage of not only the added year, but also a postdated contract if one applies.
Phuture Phillies 