Going into 2016 offseason, the Phillies will have a lot of roster decisions. More than just who to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. They will also have to balance who they protect while building a roster to compete at the major league level. Continue reading 2016 Roster and Rule 5 Decisions
No event in baseball attracts more attention for little flash than the Rule 5 draft. Fans are constantly looking for the next Shane Victorino, when in reality you should be looking for the next David Herndon. The draft represents a unique opportunity to add talent for “free” in a market where a middle reliever can get $1+ million in free agency. I could list a ton of names here that the Phillies could pick but I give it a 5% chance that the Phillies actually pick any of them. The Phillies do have two high picks in the draft they could use for upside flyers, or they could trade them for other minor leaguers who don’t need protection.
Names Available: Junior Arias, Zach Thornton, Carlos Perez, Brian Moran, Ryan Tepera, Danny Burawa, Darrell Ceciliani, Brian Fletcher, Mike Freeman, Jae-Hoon Ha, Marcus Hatley, Marco Hernandez, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Kohlscheen, Freddy Lewis, Matt Lollis, Matt Loosen, Kevin Munson, Hector Nelo, Angel Nesbitt, Boone Whiting, Omar Luis, Ronan Pacheco, Jarrett Parker, Tyler Kelly, Mike Freeman, Marcos Mateo, Alex Sogard, Brian Fletcher, Tyler Ybarra, Hector Nelo, Brett Eibner
I will add more links and names today as they come up
So we reach the end of our journey through the 40 man roster decisions, with position players. If you missed it I already discussed the players on the roster and the pitchers eligible. The position prospect list is actually quite small due to the Pence trade (Jonathan Singleton), Kyrell Hudson and Gauntlett Eldemire no longer being with the org, and Cameron Rupp‘s recent addition to the roster.
A year ago Joseph was the centerpiece of Hunter Pence’s trade to the Giants and a no doubt Top 10 prospect in the system. In the spring he looked like the catcher of the future showing huge raw power and an electric arm behind the plate. Joseph’s season got off to a rough start in AAA, but it ended up being only a 20 game sample size as his third concussion essentially ended his season. There are some doubts whether Joseph will be able to catch longer term, but he is back behind the plate in the Dominican right now with an eye on a comeback. If he can’t stay behind the plate he is not a prospect, but if he can stay behind the plate he has value at very least as a backup and that upside makes him a must protect this offseason. MPW: Keep Phillies: Keep Continue reading 40 Man Roster Decisions – Part 3 – Position Players
On the last day of the Winter Meetings is the Rule 5 draft. The Rule 5 draft is an exciting time because it is essentially free major league talent. However, since the rules have been changed to add an extra year of protection the talent available has dropped steeply. The Rule 5 draft still offers two main types of players, the first are low upside players who can fill the last spot on a roster for very cheap, the second type are higher upside players who likely have not been above A-ball that will need to be hidden on a roster for at least a year. The Phillies have had mixed success over the year with their most recent selections who have stuck of Shane Victorino, David Herndon, and Michael Martinez.
Phillies Select Ender Inciarte (22) CF from Arizona Diamondbacks:
Inciarte, a 2008 Latin American signee, finished up 2012 on the Diamondbacks Hi-A affiliate. He has shown good plate discipline without high strikeout rates (some can be attributable to repeating a level and then the Cal League). At the plate he has a small bit of power, enough to have it above a 20 tool but not a ton. He is quick on the bases with a good base running instinct. In the field his speed plays up allowing him to be a very good defensive CF. He will be overmatched at the plate so his chance of sticking depends on his ability to be a defensive replacement in all three OF positions. His ceiling is likely as a 4th OF if everything breaks right.
No Phillies were selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft
According to Phils Media Relations, the team has added OF Zach Collier and RHPs Ethan Martin, Trevor May, and Jon Pettibone to the 40-man roster. This protects them from the Rule 5 draft in December. Mild surprise that neither Jiwan James nor Leandro Castro were protected, leaving both exposed to the Rule 5 draft, (among other, seemingly less enticing players). Phillies leave 2 spots open for free agents or a Rule 5 pickup of their own.
Each December at the Winter Meetings is the Rule 5 draft, the draft was created in order to provide a path to the major leagues for players in deep systems that would otherwise be blocked. To be eligible for the Rule 5 draft a player must:
- Not be on a 40 man roster
- Have been in the minor leagues for at least 4 years if he was signed at or after age 19
- Have been in the minor leagues for at least 5 years if he was signed at or before age 18
The main point of interest here is which prospects will receive a 40 man roster spot in order to be protected in the draft. Two of the most controversial players Tyler Cloyd and Darin Ruf received spots on the 40 man roster has part of their September call-ups and are thus exempt from the draft. The Phillies have until November 20 to submit a 40 man roster to the commissioner’s office of those that are to be protected. Continue reading Rule 5 Draft Preview – 40 Man Roster Decisions
You know they will take someone. I’m not sure I’ll have time to do a detailed writeup today as the events unfold, but I will definitely update this space to reflect the player(s) we take and those we lose. So, check back later and use this spot to discuss the Rule 5 draft.
Update –> The Phillies did not make a selection in the major league phase, and Jiwan James was not selected. Both items are a surprise.
Glad Jiwan is sticking around, and hopefully his bat takes a big step forward in 2012.
The Cubs selected RHP Lendy Castillo, who it feels has been in the Phillies org forever. He’s never really been on the radar in terms of guys who could make an impact, and the Cubs will likely try to stash him as the long man in their pen.
Update 2 –> The Phillies didn’t make a selection in the minor league phase, but did lose Travis Mattair, Andy Loomis, and Francisco Diaz. Best of luck to them in their new orgs.
We’ve already been over who the Phillies have protected and left unprotected here. Jiwan James is the big name the Phillies are hoping to sneak through. The Phillies have been very active in recent years, always selecting at least one guy, and in the last two seasons, they’ve kept their guy (Mini Mart, Herndon) the full season and retained them moving forward, so you can assume they will take someone again this year. If they do, here are my suggestions for guys they should look at.
Bryce Stowell, RHP (CLE) – Stowell has a big arm, as he used to consistently sit in the high 90s, but has had some injury trouble recently and is now down in the 92-95 range consistently. Still, if he’s past his injury issues, he has a special arm and could fit in well in the middle of the bullpen. Like we saw with Herndon, stashing a reliever as your 25 man is pretty easy. The Phillies will have competition in the bullpen, and Stowell could fit in there. Over the last 2 seasons between A+/AA/AAA he’s put up this line: 106 IP – 63 H – 57 BB – 159 K. Still a little raw, but plenty of upside. Video here
Ryan Flaherty, INF (CHC) – Flaherty is the victim of a numbers game, as the Cubs have a bunch of high ceiling/bonus baby infielders they need to protect and he doesn’t really have a set position. In 2011 he played 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, RF and LF. That’s versatility. He hit .305/.384/.523 at AA before struggling a bit in AAA. He has lefthanded power and can play all over the field, so if the Phillies were looking for another bench bat, he’d be a good guy to look at. I suspect that he’ll get taken before the Phillies pick. Grainy video here.
Nick Barnese, RHP (TAM) – Barnese was a high ranked prospect as recently as 2 years ago, but like most Rays pitchers, he’s moved very slowly through the system and now must be protected. He doesn’t turn 23 until January, and has moved one level at a time since being drafted. He spent 2011 in AA and saw his walk rate jump a bit while his K rate dipped slightly. His groundball rate has dropped each year since turning pro, but was still a respectable 47% in 2011. He may have just gotten a bit stale in Tampa, or his stuff might have dropped overall. There’s only one way to find out…
Philippe Valiquette, LHP (CIN) – He can’t seem to stay healthy, but when he’s on the mound he throws 97-99 from the left side. Sometimes he knows where its going, other times he doesn’t. But that kind of arm strength is worth a $50,000 flier, and if he’s injured/sucks, you get half of that back when you offer him back to Cincinnati. If he can stay healthy and harness his stuff, he has impact reliever possibility…kind of like Antonio Bastardo at this time last year. Plus, collecting guys named Philippe (and all their alternate spellings) should be an organizational priority.
Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP (CHC) – Had Tommy John Surgery, but bounced back nicely in 2011 and posted this line in A+: 127.2 IP (career high) – 131 H – 43 BB – 117 K. Both his BB and K rates were improved from 2010 when he was recovering from surgery and he allowed only 10 HR last year with a 49% groundball rate. Would certainly be an interesting guy to look at as a reliever, though he’s been a career starter. He has four pitches, and his fastball sits in the 91-94 range as a starter, which could tick up in relief, and his change and curve are both solid average pitches.
Of course the Phillies don’t ask me for advice, and at this time last year I wasn’t writing up a piece on how they should take Micahel Martinez. So, we’ll see what happens.
Today is the last day for teams to add minor leaguers to the 40 man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 draft held at next month’s winter meetings. The Phillies will have a few interesting decisions of course, and I’ll update this space when everything is decided. As of right now, the 40 man roster looks like this:
Catchers (3): Ruiz, Kratz, Schneider
Infielders (10): Thome, Howard, Utley, H Garcia, C Hernandez, Polanco, Valdez, Galvis, Rivero, M Martinez
Outfielders (6): Bowker, Brown, Francisco, Mayberry, Victorino, Pence
Pitchers (16): Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton, Kendrick, Papelbon, Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, Herndon, Contreras, De Fratus, Savery, JC Ramirez, Mathieson
That means they are at 35. Obviously a few more MLB players will be added (OF, 3B possibly, SS for sure) but they still have plenty of room, and if need be, they can remove someone else from the roster. I’m looking at you, John Bowker.
So, the update will go here after its all settled. You can reference this post from last month where we talked about guys who could be protected. I think its a lock the Phillies will protect Valle, Aumont, Gillies, and Jiwan James. That would take the roster to 39, which gives them room to add one guy in the Rule 5 draft, assuming no other big league signings happen before then. But again, there are guys currently on the 40 man who are candidates to be outrighted off the roster. We’ll see what happens.
Update, 1:15 PM —> The Phillies protected Aumont, Valle, Gillies, and Jacob Diekman, bringing the roster to 39 right now. That leaves them one 40 man spot for the Rule 5 draft, barring any other moves.
I was going to do a bigger writeup on him, but I’ll save the words. As you can see from his track record, he has a limited offensive skill set. His batting average has fluctuated wildly, he doesn’t draw many walks, strikes out a fair amount, and hes capable of swiping a few bases. His greatest strength is his ability to play all over the field. With Wilson Valdez making the league minimum in 2011, it would seem Martinez will be in camp to compete for the 25th spot on the roster. The Phillies will, almost assuredly, go with 13 position players and 12 pitchers. So…
C (2) Ruiz, Schneider
INF (5) Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Valdez
OF (4) Ibanez, Victorino, Francisco, Gload
SP (5) Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, Worley, Blanton
RP (6) Lidge, Madson, Contreras, Reyes, Baez, Bastardo
That’s 22 of 25 spots. If Brown makes the team, or if another OF is brought in, that is 5, and will leave one spot open for a utility infielder. Last year, Dobbs would have been the extra infielder. So Martinez could fill that role. Who knows. The roster is still wide open, 3 spots are uncertain. We’ll see what happens.