Open Discussion: 40 man roster decisions

I wanted to throw this one out there. The rules under the CBA state that college players must be protected after 4 seasons (anyone age 19 and older when drafted) and high school kids 5 years after they are drafted. By my quick estimation, that would mean all high school kids taken in the 2007 draft have to be protected, and all college kids from the 2008 draft have to go on the 40 man roster. Which guys fall under those classifications?

Tyson Gillies (25th round, 2006)
Travis Mattair (2nd round, 2007)
Phillippe Aumont (1st round, 2007)
Jiwan James (22nd round, 2007)
Sebastian Valle (FA, 2007)
Colby Shreve (6th round, 2008)
Cody Overbeck (9th round, 2008)
BJ Rosenberg (13th round, 2008)
Tyler Cloyd (18th round, 2008)

Did I miss anyone?

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that a bunch of these guys are currently working it in the Arizona Fall League. The league is a double edged sword, allowing the parent club to get one last look to determine if the prospect deserves a 40 man spot, but it also gives high profile looks to other teams who may want to snatch a guy up in the Rule 5 draft come December.

120 thoughts on “Open Discussion: 40 man roster decisions

    1. If it’s high schools 5 years after they were drafted, wouldn’t that have made Gillies eligible last year?

  1. Mattair, Shreve and Rosenberg should be left unprotected. Not to say these won’t ever amount to anything but I highly doubt they would stick ona major league roster an entire year. James probably has the most upside of the group but I doubt he is ready to contribute at the major league level. Can’t see him sticking either (unless he is stashed on a bad team as the 25th guy) Still, I’d leave him off too.

    Overbeck and Cloyd are the closest so depending on how the Phillies feel about these guys will determine what they do. I’d probably protect those two.

    1. I agree. Overbeck is a must with the status of Howard up in the air. If Brown isn’t ready to start full time we either go with Mayberry in left of a FA. If Mayberry starts in left, Overbeck could be a cheap option as a holdover until Howard is ready.

    2. Agree those 3 guys (Mattair, Shreve, and Rosenberg) are not in danger of getting selected on major league rosters. James, Gillies, and Aumont must be protected. Cloyd is probably fighting for his spot now along with Overbeck. While both could get drafted, they are really pretty replaceable so they would not be a great loss. It depends on how many spots you need.

      1. Exactly what I was about to say. I seriously doubt either Overbeck or Cloyd would be picked anyway, and if one/both is/are, no big loss.

      2. You’re not going to list Valle as a definite protect? He’s the first guy I’d protect, followed by Aumont, then Gillies, then James. All 4 need to be protected.

    3. James is so good defensively that I think he could stick somewhere pretty easily as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch runner. I would not risk losing him.

      From this list, I’d protect James, Aumont, Gillies, and possibly Cloyd if there’s room. The others have some potential, but would not be great losses. I think Diekman is eligible too–if he can ever harness his stuff, he will be an excellent LOOGY. I’d try to keep him if possible.

  2. I think James and Gillies need to be protected, I know they don’t seem ready yet but if I am Houston, Pittsburgh, Seattle, or Baltimore that is the kind of guy I want in the 25th spot on my bench. Additionally there is always the chance if someone Rule V’s Gillies they just DL him for the year and get to keep him (they would have no problem finding an injury).

    Otherwise Aumont definitely gets protected and might even make the 25 man if he has a great Spring Training. I think Cloyd gets protected, but that might depend on what happens with KK.

    Overbeck is an interesting case but ultimately I don’t think he gets protected unless the Phillies think he can be at very least a back-up 1B right now, I also don’t see him sticking on a roster as he isn’t exactly a rare commodity.

    1. If a team selects a player in the Rule 5 draft and keeps them on the Disabled List for an entire season, they will still be required to keep that player on the active roster for the required time the next season to retain their rights.

      1. Players have to spend 90 non-September days on the active roster to become official property of their new teams. Otherwise, their Rule 5 status carries forward until the players spend 90 non-September days on the active roster

  3. Hard to believe anyone’s snagging Gillies or James and keeping them around for a whole year. If so, they’ll be stuck with an unprepared player who’s losing a very crucial year of development time, in either case. They’ll be a drag on a 25 man roster for one year and back in the minors the next and a drag on a 40 man roster for another year.

    1. I disagree, at least with respect to Gillies. I think a team like the Padres or the Mariners or even the Pirates could easily keep Gillies around and get themselves a nice player for future years. Gillies will be protected. James, I’m not so sure – I’m undecided on him, Cloyd and Overbeck. Aumont will definitely be protected – he could easily develop into a star major league player.

      1. Yeah, I kind of refined my stance on Gillies later. I think he’s got real value, and the more I think about it, the more I could see someone snatching him up.

  4. Here are a few more names that could possibly get drafted:

    Jake Diekman
    Matt Rizzotti
    Mike Cisco
    Derrick Mitchell
    Steve Susdorf
    Juan Sosa
    Sebastian Valle
    Leandro Castro
    Lendy Castillo
    Miguel Alvarez

    I think that Valle, Gillies, James, and Aumont are must adds. I think Diekman and Cloyd will definitely get picked if they aren’t added.

    1. I think that Leandro Castro is the unsong hero. He is the best player as far as having all 5 tools is concerned.

  5. That said, Gillies is worth adding if there’s a spot available. Not sure who would make sense over him as your next OF aside from the minor FA guys. Like if he hits in the first couple months in the minors, and there’s an injury, he’s a reasonable guy to have available without forcing a 40-man move.

  6. Isn’t it hard to form a list if you don’t know how many spots might be available? Maybe we should start there,

    1. A good question:

      My quick list of those gone would be:
      1 of MiniMart, Orr, Valdez
      2 of Moss, Gload, Bowker (I think they keep Moss)
      Ibanez
      Lidge (would stay only if Madson is gone)
      2 of Oswalt, Blanton, KK
      Scott Mathieson or Herndon (They bring different things but neither seems special)
      Kratz or Schnieder (or they ditch both for a FA catcher)

      That would be 9 spots freed up and that is with Rollins staying

      Two of the spots would be taken by Contreras and Harold Garcia coming off of the 60 day DL. I don’t see a Rule V pick this year (too many young guys who are better in those roles). Then you have to figure there are going to be 2-3 (maybe 4 FA pick ups).

      That gives 4-5 40 man spots if they really clean house (they could retain those on the list if needed though).

      1. The Phillies currently have 39 players on their 40-man, with Contreras on the 60 day DL. Pete Orr, Brandon Moss are already gone, outrighted to Lehigh Valley. Ibanez, Gload, Schneider, Madson are free agents, Lidge and Oswalt have options I believe.

      2. I think it will only be 1 of Oswalt, Blanton and KK. I say they don’t pick up Oswalt’s option. Assuming they can’t resign him for a lower figure (I say he goes to STL), they bring back Blanton and KK for the 5th spot (Blanton’s to lose and KK long man).

      3. Ibanez? Doubt it, but I guess if he’s willing to sign for cheap he could come back for a season. I also think, likely 2 of Mini-Mart, Orr Valdez (with Exxon as the likely odd man out) and 1 of Gload, Moss and Bowker. Since Gillies may make the 40 man, I’d want the positional versatility of Orr and Martinez available in case of injuries, instead of extra outfielders.

  7. In order of value in a Rule 5 draft…

    1. Phillippe Aumont. MLEs indicate MLB ready pitcher.
    2. Tyson Gillies. His biggest problem is injuries. That hardly hurts a Rule 5 team.
    3. Jiwan James
    4. Tyler Cloyd
    5. Cody Overbeck. I don’t think losing Overbeck would be a blow but he’d definitely be a valid pick.
    6. B.J. Rosenberg
    7. Colby Shreve. Unlikely but he’s a live arm.
    8. Travis Mattair

    The top four get chosen, maybe Overbeck as well. If Valle is eligible he’ll need to go on the roster, that’s a no brainer. Jacob Diekman may get selected. In his case the Phillies should probably let him go and let another team roll the dice. So essentially I agree with BJ above.

    1. Good list Alan. Knowing how much the Phillies love their vets it’s hard to see five spots opening….I would guess that would leave Cloyd as the odd man out – assuming Gillies stays healthy.

    2. Alan, I agree with this completely, except I’d probably put Diekman above Overbeck (LOOGYs are more valuable than bat-only guys who really haven’t hit all that well in the upper minors).

      I’m still holding out hope for Shreve and Mattair as prospects, but they’re so far away that nobody would pick them. As for the guy asking about picking players that can’t contribute right away, isn’t that exactly what the Dodgers did with Monasterios last year? It’s the right way to use the system, whether it’s good for players or not.

      1. I left out Diekman because he wasn’t on PP’s list. He’s a more likely selection than Overbeck but I think Overbeck would provide a bit more value. Diekman’s command isn’t there and it’s a 5% shot that it suddenly appears in March. Overbeck has pop and can play the corners.

      2. I agree that Diekman is worth more than Overbeck in a Rule 5 draft. If Diekman figures things out he could be a valuable ML pitcher next year. Overbeck is limited, his future is unclear and there are a lot of guys like that looking for major league jobs. He may end up being an ok major league player but there is little about him right now that would make him stand out in a Rule 5 crowd.

        1. Guys like Overbeck aren’t typically taken the the Rule V draft specifically for the reason mentioned by Catch, every team has guys like Overbeck in their system. He is a fringe ML bat without a position. Compare that with a guy like Diekman who destroys LH hitters but struggles with control.

          Picking a Rule V pick is all about hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with a guy who has a high-level skill (big arm, top speed, huge power, good defense at a key position, etc.) but has other shortcomings that haven’t (and may never) been solved yet.

          A guy like Overbeck has none of those things which is why I would put Diekman, Rosenberg, and probably even Shreve ahead of him on my list.

    3. Unfortunately Diekman will potentially be someone we see often if a team like Florida nabs him. He is death to lefthanded batters.
      From having watched a few games of Gillies while he was in Reading in 2010 before the injuries he looked way overmatched so I doubt strongly any team is going to grab him. The Phillies may add him to roster just because of the whole deal that brought him here. I hope not but it would not surprise me.
      I do think Cloyd and Cisco could be nabbed.
      Valle and Aumont will absolutely be added to roster.

      1. Gillies is struggling at the plate right now in the AFL…probably rust, but still early. Not sure if any team will take chance right now on him.

  8. Here’s my list I worked up in the middle of the season.

    Juan Sosa, RHP
    Geancarlo Mendez, INF-OF
    Luis Paulino, RHP (IF)
    Miguel Alvarez, OF
    Gabriel Arias, RHP
    Leonel Bastidas, RHP
    Francisco Diaz, C
    Alan Schoenberger. INF
    Tyson Gillies, OF
    Leandro Castro, OF
    Sebastien Valle, C
    Lendy Castillo, RHP
    Siulman LeBron, RHP
    Colby Shreve, RHP
    Torre Langley, C
    Jeff Lanning, C
    Anthony Hewitt, OF
    Travis Mattair, 3B
    James Murphy, 1B
    Troy Hanzawa, SS
    D’Arby Myers, OF
    Jiwan James, CF
    Tyler Cloyd, RHP
    Tyson Brummett, RHP
    Chance Chapman, RHP
    Michael Cisco, RHP
    Jake Diekman, LHP
    Jordan Ellis, RHP
    Justin Friend, RHP
    Chris Kissock, RHP
    Derrick Loop, LHP
    B. J. Rosenberg, RHP
    Steve Susdorf, OF-1B
    Phillippe Aumont, RHP
    Cody Overbeck, 1B
    Albert Cartwright, 2B-OF
    Matt Rizzotti, 1B
    Tommy Palica, LHP

      1. You mean J. C. Last time I looked he was on the 40 man roster. Didn’t include players on 40 man roster.

  9. The only two players I’d be legitimately worried about losing in the Rule 5 draft from this list are Aumont (who is a no-brainer to be protected) and Gillies (who I’m sure will be, due to the Phillies understandable desire not to give up one of the guys from the Lee trade). James is an intriguing prospect, but I’m not sure his middling success at Single A will entice another team to stash him on their roster next year. Here is a list of last year’s Rule 5 picks:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/final-update-on-this-years-rule-5-picks.html

    From a quick look, I count one pitcher (Nathan Adcock) who was picked out of High A ball last year and stuck with his team all year. Another A ball pitcher, Mason Tobin, got hurt and I think ended up sticking with the team that picked him, although I don’t understand all the rules surrounding Rule 5 and the 60-day DL. The rest of the guys who stuck were either pitchers from the high minors or utility infielders, like Michael Martinez. I think for obvious reasons it is easier to stash a guy on the roster if he’s a pitcher, and can sit out in the bullpen, or a guy like Martinez who can play a bunch of positions and add some speed at the end of the bench. I find it hard to believe that some team is going to pick Jiwan James and have him all season as a designated pinch runner/outfield defensive replacement. Even bad teams need their fifth outfielders to hit sometimes. But who knows? Maybe the Phillies feel the risk is high enough that they protect him.

    The guys on the list that I see who most clearly fit the profile of Rule 5 picks are Cloyd and Rosenberg. Both pitchers who have had some success at AA, who you might see as capable of playing a mop-up role. I know that Rosenberg in particular is someone the Phillies were high on at one point before the injuries. I can see him getting picked.

  10. I would rather protect Cisco and Diekman over Rosenberg, Shreve, and Mattair. I think Cisco could be a decent long reliever and Diekman could be that situational lefty, so far he has done a decent job in the AFL.

    1. I don’t see much in Cisco to be honest. He was exceptionally lucky in not allowing hits. But his strikeout rate wasn’t dominant and he walked too many batters. And while it’s easy to dismiss the idea of hit luck, it’s not a display that Cisco has displayed the last few seasons. We’re left with the 8-0 and 1.59 ERA, which are extremely deceptive stats for middle relievers (inherited runners and such). While Cisco’s ERA was lowest in the league, his WHIP is 13th among the same group.

      1. Resign Madson and let Conteras and Lidge walk.
        Cisco stays and makes the roster by midseason luck and all.

        1. Contreras has a contract, you can’t “let him walk” unless you cut him and pay him, which seems fairly pointless.

  11. I’m a little more bullish on Rosenberg than I’ve seen here. He was throwing solid mid-90s with some kind of decent breaking pitch a few years ago, was a dominant K pitcher most times out. Then injuries screwed him, put him on the back burner.

    2011, he quietly cam back to close to what he had been. Approached or pitched mid-90s pretty often, as I recall. A few crap outings mixed in, but mostly pretty effective.

    I think someone will gamble that he can be a solid 6th/7th inning guy, eat innings at a low salary, develop for the future as a 7th/8th inning guy. Not sure there’s a spot to protect him, but we ought to say he has a god chance of getting picked and at least some projection toward being an established bullpen guy in 2-3 years.

    1. I completely agree with you. I’ve personally seen games where Rosenberg has sat around 95 touching 97 on the gun. It seemed like his off speed was a little hit or miss but when it was on it could be a plus pitch. I think a lot of people on this board have completely written him off, but if it weren’t for his lat injury last year he could have easily been in Philly this year. I think a lot of teams like guys with big arms, especially ones that have command

  12. I think Valle, Aumont and Cloyd are locks to be protected. After that, depending on how many spots are available I’d protect (in order) Gillies, James, Diekman, Cisco, Castro, Rosenberg, Overbeck (obviously all these guys won’t be protected, nor should they be).

    The Phillies face a dilemna in regard to protecting the future of their outfield. I don’t see anyway they protect Gillies, James and Castro but it’d be a shame to lose one of them.

    Also, there are some young, interesting arms from Latin America that are available (Lendy Castillo, Siulman Lebron, and Juan Sosa). I wonder if a team could gamble on one of these young guys much like the Dodgers did two years ago w/ Monasterios (the guy from the Abreu deal).

  13. I added Valle to the list. I see the following players being taken off the 40 man roster this winter

    Lidge (option declined)
    Madson (FA)
    Oswalt (optioned declined)
    Kratz (outrighted)
    Schneider (FA)
    Bowker (outrighted)
    Ibanez (FA)
    Gload (FA)

    Also, the following players could be outrighted, and if they are claimed, I doubt it causes much of a stink

    Carlos Rivero
    Harold Garcia
    Scott Mathieson
    JC Ramirez (maybe less likely because of the perception of the Lee deal)
    Cesar Hernandez (he should be ahead of Rivero and Garcia in the org prospect ranking, so he should be safe)

    When you move Contreras back to active, that brings you to 40. Then remove 8 guys listed in the first round and you’re at 32. A number of those guys (Madson, Lidge, Ibanez, Gload) will be replaced by external options.

    I imagine that Gillies, Aumont, Valle, and Jiwan James would be protected. The Phillies have traditionally only carried 2 catchers on the 40 man roster (both at the MLB level), but they’ll go with 3 with Valle in AA. I think they should easily be able to figure out 4 spots on the 40 man for the 4 names I just mentioned.

    1. Just a hunch, but I don’t think they are going to let JC Ramirez go, at least not yet. He apparently throws in the mid to high 90s and showed significant signs of life at the end of last year. Somehow, I think he sticks around.

      Also, I’m a little surprised that so many people think Madson will not be back. If you forced me to guess, I’d predict something like a 65-75% chance that he will stay in Philadelphia. He’s as good or better than anyone else on the market and he continues to improve. The issue is where is the value tipping point for the team, assuming a 3 year contract (a safe assumption)? $11 million per year. $12 million?

      1. I think it is more that Madson and other spots like backup catcher and probably another bat need to be signed at some point. They will definitely have a closer on the 40-man over the winter at some point. Maybe they could add a couple people like a backup catcher on minor league deals till Spring Training, but they will need the roster spot at some point.

        Rivero also seems to be someone they will want to have at AAA all year in case they need an infield body and could even make the opening day roster as a backup to whatever new 3B they sign if Polanco is not ready.

        I think James has the right 4 that they must protect. Cloyd might be next, though he is also not the type of guy that gets claimed a lot. I am getting more intrigued with him every year. Given the roster logjam this is probably not the year to save a spot to select someone, though I suppose if they like another player better than Rivero or Cloyd or other options I would be for it.

      2. I would be extremely surprised if Madson gets that much per season. Heath Bell is on the market. So are Jonathan Papelbon and K-Rod. Madson’s numbers are good but he doesn’t have the reputation those guys have. Besides, the Yankees aren’t going in on this and I think the Rafael Soriano contract was a unique situation. I’m thinking $6-8 million a season.

        1. I hope you are right, but I would be surprised if Madson got less than $9 million a year and shocked if he got less than $8 million a year. I suspect the contract he gets (and I have no idea who gives it to him), will be 3 years for between $27-33 million. I think Madson would give the Phillies a small hometown discount, but not a lot as, apparently, his wife hates Philly.

          1. His wife apparently hates Philly, but didn’t Madson just build some ridiculously tricked out ‘green’ house in the area?

    1. I think 30 picks into the Rule 5 there’s really no one left who can help the Phillies. A few years ago the rules were changed to add a year before eligibility. That decimated the market. The guys we end up with are so low-ceiling that it’s just pointless.

      1. Teams that have 40 on the 40 man roster won’t be able to pick , so it won’t be 30th. Might only be a few picks in. The key word is a few years ago. The only year the market was affected was the first year. After that , it is the same players , only a year later. The players not available a year later would be the ones who make MLB between the 3rd and 4th year, and those would not likely be left off the 40 man roster regardless. Players taken after the 3rd year of professional play may hit a wall and flame out (a process sped along by the likely year of relative inactivity on the MLB roster) a situation better avoided with an extra year to look them over. The Rule 5 draft is about the only way to cheaply add talent of a certain age group. Some Latin American players can have the requisite time in and still be of Rule 4 draft age.

  14. Joe Blanton Update:
    Blanton allowed one run over five innings Saturday with a consistent 90 mph fastball.
    “It’s good,” Blanton said of his elbow. “I threw four innings in one game down here and five innings in another, throwing all my pitches, so I am feeling pretty confident.”
    Blanton is due $8.25 million next season in the final year of a 3-year, $24 million deal. He said his focus is on getting ready for the start of next year. “I’m just going to give it a rest,” Blanton said, “keep playing catch a bit, doing it light. I’m feeling good about my mechanics for the most part and the way my arm has felt. Now I will just try to keep it going, keep it healthy and be ready for next year.”
    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20111018_Blanton_pleased_with_Florida_results.html#ixzz1bA7GlSAH

  15. i think madson see’s the writing on the wall that this team is older and fading. it’s his time to “go for the money” and i think he will do that. regarding the main question here, i also think sosa can be one that a team will take a chance on. wirery kid who can throw. probably for another subject but, it will be interesting to see how many extra draft picks the phils have next june. could be a bushel.
    gm

      1. Well, I am as big a Mathieson fan as you are generally going to find on this blog, but if he’s going to do something, he better start right now. He has great velocity and has actually developed some pretty good breaking pitches. But his fastball is straight as an arrow and he lacks consistency and command of virtually all of his pitches. Right now, he is a borderline major league pitcher, but the underlying potential is there. Whether he is ever able to tap that potential is anybody’s guess and I doubt he gets protected this winter. Expect to see him on some team like the Padres or the Royals next year (I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays took a chance on him – they like back end relievers with power arms).

        1. I forgot the Astros – crap, he could be the Astros number 3 starter next year. And that’s only a slight exaggeration. Good God Ed Wade ran that team into the ground justifying every slight he received on this website (and there were plenty). He is a complete train wreck of a GM.

          1. In Wade’s defense, he’s also responsible for the Phillies having Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, plus several quality MLB players the Phillies traded for Blanton, Lee and Oswalt and minor leaguers flipped for Mayberry, Freddy Garcia (a huge whoops by Hall of Famer Pat Gillick) and others. Wade had his problems (middle relievers, contracts to veterans well past their primes). Complete train wreck is a little unfair, besides, the Astros were a full on disaster long before Wade got there.

            1. Train wreck was too nice—–he tried to trade Howard for Kip Wells. He wanted to unload Utley as well. He is a dunce when evaluating talent.

            2. Seeing as how neither trade happened, it’s a little unfair to blame him for those. I’m not saying Wade was a great GM, I’m not even saying he was a good GM (he was, honestly, pretty bad). I just think he gets blamed for things that never happened.

          2. I beg to differ…Ed is an Acela when it comes to GMs. He drafted all our super stars. He traded malcontents like Schilling and Rolen……for nothing actually, but whatever!

            1. Puhlease! Ed Wade did not run the draft. Competent people who his predecessor hired did that. He lucked out.

  16. Apologies for an off-subject question:

    Baseball America has issued its evaluations for the 2011 draft.

    Can somebody summarize their view of the Phils picks/signings?

    Thanks.

    1. Nothing to eye opening. Couple notes of interest:

      Giles touching 99 and sitting around 94-96. Inconsistent slider.

      Liked Austin Wright’s performance. Plus curve and fastball. Could be fast tracked.

      Also a note about Colton Murray being a very good late round pick. Could be a future set-up man.

      Then the stuff we all knew about regarding Greene, Walding, Quinn.

  17. FWIW, I believe Hewitt must be protected this year as well due to being 19 when drafted. Of course, there’s basically no way he gets picked up anyway – but being a high draft pick the Phillies might add him to the 40 man to prove it wasn’t a bad pick….

      1. It’s funny how often the “late bloomer” players really are not that at all. While it does happen from time to time that a player blossoms in the big leagues at a later age (John Mayberry is one of the best examples of this), normally, a “late blooming” player is a player that performs extremely well in the minors, but has been blocked at the major league level for a few years for one of many reasons including the existence of a more experienced player at the same position on the big league team or a perceived weakness in that player’s game, such as defensive limitations or a perceived inability to hit a certain type of pitch (curveball, inside heat, etc. . . .). Nelson Cruz is a great example of the latter type of player. If you think he was similar as a minor league player to Anthony Hewitt, think again. Nelson Cruz played out of his mind at AAA for the Rangers for a couple of years – hitting well over 30 homers a year, and well over .300 in only about 100 games each year. Nelson Cruz was a minor league stud. Anthony Hewitt is fast and is a fine physical specimen, but he has never performed well and there’s no indication that he will ever develop into a good enough hitter. It would be nice if he proved me wrong, but there’s no evidence that he will develop into a decent A+ player, let alone a major league player and I feel safe in concluding that, statistically, he could not be more different from Nelson Cruz – someone who hit like crazy throughout his minor league career.

    1. Was Galvis attacked with a hammer by a guy who looked like JRoll? Because I’m sure there couldn’t be sweeter music to his ears than this.

      1. Not sure how much this helps JRoll. I would have said the Phillies didn’t want a stopgap SS for as much as 2 years, because Galvis would be blocked. If Phillies worry about his wrist, then a 2-3 year stopgap isn’t a problem. It’s also less years and $ than Rollins wants. Best shot for Rollins is that the Phillies see no internal SS replacement any more advanced that those drafted this past June.

  18. tHIS TEAM IS OLD AND FADING?? now that is funny. people have to realize this is a top spending team if they get older they can spend the money to get younger if they want.

      1. We’re at the point where we don’t have to sign FA’s in their 30s to get younger. You can go a fair amount north of 30 to replace Ibanez and Polanco and get younger at the same time. Don’t need a twenty-something to replace Rollins and get younger.

    1. They can spend money to a point but where do you see the players worth spending on TO get young?

      They don’t have the revenue streams Boston and New York do.

  19. Ryan Doumit Hmmmm I wonder if Pittsburgh will pick up his option. Backup catcher and more who can help out at first. Oh well winter is for dreaming

    1. As I recall, Doumit’s option is for 2 years at 7.5 and 8.5, something like that, I don’t think Pittsburgh goes for that. Doumit just OK at Catcher and all right at 1B and LF, RF, but would he sign for a great deal less than he made last season? Don’t think by a great margin. Same goes for Pittsburgh’s other Catcher Chris Snyder who has around a 6.5 million option. If those guys aren’t willing for massive payroll deductions, no room in the Inn at Philly, I say.
      Not many of the veteran free agent C’s will sign for the minimum, so, I say, the retention of Kratz should not be ruled out. If they were big on outrighting him and Bowker, etc. they could have already done so.

  20. I did happen to catch Aumont at LHV after he came back from being shut down. He had real heat and a biting slider. He was unhittable when I saw him. I know that doesn’t translate into him being a closer in the bigs anytime soon but I could see him making the team as a 7th inning guy. If not, another season in AAA would probably not be the worst thing in the world.

  21. The aging problem that the Phils face and that all teams face is how to replace the star players as they get older.

    We don’t have to worry about the age of the pitching staff yet because Halladay and Lee are in top form. We also shouldn’t worry about the age of the outfield particularly if the Phils go with some combination of Brown and Mayberry in LF next year.

    The aging problem the Phils have is in the infield and primarily centers around what to do about Rollins, Utley and Howard as they get older and become injury-prone. I think they should try to keep Rollins and Utley a few more years and add a very strong utility guy who is able to play multiple positions and do an effective job when Rollins or Utley (or Polanco ) cannot play. Rollins is still able to play 140 games per season at career norms. Utley is still a good on-base guy who plays good defense and runs the bases well. If he can figure out to strengthen his legs, he might even be able to get some of his old power back. If not, he would be a good choice to bat lead-off.

    The Howard injury undoubtedly may be a difficult problem to solve the next few years.

  22. derekcarstairs The problem will only get worse year after long contract year. And if they commit to long term FA contracts…..

  23. Now is the time for the team to bite the bullet. Another “crippling” of the near future of the team via unjustifiable long term contract$ for J-Roll…as with Howard whose deal now hangs over the team for 5 more years like the Sword of Damocles as a limitation on the team’s ability to fill in the needed positions up for age grabs in a couple years.

    A desire to re-sign J-Roll is best expressed via the media, but that should only be a deceit to have the team appear not desperate. Getting 10 years younger at SS with Galvis is a chance very worth while risking. Howard–even if he does come back sometime next season–is likely to be so far behind the other MLB players as to be almost useless…except for his fattening bank account.

    3rd base is also an essential place to fill in with somebody –via free agency or trade–whose hitting is not puerile. Polanco would serve well as a filler-in when some infield position guy needs it. His time–face it–as a full time starter is over. Maybe 75-90 games at most…but useful for resting other infield guys over 162 games.

    Delaying the fix is to condemn the future longer term of the franchise.

    1. “Puerile” means silly or juvenile. Polanco’s second-half offensive performance was putrid. Maybe even vile. But puerile doesn’t fit.r

    2. This is all easy to say. But there is not a single FA Third Baseman who is any good, or any upgrade over Polly. And I can’t think of a team with spare Hot Corner prospects they could trade (not that I know who the Phillies could even offer back).

      At SS, Galvis has exactly 1 season in which he was a competent hitter. I hope that is legitimate and he can be a long term MLB solution, but it’s too early to rely on that being the case (unless you’re willing to live with 3-4 years a very realistic possibility of the second coming of Steve Jeltz until someone from this year’s draft, hopefully, is ready).

      Instead, sign Rollins for 3 years. If Galvis is the real deal, Rollins can, potentially, move to 3rd (many SS have done it at the end of careers) and fill that hole in 2013 until Martinez, Franco, Greene, whomever is ready to take the job. If one of those guys is ready, Rollins becomes a tradeable commodity you can use to fill other holes. If Galvis regresses and is a .230 hitter, then, at least you still have Rollins to cover SS until a kid is ready to take the job. Then worry about finding an FA to take 3rd.

      1. Yeah I think too many people are thinking Galvis is guaranteed success. I mean the bar for shortstops hitting is low but Galvis’ first good year with the stick was this year. Not to mention a guy like J Roll is above average with the bat and his glove. A team that many think doesn’t have the offense it needs won’t get better by plugging in a SS like Galvis right now without making a significant upgrade elsewhere. The problem is where is that significant upgrade going to come from? We all agree there is a need at 3B but like you said there isn’t really anyone there for it. The only people we could plug in there that are available would not solve the age “crisis”. I feel like getting rid of Rollins will not help a team that is built to win now not later.

        1. Getting younger for the sole sake of getting younger is ridiculous. You’d think we just had ther 2011 Mets season with some of the reactions. Yes, they’re an older team, but there’s no reason to panic about it.

        2. Too many people are thinking like the Phillies are a small market team rather than one of the 5 biggest spenders. Yea, their original “core” is getting older but in the next 2 years, both Polanco (2012) and Utley (2013) contract expire and they can/will be replaced with comparible FA signings if there are no internal options.

          Howard’s contract is the only real albatross the Phillies are stuck with at this point.

          1. They are one of the 5 biggest spenders but they aren’t going to go much higher than this. They don’t have the TV Network or the National Market and even the regional market that Boston and New York have.

          2. Ryan Howard and probably Cliff Lee later in his career. (Not that he won’t be effective but he won’t be worth the $24+ million he’s going to make.

            Especially with the 2nd Wild Card though the Phillies are most likely going to be contenders for the long haul even with those two contracts. They just won’t be the best team in the League (which is fine, don’t have to be the best).

        3. The problem is not how old Rollins will be next season. It’s how old he will be in 2015 or 2016, if he gets a 4 or 5 year deal. Polanco is less of a problem, since he’s gone after next season.

          1. Would be surprised if Rollins gets more than a 3-year deal with a team/mutual option for a 4th from anyone, including the Phillies.

        4. Above average with the bat for a short stop but he’s pretty mediocre. This was his first good year since 2007.

          I can’t see Galvis coming up and being that much worse than Ruiz at the plate. Defensively they aren’t going to lose anything and they’ll have Pence for the full year, so offensively, he shouldn’t really hurt them.

          Not saying don’t sign Jimmy… but I don’t want to see them to throw money at Rollins just because he’s “Jimmy Rollins.”

          1. Ruiz is a .280 type hitter with a very high OBP. I don’t think Galvis can hope to match that at this point in his career being how this was his first year of even having a decent bat at all. I still think Rollins can be a .270 type hitter for the next two or three years and still play great D. Galvis could only hope to match that at this point.

  24. On the 40 man roster decisions , here is a couple of quick moves to both improve the payroll situation and open a couple of spots. The non-tendering of Wilson Valdez and Benny Francisco.( Possibly also Kyle Kendrick, though I believe he could easily be traded. I also think Polanco could be traded, and maybe Joe Blanton- maybe with taking back some contracts or payroll adjustments on those last two). Valdez, if desired back could likely be returned by non-tendering and then signing to minimum, and Francisco could fetch 1 1/2 million in arbitration, and his role could be filled by a minimum salary player.

    Note: Jose Contreras has been activated from 60 day DL and is counting against the 40 (CSN Philly).

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