2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, May 6, 2019

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for discussion of the amateur draft and J2 signing period that are 1-2 months down the road.   I’m providing this space for those who are ready to enter discussion about this year’s crop of prospects.  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and J2 signing season.  This is NOT a space for you to continue complaining about past picks and the past/current draft philosophy.  That horse has been beaten to death in  weekly open discussions.  If you must, keep it there.


27 thoughts on “2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, May 6, 2019

  1. Here’s a weekend update on some top prospects for June’s draft.


    * On Friday night, Nick Lodolo (#10 KLaw, #6 Fangraphs) and Alek Manoah (#9 KLaw, #11 Fangraphs) faced off when TCU visited WVU. Lodolo was better. The TCU lefty went 6 IP (108 P), 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K. Manoah totaled 6 IP (120 P), 4 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 5 K.
    For the season, Lodolo is 77 IP, 60 H, 16 BB, 89 K, 2.34 ERA, .212 OBA.
    Meanwhile, Manoah is 82.2 IP, 56 H, 21 BB, 108 K, 2.07 ERA, .192 OBA in 2019.

    Here’s one of Lodolo’s K’s.

    Here’s a little bit of how it went for Manoah.

    1. * George Kirby (#24 KLaw, #21 Fangraphs) was very good again. On Saturday, he went 6 IP (102 P), 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB. 12 K against Hofstra. The Elon University RHP may pitch against lower level competition in the Colonial Athletic Conference, but you can’t argue with his results. This year, he is 77.2 IP, 60 H, 6 BB, 96 K, 2.20 ERA, .207 OBA.

      * Zack Thompson (#22 KLaw, #12 Fangraphs) continues to rise up draft boards. Yesterday, he helped lead Kentucky past Arkansas by going 6.1 IP, 3 R, 5 H, 6 BB, 11 K. The Kentucky LHP has totaled 78 IP, 50 H, 30 BB, 113 K, 2.03 ERA, .181 OBA so far in 2019.

      1. * For months, I’ve been mentioning Ethan Small for the Phillies in the third round because Fangraphs has him ranked at #103 (that’s up from #114 they had him last week). However, Keith Law released his top 50 last week, and he has Small at #50. We’ll see who’s more right.
        In any event, the Mississippi State LHP continues to dominate in the best conference in America. On Friday night, he allowed Texas A&M almost nothing. Small went 7 IP (108 P), 0 R, 0 H, 1 BB, 8 K. This season, Small has totaled 73 IP, 39 H, 18 BB, 122 K, 1.85 ERA, .155 OBA.

        * On Friday night, Arkansas used two potential third round pitchers to beat Kentucky. Isaiah Campbell started and went 7 IP (104 P), 1 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K. Matt Cronin closed out the win by going 2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 2 BB, 4 K.
        For the season Campbell is 78 IP, 61 H, 13 BB, 87 K, 2.54 ERA, .213 OBA.
        Cronin is 22 IP, 12 H, 13 BB, 34 K, 10 saves, 2.45 ERA, .160 OBA.

        1. Hitters:

          * Hunter Bishop (#8 by KLaw, #9 by Fangraphs) has been coming back down to earth over the past few weeks. This weekend in a series with UCLA (the #1 team in the nation), Bishop was held to just one hit (a grand slam) going 1 for 10, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 R, 4 RBI.
          Bishop is now at .354/.484/.792 19 HR for the season.

          * JJ Bleday (#7 KLaw, #5 Fangraphs) is headed in the opposite direction. The Vanderbilt RFer is as hot as anyone in college baseball. In a weekend series at South Carolina, Bleday went 6 for 10 (2 HR, triple, and a double), 5 BB, 1 K, 4 R, 5 RBI.
          For the year, Bleday is .352/.465/.791 23 HR’s. This will probably be the last week I’ll mention Bleday because there is no chance the Phillies will even be getting a sniff of him at 1-14.

          * Bryson Stott (#13 KLaw, #10 Fangraphs) went just 2 for 7 (both singles), 1 BB, 2 K, 1 R, 0 RBI, 2 SB in a 2 game series with Houston. This season, the UNLV SS is lashing .362/.498/.627 10 HR’s.

          * Josh Jung (#18 KLaw, #14 Fangraphs) is gaining some steam to possibly land in the Phillies lap at 1-14. The Texas Tech 3Bman went berzerk this weekend vs Oklahoma. Jung rung up 8 hits (5 doubles & 1 HR) in 13 AB’s, 2 BB, 0 K, 6 R, 4 RBI. For 2019, Jung is now up to .359/.495/.641 9 HR’s.

          1. * Braden Shewmake (#26 KLaw, #23 Fangraphs) had a rough weekend against Mississippi State. The Texas A&M SS went 1 (single) for 9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 CS, 1 E. On the year, Shewmake is .313/.369/.480.

            * Logan Davidson (#27 KLaw, #25 Fangraphs) went 5 for 9 (3 doubles & 1 HR), 1 BB, 2 K, 4 R, 3 RBI in a two game set with Gardner-Webb. The Clemson SS, and one time Phillies draft pick is .315/.432/.630 13 HR, 16 SB in 18 attempts.

            * Kameron Misner (#34 KLaw, #20 Fangraphs) continued a dissappointing junior season going 3 for 13 (double), 2 BB, 4 K, 4 R, 0 RBI, 2 SB vs Tennessee. Misner is at .293/.454/.508, 10 HR, 19 SB in 20 attempts this year.

            * Aaron Schunk (#46 Fangraphs, not in KLaw’s top 50) did not play this weekend. The Georgia 3Bman is recovering from a strained achilles, and is expected back by next weekend.

    2. I like both of these young men but I’m afraid neither will make it to our pick.

  2. Ty Hinkie. I am looking at some of these kids. I dont follow college like you do. so In jungs case, he has improved his average in three yrs, great obp. But i never saw him. is it a good conference is my question. how is his defense. Has he played in wood bat league. In your opinion and i know you follow college. Guys who dont hit in there early years and then in there senior year hit, does that scare you that they are a one year wonder? I read its a weak yr for pitching.

    1. rocco … Jung is fine at 3B right now. He’s even been playing some SS for Texas Tech. As you can see in the video above, he’s a big guy, and some (not all) people think he may eventually have to move to 1B or a corner OF.
      He plays in the Big 12 Conference. It’s probably the third or fourth best conference in the country. Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, Shea Langeliers, and Davis Wendzel are four other top draft prospects (off the top of my head) who also play in the Big 12.
      He hasn’t played on the Cape (wood bat). He’s spent his summers playing for US Collegiate National Team.
      BTW … Jung has been a very consistent college hitter. He’s been one of the top bats in America in each of his three seasons. He’s been elite the last two:

      2018 … .392/.491/.639 12 HR, 52 BB&HBP, 32 K
      2019 … .359/.491/.641 9 HR, 46 BB&HBP, 31 K

      Hunter Bishop is a guy who has been the most notable player to break out as a junior after two mediocre college seasons.

      And … yes, this is a weak year for elite college arms. However, there is depth for good college pitching. Teams can probably find above average college pitchers for most of day two.

    1. Why do you think the Phillies will go for HSer Gunner Henderson?
      He is another shortstop, possibly third basemen.
      Five straight years of position players would be something else for Johnny A to do.

      1. Henderson has been flying up draft boards. About a month ago, I mentioned him as a possible 7th rounder (?) for the Phillies.

        1. I guess some team will take him in the late first or supplemental CBA picks…Round A or even early in the 2nd round.
          Not sure the Phillies will take a shot at him at 14….Johnny A will have to be overly confident if that were the case.
          And right now I think his position is on shaky ground based on his recent first picks.

        2. Law also mentions the Cardinals and Yankees (two of the better drafting clubs) liking Henderson.

          1. Who knows…the kid could turn out to be the next Mike Trout.
            The Cardinals alreay scored a potential winner with the young 3rd basemen from Arizona…Gorman??…so maybe they will go for the kid shortstop from Alabama.
            The Yankees did it with Fresno State’s Aaron Judge at 32 in ’13 and Phillies took JPC.
            But I think the Phillies will lean pitcher this time around.

    1. That same draft has Manoah going 15. I can’t imagine Alamaraz passing on a college arm for a prep arm. I just don’t think that is how he drafts.

      1. Absolutely agree with you on that, v1. IMO, Manoah is the 90th percentile of what Allan can become in three years.
        I’d also draft George Kirby (1-19 in the CBS mock) and certainly take Josh Jung (1-20 in their mock) in front of Allan.
        I also really like JJ Goss (1-32) and Andrew Schunk (not mocked) in the CBS scenario.

  3. Here are more mock drafts from Prep Baseball Report.
    IMO … the most reliable mock of the three, is the one in the middle. Dave Seifert used to scout for the Phillies, and has connections throughout MLB. Seifert has the Phillies picking Gunnar Henderson. The other two writers have the Phillies drafting Jackson Rutledge and Matt Allan. I don’t see the Phillies taking Allan, he reportedly is not going to take an under-slot deal. Just can’t see Johnny Almaraz paying slot for a first round prep player.

    1. HaHa … I just realized Johnny A has already given a full slot bonus to a HS first round pick. I should probably say I can’t see Almaraz making the same mistake he made with Cornelius Randolph.

  4. Latest BA mock (from today) has Phillies taking Brennan Malone

    1. Thanks for sharing that.
      Definitely a high upside pick. However, I’d still have to see it to believe Johnny Almaraz would pick a prep arm in round #1.

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