Open Discussion: Week of May 6, 2019

Weekly Discussion

The Phillies went 3-2 last week.  They opened with an unfortunate split with the Tigers when they ran into a hot pitcher in Spencer Turnbull who had given up one earned run in his previous two starts.  That happens.  The second loss was a particularly brutal loss on Saturday to the Nationals.  Three unearned runs on errors by pitchers (guess they didn’t take spring PFPs seriously enough).  Seven runs by the bullpen.  That happens, too, but it shouldn’t happen to a team with playoff aspirations.

So, what’s the answer?  It’s NOT signing Kimbrel.  Teams are rightly scared off by his contract demands and his poor performance at the end of last year.  The answer is in Lehigh and maybe Reading.

The Phillies start a road trip this week with 3 games in St. Louis (20-13) and 3 in Kansas City (12-23) with an off day on Thursday.  DH next weekend, woohoo!  I think.

Won’t be Aaron Altherr.  The outfielder was DFA-ed last week when Odubel Herrera came off the IL.

The 40-man roster stands at 40, the entire organization stands at 350.

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.  Still don’t want to hear about any mythical Trout trades.

Key Dates:

  • June 2, 2019 – DSL Phillies Red begins its 2019 season
  • June 2, 2019 – DSL Phillies White begins its 2019 season
  • June 3-5, 2019 – 2019 Rule 4 Draft
  • June 14, 2019 – Williamsport begins its 2019 season
  • June 24, 2019 – GCL Phillies East begins its 2019 season
  • June 24, 2019 – GCL Phillies West begins its 2019 season
  • July 31, 2019 – Non-waiver trade deadline
  • September 1, 2019 – Roster expansion to 40 players (for the last time)
  • September 17, 2019 – beginning of the Arizona Fall League
  • October 12, 2019 – Arizona Fall Stars Game
  • October 27, 2019 – Arizona Fall League Championship Game

The rosters and lists are up to date. 

Transactions 
5/5/2019 – Clearwater placed RHP Spencer Howard on the 7-day IL
5/5/2019 – LHP Ethan Evanko assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood
5/5/2019 – RHP James McArthur assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
5/4/2019 – SS Jimmy Rollins retired
5/4/2019 – Ben Aklinski assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
5/4/2019 – Andrew Brown assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
5/4/2019 – Austin Ross assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
5/4/2019 – Ismael Cabrera assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
5/4/2019 – Luis Carrasco assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
5/4/2019 – Julian Garcia assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
5/4/2019 – Phillies Designate Aaron Altherr For Assignment
5/4/2019 – Phillies activate Odubel Herrera from the 10-day IL
5/3/2019 – LHP Jakob Hernandez assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
5/3/2019 – Alexis Rivero assigned to Williamsport from Reading
5/3/2019 – Benjamin Brown assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
5/3/2019 – Tyler McKay assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
5/3/2019 – Jhordany Mezquita assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
5/3/2019 – Dominic Pipkin assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
5/3/2019 – Bryan Alcala assigned to Voluntarily Retired List by GCL East
5/2/2019 – RHP Seth McGarry assigned to Lehigh Valley from Clearwater
5/2/2019 – Lakewood placed C Rafael Marchan on the 7-day IL
5/2/2019 – C Jack Conley assigned to Lakewood from GCL East
5/1/2019 – Lehigh Valley placed LHP Ranger Suarez on the 7-day IL, abdominal strain
5/1/2019 – LHP Jakob Hernandez assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
5/1/2019 – LHP Jeff Singer assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
5/1/2019 – Reading activated LF Cornelius Randolph from the 7-day IL
5/1/2019 – Reading placed 3B Jose Antequera on the 7-day IL
5/1/2019 – Clearwater placed LHP Kyle Young on the 7-day IL
5/1/2019 – RHP Kyle Glogoski assigned to Lakewood from GCL West.
5/1/2019 – James McArthur assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
5/1/2019 – Grenny Cumana assigned to Williamsport from Reading
5/1/2019 – Alejandro Requena assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
4/30/2019 – 3B Jose Gomez assigned to Reading from Clearwater
4/30/2019 – RHP Colton Eastman assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood
4/30/2019 – LHP Manuel Silva assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/30/2019 – Lakewood activated 2B Hunter Stovall
4/30/2019 – Alexis Rivero assigned from Williamsport to Reading
4/30/2019 – Luis Carrasco assigned from Clearwater to Williamsport
4/30/2019 – Julian Garcia assigned from Clearwater to Williamsport
4/30/2019 – Grant Dyer assigned from Williamsport to Clearwater
4/30/2019 – Damon Jones assigned from Williamsport to Clearwater
4/30/2019 – Seth McGarry assigned from Williamsport to Clearwater
4/30/2019 – Carlos Betancourt assigned from DSL White to GCL West
4/30/2019 – Phillies signed International FA P Camilo Hinestroza, assigned to DSL White
4/29/2019 – Lehigh Valley placed OF Jan Hernandez on the 7-day IL
4/29/2019 – 3B Ali Castillo assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
4/29/2019 – LHP Jeff Singer assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
4/29/2019 – Luis Ramirez assigned to Reading from Williamsport
4/29/2019 – 3B Alec Bohm assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood
4/28/2019 – 2B Grenny Cumana assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
4/28/2019 – Clearwater activated LHP Zach Warren from the 7-day IL
4/28/2019 – RHP Victor Santos assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/28/2019 – RHP Francisco Morales assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
4/28/2019 – Grant Dyer assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater
4/28/2019 – Gustavo Armas assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
4/28/2019 – Jhordany Mezquita assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
4/28/2019 – Dominic Pipkin assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood
4/28/2019 – Seth McGarry assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater

410 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 6, 2019”

  1. Well here I am half awake in the wee hours prepping for my colonoscopy later this morning….I’ll spare you the visual.

    As I posted last night on last week’s thread, the bullpen will likely have a turnstile installed. Above, Jim mentioned help from Lehigh and possibly Reading. I would also suggest they draw from the current starting rotation in Vince Velasquez. While I like Cole Irvin a lot, I don’t think throwing him into the heat of a playoff chase would serve either his development or the team. And I don’t believe young hopefuls like DLS or Anderson are trustworthy yet.

    My target – via trade – is having an impressive early 2019 with the Rangers – Mike Minor. What a boost he would bring to a rather tenuous staff! If Kapler is continuing to use the bullpen the way he has in his first year plus, these fair to middling arms will be shot by July if not sooner. Minor will provide the innings to alleviate that problem, if not solve it completely. Nola, Arrieta and Eflin don’t appear to be going anywhere by virtue of their pedigree and/or performance thus far. Eickhoff certainly has given the brass hope for some stability with his tested metal and experience. Now for the inevitable – injury.

    Klentak has reportedly checked in on lefties going back to the winter and early spring, including Minor and MadBum. Another intriguing southpaw is one we faced a week or so ago – Miami’s Caleb Smith. Not sure if the GM could go to that well again after pulling off the Realmuto deal. But if Minor is too hard to get, pursuing Smith would be my second option. Bumgarner is tricky. How much are you willing to offer for a rental, albeit one with as much playoff success as him.

    We’ll see….

    1. Oh, and while I don’t question the legitimacy of Spencer Howard’s stint on the IL….any more than I did with Sixto Sanchez….I can’t help but ponder the idea that the Phillies brass would rather “stash him away”(?) as potential trade talks approach. I doubt they would withhold talent like Medina or Irvin in a possible trade scenario. But I would offer those 2 for Minor, along with one or two of our young outfielders, and a catcher, of course. Wonder if Marchan will be healthy again by the deadline…??

    2. Gl luck with that test. the hard part is done the prep is the worst part. I Just had one done. i just dont understand why Romus gets one every year. I love to get Caleb
      Smith i mention it the other day. Minor too. I think this is V.V last start, he will go to bullpen. He could be a nice eighth inning guy, possible in time a closer. i just cant stand seeing Neris closing

      1. rocco….hah….”i just dont understand why Romus gets one every year.”….intermittent fasting is a good thing.

        The relievers I want added or called up from LHV in a pinch…Edgar Garcia or Rios…..and like to see what JD Hammer can now do in LHV.

      2. Yeah Minor would be a good get but the Rangers are playing 500 ball and I think second in the league in runs scored. They probably aren’t inclined to make any moves regarding Minor until the trade deadline.

        I wanted to get angry after they blew the game Saturday but I couldn’t. Going to Morgan was the right move on paper. He just missed his spots.

        Visiting with my nephew on Saturday he says guess who my new neighbor is “JT Realmuto”. I said GTFOH the kicker is my nephew doesn’t really follow baseball.

        Haddonfield for some reason is a gathering spot for Pro athletes and rumor has it Harper may be next. We were heading out to watch my great nephew play soccer and its like tour. Mostly Hockey players then you have Wentz, Foles house is on the market and Flacco.

        1. Jersey is the happening scene.
          Next thing you know Mike Trout will moving on up to Haddonfield! 😉

    3. I love Caleb Smith. If he pitches against all teams like he does the Phillies, he’d be a shoe in for a #2 slot. I can’t imagine he’d be cheap though, and our minors, imho, are not a strong source right now.

      1. A package for any quality LHP may have to draw from the major league club. The farm alone doesn’t have what it’ll take.

    5. GL with the surgery bud, getting old is a beeee. Hopefully your doctor is on the mark! I’ll see my myself out …

  2. Howard Eskin always states that a manager doesn’t win you any games he can only lose them. Maybe up to 9 games a year for a poor one. Well Saturday night is a prime example of one of the 9 that Kap can lose; instead of leaving Neshek in the game with a 3 run lead and a powerless lefty coming up, Stephenson, he goes to a lefty with a Phillie-Killer on the bench with power, Suzuki.

    I was driving home from my granddaughter’s gymnastics meet 3 hours away in central NC listening to the game. I was all kinds of happy until the 8th and Kap puts his superior baseball smarts into the mix. Of course I switched it off quickly after the 3 run homer only to find out that another HR was hit.

    Yesterday soothed me, which is why I love baseball, you don’t have to wait too long for the next opportunity for a win. Kap, control your control.

  3. I don’t understand what happened to Aaron Altherr. He was a really good player two seasons ago.

    1. I think he got figured out by the league, and he didn’t figure out the league back.

  4. Haseley’s start to 2019 is better than his end-of-2018 stint in AA.
    – Walk rate up materially 14% vs 10%
    – ISO up .179 vs .162
    – BB/K ratio up .93 vs .84
    – K rate is up 15% vs 12% but still very low
    – Ground balls % down 44% vs 47%
    – Infield pop-ups down 8% vs 15%

    So he is walking a lot more. And more relative to his increased (but still very good) k rate. He is hitting for more power and hitting the ball in the air to the outfield more. All good trends. So why is there general gloom on him where last year many thought we should trade a player with three seasons of 3 WAR to make room for him? Because his batting average on balls in play is down 77 basis points – .250 vs .327. If you are down on him, it is because you overly value batting average in small samples.

    My view remains that he is somewhere in between the elite prospect that many thought he was last year and the prospect who had a bad start to the season and now many are down on. I think that he is a major leaguer. But I don’t see a star or a highly valuable contributor. I think that he is a solid, gamer type that hangs around for a long career, might put up one 3 war season but is mostly a replacement level player (1-2 WAR). Solid but unspectacular. Which, at the league minimum salary, is valuable to the big club. If he adds more pop as he gets into his late 20s, he could be a valuable contributor. For some reason the name that comes to mind as a comp is Jim Eisenreich. The Benetendi comps were unfortunately never real. Wishful thinking.

    1. This again is good work by you V1. As much as most of us know we shouldn’t scout box scores its also human nature or laziness

      Looking for reasons to be optimistic about a 1st round 6th overall pick is a good thing and finding reasons to dream on a guy is a good thing. Hoping for a late bloomer is a good thing too.

      I studied Yelich a bit the other day because my gosh what an age 26 season and 27 season he is having.

      Would it surprise anyone to know that he was a 1st round 23rd overall pick out of HS who only played 49 AA games and 2 AAA games before making it to the MLB.

      1. That’s good stuff, v1. The Eisenreich comp sounds like a not too bad outcome, although I’m hoping for a little more pop/power than that.

  5. After pitching 2 strong innings yesterday, De Los Santos was sent down to Lehigh. It’s an understandable move because Velasquez is starting today in St Louis. I’d like the Phils to bring up Pivetta, because this team has too many 1 inning pitchers.

  6. If Harper was worth $330 Million and I get that Middleton had to have him at least for the gate what is Hoskins worth? He’s 26 making $575K not arb eligible until 2021 and can’t become a FA until 2024 at age 31.

    1. DMAR….they may yet offer a LTC to him, buying out a few arb years
      But do not see that happening until after this season…and then they will have to buy out his pre-Arb plus 3.
      RHos. ought to think about acquiring a new agent at that point if there are indications he will be advised to waiting.

      And I am still waiting for a JTR LTC offering.

      1. Romus I’m not sure why I care but I can’t help think to myself what a player must be thinking. everyone in the world knows what the other is making in the MLB.

        Goldschmidt is probably a fantastic comparable. He’ll get $14.5 million this season then $26 mil for the next 5 seasons thru age 36. A nice but puzzling gesture by the Cardinals.

        The Phillies are almost forced into doing the wrong thing. Goldschmidt’s AAV from his age 27-32 seasons works out to roughly $16 million. Do you offer Rhys a 7/$126 million contract today?

        The Bregman contract is pretty neat coming from the Luhnow group. He got $649K this year. The next 3 seasons he will get $13 million and then the last 2 years $30.5 Million and a FA at 31

        1. I like Goldy but his numbers were definitely inflated by Chase field. I think the Cards giving him all that money (5 years, $130M) is a mistake.

          The problem with Rhys is that Scott Boras is his agent. Not sure if we wants to take a team friendly deal.

    2. Hoskins has been great for us, but a slugging 1B with an average glove are not that hard to find. Unless Hoskins turns into Joey Votto (who at age 26 had 7 WAR and won MVP), you can’t overpay for him. Offer him a deal to buy out 1 or 2 FA years, and that’s it. If he doesn’t want to do that, let him play out his arbitration years and let him walk.

      Don’t forget, if Bohm can’t stick at 3rd, 1B is obviously an option.

      1. Offering him a LTC in a year or two does not have to be an over-payment.
        As much as people like to tink..harper;s was not an over-payment when yuo considered the next 5/6 years are prime years and it is still AAV….same with Kingery and Herrera.
        it is a matter of good fiscal responsibility and a sign of good faith.
        I really do not think the Phillies will go over-board with Hiskins and Boras if an offering is to be made.
        They do one thing right vs the the older regimes of Gillick/Amaro and Monty…they do not over pay it appears.

        2. For me, the over payment is always at the end of the contract. Giving Harper 13 years is pretty steep, since you have to figure that his last 3-4 years of the deal might look real bad. So it’s the same way with Hoskins, if you pay him into age 34 or something like that. Now obviously if we win titles, all is forgiven. But I think everybody here remembers Ryan Howard’s extension. I love Ryan Howard but if you take away the emotion and just look at his numbers, he stopped giving meaningful WAR at age 30. And he fell off a cliff at age 32.

      2. Easy to find?

        Rhys is 6th overall in offensive WAR.

        https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

        Even with his bad defense, he is on pace to put up a 6.6 WAR season.

        Do you know the last time that we had a position player with a 6.6 WAR season? Chase Utley in 2009. Ryan Howard’s highest WAR is 5.9.

        You want to run him out of town for a kid in A ball?

        2. I like Rhys Hoskins, but I’m NOT in favor of giving him a crazy deal. Might he get to 6 WAR this year? Possibly. Can he sustain it for years to come? Doubtful, because of his defense. His range and speed will only get worse as he ages. So let him play out his arbitration years, and let him walk. The Phillies are not obligated to give him crazy money. If he’s willing to deal, then we should listen.

          I’m not saying that you can find a 6 WAR 1B off the street. But you’ll be surprised how easy you can find a 2-3 WAR 1B for cheap. And Rhys at age 32+, that just might be what the Phillies will get from him at that age.

          1. Do you know the difference between having a 6 WAR player and a 2-3 WAR player in your lineup every day? never mind, no need to answer that.

            1. My argument is not with Rhys Hoskins at age 26. My argument is more about paying say $25-$30M for Rhys Hoskins at age 32+.

          2. Guru…”So let him play out his arbitration years, and let him walk.”…yikes.
            Unless the Phillies have a few rings by then….that would send a bad message.
            Morale …and more ale is important in the clubhouse!

            1. My guess is the Phillies will try to extend him and will overpay him for his arb years, buy out a couple of FA years and give him vesting options for a few more. Something like that.

            2. Yes I see it that way also.
              People can question some of the baseball operational personnel moves they may have made these last 3/4 years, but this FO does seem to make overall sound and rational fiscal decisions when it comes to contracts. .

            3. Why would that send a bad message? Stuff like that happens all the time. Let’s put it this way, if you had the opportunity to NOT give Ryan Howard that extension, you wouldn’t have done it right even thought he was great in the clubhouse.

            4. After they just won the World Series and just went to a second one vs the Yankees….one month into the 2010 season, Ryan Howard and the Philadelphia Phillies agreed to that $125 million extension….in hindsight no…..but you do not make decisions like that in the present moment.
              The extension I would have made…..but 10/15% less than was offered..

  8. Pitch tracker confirms the eye test that Harper is being fed a constant diet of fast balls. One would think that, despite little spring training,he would have his bat up-to-speed by now. Bryce should be feasting and instead it’s a low carb diet, if not a fasting.

    This bullpen, as composed, needs big leads to protect. Harper has to be a linchpin for an offense you want scoring 6 tuns or more each time out.

    1. Agreed the thing that concerns me most about Harper is he is missing Fastballs. It’s not even that he is late he’s just flat out missing them.

    2. Harper’s problem isn’t catching up to fastballs but rather pulling off of pitches on the outer half of the plate right now. He will get it figured out but fans are going to be greatly disappointed if they expect Harper to be more than what he is, which is a streaky hitter that can carry a team for stretches during the season.

      He will get on base and hit homeruns but he’s not going to hit for average and he will strikeout around 150 times per year…

      1. 3up – agree with you on Harper – he is pulling off pitches and turning too soon so he is getting a steady diet of pitches in lowest outside quadrant. He looks lost – but did turn on a high inside fastball in his last AB to drive in a run. Change coming ?

      2. 3up…agree.
        Typical Harper season.
        Goes into the tank for a stretch, then comes out and carries a team on his back for a stretch. True indication of a streaky professional athlete.
        The only year where it did not happen was 2015….and then April was his lowest production..and that was only 286/.440/.545

      3. There was a Vegas line of +/- 35hrs for Harper, and I wanted action on that. Couldn’t find it, but .. I’d still take that bet now. He’ll get his, and really, what I want out of him, is a BIG postseason. This team should be good enough with what it’s currebtly doing, will just want him to step up then. You can keep the gaudy regularly season stats, I hope we see a beast in the playoffs. Ruiz stepped up his offensive game in the postseason. If Harper can be the baseball version of Danny Briere in the playoffs, were set

        1. Tac3…sad news.
          Harper’s post-season slash over 100 PAs……211/.315/.487.

            1. Lets hope the Phillies get there so he can redeem his post-season failures.

  9. If my calculations are correct, After taking 2 of 3 from Washington the Phils are 4-4 against the Nationals, 3-0 vs the Braves, 3-3 with the Mets, and 5-2 vs the Marlins. So after 24 games within the division they are at a plus 6. That’s not bad!

    1. If they go the entire year being .500 or better against everyone in the division, there’s pretty good odds they win the division. They’re definitely playing well, despite how some people like to paint it.

  10. Still early, but is anybody worried that Jake Arrieta might opt out of his contract at the end of the season?

    2. Don’t think he would but Phillies can preempt that happening by picking up the last 2 years at $20m per which I expect they will do..

      1. So you’re in favor of picking up his option? He needs to be a 3 WAR player the rest of his Phillies career. Although at this point, our options are limited if VV/Eickhoff/Eflin go downhill.

        1. I think 3 more seasons at $20M is an little bit of an overpayment for Arrieta but I also don’t know that they have many options at this point not to do so. Expecting all of VV, Eickhoff, Eflin, etal to develop into consistent starters is too much of a risk at this point..

  11. Based on a little bit of recent history and a lot of hunch, I think the Mets will be the team dogging the Phils all season long. Saying with the ‘dog’, I expect the division will be a dogfight to the point where the NL wild cards come from other divisions this year.

    I think the Phils will make a ‘Sean Doolittle trade’ at the deadline to pick up the best closer obtainable from a non-contender at the deadline, The Phils don’t have a pen to take them far in the playoffs, if they make the playoffs.

    1. I have Doolittle as a priority trade target, too. However, I’m not sure if the Nats will be willing to part with him even if they’re not in contention because Doolittle has a team friendly (6.5 million dollar) option for 2020. If the Nationals do deal him, he won’t be cheap.

      1. There is no way the Nats are dealing Doolittle to the Phillies. We would have to overpay like crazy.

        1. I phrased my message above in a clumsy way. I was referring to the Nats’ picking up Doolittle from Oakland once the A’s were out f contention. I hate to think of what the Phils would have to overpay for Doolittle any time this season.

      2. Cincy’s 29-year old Raisel Iglesias will be available, and probably cost less than most….he is also stinking up the joint now with a 4.4FIP giving up HRs late.
        Maybe all he needs is a change of scenery to a contender.

        1. Romus Iglesias would fit great with the bullpen we have. Another guy who cant get anyone out

          1. LOL…..he is struggling right now….but the last few years he was excellent.
            Relievers run hot and cold a lot of the time.

            1. I’m not sure if I could name 10 relievers who have been consistently good the last 3 yrs, ie track record, and pitching well this yr. relievers are such guess work yr to yr and those with any consistency are invaluable

  12. 3 names for closers the Phils should pay attention to are Shane Greene (Tigers), Raisel Iglesias (Reds) and Shawn Kelley (Rangers). Kelley didn’t distinguish himself in Washington but appears to be back on track. Proposing specific trades presents a risk but among the guys I would make available are Velasquez, Medina, N. Williams and, if it enhanced negotiations, the resurgent CeHe. If Scott Kingery straight up brought back Greene,I’d have to consider it though the Tigers would probably want more. If Velasquez and Williams brought back Iglesias, I’d spring for that. Kelley would be the cheapest and would move the needle the least but I’d kick the tires. This assumes the Phils don’t spring for Kimbrel and go for someone with a current track record for ’19.

    1. Alex Colome is another name- been traded for very little the last 2 seasons, making 7 mil this year with the White Sox, 1 more year of arbitration, years of 47 and 37 saves under his belt.

  13. Edgar Garcia finally called up. I’m assuming DLS was sent back down after two innings yesterday. Good luck Edgar.

    1. Time for Edgar to get a big time adrenaline rush and become da man….for at least a little bit of time anyway.

      1. Romus is Edgar the guy we sent down earlier? Cause that guy had a 92 mph fastball and a breaking ball that i didnt think was that great,

        1. No…he has not made his major league debut yet.
          Maybe tonight.
          Perhaps you remembered him from spring training.
          He was not spectacular in training camp and the few times he pitched in the games.

  15. A VV start is essentially a bullpen game with him pitching the first 4 innings.

  16. The bats were dead on arrival.
    Gabe must have promised Vinny he’d keep him in long enough until the game was out of reach. The team might as well have stayed at the hotel tonight. They would be just as productive and probably more energetic.

  17. I have had VV’s back during this season, but not anymore. It’s the same old VV: only fastball, his secondary pitches were too average, too many balls out of his hand. He just has not improved during his time here. If he still has options, he needs to join Pivetta at Lehigh and give a long look to DLS in the rotation.

    1. Now in his 4th year in major league baseball, Velasquez looks like a AAA arm still struggling to find his command like he’s wearing a blindfold. Enough already.

      1. i think the bullpen one inning guy is the answer, if he can not walk guys. 8mark did you keep the pictures, from your test, hope everything is good

        1. Sorry no pics, Roc. Went well thx. Had one when I turned 50. Routine. The prep is what really sucks. The procedure itself is just like taking a 45 minute nap. All you guys 50+ get to it if you haven’t. This public service announcement was brought to you by the law firm of Herrera, Hernandez and Velasquez, specializing in brain trauma cases.

          2. 8mark….you got a 45 minute nap.!
            WTF….they let me have the best sleep of my life now…..for about 10 minutes…. before the nurses start clanging something next to my gurney in the recovery room waking me from a sound sleep.

            1. Romus that cause they know you, from getting them a lot. Heard you have a album of t he pictures,

  18. Edgar Garcia got his debut and I’m not impressed. He looks he has some deception in his delivery, but his fastball is a bit straight and his slider seems to break early. The Cardinals are a good hitting team and obviously seeing Garcia for the first time, but they drove his slider deep. He didn’t get a strikeout in his 3 outs, and he couldn’t strike out the pitcher.

  19. Sad to say, you are right. Pivetta needed to go down and now Vinnie does. We can’t go every 5 days where the SP can’t go past 4 innings.

    2. VV has had his chances, just like Pivetta had his chances, just like Altherr had his chances, just like Nick Williams has had his chances. I vote for DLS getting a good long look as a starter.

      1. True. I’ll give VV 1 more start, but let’s say I’m not optimistic. St. Louis has a decent lineup, it wasn’t the marlins, and the results were what we feared. He needs to be getting into the 6th, with a chance to get into the 7th not
        Out of gas by the 4th, and a miracle to enter the 5th

        1. Tac3…shakes off JTR twice with 2- strike counts against Molina and DeJong…both take him deep. I do think Gabe is ls losing patience with him as a starter based on his post-game remarks.

          1. Your 3-4-5 hitters were ofer without even a BB…

            They looked ill prepared again at the plate. For all the thought they supposedly put into analytics and hiring Mallee and Firing Kranitz this team too often seems to come out flat.

            They are fine when they are going good but that’s not the measure of a good team IMO

          2. Romus, Let’s hope Gabe’s patience is wearing out.

            VV has had years — not weeks, not months, not a number of starts — he’s had years to mature mentally and still sticks to the approach that he has been told over and over again doesn’t work. Now he’s shaking off arguably the best catcher in the world. I don’t think the Phillies got Realmuto so that guys like VV can shake him off.

            Let the Velasquez experiment end now, not one more start. He’s had too many one more starts. If we’re going to continue to be patient in allowing VV to grow up, let that patience be practiced at Lehigh Valley

        2. I haven’t given up on VV – pitchers can take an annoyingly long time to find their spot on the roster and their groove. With many it takes years. I am at least encouraged that he still has good velocity. I think he also needs to develop another pitch, like a cutter or splitter. If that doesn’t work a demotion or a move to the BP might.

          1. Romus/Catch – he is near is final chance to prove he is a MLB starter with the Phillies imo. He is getting a longer leash thAn Pivetta which is surprising to me. I guess they value Pivetta more? By trying to get him right for the rotation?

            VV has the talent but if he can’t put it together, such a waste. To me, he is down to his last 2 starts before being sent down, that maybe generous. My plan – inform VV he is on a 1 or 2 start perf eval. He MUST follow JT’s game plan during the game or be sent down. If VV doesn’t like it, he should’ve not put himself in this situation.

            SP is starting to look like a bigger need than the pen right now

            1. Tac3……perhaps Gabe should be innovative…..when VV is due to pitch….have an ‘opener’ start for the first two innings…like Cash did last year in Tampa.
              At least he comes in the third, hopefully if the opener is successful, facing the bottom of the order.

          2. While true its rare that they find it with the club their on. I doubt Arietta becomes the Cy Young pitcher he became with the Cubs had he stayed with the Orioles.

            The frustration levels were over the cliff at that point. I would send VV to the BP now and next man up. 5-6 Starts from Irvin or DLS to see if they can get it done.

  20. Hoskins says to “pick your poison”: Carpenter, Molina, DeJong. Oh, wait. He meant the Phillies lineup. And Ozuna and Goldschmidt didn’t even get one. Probably tonight.

  21. Time to move VV to the bullpen
    lots of failed starters became high end relievers
    we’ve seen enough
    he just cant go more than 4-5 innings
    nothing suggests this is going to improve other than wishful thinking
    enough already
    bullpen needs help anyway

    1. sr – The season is 20% over now, and we’re still in first place. We lost last night, but so did the Braves, Mets and Nat’s. As I said, we’re in first place, but it’s not a comfortable first place. Changes need to be made on the pitching side of the roster. In the next week, both Velasquez and Pivetta (AAA) will get another start. Depending on how things go, Velasquez could find himself in the bullpen, or back at Lehigh. Let’s chalk up Garcia’s first appearance to jitters. On the other hand, I feel that Nicasio has got to go. I’ve been wrong before (Adam Morgan), but if Velasquez goes to the pen, Nicasio is the odd man out.

      1. What you said, Wawa. If this lineup as it’s currently constituted doesn’t score runs, we’re screwed. It’s the unpredictable pitching that needs to be stabilized, both rotation and in so doing, bullpen. I agree with Jim P that Kimbrel should not be a consideration.

      2. Wawa so winning a five team division is what we get for all the moves we made. Wow, This team with this pitching is not a good team period

        1. rocco – I’m not saying that’s the goal. I’m saying that it’s not the time to panic … yet.

  22. If it were me, I’d try to trade Williams and Velasquez for Minor or a pitcher like him. It would cost a minor league prospect also. I would them sign Parra as my bench OF and pinch hitter. We still need to upgrade our pitching and I’m not sure Vinnie has the control to be a good reliever either. Pivetta May be a better option as a pen arm.

    1. I like the Parra idea….he is having a bad start now….but that could be because he isn’t challenge.
      Put him on a team in a race and things could change.
      I mean the 2019 Giants!
      Probably had to drag himself out to the field.

      1. For those who are into RunDiff +/- (I am) here is the current standings link

        https://www.mlb.com/standings

        If you’re thinking about poaching players early then you need to concentrate on those who are really out of the race.

        We’re catching a break right now with Rendon and Soto out of the Nats LU. Idon’t think the Mets have teh staying power I think it will be the Braves and Nats hot on our tails down the stretch.

    2. The problem there is Texas is playing pretty good ball right now and holds a +17 Run Differential. They could steal a WC. They won’t catch the Astro’s but the Mariners are sure to fade with their pitching.

      Maybe things change at the deadline but I highly doubt the Rangers move on Minor before then.

      1. The AL is all about Boston, NYY, Tampa, either Minnesota or Cleveland, and Houston. The Rangers will not be relevant come mid-June. So no, I think the Rangers would be smart to entertain a haul for Minor, who I believe is around 30 and should not be considered a long term asset for them.

        1. And there in lies the Problem the Phillies are not in the position to give the Rangers a so called haul for a 30 y/o pitcher who can become a FA after next season and has a history of shoulder issues.

          Our prospect position of strength is catcher right now if you make a deal its from there and absorbing a bad contract in Choo possibly.

          I mean all you have to do is look at what they gave us for Hamels who was under a really nice extension. You’re not going to give them more than that.

    3. If we are fed up with Williams and VV, what makes you think we can pawn them off to another team for any sort of value? At this point, those guys that we are fed up with (take your pick) have limited value. Sure, maybe some team can look at them as reclamation projects, but nobody is giving anything significant for that. At this point, those guys are throw-ins to any deal. So if you want Minor, it’s going to cost a primo prospect and I think it starts with Spencer Howard and not Adonis Medina.

      1. Can understand the Velasquez frustrations….but Williams does not get the opportunities for regular ABs for show -and- tell.
        Look at his ISO in his 800 plus MLB PAs…..170 plus.
        He has the potential to be a quality corner when given the chance for full time duties.

        1. Romus i think he is a 20 plus hr and 250 hitter the obp i think is the key for him.

        2. Agree, Romus. Williams despite his imperfections hasn’t been given a real shot as an everyday player. Not a middle of the order bat, certainly. But still there’s enough upside to his skill set that warrants a longer look. And yet they proceeded to staff the outfield otherwise. I get that people think they should move on from him, but only because he hasn’t gotten the requisite time to prove anything, one way or another. He had a nice year in ’17. Not great but a base of production to build on. Again, another case of ‘what is the front office thinking?’ regarding a young player with apparent talent who they studder to commit to.

          1. roc/8mark……I think Williams wants out anyway.
            Saw a report from one of these beat guys…Jim Salisbury/Matt Gelb or Corey Seidman…. him and Gabe had a breakfast meeting a few weeks ago.
            Do not need to be a mind reader to know what would be discussed.
            If he is moved….I am sure Klentak will get appropriate value in return.

      2. Okay, hear me out. How about we package Odubel and Velasquez, 2 players who Texas GM Jon Daniels has coveted in the past (though I understand they have lost some luster since) along with Medina, Irvin and yes, Marchan (ouch!) IMO, we can bite the bullet in CF with Cutch and give Nicky Dubs a fresh start as LF. How much of an improvement is Doobie over Williams going forward, really? The latter needs playing time EVERY DAY! Herrera is so streaky with other warts. We already have a streaky bat in Harper. I’ve been on board with giving Odubel this year BUT NOW may be an opportunity to get a difference maker in Minor. What say ye?

        1. Plus we can take Choo’s contract off the Rangers as well, as has been suggested. And yes they reportedly do want to shed extraneous salary.

        2. Well Minor, who turns 32 in Dec and a FA after 2020…will not be looking at a huge pay out LTC….he will be in the Keuchel situation, but going into his age33 season in 2021…with a history of shoulder issues.
          The Rangers would probably be foolish to turn down Doobie, ViVe and maybe another two tier minor league arm for Minor.
          He cannot be in their long range plans after next year..

        3. I like to dip my toes in the trade speculation pool every now and again but to answer your question. Nicky Dubs needs to be moved and given a fresh start. I don’t expect much in return for him.

          VV needs to go to the pen pronto.

          Irvin or DLS needs to be given the next 5-6 starts in the VV spot to see what they can do.

          We shouldn’t get tunnel vision on a starting pitcher just yet. Cutch as much as I love him really can’t play CF everyday.

          1. No, giving them Hoskins would be too much. I can’t possibly imagine who you would offer when at least a dozen other teams will be in the running for him, IF he’s available. And you know what you can do with your condescending comments….

            ….no offense.

  23. Saw the Phils play S.L. in Jupiter during spring training. Dakota Hudson totally stymied them albeit he faced the traveling spring training group. He pitches tonight.

    If the kid who beat Nola last year (can’t remember his name) goes tomorrow, we’re looking at a possible sweep unless the bats catch fire.

  25. Romus hit the nail on the head. If ever there was a starting pitcher who was in need of an “opener”, it is Vincent Velasquez. I’d open each of his starts with a LHRP. Could be Adam Morgan. Could be Jose Alvaraz. Could be Austin Davis. Bring Velasquez into the game in the third inning. Let him take the team through the 7th inning.
    Give it a shot. What does Gabe have to lose?

    1. Hinkie – I’m still not, and probably never will be, an advocate of the piggy back game. Having said that, I’d wait a week. Give Velasquez, and Pivetta, one more start each, and then decide. In a weeks time, this sleeping giant of an offense could come alive, and it won’t matter anymore.

    2. Is anyone in the NL doing this? I get how you can dabble with the opener in the AL DH and all not sure how it will play out when pitchers need to hit.

      Agree nothing to lose but you have 2 starters in AAA who have performed well enough to be given a shot at this point in the season.

      1. DMAR…an opener does not hit normally….he only pitches for the first or second inning….unless his team builds a big lead and bats thru the lineup., in the first or second inning.

        1. You didn’t answer my question though which is any team in the NL experimenting with this? I honestly don’t know the answer but am trying to understand if it makes sense.

          Why not just move VV to the pen and let him work like a long man or a 2-3 inning bridge to the 8th or 9th.

          1. DMAR…no team in the NL has tried the ‘opener’ this year…..in June 2018, Dodgers used Scott Alexander as an opener due to injuries in their starting rotation. The Twins, Athletics, and Rangers also employed openers in the last month of the 2018 season. In the nine games in which the As used the opener strategy in Sept (with Liam Hendriks serving as opener in eight of those games), they posted a win-loss record of 4–5 and a 1.86 ERA. The Athletics also chose to use Hendriks as the opener in the 2018 American League Wild Card Game. In the 2018 NLC Series, the Brewers used starter Wade Miley as an opener in Game 5. He pitched to only one batter before being replaced, becoming just the second pitcher in MLB playoff history to start a game and face only one batter.
            But sometimes it could be a useful tactic.

            1. Of coursed the Rays and Cash used it extensively last year …their team ERA decreased after beginning to use the strategy. The Rays’ openers recorded a 3.97 ERA in a combined 93 innings pitched, which bested the league average ERA of 4.15. During the summer, the Rays also experimented with an opener in their Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.
              So it may be a philosophy that may catch on…..like the defensive shift! “)

            4. DMAR…missed that….maybe Greg Counsel is taking a page out of Kevin Cash’ book.

  26. How do you tell the difference between V1again and V4again?………………….by innings pitched per start!😉

  27. With Thursday being an off day, the Phillies could skip Velasquez next start, and use him in the bullpen. An audition of sorts, but if he does well, we could promote Pivetta and DFA Nicasio. Just a thought.

    2. As much as we would all like to see VV in the bullpen, it likely won’t happen during the season. Remember when Adam Morgan stunk as a starter in 2016? He started 21 out of 23 appearances. The following season, he was a full time reliever.

  28. Vinny’s Longevity.
    Games starting…6 in 2019:
    May 6 -4 innings…….98 PC
    Apr 30 –3.2 innings…99
    Apr 24 –5 innings……97
    Apr 19-5.2………………97
    Apr 14 –6……………….81 (Marlins)
    Apr 5 –5………………..80
    2018:
    Sep 25 – 3.2 innings…..67 PC
    Sep 20- 3.2……………..57
    Sep 15- 2………………46
    Sep 9- 4………………….73

  29. Parra is now a free agent. Rough year so far but upgrade over what we currently have? Anybody interested?

    1. Murray mentioned it earlier today:

      Murray May 7, 2019 at 8:37 AM
      If it were me, I’d try to trade Williams and Velasquez for Minor or a pitcher like him. It would cost a minor league prospect also. I would them sign Parra as my bench OF and pinch hitter. We still need to upgrade our pitching and I’m not sure Vinnie has the control to be a good reliever either. Pivetta May be a better option as a pen arm.

  30. I need to say this sorry, but Kimbrel and keuchel are really stupid. Do they think baseball will stop, cause of them. sorry guys, the game will go on with or without you. I just cant believe the ignorance of those two.

    1. rocco….they will be signed by the weekend of June 8th/9th..
      The draft is June 3, 4 and 5….and once completed the team that signs them does not have to forfeit their 2nd , or in the Phillies case, their 2nd and 3rd round draft choices….plus also the penalty of losing international monies.

      1. Romus imo and can be wrong Waiting until June 5 then it will take at least 3 weeks or more to get ready,y that is sometime in july. And with out spring training and if they rush to get ready, could be a injury waiting to happen. Unless these guys do a prove me contract, i wouldnt touch them.

        1. rocco…I really do not think they are sitting on their couches eating potato chips and chugging ales down. They know how to prep for ‘spring training’ by now.
          Might take them 10 days to two weeks to get them ready with some rehab assignments to follow.

          1. Not like Marty Bystrom in 1981 during strike. Pumping gas and eating donuts

  31. Wow, I’m watching the Cardinals version of VV, Dakota Hudson. The dude is seriously wild, it’s a ball out of his hand.

  33. I just called the Phillies I told them they made a mistake on there stats. How can the worst second basemen in phillies history, be hitting 294 with a 356 obp. must be a mistake. they havent got back to me.

    1. Keep me posted on when they get back to you. I’m excited to hear about when they explain the many other aspects of baseball to you; it’s gonna blow your mind!

      1. dan k not to be rude like you, i forgot more than you will ever know

        1. I’m sorry you took it as rude, and I’m also sorry you think anyone here thinks Cesar is “the worst second basemen in phillies history”.

          As for your comment towards me,

          1) Doubtful. As time goes on, we not only have more knowledge as a species, but easier access to it. The next generation will always have more information than the previous one. So unless you’re predicting I die young or something, that’s unlikely.

          2) Forgetting information is just as useful as never having learned for discussion purposes, so.

          3) Yes, I’m aware it’s a common phrase. It also is a silly one.

  34. Guys, I don’t mean to be rude or offended, but the packages you want to offer for Mike Minor, a 32 year old with a track record of injuries and no sustained success, is ridiculous. Think about if we were Texas Rangers fans and not Phillies. We would be dying to trade a guy like this whose value is at an all time high and hope some team offers us a package before he ends up on the IL. Come on, were smarter than this. I would give them Cole Irvin and Logan O’Hoppe or something like that. Nothing more. And they would never do that. But we need to be looking into restocking the system at this point; not trading what little we have for a guy whos best season was 6 years ago and even that was a measly13-9

    1. You think ViVe and Doobie are an over-payment for Mike Minor?
      Whoa.
      That would be the most I’d offer.
      When you have a chance now to grab the whole thing in October….you take the chance now.

      1. i will drive them to airport , romus with your car. I dont have a license or car

    2. I would not even consider this trade. I do not want Minor. We have equal assets in house.

      1. Denny….you do realize Minor ….at this very moment in time.. he is one of the leading candidates for the Cy Young!
        –First in WAR in MLB
        —9th in ERA…6th in adjusted ERA
        —-First in Base Out Runs Saved
        —–2nd Base Out Wins Saved
        The only thin he lacks is wins…because of their team.,,,but 3rd in Adjusted Wins.
        His metrics so far are outstanding.

        And you would not give up ‘Vinny 4.2’ and the Doobie-meter!
        As for Doobie…..approx 2400 total MLB PAs…..last take his last 1200 or so PAs (2 plus years)
        Slash……266/315/432
        bWAR…1,6
        OPS=96…(100 is league average).
        His is on that slippery slope…his age/contract and experience gives him value.

  35. I think this organization needs to overhaul its coaching and player development before all else. Who has gotten better as they have gotten older in this organization? Almost nobody. You can say Hoskins but that’s about it. The organization is filled with guys who at one point looked like potential top prospects but are now struggling at their level. Nobody has developed into a blue chipper. I know not all prospects pan out, but SOME should. If I am the Cardinals ro a team with good player development, I am just counting the seconds til the team sours on Pivetta enough to make him available in a trade. You can even make the same argument as VV. Yes it is partially on the players to take the next step, but good coaching should help them as well.

    1. Hoskins, Kingery looking likely, Cesar, Nola, Franco, Neris, Morgan, Eickhoff.

      That’s just the MLB team. We have minor leaguers progressing every year. Not always the ones we hope, but we wouldn’t have been able to trade for Segura or JTR with pure lottery tickets.

  36. Cesar Hernandez MLB rank among 2B

    Season: .294/.355/.421

    Last 7 games: .429/.458/.571

    Last 15 games: .346/.386/.442

    Last 30 games: .300/.363/.427

    Avg: 7th
    OBP: 7th
    Runs: 8th
    Hits: 7th
    2B: 4th
    BB: 6th

    Think a 10 year 200m deal is in line.

    1. Would be great if one of the other 29 teams in the league give him that deal. I would be very happy for Cesar…

    2. These numbers looks good. For my 2 cents, and For the record, im ready to put Kingery in there everyday if he continues his development preonjury. If he doesn’t pull a hammy, i believe he would’ve taken over the 2B job. I’d still keep Cesar for the bench for the time being.
      Cesar is a good role player, but I’m putting my money on Kingery, looks like he was ramping up to expectations. Also the other factor in this, is Kingery a contract, they need to get him moving or his contract will be dead money.

    2. I do not think David Montgomery was particularly good at building a team or keeping it good once he built it. However, by all accounts he was a very fine man, loyal to the team and his friends and he really cared about the organization and the fans. I never heard anyone say a bad thing about him as a person and may he rest in peace.

  38. I am done talking about Cesar on here – it’s like talking about religion or politics. People believe what they believe, are entrenched in their positions, and they are not changing their minds in any way no matter what you say and, oh yeah, he no longer has anything to do with the minor leagues system. So, why bother talking about it?

    1. Open discussion.
      And literally people were saying he’s just not that good and thatS with less than a month of baseball played. He’s hit .300 over his last 30 games, how many Phillies in the line up can say that? Not sure how it’s even a valid view that he isn’t good or isn’t better than average. He’s numbers say otherwise.

      1. Dead horse. He won’t be here next season. What’s the point of going on and getting angry about it?

        1. 8mark….he is not a FA until 2021……so unless the Phillies trade him, then the only other option is DFA/release.
          But you may be correct, he probably will get moved on if they want Kingery to step in at second base.

        2. Yeah, folks can talk about it until they are blue in the face, but if anyone in one camp thinks they are going to change the minds of folks in the other camp – experience says that won’t happen. So feel free to vent, but don’t think you’ll change anyone’s mind on here one way or another on Cesar – trust me, I’ve tried and you won’t.

      2. EricD…I do not think people are ‘Cesar haters’…even though he can be frustrating with some of his bone head base-path and fielding decisions….its just for me…he turns 29 in two weeks.
        I do not think the Phillies are thinking long term at second base with him..which is his only defensive position he can play.
        So what is the solution?

        1. I don’t think he’s the long term solution at all however if he ends the year hitting close to .300 with an OBP of somewhere around his career average, I don’t think you see the Phillies letting him walk either.

          1. Eric – We’ll never know for sure, but I think that Cesar was close to being traded two years ago. According to reports Klentak was asking for a starting pitcher. If that’s true, he over-valued Cesar. He probably could have gotten a low level prospect with a high upside, or a boatload of International money from a team like the Orioles. We were still in rebuild mode back then, and nobody knew much about Kingery (we still don’t), so we can’t blame Klentak for trying to upgrade the major league roster. It’s always been a mystery to me that Cesar never tried to improve his play at SS, 3B, or the OF.
            I never thought that Cesar was a bad player, despite the occasional bonehead play. He’s a good player on a rebuilding team, a nice guy, and has shown to have clubhouse value. I’m positive that if the Phillies did not offer him a contract next winter, he would be snapped up by another team in a heartbeat.

            1. Cesar was tried in CF, SS and 3rd basein 2013/14 and ’15…..did not respond adequately enough defensively.
              He is a second basemen thru and thru.

          2. The problem here is that if Cesar finishes with those numbers, he’s probably going to get $10M+ in his last year of arbitration. So now you will have the starter Cesar making $10M+ and the higher ceiling Kingery making 1.75M. So what do you do?

        2. Maybe Cesar was down due to being dropped to 7th in lineup and all the Kingrey talk.

  39. RIP to Montgomery. Very thankful to his contributions to this team. He helped put a lot smiles on this phans face, to me he had a very large part in the “Golden era”. I’m thankful to his loyalty, and the good or bad that came with it.

    Looks like the baseball gods will have to deal with another Phillies lifer chiming in their ears for the calls&bounces to go the Phillies way!
    I may even feel sorry for them when Bowa someday joins that herd.

    1. Can echo those same sentiments.
      Ran into David , 6/7 years ago before the illness, in the Hall of Fame…though he was busy and was running to somewhere, had the time to say hello and how are you.

    1. I have seen him twice on tv, not impressed at all. very average pitcher

  42. The Bulldog is back and better than ever! What a boost to the ball club if he can give us 6/7 innings and hold the opposition to 3 or 4 runs, backed by this lineup.

    1. 8mark, not going to toot my horn, but I was calling for many to not forget about him/overlook him. Stating we didn’t need to sign Kuechel to an overpriced deal. Kudos to klentak for seeing this. The next question is, the team stronger with Pivetta in the pen, and adding a SP, or is

      Nola,Arrietta, Efflin, Pivetta, Eickhoff strong enough with VV to the pen in combo with the offense?

      Will shall see.

      1. Or … trading VV and Williams as part of a SP package … and going with what they have at the mlb club and minors for the bullpen

      2. Tac3…you are correct.
        You kept the Eickhoff allure alive while he was making his way back.
        Hope he can keep this up thru the season.

      3. i Know you were on him. I just didnt think he going to pitch like he has, he has been really good

        1. I think his curve is nasty, and now add in his slider. He has the players eyeballs spinning. That was a good lineup he did his too. He is the 4th starter right now. He’ll be better than he was in 2016, he’s improved since then.
          A big boost to the rotation with Pivetta needing to get right

          Your boy Cesar is making a case to keep Kingery on the bench. It’s crazy, how comeptivr these positions are right now.

  43. We need to start paying more attention to Bailey Falter – he’s been very good this year and last. A rising prospect to be sure.

  44. Eickhoff was terrific. Cesar was as well. Great series win on road vs a quality team. RIP Monty, a classy gentleman who loved his team and his City, and above all else was a really good man.

  45. Moffo’s Uncle Caesar has always been a very good hitter. He’s even hit with power over the past few years. Sure, he makes some boneheaded plays in the field and on the base paths but he’s worth the money they give him.

    Next year, he’ll probably make just under 10M. The Phillies are in a good position. They have a super sub, Kingery, who plays multiple positions and a good hitter in Hernandez. Roc has stuck with him and he’s right.

    Eickoff has been one of my favorite players since he worked his way up from AAA. If he can stay healthy, he could be a number 3 easily. He’s a real bulldog who puts it out there every game he pitches. And to boot, he can bunt.

    1. For hitters, if you have a good season, you make close to double your previous year’s salary in arbitration after arbitration 1. So if Cesar finishes with around 700 OPS (similar to what he did last season), he’ll get about $10M. If he’s closer to 800 OPS and above, he’ll probably get $12-13M.

    2. It’s never really been in question whether Cesar was a good hitter or if he was worth the money. It’s always just come down to those who think Kingery is better and those who think he isn’t.

      If you believe Kingery is better (or will be relatively soon), it doesn’t make sense to keep Cesar. A super sub is still a sub (and I don’t think Scotty benefits in any way from filling that role; he’s not really a SS or CF, and his arm is suspect at the corners). It’d be like starting Cutch over Harper because Cutch is good and Harper can play multiple positions (to a lesser degree). You put the best player in the starting line up.

      As for other considerations, if you expect Kingery can give you similar or better performance to Cesar, then moving on from Cesar makes fiscal sense as well. 10M isn’t a lot in baseball terms, but you could still save that money with Kingery and re-invest it somewhere else. 10M gets you a pretty good reliever, a back-end SP, or a good bench piece. If Cesar could play any position other than 2B, I’m pretty sure no one would want him gone. But that’s how it goes; we have two 2B only types, and there’s only room for one of those.

      All that said, Catch was right on the money earlier. There’s two clearly defined camps when it comes to Cesar and Scotty. People have chosen their side and won’t be swayed, it seems.

      1. There’s a very good chance that, for this year at least, it won’t end up being a Cesar versus Scotty battle at all. Slowly, Mikael Franco has drifted back to his historical norms. Fangraphs has him listed as a 0 WAR player this year and Baseball Reference has him listed as a -0.1 WAR (essentially the same score) – in sum, the stats say he’s been a AAA player this year. He’ll still play a bunch, but I suspect that if Kingery continues to hit, he’ll play a lot more a third than he will at second. And if he plays anywhere close to the way he did before he got injured, I’d bet money he moves into a starting role at third, not at second, where, whether you like it or not, Cesar is producing at a first division regular pace.

        1. Catch – I agree, to an extent. Kingery could slide over to third base for a couple of games a week, and if Franco is running hot and Hoskins happens to run into a slump, Franco can give Hoskins a day off. I’m real curious as to how the Phillies employ the DH in the next three games. KC will trot out three RH pitchers over the weekend, so I’m hoping that Williams gets a couple of games (1 in LF, and 1 as DH).
          With the Phillies having a nice cushion in the standings, there’s no rush to bring Kingery back. But how close he is to returning is a matter for debate. I wish that the Phillies would be more honest in their injury reports.
          After the three games in KC, the schedule gets brutal for the rest of the month. If we sweep the Royals, we can probably afford to go .500 the rest of the month.

  46. Highest WAR on the Phillies could be Eickhoff now.
    Baseball Reference has not updated today’s stats yet, but Eickhoff was at 1.2WAR yesterday, while the highest was Zach Eflin at 1.5, followed by Rhys at 1.4,

    1. Eickhoff just plowed through a good Cards lineup on the road. He’ll easily be 1.5, if not 1.7. That was legit.

      1. I haven’t done the actual calculations for it yet, but a cursory look at his stats on bRef would mean .4 bWAR per start assuming 1 run in 4+ innings. So 8 IP, 0 R would probably net about .9 WAR.

        I’d have to check their newest calculations of WAR to be sure, but I suspect he’s approaching 2-2.1 bWAR after today.

        1. I’m still a little concerned about Eick’s lack of a change up. Before today’s game lefties were hitting .316/.435/.474 off of him

      2. And he was allowed to pitch past 86 pitches and even hit in the late innings. Appears Gabe is starting to understand how to stay out of the way

  47. Since we’re approaching the quarter way mark of the season, thought it’d be fun to check in on the surface level performance of the Phils. We’re all aware that we’re in first in the division.

    We’re also first in runs scored (expected by most) and first in runs allowed (not so much). It’s also not particularly close.

    Team RS RA
    PHI 188 157
    ATL 177 175
    NYM 163 189
    WSH 165 188
    MIA 99 174

    Who would have guessed all three non-Miami teams would have been closer to us in runs scored than runs allowed? That’s gotta be a gut check considering they were all counting on their pitching staffs to make up the difference.

    1. And for those wondering; yes, the Marlins are the only team that hasn’t yet scored over 100 total runs. The second fewest is Detroit with 111, and then Cleveland with 119.

  48. Talk down in DC…Nats manager may be already on the hot seat…first the pitching coach was let go, now the manager may be next..

      1. HaHa. I like to annoy just a tad bit. I dunno why I’m so fond of Hernandez, maybe because he’s been around for the bad years and I want to see him see/enjoy the successful years as well, I dunno. And don’t get me wrong, I get the arguments people make against him/for Kingery over him. I just tend to believe that right now, Cesar is the everyday guy and should be.
        Also before the week or so this year, what I’ve seen outta Kingery just looked bad to me.

  50. Anyone take notice…..Eickhoff and Fiers…two soft tossers at 90 and below, with two gems.

    1. In this brave new baseball world of home runs, strike outs and walks, is it now possible that as the game continues to evolve at an exponentially increasing rate, could lower velocity, finesse pitchers become more effective than fire ballers? Eickhoff will certainly be scouted as time goes on but keeping hitters off balance with his type of repertoire may keep him as a – dare I say it – top of the rotation arm. Bottom line – this guy knows what the hell he’s doing out there. Pivetta and Velasquez should be taking notes. Please!

      1. There you may have it.
        TTO….the three true outcomes…..play into the soft tosser’s hands.
        Hitters want more lift for the HR……so the hi-velo FB guys will need to pinpoint their FBs at the letters to get the batters to swing and miss or pop-up since they are swing with more lift and loft angles.
        The other angle to it…the majority of relievers now are 95 plus velo guys….so hitter’s eyes are more in tuned to the hi velo FBs since they see them more often.

      2. I think you are on to something 8Mark….that said I think the margin of error is very slim for the soft tosser. We’ll have to see how many gems to clunkers they can produce throughout 30 starts.

        1. The truest TTO on the Phillies is Bryce Harper @ 50.9%
          He barely edges out Rhys @ 49.7%.
          Talk about similar hitting results and I guess approaches.

    2. You know that even with no-hitter, Mike Fiers is -0.1 WAR. He’s not a good pitcher.

          1. You can take any middling starting pitcher who has hung around, and you’ll be shocked at how much they earned:

            Jason Vargas (14 years, 15.2 WAR, $63M)
            Jeremy Hellickson (10 years, 12.1 WAR, $34M)
            Trevor Cahill (11 years, 11.6 WAR, $46M)

            and check out this guy we will be facing on Friday:

            Homer Bailey (13 years, 4.2 WAR(not a typo), $86M (also not a typo)

  51. 8mark I said it a lot. I like velo. but every once in a while you get a guy who can win with less velo. Right Handers who win with 90 velo are rare. But lets remember once thing this guy hasnt done it for a season. We are making it sound like three games in and he is a hall of famer,

    1. rocco…exactly….just like Cesar.
      Just because over his last 26 games, he is hitting .357 (35 for 98) with eight doubles, three homers and 10 RBIs to raise his average to .305 is he ready for the Hall of Fame.
      His value is high….trade him now for international money. 🙂

  52. The Phillies are off tomorrow. For the first 20% of the season, the Phils went 17-15, and were in first place. Since then they’ve widened the gap in the NL East by winning 4 straight games. The off day tomorrow, and the 3 games against KC are significant because the Phillies will be playing contenders (Brewers, Rockies, Cubs and Brewers again) before they get another day off.
    I see the name of Jasson Dominguez (OF) at or near the top of several International Prospect lists. Has anyone got any information on him?

  53. As a vocal proponent of kingery over Caesar, have to admit, CH is making a big impact offensively right now
    Hope he can ride a long hot streak.
    As for pitching, our biggest needs seem to be innings from the number 5 starter and bullpen depth of relievers we can trust.
    Leaving aside trades which aren’t really an option for another month or so, I really think the best utilization of intraorganization resources is
    VV to the pen
    Pivetta recalled or Santos or Irvin tried out at the number 5 spot
    Our top 4 starters look pretty solid right now even if they don’t dazzle the eye with pure stuff.
    We’re clearly the most balanced team in the division.

  54. Surprised we haven’t heard anything on Altherr by now. He was DFA’d last weekend.

    1. DMAR…Hinkie posted this on the draft thread…..yeah , in the words of Howard Eskin…this guy is clueless if he thinks Johnny A reaches for a HS arm.

      1. I’m sorry I missed that post….but not for nothing I’m not opposed to going HS arm in that spot.

      2. Lefty Zach Thompson is who I expect the Phillies to draft at 1.14. For the mock draft – Alex Manoah is the better pick vs Matthew Allan.

  56. In honor of Thirsty Thursday does anyone remember when Seth Beer was all the rage? Well the Astros took him last year 28th overall and thus far he has not disappointed. In 428 pro PA’s he’s slashing 311/398/918

    Now at 22 he’s still in Hi A but I imagine he’ll be making the move to their AA squad this year. He’s still defensively challenged. It seems they are trying him at 1B and LF but he hasn’t been great at either.

    Michael Brantley if you remember was a player we kicked around signing. The Astros scooped him up for a mere 2/$32 well he’s only slashing 340/386/988 with 9 dingers. Maybe the value sign of 2019.

    The Dodgers have me in envy at the moment. I stayed up last night to watch Kershaw against the Bravo’s and wow Verdugo can hit 344/386/944 7 BB’s to just 10Ks. No wonder they didn’t make a serious run for BH.

    And my last around the league note the D-Backs are 21-16. Robbie Ray K’d 11 last night and a kid I actually saw play when I was coaching my sons team was Kennedy Kendrick’s own Christian Walker has finally found a home. He hit the furthest balls I ever saw a HSer hit in game. The Norristown field we played them on didn’t have a fence. We used to play our CF at about 400 FT. Didn’t matter (pre BB CORE) he hit a ball that got over his head so fast we didn’t bother going after it. If he had 10 AB’s against us he hit 5 HRs and we walked him the other 5.

    1. Robbie Ray is the lefty i’d like to see if Klentak can trade for…..right age, controlled, a little wild but great stuff.

      1. If I could have a redo I would replace McPhail with Colletti and Mk with Hazen

    2. Yeah I didn’t realize that Brantley signed for so little compared to Cutch. Although I love Cutch as a person, his skill set has obviously diminished. Would have loved Brantley over him . . . maybe that’s just hindsight tho. Wasn’t the biggest fan of the Cutch signing.

      1. It wasn’t that much different, it was just an extra year and a small difference – $1 million – in AAV. But just because Brantley has been great so far doesn’t mean McCutchen is a disappointment. He’s done very well.

      2. Michael Brantley had serious injury issues in 2016 and 2017. The Astros took a chance on him. If he got hurt again, I don’t think anybody would have been shocked.

    3. yes, Walker has stopped hitting the last couple weeks but still has good numbers.

      Beer doing great but Astros have Yordan Alvarez (currently 391-14-40) ahead of him as 1b/of in AAA, who Astros will have to call up at some point.

      also, 2 former Phils finding the fountain of youth- Hunter Pence and Howie Kendrick both batting cleanup tonight, hitting homers #6, well over .300 with 20 plus rbis each.

  57. Happy 70th birthday to the Piano Man, my favorite artist growing up. Gonna see him at CBP in 2 weeks.

    2. If you haven’t seen him there before, it’s an amazing show. One of the top 2 or 3 I’ve seen anywhere. And CBP is a perfect venue for this. I would go too but will be away during that time.

      1. Saw him 2 yrs ago at the ball park. About a dozen times at the old Spectrum/Wells Fargo (or whatever it was called then). He doesn’t jump around like he once did but the energy from the audience is worth the price of admission.

          1. I think the word is musical “genius” when you mention McCartney (or Beatles w/George Martin) and Joel, Elton….whether you like their stuff or not.

  58. I can’t ever remember a Cardinals team throwing the ball around like the last few games. Are they that bad, or was it just a bad series?

    1. It was a bad series. Their infield D is usually pretty solid. The funny thing is that their OF has 2 of the worst fielding OFs out there: Ozuna and Martinez.

  59. Have seen two comps on Mickey Mo. in the past…David Dahl and Christian Yelich.
    Checked their AA metrics at the same age .

    David Dahl.-……..302 PAs…..278/.304/.417….ISO-.139….K-24%….BB-4%
    Christian Yelich…..222 PAs…280/365/518……ISO-.238….K-23%….BB-12%

    I will be interested in seeing how Mickey lines up with either of them this season.

    1. I am much less worried about his average or power than I am about his plate discipline combined with a struggling hit tool. Right this moment, his stats do not project well at higher levels. He is going to have to get much better at some critically important things.

      1. Yeah….the hi 20s K rate and below 4% BB rate indicate a strong need for adjustments to be made. Hopefully the work he puts in will pay dividends in those regards.

    2. Yelich comp? What when Yelich was in little league? So disappointing that we had the first overall pick and draft someone who more than likely never sniffs the MLB roster.

  60. First time in 8/9 years Phillies are not expected to sign a Latin international kid from the MLB Top 30 rankings.
    Very Baltimore Oriolish.
    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=int

    As usual Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers are signing their fair share….while even the Padres are jumping into that same fray this year.

      1. Maybe just a blip on the radar for this one year.
        OFer Yhoswar Garcia I would have thought would be somewhere in their top 30….but did not see him listed.

    2. I’m not really sure how much it matter, to be honest. Who’s on the come from the current crop of LA kids? Until the organization re-establishes itself in talent evaluation and/or (especially IMO) player development, what’s the point? Seriously, had we drafted Harper, Trout or signed other top tier international players, how good would they be now?

      (That’s a rhetorical question)

      1. 8mark…can understand that since when you look at it……over the last 8 years….Tocci, Encarnacion, Grullon, Pujols, Ortiz, Bray Gonzalez, Gamboa, Brito…not many sure things.
        Grullon has come on of late…and Luis Garcia and Francisco Morales still seem to be progressing.
        But not a lot of success with the top dollar singings.
        But you still need that pipeline flowing….even if for future trade chip value.
        Now, Acuna, Robles and Albies were not large bonus guys….Soto was a little over a million…they were all under $300K

        1. Romus i was trying to stay positive My sixers play tonight. and then you show me, who bad the picks we signed, in latin market. i am now depressed

          2. If it is any consolation….take the Yankees……every year for the last 8/9 years they would sign at least 4 or 5 top dollar guys……they have Andujar, Sanchez and Severino to show for it…and all three have their own issues they are dealing with now at the MLB level.
            Gleyber Torres was a Cub signing they got in the trade for Chapman..

    1. What was bothering him? I remember you saying they were just resting him about a week ago.

          1. Well, it’s a shoulder – which could mean nothing but shoulder issues are the scariest for a pitcher. Guys with big shoulder issues simply disappear like ghosts. Remember Jon Pettibone? And there are many like him.

  63. A for-fun exercise that I did, was to come up with my top 10 of players the Phillies have drafted or signed internationally, since the founding of PhuturePhillies.com. My rules for the exercise are that it can’t include players acquired from other organizations and I tried to rank the players based on their overall body of work to date in conjunction with the careers I anticipate them having (for younger players).

    10. Mikael Franco
    9. Ken Giles
    8. Jonathon Villar
    7. Travis D’Arnaud
    6. Cesar Hernandez
    5. Jonathan Villar
    4. JA Happ
    3. Carlos Carrasco
    2. Rhys Hoskins
    1. Aaron Nola

    What obviously jumps out is the clear lack of star power that Phillies have been able to accrue organically, which is a bit depressing. But running through all the top 30’s of this site is also a stark reminder how many prospects never even get a taste of the show.

      1. Oops. Keep Villar at 5. Insert JP, Worley, or Diekman at 10 and bump everyone up a spot.

            1. Galvis absolutely. . . D’arnaud wound be off my list completely. He did nothing but help teams acquire other players.
              Was Don Brown prior to phuturePhillies?

    2. I guess you’re not high on Kingery. Trevor May’s been a good bullpen piece for the Twins. Biddle was pretty dominant last year. Morgan’s making a late run at this. JP’s lighting up AAA, so we’ll have to see if he’s turned the corner. And, obviously, a lot of the guys from 2014 or later are still working their way up.

      But yeah, prospects mostly don’t pan out.

      1. I actually had Bastardo on the list for a minute. May has potential, but has been injured and only experienced limited success. I mostly targeted guys that have “proven it” to some degree at the big league level, which is why I left Kingery and JP off.

    3. If you go by WAR, here’s just drafted players (not all were signed)

      JA Happ – 2004 – 20.9 war
      Aaron Nola – 2014 – 16.6 war
      Kyle Freeland – 2011 – 11.6 war
      Kyle Gibson – 2006 – 9.4 war
      Ken Giles – 2011 – 6.2 war
      A.J. Griffin – 2009 – 5.8 war
      Rhys Hoskins – 2014 – 3.7
      Jake Diekman – 2007 – 2.4 war
      Adam Morgan – 2011 – 2.0 war
      Travis d’Arnaud – 2007 – 2.0 war

      1. It’s still maddening how He was involved in the trade for Pence.
        The story I heard was that it was a mistake . . . I don’t buy that. It would have been picked up in at some point.

  64. Question for Romus or anyone else well versed in WAR – let’s say the top 15 MLB players in WAR were all third basemen. Would that mean that the 15th best player have a higher WAR than the best second basemen? Meaning, how does position factor into the equation? Thanks.

    1. ….for instance, if Franco’s WAR is currently borderline AAA level, how much better is he than say, Mitch Walding? Maikel is on pace for 100 RBIs. Not that he’ll sustain that pace but still, it begs the question…

      1. Here is the Fangrphas ratings:
        FanGraphs Positional Adjustment
        Position Full Season Adjustment
        C +12.5
        1B -12.5
        2B +2.5
        SS +7.5
        3B +2.5
        LF -7.5
        CF +2.5
        RF -7.5
        DH -17.5

      2. Franco is certainly much better than Walding. Walding isn’t even hitting well in AAA, let alone MLB.

        If you’re asking if he’s much better than the oft-mentioned “replacement player”, not currently. That’s partly because 3B is a fairly loaded position currently, but also because he’s not hitting particularly well. But it’s worth mentioning that the replacement level doesn’t mean anyone from AAA could fill in and do as well. It’s more like it’s a player that anyone could acquire, but doesn’t necessarily have on hand. Like Freddy Galvis. He came from our system, but it’s not like we ALWAYS have one on hand.

    2. Position comes into play in the defensive components of WAR. Most obviously from the positional adjustments (i.e., a 1B gets less defensive value than a SS), but also from scaling. That is, defensive stats are based on the positional average of MLB players. So a particularly good fielding 1B could have more defensive value than even the best fielding SS in theory, particularly if the average defensive 1B is actually horrible.

      As for your initial question, WAR is meant to be an equalizer for all players. So if the top 15 players were all 3B, then yes, the 15th best player is more valuable than the best 2B. A 3B gets less defensive credit than a 2B in a vacuum, but in the case of Arenado, for example, he’s so exemplary that he’s still more valuable than many 2B defensively. For most of the lower defensive spectrum players it’s just a matter of them hitting that much better, though.

  65. Tough stretch coming up: besides @KC(3) this weekend and COL(3) next weekend, the Phillies play mostly .500+ teams. MIL(4), CHI(3), @MIL(3), STL(3), @LAD(3), @SD(3) heading into early June.

    2. @8mark – if the starters avoid the injury bug, the Phillies should be able to finish that stretch with AT LEAST 0.500 – while those teams are considered potential playoff teams, the Phillies should be able to handle the opponents starting rotation. The key to the Phillies’ sustained success is the bullpen. Neris as a closer still scares the heck out of me and the young arms (Seranthony, Arano, Ramos, Ed Garcia) are showing vulnerability in giving away big innings.

      1. I’ve said this before, the best way for the Phillies to fix the back end of the bullpen is to have Pivetta and Vinny hold it. I’m still optimistic that Pivetta can be a reliable SP but his fit right now is in the back end of the bullpen. It will be a mistake to trade top prospects for a RP, just sign Kimbrel if the FO doesn’t have the stomach to move Pivetta and Vinny in the pen.

        I still like Klentak to get a reliable SP regardless of arm he throws. DLS still needs a reliable breaking ball, Anderson is suited as a long man, Ranger is no better than Vinny and Medina-Jojo-Irvin are not MLB ready.

      2. And also, Deivi Grullon > Knappy boy. Deivi working under JTR can further aid his development particularly in the defensive side.

        1. Kuko, I agree that Grullon is working toward that back up role but for now, I think they like Knapp’s maturity and leadership. He’s a coach in the making. I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time he’s 30, he’s coaching at some level.

          1. Although the system as a whole has been a little disappointing this year, there have been some really nice surprises such as:

            Grullon – still not a big enough sample size, but he’s playing so much better than he’s ever played before. Is looking like a big league catcher – maybe even starting quality. We will see.

            Maton – take a look at the deeper stats. Tons of walks, not many strikeouts, lots of extra base power. This guy could end up being a starting player in the big leagues – he is sneaking up on people.

            Vierling – so far, so good. Let’s see how he does at AA.

            Falter – he’s done really, really well at AA. He’s a lefty so, as I said yesterday, the velocity may be much less important.

            Gutierrez and Marchan – lots of potential.

            I’m sure I’m missing some others, including relievers, but these have stood out.

            1. And keep Ben Brown in mind – it’s only 13.2 IP so far, but Ben Brown looks good. The scouting report about his stuff is inconsistent but the physical projection looks real. I will make an effort to catch Ben Brown in LWD to see my self.

              I’m more of a “pitchability” and “command” guy that’s why I like Bailey Falter a lot. However, a SP needs to have a reliable “out” pitch, otherwise, he will be prone and vulnerable to big innings. I’m ok with Bailey Falter’s velocity, his FB is mostly sitting in low 90s so it is not bad – but one (preferably both) of his CB or CU need to become plus and get hitters (both LH or RH) out on a regular basis.

  66. If Altherr clears waivers, I would want him back if only because we are so thin in the upper levels of the organization. Plus he can play CF. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team like Cleveland snatches him up since they too are thin on outfielders.

  68. 8mark. you can find a 1000 or more kids who can play center and hit .0.88 every org. has them, just say goodbye to him

    1. I hear you, Roc. But none of them had the 2017 he did. At least he showed something to hope on. No sweat if he moves on. Just interested to see how his situation plays out.

  69. How are they doing?..Just for fun….Darin Ruf, Samsung,Korea .317/.437/.584……Joey Meneses, Orix, Japan .206/.288/.363 Dominic Brown. Dos Laredos, Mexico .274/.331/.508 Zach Green, Sacramento, PCL .321/.424/.702

    1. Holy crap on Zach Green – man is that ever looking like a mistake!! Wow. Guess they thought he couldn’t stick at third, plays first and there’s clearly no room at first. But holy cow he’s doing well.

      1. Have to remember the league…the PCL…they do have some friendly hitter parks.
        League… R/9… HR/9… H/9
        International.. 4.0 (14th) ..0.7 (sixth).. 8.7 (eighth)
        Pacific Coast.. 4.9 (fourth).. 0.9 (first)..9.4 (second)

  70. Rule IV draft is coming and after the draft – I expect teams to sign Kuechel and Kimbrel.

    For Keuchel – it will be Phillies vs Yankees. Keuchel will shun away MIL and MIN.

    For Kimbrel – the Bravos will be on top of the queue. But the Phillies can be a threat of Klentak lost on Keuchel.

    If it is my call, sign Keuchel and move Pivetta and Vinny in the pen. Kimbrel is prone to HR lately and that sounds trouble in CBP.

    1. Agree that Keuchel should be much preferable to Kimbrel who as a reliever, I’m sorry – just don’t trust them. But my very first preference is to trade for a lefty starter…

      1 Mike Minor
      2 Caleb Smith
      3 Madison Bumgarner

          1. @8mark – Ray’s numbers are not staggering. But he is better than any arms that the Phillies have behind Nola-Arrieta-Eflin-Eickhoff.

            I like MadBum because of his proven track record but I have serious doubts about his drive to winning. With 3 WS rings, MadBum may value $$ than winning.

      2. If SFG will accept NickyDubs + Ranger for MadBum — Klentak should pounce. I expect SFG to wait it out until the deadline. Keuchel can probably pitch by middle of July.

        2. I cannot imagine any universe where those two afterthought players are sufficient to land one of the greatest postseason performers of all time. They would at least want a package like Kingery, Haseley and some other guys. In other words, the type of package not worth doing.

          1. I believe KuKo is basing his trade suggestion on the fact that Bumgarner is a two-month rental and will not generate enough return value as opposed if he had 2 or more years left on a contract.
            And certainly that does happen in that teams sometimes do not get the value they expect with trading rental layers….and now with no QO attached to a rental, the gaining team incurs another drawback in the trade.
            But …still think Ranger will not be doing it from the pitcher angle of the proposed trade…maybe JoJo or DLS or Cole Irvin

            1. No, I get all that. Still, I believe the demands will be extreme and far, far, far greater than a package like Ranger and Williams.

            2. Yes…Sabean would not settle for those two…..IMO the pot has to be sweetened……another MLB ready or close to MLB ready minor league pitcher .
              He will ask for Medina or Howard, and Klentak would counter with one of either DLS, Cole Irvin or maybe JoJo.

            3. Think about it this way. The Giants are trying to get pieces for a future first division team – players that are cheap and if they develop, expensive to replace. Williams and Ranger are just spare pieces – guys with little value or projection that they could replace easily and inexpensively. Why would they want them? I do think they might want Grullon – he could be intriguing for them because if he pans out, he’s Buster’s replacement.

            5. And you also to have o look at it this other way…..if they are getting pieces for a first division team….Bumgarner who will be 31 next season, regressing every year now from his 2015 season…on a LTC…is not what they want.
              I think Williams, DLS or Irvin, and Ranger may be what they would accept.

              And Williams, IMO, is more than a spare part.

            7. Klentak will have options, no need to overreach. I can see MadBum walking away from SFG for a chance of big $$ and win another ring.

              Not only I expect MadBum to be on the decline, I don’t see the winning drive in him anymore.

              Medina and Howard will be a target for any trade with an SP. Klentak should just sign Keuchel rather than overpaying with prospects like most people here will say.

              Given Klentak’s approach in the offseason, I don’t expect him to make that big splash in the trade market involving the top prospects who are currently under performing their value as of now.

            8. Remember, Dipoto ask for top arms too as part of the Segura trade. But oh boy, Klentak surprised the smart people in this site when he only gave up an obvious malcontent in JPC while unloading Carlos Santana.

              Same thing with JTR, most believe that JTR will drain the farm (true if you think of value for value). But Klentak took advantage when no other teams want to give up a top prospect for JTR —- Klentak was able to unload a C with big holes and a top prospect who is showing red flags.

              I’ve been saying this before — winning in trades are not value for value. It’s about being opportunistic and leverage.

            9. Williams projects as a 4th outfielder – the very definition of a spare part. He has some possible projection but he’s like the last guy in a trade – not the centerpiece.

  71. 8mark, I don’t think we go after Keuchel. I think the deadline target is a MadBum/Will Smith package, with Mike Minor 2d. I just don’t think Gabe uses a “Closer”, so I don’t see them investing in one. If Robbie Ray is available, he would be 3rd on my list, I don’t think Caleb Smith will be.

    1. Matt, teams tend NOT to package their biggest trade chips together unless it’s for an exceptional haul which the Phillies don’t really possess. They usually can maximize their value by trading them separately.

  72. 8mark, a very good point. Probably more wishful than realistic thinking on my part. I see us getting a SP and a significant BP piece somehow by the deadline.

  73. Who can tell me about KC righty reliever Scott Barlow? 6th and 7th innings last night, 6 Ks – the first 3 swinging (Doobie and Cesar with bases loaded), then he got Franco, Williams and Cutch all looking – for what, I have no idea. Let’s call their GM and see what it’ll take to get him….

    1. A failed Dodger’s minor league starter who did not crack their top 30 and who also could not find the strike zone…so re-invented himself as a reliever, as many do.

    2. Not sure what happened with our bats last night, but the Royals are the best 14-25 club I can remember. Their lineup is impressive. Their run differential is only minus-8.

    1. Yeah – he has his moments for sure but he’s a good player and when he’s hot he can carry a major league team for a month – odds are that none of Haseley, Randolph or Mobil’s will ever be that good. I hope I’m wrong but I seriously doubt it.

        1. I see them improving every year however once they get to the majors….Doobie was a 8.2BWAR player his first two years combined….his last three years, 2bWAR player combined.
          Klentak will have to pull the plug eventually, might as well do it this July, before his value dips further.

    2. Romus – When he’s in the zone, he’s incredible. When he’s in a slump, forget about it. This year that seems to be the M.O. of our entire outfield. Last night our outfield was 1-8.

      1. Wawa…..that one swing…and the balls in the mitt ..sheesh.
        I cannot understand how, in year five, he has regressed every year from his first year in 2015…metrically….makes no sense to me.

        1. Romus – S**t happens. Remember the Dodgers 2nd baseman who forgot how to throw to 1st base.

  75. Time to get Cutch outta the lead off spot? Move him to the 7th spot and either go
    1. Hernandez
    2. Segura
    Or vice versa.

    1. Before we try that, let’s first leave Cutch in the leadoff spot, bat Harper 2, followed by Segura.

      1. That doesn’t solve cutch hitting like .230 from the lead off spot. And you can point to his obp but I’d rather have someone with a decent average and decent obp up there. Over the last month hit hitting at a .217 clip w a OBP barely above .300.

        1. Okay. Well in any case, I choose not to die on this hill. I’m not as disenchanted with Cesar as you’re enamored with him, apparently.

          1. This has to do with cutch not ceaser. Hell put Segura in the leadoff spot and hit Harper 2.
            Only used Hernandez as an explain bc he’s the one suited for it the most. High average about 50 points higher than Cutch and same obp but again doesn’t have to be him.

  76. Homer Bailey does it to the Phils again. Amazing! The guy gets a big contract, then dumped by the Reds, comes to the Royals and is reborn.

    Phillies struck out a ton again last night. Please, put the bat on the ball. Realmuto threw out what, 2 out of five last night? Great footwork and throws.

    1. I really, really, really hate interleague play. For some reason or another, we’re terrible at it.

  77. Good to hear that Scott Kingery will likely begin a rehab stint on Monday. As formidable as this lineup can be without him, he brings an energy that it often needs greatly. Some of these ABs are very uninspiring.

    I know there are many Harper detractors, but even when he’s not hitting well, his mere presence in the lineup still makes a huge impact. And now he’s ebbing back toward a hot streak. His ability to work each and every at bat is elite. A single to left and 3 BBs last night are proof positive.

      1. Hah…..for Cesar, though…the price is high, I would try to get $2M….that could sign 2 or 3 young Latin kids.

    1. Hope he does well…Phillies may rue the day at some point, but that is the business of baseball and the way it goes sometimes.
      Segura should be good for a few more years at short.

      1. If you want to blame somebody, blame JP. The Phillies can’t afford to wait while he goes through his struggles. If he didn’t struggle that much, he would still be here.

  79. Aaron Altherr claimed by the Giants. Also, MadBum gave Giants his no-trade list. We are on it. Pretty much the only teams not on it are WC teams. Things change, of course, but the chances that we get him are very slim.

    1. No-trade lists are usually for negotiating power rather than an “I don’t want to go there” list. I don’t think we trade for him, but us being on the list is simply because we could reasonably target him and this gives him a say on the negotiations.

      1. if he gets traded, then no qualifying offer, which can make a huge difference for Mad Bum in free agency, assuming he sees what has happened with Keuchel, unless he really, really, just wants to stay in SF.

    1. This is a blessing in disguise. Give him time to heal, send him to rehab, and give DLS or Irvin 4 starts minimum.

  81. Per Jim Salisbury, Cole Irvin will make his big league debut tomorrow. That’s exciting! Looking forward to see what he can do.

  82. 8mark, Did Salisbury mention if this was due to the way the rotation fell in LHV and that is why Pivetta was not called up?

    2. It’s not like Pivetta was dominating AAA. He’s striking out a lot of guys but he’s walking a ton of guys too.

      1. I have been advocating for Irvin for a long time and now we will hopefully see the future.

        1. I have no problem with Cole Irvin getting the call. When opportunity knocks, you gotta answer the door. Let’s see what he’ll do tomorrow.

  84. Irvin has to be added to the 40….did someone else get DFAed….or was it Altherr’s 7-day moratorium clearance?

    1. Bohm and Vierling each three-for-five. Keep it up and get to Reading soon.

      My observation after having seen them play three games is that they are for real. Admittedly very small sample size so I’m not making any table-pounding pronouncements, but a few more games like tonight and yesterday and it will be hard not to.

      BTW, from a thread earlier this week, I like the French Francoeur comp to Vierling.

  89. Whoa, Zach Eflin is finally turning into a quality starting pitcher. He was in total control tonight. Cautiously optimistic he can keep this up.

    1. I really think you have a fully healthy and confident Eflin. I picked him as my breakout pitcher this year (didnt get the Pivetta hype). I’m trying to think of a comp for him . . . A harder throwing Brandon Webb?

      1. EricD….I see him more of a 2008/’10 Mike Pelfrey of the Mets when Pelfrey was at his best, then slipped..

      2. I wouldn’t profile Eflin as Brandon Webb even though I would be ecstatic if he had Webb’s results for the next couple of years. Webb was a heavy sinker guy. I would say he’s closer to a younger Anibal Sanchez in his pitch mix. Once Anibal got past his struggles, he was a very effective pitcher for a while.

    2. The Guru imo he pitch like a Greg Maddox clone tonigh, just pounded that corner all night.

      1. rocco…yeah….and if I remember correctly, his name was the first on the list for pitchers to be traded this past off-season.

  90. So far, Top Ten WAR Pitchers:
    Eflin (4) and Eickhoff (9)in the top ten.

    WAR for Pitchers
    1. Minor • TEX 2.6
    2. Castillo • CIN 2.5
    3. Marquez • COL 2.0
    4. Eflin • PHI 2.0
    5. Corbin • WSN 1.9
    6. Boyd • DET 1.9
    7. Verlander • HOU 1.9
    8. Davies • MIL 1.9
    9. Eickhoff • PHI 1.8
    10. Turnbull • DET 1.

    1. Arrieta might slot into the 4th spot of the rotation. If Irvin pitches well, we could have the most expensive #5 starter ever.

      1. If our worst starter is Arrieta, who’s pitching like a 3-4, I would be very happy.

  91. Mentioned this the other day but when do we think of moving Cutch outta the lead off spot. IMHO he’s not doing very well in the lead off spot, at least in the last month. Close to the Mendoza line as far as batting average and barley over .300 OBP. John Stonis alluded to this today as well.
    People might not be the biggest fans of Hernandez but he seems like the guy who should be hitting lead off right now.
    I would say Segura but after thinking more about it he’s too perfect of a 2 hole hitter.

      1. And I want to stay there. Also You still make adjustments when need be. Cutch isn’t doing well in the leadoff spot . . . Why not maximize the line up so we can put distance between us and the rest? People are talking about moving VV outta the rotation, not keeping him there, why? Bc you always make adjustments.
        Why leave someone in a spot they are struggling, esp when it’s the top of the order. If it was further back in the line up fine but that’s a key spot.
        If someone blindly saw the statistics without knowing the players, CeHe or Segura would be penciled at the top of most people’s line up, over Cutch.
        Can someone give an argument why he should stay there ? (Besides we are in first)

        1. Eric – Don’t want to sound like a wise guy. By maximizing the line up, do you mean, averaging 10 runs per game?

          1. I don’t understand the question . . . We obviously aren’t averaging 10 runs a game nor will we ever. But again, what would be the argument of leaving someone who’s struggling so badly (go look at his numbers in the last month, not good) in the leadoff spot?
            It doesn’t have to be CeHe, Segura would be solid lead off guy, I just love him in the second hole.
            I will ask again, if you didn’t know the names of the players and looked at their number, would you not have CeHe in the lead off spot over Cutch?

            1. Eric – My point is that, as a veteran, McCutchen should be able to work through it. If it were a rookie, I’d agree with you.

            2. Based on their stats today, Cesar should be higher in the order. But looking at their underlying stats, Cesar is due a bit of a negative regression and Cutch is due a bit of a positive one. If those either of those regressions happen, Cutch will be back to getting on base at a higher clip. Also, he is a FAR superior base runner. So if they’re on base at the same clip, Cutch is the better one to have on base with a good hitter up.

              So do you ride the hot hand, or do you play the numbers and expect regression to the mean?

            3. I’m not talking about taking him outta the line up, I’m talking about moving him down in the order. No reason he can’t work his way outta it in the 7th hole.

  92. MLB Draft 2012:
    Supplemental First Round Picks do have value….check 32nd pick thru the 47th pick….combined over 50WAR….and most are in their mid-20s

    32 Twins *Jose Berrios (minors) RHP… WAR5.7….. HS
    33 Padres *Zach Eflin (minors) RHP… WAR3.7 …..HS
    34 Athletics *Daniel Robertson (minors) SS …WAR3.3….. HS
    35 Mets *Kevin Plawecki (minors) C….WAR 3.0…..4Yr
    36 Cardinals *Stephen Piscotty (minors) 3B 8.3 …. 4Yr

    38 Brewers *Mitch Haniger (minors) OF….WAR10.4 4Yr
    39 Rangers *Joey Gallo (minors) 3B …WAR6.8 HS
    *****40 Phillies *Shane Watson (minors) RHP …..HS
    41 Astros *Lance McCullers Jr. (minors) RHP…WAR 6.3….. HS
    42 Twins *Luke Bard (minors) RHP… WAR0.4 …. 4Yr

    44 Padres *Travis Jankowski (minors) OF.. WAR2.3 …4Yr

    47 Athletics *Matt Olson (minors)…..1B…..WAR6.8…..HS

  93. I’m excited for Cole Irvin today. It’s almost like watching your kid graduate, and land his dream job. Good luck.

    1. So true wawa. I remember when my romus got his first job. He was a massage therapist in a strip club so proud

  94. Excellent start by Cole Irvin. Lived on the outside edge, but went inside enough to keep hitters honest. Doesn’t really throw hard (88-91), but had a good changeup and slider. Very good command. Not sure he will get another start, but he absolutely deserves another one.

    3. Not sure he will get another start? What! You don’t throw away a $20 bill you find in your pocket simply because you didn’t expect to find it there.

      2. It’s just 1 start, against a last place Royals team. I’m optimistic, but I’m not going to anoint him as the answer to our starting problems after just 1 start.

    4. Because Cole Irvin is a pitcher not a thrower. VV can throw 96 and Pivetta throws 98; where are they?

  95. Can we end the discussion of the Phillies acquiring Keuchel or Bumgarner now?

    1. No. Let’s see how he does for another month. Hey, I like him but I’m not ready to say he’s a better option than Bumgarner – an epic post season performer.

    2. Yes. We have enough pitching. I have been preaching Irvin since end of last year. Just because he was a last administration draft selection, don’t dis him. Use him.

    3. Wawa did you ever hear of shoemaker, who pitched the same kind of game in 1997 in his first start? for us, i never did. so how Can you make that statement, we dont need keuchel. off of one start

        1. Think VV saw Irvin’s quote about letting JT take him for a ride? If there was ever a reason for VV to kick himself, that was it.

          I don’t know what the plan is for Irvin, but I hope it involves giving him more starts and not automatically sending him back down like they did last year with DLS. This year they may have more reason to keep him: 1) he’s a lefty and 2) VV needs more time off to learn his lesson, assuming that’s the real reason he’s on the IL.

      3. Kinda ironic bc didn’t VV have a pretty nice start to his philly career too? If he’s only 89-90 he better hit his spots each and every start. Very encouraging but it was one start, let see him string together some solid games before we start to say he’s the upgrade we need. And yes, we need an upgrade.

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