39 thoughts on “Threshers Recap – 5/5/2019”

1. I dare not talk up the 3 former #1 draft picks in Reading but let me say this. Randolph, who was injured for a couple of weeks, has hit in 12 of the 14 games he’s played in. He’s been on base in all of his last 13 games. He’s hitting .264/.339/.472 with 3 HRs and 11 RBIs. A 4 for 9 Sunday helps a lot of that but he’s been consistent this year.

   Haseley’s hitting .238/.347/.417 so far this year. A 4 for 4 yesterday helped that out. He’s hitting .387 with a .513 OBP in his last 9 games. Maybe I’m cherry picking but if you’re a trend guy, the trend is up.

   I don’t have much to say about Moniak. His .218/.248/.416 is unappealing. His lack of BBs, 4 in his 24 games, is horrible. The best I can say is he’s only 20, he has 3 HRs and 15 RBIs, and he has 4 SBs and 0 CS. He’s hitting .222/.222 in his last 10 games so the trend is flat, at best.

   Or maybe I should listen to words of Doye O’Dell, “Shut up and drink your beer.”

   1. Ehh, I’ve been following them pretty closely so far from the stat lines. I’d say Moniak has looked better than Haselely so from, strictly from a stat sheet. Moniak has 3 hrs so far, which is encouraging vs the previous years. Looks like some of the power is starting to develop. He has had several multi hit games as well. The BB is correct though. Ihasley had a nice game 2 but, I’d say overall Moniak is having the better year so far. I believe Haselely was down near the Mendoza line ahead of Moniak l. All that said, they both need more nights like tonight .. their better game!

      Randolph, I didn’t realize he was hurt, but it is time for him to start progressing and hopefully he is. If he does, I’d imagine he is trade bait after all these years combined with the state of the Phillies current OF

      1. Can we correlate any major league outfielders to these 3 that were so-so at best in the minors but then had a break-out career?

         1. Denny… good question., but do not understand most people lumping all three together.
            According to the metrics…Haseley seems to be ahead of the three.
            Understand the age-to-level difference, but still holds a measurable distance in front of the other two.

            Haseley….PA-860..,,,.sl-.292/.358/.424….ISO-.132…..15%-K…8%-BB
            Moniak…..PA-1275…sl-.254/.297/.373…ISO-.119.,,,,..21%-K…5%-BB
            Randolph..PA-1537…sl-.257/347/374…..ISO-.117…….21%-K…11%-BB

         2. I think it is pretty rare to have a so-so minor league career and then have a long successful major league career.

            Thinking only about Moniak, I’m hoping for something like David Dahl or Albert Amora at this point. They were both first round draft picks from high school, took a while to get through the minors, and now look like they can be solid contributors in the majors.

      2. Moniak had a hot start the first few games while Haseley came out ice cold, but for the majority of the season Haseley has been doing better and now the overall lines reflect that. Haseley’s OPS is now like .100 points higher and he’s got a nearly 1:1 k:bb ratio. I think he’ll be in AAA soon.

      3. Player A:
         -3.7 % walk rate
         – 28% K rate
         – .218/.248/.416 on a .279 BABIP

         Player B:
         -13.9% walk rate
         – 14.9% K rate
         – .238/.347/.417 on a .250 BABIP

         I will let you figure out who is Player A and B, but pretty clear that Player A is not having a better year than Player B.

      4. Just saying, Randolph was taken only one year before Moniak…

2. Well stated Bellman1

3. Medina has certainly not pitched like our #1 pitcher. He’s still not a strike thrower. And Howard has a mystery ailment with us all hoping it’s not his arm or shoulder. Congrats to Evanko on moving to Cwater. We do seem to have several interesting bullpen arms in the system moving up the ladder. Gilbert and Garcia appear like they’re close to being called up. I’m assuming DLS will get sent back down to reassume his starting role with an arm needed to replace him, but with 3 still out hurt.
   I do get excited when Reading starts hitting, they have so much potential but just haven’t had much success yet. Let’s go Reading, keep it up.

   1. After watching Luke Leftwich in ST, I was not impressed. But following his minor league games, he either has made adjustments or is just facing lesser competition.

4. Can someone fill me in on Vierling? I only know what I see in the box scores and by looking at that I am wondering why he has not made any prospect lists. Just curious as he seems to be a hitting machine.

   1. His stock dropped prior to the draft because he had a horrible showing in the Cape Cod league. A college draftee signed in the 5th round or later doesn’t tend to be on top prospect lists (with the possible exception of injured players, which doesn’t apply here). He’s firmly in the “show me” phase of prospect rankings.

      That said, he’s got tools and projection. It was always just a question of if it could translate. It has thus far, but he’s still in the levels of the minors where you’d expect a college player to perform well.

      1. Double A will tell us whether he’s a legit prospect or not. With three 1st rd picks ahead of him, he’ll remain at Clearwater for most of the year unless Haseley earns a promotion to LHV, which seems far off at the moment.

      2. “. A college draftee signed in the 5th round or later doesn’t tend to be on top prospect lists (with the possible exception of injured players, which doesn’t apply here). He’s firmly in the “show me” phase of prospect rankings.”

         This likely doesn’t apply to Vierling, but I have to note that Ryan Howard was a college draftee selected in the 5th round.

         1. Hoskins also

            1. Indeed – his status as a 5th round pick in this organization make him a baseball stud candidate. He’s been extremely impressive this year.

   2. The guy hits with good enough pop with an ISO of .185 so far as a pro..
      The 30 games at Harwich and his freshmen year at ND were his worst seasons at the plate. As a HS senior was 2nd team All-American.
      When he gets to Reading will be a good test.
      Maybe another 5th round gem
      http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=197492

5. Has Gowdy pitched recently? I haven’t recalled seeing him in any of the reports lately….

   1. A little from him from a recent interview:
      http://www.phoulballz.com/2019/04/interview-excerpts-phils-pitching.html

   2. Been a couple of weeks. Hope he’s OK

   3. I believe he’s on an innings count this season.I think they’ll liberally intersperse missed starts so that he can extend his season rather than race to the target number.

      For those of you who don’t know, Gowdy has pitched 11.2 innings in his first 3 seasons, all in his 2016 season (9.2 regular season, 2.0 playoffs).

      1. Thanks for the update. Maybe he also warmed up in one of these early season rain games and they did not want to warm him up again. I do like what looks to be a 6×2 tandem starter rotation at Lakewood. Keep as many arms on a starting track as possible and give some of the young Williamsport arms a taste of Lakewood.

6. I was going to write about ROSSO after his last start and now here he is with yet another gem!
   * He’s 22 in his first taste of AA and dominating a hitters league to the tune of 1.03 era, 32/6 in 26 ip.
   * His minor league career ERA is 1.68! WHAT?! (And it’s not sss. It’s over 43 g, 41 starts, 225 IP.)
   In 6 stops over 2+ years in minors…
   > He’s never posted an ERA > 3.00.
   > He’s always had K’s > IP’s.
   > His lowest K/BB is 2.55.
   As of late 2018, scouting report says FB is 90-92, t93, but it is a cutter with late movement. And he has a good SL. I don’t know a lot more though at 6’4”, 215 and still youngish, maybe he’s added more mph this year?! Anyone know for sure? At some point his success at every stop has to mean something.

   1. From Fangraphs: “Rosso is a low slot cutter/breaking ball righty who struck more than a batter per inning over a season split between Low and Hi-A. He sits in the upper-80s and his stuff doesn’t appear to merit the results he’s already gotten, so we might be underrating him.”

      1. Curious if his stuff doesn’t appear to merit the results why would they be underrating him….or was that a typo?

         He kind of reminds of that kid we had 4-5 years back out of Puerto Rico Julio Rodriguez. He racked up some serious K’s but started to get figured out once he got to AA.

         1. The quote is from a section of unranked prospects. FG didn’t have him in their top prospects, just under a section that was called “Pitching Curiosities”. So they are saying the might be underrating him by not ranking him, given the results he has gotten. But I see your point.

      2. Hmmm, I do find the fangraphs note you reference. “He sits in the upper-80s”

         However, I also find this quote from Sal A in a Bob Brookover article in May, 2018:
         “We brought him into camp, and here’s this big dude with this nice-looking body, and he got on the mound, and he was throwing 93 to 95 with a good slider,” Agositinelli said during a phone interview. “I was told he topped out at 88 to 90 when he was with the Dodgers. Sometimes, guys just mature at a different rate.”

         So, is he sitting in the low 90s or high 80s?

         I’m going to bank on accuracy of Sal’s comments (and the fact that he’s fooling even AA hitters now), and have hope in his low 90s cutter with movement. He’s clearly not a top prospect but his star may keep rising if he continues to dominate.

         Jim, what did you observe in 2H ’18 in CW?

         1. Found two more quotes, one from phillies minor thoughts in 2017: “Rosso is pretty much a two pitch pitcher, relying on keeping his fastball down and hitting the corners. His fastball has good cut and run to it, staying consistently between 89-91 mph, topping at 92.”

            And one from Prospects Live saying “His FB sits 90-92 with late cutting action”

            Sounds like low 90s, though who knows what he is throwing so far at Reading.

         2. Rosso struck me as Jose Taveras with a 90-91 mph fastball.

      3. Here’s Fangraphs on Rosso from today:

         Rosso has a 1.03 ERA through five starts and 32 strikeouts in 26 innings. He’s a cutter/curveball guy with command, working both in on lefties effectively. He’s got a big 6-foot-4 frame, his delivery is loose and fluid, and he’s had several years of statistical success now. It’s a non-traditional repertoire and I’m not sure what kind of role it would fit best in, but Rosso is becoming a relevant upper-level arm.

7. The top four batters in CLW’s lineup are all hitting .299 or better. Be still my beating heart.

8. The age to level difference for, say, Moniak and Haseley, is huge. As much as MM has struggled so far this year, he’s still putting up a higher OPS than Randolph did last year (both in their age 21 seasons in AA). So I have hope.

   That said, there are not a lot of comps of very good MLB hitters who struggled mightily in the minors.

   Age 20 season in A+ ball:
   Moniak: .270/.304/.383
   Matt Holliday: .274/.335/.389

   Holliday’s numbers are better, but given the difference in defense, they’re pretty comparable. The following year, the Rockies kept Holliday in A+ ball as a 21 year old, and he put up a .275/.358/.475 line. As a 23 year old in AA he put up a .253/.313/.395 line, and that OPS of .706 was his worst in the minors.

   Hanley Ramirez put up a .271/.335/.385 line as a 21 year old in AA (same age/level as Moniak right now — and I could see Moniak ending the year with a similar OPS in the low .700s)

   OTOH, I think it’s hard to find really successful MLB hitters who put up full season OPS numbers like .646 (Randolph last year) or .625 (Moniak in Lakewood). Michael Morse — not nearly the hitter that Holliday and Ramirez were — had some years like that — his first four years in the minors (ages 18-21) he had OPS of .642, .688, .672, and .690. And Ian Desmond went .576, .661, .635 in OPS his first three years (18-20). But there aren’t a ton like that.

   1. More Matt Holliday’s age 20 A+ stats:
      – K rate: 14.5% (vs. 21.5% for MM)
      – BB rate: 8.4% (vs. 4.7% for MM)
      – BABIP: .314 (vs. .334 for MM)

      The stats are not close. Mickey is no Matt Holliday.

   2. Hanley Ramirez’s age 21 AA stats:
      – K rate: 11.9% (vs. 21.5% for MM)
      – BB rate: 7.5% (vs. 4.7% for MM)
      – BABIP: .302 (vs. .334 for MM)

      Again, not close. Mickey is no Hanley Ramirez

      Those two guys are Hall of Famers. Not fair to compare him to them, but if you want to do it, you have to look at more than BABIP driven stats.

      1. Not so sure those two guys are Hall of Fame players. Holliday maybe, but it’s a stretch. Ramirez doesn’t even have 2,000 hits.

         1. I thought Ramirez had more than 2000 hits wow didnt know that,

         2. Nope, neither are HOF players!

         3. Ok, maybe those guys are not HoF’ers, but my point is that Mickey is not going to be the same player as either of them. The stats are not close. K rate and BB rate have huge disparity and those are much more relevant than BABIP driven stats.

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