# Clearwater Threshers Recap – 7/31/2018

The Clearwater Threshers (54-50) beat Tampa, 4-2.  Mauricio Llovera (the guy everyone wants to move to the bullpen) took a no-hitter into the seventh inning when a lead off walk helped derail his evening.  Llovera (4-7, 4.40) pitched 6.2 innings and gave up 2 runs on 1 hit and 2 walks.  He struck out a career high 10 Tarpons.  Jonathan Hennigan (0.00) allowed an inherited runner to score after a balk call, but settled down and struck out 2 in 1.1 innings.  Addison Russ (2.70) struck out 2 in one inning and picked up his 6th save.

The Threshers scored a run in the second on a fielding error.  They scored again in the fourth on Jose Gomez’ RBI single.  They tacked on a run in the fifth on Jose Pujols’ RBI double.  And they added an insurance run in the eighth on Kevin Markham’s sacrifice fly.

Mickey Moniak had 3 doubles in 4 at bats.  His first at bat in the second inning was a hard hit ball to the warning track in left that the fielder had to catch on the run toward the LF corner.  He gapped one in left center, crushed  one over the center fielder’s head, and drove one to right.  Moniak has been hitting the ball hard all season.  He could be hitting .308 now if one hard hit ball a week (17 weeks) had found turf rather than leather.  (I know it’s not scientific, but I was reminded of Kevin Costner’s Bull Durham speech about the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter as I typed that.)

Jose Pujols (.301) had 2 doubles in four at bats.  He pushed one into the right center field gap that scored Moniak in the fifth inning.  Beautiful piece of hitting on Pujols part.  Kevin Markham (.328) had a single and 2 RBI, but he also set up a run with a stolen base in the fourth inning.

• #1 Sixto Sanchez (4-3, 2.51) – placed on the 7-day DL on 4/15/18
• #3 Adonis Medina (9-3, 4.64) – DNP
• #6 Mickey Moniak (.255) – went 3-4 with a run scored and 3 doubles
• #11 Arquimedes Gamboa (.224) – went 0-5 with a K
• #17 Jose Gomez (.223) – went 1-4 with an RBI and 2 K

GCP Phillies East (19-13) postponed, rain.

• #25 Dominic Pipkin (0-1, 3.06) –

GCL Phillies West (18-16) beat the Yankees West, 7-3 in the conclusion of a game started on July 21st.  In this game, Kyle Gogloski had given up 2 hits, a solo HR, and struck out the side in the half inning that was played over a week ago.  Ethan Evanko (2-1, 2.08) pitched four innings and held the Yankees to one run on 3 hits and 2 walks.  He struck out five. Tom Sutera was signed on July 27th and has the distinction of pitching in a game for which he was not on the roster.  MiLB went so far as to assign him the the Phillies West on the 21st, six days before he signed a contract.  Love it.  Anyway, Sytera pitched two scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits.  Jaylen Smith (6.14) pitched a scoreless inning.  Sati Santa Cruz (13.50) gave up a run on 3 hits in one inning.

The Phillies wasted no time getting on the scoreboard when the game was restarted.  They scored 2 runs in the bottom of the first inning on a throwing error and a force out.  They added a run in the second when Christian Valerio scored on the front end of half a double steal.  (The runner at second was out.)  They scored 3 more runs in the fourth on Yerwin Trejo’s 2-run single and a force out.  They added an insurance run in the sixth on Luis Garcia’s RBI single.

Trejo (.310), Valerio (.287), and Luis Matos (.314) had 2 hits each.  Trejo had 2 of the Phillies 3 RBI.  Garcia had the other ribbie.

• #14 Luis Garcia (.368) – went 1-4 with an RBI

Lehigh Valley (66-41) beat Buffalo, 11-8.  Ranger Suarez could not take advantage of the early scoring onslaught by the IronPigs.  The LHP lasted just 4.1 innings after throwing 96 pitches.  He left with a runner on base and having given up 5 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks. Mark Leiter (2-0, 4.91) stranded the runner and pitched 2.2 innings.  He allowed 2 ER on a walk and 5 hits.  Tyler Gilbert (2.45) pitched two, one-hit, scoreless innings for his 3rd save.

Everybody hits!  And six guys had multi-hit games.  The Pigs jumped out to an early lead with two, 4-run innings.  They scored 4 in the first inning on 2-run home runs by Jesse Valentin (2) and Joey Meneses (19) before an out was recorded.  They punched their ticket for 4 more runss in the second on an error and Mitch Walding’s 3-run HR.  They added 2 runs in the sixth on Logan Moore’s solo HR (2) and Aaron Altherr’s RBI single.  They added an insurance run in the ninth on Dean Anna’s bases-loaded walk.

Anna and Walding weht 3-4; Altherr, Adron Chambers, and Moore went 2-4; and Ryan Goins went 2-4.  Walding had 3 RBI, Valentin and Meneses had 2 each.

• #8 Ranger Suarez (1-0, 2.70) – 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
• #9 Enyel De Los Santos (9-3, 2.51) – DNP
• #10 Cole Irvin (9-3, 2.93) – DNP
• #15 Roman Quinn (.296) – recalled by Phillies on 7/27/2018
• #16 Dylan Cozens (.248) – recalled by Phillies on 7/31/2018
• #21 Drew Anderson (7-3, 3.99) – DNP
• #28 Tom Eshelman (1-9, 5.97) – DNP

Reading (49-58) lost to Trenton, 3-2.  Harold Arauz (7-6, 4.96) came off the DL and gave up 3 runs in five innings on 8 hits and 2 walks.  He struck out nine.  Edubray Ramos made a rehab appearance and was on a pitch couunt.  He got two outs, gave up a hit, and walked a batter in 21 pitches.  Aaron Brown (5.06) stranded two runners and pitched one inning. Josh Tols (2.55) struck out 3 in 2.1 innings.

Darick Hall (.224) provided all the Phils’ runs with a 2-run HR (11) in the first inning.  Damek Tomscha (.310) went 2-4 with s run scored.

• #4 Adam Haseley (.339) – went 1-4
• #5 JoJo Romero (7-6, 3.80) – placed on the 7-day DL on 7/20/18
• #22 Kyle Dohy (0-2, 3.68) – DNP
• #23 Cornelius Randolph (.232) – went 0-4 with a K
• #24 Connor Seabold (0-2, 6.98) – DNP

Lakewood (67-40) beat Delmarva, 3-1.  Spencer Howard pitched three, one-hit, scoreless innings.  He walked 2 and struck out four, and was relieved after throwing 75 pitches in three inning.  Ismael Cabrera (7.43) gave up 3 hits and an unearned run in three innings.  Tyler Fallwell (4.00) picked up his first professional win with two, two-hit, scoreless innings.  Zach Warren (2.22) struck out 3 in a one-hit inning and earned his 9th save.

The BlueClaws tied the game with a run in the seventh inning on Dalton Guthrie’s RBI double.  They took the lead with 2 runs in the ninth on Guthrie’s sac fly and Matt Vierling’s RBI single.  Quincy Nieporte (.260) went 2-4 with a run scored.  Rodolfo Duran (.236) went 0-1 with a run scored and 3 walks.  Simon Muzziotti had an outfield assist at second base.

• #7 Jhailyn Ortiz (.227) went 0-4 with 2 K
• #12 Daniel Brito (.256) DNP
• #18 Kyle Young (3-3, 2.98) – placed on the 7-day DL on 7/15/18
• #19 Spencer Howard (6-7, 4.34) – 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• #20 David Parkinson (8-1, 1.51) – DNP
• #30 Nick Maton (.278) went 1-2 with a run scored, BB, SAC, K

Williamsport (17-26) lost to Mahoning Valley, 7-2.  Ethan Lindow (2.51) pitched six, solid innings.  He held the Scrappers to 2 runs on 4 hits including a solo HR.  He walked none and struck out eight.  Robinson Martinez (0-2, 6.75) took the loos on an unearned run in one inning.  He gave up a hit and struck out two.  Juan Escorcia (5.49) gave up 4 runs (3 ER) on 2 hits and 2 walks in one inning, but struck out two.

The Cutters scored a runin the first inning on Edwin Rodriguez’ RBI single.  They tied the game with a run in the sixth on Madison Stokes’ lead off HR (1).  Rafael Marchan (.320) went 2-4. Madison Stokes (.361) went 1-4 with a HR. Edwin Rodriguez (.357) went 1-4 with an RBI.

• #2 Alec Bohm (.192) – placed on the 7-day DL on 7/14/18
• #13 Francisco Morales – (3-2, 6.11) – DNP
• #26 Kevin Gowdy – 60-day DL
• #29 Jhordany Mezquita (1-0, 3.54) – DNP
• #29 Colton Eastman (0-2, 6.00) – DNP

DSL Phillies Red (22-28) beat the Rockies, 9-1.

DSL Phillies White (29-20) beat the Cubs2, 5-4 in ten innings.

Here’s the affiliate scoreboard from MiLB.

The rosters and lists are up to date as of July 31st.

Transactions (newest transactions in bold text)
7/31/18–Philadelphia designated 3B Trevor Plouffe for assignment.
7/31/18–Philadelphia designated LHP Zac Curtis for assignment.
7/31/18–Philadelphia recalled RF Dylan Cozens from Lehigh Valley
7/31/18–Lehigh Valley activated LF Danny Ortiz from the 7-day DL
7/31/18–Reading placed 2B Emmanuel Marrero on the 7-day DL
7/31/18–Reading activated RHP Harold Arauz from the 7-day DL
7/31/18–Reading sent RHP Jose Taveras on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies East.
7/31/18–Reading sent RHP Mario Sanchez on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies East.
7/31/18–Clearwater sent LHP Bailey Falter on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies West.
7/31/18–Lakewood sent RHP Victor Sobil on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies West.
7/31/18–RHP Tom Sutera assigned to GCL Phillies West.
7/27/18–Philadelphia signed free agent RHP Tom Sutera to a minor league contract.
7/30/18–Philadelphia sent SS J.P. Crawford on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies East.
7/28/18–Philadelphia optioned 2B Jesmuel Valentin to Lehigh Valley
7/28/18–C Rodolfo Duran assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
7/28/18–C Gregori Rivero assigned to Williamsport from Lakewood

## 87 thoughts on “Clearwater Threshers Recap – 7/31/2018”

1. joe2 says:

My highlight of the night was Moniak. Thanks Jim for adding the color to his AB’s. Can’t wait to see him finish August on a red hot tear.

2. John K says:

Patience!
So many prospects have been finding their way as the season wears on.
Moniak still has much to prove, but he’s slowly quieting his critics. He’s gotta finish strong (like getting his still just .645 OPS over .700). I continue to believe he can be a good one for us!

1. As a vocal critic, I don’t care what his season OPS turns out to be. I am willing to give him a complete mulligan on his first half stats. I want to see a good stat line with low strikeouts and high walks in his second half. Let’s just focus on his second half stats. He is looking good right now. It may have finally clicked for him. That would be great to see.

1. catch22hman says:

I look at Moniak’s splits. He had a really nice month in July – an .826 OPS, with a growing number of walks a nearly .500 slugging percentage. It’s the first time since his stint in the rookie league that I felt he’s had some traction. Another similar month would be fabulous and would likely earn him a promotion to AA where he would be well on track in terms of age (21). Here’s to him doing more of the same in August.

1. Lord Felagund says:

Hear hear!

3. Murray says:

Moniak heating up is very exciting as he’s found his legs for sure.
Suarez getting rocked isn’t good, hopefully his arm feels fine. He needs to bounce back next time. He and DeLos Santos both need to.
Is Loup better than Curtis? I have my doubts

1. srussell says:

you wonder if both Delos Santos and Suarez are feeling a bit of a letdown back in AAA after experiencing time in the big show

2. Nick M says:

I s Loup better than Curtis? Loup is better than Adam Morgan who is certainly better than Curtis. Look up the stats.

Alos, I am assuming Loup will be used as a LOOGY like Kapler planned to do with Milner. He is better against lefties than Morgan too.

Loup is a good acquisition. (as long as he doesn’t face many righties)

4. “He could be hitting .308 now if one hard hit ball a week (17 weeks) had found turf rather than leather.”

Jim. The stat for this is BABIP. Moniak’s BABIP is .328. That is above the league average of .300. To put it in perspective, Bryce Harper’s current year BABIP is .246. Moniak hits 45% of his balls on the ground (which have a much lower batting average). Harper hits 39% of his balls in play on the ground. They have similar K rates.

In summary, Moniak has NOT been unlucky this year. If anything, he has been a bit lucky to have his .255 batting average based on his periferal stats.

1. 3up3kkk says:

terrible misuse of BABIP.

Harper’s BABIP is extremely low because so many of his hits are homeruns and his outs are strikeouts, both of which don’t count in the BABIP calculation. Moniak’s BABIP is higher because his K rate is also high but his HR rate is low.

1. catch22hman says:

Thanks – to me, it’s such an easily abused statistic and should be modified.

The stat is supposed to be used to show how lucky or unlucky a hitter has been when he hits the ball in play. But it treats home runs the same as an out – that’s
totally #!$#Q$Q up! Rather, the stat should exclude home runs altogether and then you’ll know how lucky or unluckly the player has been when the ball is in play.

Alternatively, the stat should be BA balls in play or home runs (or you could just create a different stat on this). Much more accurate and “rewards” home run hitters for the best outcome possible.

1. 3up3kkk says:

Ironically BABIP was developed to evaluate defenses on how many balls that were put into play were being fielded. That’s why the stat doesn’t count HRs and K’s, because the ball isn’t “in play”.

I did a comparison awhile ago that I never posted comparing Ichiro and Pujols. Pujols had BABIPs in the 200’s during his MVP seasons because he hit so many home runs and didn’t strike out vs. Ichiro who had BABIPs approaching 400 because he hit for a very high average but actually struckout at a greater rate than Pujols did.

As you note, BABIP is probably the most abused stat used today…

1. Albert Pujols has a career babip of .290

he won the MVP three years, 2003, 2008 and 2009. his babip those years were: .346, .340 and .299. Those seasons were also his highest WAR seasons. his lowest babip on the cardinals was .277, which was also his lowest WAR season.

I have no idea what you are referring to but you did not look at Pujol’s BABIP and that is not a good example to use.

1. 3up3kkk says:

here’s the research I mentioned above. I looked at the 2010 season. My intention at the time was not note that a high BABIP wasn’t better than a low BABIP.

Let’s use a simple example and say Darin Ruf comes up to bat in the bottom of the 9th, team down 2 runs with 2 men on base. While there are many things he can do, I’ll focus only on those that directly impact BABIP and put them in order from worst to best outcome for the team.

1. He flies out to the warning track to end the game – Bad for the team/bad for his BABIP
2. He strikes out looking – Bad for the team /ok to neutral for his BABIP because the strikeout gets subtracted from the divisor in the BABIP formula. Better for him to strikeout than to fly out to the warning track.
3. He lines a singles up the middle to drive in 1 run – ok for the team although they still trail/good for his BABIP
4. He hits a walk off homer to win the game – Great for the team/bad for his BABIP. I know some of you will jump on this point to say that HR’s are excluded from the formula altogether and you would be correct. However, I would argue that they are unfairly excluded and I’ll demonstrate that point with the following example.

Now for a real world example, here are 2 all-star players from 2010.

Player #1 – stats that factor into BABIP
587 ab, 183 hits, 42 hrs, 76 K’s, and 6 SF.

Player #2
680 ab, 214 hits, 6 hrs, 86 K’s, and 1 SF.

So which player had the better season, the guy with the extra 31 hits or the guy who hit 36 more hrs while striking out 10 less times?

Most people would take player #1, unless they are using BABIP since player #1 (Albert Pujols) had a BABIP of .297 and player #2 (Ichiro) was at .368.

So how do you raise Albert’s BABIP to bring him closer to Ichiro? Easy, first take his additional 36 hrs and make them singles and his new BABIP becomes: 183-6/587-76-6+6 = .346 babip

And now add a few extra strikeouts to his total to also match Ichiro’s 86.
183-6/587-86-6+6 = .353 babip.

So which version of Albert Pujol’s is the better hitter, the slap-hitter who strikes out more often or the 42 hr guy getting ready to make \$30M per year? Problem with using BABIP for hitters is that it was devised as a DEFENSIVE measure. It was an attempt to quantify how well a team plays defensively based on balls that are put in play.

2. I mean no disrespect but you have zero understanding about how to use BABIP.

It is NOT a measure of “who is a better player” or which is a better play for a team.

It is solely a measure of how often a hit occurs when the ball is put into play and a defender has a chance to record an out. That is why walks, strikeouts and homers are removed from both the numerator and denominator. Those plays (2 good and one bad) do not have an outcome that is impacted by defense.

The stat simply is a measure of, when a ball is put into play and a def next has a chance, what is the probability of a base hit. As you would guess, line drives have the highest BABIP. And ground balls have the lowest. Meaning grounders are more likely to be turned into an out by a defender than a line drive. This is logical.

Across the mlb, 30% of all balls put in the field of play are a hit. Small variations (like a .315 BABIP) are not material. Large variations, such as an elite power and speed hitter like BRUCE Harper with a BABIP of 80 points below his career BABIP means he is having an unlucky season. Especially if his ground ball rate and line drive rate is near his career levels.

That is all the stat tells us. It is not the measure of a good player or bad player.

3. 3up3kkk says:

I fully understand the measure. The point of the research was to refute those who were claiming at that time that a high BABIP was better than a low BABIP.

Apparently we agree that BABIP is not a measure of which player is better or worse. Where we disagree is in the claim that a player with a high BABIP is lucky vs. a player with a low BABIP is unlucky. Harper’s low BABIP this year doesn’t necessarily indicate that he’s being unlucky but rather that he might be making weaker contact and Moniak’s higher BABIP might just mean that he’s hitting the ball harder, not being lucky.

4. no one said “a higher BABIP is better than a lower BABIP.” So not sure whom you are refuting. Based on your other comments, I honestly don’t believe that you understand the stat. But whatever. Believe that Moniak hits the call harder than Harper if you want.

5. Romus says:

Perhaps gentleman it may be helpful in yuor discussion, if you contacted one of the key people who pioneered the BABIP logic and get his interpretation.
Voros McCracken.

6. Romus says:

7. 3up3kkk says:

Really, you know what no-one said? As I said, I did the research many months ago back when Ruf was the star of the day. This has ventured way beyond the original point and is going nowhere so enjoy your day…

2. Catch – BABIP does NOT treat HR as an out. It removes Home runs from both the numerator and the denominator. It also removes strikeouts and walks from both. It is intended solely to look at stats of balls where a defensive player has a chance to make a play.

1. catch22hman says:

My apologies – I did know that and I misspoke and certainly did not properly convey my views. It really does just look at the narrow issue of how lucky or unlucky a player is on balls put in play. If people look at the statistic for that purpose alone, it’s obviously fine.

1. that’s all that it does. it isn’t a perfect stat. it is directional. a hitter the caliber of Bryce Harper is getting very unlucky this year. he isn’t hitting more ground balls. he isn’t hitting the ball softer. he has the same speed and power. he isn’t swinging at more out of zone pitches. but his batting average is awful. it helps explain that. that is all that the stat does.

2. Bryce Harper’s career BABIP is .315.

Try looking up stuff before you argue that someone else is wrong.

2. You can pretend to be an expert by looking at box scores and sabre stats all you want, but I’ve actually seen him play. In person. You’ve been grinding him to a pulp for 2 years now. Give it a rest. I’m tired of it. In recent weeks, another reader had also tried to report on his hard hit balls, to a similar response. I should have known better.

1. And at no point did I claim he was unlucky.

2. Andy J says:

Totally agree Jim. Analytics can be useful but seeing things live actually has value. I recall going to a single A game in Greenville, SC several years back (great mini fenway if you are ever in area). I was partly watching the game while having liquid refreshments with my nephew when I heard it. A pop in the catcher’s mitt much different than what the Redsox prospect sounded like in top of the first. I looked up to take note and saw this skinny guy firing fastballs while warming up, I noted the same thinking he may turn into something/ It was Luis Severino. I don’t pretend to be a scout or an avid prospect follower but sometimes eyes/ears tell you what you need to know.

3. I use data and well researched examples to objectively analyze a prospect. I present my logic in a clear and documented way. I would think that that approach would be welcomed on a blog that is largely driven by community engagement.

this is a community of non-experts. I don’t pretend be an expert. I often say “I am not a scout.” I just do research and make an informed opinion. I follow scouts on Twitter and post their views often.

Instead of telling me to “give it a rest” maybe use some data or scouting reports of actual experts to argue why my points are wrong.

The jump to the major leagues is enormous. The failure rate is extremely high. If some want to pretend that a decent month of A ball means something, no matter how often we demonstrate that SSS is meaningless…then go for it. But I don’t understand the response to shut down objective opinions which disagree with groupthink.

I will always give my views even if they are not what everyone hopes for. When I am wrong, I openly admit that I am wrong. But my posts always get a lot of reaction because they are informed and opinionated. That is good for this community.

1. DMAR says:

V1 you are a valued contributor here no doubt. I agree you bring valuable posts to the table but did you reread your post and did you think just for a moment that you might have trivialized the amount of time Jimmy puts in watching these guys?

I mean above all else here shouldn’t that stand above anything the rest of might present by way of a stat?

I know you didn’t mean any harm but it was a little snarky to say “hey Jim there’s a stat for that its called BABIP” as if Jim doesn’t know about BABIP…. but this frustration has been building for a while. Let’s not forget it wasn’t too long ago that the comments section was shut down.

I myself can be guilty at times of snark and negativity towards the FO so I’m not trying to sit on some high horse here. That said Jimmy deserves a little more than the rest of us.

1. I intended no disrespect to Jim. I deeply value his work. I took exception to one point that he made. i think that it is great that he watches these games live. and i value his views. hard hit balls get caught and weak hit balls get safe sometimes. that’s baseball. i don’t understand the point that we could just give someone a hit because he made hard contact. there is nothing in mickey’s stats that suggest this batting average is lower than it should be. i disagree with any analysis that suggests otherwise.

4. DMAR says:

Hey Jimmy you know we love you and all you do for us but in fairness I know I’ve asked before how MM has looked beyond the box score and maybe I missed it but I think today is the first time where I actually saw you say MM has been hitting the ball hard all year.

You have such a unique window into how these kids are doing if only for a couple of seasons before they move on. I appreciate you doing your best to share that with us UNPAID….

3. Hitter BABIP does not regress to league average and is controllable by the player’s skillset. Additionally minor league (especially Hi-A) BABIP is not directly correlated to MLB BABIP given the level of fielder in Hi-A is much below the level of the fielder in the majors.

1. 8mark says:

Seems to me that there are a considerable amount of moving variables when it comes to analytics. Someone clever enough can justify their position on just about any player’s skill set. Then someone just as clever can come along and refute it. I love the good old eye test with analytics as a sidekick to help distinguish the indistinguishable for simple guys like me who don’t know d*** about WAR and the like.

1. It is not “being clever” to note that a player hits a lot of ground balls and has a babip above the league average. those are objective facts that directly impact batting average. all stats are math. looking at the inputs to a math equation is a rational way to analyze something.

2. Kurdt Kobeyn says:

@8mark – you’ve seen a lot of discussion about the use of analytics in previous threads. analytics is a very good source of information, it is the “misuse” of the stat that really negates it’s importance. Like when The Guru keeps using WAR to measure player’s performances and do his comparisons — but the very definition of WAR doesn’t intend to use it that way.

there should be a delicate balance of stats vs eye test vs coach/player development evaluation to assess and project a prospect.

2. The average BABIP of the top 50 hitters in the FSL is .314

100% agree that BABIP goes down when you get to the majors given the better defense.

4. Gator says:

BABIP is really only useful when used to trend that specific player historical BABIP. Often is not good indicator when compared to league averages.

Zach Warren is looking very good. I would like to see him at a higher level. He is dominant at the Class A level. When he needs a strike out, he gets it. Hoping to see how he does at Clearwater.

6. Romus says:

Moniak hits 45% of his balls on the ground (which have a much lower batting average)…you are going to have to explain that to me.

It was my impression that players who hit from the left side, with above average speed, will normally have a higher BABIP since they will ‘leg’ out more infield hits than counterparts who hit from the right side of the plate who hit ground balls..
Someone like Herrera always fell into that category.

1. roccom says:

hello romus

1. Romus says:

rocco….welcome back….on parole?

1. roccom says:

No I am banned but wanted to say hello to you

1. FMBnG says:

1. Romus says:

Ok I can see that rationale….but BABIP was initially intended to eval pitchers and not batters.
Also when it comes to Moniaks’ hit directional distribution….45%-pull/25 %center/30%left side…indicates to me that over half his batted balls are middle to left side of the field, and with a 45% GB he has more of an opportunity to leg out more hits.
And I am not even aware if any shifts were employed in any of his PAs

In any event, to me, it would be difficult to determine if Moniak has been lucky or unlucky.

1. … unless you’re here and see how many hard hit balls he puts into play, both in the air AND on the ground.

1. Romus says:

That is a fair point and probably the most accurate evaluation,
….also Harry, one of the posters who has seen the Threshers often, said the same just last week..

2. Tom B says:

With your having seen MM in person so much, do you think he’s on track to hit AA next year?

1. Kurdt Kobeyn says:

I don’t see any reason why MickeyMo will not be AA next year. I was asked before why I still have MickeyMo high at #12 in my mid-year rankings —- this is because I read an article where the Phillies still believe that MickeyMo has the necessary skill set to be a major leaguer. Given the strong recent performance by MickeyMo, his development/promotion will continue as expected, finish the year in A+ then start next year in AA.

I don’t normally form conclusions on minor league stats unless the stats matched the eye test or the projection of a prospect.

2. Daniel says:

I’ve wondered how MM compares to another highly discussed prospect on this site, Carlos Tocci.

3. Handzus says:

Tocci was better, statistically, at the same age/level. When Tocci first got to Hi-A I believe he was in his age 19 season, though he began the year with Lakewood. Moniak is in his age 20 season. They put up similar numbers at that point; Tocci hitting .258/.296/.313 for an 86 wRC+. Moniak currently has a .255/.287/.360 line for an 82 wRC+. They walked at about the same rate but Tocci struck out considerably less. Tocci repeated the level in his age 20 season and improved to .284/.331/.362.

That’s part of the story. Moniak has shown more power and projects to have more than Tocci in the future. Plus Moniak is on a roll and when the season is over his second half numbers may carry a lot more weight than what he did in the first half.

3. Ok. you win. he is a great prospect. I give up.

2. “BABIP was initially intended to eval pitchers and not batters.” << Where did you read this? I have not heard this at all. It is a valuable tool for both for the exact same reason.

1. Kurdt Kobeyn says:

i also disagree with Romus statement, unless he means that BABIP is more important when evaluating pitchers than hitters since the pitchers have no control over what happens to a ball once it is put in play.

1. Romus says:

KuKo……”BABIP is likely more important when evaluating pitchers because they have almost no control over what happens to a ball once it is put in play.
A pitcher can control their strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and through those, the number of balls they allow to be put into play, but once the ball leaves the bat, it’s out of their hands…as yuo mention.
BABIP is influenced by defense and luck, which means the number of hits a pitcher gives up is influenced by things outside of their control. And if hits are somewhat outside of a pitcher’s control, so will their runs allowed totals”

2. Kurdt Kobeyn says:

@romus – so your 2nd paragraph confirmed what I said. I see a lot of people who use BABIP to evaluate a hitter. Luck and defense is something beyond a batter and pitcher can do so I will still prefer to use wOBA, ISO, SLG, etc in assessing a batter.

3. Romus says:

KuKo…I am wearing thin on this discussion.
Go to the top…..arrow over to “Glossary”
Click on Glossary.
Why do you think they list ‘BABIP” under the Pitching Stats and not under the “Batting’ Stats.?

4. Romus says:

KuKo……I also do agree with you in that using ISO/slash/ wOBA….are more useful in evaluating a hitter.

5. Kurdt Kobeyn says:

@romus – no need to argue further. as i mentioned above, i prefer wOBA, ISO, SLG over BABIP so no need to really argue about it.

Also, my statement of “pitchers have no control over what happens to a ball once it is put in play” is also based on Fangraphs definition.

2. Romus says:

Batting average on balls in play
In baseball statistics, Batting average on balls in play (abbreviated BABIP) measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits, or how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits, excluding home runs.[1] BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain—much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot flukey seasons by pitchers, as with other statistical measures; those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to decline in the following season.

A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on a number of factors including the quality of the team’s defense (e.g., a team with an exceptionally bad defense might yield a BABIP as high as .315) and the pitching tendencies of the pitcher (for instance, whether he is a groundball or flyball pitcher).[2][3] While a pitcher’s BABIP may go up and down in an individual season, there are distinct differences between pitchers’ career averages.

The equation for BABIP is:

{\displaystyle BABIP={\frac {H-HR}{AB-K-HR+SF}}} BABIP={\frac {H-HR}{AB-K-HR+SF}}

where H is hits, HR is home runs, AB is at bats, K is strikeouts, and SF is sacrifice flies.

1. That doesn’t say what you said that it says. but whatever. believe what you want. if you want to believe that babip is irrelevant for hitters, then go for it.

2. Romus says:

V1….you win…I give up.
The original premise you opined was :
“In summary, Moniak has NOT been unlucky this year. If anything, he has been a bit lucky to have his .255 batting average based on his periferal stats.”
….I disagree.

7. On another subject . . . I have to give Mitch Walding a ton of credit. He had a tough go of it in the majors in very few at bats, but when he was demoted he didn’t go down and sulk. He went down as a man on a mission to show the big league team that he’s a real talent and that he has a future as a big leaguer. Walding went crazy in AAA in July with a 1.147 OPS and he leads the IL in OPS (Meneses – another good bat, is second). I realize he’s getting a little old as a prospect and I realize that there’s too much swing and miss but AAA Lehigh Valley is not an easy hitting environment. By way of example, Darin Ruf and Dom Brown never hit very well in Lehigh Valley for long stretches and other guys totally flamed out there (Rizzotti, Andrew Pullin). I don’t know if Mitch Walding will ever get real playing time as a major leaguer, but I wouldn’t rule it out and I would rule out the possibility that he ends up being a solid second division regular somewhere. It may take him a year or so to adjust to big league pitching – but Mitch has now proven himself in the minors. I certainly hope and expect that Mitch will be recalled in September and he gets some at bats. After years in the wilderness he has legitimately made himself into a bona fide big league prospect.

Absolutely electric month for Corney Randolph .369/.459/.512 14 BB to 10 K. He was born in 1997.

1. Yes, he is very young for AA and had a great month. My same views apply to him as Moniak. I will ignore the first half and focus on his performance in his second half.

9. Eagleye5 says:

I also have been wondering about Vineland’s own Zach Warren, racking up the Ks in Lakewood. 4 or 5 arms from the Lakewood pen have moved to A or AA yet Warren remains, IMO we wont know anything until he at least gets to Clearwater and even then it will not be enough info until he gets to Reading, He is 6’6″ LH so Im sure he is a terror on LH batters.

10. I am excited for Moniak, and promised early not to criticize him and let the year play out. I think raising his BA like he has is cause to hope he is on the right track. Good for him!

11. DMAR says:

Oh Mickey your so fine your so oh never mind. I’m really happy for the kid as I said 110X he didn’t draft himself 1:1.

DLS seems to be taking a little heat around here for a bad start so as his champion let me just remind you guys the kid is 22 in AAA even with the bad outing his WHIP is still just 1.16 his hits/9 still just 7.4 and his K rate is a very respectable 8.4.

Look at the 150 IP he had last year in San Antonio at AA where he spent the entire year and tell me what you see as it compares to this season.

12. danurda8888 says:

Guys, a bad start or even two or three bad starts by Suarez and De Los Santos is not cause for caution. Its not like Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Jacob DeGrom, etc were 20-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the minors. I am not comparing those guys, but you get the point; its not a big deal unless it becomes a trend and I don’t see it happening with either of those guys.

13. Tom Brunansky says:

Mickey Mo on fire!!!!!

14. Jin Yang says:

Spirited debate today boys. Go Mickey Mo

1. SWFL Frank says:

Jin,

Yes. Spirited, informed debate from different perspectives. It’s one of the things that makes PhuturePhillies so great.

Jim, V1, Romus, thanks. I learn a lot here.

One thing I think we all agree upon, and which V1 has mentioned: if Mickey Mo continues sustained results in the second half, if bodes well for his future.

Go, Mickey!

15. DMAR says:

I often wonder about strange things like what if we took Gowdy at 1:1 or some other pitcher that wound up in Gowdy’s injury boat and Mickey where we took Gowdy….

1. Romus says:

DMAR…I always wonder what would have happened if Ruben in 2011 took Mookie in the 2nd round vs Roman…..both had similar profiles coming out of southern HSs.
It will drive you crazy however

1. DMAR says:

True story Romus that would have been the way to go and you certainly have to go back and study drafts.

It’s how you keep analytics on your FO staff. If players are measured by stats shouldn’t the guys picking them be too?

2016 was a very interesting draft in hindsight: Senzel, Corey Ray, Kyle Lewis, Alex Kiriloff, Rutherford, Gavin Lux and Hudson Potts

1. Romus says:

I am guilty of this….Monday morning quarterbacking is easy.
In fairness, every team has their share of oversights.
I am not sure evaluating an analytical team. like Philadelphia Andy Galdi’s group, based on successful drafted players who reach the majors. is always the best way criteria to use. So many events happen to prospects along the way. that eventually factor into their end point.

16. roccom says:

Romus you really confused me with the stats, I have a headache

1. Romus says:

rocco…I thought you were banned? That was certainly a light sentence.

1. roccom says:

I am, don’t know how this one got thru. take care my8

17. Baseball Oldie says:

To many of the followers of the Phillies minor leaguers, the players are nothing more than their statistics on paper. But in reality, they are young human beings that are working hard to advance in their careers, no different from any other person that is a reader or following here. What is really hard, is to try to define a player just based on their stats. Too many have never even seen a Moniak, Randolph, or any of the other 300 players in this organization even play, and yet some of these so-called Phans, will just rip into these players based purely on their stats.

I just often wonder how some of the Phans on this site would fare if their job performance were as transparent as the players they seem to rate on this site. I’m cool with objective reviews of players. I struggle when I see some Phan that may or may not have ever even played the game, trash a player based soley on their stats.

1. NL says:

That is professional sports and that is what these kids sign up for. Nobody forces anybody to read this site. In fact I would strongly recommend that Phillies minor league prospects do not read this or similar sites if they feel like they are not going to like what they read.

If somebody is too sensitive to read criticism on this site imagine what it will be like when they get to the Bigs. I can just see somebody’s father complaining to a Philly or NY or Boston sportswriter to lay off the criticism of his kid.

2. These players are professional athletes in some cases paid multiple millions. Offering objective, data based critique of a pro athlete is perfectly reasonable in my view. If a player gets upset by an armchair GM’s view on a prospect blog, then they have bigger issues. Opinions are like a**holes. Take it all with a grain of salt. It is nothing more than silly sports banter.

3. One other point. I have not seen any examples of a poster insulting the person. We make objective criticism of their baseball skills. But nothing attacking the individual.

18. TrollU says:

Our old friend jimmy Cordero has received a call up to the Nationals. Apparently he’s been lighting AAA on fire.

1. BT35 says:

I saw that. Forget who we got for him?

19. Baseball Oldie says:

Who said anything about players reading the comments of posters on this site or players getting upset about what is written here? I doubt any players waste time reading what people post. I imagine all the players care about is the feedback they are getting from their coaches.