2018 Post Draft Discussion; June 27th

The 2018 Draft Tracker is current as of today (6/27/2018).  It includes signing dates and bonus amounts as reported by MLB, plus a couple additional signings (without bonuses) that they haven’t reported yet.

The Phillies have signed 31 of their 38 draft picks.  The earliest round pick not signed is #15, high school RHP Daniel Carpenter.

The Phillies have spent a known $9,107, 900 on these players.

They have signed all 8 of their picks from the first ten rounds.  Eastman is reported to have received full slot.  This brings their bonus expenditure to $9,301, 425.

The Phillies have exceeded their bonus allotment of $8, 858, 500.  However, the additional room provided by the “5% above allotment”, gives them $193, 525 remaining that they can spend before penalties.  Those dollars are applicable when a prospect beyond the tenth round signs for over $125,000.

#17 LHP Keylan Kilgore from Wichita State has signed, is in Clearwater, and has been assigned to a team.

#40 RHP Waylon Richardson from Kankakee CC signed per his announcement on social media.

Those not signed include –

  • #15, Daniel Carpenter – he is commited to Central Arizona
  • #21, Jake Smith – he is committed to UNC-Wilmington
  • #28, Jonathan Jones – 2-sport HS player
  • #33, Jake Kinney – declined, attending FSU
  • #37, Ryan Rijo – juco, committed to Abilene Christian
  • #38, Stephen Jones – junior pitcher at Samford
  • #39, Matheu Nelson – declined, attending FSU

I will continue posting a 2018 First Year Player Draft thread as long as we need one for draft discussions.

 

68 thoughts on “2018 Post Draft Discussion; June 27th

  1. Carpenter (15), Kinney (33) and Rijo (37) were in CBP as guests of the Phillies yesterday (Tuesday) – given hats, jerseys, etc.. Carpenter’s mother posted 20-odd photos to her Facebook account – Carpenter with Klentak, Carpenter with Ryan Howard, etc.

    1. I posted this about a week ago, but since you’re reporting Jake Kinney was at the Carpenter Complex yesterday, I think it bears repeating.

      I know Kinney has already said, “Thanks … but … no thanks.” to the Phillies.

      However … if the Phillies even offer the kid 175 thousand dollars, he ought to think long and hard before turning it down. Here’s why:

      1. Even though he’s a JUCO player, he’s actually 21 YO. He graduated HS in 2015. He started his career at a Division II school (Florida Southern). He red-shirted his first year there, and played his second year at that school before transferring to Tallahassee CC this year.
      2. In his two seasons of college ball (Div II & JUCO), he’s been strictly used as a reliever. I am assuming at FSU, Kinney will continue to be used out of the bullpen.
      3. A 175 thousand dollar bonus is equivalent to a 8th round pick/slot.
      4. For the most part, college relievers don’t get picked before the 8th round. Most get drafted on day 3 (if at all).

      All that said … if Kinney turns down 175 thousand dollars this year and re-enters the 2019 draft as a 22 YO reliever … he’s probably looking at a 50 thousand dollar loss (at the very least). When you throw in the fact that he will be on the hook for some portion of his tuition at FSU and the threat that he could suffer an arm injury … why not take the Phillies money right now ?

      1. Hinkie…has $175K been the rumor offering to him?
        If so, agree….that would be foolish of him to turn that down.
        What do yuo think would be the lowest the Phillies could go to get him to forego the FSU commitment?

        1. I don’t know what they’re offering Kinney. I do think the FSU commitment is worth something, but the fact that he’s over aged and a reliever limits his bonus demand. The 175 thousand dollars I suggested is just a guess.
          They do still have 193 thousand dollars left to spend. I think (28th rounder) Jonathan Jones is being offered the same thing (29th rounder) Jaylen Smith and (30th rounder) Brandon Ramey got. That’s slot (125 thousand). That would mean the Phillies have 193 thousand dollars and three arms left to spend it on: (15th rounder) Daniel Carpenter, (21st rounder) Jake Smith, and (33rd rounder) Jake Kinney. They could offer Kinney and Carpenter (who has a JUCO commitment) 175 thousand each, and still pay Smith (who has a commitment to UNC Wilmington) 215 thousand dollars.

        1. Not life changing money but it would probably be enough to pay off his college debt with some left over.

          1. Except that with a bonus of $175,000 he’s unlikely to see as much as $150,000 of that. Figure he’ll be paying some sort of representative between 5% -10% of that (no longer tax deductible) and about $20,000 in federal income tax. I believe he is a resident of Florida so there’s no state income tax, so he sees between $140-145 K of that. (Not that it wouldn’t be significant, but people need to remember that net income, not gross, is what you can spend.)

        2. Says you. There are plenty of people in their 20’s like me who graduated college/grad school with over $100k in student loan debt. Now, my situation is a little unique in that I actually had a full-ride to grad school but messed up and then got saddled with all that debt, but the end result is still the same: years of scraping just to get by while all the money I could have been putting toward savings gets thrown at my debt instead. So having a house, car, and even a family all will most likely have to be put on hold. But yea tell me $175k isn’t life changing money haha You can’t sit on that forever, obviously, but at the very least it gives you the freedom to do some things with your life like maybe buy a house, travel, set savings aside, etc. Anyway, back to baseball…

      2. “I posted this about a week ago, but since you’re reporting Jake Kinney was at the Carpenter Complex yesterday, I think it bears repeating.”

        These guys weren’t at the Complex; they were at Citizens Bank Park. We have no information that any of them HAS signed – but the Phils are obviously still actively pursuing all three.

        1. Sorry about that. I misread your post. For me, it’s even better that they were in Philadelphia. Kinney lives in Lakeland so it wouldn’t really be a big thing for him and his mother to take a relatively short drive over to Clearwater. The fact that he (and Carpenter and Rijo) made the long trip to Philly shows a real interest in signing.
          OTOH … the fact that Jake Smith hasn’t made a visit (that we know of) may say something about the Phillies chances of signing him.

          1. The other thing I meant to post was Colton Eastman was in Philadelphia for a couple of days (?) just before he signed. I’m feeling pretty positive about Rijo (who I think I read is a Phillies fan), Carpenter, and Kinney.

          2. Yeah, well, my post did say “Carpenter” a lot! 🙂 Fingers crossed on all three of ’em.

  2. Pleasantly surprised with this year’s draft as we did not have 2nd or 3rd pick. Alvarez really did some creative drafting after Alec Bohm who could be a great pro player.

    1. Agree with Philabaltfan. With the addition of a second GCL team, Almaraz made a concerted effort to find projectable HS and JUCO pitchers to fill the two rosters. This organization has done a really good job of developing arms over the past few years. Almaraez drafted a lot of young, tall, thin pitchers with room to grow. He started with Gabriel Cotto (6’5″, 175) and Dominic Pipkin (6’4″, 160) on day two and continued with kids like Daniel Carpenter (6’6″, 185) Tyler McKay (6’6″, 180), Jake Smith (6’5″, 168), Brandon Ramey (6’3″, 170), and Jake Kinney (6’7″, 220) on day three.

    2. Johnny A.’s scouting philosophy is based on sound fundamentals and not on ceiling. Unless a prospect suddenly breaks out, this scouting philosophy often results to low ceiling high floor types of players and prospects. Gowdy is the only high risk high reward prospect that Johnny A. drafted.

      With the Phils closer to contention and Sal A.’s hits in the IFA, Johnny A. is taking some risks with his choices — IMO, one of the reasons on drafting high projectable prospects is for the Phillies to develop high ceiling prospects who can be used as part of a trade package to acquire an established player.

      GMs loves to acquire toolsy and high ceiling prospects are trade returns — toolsy and high ceiling are something that Johnny A. never prioritize in his last 3 drafts.

      1. Not sure what you are trying to say, as parts of your post seem to contradict, but the statement “Gowdy is the only high risk high reward prospect that Johnny A. drafted” is simply not correct.

        Dom Pipkin is the epitome of a high ceiling, high risk prep pitching prospect, and one could say the same for Logan Simmons as a position player. Odds are against both these guys, but they have loud tools and high ceilings.

        1. @bak – look at my last sentence. I’m referring to the last 3 drafts when I mentioned about the high risk high reward prospect – so that’s only Gowdy and doesn’t include Simmons and Pipkin.

          In the 2nd paragraph, I mentioned about a change in draft philosophy by Johnny A. taking some risks thus the Simmon, Pipkin and some projectable arms.

          1. OK, that helps, thanks. I normally start with the 1st paragraph when I read a post and go from there; hence my initial confusion. 🙂

  3. Congrats to Listi and now Seabold on being the first from last year’s draft to make it to AA. We only have 3 guys at Williamsport so far from this year’s draft. From Jim’s last comment, it sounds like that number will grow shortly.

  4. The MLB.com Draft Tracker reports 40th round pick Waylon Richardson has signed for 75 thousand dollars. https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/phillies
    Like still unsigned 33rd round pick Jake Kinney, Richardson is an over aged (21 YO) JUCO RHRP. Not sure if this means Kinney is being offered a similar bonus. Though, Kinney has a FSU commitment. Don’t think Richardson had anything like that.

    This season, Richardson only appeared in 3 games (all in relief) for Kankakee CC. He totaled 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 9 K. He was more active last season: 27 G (again, all out of the BP), 9 saves, 30 IP, 1 ER, 17 H, 8 BB, 39 K.
    Here’s a story from three years ago announcing his signing his letter of intent to play for Kankakee CC http://www.kpcnews.com/sports/latest/advanceleader/article_6e30dcf1-f049-5716-a849-bd5f0d99d256.html

    1. According to the same source, #17 Keylan Killgore received $175K. Killgore is a lefty reliever from Wichita State.

      1. Well … that Killgore bonus is surprising.
        He’s the only LH college pitcher they drafted. I guess they wanted to make sure he signed. Anyway … that leaves the team just $143,500 left. I would guess that means (21st rounder) Jake Smith is unlikely to sign.

    2. BTW … Waylon Richardson is the first Phillies’ 40th round draft pick to sign with the team in the era of the 40 round draft (2012-today) and the first since 2004. That year, U of Delaware RHP Michael Mihalik signed after being selected in round #40. Mihalik lasted just one year in the Phillies organization/pro baseball.
      In case you were wondering … No, the Phillies did not manage to sign their 40th round pick in 2015. That’s the year, the team did Tom McCarthy a solid, and took his son (Tommy jr.). McCarthy was just the icing on the cake. They used most of their final picks that year on Griffin Morandini (son of Mickey), Beau Brundage (son of Dave), and Andrew Amaro (nephew of Ruben). Can you even imagine what the draft room looked like late day three of 2015 ? The amateur scouting staff, who spent 12 months canvassing the country to unearth real prospects, sitting around watching RAJ and his posse high-fiving and yucking it up.

      1. Jim … I didn’t know Richardson had TJ surgery. According to his stats, he pitched the final out (got the save) in Kankakee’s JUCO WS win in the 2017 season. He then pitched in three games this April. From this timeline, it would appear he must have went under the knife in May. I’m not a doctor, but if this timeline is correct, having Richardson throw this fall may be a little aggressive. I know Kevin Gowdy had his TJ nine months before Richardson (last August), and (from what I understand) he’s not supposed to throw until instructs, as well.

        1. I know. But those are the facts as he related them to me yesterday. Apparently he had TJ and came back early. The Phillies didn’t like how soon he started throwing and shut him down. Instructs may be a pipe dream.

          1. Oh, I also have photos of Carpenter signing. I’m going to hold off on making an announcement until I get a second confirmation. But, it looks like he’s in the fold, and I can at least share that here. Off to the Complex!.

            1. jim I don’t know if you saw my Question. Do you see anything different in Williams , And why is he playing first? he is really coming on

            2. Nice JP!! Amongst the remaining non-signees, Carpenter is the one I hope they can throw all the remaining $$.

              Not high on Ryan Rijo, but if can sign at $125K, Johnny can already it a day!

  5. just wanted to express my appreciation to Jim and the knowledgeable PP commenters for the excellent draft coverage. Obviously the 30th is not yet over but since Carpenter’s money isn’t included in the draft tracker one (well I) might think the Phillies spent pretty much every cent available to them and I look forward to seeing how the new team members start out!

    1. The Phils have about $143k available in the “bonus pool plus 5%” that they can spend without incurring any penalty other than money. They could offer a single unsigned draftee (Carpenter, Smith, etc.) about $268k (the available pool money plus $125k) – or they could try to spread that $143k to a couple of guys, offering each a bit less than $200k. The deadline for signing is next Friday, July 6th – at 5 pm EDT, i think.

  6. so Madrigal signs for 560k more at pick 4 (full slot) than Bohm at pick 5 (1.1 under slot). interesting.

  7. Can someone remind me…. the year before last I believe it was, the Phillies had a player they drafted and didn’t sign by the deadline, sign at the beginning of the next year. How was that possible?

    1. If a draftee has no eligibility left in College, he can be signed up until the day before the next year’s draft. If a guy is hurt, the team might like to see how his rehab is going before they sign him. I think the guy your thinking of is Alex Wojciehowski, the senior sign from Minnesota Duluth. He signed in March of the following year. I’m not sure why saving $5K or so would be important to the team but they can wait on this type of draftee a full year before they sign him.

      1. Thank you Bellman! So, do you know, after the signing period ends, does the drafting team still have exclusive rights? In other words, is the player as a senior with no eligibility still limited to negotiate only with the drafting team?

        1. I believe the rights are exclusive to the drafting team during that period. They could probably renounce their rights and then another team could scoop him up.

  8. Today is the last day teams can ink draft picks.
    Jim … any additional info to confirm (or refute) a Daniel Carpenter signing ?

  9. Wonder if it means anything that the Phils official website still include Colton Eastman (and Waylon Richardson) as unsigned,

    1. I will guess it means nothing. That website is always behind on roster transactions to and from the big club. You can find out about Phillies roster transactions on this site far sooner than on the Phillies official website and the same holds for domestic and international signings.

    1. Thats good…he was adamant about FSU last month and pitching there….I guess money talks. 🙂

        1. Sounded like Carpenter had signed. Jim posted (further above) he had photos of Carpenter signing. He didn’t want to post the pics until he had further confirmation.

          1. thanks Hinkie! I saw JPs post like you said. I checked MLB Draft tracker and it’s probably and oversight error but MLB listed Daniel Carpenter and Brandon Ramey’s school as Martin Luther King HS in PA (instead of CA). I thought both prospects are local, but soon find out that they are CA kids.

  10. Looks like 2 first round picks will not sign this year. the #1 picks for Arizona (#25) and LAD (#30) have both indicated they are going to college…

    1. Not sure it looks good for Atlanta and Carter Stewart though alot of this seems like deadline posturing

      1. The issue appears centered around a wrist injury Stewart suffered in April.

        “Stewart explained what he considers a minor incident…..“I may not get to hit much after high school. . . (and) don’t know if I’ll be hitting much more this season. The other day, I swung too hard and had a little bit of a wrist issue.”

        Since the Brady Aiken incident, teams are now allowed to ask for medical records before making their selections but they may only conduct a physical after they formally make the selection. According to Callis, that’s when things changed.

        A wrist injury . . . .created concerns for the Braves after they viewed the results of his post-Draft physical….That’s when the negotiations began.”

  11. Here’s the only video of Jake Kinney on the mound that I could unearth. He wears #44 and you can see him beginning at the :39 mark.

    1. This means the team could have offered 208 thousand dollars to Daniel Carpenter or Jake Smith. Still waiting to hear if either of them signed.

    1. Per draft tracker unsigned apparently are #14, 21, 28. 37. 38 and 39! So your math is spot-on at…. 34 out of 38 picks!

      1. Did you mean #15 was unsigned? Wilkening was #14 and Carpenter was #15. Wilkening is on the Wmsprt roster.

        1. Great work – knowing what I meant when it was absolutely not what I wrote. Sorry – should have been #15 as you pointed out

    1. I think it means they signed more players for $125k than other teams – less senior signs after the 10th round. Teams can only exceed slot by 5% in the aggregate and no teams did that.

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