453 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of June 24, 2018

  1. The Phillies are 7 games over .500 and in a wild card spot, while getting below replacement level production from 3 of the 8 spots. Add on the awful defense from the left side of the infield. It is amazing that they are doing so well.

    Machado on this team would make a massive impact. It would remove a below replacement level guy and replace him with a 6+ WAR player. He is the perfect combination of fit and elite player.

    1. They have 7 more wins than losses, not 7 games over .500. With 75 games played 37.5 – 37.5 is .500. 44.5 wins is 7 over .500.

      1. I honestly don’t know why you would take the time to write such an irrelevant post. 41-34 is absolutely, without question 7 games over .500. If they lost 7 games in a row, they would be at .500. That is how baseball math works.

        But really, that is not the point worth discussing. The key point that i made is, they have 3 below replacement level players in their lineup and are still a wild card team. This is a team that screams “buyers” at the deadline. They have elite starting pitching. Most productive in the NL. Hopefully Neshek comes back and is productive out of the pen.

        If they add an elite player like Machado, they are a favorite for at least a wild card spot IMO but the division is winnable too.

        1. Agree that Machado would be a great addition. They shouldn’t give up the farm for him though. Baltimore needs to trade him. Let other teams overbid. If the Phillies offer isn’t the best this year, they can still go all in with FA. Alfaro is showing great improvements in his defense especially in pop time and framing. Hope he can cut down a little on his O-Swings and show a just a tiny bit more of in game power. I wouldn’t do anything to improve the catching position this year. As for the outfield, fishing for Trout in 2 years.

      2. Braves Phan…mathematically you are correct.
        A team is 60-40 and it is claimed a team is 20 games over .500…where as they are really only 10 games over a .500 record.
        But the media has decided to go with the better looking statistic.

          1. 8mark…..huh?
            not by the correct math.
            100 games played…a team is .500…what is their record? 50 wins-50 losses, I assume that is .500
            A team 52-48 is only two games over the .500 record…not 4 games.

        1. Media is really dumbing us down. Can’t explain 60-40 is 10 games over .500, but wants to use .500 winning percentage in a phrase to explain number of win differences over losses. It takes 2 wins to make up 1 game in the standings. Thus a team one game above .500 needs to lose 2 games to be at .500. 81-79 is ONE game above .500. It needs to lose 2 games to go down to .500.

          1. I can’t tell if you are trolling or just really really bad at math. But you are confusing two very different things. Games behind another team (which is what you are describing) is different than games below .500.

            If a team is 10 games back in the standings, they need a combination of 10 wins and another team losing 10 games to catch them. That is true.

            However, if a team is 10 games below .500, they only need to win 10 games to be at .500.

            The scenario in which you are describing is where team A is 10 games up in the standings. In which case, team A is 10 games above .500 and team B is 10 games below .500. In that case, team B would need to win 10 in a row and team A would need to lose 10 in a row to be tied. But that doesn’t affect the individual team’s record. Team B is still 10 games under .500.

            Math is hard. I get it.

            1. You are being kind – but are we really having a discussion about how math works regarding how many games above 500 a team is that has a 60-40 record? Seriously? It’s math and if someone doesn’t get it then we can’t help them with 7th grade math. Maybe we should ask Kyrie Irving to weigh in on his flat earth theory.

            2. Lol. You are right. It wasn’t even the point that I was making, which is this is a good team with 3 holes in the lineup. And adding Machado would materially improve our team.

        1. what they are doing is taking the total games played and adding it together. So 60-40 = 100 games. Then they determine what .500 looks like for 100 games, which is 50-50. They go back to the record and determine how many wins the record is over the .500 total. 60 is 10 more than 50, so 10 games over .500. .

          1. Pops…the media has been doing their brand of math for last 25 plus years ….why try to get them to change now.

            1. What’s that supposed to mean? That I’m wrong about a team that is 60-40 being 20 games over .500? I can do basic math.

            2. It was like the long discussion people had about projecting the Phillies wins. Newsflash – there’s a simple mathematical formula for that. I can’t help that people won’t search for these easy answers on the internet or are math deniers. I don’t debate math deniers. It’s pointless.

            3. No, it’s not more than basic math. A team that is 60-40 is, by definition, 20 games above .500.

              Now, a team that is 50-50 is ten games “behind” the team that is 60-40. The term “behind” has a specific meaning to it, however. It means how many games would that team have to win and the other team lose for the teams to be even. The answer to that very different question is 10.

              But it’s NOT the same question as how many games over 500 is a 60-40. The answer to that question is how many games would that team need to win to be at .500 and the answer is 20.

              Can we move on to non-math questions now? This was like trying to explain batting average to my 80 year old grandma who used to watch the Mets games in Queens. Now, THAT, was a challenge.

  2. Once again last night’s game was evidence crying out for bullpen help. Seranthony is human and probably needs to adjust as the league adjusts to him.

    Hopefully Franco “the Yankee killer” is okay. He also may be one piece that gets us a legit reliever (from SD?). And if he’s not okay, well – there may be some scrambling for at least a temporary replacement, unless Valentin’s paternity leave is brief. Walding seems overmatched at this point.

    1. According to what is being said today. Seranthony wouldn’t listen to his catcher and throw his fastball , to a guy coming off dl and not swinging good right now. He wanted to throw this slider. the kid should listen to his catcher.

  3. The Bp failed again throwing SD in every high leverage situation isn’t playing well. He’s a kid still , they need a proven vet closer . The nats didn’t sell the Farm for Herrera . San Diego Reliever Hand is not an option . They want Chapman like return.
    Saying that another series won on the road against the Nats is Very Good . This team is an interesting team . Over .500 is a real possibility the next WK is a hard schedule . However after that the schedule is really easy for a couple of weeks.

    1. yes, even if Neshek comes back healthy they need another option.

      i didnt like walking Soto because it gave SD no margin for error against a guy with great discipline, not to mention pride after a 19 year old gets walked to get to him. why not see if Soto is overly aggressive in a big spot rather than just walk him? but they might have lost anyway. overall a good weekend effort though.

      1. Nah Knapp hit a homerun over the weekend and double last night. He’s been getting better . Last yr he was solid . Do watch or listen to the game or just use the force. Lol

        1. If Knapp becomes a solid hitter again, great, trade him to an American League as a DH. He is half a player and cannot field his position, literally. Get another catcher who can throw someone out and doesn’t let a curve ball in the dirt roll to the backstop.

            1. Roccom, with you I agree. I am done watching Knapp butcher the position (Tim, he was never “solid”) and without a viable backup Alfaro with burn out. But if you want me to disagree then I will say that Knapp does not catch enough to justify his sub-par hitting. 😉

  4. It does look like we could be buyers in July for the first time in 7 years. However, this team is not winning a championship this year and shouldn’t sell out for a chance to play in a one game wild card game. Texas would seem like a trade good partner for us with Beltre, Diekman, and Hamels all being interesting pieces. Is it time for certain arms to become relievers to strengthen the bullpen? Anderson, VV, Kilome, etc? they don’t have to be permanent moves.

    1. Again I completely disagree with this “chance to play in a one game wild card” notion. If this team is buying, the premise should be to win the division outright. Every move that is made should bear that in mind. No half measures. Either sit tight or go after the NL east. Once you’re in, it all comes down to matchups and how well you’re playing heading into the post season.

    2. Now if the Phillies win the one game wild card game , they do have Nola .

      They also have a chance to win the Division . There beating good teams on the Road . If the Phillies had a closer they might have swept both the Cardinals and Nats.

      If the Phillies are Winning the Division or close to it in a month there buyers.
      The Braves and Nats aren’t great teams and have there warts .

      1. Tim.. Phillies need Hand. They have no hand right now.
        Though he blew the Pads game yesterday in extra innings.

          1. To answer Tim’s question … No. I would never give up any of my top prospects for Brad Hand. I would rather give up a lesser prospect for a rental (Diekman or Britton?) The Nationals didn’t have to give up anything of significance for Kelvin Herrera (who is also a rental).
            For the most part, relief pitchers are an unsteady breed. As bad as the Phillies’ crew of relievers looks right now, they’ll probably turn things around (for at least a while) in the not so distant future.

            1. I agree Hinkie that’s my pt. You can go after veteran closer like the Nats did alot cheaper then Brad Hand. Wait a little while for the market to play out. Btw Britton was bombed his first outing. The Braves and Red Sox scouts were there.

            2. Let’s see how Britton progresses over the next month. He along with Diekman and a few other BP arms are going to be available as rentals. They won’t cost too much (in prospects).

  5. With their 2018 performances so far, how high do we see Austin Listi Luke William’s putting themselves on our prospect map ….so to say?

    Top 30?

    1. Neither guy there yet. If Listi hits his way to AAA and Williams keeps hitting while taking the occasional walk and maybe gets a good scouting report thrown in, that could change.

    2. Not sure. So guys moving out of the top 30 that are currently in based on graduation would be Cozens (I’m assuming). Kinda guessing a few more traded. Regardless, is there more confidence in Listi than Jose Gomez, McKenzie Mills, JD Hammer. Nick Maton, Jhordany Mezquita, and Simon Muzziotti? Then factor in recently drafted Bohm, Eastman, Simmons . . .

      I’d move them ahead of the list above but also behind the just drafted. Fringe top 30. Listi has proximity and Williams was a highly drafted kid who hasn’t performed but if he’s figured something out with his power, I would think that significantly changes his outlook

  6. As much as I would love the Phillies to make the playoffs this season, I don’t think they should really do anything this deadline. They have the possibility to make the playoffs without any addition. Even if they did acquire a Machado and a reliever, I don’t think they make any noise, so what’s the point in selling farm pieces for a more likely than not playoff exit?

    Keep the young guys for off-season trades, sign Machado, let the kids take their bumps this season so you can go into 2019 season primed for a better run.

    I agree with what v1 said about the Phillies being in the hunt with below level performances from a few guys, however, I just don’t think now is the time because I don’t see players on this team on the opposite sides of that spectrum, We see more guys not living up to expectations and I truly don’t believe we’re seeing any guys exceeding. IF we don’t see guys exceeding yet they are in the hunt, the likelihood is they will be in a better spot next season when they have more guys being above average.

    Let the young kids grow this season, see what they have, if they make the post season as is (I wouldn’t mind a small BP move or even a Beltre move since those won’t cost any top 10 team prospects, maybe not even top 15) and then we see a 2019 season that’ll have them primed for a seriously run. I do believe that.

  7. Late post, but I live overseas, so when I was stateside earlier this summer, I made my way to an Iron Pigs game; it was my first time in a few years to actually see a minor league game live.

    Not so shocking observations: that line-up is devoid of prospects but De Los Santos made the drive worth it; hard not to like him; and he pitches quickly. I tried to sell my ticket on the Eshelman bandwagon, but couldn’t find a buyer, even for a nickel. Had a Darnell Sweeney bandwagon flashback, too, as he was playing for Buffalo….and batting eighth, hitting .220. Oh, and Jake Thompson just isn’t very good, either.

    Random note: I’ve been following baseball for 30+ years, and never knew minor league double-headers are only 7 innings per game. It was a great night for a couple games of baseball, that club level is worth the extra couple of bucks, plus I received the JP Crawford bobble-head.

    But my main take-away from the night is: I’ve switched sides on the Luke Heimlich debate. After reading that long-form SI article, which did a great job covering both sides of the debate, I was inclined to give him another chance. Not sold 100%, but at least enough to believe he deserves an opportunity.

    Though after seeing how many kids are at those games–probably half the crowd there had little to no interest in baseball, it was just a nice summertime activity for families–there’s just no way he can pitch in the minors. There’s kids on the field before the game, running bases between innings, in the dugout, and so on. Not that I believe he has a high chance for recidivism–the article put those odds at 2.5%–but, to a parent, a 2.5% chance is a monstrously high number, a needless risk with zero positive upside.

    It’ll be interesting to see what happens to Luke. He’s in a tough spot. If he admits what he did, and shows contrition, people might be more willing to accept him; he learned from his youthful mistake. But if he admits what he did, look out: there’s plenty of people who will never forgive him. Its a no-win situation.

    Then again, he put himself in that position, so my sympathy only runs so deep.

  8. I know this has been said before and that it would be a transition that would take time over the course of the season, but moving VV to the bullpen would make the most sense regarding solving these BP issues.

    VV clearly has great stuff, but he also hasn’t gotten past the sixth inning in a single game he’s pitched this year. Even if they had to send him down to LHV so he could adjust to becoming a reliever, it’d be worth it in the long run and they could give Enyel his much deserved shot. Not to mention they wouldn’t have to sacrifice any prospects for one of these guys from the Padres or Royals.

    1. But Brad Hand is an elite closer and can do the job better than anyone currently on the Phillies staff. If you don’t have to part with Sixto or Ortiz I’d do it.

    2. isn’t the league moving in this direction though? more specialty setup guys and starters only go 5-6?

      if you look at innings pitched per game started IP/GS on a team level it’s generally averaging 6 or less anyway?

      just read this stat “From 1974 to the present day, MLB starters have averaged an IP/GS below 7.0 IP in every season”

    1. He’s nuts basically if Ranger doesn’t work out Texas gets nothing in return. Eick hasn’t been healthy and Cozens and Gallo in the same lineup wow.

    2. That’s a really bad trade for Texas. And I think it’s fair to at least debate if Suarez has passed JoJo on the prospect list.

    3. I would assume this would be with us covering all of the salaries involved. I would assume Hamels might ask for his option picked up as well. This offer does sound really light but again, maybe it’s due to the money?

  9. I want to see MacKlentak step up to the plate. I don’t know what deal helps the team, and I am unwilling to part with our top prospects. A Playoff run is nice, and competing with the Braves does not seem like it should be that monumental of a task. I don’t think any acquisitions make us a WS contender, but I want to see this GM do something aggressive and positive. No need to wait until July 31.

    1. You want the GM to not give up any top prospect, you recognize this team isn’t a WS contender regardless, yet you want Matt K to do something aggressive and positive? Seems like that’s an impossible feat given the parameters you’re setting lol.

      Small moves, I’d be ok with but I wouldn’t classify that as being aggressive.

      1. I probably phrased that wrong. I don’t give up our top guys for MM because he doesn’t make us a ES favorite and it costs too much for a rental. I think a decent BP arm and a back up C help us in a Division and WC race. The aggressive part is doing it now not waiting until July 31

  10. By suggesting this trade, I am inviting the ire of many Cesarites but anyway, I would offer CeHe to Texas for Beltre and Hamels. (I doubt the Rangers would trade all 3 of their biggest chips by including Diekman since they would want to maximize their return.) Move Kingery (finally!) back to his natural position where he belongs and may thrive instead of being the square peg in the round hole.

    Hopefully Franco is physically sound after last night’s tumble over the 1b bag. If SD wants him, I wouldn’t hold out for Brad Hand but take another arm out of the Friars’ stronger bullpen.

    And lastly but not least, without giving up Sixto or Medina (our 2 top prospects), offer Baltimore 4 of our top 20 pitching prospects. Then add either of Altherr, Williams or Cozens.

    1. To me, this largely defeats the purpose of the trade. You don’t trade for a pennant race by trading away your current most valuable players. I love Kingery and believe in him long term, but right now, he’s nowhere near as good as Cesar.

      1. Agreed. Trading Cesar for two rentals is insane. Never happen. Cesar is a perennial 3-4 WAR second baseman, entering his prime years on a cheap contract. Those don’t grow on trees.

  11. How are things looking for the Rule 5 draft in December? If they need to free up several spots, shouldn’t they be looking to trade some prospects, not saying top ones but perhaps in a package type deal.

    1. The following noteworthy prospect will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time, unless the Phillies protect them.
      Eshelman, Thomas
      Rosso, Ramon
      De Los Santos, Enyel
      Mills, McKenzie
      Brito ,Daniel
      Gamboa, Arquimedes
      Llovera, Mauricio
      Garcia ,Edgar

      1. From that list Romus I would probably only protect DLS Mills and Rosso. The others are not likely to make an MLB 25 man.

        That said I expect some trades to happen that free up some 40 man space.

        1. DMAR..yes that makes sense.
          Though Edgar Garcia may be a bullpen guy for a team and they can stash him out there..

        1. rocco….Rosso has not even pitched in Hi-A yet!
          He is 22-years old in low A.
          Rarely do those guys get selected in the draft.
          IMO, i would protect Mills and De Los Santos, along with Eshelman when it comes to the starting pitchers on that list..

            1. Ha I’m about the delivery, Command & Control of every pitch . I see Pivetta CB is his most unhittable pitch NOT his FB.

  12. With Texas floating Beltre,Hamels and Diekman out there, I gotta say no to Hamels. Don’t think the Phillies need him, it’s stinks, but that is all nostalgia, good nostalgia, but the Phillies don’t need him. Will be another Santana/Hoskins situation. The Phils shouldn’t misplace the upcoming pitching talent, too many heading up and you still have Eickhoff coming off the DL soon enough.

    No to Beltre as well. I can see him coming here and getting hurt within the first week. Just no. Unless it is for low ceiling prospects.
    Diekman … ehhh, I could see that for reasonable price.

    Franco & others to SD for Hand I’d do. The package just can’t included Sixto. Might be paInful but I’m ready to move on from
    Franco and strengthen the bullpen, … the bullpen that was supposed to be a strength.

    Pivetta and VV look like they have arrived. Pivetta def has. He just can’t pitch In the rain due to his grip. vV I’ll wait another start or two but it looks like the light is coming on for him as well. Efflin, Eickhoff, and de los Santos will have fun battling out for
    The 5the starter spot

    1. Tac – Agree with your whole statement above except switch VV and Eflin.

      I think Hand is a great piece to add. He’s signed through 2020 with a reasonable option for 2021. That’s 3.5 years of control for one of the top left handed relievers in baseball who happens to have a history of handling the 9th inning of games….um YES PLEASE.

      1. Hand has been inconsistent, like many relievers…started the year very early bad…then great for a period of time…now he last 4 games seems he cannot buy an out. I would still try to get him….just avoid the overpayment

        1. Meh, he’s been very solid all year. He did not give up an earned run in the month of May. He’s giving up 6 in June, 2 in a non save situation coming in when the Padres were already losing. While he did give up those runs, that’s also not his role.

          He had a better year than Chapman last year. He’s worth 3-4 solid prospects.

          1. ‘While he did give up those runs, that’s also not his role’…say what!
            He is a pitcher….thats their main job….do not give up hits/walks leading to runs.

            What does he tell his manager….’don’t count those runs against me, i am not used to pitching in that inning’!

          2. When Sergio Romo started those game for the Rays….I do not think Cash told him …’don’t worry about runs, you are a starter today not a closer we will get those runs back later in the game’

            1. True but you are also taking my comment of a closer out of context with what the Rays are doing. Hand is a closer. He same into a losing game and gave up a few runs. His era shot up. but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been really good this year.

            2. I guess it is a moot point now…looks like he is going to be a Brave from what I am hearing

        2. I just don’t get all the love for Brad Hand. He’s a nice reliever on a bad team. IMO, he’s not a top tier closer. If the Padres want to swap him for Franco and a couple of mid tier arms (maybe something like Drew Anderson and Will Stewart), I’d be ok with that. However, it sounds like AJ Preller is looking for more.

          1. Agree about Hand. He could help, but isn’t worth a package that includes a higher ceiling pitching prospect like Medina or Morales.

    2. Beltre would be an immediate upgrade both defensively and offensively, why wouldn’t you want him when it’s only for the remainder of the year? Also Hamels stinks? Isn’t he pitching to an ERA in the mid 3’s in the AL, prob better than what Eickoff will give you when (if) he gets back, he would also be a LHP throwing a change up which is different that we have in the rotation right now. Would also allow VV to try out the pen. IMHO Diekman would be the guy outta the 3 that I WASN’T that interested in. Bc of Beltre and Hamels contract, if you agree to pick up all the money, you won’t (or at least shouldn’t) have to break the prospect bank for them.

  13. @ Romus funny how things work out . Frazier plays against VV tonight bet on scouts form both sides being there. Hope VV throws a gem .

      1. If I were Cashman I’d be saying the same thing . VV had too step it up tonight plus Yanks have other players like really good Relief pitchers ,Drury , etc.

    1. Sorry, I should have verified first. Someone texted me second hand, no pun intended. Hold off on that in the meantime. My apologies.

  14. I am a huge fan of John Stolnis and love his podcast and site, but last week he was throwing out JP Crawford and Medina for Brad Hand, and I almost lost my ish. Medina may be the closest thing to untouchable beside Sixto for me. I’d go Franco and a different arm for him. I’d love to see the Phillies try to float Cole Irvin out there. He’s done an awesome job this year and credit to him, but in terms of pure stuff he doesn’t compare to the rest of the Phillies pitching prospects. I’d like to see if they can get a GM to overrate him based on AAA stats. Could Franco and Irvin be enough for Hand? Franco and Suarez is a better deal for SD, but I wonder if they could keep Ranger by throwing in a low minor leagues project?

    I understand that bullpen is a weakness right now, but I would never be ok with parting with a legitimate top prospect for a pen arm unless its an Andrew Miller situation where that is the last piece before the team is a legit WS contender. You can find bullpen arms. Instead of trading the farm for Andrew Miller, why not look for the next Andrew Miller…failed starter with great stuff who teams gave up on.

    FYI I think Drew Anderson could be a good bullpen piece right away. I actually think de los Santos could be dominant but you don’t want to stunt his growth at this point and take him out of the AAA rotation.

  15. Instead of trading for Hand, who is probably going to cost a lot, I’d rather call up Cole Irvin and put him in the bullpen. Matt Winks reported before the year that he can hit 94-95 “when he needs it”. If he can sit 93-94 out of the pen, that’s the same velocity Hand has. He’s been dominant against lefties in the minors. This year they’re hitting.189/.247/.256 off of him and his OPS against lefties has been in the .500s each of his three seasons in the org.

    He’s 24 and a finished product. He’s behind Enyel and probably Eickhoff (when he returns) as a replacement starter, so it’s not likely he’s going to be needed in that role this year. I think it’s the best way to use him at this point.

        1. Otero – He’s a reliever now so his BB rate will be higher than it was when he was a starter since he’s throwing less innings. He does have a BB/9 of 4.3 but even Chapman has a 4.0. He’s just not locating well at all right now. He was so good a month ago and now he’s pretty bad. I have complete faith he’ll turn it around though.

          1. Also there are other alternatives when it comes to lefites in the pen….Austin Davis, Zac Curtis, and Hoby Milner…..all on the 40 could get the call-ups.
            And all have troubles with consistency.
            Irvin will need to be added at some point to the 40, his protection year is 2019.

  16. I am glad we have Cozens back with that power coming off the bench. He should get some late inning pinch hitting opportunities.

  17. Guru most of the Bp isn’t don’t there job. I mean it was SD against Carpenter and Murphy now Morgan . It’s like there taking turns blowing games.
    The Nats lost 11 0 against Tampa Bay.the Braves barley beat Cinn.

    1. Morgan has had a terrible year (5.25 FIP, 1.6 WHIP). If Neris deserved to be sent down, then Morgan should be sent down also.

  18. Hoskins needs to focus. He needed to put the ball in play yet strikes out. Compounds it by not running to first to draw a throw. (Stuff happens. You never know what happens.) Then he reacts to something a fan said to him about hustling I assume. Hoskins not once but twice came to the top step to come back at the fan. I was critical of Nick Williams in AAA for not running out a dropped third strike. Williams seems to have gotten the message. Hoskins needs to focus on his job and not worry about coming back at fans. This is Philly. Fans know the game and want it played correctly. Hopefully Hoskins matures. Never good to tell customers that they can go to the plate or go home. Fans know he has a God given talent. Fans pay to see that talent and also the effort that goes with it.

    1. I was amaze watching the game last night. How many fans aren’t watching the game. But watching there phone. How can a fan not want to see the yankees when Judge is hitting.

    2. Amen to that.
      Jimmy Rollins (a way more tenured player/franchise icon) got benched for doing the same thing Hoskins did last night. Yelling at a fan who was telling him to show some hustle was not a good look for Hoskins.

        1. You know what’s a good look? Taking immediate personal responsibility and apologize and answering everything asked about it right away.

          1. Yes. Hoskins did the right thing (apologized) after doing a dumb thing (not running out a ball that got past the catcher) and then compounding that dumb thing (getting into a verbal confrontation with a fan).
            I’m just saying Jimmy Rollins and even Jayson Werth were both players with a lot more time served that caught way more grief for not running out a ball or yelling at fans.
            As a matter of fact, I’m pretty sure I remember an incident a few weeks ago when Hoskins lectured Odubel for not running hard. You can excuse it, but (I’ll stand by my original post) it’s not a good look.

    3. It was a Yankee fan, from what was reported, who made a remark to Hoskins as he was going down the dugout steps.

        1. No…not sure…just heard it from an analyst this morning.
          Hoskins just needs to ignore that stuff.
          He did say Yankees fans travel well and he likes the atmosphere when the house is jumping like last night.
          Did you ever see Camden Yards when the Yankees are in Baltimore…same thing as last night at the Bank.
          Yankees fans everywhere….even at the Nationals Park last week.
          And of course Citi Field vs the Mets.
          You can’t seem to get rid of them.
          I wonder if they inundate Fenway like they did at Citizen’s Bank.

      1. I’m not sure who Hoskins was getting into it with. I was in my car last night and a guy called WIP. He said he was with the guy who Rhys was hollering at. He claimed they were Phillies fans.
        Who knows for sure ?

    4. I don’t mean to pile on, but Hoskins just can’t play LF. He has no range. That Sunday night game against the Nats, he dove for a ball that I think any decent LF could have gotten to. His dWar is now -1.5. He better hit like crazy because his D is one of the worst in baseball. We all know that Pat Burrell was a terrible LF, but Hoskins looks to be WORSE than Burrell in LF.

        1. Hoskins should return to 1B but let’s make it clear, I don’t think he’s a GG at 1B. I’m juts hoping for way less negative dWar at 1B, like -0.5.

          1. When it comes to MLB LFers there are a few things to remember.
            Every LF in MLB ,except for these seven …Brett Gardner…Jon Jay…Kyle Schwarber…JaCoby Jones…Alex Gordon….Corey Dickerson….and Red’s Adam Duvall, all have negative fdWARs.
            Though Hoskins ranks 24th with a negative 7.7 fdWAR.
            Oddly Kyle Schwarber ranks third and in the positive, and Denard Span is 21st in the negative..

  19. Hoskins has been a class act since he arrived. He is frustrated, that is understandable and while he should not react to fans and should have realized the C missed the ball, that is abnormal for hi. He gets a pass from me for last night. I prefer he shows his emotions. Granted, his season has been mediocre, and he needs to do a better job of making contact, but he waited for the press and didn’t hide in the trainer’s room, and admitted his mistake. I see it completely differently than when guys didn’t run out balls. I believe he did not know it went past the C.

  20. Been out of the country for 2 weeks and so I am out of touch. Know its not the proper discussion board, but does anyone have an update on Colton Eastman?

    1. I posted in the draft thread earlier this morning that Eastman is in Philadelphia. He’s going to sign. My guess is Eastman and the Phillies have agreed to wait out the HS/JUCO pitchers that are still unsigned. Maybe the Phillies have told Eastman they can give him a slightly higher bonus if Carpenter, Smith, Jones, and Kinney choose not to sign or if those kids don’t use all of the teams’ remaining pool money.
      Eastman pitched close to 120 innings at Fullerton this season. The Phillies are probably going to limit his innings when he signs anyway.

      1. Hinkie, if that’s how Eastman is starting out, I’m worried. A “real” Philly cheesesteak is nothing to write home about. I love cheesesteaks but not in Philadelphia. Originals are cheap meat, under-cooked onions and Cheez Wiz.

        1. Bingo…..thats basically what is at Genos or Pats.
          I prefer Nick’s Hot Roast beef myself over any cheesesteak..

        2. I don’t eat meat But i loved geno when i did. where do you get a cheesesteak like philly. its the grease and cheap meat which makes it so good. ROMUS dirty nicks you really don’t eat there m8

          1. Watch out Roccum broke into Lenny Drystra med Cabinet again. The Multiple personalities are coming out again .

    1. Blake Snell is my guy !!! For the past two years, I’ve been telling you guys he’s the most perfect trade target for the Phillies: young (25 YO), LH, under team control until 2023, and (most importantly) really, really good (mid 90’s FB, two plus breaking balls, and a plus CH). Every time he goes out and throws like he did last night, he gets more and more expensive. I posted last week, and some people thought I had lost my mind (you know who you are … DMAR) that I would give up Sixto Sanchez, Alec Bohm, Jhailyn Ortiz, and a couple of middle/lower tier prospects for Snell.
      If Tampa were to make Snell available, there would be an all out bidding war for him.

      1. Why Would Tampa give Snell up ? That’s like saying The Phillies will put up Nola on the block. Tampa would put up Archer before Snell.

        1. There’s a bout of New York Yankees disease going on. What do I mean by that? That people think that the Phillies should (and can) get all the best players from other teams.

      2. LOL I’m still not giving up that much for Snell Hinkie. It’s just Sixto and Bohm that make that look ridiculous

        just sayin

          1. rocco…..wow….that must be a record….Bohm’s been on Williamsport’s team now for four days and you have already given up on him. 🙂

    1. Here are the four top kids linked to the Phillies (as far as I know):

      Starlyn Castillo is the big name. One of, if not the hardest throwing pitchers in the class.

      Fernando Ortega RHP throws 90 MPH and comes with a pretty good looking breaking ball.

      1. Joalbert Angulo tall, skinny, projectable LHP.

        Alexeis Azuaje 5’10” SS clocked as the fastest player in this year’s J2 class.

        1. Alexeis Azuaje. isn’t very big at just 5’10, 160 pounds so that speed will be needed to come in handy.
          Just hope the Phillies do not trade to convert him into a switch-hitter from his natural right hand side

        2. BTW … Matt Klentak should be announcing a couple/few trades early next week (probably on Tuesday) that will send excess prospects elsewhere for J2 dollars. Some likely candidates to be dealt (IMO) are Jose Taveras, Malvin Matos, Kevin Markham, Jesus Azuaje, Zach Warren, and even (I’m hiding my eyes as I say this) Jakob Hernandez.

          1. Hinkie every time you try to predict what the Phillies FO will do your wrong . LoL
            1.Taveras is hurt so there’s that.
            2.the Phillies hired a bunch of new scouting personal thought the world .
            3.last yr they sighed a Taiwanese pitcher. A New Zealand OF , A couple is Aussie players . Maybe if they spread the wealth so to speak it may play off.

            1. Pitchers Connor Brogdon and Kyle Dohy may bring back a substantial monetary return. I am sure Baltimore would be willing to add more arms into their farm system.

            2. No way Dohy have you seen the Phillies Bp. Dohy might be the Phillies Closer one day. Let’s not forget J2 players are 17yr olds that may never past the GcL.
              SaL A has a great track record of low price players gems.

        3. Thanks Hinkie! Angulo and Azuaje are quite the odd couple with respect to their size(s). Would be great to add 3 high profile arms and a speedy middle infielder.

  21. Drafted Snell last 2 years in fantasy, he has exploded this year. If he were in a major market like NY, Boston, LA, Philly he would be a much bigger story.

  22. With Lively on the DL with shoulder issues…..I was hoping he could be one of the minor league pitchers moved in the next week or two for more int’l money.
    I guess that will now not be the case.

  23. Knapp catching tonight and batting 7th. Franco batting 8th(!) Ouch, that tells me what the FO and Gabe think of Maikel.

  24. The Phillies finally have a young core that is worth building around. I consider the following players to constitute the core:
    Starting Pitchers: Nola, Pivetta, Eflin
    Relievers: Dominguez, Ramos
    Hitters: Hoskins, Herrera, Hernandez, and Alfaro
    I would go all in in the Free Agent market after this year, and sign Machado, Moustakas, and Harper. The Phillies have the payroll space to sign all three. Even with 3 huge FA’s, I project their payroll to be $166 MM in 2019 – far below their $180 MM payroll in 2014. With these 3 FA’s, they can challenge for the World Series in 2019, and for several more years after that.

    Player 2019 salary (000)
    Cesar Hernandez 8,000
    Rhys Hoskins 570
    Odubel Herrera 5,000
    Manny Machado 30,000
    Carlos Santana 17,000
    Mike Moustakas 18,000
    Bryce Harper 30,000
    Jorge Alfaro 560
    Scott Kingery 1,500
    Andrew Knapp 555
    Pedro Florimon 1,500
    Nick Williams 560
    Aaron Nola 3,500
    Jake Arrietta 25,000
    Nick Pivetta 570
    Zach Eflin 560
    Vincent Velasquez 2,500
    Seranthony Dominguez 560
    Hector Neris 2,000
    Luis Garcia 2,000
    Edubray Ramos 560
    Zac Curtis 550
    Tommy Hunter 9,000
    Victor Arano 555
    Pat Neshek 5,750

    Total 166,350

    1. While I do admire the work that you put into this post, the odds of the Phillies signing all 3 guys to FA deals are as close to zero as you can get. There’s no way that the Yankees/Red Sox/Nationals are just going to sit idly by.

      I think MM will get more than $30M per year from somebody. And I think if Boras doesn’t see the dollars he wants for Harper, he’ll get Harper to sign a 1 year, $30M-$35M show me contract (likely back with the Nats).

        1. Dan O’Dowd thinks the AAV will be there but not the 10 years. Should be interesting.

          Wife sitting next to me last night says who is this Manny guy they keep talking about. I heard we might be getting him. Went through the whole rental explanation for her using purses as an example.

          Since Coach tends to be her favorite brand I said would trade 3 of your Coach bags for 1 bag that you’ve been dreaming on to walk around with for the rest of the summer but come Oct you lose it and the bags you traded.

          Heck yeah she says. I’ll just buy new ones.

      1. Thanks, Guru. Let’s remember many people were saying last year that the Phils have no shot at signing Arrietta; he will get a 5/6 year offer from someone. The Phils were successful in signing two top FA’s (Arrietta and Santana) this year, and two mid-level FA’s (Neshek and Hunter). It is not inconceivable that they can sign two of the top 10 FA’s after this year. In addition to Machado and Harper, top FA’s this year include Kershaw, Donaldson, Kimbrel, Corbin, Keuchel, Dozier, Pollock, and Andrus. The Yankees already have 4 large contracts (Stanton, Chapman, Tanaka, Ellsbury), while the Phils have just two (Arrietta, Santana).

        1. Arrieta was going to be 32 before the start of this season and he already had a declining fastball. And his agent was Scott Boras. I wanted Arrieta, but not for 5 years.

          I don’t count the Yankees out when it comes to contracts. Until they sit out next offseason’s FA haul, they will always be in the mix.

    2. You have Machado and harper at $30M AAV….Tourt right now is $33M AAV…I think they will both surpass that number and come in around $35M AAV or maybe even a little more when the dust settles..

    3. That’s nice work by you, David. However, I consider Kingery a better hit tool than Alfaro (who I love and think also needs more time to develop) and a core piece. Cesar’s tenure with the club is up for debate.

      1. Thanks, 8mark. I agree with you that Kingery has a lot of promise as a hitter. I would definitely hold on to him, and see how he develops. I don’t consider him a part of the core yet, until he shows that he can hit MLB pitchers better than he has so far. I am optimistic that he will grow into a solid MLB hitter.
        I would not let Cesar leave under any circumstances. He has been a +8.3 WAR player over the last 2.5 seasons. That is a keeper.
        I also agree that Alfaro’s hitting needs to improve. However, his defense is so good that I consider him a part of the core already.

      2. 8mark you right Cesar has to go, his 54 walks are terrible. Kingery has shown he is a stud. A five tool player. I would release him. and let Kingery play second. Alfaro cant hit a fastball I don’t see him as our future catcher. maybe a backup.

    4. The Phillies are absolutely going to be major spenders in this winter’s FA market. However, Machado and Moustakas are redundant. MM (whether he likes it or not) is going to spend most of his time at 3B with the Phillies. After Machado, I think MacKlentak and Middleton will shop the pitching aisle. Their top targets should be Yusei Kikuchi, Patrick Corbin, Garrett Richards, JA Happ, Jake Diekman, Zach Britton, and Andrew Miller.

      I think/have thought for more than a year that MM to the Phillies is a near lock. I believe the team should go hard after Kikuchi and a LH reliever (Miller, Diekman, or Britton [if he rebounds from injuries]).

      1. Hinkie…Tim posted the Phillies have recently chosen not to follow your suggestions.
        You must be more persuasive. 🙂

          1. Just went up and saw it. Maybe Taveras is hurt … or … maybe he’s being held out because the team has a deal in place to trade him and they don’t want to risk a further injury.
            Either way … Tim should pay more attention to my prediction that Klentak will deal some excess prospects early next week for J2 dollars instead of my speculation on which specific prospects will be dealt.

        1. If the Phillies followed what Hinkie posts he should be hired by them .not sure it Rd that’s going to happen. Lol

      2. Hinkie, The Phils already have one of the better starting pitching groups in MLB, with De Los Santos waiting in the wings. It would not be smart to spend significant FA $ on another starting pitcher. The Phils wisely have the philosophy of developing pitchers in-house, and signing hitters when necessary.
        We do need a SS to contend for the WS. Crawford has shown no evidence that he can hit MLB pitching. I see Machado as the SS in a WS contending team, with Moustakas as the 3B.

        1. David …

          1. Yes, the Phillies have a good, young starting rotation. However, it’s not good enough to win a WS.

          2. You’re over-rating De Los Santos. As I’ve posted before … he’s Zach Eflin. That’s not a bad thing, but he’s not the stud I think you’re envisioning.

          3. MM is barely passable (defensively) as a SS at age 25. He’s only going to get slower/cover less ground as he ages.

          1. Agree. My biggest concern with JP isn’t his skill set but rather his durability. Athletic as he is, he needs to gain weight and muscle, though not much. Seems susceptible to minor injuries that interrupt his development.

            1. Can you imagine back in ’13 if Ruben took a chance on Judge at 16 vs JPC!
              Judge went 32. Then again a few dozen current or fromer GMs are probably asking that same question of themselves.

            2. I’m not a Yankees fan but Cashman has really blossomed after the old man passed. Hal stays out of his way and the returns have been tremendous.

      3. Hinkie – I am beginning to like Eduardo Escobar of Minnesota Twins – as a multi purpose infiieder – all positions and LF as a free agent next year. Leads all mlb in doubles has a decent glove and has shown consistent power – only 30 next year.

        1. RU … TBH, I’m not familiar with Escobar. From your description, he sounds a lot like Marwin Gonzalez (who I do like a lot).

      4. Wait say the Yanks or Boston tell Machado you can play SS for Us.
        1. That could be a deal breaker right there . The. Yanks would move DiDi In heart beat . The Yanks could also a lineup of Judge, Stanton, Torres,Machado.
        2.Boston even the Angels could be in play.
        3.the Phillies would give up JP job in a minute to Machado.
        4.the one thing the Phillies cant do is say ” we only want you as a 3rd baseman.”
        5. Machado can sign where ever he wants.

    1. BTW … I know this is a Tim imposter. It’s rocco or j posting as Tim again.
      The real Tim would never question the information I post.

        1. OK. I’ll know if it’s the real Tim if he can answer this question: Who was the starting catcher on the last Phillies team to win a WS ???

            1. When I was a little kid we got to Connie Mack early enough to see players coming in from the parking lot. My dad says.”There’s Johnny Callison” so I run over and get his autograph and run back to dad. He asks me why I didn’t get the other guy with Callison to sign an autograph. I said “Who? That old bald guy?” It was Clay Dalrymple. Thanks for stirring up a memory Rocco.

  25. I believe that they are going to try to be major spenders. My problem is that they are not in the market alone, and the other teams with the $ to spend offer better chances to win. If the $ is the same, why would MM choose here over the Yankees? I think Moustakas and Donaldson are back up plans and I agree that they are in on all of Hinkie’s suggestions, except Kikuchi. When have they ever gone into the Japanese market?

      1. Romus, Tad came from the WSox and So from the Cards. I meant a FA high line player like Darvish or Tanaka or what Kikuchi is supposed to be. I don’t even hold Ohtani against them because he eliminated East of the Mississippi from the get go.

        1. matt13…..understand now.
          Then the bottom line….they did not go into the Asian market for free agents for awhile..

    1. matt … the money isn’t going to be the same. Middleton is going to outbid everyone else for MM.
      I believe the market to sign Kikuchi will be very competitive. I can see the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers (and a few others) all bidding on him. It’s still not too late for Andy MacPhail to implement my plan to hire Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto as the Phillies Director of Clubhouse Food Services. That (along with the highest bid) would go a long way in luring the Japanese LHP to CBP !!!!
      If they do miss out on Kikuchi, I’d (as I’ve previously suggested) would be prepared to give up a major chunk of the farm for Blake Snell. Ultimately, I’d be willing to surrender Sixto Sanchez, Alec Bohm, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Cole Irvin for Snell.

      1. Questions Hinkie if the Phillies are getting , Snell ,Kikuchi, and maybe Corbin. Wheres Pivetta, VV, Eflin going . Isn’t it better to trade Pivetta, VV , Eflin ,Maybe SD even Hoskins For Snell ML ready Players. Plus Snell and Nola will be FA almost the same time.

        1. Tim … the Phillies are not getting Snell, Kikuchi, and Corbin. They’ll be shopping for one LHSP and one LHRP.

    2. Matt so far Klentak has spent 179 million on Michael Saunders, Neshak, Arrieta. Santana. cant think of the other one. what a waste of millions.

      1. Cehe had a bad error last night . Which cost may cost him MVP , Golden Glove, All star MVP. Santana walks more then Cehe and k’s much less .

  26. Holy moly Judge is A big guy. He also moves well for being that size. That HR was very little effort.

  27. Putting aside the fact that Rhys Hopkins’ numbers are mediocre, is anyone else the most concerned over the number of Ks looking that he is taking? He has had a very good eye, and unless the Strike Zone against him has changed, and I am sure there may be a little merit that he does not get marginal calls, taking Strike 3 so often is the opposite of a “good eye”. That comcerns me the most.

    1. I’m concerned. I’m seeing a different Rhys and wondering if this group of coaches has got into his head with that launch angle crap….

      Last season Rhys would hit balls regularly foul poll to foul poll. This year it hasn’t been there. Opponents are crowding him and pitching him up.

  28. If Gabe really wants to be BOLD, he would have let Cozens pinch hit vs Severino instead of Altherr. What the hell, why not at this point.

  29. Are the Phils rumored to be linked to any of the upcoming international amateur players with july 2nd approaching?

  30. the 2.5 k per game drop from Arrieta is really something- even last year he was about a k per inning. the lowest k per 9 of any other Phils pitcher is 8.3, and Jake is at 6.2.

    1. It is lower, but I’m cautiously optimistic because Arrieta’s stuff is actually good and his velocity seems to have stabilized. I think he’s going through a period where, for some reason, he’s decided to pitch to contact. Once he goes back to a philosophy where he’s trying to pitch to mitt, I think he’ll be better off, but I don’t think it’s because he no longer has the tools to be successful. In the long run, if he stays healthy he will be fine.

  31. Is there a NL team that could defeat either the Yankees, Red Sox or Astros in the World Series? Half way through the season, I think not. And, how does that affect the league wide pursuit of Manny Machado? None of the AL’s top 3 teams really “needs” him at the expense of the prospects required to acquire him. It wouldn’t seem like an AL team such as Seattle has what it takes to both trade for him AND re-sign him in free agency. Nor Cleveland.

    The Dodgers are always a snake in the grass for big ticket players, not the DBacks. Both the Cubs and Dodgers have significant payroll implications to consider. Milwaukee has been the NL’s most consistent club but don’t have the wherewithal to both trade and keep Machado. The Braves aren’t likely to try either when they have more feasible options. The Nats have way more urgent matters to address.

    The Phillies can wait and see what remains of the Manny market and decide whether he’s worth it now vs waiting until the off season. That’s an advantageous place to be.

    1. Arizona went after JD Martinez last yr. The Yanks , Boston , Cleveland, Houston are atop of the food chain. However Baseball long season alot of things could Happen . The good thing about playing in the NL is that you only have to play 1 of those teams .

  32. Phillies 10-13 in June…four games left..one with the Yankees and three with the Nats.
    Last month, I said,if they can be 14-13 for June, they have a legit shot at 90 wins this season.

    Braves next 18 games are killers…..Phillies have a softer schedule into the first three-quarters of July, be it mostly away games vs under.500 teams, so they need to pick up their away game offense..Though the Dodgers are here in Philly for three near the end of the month.

    1. Romus they cant hit and have a bad bullpen. I understand you call me negative. but omg you cant be serious. I cant believe anyone can trust klentak. Middelton is puppet with these two running the team, I Don’t care how soft there schedule is. they don’t hit. You are getting nothing out of third. short, right field and catcher. and cant hold a lead from the bullpen. Really am I suppose to come on here and rah rah phillies, when I see how bad the gm and manager are? Thought you knew better than that m8

  33. Stick a fork in the Nats they’re done (I’m being BOLD) Yankees win the 2018 WS. Their line-up is that good and they have the prospects to land another TOR guy.

    To pour salt on an open Hinkie wound that TOR they land will be Snell.

    1. Indians and ‘Stros IMO will be the last two standing in the AL championship.
      The way it stands now the Yankees could have to play a WC one game playoff vs the Mariners or Angels.
      The Red Sox pitching will get them the division
      Yankees will probably kick the tires on Hamels or Happ to get them a needed arm.
      Snell? Rays are not that stupid.
      And the Indians and ‘Stros will cost in September running away with their divisions..

      1. Romus, it’s easier to predict who makes the playoffs than who takes home the booty. Success in the postseason rests primarily on a) who is playing well heading in, and b) matchups. That is virtually impossible to foresee.

        1. Thats true….but like my odds with Verlander, Cole, McCullers and Kueuchel….or Sox starters. Indians will need to get another besides Kluber and Bauer,since Carasco’s injury could be devastating for them..

      1. Rocco the Phillies were not supposed to contend for the division let alone the WS. The expectations on the Nats are WS or bust am I wrong?

        That said we are on the same page. I don’t think McPhail and Klentak are that good and I don’t think Middleton will allow them to overstay their welcome. I don’t think they are dumb or anything I just don’t think they have a feel for the game and they certainly are lacking in talent evaluation.

        The real Hinkie got fired because they said he lacked interpersonal skills; Chip Kelly lacked emotional intelligence they said.

        Pro sports is about human beings. Human beings have feelings, they get upset, they have bad days, they miss their families, they feel pressure they do all the things contrary to analytics.

        If you forget that and try to make analytics the star attraction in your org you are doomed to fail.

        I won’t pretend to know the dynamics of how things operate down there these days but from the fringes you can make some educated guesses.

        The fact that they are kind of in the hunt for the division shouldn’t change the plan.

  34. Whatever the Phillies do, it would be the height of foolishness for them to depart with any of their most valuable prospects or young players to rent a player or to obtain a player they could just buy in the offseason as they are so far behind the top teams in baseball (this is not a mirage – the Yankees are far, far better than the Phillies) that they will just be wasting assets. In fact, they are far enough behind these teams that I think they should consider trading some of their better assets for top prospects. In other words, if you’re going to trade a guy like Cesar, maybe it’s better to get a hot shot AA or AAA prospect than a seasoned veteran. And I think it may be better for them to be both buyers and sellers at the deadline – just doing whatever is best for the long term success of the team.

      1. It’s not going to happen anytime soon if it does at all. I know you hate him, but I think it’s been mixed. I don’t think he’s an idiot and is still learning. Howie Roseman got a lot better over the years so let’s see. My biggest issue is not the approach but the talent evaluation and that’s not just on him. We will see.

  35. So wasting 178 million doesn’t bother you. His talent evaluations doesn’t bother you? I am amaze catch I know you know this sport. to try to compare him to roseman is nuts. I Will tell you why. Roseman isn’t a football man. but the reason he was successful was he went out and got Joe Douglas, who worked under one of the best guy in finding talent in the game Ozzie Newsome

    1. rocco….his contact may not be extended or renewed next season.
      He was hired in Oct 2015 and next year probably up for an extension.
      Depends on how the team is doing this time next year. going into the July break in 2019. If they are still in the race, then he gets extended IMO.
      Also they will need to sign Manny., not sure signing Donaldson in the off-season will move the needle very far in Klentak’s favor

      1. Romus – Donaldson reinjured again. Calf injury. Is it possible he is finally giving in to age ? My guess is – next to Harper, no one has hurt his free agency pay day more than Donaldson.

        Meanwhile, as I referenced to Hinkie, Twin’s Eduardo Escobar has made his pay day a more likely scenario. Check out his numbers ! They are MM light – but better than you would think !

        Brad Hand is a good pitcher but not somebody the Phillies are likely to get. He is too expensive in terms of player assets. SD has a super young lefty Jose Castillo who is the player to get for Franco, among others. But then, I would not want to play poker with A J Preller, SD GM – he doesn’t always play by the rules.

    2. First of all, he has like the lowest payroll in the sport and what contracts he does have are limited and/or controlled. You can criticize him for a lot, but managing payroll and giving himself flexibility in the future is not a legitimate criticism – he’s got more room to maneuver than any GM in baseball. His hands are completely untied.

      I am not saying he is Roseman or is going to be Roseman. What I am saying is that he’s not a stupid person and he’s trying to do the right thing. But it can take a little time for a young executive to grow into the job. Roseman screwed up a bunch of stuff before he got most of it right – remember Danny Watkins? That was a Roseman pick. So I’m giving him a little time and, by the way, the team has improved under his watch quite a bit so why are burying him yet?

      I’m not saying he has done great or will be great. I am saying the outcome has been mixed but the team has improved and I’m giving him a little more time. We will probably know for sure in the near future. I’m willing to let it play out.

  36. Here is my idea to start to fix this club. Put Nola up and see what the yankees and boston will offer. The yankess would get that starter they want and he is cheap, and we could get at least 4 good prospect, not Alfaro or eichoff type I mean Forial. Frazier Matt Sauer,.Jothan Loaisiga,

    1. Aaron Nola is one of the most coveted commodities in all of baseball – a young, cost-controlled ace. Moving him would be a earth-shaking move, would have huge negative public relations repercussions (a LOT of explaining to do to the general public) and would re-set the rebuild at least a year or two backwards even if the trade is a long-term success. It’s hard to imagine how much you would need in return in that trade – but I’m thinking you’d need at least two potential superstars – top 10-15 prospects – and two more in the top 75.

        1. Only one of those players is a top 15 prospect – Sixto. Ortiz and Irvin are outside the top 75 and I’m not sure where Bohm falls but he’s probably between 50 and 75. That’s nowhere near close to what I was talking about.

          Think a package that includes a prospect like Sixto AND Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and some other guys who are good. That type of package.

          1. For the record I’m not interested in trading Nola and I’m not interested in giving up Sixto and Bohm for Snell. You want to find replacements for those 2 I’d consider it.

            Our strength right now is our rotation and the depth behind it. Marginal offensive improvement at 3B and RF should put us in a really good place for the rest of this season and then a big sign in the off season should complete the rebuild.

    2. If Klentak will move Aaron Nola, it should be for a legit MLB superstar — like Mike Trout!!! Impatience can make some people desperate. Klentak has no reason to be desperate unless he a mole that’s implanted to sabotage the Phillies organization.

      If Klentak wants to replenish the farm, there are a lot of young players to unload and Nola should be the last one to go.

      Just ride out the rest of the season and Klentak just need to see who are the keepers. The Phillies will make their big moves and we’ll see them compete starting next season.

      1. kk moving Nola only if we pug at least three holes with studs. I still in my mind think Pivetta can be as good or better than nola. My point is you can get three good postion players plus a young stud pitcher from the loaded yankees.

        1. @roccom – you said studs? whose name(s) you mentioned that legitimate studs? those are names who are trying to prove themselves similar to how you criticize Kingery over Cesar.

          If Klentak will shoot of a young and upcomer, then he should with Torres and Andujar. Unlike Machado who is a 2-month rental, Nola is not.

          Frazier is the odd man out, NYY will sell below his market. Sixto and Medina will be up soon, no need to have Sauer. The Phils are looking at some breakout young arms in Pivetta, Eflin and delos Santos so no need for Loaisiga.

          As for the OF, Rhys will be in LF for 2 more years, and i’ll plug the hole in the FA.

  37. I agree with Hinkie on the following:

    Brad Hand – SD is rebuilding their farm and AJ Preller will try to cash in and sell high on any of his players. Klentak can check in as part of his due diligence.

    Enyel delos Santos – i lobbied for him during the prospect ranking but no one bothers. His stuff is a Eflin-esque with mid-FB and CU combo. If Klentak wants to best utilize delos santos, sell him high.

    The only prospects that Klentak should keep are Sixto and Medina because these 2 has stuff that’s ready to contribute to the majors really soon.

  38. If McPhail and Klentak can’t do anything of significance this upcoming off season, they need to be FIRED!!! If Middleton is willing to spend $350M++, Machado will be a Phillie.

  39. Badler of Baseball America released his top 50 J2 Prospects : Starlyn Castillo rated # 16 ; Fernando Ortega rated # 32 ; Joalbert Angulo rated # 42. In similar poll – Jess Sanchez of MLB.com rates Castillo # 8. Castillo is considered the best DR pitcher for his fastball and overall stuff, but is behind Richard Gallardo from Venezuela as best overall pitcher. These players are mentioned because Phillies are considered favorites to sign them.

  40. Klentak knows his club is not winning the World Series this year. The plan was always to push for next year. The only trades they might make, and they may not make any, will be minor. They might trade some B prospects like Irvin, etc for a band aid like Beltre but that’s about it. No A prospects will be moved for rentals. The big moves remain to be done next off season. Signing Machado will sure help but that can’t be all they do. Patience everyone!

    1. Murray is correct. The Phillies (and they know this) aren’t winning anything this year. The plan has always been to open that window of contention in 2019.
      Yes. If the team is still in contention in three weeks from now, Klentak will owe it to the fan base to make some kind of move to help the club. However, that move will probably involve giving up a couple of mid to lower level prospects for a rental. Whether that rental is a bat or BP arm … IDK.

      Also … to be clear … I have never said Tampa was looking to trade Blake Snell. However … if you are the Rays, you know the Yankees and Red Sox will be dominating the AL East for the next 5 to 6 years. That means by the time Tampa has a realistic shot of competing for the division title/even playoff berth, Snell will no longer be cheap or controllable.
      Having laid all that out … if the Rays can get a boatload of prospects (Sixto, Bohm, Ortiz, Irvin, and a lottery ticket) in their late teens and early 20’s who should be reaching their prime (and still be inexpensive) in 5 or 6 years from now, they should at least think long and hard about pulling the trigger on that deal. Pitchers are the most iffy commodities in baseball. Just a year ago, Tampa probably thought they were in line for a huge return in a potential Chris Archer deal. Now, his potential return looks a lot less rich.

      The Phillies OTOH are in a completely different place than Tampa. Beginning in 2019, they will be competing for pennants and WS titles. There is no reason for them to trade their best pitcher (Nola) no matter what other teams may offer.

      1. @Hinkie – I like Snell too but I’m not with you on the cost to acquire Snell.

        I guess it’s consensus here that the Phillies need to acquire legitimate MLB stud (not young and up coming future stud) and $$ is not an issue with the Phils due to payroll flexibility and deep pockets. Blake Snell doesn’t check both, he’s good but not yet a proven MLB stud and his cost is prohibitive. Unless you’re a sucker to a FB velocity, Blake Snell is not (yet) better than Aaron Nola. If Klentak wants a complimentary LH starter, go after Kikuchi or Corbin.

        I’ve been in the Ohtani (now Kikuchi) – Machado – Trout to Philly train since 2 years ago. My point to that argument is to acquire legitimate MLB studs. The farm will provide the young core, the Phils just need legitimate MLB studs to anchor the winning Phillies team.

      2. There are no untouchables on the phillies. If it makes you better. anyone can be traded. I am not a gm but if I can get three studs and I mean young studs for nola I will do it. in a minute. its the way to go especially if Sixto is as good as people think, but lets not and keep giving money to guys like I mention before. Arrieta. Saunders. Hunter, overpay for guys who are older and cant do anything for us. SMH That is the way this guy klentak thinks and he is terrible.

        1. rocco…glad you left off Santana from your list….right now he ranks 9th of all first basemen in the majors with a 1fWAR…….Rizzo ranks 13th with a .6fWAR

        2. @roccom – here’s the problem with your wishful thinking. when you say young studs, you are talking to the following:

          1) Mike Trout
          2) Nolan Arenado
          3) Manny Machado
          4) Mookie Betts
          5) Carlos Correa
          6) Kris Bryan
          7) and so on…..

          Every GM wants this type of players so good luck getting one (and you ask for 3?!?) for Aaron Nola.

          If you are talking about young “who can be” studs this is another commodity that no GMs will just give up or maybe the Phils already have these young “who can be” studs and they just need to complete their development.

          The 4 NYY players that you mentioned – Florial, Frazier, Sauer and Loaisiga – what’s their difference with the likes of Sixto, Medina, Hoskings, Kingery, Haseley and the rest of the young players and prospects?

          Sixto and Medina are closer to the majors and possible higher ceiling that Sauer and Loasiga. Florial is a good prospect but so is Kingery and Hoskins were. What guarantee that Florial will be Acuna or Soto than Buxton? And for Frazier, he cannot even get a decent playing time.

          It took a long time for the Phils to develop an ace in Nola and you just want to trade him away for still unproven commodity who possibly the Phils have a similar commodity in their farm?

  41. Per Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY, the Orioles are heavily scouting the Dodgers’ farm system, which currently makes LAD favorites to land Machado.

    1. Oh I see now, you are looking at relievers and not a third baseman….Raisel Iglesias.
      Fangraphs ranks him at 79th for relievers for a 0.4WAR

  42. Instead of Trading Nola trade VV or Pivetta . The Yanks major weakness is starting . The Yanks young SP right now . At least 2 German and loaisiga are young and on a pitch count .
    1. Boston is a 1/2 out . If the Yanks lose today and Boston wins NY Yankees are in 2nd . That’s how close to he race is . Boston is just as good as the Yanks .
    2. CC will be 38 my the end of the year. Montgomery is out for the season.
    Both Gray and Tanaka haven’t been good this yr .
    3. The later the better with a trade at the deadline more pressure.

    1. Tim Boston doesn’t have the prospect the yankees have, and I think ths yankese would bees willings to gieves up mores.

    1. Everybody knew that Boras fleeced the Nationals on Werth’s contract. The contract: 7 years, $126M. Werth’s WAR for the Nats: 8.8 WAR.

    2. That’s true!! If this team wants to have an interesting WC run and it doesn’t cost too much they should take a flier on a right fielder who can actually hit. They could definitely catch fire. Altherr and Williams aren’t cutting it so far.

      1. Hopefully somebody other than Werth will be available to handle those duties…he has been less than a replacement player for the last three years….negative 2WAR over that time.

      1. Romus there is a outfielder from the marlins who is available , I don’t know him but we need a right fielder, His name is Dietrick, wonder if he could help. I cant believe Tyler Cloud is a marlin he is terrible

        1. rocco…he would be an above average player. Plays 2nd, 3rd, and LF so he is versatile. But Jeter will not just give him away.
          Probably cost a position prospect and also pitcher prospect.

  43. A lot of people have posted about bringing back Cole Hamels, or J A Happ lately. I hope their reasons are purely sentimental. Be realistic, who is the worst starting pitcher in the Phillies rotation today? For the first two months, it appeared as though the Phillies hit the FA jackpot, and now, I’m having my doubts. If Klentak were to make a trade, one of three pitchers who are doing better than Arrieta would be sent down (and then there’s the Eickhoff situation). Of course the Phillies could conjure up another phony injury

    1. Mike it’s the LhP J Happ could do it . The Braves have a host if LH batter’s . VV doesn’t have a history of staying healthy. Plus he hasn’t thrown over 130 ings in the big leagues. Pivetta still needs to prove he has it over a full season.

      I do think Irvin and Ranger will push the meter up soon. Pivetta ,VV , Elfin know they have to keep producing at a high level to stay up in the Majors Which is good .

      1. Tim … Which of the pitchers who’s currently pitching better than Arrieta would you send down when Eickhoff is ready. How much more of a leash do we give Arrieta?

        1. Arrieta stays in starting rotation all year. Klentak wont admit a mistake. Good or bad he is here this year , They never would put him in bullpen

        2. Eickhoff still has a long way to go. He needs to prove he’s healthy so that he can go to rehab, then he has to build up his strength with rehab assignments, and after no setbacks, then he gets activated. Best case, he’s back with the Phillies the first week of August. At that point, hopefully the picture gets clearer with the starters.

  44. On Arrieta last night 3 unearned runs. I’d give him a very long leash he’s proven the others aren’t .

  45. I get the developing impatience but I don’t understand is the sudden desperation to stay off course and let the Phils finish what they started.

    It took long and hard for the Phils to achieve the following:

    1) Create payroll flexibility
    2) Develop a young core that develop and win together
    3) Develop a legit CY Young contender that can anchor the rotation
    4) Find and develop TOR arms who can contribute to the majors very soon.

    On the payroll flexibility, why sacrifice some high end prospects when the Phils have payroll flexibility to acquire prove MLB players via FA? The Phillies created the payroll flexibility and changed the face of the leadership for specific reasons.

    Sal A. finally found his diamond is Sixto – so why give him up when he can be close to the majors? If the Phils can get acquire a Chris Sale (traded for Moncada and Kopech), then giving up Sixto is OK since they will get a proven top arm. Maybe Snell can be like Chris Sale, but he is not yet Chris Sale. TB traded a lot of their top arm, just wait for the right time.

    We’ve seen the old FO focus on high risk and high reward types of players and we know how that turned out. The 2 young players who can be solid foundations are deemed to be low ceiling, high floor type in Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins.

    I appreciated the current Sixers a lot because I have to go through that years of tanking and watching gypsies. As much as I don’t like McPhail-Klentak duo, I think something good will come out soon.

    Philly sports is not meant to be a perennial purgatory. The City and the fans are too good to be denied greatness.

    1. Herrera over Hoskins as a building block . Herrera excels both as a hitter and fielder.
      It’s about the Phillies. Have a legit chance to win the division this yr. If you can trade some prospect to get a reliever or better hitter you do it.
      1. The Frazier and Drury trade makes alot of sense . Weather or not it gets done maybe the time table will be later then sooner.

      1. Doobie is another low ceiling high floor type of player. I still see Hoskins over Herrera —– Hoskins is a legit run producing batter with sold plate discipline which is harder to find that Doobie’s profile.

        NYY needs arms. I can see them trading Frazier and some other arms like Chance Adams, Luis Medina, Dillon Tate to DET for Michael Fulmer.

        1. Herrera profile GGCF Defense with a 40 double 25 hr 100 RBI while batting . I mean
          Herrera could be a 8 war player for a couple of yrs . Even in a subpar offense season Herrera defense will carry him . Hoskins is below avg LF and an avg 1st base man his offense has to carry him big time. While Hoskins is still young as he ages he’s first base only . Which will hurt his war. Plus Herrera will always have a better k%.

        2. Hoskins needs to hit like crazy because his defense is going to erode his value. As much as I like Hoskins, he’s the second coming of Pat Burrell in LF. Hoskins will have 1 or 2 eye-popping years, but the rest will be dragged down by his D.

          Herrera already has two 4 WAR seasons. There’s no way Hoskins has more value than Herrera. And Herrera plays a premium position.

          1. Hoskins is not a LF and everybody knows that. He is a 1B and will be a 1B long term. Everybody knows that, that’s why there’s some questions as to why Santana was signed.

            And here’s the WAR again. JD Martinez was supposed to be a bad WAR guy, but he is producing and a key reason why BOS is in the lead.

            I wonder why MLB doesn’t make WAR an official stat?

            1. If you don’t believe in WAR, that’s your problem not mine.

              The Red Sox have crazy money, so they’ll overpay for everybody, and cut them if they don’t produce. For them, WAR is less of an issue.

            2. KuKo……JD Mart is a bad WAR defensive player. Never was anything great in the OF.
              It is his offensive game that generates his WAR, believe it or not saem as Mike Trout who’s defefensive WAR in CF has gradually trended down……now 180 degree is Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons whose defensive game generates their higher than normal total WAR

              And an official stat of MLB?
              What are the official stats of MLB?
              And where are they published?

            3. @Guru/Romus – I will no longer argue on WAR as this is a point of no return and even the baseball world are divided in this argument.

              These stats follows the players the performance and abilitiies. If a player is good then his stats are good and if he’s bad and so is his performance. So why not argue about the players abilities? At least with that’s something observable to the eyes?

              We don’t need to throw these advance stats to make us look knowledgeable about the game because I’m almost certain that none of the WAR guys here know how that WAR stat is calculated and the hypothesis behind it.

              Arguments are fun if the basis of the opinion is based on our own knowledge and observation and not based on some mathematical calculation made by a geek sitting behind a desk.

              I like to talk to people who goes in the game and watch the players than the Jayson Starks of the world.

            4. @ Kuko, who says I don’t watch games? I’ve been on MLB.TV since it’s inception. If I was in Philadelphia, I would go to games.

              WAR is a comparison stat. Saying that one guy is better than the other based on his “better hit tool” is old school stuff. WAR may not be perfect (no stat is), but it gives a GENERAL idea of a player’s value when compared to the other.

              So the good players tend to have higher WARs. And the poor ones don’t. I don’t know why you argue against that.

            5. @Guru – WAR is not used to get a general idea of players value when compared to others. As the meaning implies, it is the number of wins that a team will lose if that player is replaced by a replacement level (so basically a AAAA guy). Why keep using WAR if you don’t even know how to use it?

              Since you agree that WAR follows the players abilities, then why not focus your argument with the player’s abilities rather than a stat that you don’t properly understand?

          2. @Guru – i don’t argue with the stats. It is the “misused” or “misapplication” of the WAR that drive my gears.

            WAR means Wins Above Replacement and used on the following:

            a) sum up a player’s total contributions to his team;
            b) WAR value is claimed to be the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player were substituted with a replacement-level player (a player who may be added to the team for minimal cost and effort)

            WAR is not a comparison stat because comparing WAR for CF vs LF vs SP vs etc will not make sense because WAR is not designed to do that. So you still don’t get what WAR means. We’ve beaten this argument so much before that you still don’t get it.

            Or better read this article.

            https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

  46. I don’t have a subscription to The Athletic, but apparently Mitch Rupert does:

    While I respect Mitch’s opinion, there is absolutely no way I am trading JP Crawford, Adonis Medina, Cole Irvin and Connor Seabold for 10 weeks of Manny Machado and Zach Britton. As I’ve mentioned dozens of times already … the Phillies aren’t winning the WS this year with or w/o Machado and Britton. I’m all for giving each of those guys lots of money this winter as FA’s. If he then wants to, Klentak can use the aforementioned prospects to acquire other (young, controllable) pieces to help the Phillies win titles in 2019 and beyond.

    1. @Hinkie – agree on the FA approach to acquire the legit stud that will anchor the team. I’m not really high on controllable aspect since the Phillies can pay if they have too. But Klentak need to do better job of utilizing the depth in the farm.

      Unless the trade return is a legitimate MLB stud, the Phils should keep their best players/prospects. It took then some time to find and develop these type of players, so no need to just give them up unless for a guaranteed performer.

      1. KuKo … sounds like you and I will never agree on Blake Snell. For me, he is already a legitimate MLB stud pitcher. The fact that he is LH and under team control for another four years after this season makes him a Grand Slam trade target !!!

        1. @Hinkie – I think we are, but not yet entirely. My only hesitation to Blake Snell is giving up Sixto. IMO, Nola, Sixto and Medina are untoucheable unless the Phils will acquire a proven MLB stud in the likes of Trout, Arenado, Bryant, etc.

          Assuming Klentak view Blake Snell as a sure shot stud and intends to overpay to acquire him, why not offer anybody in the Top 10 excluding Sixto and Medina? Does Bohm, Haseley, Ortiz, JoJo, Morales, Gowdy, Pipkin doesn’t sound good?

          I think we agree in the timeline and we know that the Phils is not a Blake Snell away to the WS so no need to be desperate. Also, arms are so fragile and top arms are hard to find so why easily give up the few that the Phils have? This is I really like what ATL did in the Rule 4 draft acquiring arms after arms after arms early and often while Johnny A. are acquiring low ceiling players.

    2. Based on how active discussions have been, industry insiders say Machado may be moved before the all star break.

    3. Hmmm…Crawford, Medina, Irvin and Seabold for Manny and Britton? I would really hate to give up Medina. And I still think JP has a promising future in MLB. But at what point do we overvalue our own prospects, even for a couple of high impact 10 week rentals. (Though I’m not a big Britton guy after his recent injury questions.) I’d have to mull it over because I happen to agree with those few among us who believe getting Machado here before his entry into FA is to our advantage, just like it would for the Dodgers.

  47. Elfin beat NY, Chi, Mil,Mil, Wash this month. He might be better then VV and Pivetta . He has better control & command of this pitchers. He can go later in the game . I said maybe we will see.

    The Phillies face the same Nats pitchers from last week ,The next 3 games .

    1. Eflin can be streaky. The big difference this year is that Eflin learned how to utilize his best abilities. Eflin has a big arm and a projectable frame and abandoning the pitch to contact suits his abilities very well.

      Eflin doesn’t have the movement and his command can leave him at times. But the commitment to throw breaking balls (SL and CB) over his best secondary (CU) and trusting his 4S (rather than use 2S to generate ground balls) to generate an out flipped the switch.

      Eflin probably passed Vinny but he’s still behind Pivetta whose breaking balls (CB in particular) are better than him.

      1. Check his last 5 starts Elfin has been outstanding against top offense teams. Pivetta has been more unsteady over 5 starts then Elfin . Elfin has knee surgery so there that too. Elfin hasn’t given up more then 2 runs in his last 5 . His era is almost a full pt lower .
        It’s a small sample but by Aug if this trend continues Elfin could pass both .

        1. I’ve said that Eflin is streaky, he already have a good stretch before. You cannot be selective if you want to provide an objective observation of a player.

          I just don’t look at the stats over a “selected” period of time to do my assessment. As I said, Pivetta’s breaking balls particularly the CB looks better than Eflin’s. FB and Command are probably wash.

          1. True however that was before 2 knee operations and his new CU. Looks way better had always had better Command &. Control Pivetta or VV. Time will tell but imo he may pass Pivetta and VV.

            1. Tim….he wasn’t first round pick in 2012 based on his looks.
              Of the 60 pitchers taken in the first round..HS and College…….15 were HSers, and Eflin is the third highest so far in MLB WAR…..behind studs lance McCullers and Jose Berrios.

  48. I never thought Elfin had this type of stuff. What drives me nuts is why with only 90 pitches, he didn’t start the eighth,

      1. Baseball has really changed so what he was thru the lineup. he was incontrol its not you the Guru its the manager with his saber stuff. He is going to kill that kid seranthony

        1. The game is definitely changing. There is more of an emphasis on power relievers than ever before, since they’re limiting the amount of innings starters will pitch. It will be interesting to see the money contracts starters will get because of this.

          1. The better Pitchers can go deeper into games because of there Command & Control
            1. 1# 2# have that abitily to go past 5 or 6 ings Usually 7 plus.
            2. So some SP Pitchers only go 5 plus 6 ings now .
            3.some of the better RP are hitting 80 games a season .
            4 who do you pay more A 3 ,4 ,5 starter or elite reliever.

  49. Among Eflin, Pivetta and Velasquez, my take has been that Eflin has the highest floor and lowest ceiling. Well, I’m not so sure about the ceiling now. To me, Eflin profiles more as a starter than the other two. Velasquez flashes as a lights out high leverage long reliever. Pivetta a little less so. By season’s end, we should have a better idea.

  50. I’ve seen Zach many times now. I’ve seen him at Reading and of course many of his MLB starts. Last night was the first I noticed a wicked back foot slider to a lefty. Basically he is starting to come into his own and hopefully he has his repertoire figured out.

    Love that he pounded Stanton inside in his first AB. I’ve noticed ever since Stanton got hit in the mouth he hates to be pitched inside. Zach’s command inside to the righties last night was impeccable.

    1. Good observation, I did see Zach bust a couple of pitches inside on Stanton. That was something that I almost never see from Pivetta or VV.

      Eflin has really come into his own. All his pitches (4 seam, slider, change) have gotten better. You can see his confidence growing. It’s funny though, he’s performing well without a true out pitch. But even if he’s a 3, there’s value in that.

  51. When catch mentioned Justin deFratus, it brings back memories of the sudden decline of the last great Phillies team. Amaro still tried to contend with the aging veterans backed up by the following young homegrown players/prospects:

    SP : Worley, Cloyd, Savery
    RP : Bastarado, Diekman, deFratus, Aumont, Stutes, Schwimer, Rosenberg
    Position : Domo Brown, Galvis, Cesar, Ruf

    With hindsight, now we know why the decline is so steep!! Those players are bad except for Cesar, Galvis and Diekman who are legit MLB players.

    1. Like it or not, Amaro tried to keep the window open by trading away the prospects. In hindsight, the prospects we traded didn’t really turn out for the other team. Amaro said Dom was untouchable, and the prospect depth was severely lacking. A lot of those players you mentioned were B type prospects, and really shouldn’t have seen a MLB lineup.

  52. I just cant stand to watch Altheer anymore. Send him down and let him leadoff for lvh. Bring up anyone of the outfielders at triple a. They have to be better than altheer. He is lost and playing him now isn’t helping him. If he goes down less pressure and maybe he starts to hit.That at bat with bases loaded was so bad, he should have been sent down today.

    1. Roc, he definitely has not grabbed the opportunity to be an everyday player. But sending high age 20’s players back down isn’t lkkely going to redeem their careers or their value. He and other candidates like Cozens and Quinn have pretty much run their course as projectable assets and should either be cut loose or preferably moved to another club in hopes that the change of scenery might restart their usefulness.

      1. I call it the “curse of werth”

        think about all we’ve trotted out to RF since he left: Ben Francisco, Mayberry JR, Dom Brown, Saunders, Altherr/Williams

        The bodies are piling up!

    2. Honestly, if Quinn was healthy he’d be up and Altherr would be down. I’m a big Altherr fan but it’s been a bad year for him.

  53. Jinx but no jinx….

    Bailey Falter might end up to be the most underappreciated prospect in the farm. I never see any rankings having Falter in their pre-season Top 30. He’s been very solid in every stop that he had and the BB/9 and K/9 also looks good. FB is said to be in the low 90s (94 tops) with CB and CU — a very Hamel’s like repertoire.

    1. Eric Longenhagen did a piece for ESPN the other day http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/23907191/mlb-breakout-minor-leaguers-all-30-teams where he profiled one breakout prospect for each organization. He named Falter as the Phillies’ breakout prospect. Here’s what he said:

      “The Phillies have several pitchers in the midst of breakout seasons, but Falter is striking out a batter per inning at high-A despite mediocre fastball velocity and average secondary stuff, in part because his huge stride down the mound causes his stuff to jump on hitters sooner than they expect. This natural deception doesn’t detract from Falter’s command and helps otherwise fringe stuff play up to a level that could work in the back end of a big league rotation. His ceiling is limited, but Falter has big league traits.”

      1. @Hinkie – in your updated ranking have Balter at #26 (I have him at #28).

        I agree Eric L. about the average secondary stuff but I don’t consider the FB velocity as mediocre especially for a young lefty.

  54. Big game tonight the Braves are off . Phillies win there 2 games behind. I might go too the philaduim tonight with a couple of my friends good bar.

    1. I knew the kid whos dad owned the Mecca, Ralph I believe the fathers name was. His son was killed in he parking lot at a phillies game by a hit and run driver, who i still don’t think they caught yet. Nice kid Nicky was his name. I Cant remember the kids name who tended bar at Philaium he lived up my old street , I moved after only two years on that street, hated that house. and move near the Philadium ,

      1. Tommy was the bartender Eddie was the cook at the The Philaduim . Good place ,great food , get your lucky # .

  55. Trade for real may include JP, Sixto, Cehe , Pivetta , Machado , Britton, Brach, Jones . Seems that LA almost had a deal done . Phillies called said Sixto In play . They were scared LA would have been Machado choice after the season.
    Which could be true . LA has a Money and team .

    1. I didn’t see those names/packages anywhere, Tim. I highly doubt Baltimore trades Machado PLUS other chips together when they would maximize the value of each separately.

  56. Nope USA Today put the First article out . The second link I couldn’t get too work . It was behind a pay wall.

    1. According to Heyman, Phils would be “amenable” to dealing a combination of “elite arms like Sixto” along with lower tier pitchers and up-and-coming infielders (Gamboa?).

        1. First of all … chances are very good/excellent that Dan Duquette leaked that info/fake news to pressure the Dodgers and other potential trade partners to up their offers.
          Secondly … “elite arm” more likely means Enyel De Los Santos rather than Sixto Sanchez or Adonis Medina.
          Lastly … you gotta’ remember Manny Machado can be had for straight up cash five months from now. The Phillies aren’t winning the WS this season with or w/o MM. If top pitching prospects like Sanchez and Medina are burning a hole in Matt Klentak’s pocket, why not spend them on a player who will arrive with multiple years of team control ?

          1. Hinkie, you’re normally my go to guy around here but I am not conceding the season. Nobody in the NL has impressed me as favorites to represent in the WS. I also think that acquiring MM by trade in July improves our chances of re-signing him. The Cubs, Dodgers and any other big market teams have the same advantage IMO.

            1. The pool of possible WS winners consists of:

              Yankees
              Red Sox
              Astros
              Indians
              Cubs
              Nationals

              One of those half dozen teams will win the WS.
              Mariners, DBacks, and Dodgers are all on the fringe, and could move into the first group with the help of a trade (or two). MM to one of those eight teams makes the most sense.

              Also … Machado is going to test the FA market after the season, and he will sign with the team who offers him the most money (Phillies).

              Listen … I’m not saying I would not trade for MM. I’m just saying my offer would not include Sixto Sanchez or Adonis Medina. Those guys are either going to pitch for me … or … be dealt for a player who will arrive with multiple years of team control.

              .

              Here’s my outline for a Manny Machado trade …

              CAN’T TRADE:
              Alec Bohm, Logan Simmons, Dominic Pipkin (or anyone else drafted this month).

              WON’T TRADE:
              Sixto Sanchez, Adonis Medina, Jhailyn Ortiz, JP Crawford, Scott Kingery, Nick Pivetta, Zach Efflin, Vince Velasquez, Ser-Ant’ny.

              HOPE NOT TO TRADE (BUT MIGHT CONSIDER):
              Francisco Morales, Kevin Gowdy, Spencer Howard, Jo Jo Romero

              My offer would start with Maikel Franco and Enyel De Los Santos.
              I would let Baltimore pick one of Cole Irvin or Ranger Saurez …
              and pick one from our heavy inventory of young SS’s Gamboa/Maton/Guzman/Brayan Gonzales/Luis Garcia

              IMO … that’s more than a fair offer.

            2. Hinkie, that’s an excellent breakdown and yes, I don’t want to (nor think we should have to) trade Sixto or Medina either.

          2. @Hinkie – I agree on everything you say. Smoke screens are norm during the trade deadline or draft. This is a proven strategy to gauge and maximize the trade returns from a selling team/GM. Klentak is not a high roller or a gunslinger so I doubt he will swing thru the fences.

            I expect most here are attached with delos Santos because of the current performance, but this will be a sell high opportunity for Klentak. Eflin is another sell high opportunity.

            I’ve said this before that 2 controllable arms (delos Santos + Lively/Taveras/ Eshelman) + another player with upside (Gamboa) should get Klentak Machado.

            1. I’d trade Medina before I would trade DLS. I would also trade Ortiz in a heartbeat. I think you do the Orioles dirty to say your trade starts with Franco.

              Back in the day the Mets and Giants exchanged Beltran for Wheeler and more recently JD Martinez retrieved Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.

              Somewhere between those two deals is the Machado deal.

            2. @DMAR – so do you believe that DLS is the better prospect than Medina? If yes, you’re the only one I know who believes that.

            3. I do Kuko in the sense that DLS is closer and has a really sound floor. Medina may have the higher ceiling.

              It’s crazy to me that DLS gets no respect around here. 22 at AAA with a 1.73 ERA 9.2 K/9 and a 1.068 WHIP

            4. @DMAR – if you go back to the pre-season threads, I actually ranked delos Santos as high as #7 above Kilome. I lobbied for delos Santos in the pre-season ranking so I’m not looking at him lightly.

              But I’m also not one of the “what have you done to me lately” guys who reacts based on the current performance of a prospect. I prefer to focus on abilities and body of work rather than the selected minor league stats.

              Honestly, I haven’t seen delos Santos pitch in person, but most of the reports I’m been reading is very consistent — can throw up to mid-90s FB with very good CU but the breaking balls are still developing. As Hinkie said, delos Santos is Eflin-like.

              I’m frequent in LWD last year because of Sixto and Medina and I watched Medina at least 3 times. I’ve seen how Medina developed his loopy CB to a tight SL and seen him pitch all his pitching arsenal. Medina is really good. Medina doesn’t have the exploding FB like Sixto and Seranthony, but he is accurate in hitting his spots. His improved SL is nasty and his CU is only behind Taveras and Ranger.

              If you’re opinion is based on 2018 statistics – then you’re doing disservice to both prospects.

            5. @DMAR – both delos Santos and Medina will be added in the 40-man by the end of the season. As far as proximity is concerned, I don’t think that Enyel is way ahead of Medina. Without a consistent breaking ball, Enyel will bounce back and forth between the Phillies and LHV just like Eflin, Lively, Jake, etc.

              Medina’s stuff is probably better than most of the back end starters currently pitching in the MLB. But the Phills will wisely continue Medina’s development in AAA/AA for another year while utilizing the current stable of arms (Eflin, Lively, Ranger, Taveras, Anderson, Eshelman, Kilome) to figure out who stays in the rotation, who moves to the pen or who needs to be pitching for another team.

          3. Let’s not forget that DLS is Klentak’s best get to date and for Galvis none the less. He’s not likely to trade the one guy in the system he can point to and say that was my doing. If he does then I view it as a really strong sign they will get Manny in the offseason.

            But we absolutely agree they should deal for a RF and stay out of the Manny sweeps if they get too costly. Castellanos and his 873 OPS (134 OPS+) is the guy.

  57. Nola looked great last night again that’s a TOR pitcher period. His ball moves so much the umpire misses the call.
    Franco getting hot , the Phillies need a good defensive Catcher . One that can block a ball in the dirt late in games.

    1. Nola is throwing his FB harder last night sitting mostly in 93-94 and touching 95 twice. Nola K’s Harper 3x with a knee buckling CB, froze him with a dancing 2S and showing a CB to set up a high 4S FB.

      Tim C is correct. There’s a lot of missed call wherein the umpire calling BB instead of Ks. Nola is hitting the edge of the plate but being called BB.

  58. they just need to get another reliever or 2 in here ASAP for the sake of seranthony’s arm- cant blame Kapler right now for not having confidence in anyone else.

    1. Raef715 I rather lose the game then kill that kids arm. He is too valuable going forward. But kapler is a moron him and Sheldon.

  59. Somewhere on the bench last night, Jake Arrieta had to be mumbling, “Why don’t I get this kind of defensive support when I’m on the mound?” The left side of the IF was very good.

  60. We have batted this around all season, and I still am not trading Sixto. I don’t think MM makes us a WS contender, he is not signing an extension, and whether we win the Division or a WC does not matter enough to me to trade any of our top guys. Sixto, Kingery are off limits and if Franco and De Los Santos are not enough then I pass. They don’t get Ranger or Cole Irvin added. Again, my reasoning is that trading for him in July increases our chances of signing him long term by a factor of zero.

  61. Hinkie, there is a story in the Ringer on your guy Blake Snell. His goal is to be the lef thanded Max Scherzer. I spend a great deal to get him.

    1. @matt13 – i’m certain that most if not all of the MLB goal is to be like one of the MLB greats in the past. I will only spend a great deal to get Blake Snell if he’s already Max Scherzer and by that time, he’s already a free agent so the Phillies doesn’t need to throw the farm to get a Max Scherzer-like Blake Snell.

      I’m OK acquiring Blake Snell but not at all cost so Sixto and Medina are off limits. The “great deal” or “at all cost” approach I will do is to acquire a proven MLB stud like Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado and the likes,

      The Phils is thin with high end arms – so don’t give up the only 2 potential arms that they have unless they get proven a MLB stud like Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado and the likes (I will say this number of times if I have to).

      If the Phils needs proven top end arms that will anchor the staff, FA is the best avenue to get it.

      2018-19 FAs – Keuchel, Corbin
      2019-20 FAs – Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, MadBum
      2020-21 FAs – Kershaw, Carrasco, deGrom, Paxson, Ray, Skaggs

      1. again, I’m not anti-Blake Snell because I agree that the Phillies (or any teams) need to arms to anchor their rotation. The Phillies should be thinking long term, so I just don’t think that the Phillies need to give up a potential top arm (and some more) for another top arm because it looks like a wash with the Phils to be in the losing because of the other talents they have to give up.

        And also, Blake Snell should learn to stop giving too many free passes!! He is a BB machine (Minors = 4.3 BB/9, MLB = 4.7 BB/9) — those free passes might hurt the Phillies in their playoff run.

    1. I know that McPhail preach growing arms but I can’t help looking at the next 3 offseason to check out the available arms.

      I can see Corbin to be NYY-bound and I’m actually OK if the Phils didn’t sign a FA arm this offseason (since I want them to sign Kikuchi like Hinkie suggested) as long as they focus their resources to acquire a legitimate bat (Machado, Harper).

      Max Scherzer becomes Max Scherzer at the age of 28/29, otherwise, ARI will not trade him away.

  62. We have 26 games scheduled in July:
    1 vs Nats (this Sunday 7/1)
    3 vs LAD
    2 vs Bosox
    20 vs sub-.500 teams

    We should win 15-18 barring an offensive funk or regression by the starting rotation. A quality reliever or 2 added would help. Plus Neshek returning. A minimum of 60 W’s by Aug 1 puts us in good shape for the division. Last 10 days of Sept, 7 vs Braves!

  63. 8mark … I’m the eternal optimist, and I agree that the schedule looks favorable, but let’s take them one game at a time. As bad as the bullpen looks right now, it will right itself. Going into the season, you, I, and everybody else thought the bullpen would be the teams strength. We weren’t wrong. These guys are decent pitchers, with a pretty good track record from last year. It’s a slump, and we get Neshek back in a couple of days.

  64. Arenado says he’s “sick of losing.” Under team control next season. What would you offer the Rockies?

    1. Arenado is like Machado of last year or the Kawhi Leonard in the NBA. He’s in control for only one year and prefers to sign with LAD (he’s a SoCal kid growing up as LAD fan).

      So without the certainty of signing an extension, the Arenado market will follow the Machado market. Between Arenado and Machado, the Phils will have a better chance of signing Machado if $$ are the same.

    2. Careful with Arenado. If you check his home and away splits, he may not be much more than a product of Coors Field. Still a good player, just let’s not overvalue him.

  65. sorry if this has been covered: see Jim updated injury tracker (maybe awhile ago) that Quinn had finger ligament surgery on 5/21. My friend the internet tells me recovery time is 12 weeks to 6 months…. assume he is done for season. Anyone remember what his team control options are? of course maybe i’m wrong as i don’t know what finger on what hand.

    1. Quinn’s latest injury (in May 2018) was a torn ligament in the middle finger of his right hand, which is his throwing hand. After the surgery on May 21, it was reported that Quinn would be out 6 to 8 weeks. So hopefully he will be back in mid to late July and not miss the rest of the season.

      Just to recap, Quinn has never played more than 92 games in a season since joining the Phillies organization. That was in 2016 and includes 15 games with the Phillies in September.

  66. Fangraphs has added 2018 J2 prospects to their big board.

    Starlyn Castillo checks in at #18 and they project him to get paid 1.5 million dollars … The Phillies haven’t shied away from paying physically mature prospects big bucks on the IFA market. Castillo is a thick-torsoed righty with premium arm strength and a workable delivery. His breaking stuff is inconsistent and needs to be tightened. This is an arm strength/arm action/athlete buy without present feel for spin or physical projection, but Philly has had recent success with arms like this.

    The only other Phillie on their top 35 is 6’4″, 180 lb RHP Fernando Ortega at #33. They say the Phils will spend 575 thousand dollars on him.

    This is a good time to remind everybody that Matt Klentak will most likely announce a couple/few trades early next week (probably Tuesday) that will send excess prospects to other teams for supplemental J2 dollars. IMO … Jose Taveras may be one of those excess prospects dealt. Might even see some of 2017’s day 3 draft picks sent out for international money. I’ve got my fingers crossed jaKe the caKe isn’t one of them 😦

      1. MLB’s Jesse Sanchez, has Castillo as the second best pitcher in this class to Gallardo,from the Ven, and a lot higher ranking @number 8 than BA’s ranking.

      1. His DRS is close to the best in the majors…that is not a detractor.
        And his away career splits slash of 265/.321/.474 with 70HRS and 94 doubles in 400 games is not terrible….and has improved from his rookie and 2nd year marks. and have trended upward his last three years.
        it would be interesting to know what the average away splits are for third basemen with 5 or more years experience in the majors and how Arenado compares.

      1. Gotta’ disagree with you on that, Guru. The Phillies have the prospects and financial might to make a competitive offer on almost any player they have interest in/want. That said … I’m pretty sure MM is their guy for 3B going forward (meaning beginning this winter … if not July).

        1. You’re very positive about the Phillies and that’s great, but until the Phillies flex their financial might (which they haven’t done by the way), I will wait and see what happens.

  67. I already moved on from Altherr. I’m glad to see Cozens in the RF tonight. Cozens has high risk written all over him, but if he becomes viable, he will fill 2 big voids in the line up — RF and LH bat in the middle of the order — a big void that a Bryce Harper can fill.

    1. I’ve been a big Altherr guy until now but he strikes me as “too nice” if you get what I mean. He seems complacent. I don’t sense that fire in his belly, competitively, much like another exceptional athlete named John Mayberry Jr who never became a major league impact player.

      1. If Altheer doesn’t cut it or become an “impact player” (which is very possible), it won’t be due to complacency or lack of “fire in belly”. It will be due to insufficient hitting skill, same as Mayberry.

      2. What a ridiculous generalization to make… how on earth can you assume he is not working his ass off to be a better hitter???

        1. I’m not assuming anything. I do apologize for offending your sensitivities, Rip.

          Anyway, I am more concerned with who he (and Williams) are working their asses off with. It seemed their approach at the plate last year brought better results.

      3. For whatever reason(s), hitters react differently to hitting coaches. Last season’s hitting coach (Matt Stairs) was at Phantasy Camp and voiced the opinion that some of our young guys were making progress under his tutelage and he would have loved to continue working with them. He would have liked seeing his new employers try to acquire a couple of them … if they became available.

  68. I think that is his mannerisms the way he carries himself….like Hoskins, JPC, Eflin, Nola and Mike Schmidt.
    Looking for an Utley or Pete Rose in a player anymore requires a strong magnifying glass.

  69. Pivetta no # 2 12 hr in not even 100 ings pitched. He’s going backwards . Can’t leave a FB out over the plate to Turner and Soto.

    1. Just when you think Pivetta has turned the corner, he reverts back to the old Nick. Zero confidence, trying to be too fine

  70. Bring Neshek up dfr Rios . Bring Liebrandt send down Neris . Wait on Dyer , Singer , Gilbert, Leftwich.

  71. Pivetta’s 4.71 ERA tells me that while he has had very good outings so far this season, his bad ones have been awful. He and Velasquez must reach a level of consistency if they are going forward with them as rotation pieces beyond 2018. Nola and Eflin give me a measure of confidence that they’ll at least keep you in a game. Arrieta, Pivetta and Velasquez??? Russian roulette. Let’s go get a seasoned arm for good measure. I’m in for Happ, Hamels, even Duffy from KC has rebounded from a slow start. Maybe pair him with Moose in a package?

    1. Agree with Duffy to a certain extent….5 of his last 7 starts have been the Duffy of old with quality starts.
      But I would temper the return to KC in prospects.
      However with Moustakas also in the trade I am sure they will want a fair share of prospects in return.

    2. Arietta has had proven track record of success . Pivetta ,VV, have yet to put a hole season together.

    3. Pivetta’s last six starts….5 horrific starts one good outing vs the Cardinals.
      June has been a tough month for him.

      1. yes, 7.71 era with 8 homers given up.
        3 starts against the Nats this year 7 2/3 ip, 20 h, 7bb, 6hr, 17.61 era…

  72. Some people were putting Pivetta as a #2 . A #2 in a rotation doesn’t have a month . They have maybe 2 or 3 bad outings but Pivetta lasted 5 outs against a division rival. The night before Nola put the Phillies on his back and carried them To a win.that what Aces do . The Phillies did score 7 runs that enough to win most games.

    1. Pivetta needs to go on the 10 day DL….just to regroup himself, clear his head..
      All-star break comes up in a few weeks and have him start off fresh.
      He can do a rehab start with the Iron Pigs on July 8th, take his normal days off during the break, and start back in the Phillies rotation on the weekend of the 13th/14th

      1. I was wrong on those dates….break is the 16th thru the 19th. So I would have Pivetta off until an away start vs the Marlins on that last weekend before the all-star break.

      2. Question: How much longer do we give VV and Pivetta?

        VV has had several years. Pivetta is in Year Two.

        We love their velocity. We love their “stuff.” We love it when they’re on. But….

        1. Right now, Eflin’s the #3 starter. He, Velasquez, and Pivetta are still developing. For the last 2 pitchers in the rotation, they’re okay for now. Personally, I’m more concerned about Arrieta.

  73. If the wise-guy sports writers of the 1970s were still around, they might have come up with the name Nick Piñata.

    1. Now Frank…that is creatively comical and perhaps it would rub the player the wrong way….and then he would avoid talking to the press….just like they did in the 70s if I remembered correctly.

  74. This regime is more likely to aggressively promote/push their top prospects, unless they are blocked (with possible exception of Kingery). De Los Santos and Irvin are primed at AAA but who knows how long they will go with Pivetta and Velasquez. Continued regression or an injury, even a slight short term one to the rotation, would otherwise open a door for either of them.

  75. Looks like VV is still headed to the DL. With all these off days, VV’s next start can be pushed out further. And on ESPN, July 9th is VV’s next start.

  76. willans astudillo promoted by the Twins; got a hit at Wrigley today.

    angelo mora in AAA for the Dodgers- with the greatest month of his career- 346-3-22.

    still quite surprised the Phils pulled todays game out- great win.

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