Open Discussion: Week of June 17, 2018

The Phillies are 37-32 .536, they are 4.0 games back in the division and 0.5 games back for the wild card.

On this date last year, they were 22-45 .328, 19.5 games back in the division and 20.0 games back for the wild card.

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for baseball topics.

 

539 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of June 17, 2018

  1. So the Phillies are 16 games ahead of last season in the win department. Hmm 11 games until 81 games played . So let’s say the go 6 and 5 for the next 11. That will put them at 6 games over .500 at mid season . Let’s say the Phillies can match that over the second half . That would be 12 over .500 for the yr 93 wins .

    The Phillies are down by 4 to the Braves . However the Braves have 2 more games played. the Phillies play the Nats at the end of the WK. There miss the Nats Aces . The Phillies could come out of this WK at with a 500 record.next wk is the killer The Yanks then the Nats again at home.
    July starts of easy.

      1. Math is just not right … 93 wins would make them 93-69 … that would be 24 games over .500 …

        1. Tom: 24 wins over .500 is 81 + 24 = 105 wins or 105 – 57! 93 wins is 12 wins above .500. However 12 more wins than losses is only 6 wins above .500. Number of extra wins to losses is twice the number of wins above .500 for an even number of total games.

          1. Okay, this is driving me nuts.

            If you ever want to know how many games the Phillies are projected to win, just go back to your HS math. Multiple the number of games they have won (38) by 162 and the divide that number by the number of games they have played (71). This formula predicts they are on a pace to win 86.7 games – which we round up to 87. So even if they just stay on this pace, they should be in the hunt for the second WC unless a few WC contenders really take off as happened a few years ago in the NL Central when the poor Pirates won 98 games, the Cubs won 97 and they both finished behind the Cardinals. Historically, however, they would be in the WC hunt at this pace.

      2. It’s 81 wins + 6 wins and 81 – 6 less losses = 87- 75. 87 – 75 = 12 or 12 more wins than losses. 81 – 81 record is .500 ball. You are confusing number of wins over .500 versus number of more wins than losses.

    1. Tim…….month of July the Phillies will fly….may jump to the top of the division.
      They play the Padres/Mets/Orioles/Reds/Marlins and Pirates…total of 19 games…start the month with one Nats game…, three Dodgers at home and two in Boston to end the month.
      The only worry for the Phillies …only 7 home games of the 25.
      Braves on the other hand, end June going into July with 18 difficult games.

      1. Correct that I’m looking at Phillies could be In first but the trade deadline.Romus even if they don’t make a move by trade . The Mets and Marlins are going to unload.the Phillies play them alot in the second half along with the Padres.

  2. Tim, they are currently 37-32, with TWELVE (12) games until 81 (midway). Did you remove your slippers and use your toes to break this down?

      1. Let me just say, I will be THRILLED if they win 86 games this year and finish 10 over. That would be a terrific transition year.

  3. Good to see Batman (Hoskins) and Robin (Kingery) starting to enjoy the warmer temperatures.

    Nice job by Kapler using Franco against a pitcher he’s hit before. It would be ideal if his trade value could get a bump up with a few productive weeks.

    Neris has lost almost all value to get anything in return. He might wind up being DFA’d. An ERA of 6.00 (which doesn’t even account for inherited runners scoring) for a reliever at this point of the season is fatal.

    1. Neris can go down to AAA and figure it out. Phillies aren’t sellers this yr. Maybe buyers maybe not . However the Marlins and Mets might be the biggest sellers in baseball . That will help the Phillies because they play them alot in the second half.

  4. The Phillies looked good finally a 3rd baseman playing 3rd,A SS playing SS . Cehe looking tired so maybe super sub gives him a day off. Kingery might benefit from playing days a WK. They have find out what they have in JP bat.

  5. I agree with Romus that once we get through the next four series, our July schedule presents us with a great opportunity.

    If you use last week’s ESPN power rankings, we are 15-20 against the 13 teams above us and 22-12 against everyone else. Hopefully, we feast on these teams once again.

  6. Wouldn’t mind seeing them us some of the surplus pitching like Lively in trade to upgrade the major league bullpen, very concerned they are going to overuse Seranthony.
    any reason why they’re not using Ramos later in games?

      1. @Haris S. – what’s your deal with Ramos? Ramos got stuff to be high leverage pen arm and only pitched for 123 innings for a team that’s not expected to win. Winning under pressure comes with experience which Ramos doesn’t have enough and the Phils need to be relevant again to test and see if their players can really perform under pressure.

        This is what a development years are supposed to do – to evaluate the skills of your players and determine who can do what.

        1. Development your relievers in the minors. Ramos stuff either doesn’t show up or it isn’t under control when needed. If you want to keep him as a middle innings guy, he’s ok therea nd maybe gets better. Bring him in now in the 8th or 9th inning and you can hear the whole stadium going “Oh, noooo!”

          1. did you actually experience that? did that happen in the minors or majors? if it happened in the minors, i don’t believe you because I’ve seen him in REA and LHV and he’s not that bad.

            And for the majors, i think it’s too early to tell. the 2017 sub-performance i think is more on coaching affecting his performance than natural ability.

            Actually, I’ve said it here that I’m more concerned with Luis Garcia and Hector Neris (i like them traded) eventhough they are performing well last year.

            If Ramos is properly coached and the catching calls a good play, Ramos will be a reliable arm.

      1. GMs just don’t value stats. There’s more to just statistical numbers in evaluating trades and players. And the value “good” is purely subjective.

        As i’ve always said, market dictates value. If Klentak can find a team that looks for a cost controlled back end starter that’s not injury prone, then Klentak can get some good value for Lively or whoever. Even if Klentak received IFA $$ bonus, 2 low A prospects, bench player, etc. — that’s still value since Klentak acquired something that the organization can utilize.

            1. Ah yes..Chickies and Petes crab fries with their special sauce spread,is to die for.
              But next time you go…Bulls BBQ is no longer in CF, thats the kids baseball playground area now, Bull’s place is in LF corner back end of ballpark near Harry’s statue….but ribs on the menu…no crow.

          1. yeah, spin it away. nobody says that Lively will be a center piece of any trade. if you try to do something, make the condition reasonable.

  7. Franco and Nick Williams are so frustrating. They’ll have games where they seem to be on the verge of tapping into their potential and then they fall right back into same bad hitting habits.
    I guess the inconsistency is why they haven’t excelled yet

  8. Franco tries to pull everything. Terrible approach. Even the single with the bases loaded he got lucky and hit it off end of bat. He was trying to pull that pitch. All you need is a slider or curve and he is toast.

  9. Attended my first Pigs game Saturday. Beautiful ball park horrible parking set-up. Chuckled when I saw Rusney Castillo’s name in the line-up. Might he be at $72.5 million the richest Int’l player?

    Drew Anderson was solid through 7. Sat 92-94 most of the night. Meneses though not much of a prospect has that sound off his bat that is really loud.

  10. As I see it, the Phillies rebuild is a year ahead of schedule. The Phillies are finding answers about several players, while contending. One thing we learned yesterday is that Neris doesn’t belong on a ML roster anymore. There’s no need to trade him for a case of beer, or DFA him, but he needs to be sent to Lehigh to work on his stuff, and confidence. The effect of having everybody (except Hoskins) playing their natural positions, and the team scoring 10 runs was not lost on me. Hopefully, Gabe will trot out the same line up tonight, but don’t bet on it.

    1. It is a year ahead of schedule (sort of) but the hitting is a big concern. There are almost no hitting prospects in the middle to upper minors and the young hitters in the big leagues are struggling mightily. By comparison, the starting pitching is way ahead of where I thought it would be and that is good – plus the pitching depth in the minors is staggering.

      1. “There are almost no hitting prospects in the middle to upper minors’…but that is the way it should be, especially if they were doing their strategic planning the correct way
        .
        The current crop of ….Hoskins/Kingery/Williams/JPC/Alfaro and then add into the mix Cozens/Knapp and at one time Quinn…were all suppose to graduate to this level now, as they have..
        And will take some time to develop into MLB hitters….if they are ever going to do it
        .
        There is no sense in have 3/4 more MLB ready position prospects in LHV ready to push them out.

        That surplus just creates more of what is happening now at the MLB level.
        AND….they do not have a Dipoto or Domdrowki at the helm to cull all the prospects for better veterans.

      2. Ideally the team needs rightfield and a left side of the infield bats figuring the combo of JP and kingery can take the other spot.
        obviously Machado works perfectly in the one role. Not sure who fits as a rightfielder.
        I would play Williams mainly in RF for now to learn more even though his metrics aren’t the best
        he seems to have a lot more spark and spurts than Alther
        I think we know enough about Alther to know he is really a 4th Of .
        Neris needs to go back to LVH to find himself.

  11. in terms of what they needed to accomplish, this yr is a success so far. They are over .500, in the race and yet we are finding out about many of our pitching and hitting prospects.
    its just seems so ugly and disjointed because of all the moving of players around and when they win a series, like the last 2, it feels like a loss because the actual losses are so damn ugly

  12. Romus … Your last sentence says it all. Klentak has done well with the trading, and FA signing part of his job, but parlaying some of the young talent into a couple more core pieces is his next step. Eflin has been a revelation this year. I expected nothing from him at the start of the season, and now he’s a solid #3 or #4. I was one of the posters that insisted that Velasquez’ future was in the bullpen, and I’m glad that I was wrong. He’ll probably never pitch a complete game, but when he is on, he’s awesome. With an awful lot of patience from the front office, Pivetta, Eflin, and Velasquez have developed.
    The offense has been awful at times, but Crawford, Hoskins, Alfaro, Kingery, and Williams are still developing. As fans we need to have patience, and give these guys a little more time.

    1. We do need to give them more time, but we also need more prospects in the system pushing them. The system is really bad right now on the offensive side. There’s not one single player in the system now (I’m excluding Bohm) where you look at him and have a high degree of confidence that he will be a first division regular and make no doubt about it – this team needs to be in the business of developing first division regulars. That’s how you get great and stay great.

      1. I’m not down on the team as a whole. The minor league pitching has been great and there are some younger position players in the majors who might come through. But hitting is a serious weakness of the system right now.

      2. The current situation is the result of some of the misses from the FO side such as:

        1) Not investing enough in IFA market pre-2014. IFA pre-2014 are the ones who should be contributing in the majors right now —- some notable players include Torres, Devers, Jimenez, etc.

        2) Failure to hit in R4 draft in 2015 and 2016 – these prospects are either knocking in the door steps of majors, if contributing already in the majors. For the Phils, Kingery is the only position player who has a clear path to the majors. The 10 position player drafted in Days 1-2 of 2015/2016 don’t look like major league players at all.

        3) Identifying the by low hidden gems (ala Jayson Werth) in the FA — although this one needs some luck. Klentak mostly concentrate of fungible pen arms.

        1. KuKo:
          “Not investing enough in IFA market pre-2014″….huh?
          Tocci in ’11 @ $750K
          Pujols and Grullon @ >$500K apiece ib’12
          Encarnacion @ $1M in ’13

          …right now Grullon looks like the only one who could contribute.
          Torres, Devers, Jimenez, Mozara were all million plus signings.
          But guys like Acuna, Albies, Mateo, Robles, Margot Soto et al were not the $2/3 M signings.
          The IFA scouting has not produced the psotion players of impactful value yet.
          Ortiz at $4M may be one.

          1. @romus – are those big enough for you? It’s not for a big market team like the Phillies. I think it is not a secret that Phillies was never been a big player in the IFA pre-2014.

            1. Actually yes they are fairly high price tags, when yuo consider quite a few Latin players ghave become relevant for half that amount or less….even Franco was only $100K..
              The real drought for the Phillies in the IFA market was from the two Korean pitchers signings in 2002 or there about, to the Toccs signing in July 2011.
              When it comes to position players….Phillies have not particularly well.
              Cesar, Freddy, Chooch and Franco may be exceptions to that….and all of them were low signing bonus players

        2. Good summary. I agree completely. It’s not just FA hidden gems but hidden gems in trades. Dodgers picked up Turner and Taylor on below-the-radar deals that turned out great. The Phillies haven’t done a great value acquisition since Odubel.

  13. The rumor mills are starting to churn, and early word are the Yankees and Mariners making a play for J.A. Happ. I wonder if the Blue Jays can get a top 100 prospect for Happ.

  14. Neris has lost “it” and Garcia lost “it” before him. Their arms are tired for sure. I expect Neris to go DL soon too. Neshak should help soon and Hunter is getting a little better. Curtis is still on the 40 and will be up next I guess.
    Concerning to me, what has happened to Edgar Garcia at Reading? He was lights out for months and looked ready for a jump to LHV and maybe a later jump to Philly. All of a sudden, he hasn’t had a clean inning in quite a while. He keeps giving up homers. He looks very tired. I hope he’s not hurt. Keep the arms coming.

  15. Fyi – Stobbe is on the DL with the same hamstring issue he had before. He’ll be out for awhile now.

  16. Mets are now saying that they are “open for business”. That said, you will still have to pony up a mint (think a top 50 prospect and a top 100 prospect) for Syndergaard or DeGrom.

    1. Especially to a division rival. the Muts will squeeze every penny before they complete a trade with the Phils. Thor and deGrom will have a big and sizeable market so the Phils will be forced to deal their top prospects and some young guys.

  17. Looks like Justin Miller, drafted as a pitcher our of high school in 2016, has been switched to the OF. Currently 2 for 3 in the opening game of the GCL season. This must have happened after spring training because I saw him pitch in March.

    1. I posted the same thing in the Clearwater recap thread. After looking into it further, I believe MiLB.com is mistaking Luke Miller (this year’s 22nd round pick from Indiana U) with Justin Miller.

    2. Correction. The box score originally listed Justin Miller in the OF. It has been corrected to show Luke Miller, a drafted kid from Indiana.

    1. It’s really hard to get excited with the prospects below Low A. Unless a prospect has elite tools and all-star upside, I normally wait and see until the prospects reach and perform in A+ above.

      There are a lot of prospects that perform well at ROK level then fizzle out above A class.

      1. I agree
        I take a peak at Lakewood but I really start following prospects once they hit Clearwater unless its like a high draft pick

        1. srussell….keep an eye out for GCL Phillies RFer 6’8″ Carlos De La Cruz.
          He could be a pleasant surprise.
          Perhaps he will change his name to Giancarlos Cruz. 🙂

  18. If the Phillies can win today , the Nats Los both against the Yanks they have a split game to make up. The Phillies will be in a Wild card spot.

    1. Austin Davis was promoted.

      Jim Salisbury✔
      @JSalisburyNBCS
      Phillies have sent Hector Neris to Triple A and selected contract of LHP Austin Davis from Triple A

      3:12 PM – Jun 18, 2018

      1. I like Austin Davis. Big lefty that can throw up to mid-90s with good breaking ball. Davis can take both LH and RH out but not a shut down pen arm yet. Control is mostly OK although can get out of touch at times.

        I like the potential if he developed into a better pitcher. With his size, the velocity can go up and he is not overthrowing his pitch so pitching for strikes consistently can be achieved.

          1. Tim is a long time poster here, and we all understand him. We all make spelling mistakes. This is about getting the info out there not an English class.

            1. I agree. And, while I do not always agree with his comments/thoughts, he at least has his opinions and shares them..

            2. Thanks you very much guys class acts. LoL this is a Philly site. If you ever heard the language coming from the 700 sections of the Eagles games you would think Philly knew very little Engish. LoL

        1. Austin Davis has a good arm. But so does Adam Morgan. We will see. Certainly, Neris needed to be demoted.

        2. Austin Davis will need to be added to the 40.
          Will someone be DFAed now?
          Is someone going to be placed on the 60-day DL?

          1. @romus – the roster is at 39 after Hutchinson was outrighted to LHV and signed with another team so there’s space for Austin Davis.

            No move is also necessary other optioning somebody like Thompson or Rios to make room for Neshek.

            1. Yes…39 with Eichkoff on the 60…he does not count right now
              Understand he is getting cortisone shots…..so he may start a rehab soon
              Once that occurs then someone will need to be moved off it.

          2. Jim’s spreadsheet double counted Mark Leiter so it looks like it’s 40-man. Eickhoff is the only player in 60-DL.

  19. Wow, it’s not like he didn’t deserve it, but seeing Neris get sent down is still a shock. He hasn’t been in the minors since 2015.

  20. Wait so maybe now Jeff Singer gets the promotion. That would be great a local guy getting his chance.

    1. promotion to the majors? Singer is way below the pecking order in the roster protection as the 40-man will continue to be tight.

      1. No AAA that’s all the way be throwing being a LHP .he could be a big Surprise later in the season.

      1. Maybe but Singer seems to have more control &Command this yr . He does throw his FB at 97so there’s that.he was Clearwater closer Las yr.

        1. Singer needs to outperform Tyler Gilbert whose probably the prospect in front of him as far as lefty options considering also that Gilbert can throw multiple innings.

          Honestly, I like to see Singer over the Curtis. Singer is a local guy who has something to prove so he will have a lot of fight in him when he pitched for the Phils.

  21. Neshek’s last BP session went well and scheduled to throw live BP again this Wednesday. Hunter and Neshek are signed to stabilize the young bullpen and i think the pen will be back in order if these 2 vets get their act together.

    Hunter has been good for the month of June and supposed to be good in eliminating LH hitters. And if Neshek is closed to the Neshek that pitched last year, that’s big. Hunter, Neshek and Seranthony can anchor the bullpen in high leverage situations.

    Ramos and Arano are young arms that has closer stuff but needs experience and opportunity with high leverage innings. If the starters can get the game close, both Ramos and Arano will have their chance as long as Kapler doesn’t go out of the way to screw their development.

    Morgan should be fine as a lefty reliever. He’s been good except for the 2 bad games against CHC and MIL.

    Davis is not blowing everybody in AA/AAA but I really like his potential. If not injured, he’s probably highly considered to be protected in the 40-man last November. Davis has better stuff than Milner and Curtis.

  22. Who comes off the 40 man roster for Davis?

    I’m thinking either Quinn or Florimon to the 60 Day DL.
    I hope Davis does well. Before this call up I was looking at Zach Duke as a possible trade target for the Phillies.

      1. Shame that kid just cant stay healthy. Time to let him go and move on. but with his speed he had a shot to be a real help to this team.

        1. True. I’ve seen him at the Complex. He’s ready to return to action. It’s a shame his injury occurred when it did. I’m sure he would have been called up when Hoskins went on the DL.

  23. So my buddy, the Blue Jays fan, told me that the Blue Jays went WAY over slot in signing their 3rd round pick (Adam Kloffenstein) to the point where they likely won’t sign their second round pick (Griffin Conine). If this happened here, would there be an uproar?

    1. Guru and it should be a uproar. So if blue jays are stupid, it has nothing to do with us. Do you work for the phillies in the Customer relations office. Sure sounds like it,

      1. Look, people think that when the Phillies make blunders, that we’re the only ones that do it. And I’ve said on many occasions, other teams do the exact same thing.

        1. I’m sure that every team make blunders but we only talked about the Phillies because that’s the only team we spent time to actually know and understand what they are doing. You only know of the decisions of another teams once it made the national news or you intentionally go to their local sourced news.

          1. So I just proved my point didn’t I? We scream and shout about the other teams doing better than us, but there are teams doing a lot worse than we are. Then perhaps we should take a breath and realize that it’s good to be a Phillies fan and not go haywire when we don’t sign a draft pick or don’t give a huge bonus to an international player.

            1. well, is that supposed to be the purpose of the Phillies discussion? to talk about the good, the bad, the ugly and everything about the Phillies?

              isn’t this a phillies site? if someone can bring up some facts about the other teams are reference, then kudos to that person. but i don’t expect anybody to know every move and mistakes that other teams made.

            2. I think the point is to keep things in perspective for the good, the bad, and the ugly as is relates to the Phillies.

    2. According to a TSN report over the weekend they are not that far off:
      “Conine is the only notable name from the Jays’ 2018 draft class that remains unsigned, but he says it’s at the point where they’re just working through some details and he expects the deal to get done shortly. The slot value for his pick is $1.35 million, but the Jays have been creative with their bonus pool, shifting numbers around in order to hand third-round high-school right-hander Adam Kloffenstein first-round money.?

      1. Conine is a JR so he has the opportunity to go back. At this point, he will have to sign for something like $1M, because of all that overslot money.

    1. doubt they would have thought the Phils were going to go get him. Nats gave up some guys they could spare, but the third baseman could wind up starting for KC next year.

  24. JP was supposed to be an excellent defensive SS. Why does he have so many throwing errors?

    1. well, his DL stint was related to his arm, so maybe still an issue? though you wouldnt think they would have him playing third if that was the case.

  25. As many of us have asked about, I think they’re moving Listi to Reading and Martin back to Clearwater

  26. This bullpen needs an overhaul. Great win tonight but how many heart attacks must we suffer with this Russian roulette of a relief staff?

    1. Saw Jim’s post on the minors recap thread that Quinn is healthy and ready for action. Much as I’m glad for Altherr getting that walk off double, let’s get Roman up here and making hay.

    2. So the Phillies have 8 bullpen pitchers. Since Gabe has been using Seranthony early and often, he’s not available tonight. So we’re down to 7 pitchers. Wait! Gabe has also been using Tommy Hunter, so he’s not available. We’re now down to 6 pitchers. We called up Austin Davis, but he’s a rookie and there’s no way he’s going to be used in a pressure situation. We’re down to 5 pitchers. Jake Thompson is the long man (and not really effective), so we’re down to 4 pitchers who Gabe can trust: Ramos, Arano, Rios, Morgan. Seriously? Those 4 pitchers? Gabe’s management of the bullpen just stinks.

      1. St Louis Bp isn’t much better. Seems like slot of teams have Bp problems.
        The offense stopped after the 1st . I hope Nick Williams is ok .

        1. I’m shocked that Bud Norris didn’t go out for a second inning. He only threw 13 pitches.

          Not sure why the Cards didn’t use Hicks or Brebbia.

    3. it’s actually Knapp who almost cost the game. Arano could have struck the side out and end the game with the bullpen posting zero runs. Knapp, a poor defensive catcher, should not let that ball pass that far. Morgan should also need to be smarter and the pen should should start not letting the inherited baserunners score runs.

      This is Nick Pivetta’s game to win. The FB is electric and both breaking balls are sharp. I still want Pivetta to develop a decent CU, but if can consistently throw those breaking balls to mix with the FB, he can stabilize the middle of the rotation.

      1. Knapp’s defensive play is inexcusable! A curve ball in the dirt should not roll through your legs to the wall 20 feet behind you. Bench players can and do cost you games if they are not ML worthy. Knapp needs to be sent down and work a lot of things out.

        As far as a .250 hitting defensive catcher … Alfaro hits (AVE/OBP/OPS) .290/.329/.793 vs RHP and Logan Moore (AAA) is hitting .250/.368/.681 vs. LHP. Alfaro has a CS% of 29% & Moore is at 56% CS and was a AA defensive all star.

        At AAA Alfaro & Moore were the best positional tandem in the organization by far and it makes sense that they would be again if you swap Knapp & Moore.

        … oh and after a slow start Moore is hitting .320/.424/.844 over the last 28 days.

        1. I’ve always liked Knapp, even more so than Alfaro, but his defense has been really bad this year. I don’t know if Moore is the answer but a move at catcher isn’t out of the question. My only thing is how much credit goes to Alfaro and Knapp for VV, Eflin, and Pivetta’s progress?

            1. Logan has a better understanding than most of the mental make up of a pitcher as he grew up with one. You may already know that Logan’s Dad (Brad Moore) was a pitcher within the Phillies org.and made it to the ML for a cup of coffee.

          1. Trenton … I haven’t given up on Knapp yet, but if there is a veteran catcher available at the deadline, I’d make the trade. Knapp can go back to Lehigh, and start fresh next year. I think the young starters have bonded with Alfaro, but not so much the bullpen.

  27. I’ve posted about Ramos and Arano earlier. I can see why others feels that both RPs are crap. But these young arms have good stuff to be really good pen arms. They just need some experience especially in high leverage situations.

    The 9th inning was nerve wracking, but it’s a good experience for Arano until Knapp let that passed ball.

    Once Neshek comes back and Ramos and Arano gained some pressured innings the bull pen will be stabilize. If there’s a hole to fill, it’s going the LOOGY — which hopefully Morgan or Davis can fill. Hunter is supposed to be good in eliminating LH hitters, but we’ll see.

    1. I don’t think they’re crap. That previous post was part of a discussion about why Kap doesn’t use certain pitchers in the 8th and 9th innings. I just don’t think either of these guys is ready to be every day setup man or closer, at least not yet.

  28. If the Phils need to make a big trade, it should be for JT Realmuto. Both Alfaro and Knapp will have value due to offensive potential, but with a young rotation and a tons of young pen arms, the catching/receiving and play calling is critical in close games. I prefer defense first catcher who can hit around 0.250

  29. I don’t have a problem with Gabe giving both Knapp and Franco the start today as a reward for their performance the last time out. Even though Knapp had a RBI hit, he had that brutal ball that he couldn’t corral. Even though Franco made a spectacular defensive play, he rolled over 4 times to 3B. Both these guys are headed back to the bench.

  30. The Royals got very little for Herrera. I expected a bigger return. This is a real steal for the Nats. I would like to see us add Moose. He won’t cost much in prospects, and I think he adds pop to the lineup.

    1. I guess it depends what it costs. He’s certainly better than what they have now, but he really has not been a great offensive player and putting him there impedes their efforts to get their young infielders at bats and develops their skills.

      I’d prefer if the Phillies acquire a true bomber to play right field. Together Altherr and Williams have been bad – so getting a good who is just good would be a big upgrade over what they have. Put a pure hitter there and I think the line-up could take off. To me, that’s an easy add and there are usually outfield power hitters available for a trade deadline deal at reasonable prices.

    2. I like Mous as a potential acquisition but I can see ATL getting him since ATL have the better stable of arms that they can offer KC.

      The Phils can still afford to be patient, although Klentak need to get his act together to resolve the 40-man roster. Trade somebody for value or lose them for nothing.

      1. Personally I’m not interested in Moose. I want to move Franco and stabilize the IF. Kingery is not an every day SS so let’s plant him at 3B and get JP back on SS.

        Allow Valentin to back them both up and as Catch mentions above lets try to find some OPS to plant in RF. Would love to get Castellanos from the Tigres!

        1. DMAR…….Franco for Donaldson, a low-a prospect and a boatload of int’l cash? Then sign Donaldson to a three- year deal.
          And then just hope Donaldson recaptures some of his old magic.

          1. A few months ago Romus I was on board with Josh but not anymore. Injuries are adding up and taking a toll on him.

    3. Herrera was going to be a FA. So for a rental, the Royals essentially got 3 lotto tickets. The Phillies got 1 lotto ticket (Nick Pivetta) for Papelbon.

  31. We spent a couple of weeks talking MM but what about Harper…are the Nats really going to let him walk for nothing?

    I mean I get it they could still sign him in FA but are they willing to take that chance. Soto is looking like a kid that could make them amicable to such a move.

    1. Not sure what’s going to happen here. Nats deal with Scott Boras a lot and the Nats have no qualms about giving big cash (see Max Sherzer).

      1. If you actually take a close look at the deal for Scherzer it’s big money but was structure in a way so the current hit isn’t that big ($15m per season). The Nats issue is that they have a lot of deferred money coming. Scherzer is due $15M per season from 2022 through 2028 so they will pay him $90M AFTER he’s gone. They also have $70M deferred for Strausburg starting in 2024.

        They are currently still paying $2m per season through 2025 to Rafael Soriano and he’s been gone for how long?

        The Nationals have been in win now mode for several seasons now and the window is quickly closing. They are in a difficult situation with Harper based on the age of their roster, pending FAs, and long-term $$ commitments.

          1. The Bobby Bonilla deal comes out to be an 8% interest payment for the defer payment which is not that bad. People forget about the time value of money. One can get 7% return investing long term in index funds with very low risk. The Mets aren’t even handicapped with the ongoing payment. That money due Bonilla each year gets you a low end arb eligible player or a major league replacement level veteran. They won’t be hurting if they replaced that player with player making MLB minimum.

            1. If memory serves, the Bonilla deal was going to be covered by the money they were making with Bernie Madolf’s investment scheme. That didn’t go very well but yes, the Mets are not being hurt much with the $2M they are paying Bonilla every year..

      2. WAS is all in with their WIN-NOW approach and they almost certain to accept the fact that they WIN now while Harper is here or cross whatever kind of bridge that needs to be crossed.

        WAS gave up some really good prospects to support the WIN-NOW approach like in the Adam Eaton, Melancon and Madson-Doolittle trades and signing of Murphy, Werth, etc.

    2. I’d bet my house that the Nationals will not trade Bryce Harper. The Harper/Nationals situation is completely different than the Machado/Orioles situation.
      1. They’re all in this year.
      2. They think they have a real shot at re-signing Harper after the season.

      1. Agree that the Nats fully invested in 2018. As they already have shown, they will be buyers, not sellers.

        1. The Nationals, while remaining very good, have managed to mismanage their excellence and never go a WS which, considering the players they’ve had, is a huge disappointment. They will pull out all the stops this year – I can just feel it.

          FYI – what really happened, and I told my son about it all the time, was that the year they should have gone to the WS, they angered the baseball Gods by pulling Strasburg from the rotation rather than managing him through the year and pushing him a little – that was so stupid and arrogant.

          1. Add in that they also were extremely lucky in that they had the first overall pick twice and both times there were clear-cut, no-brainer, major league ready star players available in Harper and Strasburg.

            1. Actually, they gamed the system. I think they tanked intentionally both years with the express intention of drafting those specific players. Guess what? It worked to a large degree! It was Hinkie-esque.

          2. It was stupid but not arrogant considering Strasburg was coming back from TJ surgery. Not having Strasburg in the NLDS had absolutely nothing to do with the Nats losing the division series. It is purely a myth. The two starters who took over Strasburg’s role did very well. Gio Gonzalez pitched very well in games 1 and 5 which Strasburg would have started if the Nats used him. The Nats won game 1 and had a 3 run lead when Gonzalez was pulled in game 5. Ross Dewiler who actually replaced Strasburg in the rotation pitched in game 4 and only gave up 1 run. The Nats won that game. The other 2 starters for the Nationals had very poor starts. The Nats were blown out in both games. It would not have mattered if these guys started games 3 and 4 instead of games 2 and 3. The Nats lost game 5 because their closer had a meltdown in the ninth inning with 2 outs and a 2 run lead. The Nats would have lost all the games they lost even if they had used Strasburg from the bullpen. The real reasons they lost the series were because the bats went away and a piss poor decision to pitch their closer in game 3 in an 8-0 blowout! The Nats averaged 2.25 runs in the first 4 games! The last game in which the bats came alive was blown by a closer pitching on his 3rd straight day.

  32. Phillies top trade deadline needs:
    1 RF bat
    2 reliever or 2, pref. one LHP
    3 3b or SS
    4 lefty SP

    If Klentak stands pat, he’d have lots to answer for. Minimum 2 of the top 3 above should be addressed.

    1. No, I don’t think he’d have lots to answer for. The rebuild target was/is 2019 and they appear to be on target if not slightly ahead. They might try to improve around the edges but it would be a mistake to give up major pieces to chase a wildcard spot.

      1. I’m with you. Think he’d have a lot to answer for if he made a foolish trade to fill one of these “needs” in order to compete for the 2nd WC spot. Continue on current path and add additional pieces over the winter for run at playoffs in 19.

    2. 8mark….2 and 4…almost every team that is buying will want one of those.
      So the price could be too high for MK’s blood.
      Brad Hand from the Pads will cost in prospects.
      And Hamels and Happ will also cost , since a bidding war ebtails with the likes of the Yankees and whoever else is in contention that may need a LHP.

    3. You make it sound like it’s so easy to fill those needs. Are you willing to pay the price? Sixto and Medina will almost certainly need to be traded.

    4. I’d settle for a lights out lefty (Brad Hand) in the bullpen. The rest can wait for the offseason.

    5. I disagree with this Ruben Amaro styled approach. I am not dumping the farm just to get the second wild card, especially when after the season I can add a number of these parts just for money and surrendered draft picks. I think this approach would be absolutely the worst thing they could do and would cannibalize the rebuild. Please MK – do NOT do this.

      1. That said, I am not against a very targeted approach. If you’re looking for an analogy, I don’t want any RGIII type trades, but a Jay Ajayi level trade for a starting outfielder or set up reliever would be fine.

        1. Castellanos is the ticket. 26 can’t become an FA until 2020 plug and play. Prime candidate for an extension. What does he cost you? not sure but I’m willing to talk any player not named Sixto or DLS.

          Maybe that wouldn’t be enough who knows. I’m not interested in chasing a WC either but I will make moves that make us better for the next 5 years.

          1. Yeah, maybe. If you decide you’re not going to chase MM. Would probably cost Haseley, De Los Santos and maybe Llovera. I’d consider it.

          2. Manny Machado for straight up cash (lots of it !) is a much better option than Nick Castellanos for two of our top prospects and another couple of tier 2 prospects. At some point, Klentak is going to have to deal some top prospects … but … he’d be better off giving them up for a younger(ish) arm instead of a bat.

          3. Nick Castellanos can hit but he’s atrocious in the field. He’s already -1.4 dWAR already. To put that into perspective, he has the same dWar as Rhys Hoslins.

  33. Williamsport report vs. Auburn Doubledays (WSH). Five strong innings from Juan Escorcia, followed by a big club style bullpen performance. 3-0 Cutters lead going into the 6th when Dennis Martinez (2.0 ip) gave up a run, cutting the lead to 3-1. Enter Anton Kuznetsov who can’t get anybody out in the 8th. It’s a 3-3 tie before he settles down. Fortunately the bats came through in the bottom of the 8th with four runs for a 7-3 victory. Matt Vierling, Brayan Gonzalez, Jesus Henriquez all 2 for 4, first baseman Edwin Rodriguez 3 for 4. Seth Lancaster 1 for 4 with a clutch 2 RBI single. Rodriguez and Vierling looked particulary impressive. Vierling, CF in college has only played RF with the Cutters. Lancaster was used at 3B but back at SS last night.

    1. Looks like the Phillies valued Vierling more than ASU’s Gage Canning , who went a few picks later to the Nats. I will like to see how that turns out in a few years.

      1. So far, the Nats are better at drafting than the Phillies so I wouldn’t be eager to bet the house on this. Hopefully it goes better than the old Rizzotti versus Rizzo choice – yikes that’s still so painful!!!

      2. Romus … I was hoping Canning would be playing for Auburn (vs Williamsport) last night. He didn’t. Hopefully, he’s in action tonight and tomorrow night.

        1. Hinkie…..I will be watching how they both progress and probably comparing their metric lines as they move up the ladder..
          But I am not going to kid myself….neither has been projected to be that stud everyday 4WAR OFer…. if they do get to the majors.

          1. In the NYPL tonite … Gage Canning leading off and playing CF for Auburn. Matt Vierling leading off and playing CF for Williamsport.

            1. Hinkie…..when you get a chance, ask Eric Longenhagen or KLaw to compare both players and what they think.

  34. I’d go after Drury who is stuck in NY AAA. Frazier too a bit pricey but young and would really fit in. The Yanks want Now pitching so AAA on up.

      1. rocco….VV alone brings back Frazier…no need to include anyway else.
        Cashman needs pitchers….Frazier is surplus and will get little if any playing time for the next 4/5 years in NY.
        Cashman tried to get VV in Dec 2015 from the Astros but no way Luhnow was trading with them.

        1. Frazier up now starting getting in some ATbats . That’s for show I can only guess for scouts .

          1. Agree.
            Yankees number one prospect is OFer Est Florial….runs like a deer and has plus power and is a LHB….then there is Billy McKJinney…another LHB.
            Frazier is a RHB…..along with Judge and Stanton
            Gardner is there for another year or two and Hicks, a switch-hitter, for another 3/4 years I assume.
            So Frazier becomes showcased

      2. The Yanks don’t need Kingery they have maybe the best young 2nd baseman in baseball.

  35. IMO, the 2 trades that Klentak that should be working on to make the club competitive are:

    1) JT Realmuto – absorb the bad contracts to be in the good side of Jeter. Alfaro with his improved defense power arm and bat still holds a lot of value. Alfaro, Kilome, etc. MIA’s farm is weak, feed it.

    2) Machado – for a controlled cost and not overbid. The sole reason why I prefer to acquire Machado ahead of FA is to solidify the intangible advantages of the FO in signing Machado. I do believe that Middleton will open his wallet to the tune of $350M – so he’ll get Machado long term.

    These 2 bats will stabilize the middle of the order that can result to consistent offensive production.

    As for the starters. unless someone like Chris Archer or Michael Fulmer becomes a buy low option (which I doubt), just wait until the smoke is gone and look in the left over bin for options.

    Development needs time. The Phils have good internal options for the pen. It just needs time due to lack of experience.

    1. What about Francisco Cervelli instead of JT? I just think some people get so focused on one name they don’t look at other potential bats around the league. Granted he’s a tad older and only under contract through 2019, Cervelli may cost less in prospects and deliver similar production.

      1. section113….I think you will get more action in section113 with Realmuto than Cervelli
        But oddly….both have the same career 11.4WAR…Cervelli in approx 150 more games than Realmuto however.

        1. Ha I meant to change my screen name, I sued to post under that ways back.

          I think Cervelli would require less in a package and I still hold out hope Alfaro can be a productive regular catcher in the near future. An over pay to the Marlins for JT would be required I’d have to imagine.

          Regardless of WAR, Cervelli is a very reliable and consistent catcher. I’m not against JT I just think other options exist, especially when some on here talk about pursuing Machado.

        2. I’m willing to have a lot of patience with Alfaro. There is a guy in town right now that had his struggles at the plate early on.

          The mistake was not signing a veteran back-up once you gave him the job. Knapp should have gone to LHV and played everyday where you would hope he tore it up and created some value for himself.

          Instead you let him languish on the bench.

          Someone used the term the other day disjointed and that fits perfect as a description for this roster.

          1. “disjointed:…exactly.
            And, IMO, that was the coach’s doing.
            The GM let Kapler put himself in a position to succeed , as they say.
            IMO, Kingery and Knapp could have both been let to have started in LHV and called out a few weeks ago.

            1. Morgan is a good choice a great defensive Catcher. Knapp looked good at the plate last yr. I mean he’s a switch hitting Catcher they don’t grow on trees.Knapp also could run so the outfield could be a option.

          2. Dmar Watch Alfaro hit. The guy cant hit a fastball, I have no hope for his offense. none at all. Knapp is a waste pure and simple.

            1. Rocco I’m not a big believer in offensive catchers as they get dinged up quite a bit. Alfaro defensively is getting better. His pitch framing is superb and we all know about his arm. I still see some balls get by him that shouldn’t but I hold out hope that he improves there.

          3. I totally agree, DMAR. As excited as I am about much of the young talent on this squad, the makeup of the roster is hindering the development of a few, including Kingery. He’s a man without a position (despite the company line that ‘we’re good with Scotty at SS’). He is a 2b. Crawford is fairly smooth at 3b but he’s a SS. To a lesser degree, Hoskins. But we can live with it for now. You can’t play musical chairs with young players and expect them to come along. With a record of 38-32, we have the starting pitching to thank. That is all. The rest of the roster was poorly constructed.

          4. @DMAR – the reason why you want to hold on to Alfaro is the same reason why Klentak need to sell him high right now. Alfaro is an offensive catcher — i understand that offensive catchers don’t grow on trees, but offensive catchers are not necessity to win world series.

            Catching is the critical defensive position and what you’ve seen last night, a good catching resulted to 4-2 win with the deserving players get the Win (Pivetta) and Save (Arano).

            1. I think many are hoping Alf eventually becomes Yadier Molina or Pudge Rodriguez. Not sure that will ever happen.

              .

            2. @romus – i always believe in the “balance” when it comes to roster composition – ideally defensive profile in C-2B-SS-CF positions and offensive profile in 1B-3B-LF-RF positions.

              C and SS are the 2 most important defensive positions so if given a choice, teams will go defensive C and SS anytime, thus, offensive C and SS becomes an important commodity.

              Currently, the Phils are struggling in the C and SS defense.

          5. @DMAR – although I agree with you about the fit of the team or what you called disjointed. When the FO signed Kingery to a contract, I thought they already made a decision about the 2B. Whether it’s the right decision or not, when you made a decision you stick to it.

            But alas, the current Kingery position appears to be a buyers remorse from the side of the FO. Just like most young and new MLB players, Kingery will need time and opportunity to complete his development. Flexibility sounds nice, but the concept of UTILITY players doesn’t fit everyone. UTILITY players are jack of all trades but masters of none. Kingery has some good tools that he can master, he doesn’t fit into the jack of all trades role.

            1. JP I thought was starting to relax and come around. I’ve seen him the past couple of games start to take his walks again and limit his swings to balls he can barrel up.

              Now that’s gone….

    2. No way I’m trading half the farm to take a flier on MM without a contract for next year. Not with a team that is barely contended for the second WC. Far, far too much risk and too much give up in the way of assets.

      1. The thing is, who among contending teams might trade half the farm? Anybody? There was a report suggesting MM would sign an extension with the Cubs but I believe only after a trade, not at the time of the trade. Otherwise, who would risk trading a package of top young talent?

        1. This is where I interrupt to say, “There is no way on God’s green earth that Manny Machado is not hitting the FA market this winter!” Don’t believe any reports/click baits you may have seen/will see. He’s not signing an extension with any team this season. Absolutely not ‘gonna happen.

          1. With new wave of pods cast , you get the stupidest ideas they are trying to get noticed imo.

        2. Theo is against rentals….but he may make an exception with MM, if the price is right.
          And listening to the Cub announcers the other day….Almora is Machado’s best friend, as they said, assuming that was a selling point for him to stay longer than the two months on his rental lease. Machado was quoted as saying that he would love to play with Almora and win a World Series together, a dream they had as kids when they player together.
          So who knows what gives with the Cubbies and Machado…..we will know in a few weeks I assume

          1. Theo is against rentals for the obvious reason – you pay much more than you receive. It’s a value lost proposition.

            1. It’s one thing when you’re knocking on the door of winning a WS. Another thing altogether when you’re hunting for the last WC spot.

            2. Yeah that is what he said….you do not build championships with buying rentals continually that cost prospects.
              Their farm system is really barren now.
              Addison Russell and Ian Happ were the two mentioned by the writers a few weeks ago.
              Now Theo does like to do June trades….Smard to the As for Russell was a June trade a few years ago, so if he were ever to do it…it could possibly be in the next week or so.
              The Os are in a pickle…..they may just settle for Addison Russell off the Cub’s 25 and a 5-10 range prospect .

          2. Well it can work out perfectly then. He can get traded to the Cubs this July, wins the WS with his childhood friend, and then signs with the highest bidder in the FA market for 2019.

            And as an added plus, no draft pick needs to be lost to sign him since he was a mid-season trade…

          3. The Cubs IMO may be the front runner to trade for MM. They are a true WS contender and would/should be willing to give up more for that missing piece to put them over the top. The DBacks also make sense for a MM deal..
            MM is definitely getting traded next month. That will be a good thing for the Phillies. It’ll save them their 2019 second round draft pick.
            Also, Machado’s brother in law (Yonder Alonso) plays with the Indians. His buddy (Albert Almora) plays for the Cubs. He’s got ex-teammates all around the league. Andy MacPhail drafted him. None of that is going to mean much this winter. Machado is going to follow the money.

            1. @Hinkie – i agree with about Theo and the CHC. I’ve mentioned here before that Theo (and possibly Dipoto) is the one who can wreak havoc in the Machado market. With the incentive to win a 2nd WS in 3 years, Theo might abandon his philosophy of building thru the farm – but rather go kamikaze for a Machado rental.

              CHC and SEA farms are one of the weakest in the league. For CHC to acquire Machado, they might end up giving young pieces (Russell, Happ and Almora) for a WIN-NOW mode.

              Dipoto and SEA will gut their farm, possibly Kyle Lewis and their top prospects.

              Klentak cannot play that game and just wait if Theo or Dipoto will blink at the last minute.

      2. @catch – you are starting to be good in putting words out of context and you over react into it.

        i think majority here agree that Klentak doesn’t need to offer the top prospects for a Machado rental who everybody knows will test the FA mark. “half the farm” is really a big price to pay especially for a deep farm like the Phils so you are really blowing things out of proportion.

        I’ve mentioned “controlled cost” which is only a small fraction of the “half of the farm”.

        The only crazy Machado-trade idea I’ve seen here is the one that includes a contingency which gives BAL Medina, Kingery, Haseley and others as a minimum. the ability to sign Machado is solely on the Phils to meet the asking price so I don’t know why BAL gets something from it. Imagine Middleton paying north of $350M for Machado and have to give up Medina, Kingery and Haseley, because of it?

        1. They will have to offer top prospects for Machado because the market will demand it. If someone offered top prospects for much lesser players or less important players (see Torres for Chapman) then someone will definitely (and I mean DEFINITELY) offer multiple top prospects for Machado. I would be shocked if he didn’t command a top 15/20 prospect, a top 50 or so prospect, and a top 100 prospect plus perhaps a useful major league reliever. Some team that is on the cusp of winning the WS will pay that but it shouldn’t be the Phillies.

          1. Here’s what I think it would cost the Phillies to get Machado:

            Sixto
            Pivetta
            Medina or Kingery or Crawford
            Ramos

            Or something like that. And they definitely should NOT do that.

            1. catch … IMO, nobody is going to fork over anything like that for 10 weeks of MM. If Baltimore gets that reported Cubs’ offer of Addison Russell, Ian Happ, and a MiLB pitcher, they ought to jump at it.

            2. @catch – now i see why you say “half the farm” —- again, BAL will ask for moon and the stars, but it’s not the buying price. The most i can see being offered to Machado is from the CHC – Russel, Happ and Almora. This is an obvious overpayment with the main goal of winning it all the way.

              Klentak is not that crazy to play that game. You’re the only one that I know who will offer that for a rental. This proposal is crazier than the Medina-DLS-Kingery-Haseley proposal I’ve seen here and that includes a contingency that Machado will sign.

              Just chill. Nobody will pay that much except Theo and the CHC.

          2. Yes I can see that.
            There are perhaps just a handful of teams on the cusp of winning the WS that will displace their current ss or 3rd basemen in the middle of a pennant drive to trade for MM as a rental.
            I see the Cubs, Red Sox, Seattle, Dodgers, Braves and maybe the Cardinals.
            I do not think the Yankees, who have plenty to offer, will sway the Angelos family to trade with them.

          3. @catch – market will demand it so who do you think will cause the market to go up?

        2. My crazy idea would be give up money and some lesser arms for Machado. The O’s have some bad contracts, so take them on and that has to lessen Machado’s value by a good bit. The question is by how much. So you take on Trumbo’s contract and you trade players like Kilome, Franco, Lively, Taveras, Thompson, Neris, Altherr.

          If that doesn’t work and you really want Machado then replace Trumbo with one of the worst contracts in baseball, Chris Davis. He gets 17M a year plus another 6M deferred that is paid after his contract is over in ’22. It goes till ’37, starting out at 3.5M a year and drops to 1.4M for the final 5 years. The O’s should be tripping over themselves to get rid of such a horrible contract that is only in year 3 of 7.

          Now you would have to be insane on take on such a bad contract with so much money on the table for a player that’s doing so poorly. But I bet if you took on Davis, you would get Machado and likely wouldn’t have to even give up too much just a lot of money and some players to free up space on the 40 man for next year.

          1. If you get the contract, you get the player. So Chris Davis becomes the highest paid pinch hitter in the NL for the Phillies? And Jesmuel gets sent down because of it?

            1. I’d trade Franco plus Altherr and some arms like Neris, Thompson, Lively, and consider putting one of Kingery/Crawford in AAA to work on things. Valentin can stay on as the backup 2B/SS.

              But it all depends on how badly they want Machado, just think that if they take on Davis, they should have no trouble getting him and wouldn’t have to give up too much.

            2. @Daniel – it will not fly. The players you mentioned are just throw in or will just net the Phils some Low A prospects and some IFA $$.

              A lot of teams will beat the collection of players.

              At a minimum, 2 controllable arms so BAL will consider like delos Santos, Pivetta, Eflin, Kilome, Ranger, Eshelman, etc. plus some A+/A prospects.

            3. Daniel … while I appreciate the effort, the truth of the matter is guys like Neris, Thompson, and Lively may get you some J2 dollars. However, they are not going to move the needle even a little for the Orioles in a potential MM trade.
              In addition … the chances of Middleton, MacPhail, and Klentak taking on that Chris Davis contract for 10 weeks of Machado is slim to none (and slim is walking out the door). You gotta remember the Phillies aren’t winning anything this season with or w/o Manny Machado.

    1. “vv= frazier and drury”

      Ugh No way. Altherr maybe struggling but he’s a quality defender, maybe the best OF defender on the team, and he’s shown glimpses of being more productive than Frazier.

      Drury doesn’t fit with this team.

        1. rocco…..one important phase of analytics is projection. And it is not an exact science
          And one aspect of determining projection is from performances in the developmental stages of a players career….the minor leagues.
          And you need a large sampling size….. aprrox 1500 plus PAs for hitters and maybe 400/500 innings for pitchers. And you way it as they move up the ladder vs better competition.
          Atherr, along with Alf, Nick Williams and Dylan Cozens….all had some red-flags, in fact the same red-flags, when compared to players who are currently successful in the majors and what their MiLB metrics were.
          And we know what their red-flags were since it has been mentioned often.
          There is no reason to think they will ever deviate from their past performances…..on a long-term basis.
          Maybe they will have an offensive spurt here and there but over time it tends to reach its own level..
          And that is what I think you are seeing now with Aaron Altherr
          Alf has too much swing and miss in the zone to be an effective BA/OBP guy, but like Williams and Altherr, once he connects the ball jumps.

          1. I know one thing that bothers me a lot. Example last night runners on first and third one out, up 3 runs. Hopkins has the whole right side open and they are pitching him away. yet he still try’s to hit the home run and pops up. I am seeing this team not even try to go the other way with the shift on. Its part of the game that bothers me. Team players do whatever it takes to get the run in. Why is JP trying to hit homeruns every swing its a long swing. with his speed just get on bunt. hit the other way be a set up for the guys behind you

      1. Avg yes he does he plays 3rd . Drury still young has a alot of success at the ML level.

      2. The return for Frazier is going to be a Frontline starter in the vein of what the Sox got for Moncadain in the Sale deal. It’s not likely the Yanks would take VV.

        If they would I’d do that deal…

        1. DMAR….Cashman has to move Frazier….the longer he waits the harder it will be for him to get top value in return….and unless Judge/Stanton/Hicks and Gardner get injured he is stuck as a utility guy or in SWB.
          Then there is Billy McKinney and Estevan Florial coming on.

  36. I’m not sure why the assumption that the Phillies are merely vying for a WC. Perhaps the FO is thinking division. Have the Nats proven to be the prohibitive favorite? Why are so many punting around the trade scenarios?

    1. Because some many of the scenarios include a foolish and often unnecessary waste of resources. That’s not how you get yourself through a rebuild or keep a dynasty.

      1. The only push back I have here Catch is what dynasty players do you see in our system right now?

        I agree you don’t move dynasty type players for rentals but at the moment we don’t have anyone that fits that bill.

  37. @8mark – most predicts the Phils to be non-contenders and despite of the better than expected showing, the Phils has not proven anything that they can take the NL title from the prohibitive favorite in WAS.

    The signing of Arrieta and Santana i think is not an indication of an ALL-IN, WIN-IT-NOW approach, but rather, building pieces to provide veteran leadership in the young core and as a sign that the Phils are close to contending and the bank account is now open.

    Unless the Phils can take the lead NL East for some weeks and beat good and bad team consistently, the are not legitimate division winners, thus, a contender for one of the WC.

    The Phillies can be a buyer and a seller at the deadline and that is just fine.

    1. KuKo, I get it. And if the bats, bullpen and gloves don’t improve, then yes they will not sustain the current pace regardless of strength/weakness of rival schedules. However, without breaking the prospect bank, the depth is there to improve the team by the deadline in areas that need addressing.

      A side point, or question, really – has anyone considered Sixto a possible back end of the bullpen piece, at least down the road, considering his “fragility” to this point?? By the time he arrives in the Show (’20/’21?), the Show may have transfigured the whole pitching staff construction the way things have evolved already in just a matter of a few years.

      1. @8mark – the farm has depth but they don’t have abundance of elite talent. The Phillies are almost in a situation where Sixto and Medina (the two consensus Top 100 prospects – not considering Bohm here) are untoucheables.

        Free agency is the Phils best way to acquire elite talent. Otherwise, Klentak needs to be creative to get value from the depth that they have. To acquire talent via trade, Klentak either need to:

        1) Absorb bad contract to avoid trading his top prospects; or

        2) Sell high on players and prospects that are playing well – this is where the Phils will get a lot of backlash including in this site where most posters here romanticize the players and prospects a lot especially the one currently doing well.

        On Sixto a big NO!!! Sixto is the only legit ace/#1/TOR that they have and you want to convert him to a closer? Hamels and Nola have their own share of injuries in their early years and a lot of pitchers got hurt like Sixto.

        I know that you become impatient and frustrated but you cannot overreact. The Phils has tons of options for the closer role – Seranthony, Arano, Ramos, Edgar Garcia, Kilome, Vinny, Pivetta, JD Hammer, Grant Dyer, Llovera have the arms to fill the closer role if needed. And you know what, closers are also available at the trade deadline or free agency if the teams need one.

    2. See that’s where some here are wrong . The Phillies beat the Rockies , Brewer’s and are 1 take away from taking a series away from the Cardinals. The Phillies still have alot of time to see more of what they have. Next Month schedule is really easy . Wait until this time Next month to see where there at.

  38. Phillies game is unwatchable. The broadcast is about the worst ever. I turned it off. Even no sound doesn’t help. Are they putting on a baseball game or a combination cartoon show and a very bad standup comedy act? I can’t believe anybody that really loves baseball can watch that garbage of a telecast.

  39. Tonight It goes to show you even a FB at 101 Hoskins hit was in the stike zone . SD’s FB at 98 went yard was also in the heart of the plate.
    Young pitchers big arms need experience.

  40. Crawford 4 to 6″wks fractured wrist . The Phillies are down to Kingery and Valinten.

  41. Why aren’t Hunter and Thompson sent down today? Crawford will give Valentin a chance. I am sick of Crawford just cant hit enough. Another great signing by sheldon

    1. Actually, Crawford was picked and signed by Ruben.

      Now the question is who gets called up. Mitch Walding (ugh) is the only other available IF on the 40man roster. Roman Quinn is reportedly healthy but there’s been no evidence that he’s been assigned a rehab stint yet. Williams was apparently not available last night with his broken nose.

      While we’re at it, Knapp has been overmatched both at and behind the plate so they might as well consider optioning him and then placing/acquiring another C on board.

      Looks like it’s time to shake the tree.

    2. ….oh, and Neshek can’t possibly return soon enough. Jake Thompson should get DFA’d asap.

        1. A majority of all relievers are so fluid year to year.
          You just never know what you are going to get from them each season.
          One example…Lidge ’08 vs Lidge ’09…and he was the Phillies best.

          1. Yes, the elite relievers are fairly consistent every year, like Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen. The rest are truly hit or miss, you just don’t know if they are going to have a good or bad year.

  42. before the game last night, kapler was talking about much he liked his bull pen, how talented they were blah, blah blah. captain happy talk. everything is always positive. ok, i get the power of positive thinking but really!

    see problem, solve problem. don’t sweep it under the rug. washington just added an important pen piece. nesek is coming back, hopefully in a few weeks, but is that enough?

    jake thompson and adam morgan are not part of a major league bull pen.

    and for god sakes, get an effective loogy. the lack of one is costing them games!

    1. You’re confusing a manager having a positive public face and not throwing players under the bus with a guy not making managerial decisions. I think he is making decisions but he figures he’s not going to make players better by diming them out to the press like the Mets’ dumb manager. I’m fine with what he’s saying. He’s handling his business internally.

      1. yes, i see your point. i’m not thinking strategically or as a manager, i’m reacting as a fan, who wants to see his team win every game and gets frustrated when winnable games go down the drain. perhaps my complaint is more with klentak than with kapler, who is doing the best he can with what he has. i don’t agree with everything he does but overall i believe he’s doing a pretty good job.

    2. Overall I think they have some very good talent in their bullpen. They are obviously not pitching very well collectively right now but they also have a bunch of young guys learning on the job.

      I’ve never been a fan of how Kapler is using them which I think is part of the problem but the talent is there.

      The biggest issue to me is the Neshak injury and Hunter has not been good. Those 2 guys were going to be the veterans that stabilized the back end while the young guys settled in but that hasn’t happened…

  43. Hunter was signed because Klentak loved his FIP. He has a cutter that bears in on left handed hitters. I think he should be the Loogy. Why he was left in after blowing the lead is beyond me. The BP has been a mess, we all know that. Neshek was supposed to be a big part of it. I need to see Klentak grab a RP via trade sooner rather than July 31. How many games has the BP blown this year? Is it up to 10 yet?

    1. According to baseball reference, the Phillies have blown 10 saves! The Braves have blown 8 saves. Wow, the Cardinals have blown 13 saves.

      1. Bullpens league wide are getting shelled. they were citing some stats on MLB network last night that were pretty alarming about IP thru the season thus far and we’re not even through June.

        1. DMAR,

          Maybe one reason for relievers being hit this season is because of the number of relief pitchers being used, the downside of limiting starting pitchers to five and six innings.

          More relievers being used means 1) more fatigue among them and 2) challenging the law of probability. Even with good pitchers, if you throw four of them out there rather than two, there’s two more chances that somebody will have an off night.

  44. The recent good showings from the SB LII champs Eagles. 2018 NCAA champs Villanova and playoff teams Sixers and Flyers are really getting into the impatient skin of the Phillies fans.

    I want to see multiple WS like most of us here. Although I hate the agonizingly slow approach of McPhail and Klentak, i think the Phillies is still in their timeline to contend for the WS. 2018 is not the year whether you consider the Arrieta, Santana, Hunter and Neshek signings are the cue or even they trade for Machado. They are not winning in 2018. These veterans are brought to the team to provide stability and leadership to the young core.

    Here’s what I noticed so far:

    1) The rotation looks steady if Arrieta is pitching well. In April-May, Arrieta pitched well and the overall pitching stuff looks good.

    2) The offense is flowing when Santana is productive. If Santana is productive, the top of the order can win games.

    3) On top of Hunter and Neshek, the “veterans” in the bullpen includes Hector Neris, Luis Garcia and Adam Morgan. Early in the season when these veterans are pitching well, the bullpen is rock solid. Suddenly when they are not, the bullpen imploded.

    The Phillies is one of the youngest teams in the majors. There will be growing pains across the board because of the youth that this team have, Development needs time. Time is patience. If the Phils eclipse 0.500, is considered a good season especially if the young guys were provided opportunities to continue their development.

    People are so fixated with the wins and loss column, thus, focus of acquiring temporary fix rather than letting the team evaluate the players they have. Although I’ve been on record preferring to trade for Machado and Realmuto (because there 2 are elite talents and they fill a void), I will be ok seeing more of the Austin Davis, Ranger Suarez, Franklyn Kilome, Drew Anderson, Enyel delos Santos, Leibrandt, Valentin, Cozens and Quinn having major league time even if it results to losing games.

    My point is, unless the Phils will acquire elite talent, then continue developing your current talent and decisive effort to let of the crappy ones. IMO, Curtis, Jake, Flormin and Leiter can be DFAd/outrighted and Garcia and Neris run their course so get what Klentak get from them.

    1. The offense clicks when Rhys Hoskins is in the line-up – period. It’s a completely different team when Hoskins bats even when he doesn’t hit – he helps grind down pitchers. This team needs a guy who can rake at either third or right field – I think it could make the team a legit wild card contender. The addition of Neshek to the bullpen would be huge too.

      1. If I were the Phillies I’d dispatch Pat Gillick to explore ways of trading to upgrade the team without mortgaging too much of the future. Gillick was just amazing at those types of late year deals – much better than he was at blockbusters. That was perhaps his greatest strength as a GM.

      2. The offense clicks when Rhys Hoskins is in the line-up – period. ==== this is not entirely correct. As a young player, Hoskins is bound for growing pains too — we’ve sen the slump unless you’re blind. This is the reason why Santana was brought in, to provide a proven and stable bat — this is where the “period” should be.

        And who are the players (RF and 3B) you are talking about? You keep in talking in general terms. The Phils is still not expected to win in 2018 whether they acquire the unnamed RF and 3B that you are talking about.

        The Phils will be linked to a high profile RF and 3B very soon, they will strike when the time is correct.

        1. was looking at numbers of key phils hitters in wins vs losses.
          Hoskins .866 ops in wins vs .800 in losses, with 8 of 10 homers in wins, but others differences are more significant.
          Santana .847 vs. 705 with 30 of his 40 rbi in wins.
          Hernandez .827 vs .668- 9 of his 10 steals in wins.
          Odubel .886 vs. 733, 33 of his 40 rbi in wins.

    2. Agree with KuKo. The Phillies are still a year ahead of schedule to compete. It’s frustrating, but let this group go out and take it’s lumps (on occasion). Don’t do anything stupid like trading away top end prospects for short term fixes.
      In other words …. “Trust The Process” !!!

      1. I love the excuses on this site. YEAR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. what a bunch of bull 7 yrs out of the playoffs. and we are ahead schedule. Who puts this bull in your head? Big market team should not be 8 yr out of the playoffs. not in this town. I seen how little of a crowd they had last night,. good I hope no one goes. This owner is as bad as having Harris own the sixers, clue less.

        1. rocco…you have a way of really bringing me down.
          “…… 8 yr out of the playoffs. not in this town…..”…now that is negadelphia.
          The wait is long overdue.

        2. This type of thinking is what leads to teams like the Knicks being completely irrelevant for decades. You can’t let the emotions of “being a big market team” force you into terrible decisions that might hurt you more long term than it helps you short term.

          1. Big market teams playoff appearances this decade:

            BOS -3
            CHC – 3
            CHW – 0
            LAA – 1
            LAD – 5
            NYM – 2
            NYY – 5

            Phillies – 2.

            It would seem that big market teams are often out of the playoffs. Only the Dodgers and Yankees have been regular playoff teams…

            1. look at the teams you picked all split markets. except for boston who won more titles in the last 18 yrs then we won in 135 yrs. Yankess you have guts to mention them we couldn’t carry there jock straps. Cardinals have 17 world titles, we have 2. 2 oldest team in the league one of the orginals 8 and 2 titles. that m8 is a disgrace and it aint getting better. so you post is so stupid its like your a public realtion guy for phillies.

            2. rocco……but you forgot to count the Philadelphia A’s!
              They got a bunch. The early years, the A’s established themselves as one of the dominant teams in the new league, winning the A.L. pennant six times (1902, 1905, 1910, 1911, 1913 and 1914), and winning the World Series in 1910, 1911 and 1913 and then again in ’29 and ’30. And in 1909, the A’s moved into the major leagues’ first concrete-and-steel ballpark, Shibe Park (Connie Mack Stadium)
              They are the white elephant in the room! 🙂

            3. Those are the major market teams, sorry you don’t like the list. But talking about what happened 135 years ago is plain stupid. No one associated with the organization today was alive so it’s meaningless history…

              I gave you the recent history. It is what it is…. Have a nice day m8…

            4. Roccom – I’m not going to let the history of the team over 135 year span dictate how I want the team built today. I couldn’t care less the history of success on the team. Your desire to “get back to playoff asap or it’s a disgrace” is the same mindset as “We are still in a position to win the world series” in 2012. Which is what got us to where we are currently. The team is currently 5 games above .500 and is full of first, second and third year players. That’s an amazing place to be in.

  45. Last night…Wiliamsport 4 – Auburn 0. Gustavo Armas went 7 scoreless. There seems to be a philosophy change at this level. For the last few years, in the beginning of the season, starters would only go three innings first time through the rotation. Now they’re going five or 6. Armas had been in Lakewood. They know what the have there, so not including him this observation. The best bat so far has been first baseman Edwin Rodriguez. who went 2 for 3 last night. Haven’t seen much power from him though. Danny Mayer looks good at the plate also. He played RF last night for the second time, all DH otherwise. Matt Vierling continues to look like a good draft choice overall, though there have been a couple of long flies for hits that I thought he should have had. Rafael Marchan has caught all but one game so far. Of the position players I think Marchan has the best chance of getting to the show.

  46. Some lefty options….

    Ranger is playing well recently and it looks like the control is back. The rotation looks steady with Pivetta, Vinny and Eflin pitching better than expected, maybe Ranger can pitch from the pen and see if the FB velo can go up pitching in shorter innings.

    I’m not sure if Leibrandt stuff’s can play in the majors — high 80s FB but will really good CU and command of his pitches. Curtis can be DFAd for Leibrandt and Leibrandt can be DFAd if he sucks.

    1. Your post got me thinking about why the Phillies sent Seranthony to the bullpen. In 2017 at Clearwater, Seranthony made 13 starts, 3.61 ERA, 10.8 SO/9. Those numbers are not that bad for a 22 year old. His WHIP was 1.299 which was not ideal and a fairly high walk rate. Anyways, he got moved to the bullpen and his SO rate is now 11.7 in the majors.

      Ranger made 11 starts, 3.04 ERA, 1.147 WHIP but a troubling 6.9 SO/9 at AA. He’a lefty, so the SO rate is less of a concern. He’s clearly navigating Reading a lot better than the other starters. I might leave Ranger as a starter and see how he progresses.

      Now Kilome, he should be a reliever. He walks way too many guys to be a reliable starter.

      1. I think sometime teams convert starters too quickly. Kilome is struggling with command, but he has multiple potential plus pitches – he’s worth waiting on a little longer.

        1. @catch – Kilome had control issues since he was signed. His BB/9 is always north of 3 (except for SSS in his GCL stint) with a career BB/9 of 3.7 in 397 IP so he is walking machine.

          His is also mostly a FB-CB pitcher without a consistent 3rd pitch. With his BB/9 and absence of a 3rd pitch after pitching in 4-5 pro years, that’s enough basis to determine his fate. Unless the Phils is planning to trade him (and find a GM who is hopeful of his TOR potential), Kilome belongs to the bullpen.

      2. @Guru – I’ve followed Seranthony a lot and watched him in LWD and REA. The numbers you posted is not representative of Seranthony abilities. Seranthony has the ability and stuff to be a legit #2/#3 – the FB is plus potential from the beginning because of the exploding movement and the SL and CU looks good too. The Phils developed him early as a starter because of the #2/#3 potential.

        IMO, the reasons why he was moved to the pen are as follows:

        1) Durability concerns in pitching longer innings. Seranthony has some injury history, thus, affecting his control. The lesser load suited him well and the stuff plays better.

        2) With his age, the Phils want to see him move up as quick as possible. The pen is the best way to move him up the chain and express to Philadelphia.

        Seranthony’s move to the pen is not about the numbers that you are referring to.

        I’ve always been saying that Kilome is better suited to the pen — so I agree with you with this.

        1. I don’t think the Phillies are that concerned about age. On that Clearwater staff last season, both Seranthony and Kilome were 22. Taveras and Irvin were 23. The more likely reason is that perhaps his stuff played better in short stints, and maybe he had a positive attitude about going to the bullpen. A lot of starters don’t want to do it.

          1. @Guru – the names that you mentioned don’t have the same “stuff” as Seranthony, because if they have, these 3 names will be on the fast track to. Seranthony has 2 plus pitch and his CU is at least average with good command of the pitches. Seranthony’s “stuff” is MLB ready since his A+ days.

            You have to look and understand better rather than nick picking based on the words you see.

            1. You have just said that his stuff is playing up better. Is his age really playing that much of a factor? He’s a reliever, the Phillies will take anybody who can get guys out regardless of age.

            2. You have just said that his stuff is playing up better. === this is an accurate statement, so what’s wrong with this?

              don’t you have any other legit argument so focus on the age? it’s obvious to me that you don’t really follow Seranthony before he becomes Seranthony. Out of the 30 words i said, you decide to pick the word age? Just to answer that, age matters to a prospect on top of their actual tools/skills. Sixto and Medina have tools/skills that can probably play in the majors but because of their “age”, they still have time to continue their development as STARTERS – assuming that the Phils project them as RELIEVERS then their timeline (or age) is quicker.

              Age matters in prospect projection. Not unless you have a wonder kid like Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, etc age is critical in physical projection. I can elaborate further, but don’t see the necessity out of it.

              We’re discussing about Seranthony, and we’re arguing about the impact of age?

            3. @KuKo, you’re the one that brought up the age angle, see point 2 above. All I’m saying is that age shouldn’t really matter in this case for relievers. Age is not that relevant for relievers. That’s why if you look at the top 100 list for pitchers, almost none of them are relievers.

        2. KuKo…Seranthony’s shoulder issue last year dictated two months out and rehab….did not work out coming back as a starter. Hopefully it will not be a Jimmy Cordero revisited.

          1. @romus – that’s what i’ve been saying. Seranthony’s stuff is MLB ready and he needs to be added to the 40-man, thus, the decision to put him in the fast track.

    1. This is where the 40man roster needs to get shuffled. Problem is that there are a few arms who could bump current spot holders, but no bats. Klentak would do well to trade some depth in pitching for a legit bat, whether major league ready or close to it.

      1. I think Klentak is still assessing if they Phils can actually be a contender or not. I can see him keeping everything the same and make decisions close to the trade deadline.

        Like what he did during the off season, he will only strike early if a candidate meets his “justifiable” price or just wait close to the last minute and check for left overs.

        1. If he is assessing that Kuko we are worse off than we thought. In no way is this team a contender.

          1. DMAR…he said last night, that July will be when he will assess whether or not they will go into buyer mode , even for a rental, keeping in mind the balance between now and the future.
            Their schedule gets easier with many below.500 teams in july…but a lot are away games.

          2. DMAR – the Phillies is not expected by any to be a playoff team this year. the fact that the GM is thinking that they have a shot of contending, the Phils are in fact in the better position.

            Sometime expectations change due to circumstances. When the Sixers (who is a projected borderline #8th seed) made their run but lost in the 2nd rounds, a lot of people are disappointed (all calling for Brett Brown to be fired) where in fact the Sixers did perform better than anybody had expected.

  47. Nick Fanti had a bad day today. 1.1 IP 5 H 3 BB 7 ER 1 K. Pitching 6.91 ERA with 1.40 WHIP currently this season. Fanti is allowing too many hits and long bombs.

    1. Don’t want to put too much on one appearance, but Fanti wasn’t overly impressive the night I saw him pitch a few weeks ago. He looked good in the boxscore, and he mixed up pitches for effective result, but he might not have the stuff for success as he faces more advanced hitters. Again, just one game and I’m no scout, and I surely wish him well.

  48. Love how we drafted a advance hitter with the third pick. And he is hitting against 17 yr old kids to start. Why. so stupid He should be at Lakewood to start, he isn’t a high school kid. Why do they send him to hit against high school kids, To say see he can hit now we will advance him , such a bad run minor league system , guys are so bad with the fundamental’s.. of the game. Wish we had lopes back so guys on this team with speed would learn how to steal a base. and take proper lead.

    1. rocco…..the kid is only going to be there a few days to get some swings in according to the Director. He could be wrapping up different newcomers things at the Complex.

  49. Haseley started at the same place last year. In a week, he’ll be at Williamsport, and in a month, he’ll be at Lakewood. Roccom … maybe you prefer the “throw your kid in the middle of the lake” approach to teaching your kid to swim, but the Phillies don’t.

    1. Bigger issue is who cares if he spends 2 months in GCL, Williamsport, or Lakewood. He will progress based on performance, doesn’t matter where he begins. The goal this year is to get him started in the program..

      The WIP contingent is simply looking for any/all reasons to complain….

      1. 3 the difference is this and even wip guy like you should understand. He learns nothing facing 17 yr kids from high school. and is wasting time. If we have to build up his confidence by starting him against kids .then something is really wrong.

        1. Who said they are building up his confidence? They are getting him transitioned into the organization and once that’s done, he will be promoted/assigned accordingly. Look around baseball and see where other first round college prospects are currently located and you will see nothing different….

          I really don’t understand why anyone who hates everything about an organization chooses to be a fan.

        2. Roccum he may get 50 at bats in the Gcl. Btw there’s alot of college Pitchers in the Gcl. Many from his yrs class.

    2. Wawa I take to the way it should be challenge a 6 million dollar college kid and we have to waste two weeks in gcl where he shouldn’t be, Lakewood is where a high college bat should start.

      1. Have you considered that maybe they’re doing some clerical work and he’s only playing there so that he doesn’t get rusty? The organization does not just exist around their most recent draft picks, and signing on the dotted line is not the only thing that determines where and who you play for.

        There’s all kinds of things these guys need to do after they’re signed that we know nothing about; from medical reviews/transfers of documents, to getting them situated (some people like having places to live instead of bringing a cardboard box with them), to making roster moves so that they CAN play for certain teams, to getting to know their new teammates and coaches, and on and on and on…

        I get it. Being angry at the Phillies helps you get through the day… somehow. But you don’t need to nitpick EVERY thing they do. No matter what you say or think, the organization knows better than you do what’s best for this young man. They know lots of stuff that we don’t, and they go through this transition every year. Let them do their job.

        1. Your so right Dan, how dare I question a team that has won two titles in 143 yrs in the fourth largest market. How dare I question a team who hired a manger who has lost them 5 games at least so far. How dare I question a scouting dept who has blown top ten picks. How dare I question a gm who hasn’t gotten more international money. How dare I question a team who wont wouldn’t go over the limit when they could for talent in the international market. Cause they worried more about the commissioner than the fans. How dare I And your right why should I ever question this great organization who is in the playoffs every year and spends a ton of money to win. both in the fa market and international market. You have to be bill giles to post those remarks you did or kabe

      2. Roccom – this is not a big deal. Sometimes they just want to watch a player at a lower level and give him a little instruction or allow him to get acclimated with some easier pitching. Players find their correct level very quickly so don’t fret it. Soon enough he will be exactly where he belongs.

  50. With the injuries to Williams and Crawford, the IF and OF logjams have been broken up. Has anybody heard anything about possible return dates for Florimon or Cozens?

    1. Florimon will be out at least 6 weeks. He went on the DL I think May 30th or 31st, so he’s looking mid July at the earliest.

  51. Baseball America has a NL East J2 preview. Any new names other than Castillo, Ortega and Azuaje?

  52. Grant Dyer pitched his 2nd game back from injury and doing 2 IP today. We’ll see him with the Phillies next year despite missing one year due to injury. Can throw mid-90s FB with tight CB and can throw strikes.

  53. I have to vent! Mitch Walding up with 2 outs. Struck out his first 6 times in Majors. Shift has 4!! Guys on 1st base side of 2B. Begging him to bunt ir just swing towards 3rd. No, Ks again! Head flying iff ball down towards 1st. Kid should have had his 1st MLB hit, but no. There are no stats that can convince me the play was not to get him on first and get Cesar to the plate.

    1. matt13…go figure.
      Then you will see a very good veteran MLB hitter like Cargo place the ball down third base for a single against the Phillies shift last week.

        1. rocco ….Sev Gonzalez was just released….led me to look up last 15 Phillies’ Paul Owens Award winning pitchers .

          2017 – Tom Eshelman
          2016 – Ben Lively
          2015 – Ricardo Pinto
          2014 – Luis García
          2013 – Severino Gonzalez
          2012 – Tyler Cloyd
          2011 – Trevor May
          2010 – Scott Mathieson
          2009 – Kyle Drabek
          2008 – J. A. Happ
          2007 – Mike Zagurski
          2006 – Carlos Carrasco
          2005 – Robinson Tejeda
          2004 – Scott Mitchinson
          2003 – Cole Hamels

          ……..Happ, Carassco and Hamels all did well in their MLB careers.

          1. had recently found a pic of my kids when they were little with Scott Mathieson, and looked him up. didnt realize he’s in his 7th year as a reliever in Japan, where he’s got a career 2.26 era and closing in 400 appearances.

  54. Wait The BEST Hitter on the Phillies Is HERRERA .WOW he may have 25 home runs around 85 RBIs his slash line .300/.358/.485 playing a high level center field.

  55. The are now 6 and 3 won series against The Rockies , The Brewers , the Cardinals. Should have really sweep the Cardinals . Need a vet closer, a defensive Catcher. The vet closer only needed for half a season.

  56. I think that between now and Fri night in DC (no Scherzer, btw) rosters move(s) will take place. Cozens may already be in transit for the weekend if only as the lefty pop bat off the bench. I don’t see Walding as a necessary bench player up here. Valentin is already the IF utility guy. The bullpen might see an arm or two trading places with Lehigh. Doesn’t really matter other than keeping the squad fresh until Klentak makes an acquisition for the pen.

  57. To someone above who asked and Hinkie who likes this stuff the most : Baseball American’s revised list of Int’l PROSPECT potential signings included the following for Phillies – as of 6/20/18
    Starlyn Castillo – 1.5 mm rhp who has thrown up to 97 mph (we knew this one)
    Fernando Ortega – tall 6’4″ rhp who is skinny but a hard thrower
    Joelberto Angulo – tall 6’5″ LHP Venez who is also skinny but hard thrower

    Alexeis Azuaje – Venez SS prospect – great fielder good bad control – 500mm
    2 Venez Catchers :
    Javier Vina
    Andrick Nava

    Yankees seemed to have cornered the market on the Cuban players

    1. Thank you, RU. Angulo is a new name for me. Tall, skinny left hander who throws hard. Sounds like an interesting pitching prospect. The Phillies went light on LHP’s in the draft (picked just three/signed just two) so this kid should supplement 18 YO’s Gabriel Cotto (7th rounder) and Jaylen Smith (29th round).

  58. Trade one – De Los Santos, Kilome, Listi and Franco to Baltimore for Manny Machado.

    Trade two – Any one of Eflin, Pivetta or Velasquez to NYY for Clint Frazier.

    Now have fun tearing it up….

    1. 8mark I really like pivetta. Since last year I been saying he has really good stuff. Doesn’t mean he will become a great pitcher, but has the makings of a good 2 or tor guy if he continues to improve. Clint Frazier doesn’t seem to have a ton of power or am I wrong again.

      1. As for Pivetta (and Velasquez, too) their value lies in the prospect of their makeup to be high leverage bullpen options down the road. Personally I think Eflin profiles as a solid longterm #3 in a good rotation.

        1. Even if he doesn’t improve from this point on, Pivetta is pitching like a 3 which makes him more valuable than virtually every reliever in baseball (except a select few). Putting him in the bullpen immediately and significantly downgrades him and makes him far less useful.

          1. In 15 starts, Pivetta has pitched to a 1.9 WAR with close to 11 Ks per 9 innings and an xFIP of 3.29 – he’s been their second best starting pitcher and is one of the reasons the team is in WC contention. The best thing is that he has shown steady improvement. He’s a guy you try to sign to a team-friendly long term contract – not trade away and certainly not convert to a reliever.

        2. You know that starters have way more value than relievers right? The second you move VV or Pivetta to the bullpen, value wise, they become Pat Neshek. Not only that, you HOPE they can become elite.

          1. If Klentak decided to move Vinny and Pivetta to the pen, it’s for the intention to use them as high leverage arms and not to trade them.

            This is the reason why i think Kilome was not converted to the pen yet as Klentak can dangle him in a trade. A TOR starter potential can yield higher return than a high leverage pen arm.

      2. I just don’t Pivetta as a #2 or a #3 even unless he develops a change-up. I see him falling into the trap that Eickhoff did last year. I don’t think any one of Velasquez, Pivetta, or Eflin is enough to get Frazier.

        It will be interesting to see how the Yankees go. They could go younger with more years of control with one of the Phillies kids or a more reliable rental like Happ.

          1. So was Eickhoff two years ago, and then the league caught up with him. Same thing will happen with Pivetta if he doesn’t develop a changed-up. I haven’t checked in a while but last time I did lefties were killing Pivetta.

        1. @Aron – agree with Catch, Pivetta is pitching like a #3 now. Pivetta may not need the CU as long as he can control and mix his CB and SL to compliment his FB.

          1. Kuko, I’m fine with Pivetta as he’s currently developing. My trade proposal only asks if he (or Eflin or VV) are of equitable value to NYY for Frazier.

            1. As far as value is concerned:

              Pivetta >/= Frazier
              Vinny < Frazier
              Eflin < Frazier

              Since NYY has less leverage with Frazier (no current position and will be pushed by Florial) so they might sell for less so Klentak might actually pull out a Vinny for Frazier swap and that's a win-win for both teams.

        2. Aron you must be kidding? come on watch him pitch he is a good 3 and I still say with his stuff he can pass nola if he continues his improvement. I love this kids stuff

    2. 8mark:
      re:Trade two.
      Cashman may oblige from his end, but IMO, Klentak will not disrupt the rotation mid-season.
      BTW….saw Frazier last night vs Mariners, being showcased it appears…also noticed, he has a huge piece of wood in his hands. Most Phillies use standard 32/33″ length bat, Frazier must use a 35″

      1. LOL trade 1…No Way
        Trade 2 Effin right I would

        What the H Hinkie did someone hijack your PP account…

        1. DMAR … the Phillies are past the point in the “process” where they should be trading pieces of their MLB rotation for prospects. Instead, they should be looking to deal some of their own prospects for MLB talent.
          I wouldn’t give up my top prospects for a MM rental, but I’d give up a couple of second tier guys.
          Also … I remember about a year ago, you wanted Joey Lucchesi from the Padres for Freddie Galvis. At that time, I suggested to you the Phillies were more likely to get a guy named Enyel De Los Santos than Luccehesi. I now think I’ve turned you into a De Los Santos monster. He’s having a great year at AAA, but the truth of the matter is De Los Santos is basically Zach Efflin. I’m not saying that’s a bad thing. I’m just saying he’s replaceable/interchangeable for this team. I’d trade him now because his stock/worth may never be higher.

          1. You go…Hinkie. Who, right now ?????? why would we exchange for De Los Santos, in the current rotation ? Roccom ? I agree with you- the kid pitchers need to pitch to find out who they really are but I would be the first to agree the bullpen doesn’t make that decision easier, other than the flowery stats like wins etc., but this is not an easy decision ! My guess is its a combination of both – or 2 more trades or dfa’s etc…….

        2. @Hinkie – I’ve been lobbying for delos Santos during the prospect ranking and nobody is voting him. Someone asked me why I ranked delos Santos that high (#7 if i remember correctly) above Kilome.

          What have you done lately really leaves the biggest impact in everbody’s mind. But I agree with you, that delos Santos profiles like an Eflin with mid-90sFB and good CU combo. I’ve really seen delos Santos pitch so I can’t tell if it’s better than Eflin’s. Eflin has velocity but lack movement.

    3. @8mark – i’ve said before that it 2 controllable arms at a minimum so YES to Trade #1 but will try to play around with it first.

      TRADE #1

      Option 1 – Eflin and Kilome + Listi and Franco (may add Daulton Guthrie before discussing delos Santos)

      Option 2 – delos Santos and Taveras + Listi and Franco

      Option 3 – delos Santos and Kilome + Franco (no Listi)

      TRADE #2 – NO. This is overpayment. NYY has no leverage to Client Frazier (like Klentak to Cesar) so it’s either a Vinny for Frazier (+ some Low A lottery prospect) swap or Efin + Tyler Gilbert for Frazier.

        1. @roccom – upside wise, his ceiling will be high since Frazier has a true 5-tool upside. Frazier has good speed and arm so he can play all OF. Frazier and Altherr has the same upside because of the 5-tool capability although Frazier is the better hitter than Altherr.

          Like Kingery, Frazier needs regular playing time to unlock his abilities.

      1. I just read that Balt badly needs a RF (among a myriad of other things) so I would consider offering Cozens in addition to sweeten my above proposal, OR Williams instead of Listi.

      2. I don’t see the Yankees wanting to go the Sonny Gray route again which is pretty much what VV and Pivetta are and Sonny Gray couldn’t even land Frazier.

        The Yankees are going to flip Frazier for the likes of DeGrom

            1. DeGrom is 30 Frazier is 23. DeGrom is about to become really expensive Frazier can’t become a FA until 2024.

              If I’m Alderson I do that deal in a NY minute and probably get the Yankees to throw in a young arm as well Acevedo…

            2. Romus Kielboom just got promoted by nats. one more pick and he was ours. He is tearing up the league at 20 yrs old.

            3. rocco…yep…too many ‘one more picks’…same with Theo and Happ at 9 and Ruben goes with Cornelius at 10.

        1. That said Frazier is an excellent player I’d give up a lot to get him as we talk about all that it would take to get MM in either prospects to rent him or the money it will cost next season

          I’d be on Frazier over MM all day. That kid is going to be a star.

          1. @DMAR – it looks like you like Frazier a lot that’s why you value him that much and that’s fine. You might be right about Frazier but equally wrong as well. Like McPhail said, they grow the arms and buy the bats so the bats will come via FA.

            Unlike what you think that you’ll be on Frazier over Machado, most, if not all GMs will be on Machado and get him if they can afford. I don’t see any GMs overpaying for Frazier like you think.

            1. MY MM position is a simple one I’m not giving up anything of value to rent him for a run at the WC

              I do like Frazier he has that “IT” factor

            2. KuKo….do not forget….Machado is playing on a one-year, $16 million deal, so contending teams — especially ones with big payrolls already like the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Angels — may not be able to squeeze him into their payrolls because they are afraid his contract would push them over the luxury tax threshold and prevent them from resetting their offender status going into 2019

            3. @romus – i think the site knows my stand with Machado and the 2 players (Machado and Realmuto) I like Klentak to acquire. On the Machado trade, my stand is to not overpay – just offer 2 controllable arms plus some minor pieces. That’s it. Is this a bad trade proposal?

              People who follows baseball knows the deal about Machado as a rental, no need to keep putting it up here.

              Also, everybody should expect that all teams particularly the big market and contending teams should check with Machado since he is a legit superstar. Another fact that we don’t need to keep repeating.

              What something to discuss is what trade value/package that these teams can offer so we can determine if Klentak and the Phils can do better than that.

          2. DMAR … LOL … common’. I’m beginning to believe you are just trolling us. Frazier over Machado ???

          3. If the Phillies acquire Manny, they are essentially making a public statement that they are not merely vying for a WC spot but the division. That is an important distinction. And if so, they will make parallel moves as well to improve their chances.

        2. @DMAR – any team can get Frazier without giving up anything of value as long as they absorbed Ellsbury contract. NYY has been dangling Frazier in any trade of substance. Although NYY is saying that Torres and Andujar are untoucheable, NYY knows that it will take Florial (a better prospect than Frazier) + Sheffield and Chance Adams to land deGrom.

          1. I don’t agree Kuko the Yankees want to land TOR. They are not going to chance this season to the current rotation.

            1. what is it that you disagree with me? The deGrom return? It’s obvious that you like Frazier a lot that’s why you value him the same as deGrom — so this is where we disagree and some here already disagreed with you too.

              As for the need for starters, I agree with you as i posted here before that NYY will prioritize a starter and not Machado at the trade deadline. Actually, I have NYY acquiring Michael Fulmer as my bold prediction since it will cost less than deGrom with JA Happ as fall back.

              I don’t even think that DET will accept Frazier for Fulmer straight up.

            2. @DMAR – i like Frazier too and high on his upside but I value him based on what I think GMs will offer considering they know that NYY will end up trading him anyway.

              If i value Frazier based on how I think of him, then I will definitely overpay and overpaying is only a work of a desperate GM. Despite of the slow rebuild, Klentak has no reason to be desperate.

            3. Ok yeah DeGrom is going to net more than Frazier. I disagree that any team can get Frazier without giving up anything of value.

              Cashman could care less about Ellsbury’s money. He has a chip in Frazier and he is going to play it for a proven starter with some years of control.

            4. Cashman should try to extract the most trade return from Frazier since that’s his job similar to what Klentak is doing with Cesar.

              Cashman better hope that there will be more teams who checks on Frazier so competing GMs outbid one another. If not, Cashman will settle for the best offer who may not be the trade return he is looking for.

              As for Ellsbury, i disagree. NYY is expected to be a major player in the upcoming season with a lot of big names commanding big contracts. Team Owner nowadays like to win with lesser cost that’s why cost controlled players become hot commodity. Gone are the days that GMs will just buy the championship. Most of the recent WS-winning teams are powered by their cost controlled players.

              So NYY might value that $63M contract and roster spot that Ellsbury is occupying than what they can get from Frazier.

            5. KuKo….”Gone are the days that GMs will just buy the championship.”….you are not talking about Cashman?
              He absorbed the largest MLB contract this off-season for pennies on the dollar, to buy a championship…..Ellsbury’s contract not withstanding.

            6. @romus – that’s correct. He did that so Cashman will not give up his cost controlled players and result to the possibility of losing Frazier to unload Ellsbury’s contract.

              So if you are looking at it, Cashman is not just outright buying —- he’s hedging!!

            7. @romus – the buying the championship is basically signing/paying every player you want.

              Absorbing contracts (like the Stanton) as a strategy is not really outright “buying”. I said hedging because it is addressing two sides of the fence. The cost of the contracts absorbed is basically being offset by the expected “low cost” of the players not given up (or received) which are cost controlled normally for multi years.

              So teams who absorbed contracts like SD, ATL are not really “buying the championship” but rather managing their payroll costs by paying the contracts absorbed now and get the savings (from the cost controlled players) in the future.

  59. I know a lot of you go to lvh or reading. Walding so far is swing and missing by a lot. What did you see from him in minors. I never saw him on tv or any video

  60. Now I just read MLB’s Jon Morosi suggesting 39 yr old Adrian Beltre might be an affordable rental to the Phillies. Not clear if that’s been explored or just speculation.

    1. Now, with Manny, Josh Donaldson, Beltre and Moustakas on the market, it’s reasonable to think we should land one.

    2. Klentak can actually ask TEX for Keon Kela and absorbed Cole Hamels and Andre Beltre’s contracts for Zac Eflin, Franco and return Jake Thompson to them.

      1. Another team I guarantee you the Yankees are talking to. If Hamels wants to go to another ALCS he’ll spurn the Astros again and go to the Bronx Bombers.

        As for our Phitin Phils we shouldn’t be talking to anyone about adding old vets. Trust the process I thought was the mantra

        1. @DMAR – old vets is not a bad thing as long as the Phils don’t commit to them long term. Hamels and Beltre are not long term solution. Even Arrieta, Santana, Hunter and Neshek are not long term so the decision to sign them are sound.

          “Phitin Phils we shouldn’t be talking to anyone about adding old vets” === I’m actually surprised by this comment. We like the young guys because they have the energy and the improving skills. But nobody should underestimate value and stability that veteran leadership and experience in the clubhouse — as in nobody cannot underestimate or ignore that. Who do you think will mentor and guide the young players to become a better player? Google, YouTube, Siri and Alexa?

          1. Phillies is one of the youngest teams in the MLB. Adding some veteran leadership and proven caliber players will help the team a lot.

            1. Astros were considered a young team….would they have won the WS without 34-year old Justin Verlander last year?

            2. I like Vets you’ll remember I wanted Jake and Carlos was a really good get. Hunter and Neshek to lesser extents. And yeah if you can get me a Castellanos I’ll take him.

              But Beltre at 39 Meh. I’d rather get Valentin some PA’s there.

            3. @DMAR – if Klentak push for that trade – Hamels, Beltre and Kela it will be for the following reasons:

              1) Klentak intends to contend and play for the playoffs. While I don’t expect this, this should be good.

              2) Improve offense – Beltre at 39 yo is better than any option that the Phils have.

              3) Pitching – add veteran and playoff tested in Hamels

              4) Bullpen – another another power arm in the young stable.

            4. OK Kuko you convinced me…if you think that package would land those 3 I’d do it.

              But I think Hamels alone is going to land them better than that.

              Beltre’s money comes off the books after this year so that’s no big favor to the Rangers at least not enough to get them to throw in Kela.

            5. @DMAR – you’re probably right – the Eflin + Franco is too light since I can see TEX dealing Hamels and Kela separately to acquire more.

              Maybe adding Taveras or Gamboa might push the needle. Although i still need to see the players before determining the trade package that Klentak can offer.

            6. Romus your other kid you wanted kyle Tucker is in triple a at 21 hitting over 300 with 10 hrs. 375 obp. hitting over 500 in last ten games. who did we take after him??

  61. What about targeting Jeurys Familia? He’s kinda similar to Herrera from the Royals though he isn’t having quite the same year. But he to is on his last year of arbitration and will be a free agent.

    Maybe Brito/Arano/ + 1 more to mirror the Herrera deal?

    Or maybe Blake Treinen?

    Brad Hand will cost waaaay to much for the Phills.

    1. Ignoring his off the field issues, Familia has been bad since mid May and terrible in June. The Phillies already have a full supply of bullpen arms that have been bad this month…

          1. Romus remember the big A on moyamensing. They are tearing it up and making a sports bar for you, when you go to the games.

          2. Oh right. My apologies I forgot.

            I will say that’s a fair point. However, his June stats are a very small sample size that in context don’t represent how his year is progressing. 3 runs in 5 innings, 1 of which came off an inning just returning from the DL isn’t what I call bad.

            And he hasn’t been bad since mid-May.

        1. Romus you eat at popi which is down the street from and don’t stop in. by the way on Saturday nights my cousin is the girl at the door, when you come in Debbie is her name

  62. According to Evan Macy (who also sites other outlets) of Philly Voice, Phils are interested in both Machado and Beltre.

    1. I’m actually ok with this as long as the price is not prohibitive. There’s no reason for Klentak to be desperate, just make a calculated move and pull the trigger.

      I’ve already posted earlier my proposal to acquire Machado (from BAL) and Hamels, Beltre and Kela (from TEX).

      I can live with Alfaro in C, but the 4 players above should be able to address the current holes that the Phillies have.

  63. Couple weeks back, Heyman and Nightengale put out a package of Gamboa, de Los Santos and Taveras for Manny. That might start the conversation but I would have to think it’ll take more.

    1. If you believe in grow the arms buy the bats you won’t trade DLS….I’m screaming from the mountain tops….at least not for a MM rental.

    2. Excluding the recent draft class, I think there’s a case to be made that Gamboa is the 2nd best position prospect behind Haseley. I’d be reluctant to trade him away for a rental, which is what Machado would be.

      1. At their respective age to level…I wonder who would be considered a better prospect….JPC or Gamboa?

        1. JPC got to Clearwater in 2014 at age 19. OPS at about .759.

          At 20 JPC destroyed Clearwater.

          If Gamboa can finish around the same as
          JPC in 2014, with his current level of defense, considering JPC …was a high 1st round pick, I think then he’s not too far behind, in ny opinion. But still behind none the less as JPC made it a year younger.

        2. No brainer – JPC. Gamboa is rated like 8-12 in the system. JPC was the hands down number 1 prospect. It’s not close.

      2. I like Gamboa too. but Romus is correct, either JPC or Gamboa. Plus might need a roster spot (to be protected from Rule 5) which the Phils don’t have.

          1. KuKo….I do not think the Phillies are willing to expose Gamboa this year….even if he doesn’t get to Reading and AA later this season. So he gets protected
            I assume with Brito they will take that chance.
            And also have to assume Florimon and Walding will be left unprotected from the current 40.

          2. There’s no reason for it to be either Gamboa or JPC. Both can survive for now in this org, Gamboa is only 20 in Clearwater, though he will need to be on the 40 man roster at this winter.

            As for the 40 man, I think it will resolve itself this summer and winter via trades.

            1. No…I was wondering who would be considered the better prospect at Hi-A…..JPC in 2015 or Gamboa in 2018?

  64. Just saw that Jhordany Mezquita made the MLB Top 30 Prospect for the Phillies.

    “While Mezquita isn’t the biggest pitcher in the world at 6-foot-1, the left-hander does have a durable body that looks like it should be able to log some innings as a starter. He also has a three-pitch mix that he uses well. His fastball will sit 91-92 mph and will often touch 94 mph. His changeup flashes above-average and while his breaking ball is fringy, he does flash an average curve to imagine he could get there consistently at some point in the future.”

    Mezquita’s stint in the Top 30 will be short when MLB update their rankings with the Rule 4 draftees. I expect Bohm will be #2-#3, Pipkin will crack Top 20, Eastman will be in the back end and Logan Simmons possibly made it too.

    Hopefully, MLB noticed correct the oversight error of including Jose Gomez in the Top 20.

  65. Klentak didn’t specifically target Brad Hand and he will not enter the Brad Hand market. Preller is looking for an Andrew Miller return because he knows that Brad Hand’s market will be big so any team will give up an arm and a leg to get a (Brad) Hand.

    Klentak knows that he is not a lefty reliever away to be a WS contender like CHC and CLE 2 years ago.

    1. Wasn’t my pt the Tweet itself where he stated if the Phillies come out of June ok. Go into July and make a ran against the lesser teams. The Phillies will be buyers at the trade deadline for Rentals and long term pieces. That what the Tweet said we will see in a month.

  66. No observations on lat night’s Williamsport game (2-0 win over Auburn). I didn’t feel like sitting in the rain so stayed home. Apologies. I know you folks are just on pins and needles waiting to hear about the Crosscutters. 🙂

    1. Hari do you know how to make a true Irish Coffee ? Drink 1 or 2 of them no worries about the rain. LoL . When I used to go Deer hunting we used to go though Williamsport. 1 Remember stopping at a diner that was real old , great food though.

      1. Tim, I vaguely remember a very rainy and windy Penn State football game and a pint of Southern Comfort. Never again. I do know how to make a true Irish Coffee and a true Irish Car Bomb.

    1. or maybe my boy Drew Anderson’s time to come up and blow everybody back to the Delaware River.

      Not sure what’s Neshek injury status, maybe a move to 60-DL and add somebody else?

      1. Neshek supposedly had a bullpen session yesterday which was to precede a rehab assignment if all went well. Sounds like he should be returning real soon.

      2. I wish it was Drew. I’ve been following his career since he was in Williamsport. He’s scheduled to be on the mound for LV tonight. I hope they aren’t bringing Neris back up.

      3. If you think Drew Anderson is going to be an upgrade right now, I think you’re in for a rude awakening. He might develop more in the future, but I don’t think he’s close to being a bona fide big leaguer right now. I think it’s the baseballs hit off him that will be heading to the Delaware River.

        1. @catch – I’m just playing homee, OK? Nola is my homee but he’s an easy choice. So I’ll choose a hard one in Drew Anderson.

  67. What are the odds of the Phillies and 76ers each drafting a player from Wichita State in the first round?
    That said … I believe the Sixers will be trading Landrey Shamet.

  68. This weekend in DC, Eflin-Nola-Pivetta vs Roark-Fedde-Rodriguez, no Scherzer, Strasburg or Gio. 0.5 game behind them and an opportunity to strike against a recently sputtering NL east favorite.

    Meanwhile the Braves’ June schedule against creampuffs continues this weekend vs Baltimore, who just gave Washington all they could handle.

    It’s early but reaching July 1 with a 44-38 record (5-5 between now and then) keeps us relevant heading into a much softer schedule next month leading up to the trade deadline.

  69. Jon Heyman’s odds for Manny in July:

    Phillies 3-1
    Cardinals 6-1
    Dbacks 7-1
    Indians 10-1
    Dodgers 12-1
    Cubs 15-1
    Braves 20-1
    The field (including NYY) 9-1

    1. I’ve heard rumors about Adrian Beltre and, I’ll tell you what, if they can get him for the right price, I’d do that in a minute and save my Manny bullets for the winter.

      In terms of the Phillies’ needs for a post season run, what I think we need to focus on is not just the upside of the player they acquire but the gap between the current player and the player they acquire. What is killing the Phillies now is massively below average production at a few positions, including third base, right field, shortstop and, unfortunately, catcher (not as bad as the others, but it’s not too good).

      So, if they can just get slightly above average at a few of those spots, the team will improve significantly (the bottom half of the line-up is killing them – no many runners left in scoring position – it’s low hanging fruit). I think SS will take care of itself, but they could use upgrades at third, right (big issue) and perhaps catcher. I think they could take care of those needs for the stretch run on a temporary basis without mortgaging too much of the future. A trade for Beltre could help both teams quite a bit.

      1. If the Phillies pursue anything with Texas, Beltre and Hamels together would make a lot of sense and shouldn’t break the bank in prospects. Machado would still be in play as well. Either package could include Franco who certainly wouldn’t be a centerpiece by any stretch but he might be considered a worthwhile reclamation project to either Baltimore or Texas.

        1. Beltre and Hammels together would cost a lot – it might be worth it, but it would cost a lot, although not quite as much as MM. But doing that trade would make them a serious threat to do damage in the playoffs and they would have Hamels for another season, which would be a big deal too and would make it easier for them to extend him on reasonable terms. He would help this team a ton.

          1. That trade might costs 1. VV or Eflin – Rangers pick; 2. Franco; 3. Haseley; 4. Gamboa; and 5. Llovera. I’d definitely consider doing that deal if presented, but it would be close.

            1. Catch, what we DON’T know is that intangible x-factor in the level of confidence that the Phillies have in being able to re-sign Manny. That will definitely impact the package they are willing to offer without giving up more than they really need to.

            2. @8mark – i think Klentak’s willingness to engage in Machado trade will depend on who is bidding for Machado at the deadline. Klentak knows that he is not going into a bidding war for Machado at the trade deadline, he will do that at the end of the season in FA.

              I can see Klentak following the Jake Arrieta blue print. He will watch from the outside then swoop in when all the players backed out.

              delos Santos is a sell high candidate, he will be a casualty and possibly Kilome and Gamboa too.

            3. I was talking about a Hamels/Beltre trade. That’s what I think it might take to get those two.

        2. Beltre had a full trade clause and he loves Texas. I mean he said the only way he’s going anywhere is For a chance At WC. If this is a major move because this one is done then I think Beltre may come. I don’t think he’s coming here for a chance at a WC. That could by this team next month the Phillies could be much more in the playoff hunt.

    1. @roccom – ARI displayed strong interest although their farm is weak and may need to give up their lone Top 100 prospect in Jon Duplantier to offense anything of significance to BAL. BAL wants to acquire at least 2 controllable arms for Machado, Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray and Shelby Miller are all on DL so ARI is also thin in arms to give. So I think Klentak still have a good shot at Machado without giving up any premium prospects and young guys. (BTW I don’t consider delos Santos as premium).

  70. Crosscutters were in Batavia, NY last night. You can read the story from the box score. Five scoreless from Ethan Lindow and 2 more scoreless innings from Rafael Carvajal. Then it looks like it turned into a Phillies game. In the last two innings the bullpen blew a 5 run lead.

    1. Kudos to Rafael Carvajal though. If you don’t remember his story….about two years ago it was in the Philly news. Poor Dominican family, couldn’t afford to sens him to school – at all, learning disabilty, etc. The school at the Phillies academy in the DR identified his disability and worked with him. There was a picture of him proudly graduating from the sixth grade. I hope the kid can stay in the system long enough to get a HS diploma.

  71. Potential Manny Machado market as reported in MLB.com

    CHC – Russell (or Happ) + Alex Lange

    ARI – 2 of Duplantier – Widener – Tabor + low level prospect

    LAD – Verdugo + Yusniel Diaz + Lux

    STL – Hudson + Bader and/or O’Neill

    BOX – Swihart + Groome

    ATL – Wright + Anderson (or Gohara) + Alex Jackson (or Wilson Contreras)

    and your Philadelphia Phillies offers……

    Option 1 – Sixto Sanchez

    Option 2 – Seranthony + Mickey Moniak

    WHAT SAY YOU!!

    1. This is what I don’t understand. Were people thinking Baltimore would just hand over their franchise player for peanuts?

      Their will be no window for extension. The bidding will be high. And most importantly, the Phillies aren’t a Machado away from winning the World Series.

      The Phillies will have to sacrifice premium prospects for Machado. And they shouldn’t because he’s going to the highest bidder next year. Plain and simple. I don’t care if he gets traded to the Cubs and they win a WS and he loves it….
      …if the Cubs offer him a dollar less than Arizona in free agency he’s going to Arizona. It’s that simple and gutting the top of the farm system for a player…for a team that is more than this player away from WS contention is a horrible mistake.

      With Machado can the Phillies beat in a 7 game series the Astros? The Red Sox? The Yankess? I don’t think they can even if they had Machado.

      1. Who is going to give Baltimore even one of their top prospect for Machado? No one.

        Who among the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs “need” Manny to win the World Series AND be willing to cough up their top young talent without an extension? Nobody.

        Who DOES need Manny to win the World Series AND has the farm to get him? Nobody.

        That leaves Baltimore in a predicament. Will somebody give a good package to get Manny? Sure. But like KuKo mentioned above, let the dust clear as July 31 nears. I think the Phillies (provided they are still playoff relevant) will only benefit from the Manny market. That’s why insiders believe they are the favorite.

      2. Trenton…..agree to some extent….though no NL team is probably going to beat the Yankees/Astros or Red Sox in the WS. May not even be close.

        1. Romus if MM Goes to Washington with there starters, and relievers. they have a better chance than anyone else to beat the Yankees or Astros. or Red Sox. I have seen good Yankees teams before and this one from only watching a little is loaded.

          1. Maybe on some other day, Roc. But last night they got a major league ass whoopin’! Go Phillies!!

      3. @trenton guy – what you don’t understand is the concept of economics. BAL has reason to ask for anything and everything for a legit superstar. But do you think BAL asking price will be the prevailing market for Machado? Machado is a pure rental and majority of the teams will not mortgage their future unless Machado assures them of a WS ring and singing LT contract too. BAL has no strong leverage to expect what they are looking for.

        Also, if other GMs will just turn around and move on, BAL is staring at a comp pick since Machado is walking away. There’s a big discrepancy between moon and stars vs a comp pick and without a strong leverage the Machado price will point downward.

        1. KuKo – I do understand economics. I also, while not posting on this site for years, have followed along in Phillies discussions and post on other sites. Trust me, I’m not being naive in this line of thinking.

          Machado will be the premiere player at the trade deadline. He will be the #1 Free Agent target come the off-season thanks to Harper’s ineffectiveness and Kershaw’s injuries. Machado is having a monster season.

          But don’t believe me that the final price tag will be high believe the previous years top trade targets:

          Ben Zobrist – top 100 overall prospect (Sean Manaea) + some other guy for a pure rental.

          Yoenis Cespedes – two top 10 prospects (Fulmer top 100 overall) for a pure rental.

          And yes you can throw at me a JD Martinez and point out that he did not require any top 100 prospects and I could only shrug and say that was a bad move, which it was, and analysts ripped the Tigers for not getting more upside back
          .
          Other teams like the Cubs and D’Backs will be all over him. Currently the Phillies only have Sixto (injured), Medina (rough start to the year), and Haseley as top 100 prospects.

          The price will start with one of those 3 if not two of those 3.

          1. @Trenton – i don’t think you fully understand the economics part of it. If you do, you are not using historical transactions to prove your point. Economics is supply and demand so the market dictates the price. If no GMs will offer top tier prospects for Machado on a basis that he is a rental (which is a fact), then what trade return should BAL get? On the contrary, if Theo and CHC sets the initial price by offering Russell + Happ + Almora and other GMs decided to join the market like ATL offering Kyle Wright + Ian Happ + Gohara and DiPoto counters with Paxton + Kyle Lewis and another top prospect, etc. — then the market price of Machado will be exactly the opposite.

            So if BAL wants to get a haul from Machado, they better hope that many GMs is in the market and willing to pay premium. So that’s the economic part of it. It is the players in the market (which is the GMs and what they are willing to pay) that dictates the trade returns and NOT what BAL wants and NOT based on past transactions.

            GMs checking in on Machado is not necessary setting the market. It is just part of their due diligence. just like a consumer doing window shopping.

  72. That would be a resounding No from me. I don’t trade Sixto. I am well aware of the dangers of Pitching prospects with injuries and regression. But, I don’t trade Sixto. And, I don’t think Baltimore takes him alone and they for sure are not taking option #2. My offer would not be more than Lively and Cozens, so I am not expecting to get MM at the deadline. If we are still in the WC race, I look towards Moustakas or, maybe, Donaldson. Add a veteran RP, and go to battle.

    1. The prevailing mentality cannot be whether we’re in the WC race but rather the division. The wild card is a poor line to draw. You have to decide – are we contending for the division? Or not? Let’s stop the wild card talk.

      1. I disagree. Of course the goal should be to win the division, but you have to keep it real. Are the Phillies in contention to win the division? Probably not. So then you take it to the next level. They are in WC contention and they should probably take some steps to try to win the WC. But that brings with it a larger degree of uncertainty and THAT is why it’s stupid to waste a lot of resources for a rental player. Most of the MM scenarios I see around here give me a migraine.

        1. “Are the Phillies in contention to win the division? Probably not.” Catch, that is a very fluid situation which the FO must decide BEFORE July 31 at the latest. We disagree. Keeping it real is not conceding the division to a young, untested Braves club (like ours) or a Nats team that continues to suffer significant setbacks with key injuries and the fact that they have never gotten over the winning jump to become that prohibitive favorite, which IMO they are not. I understand the view that on paper they should be revered, but I don’t think that this year is necessarily their year either.

          1. Yeah, I guess you can let it play out, but it’s not just the Braves – it’s everything. I just don’t see this team being good enough to be a legit WS contender, but if they could get a guy like Hamels, that could change. Their starting pitching could be scary good in a short series and then it’s anyone’s guess. But to do anything they must upgrade third and right field at some level – they are just awful at those positions right now. Even average is a big upgrade.

            1. I agree about the weak spots. With all his warts, Alfaro has come along well in handling the SPs. (Not sure who can handle these relievers right now – that is merely a case of pulling names out of a hat) As long as Kingery plays out of position, I don’t expect much improvement at the plate or in the field. Franco is a dead man walking (and he doesn’t even do enough of that). Altherr and Williams are both 4th OFs who haven’t sufficed in RF.

              I believe Gabe MacKlentak will be patiently aggressive as the trade market sorts itself out. The off season should be pretty straight forward. Just spend.

  73. Jim Bowden of MLB.com etc. says Phillies favorites to get MM – at least because they have what Orioles are looking for – pitching. He considers the 2 teams a “good fit.”

    While Beltre would be a great add – he is revered in Texas and I would bet they will listen to him as to “where” he is willing to go + he has not won a championship and the clock is running. My guess is he sees the Phils as attractive but not “there” yet to win.

    With regards to Sixto – I agree with above, no way I trade him for anybody – especially a potential rental player.

    1. a good “match” is more appropriate than a good “fit”. Excluding Sixto and Medina, the Phillies have some selection of controllable arms that BAL is looking for. ATL has the better quality of arms, but no way ATL will deal their top arms for a rental especially I don’t see ATL entering into a bidding war to keep Machado. ATL is more on the Mous and Donaldson market than Machado. With ATL out of the market, it can actually help lower the market price for Machado.

      Above A+, Sixto and Medina are the only premium arms in the farm. JoJo can be, but his current price is low. delos Santos and Kilome are good arms, but not premium arms. Klentak can mix and match the young arms in the MLB, AAA and AA to figure what BAL likes. Pivetta’s value is going up as of now, so Klentak might want to keep him.

      For a price of 2 “non-premium arms” , I’m ok trading for Machado rental. Even-though Machado is 100% will test the market, the FO’s relationship with Machado will be strengthened during the 2 months of Machado and that will give Middleton longer time to plan what financial package acceptable to Machado.

  74. I don’t consider a “good fit” to be overpaying for a player that does not guarantee us anything while costing us premium Pitching, and giving us zero leverage to re-sign him. I think we have the pieces to satisfy the O’s, but I am unwilling to offer them. And, I agree 8mark. I try for Moustakas and a BP arm to help get into the playoffs. I don’t overpay for Manny without seeing a road to the WS.

    1. Matt, last year I liked Moustakas but since then I have come to think that he would only be a notch or two above Michael Saunders (who by the way just got released by the Chisox). Pass. If we can get Beltre or even Donaldson at a reasonable price, I’m in. Same for Manny and I think our chances are as good if not better than any other MLB team.

      1. 8mark….’he would only be a notch or two above Michael Saunders ‘…..IMO more than just a notch or two…he is on his way to a 4WAR season and plays third base.
        And 29-years old, the question begs, what will he cost?

  75. Phillies signed former Nats veteran infielder Danny Espinosa to a minor league deal as depth with JPC on the shelf. Switch hitter, weak bat, good glove up the middle.

    1. Espinosa is a testament to the importance of the hit tool. He has incredible raw talent including 60 raw power. But he just never hit enough to make that ability play up. But he’s a great signing for AAA – zero risk.

  76. An Idea of Realmuto’s Cost.
    Nats have been interested in Realmuto since the off-season.
    But Rizzo will not give in to Jeter/Hill’s asking price.
    Multiple offseason reports suggested that the Marlins asked the Nats for a package headlined by one of their two most-coveted outfield prospects, Victor Robles or Juan Soto, who has exploded on the scene now at the age of 19. Robles, meanwhile, has missed much of the season with a hyperextended elbow but is still considered by may to be among the game’s 10 best prospects.

    1. I have to say that it really pisses me off that the Nationals have been sitting in first place for the last 6 years or so, have traded away a ton of prospects to build their current roster and still have young guys like Robles and Soto and were able to acquire Trea Turner and now got a key reliever. We need to build an organization like that – like the Nats or Yankees or Cardinals that just keep churning away no matter how well they do.

      1. The GM who is both smart and aggressive is a rare breed, Catch. Klentak is in his 3rd year. Time for him to clang those brass balls without giving away the store.

      2. Matt Klentak seems to be very meticulous and thorough before making any bold moves. Sometimes it seems overly so.

        For example, once he signed Santana in December and informed Rhys you are now a LFer…..no way should he have all three of Williams/Altherr/Cozens and add in even Quinn still in the organization come March. Then also convert Valentin to a corner OFer also.
        Williams has the most upside value of the four…and should have been moved.
        If Freddy gets you a tier two pitching prospect at the time like Enyel De Los Santos, Williams should have also got in return a pitcher of some prospect pedigree.

        Klentak apparently is a gatherer.

        1. Nick Williams maybe the best RF on the Team overall. Yes his Defense needs help but he has the Speed and arm to make up for poor routes. He has more legit LP power of any of them but Cozens who has major Contact issues. Altherr so far has played himself in to a 4 th outfielder. Cozens maybe the best bench bat .

          Nobody counts on Quinn anymore you can’t .

          1. Tim…..Williams 25% krate this year…27% last year and this year combined.
            OPS+ of 96….wRC+-94….negative bWAR and fWAR
            Of all the OFers (sans Doobie and Rhys) he has the most upside value.
            I would put him in a package.

      3. Catch—-I agree, how is it that they have Difo, Robles, and the great Soto ???? I think Harper is an afterthought on this team !!! He can walk and they will never miss him. There are probably more of these LA players they are stuffing that are fantastic ! Pitchers, no —-but hitters, yes. Phillies have the LA pitchers.

    2. The nats could lose Harper and still be really good with these two kids they got. That 19 yr old is going to be a stud

  77. Curtis called up to replace Jake. With the Phils playing WAS (Harper, Murphy, Eaton and Soto as LH) 7 of the next 10 games, they need a LOOGY. If Curtis sucks, then he’s out!

    1. Maybe Morgan the new Closer . You put Davis in were Morgan was. Curtis as your Looby.

  78. @roccom – re-posting here in case you did see in the other thread…about your Cole Irvin question.

    See link below of MattWink’s review of Cole Irvin just 6 months ago which I think you will love. As per MLB, Irvin’s FB is 91-92 and all of his 4 pitches are at least average and the control is above average, thus, Irvin can throw all of his pitches for strikes.

    Looking at Irvin’s minors career number, his K/9 is 7.22 and BB/9 is 2.04 so while the swing and miss is not awesome, Irvin can strike people out and his BB/9 supports his good control.

    Irvin is not Cole Hamels but everything looks good about him as a prospect. He can be like Gio Gonzalez.

    http://philliesminorthoughts.com/2018-top-50-phillies-prospects-21-30/

  79. Nats are hurting right now. This is where the Phillies need to smell blood and take the series. The last time I posted a positive comment about Odubel, he went in the tank for a month, so I’ll refrain😉

  80. 8 if Romus doesn’t pay me the 40 he owes me , post something positive about him. I give you twenty

        1. Why not? Honestly outside of Chapman, I have to think Hand had been one of the best lefty relievers. I’d wait do Franco, Medina +.

          1. I’d give Franco and a prospect for Hand, but that prospect would not be Medina or anyone with similar upside. It would be someone more like Lively or Eshelman.

    1. I heard they were asking about MM too yesterday. But people felt they didn’t have enough to get him.

  81. Alec Bohm to Williamsport Crosscutters today, in Mahoning Valley (Indians franchise in Youngstown OH).

    1. Hari…here i thought that was a Mahoning Carbon Cty team ….never knew they were located in another Mahoning, Niles, Ohio
      Is Bohm in the starting lineup?

  82. Saw the Franco trade I don’t think it will be much in terms of players . Could be do to the Beltre trade.

  83. They are rumored to be talking to San Diego and the blue jays. but don’t know who they are targeting.

  84. Pivetta might want to stop throwing the baseball right over the plate. It might be the rain.

Comments are closed.