Open Discussion: Week of July 9th

The Phillies have reached the All Star break with the worst record in baseball.  They have lost twice as many games as they have won, have a 29-58 record, and a .333 PCT.  They are 22.5 games out of first place in the East Division.  They are 10.5 games behind the fourth place Mets.  As far as the playoffs go, they are better off in the Wild Card race where they are only 21 games behind the Rockies.  “Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game” (In Jim Mora’s squeaky voice.)

Okay, so for those focused on the future, the Phillies are leading the race for the 1:1 pick. They opened up a 3.5 game lead over the dreadful Giants.  But, the Giants are actually 5-5 in their last 10 games, so maybe they have improved on their recent mediocrity.  However, no lead is safe.  Two years ago, the Phillies had a comfortable lead for 1:1 only to sweat out a charge by the Reds late in the season.

The Phillies went 2-5 last week.  They sandwiched a 5-game losing streak with a 4-0 win over the Pirates and a 7-1 win over the Padres.  During the past seven games they got 6 good starts from Nola (W), Laird (L), Hellickson (L), Pivetta (L), Nola (L), and Eickhoff (W).

The Phillies begin the second half on a road trip to Milwaukee.

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.

Draft News

The draft signing deadline passed on Friday.  The Phillies closed out by signing #39 pick HS SS/P DJ Stewart.  The Phillies signed 30 of the 40 players they drafted.  They exceeded their bonus allotment by almost $400K.  However, they were a little over $47K under 105% of slot and that will allow them to avoid penalty.

International Signing News

The International Signing Discussion is located here, but the Phillies’ activity as reported by Ben Badler, Baseball America, has the Phillies signing 4 of the top 50 prospects:

  1. Luis Garcia, ss, Dominican Republic (No. 12 prospect), $2.5 million
  2. Carlos Vargas, rhp, Colombia (No. 25 prospect), $525,000
  3. Carlos Betancourt, rhp, Venezuela (No. 41 prospect)
  4. Cesar Rodriguez, c, Venezuela (No. 42 prospect)
  5. Israel Puello, rhp, Dominican Republic, $460,0000
  6. Oscar Gonzalez, c, Venezuela
  7. Cristian Hernandez, rhp, Venezuela
  8. Alberto Torres, lhp, Colombia
  9. Alejandro Made, rhp, Dominican Republic
  10. Diego Tamariz, rhp, Venezuela

Baseball America is NOT reporting bonuses for Venezuelan prospects. I will follow their lead. So far ALL reported signings that exceed $300K total $4,435,000. The Phillies have been allotted $4,750,000, so they can still go over $300K on one or more contracts by as much as $315,000, which they may have reached already for all we know.

In his article, MLB columnist Jesse Sanchez opines that the Phillies will acquire additional pool money.  Each team is allowed to trade for more pool money up to 75% of their original allotment (an additional $3,562,500 in the Phillies case).

The Phillies did add international poll money, trading Tyler Frohwirth, Caleb Eldridge, and James Lovett.

I’m going to forgo reading the Comments in the Open Discussion and Box Score Recap for a while.  If any one wants to contact me with questions or wants to call an error to my attention, please e-mail me.  Put something in the subject line that will induce me to open the e-mail, I routinely delete e-mail from correspondents that I don’t recognize, especially the ones with the “spammy” subject lines.

Key dates remaining:

  • July 31st – Non-waiver Trade Deadline
  • December 10-14th – Winter Meetings in Orlando
  • December 14th – Rule 5 Draft

Transactions: (includes roster juggling and paper moves)

  • 7/10 – Phillies activated RHP Jerad Eickhoff from the 10-day disabled list.
  • 7/10 – Lehigh Valley IronPigs activated RHP Zach Eflin from the 7-day disabled list.
  • 7/9 – Phillies optioned Ben Lively to Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 7/8 – Lehigh Valley IronPigs placed 1B Rhys Hoskins on the temporarily inactive list
  • 7/8 – Lehigh Valley IronPigs placed 2B Scott Kingery on the temporarily inactive list
  • 7/7 – DSL Phillies Red placed LHP Yefferson Mercedes on the 7-day disabled list
  • 7/7 – DSL Phillies Red activated LHP Luis Suarez
  • 7/6 – Phillies sent RHP Vince Velasquez on a rehab assignment to Reading.
  • 7/5 – Phillies signed RHP Connor Seabold.
  • 7/5 – Phillies signed LHP Damon Jones.
  • 7/5 – Phillies signed LHP Kyle Dohy.
  • 7/5 – Phillies signed LHP David Parkinson.
  • 7/5 – Clearwater sent 3B Damek Tomscha on a rehab assignment to GCL Phillies
  • 7/5 – Lakewood BlueClaws placed 3B Jack Zoellner on the 7-day disabled list.
  • 7/5 – RHP Jake Kelzer assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport.
  • 7/5 – RHP Spencer Howard assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/5 – RHP Connor Seabold assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/5 – LHP David Parkinson assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/5 – LHP Damon Jones assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/5 – LHP Kyle Dohy assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters
  • 7/4 – Phillies sent RHP Jerad Eickhoff on a rehab assignment to Reading Phils.
  • 7/4 – Phillies signed RHP Alex Garcia.
  • 7/4 – Phillies signed SS Jake Holmes.
  • 7/4 – Phillies signed 1B Quincy Nieporte.
  • 7/4 – 3B Harold Martinez assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs from Reading Phils.
  • 7/4 – RF Herlis Rodriguez assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs from Reading Phils.
  • 7/4 – Alberto Tirado assigned to Reading Fightin Phils from Clearwater Threshers.
  • 7/4 – Cord Sandberg assigned to Reading Fightin Phils from Clearwater Threshers.
  • 7/4 – Ranger Suarez assigned to Clearwater Threshers from Lakewood BlueClaws.
  • 7/4 – Carlos Duran assigned to Clearwater Threshers from Lakewood BlueClaws.
  • 7/4 – Jose Antequera assigned to Clearwater Threshers from Lakewood BlueClaws.
  • 7/4 – Lakewood BlueClaws released LF Enmanuel Garcia.
  • 7/4 – SS Raul Rivas assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/4 – 3B Jack Zoellner assigned to Lakewood BlueClaws.
  • 7/4 – RF Juan Luis assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/4 – RF Jesus Alastre assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/4 – Luis Encarnacion assigned to Williamsport from Clearwater Threshers.
  • 7/4 – Kevin Gowdy assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from GCL Phillies.
  • 7/4 – IF Jesus Azuaje assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from GCL Phillies.
  • 7/4 – C Colby Fitch assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters.
  • 7/4 – RHP Alex Garcia assigned to GCL Phillies.
  • 7/4 – 1B Quincy Nieporte assigned to GCL Phillies.
  • 7/4 – SS Jake Holmes assigned to GCL Phillies.
  • 7/3 – Clearwater placed 2B Derek Campbell on the 7-day DL retroactive to 6/30/17
  • 7/3 – Phillies traded IF James Lovett to Seattle
  • 7/3 – Clearwater Threshers activated SS Zach Green from the 7-day DL
  • 7/3 – Clearwater placed 2B Derek Campbell on the 7-day DL retroactive to 6/30/17
  • 7/2 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Alejandro Made to a minor league contract.
  • 7/2 – Phillies signed free agent SS Luis Garcia to a minor league contract
  • 7/2 – Phillies traded RHP Tyler Frohwirth to Miami
  • 7/1 – Phillies sent RHP Vince Velasquez on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
  • 7/1 – Addison Russ assigned to Lakewood BlueClaws from Williamsport Crosscutters
  • The organization’s rosters are up to date.

 

185 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of July 9th

  1. I’m quite happy that they were able to squeeze one more Rule 4 pick, #39 – High Schooler DJ Stewart. He may be a long shot but I’m all for maximizing available funds and rolling the dice on a young HS talent.

    Now we see wait and see what the Front Office will do as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. I’m realistic, seeing that we have average players to flip. I’m simply hoping for them to either package a few ‘quantity guys’ for a quality guy or try for a low level player with a single carrying tool (a lottery ticket).

  2. It is a shame that Tommy Joseph had concussion issues and had to move from Catcher to 1B. His hitting from the catcher position would make him a potential all-star (assuming his defense was acceptable). But being pushed to 1B makes him a poor hitting first baseman who should not be blocking a potentially very good hitting 1B any longer.

    For all of the crap that we gave Amaro on the Pence sell, TJ could have ended up being an all-star catcher if he didn’t have concussions (which Amaro couldn’t have known at the time). He is only 25 yo and under team control until 2023. If that scenario played out, we would have likely felt very different about that trade. That is the type of young hitter that everyone is looking for. Young, cheap, controllable and at a premium position.

    But having to be moved to 1B, nullifies most of his value because he is just not a very good hitting first baseman (and before you go bonkers at my comment and argue that TJ is actually a great hitting 1B, please look at the stats). His OB% is 26th out of 27 qualifiers and his ISO is 18th out of 27 qualifiers. Add in his mediocre defense and position limitations, that is not a very exciting 1B profile.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

    1. I agree with most of what you say, but my primary complaint about that is how much we gave up (at the time) to get Pence vs. what we got in return. Even with the benefit of hindsight I believe we should have gotten more, and the same goes for the Victorino trade.

      All that being said, and despite the lack of success from the big club, I really think we’re going in the right direction. The trade deadline should be about determining who might be part of the core, and getting max value for the players they move, and begin bringing up the big guns from AAA to see how they fare.

    2. I feel sorry for Tommy Joseph. He went from an organizational outcast who was extremely fortunate to make the IronPigs roster, to a starting major league first baseman in less than a year. His is a feel good story. And my big wish is that Matt Klentak can do right by both Joseph and Rhys Hoskins.

    3. Tommy came to Philly already having a previous concussion or two. yes Amaro could not have known that the next time anything went near his head he would get another one but certainly that should have been a concern when trading away such a valuable chip for who was the headline player in that deal

    4. Hell 3/4 of the team have .obp of under .300 . Tojo is the leader In Hrs . Your basically saying by Having Hoskins at First he will walk more. Hoskins speed is 30 his Defense is worse . It seems he’s pull happy which the switch will be used. When the Phillies get a true 4 hitter like Harper, Machado , Hoskins will be a 6 or even 7. Half the AAA team have horrible .obp . Just saying Hoskins isn’t going to help the Phillies this yr by next yr they could have A true 4 hitter.I mean Ceaser gets 4 yrs ,Luis Garcia gets _ yrs to finally get to potential. Tojo gets half a yr starting ?

    5. I’ve often said that people underestimate the return we got for Pence. Joseph as the main piece in the return was fair.

      Also it’s funny how much criticism Amaro gets for hanging onto our core players until they’re well past 30. I believe Pence was 29 when we dealt him and he was the one guy who ended up having his peak in his early 30’s.

  3. It’s disheartening when you read Kingery knows he won’t get called up this season. That’s why I respect the Yankees. If someone is ready, they bring them up. Arbitration clocks, 40-man spots be damned. Kingery deserves to be up at some point in 2017. Could he be just as good as Ty Kelly? Probably. But even if we waited until September, he deserves to be up.

    1. Have to believe that Hernandez is coming back sometime in the near future and until they figure out that situation, I don’t see Kingery moving to the big club..

      Not unlike the issue they had with Polanco/Utley several years ago..

    2. You don’t bring up Kingery unless he’s the every day starter. It’s just silly to bring him up to sit him on the bench.

    3. There is more to consider than what Kingery “deserves”. For instance, the arbitration clock absolutely should be considered, especially when the remainder of the Phillies’ games in 2017 are meaningless to the club. And Kingery just got to AAA. If he keeps progressing, he’ll get to the majors soon enough – there just is no reason to rush it in 2017.

  4. Henry Owens, the pitcher everyone wanted from the Red Sox back in the Cole Hamels trade rumor days, has 50 BBs in his last 10 games. That’s something I’ve never seen before. He’s slipped back into AA and if this continues could be in the GCL by August 1. There must be something wrong physically.

    Josh Tobias, the guy traded to the Sox for Clay Buckholz, is holding his own in AA but not killing it like Kingery’s doing in AA and AAA. The trade was worth the risk. If nothing else, it might have told Kingery that “your the guy.” Kingery’s responded.

    1. I know another pitcher in the A’s farm system that will end up like Owens. Great arm but terrible control.

      1. Our Phillippe Aumont, another guy with big stuff who just never figured out how to throw it for strikes..

    2. More interesting to me is the example of Blake Swihart, whom Boston wouldn’t trade to get Cole. They were sure he was going to be a future all-star. He is still in the minor leagues, with a slash of .213/.265/.327

      Could you imagine if our package was Swihart and Owens for Hamels? that would have been a Disaster!

    3. The one who got away Dominic Santana really good numbers. Funny The brewers start three ex phillies. Villar. Santana and Broxton who didn’t sign but was drafted by us

      1. the Brewers have done a great job identifying players who are blocked in other organizations, plus they don’t mind guys who strikeout. all three of those guys have more k’s than games played since joining the Brewers.

      2. Dominic Santana…. lol.

        Never forget.

        Jon Villar, JA Happ, and a PTBNL.

        Oh sure Ruben won’t give up someone legit as a PTBNL right? right??

        ..and it was Domingo Santana and everyone on here started freaking out.

        ..and rightfully so. This man is 24 years old with a slash line of .291/.384/.497, 15 HRs, 9 SBs.

        Jon Villar is an impact infielder and JA Happ been eatin innings for as long as he’s been healthy (and won 20 games last year).

        Out of all the ‘Win-Now’ moves none of the prospects really came to fruition, besides Carrasco who’s a beast now, but every other trade… nobody! And then there’s this Oswalt trade and each piece is ballin out. The piece that really hurts is Domingo Santana though, he looks like a Jayson Werth clone who strikes out more. Would’ve been great to have him manning RF right now but Ruben just HAD to include him on a PTBNL list. One of his many mistakes as GM.

        1. Even more ironic…Ed Wade was the one who selected Santana from the Phillies PTBNL list in July 2011 for the Astros..

        2. At the time, I termed Santana the worst PTBNL ever – clearly, an overstatement, but it was such an unexpected dagger in the heart. You never expect the PTBNL to be one of the best players in the trade. But he surely was both at the time and in retrospect.

    4. I could be wrong, but I believe we balked because the ‘best’ prospect being offered was Owens. Regardless, I agree with you on both points: Owens would have been really bad and Tobias was worth the risk.

    5. I don’t recall anyone wanting Owens ! That’s who they wanted us to take as a headliner and you see how far that got

  5. The Marlins want to shed salary; the Yankees have far more players than they can protect on the 40 man roster this off-season. Just a couple of examples of the trade landscape.
    The Phils may not have many trade chips of value but if Klentak can’t take advantage of the Phils’ thin 40 man roster coupled with the organization’s ability to take on salary then I feel he’s the wrong guy to steer the course of a rebuild. 3 weeks till the non-waiver trade deadline. We’ll know a lot more about Klentak’s ability soon.

    1. I’m sure everybody knows that the Phillies are looking to deal. But unfortunately, there are other teams looking to deal too like the Tigers. And the Tigers have better assets to trade(JD Martinez).

      I’m sure Neshek and Kendrick will get dealt, not sure on Nava, Joseph, Hellboy. Benoit is getting cut once Therrien is ready.

  6. It doesn’t make sense to bring Kingery up now, even though he deserves it. Let him rake in AAA and once ST rolls around, expect Kingery to be the starting 2B in 2018. That will give the Phillies more time to think about dealing Hernandez, unless they’re absolutely blown away with an offer. That’s highly unlikely, considering the time he’s missed this year

  7. I don’t think anyone is going to want Hellickson unless the Phils eat most of his remaining salary. If they can move him, that would be a coup.

    Swihart had turned the corner and was playing well for the BoSox (while playing LF) when he ran into the foul side LF wall. Hasn’t been the same since.

    And what about what JC Ramirez is doing! Who would have ever thought he’d start, have 7 wins, and be a mainstay in the Angels rotation?

  8. The Phillies are definitely going to eat the remainder of Hellickson’s contract. He’s probably going to the Royals (if KC can hang in the race for another couple of weeks). The return won’t be earth-shattering. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=kc Former first round draft pick, LHP Foster Griffin (#20 ranked KC prospect) and flame-throwing RHP Andrew Edwards (#21 KC prospect) are the the two possibilities for the Phillies. I’d prefer another former first rounder who has been a disappointment for the Royals (#25 Ashe Russel). Here’s the story https://thatballsouttahere.com/2017/07/06/phillies-trade-rumor-hellickson-royals/

    1. I wonder what they will get for Pat Neshek whenever he can complete that trade?
      The Nationals could be an option in that trade.
      The Royals are in their last year of their penalty for the 2017/18 J2 international signing period….maybe Klentak will be able to get some additional international money also from them in a Hellickson trade.

      1. Surprisingly, I think Neshek could possibly generate a decent return. There are several playoff contending teams that really need help in the back-end of the bullpen which could create a bit of a bidding war..

        1. Agree…Neshek could bring back more than what was expected 3 months ago. And plus relievers seem to be the hot commodity for contending teams these days.

        2. I would love to get Jesus Luzardo from the Nationals in a Pat Neshek deal. Don’t know if Rizzo would do that straight up, but I’d expand a deal to land Luzardo.

          1. The Marlins,Mets , A’s , SF, SD , Cincy, Deroit , White SoX, Pitts , all have there Bp open for Buyer’s. It’s not what the Phillies have for buyers it’s the comp there against . The Yanks have high interest in the
            Marlins players. The Yanks have also scouted Oakland and The Phillies Neshek. Go by what team scouted who .

    2. If MK can get any of them from the Royals he’s god Sent . By the way Russell left baseball for awhile. there are sooooo many sellers looking at what the Phillies have there like shopping like the dollar store.

  9. I’ve watched most of the Phillies games on tv this year and it has been extremely frustrating. The team has a lot more talent than is reflected in their won-lost record. They have lost a ton of one run games (11-23 record) due to starters who can’t or won’t throw strikes, a bullpen that has been extremely unreliable, an extremely undisciplined approach to hitting with men on base, a plethora of bonehead mistakes in the field and on the base paths and some inexplicable managerial decisions.

    In my opinion, the good news is that a lot of this stuff is relatively easy to correct and that the Phillies may actually be a lot closer to turning the corner than one would think, based upon their record. Let’s hope!

    1. SIFPA – Have to disagree with you. There is precious little talent on this team as currently constructed. To lose a lot of one run games, your bullpen and offense have to really suck. And they do. I see hope here and there for the starting pitching. But the offense is woeful, and aside from one or two pitchers, the pen is a disaster area.

      This team’s problem is an overall lack of talent. Some of that can be helped by players now toiling in the minors. But a lot of the hope is wishful thinking. The overwhelming majority of those minor league stars will not be productive major league players. And almost none of them have actual star potential. The best asset the Phillies have going for them is money. They have and will continue to have tons of financial flexibility to use in various ways. Although, historically, when the Phillies have financial advantage they have only occasionally used it. We’ll know if they will approach the future differently when Otani/Machado/Harper type talents come to market. And we’ll know more if they decide they need a pitching coach and a manager who will attract talent, rather than mostly leave us shaking our heads wondering why Galvis hits second or Rupp starts ahead of Knapp, or why Andres Blanco and Ty Kelly don’t hit 10th in a nine man lineup.

      1. When it comes to projecting ‘star’ potential for minor leaguers,. that can be a tricky thing with some of them.
        Franco has been a let down from such plus 2013/2014 minor league seasons…Altherr, so far, just the opposite.
        I look at the two Yankees….Sanchez in 2015 at Trenton was considered lazy and had a just an ok season , then the Yankees promoted him to AAA and he seem to come alive, then in 2016 he exploded on the scene.
        Judge was terrible and a real bust last August and September and Yankee fans saw a strikeout happening every at bat it seemed…..spring training he turned it around.
        So to say guys like Crawford, Hoskins, Kingery, Alfaro, Williams and Cozens….’none of them have actual star potential’ may be a little premature.
        They may not be annual July all-stars, but they could be players that will get a team to the playoffs.

        1. Cozens and Williams K% and .obp will push them out of the league . Cozens Hugh power will keep in the league longer. Altherr is RH and also better then Williams is now.Alfaro is Catcher so who knows when he’ll be ready . Crawford needs to get it going . Kingery is your stud has it all.

    2. Partly right – the Phillies are better than their 29-58 would indicate. Using the run differential correlation to W/L record, the Phillies “should” be 34-53 (i.e., five additional wins).

      Partly wrong – the Phillies are not that close to turning the corner and, IMO, many of the rosier projections for 2017 were overly optimistic. In 2016 the Phillies finished at 71-91. However, this record was skewed by winning a lot of 1-run games early in the season. Again, using the run differential correlation, the Phillies “should” have finished 2016 with a record of 62-100 (i.e., nine fewer wins).

      One possible conclusion from this is that the run differential correlation is imperfect, which is of course true. However, the correlation has been shown to be quite accurate over a large sample size.

  10. The phillies will be getting 60 to 80 HR’s next year from players now at LHV, I think this is more than a little productive.

    1. That’s wonderful. I suppose you mean Hoskins and Kingery, maybe Cozens. Who else will be supplying these homeruns? And you’re replacing two of the more productive manor league hitters with Hoskins and Kingery. So, how much better does that make the team? There’s still no replacement for offense at shortstop or third base coming from AAA. And the outfield is mostly already here, with Williams in the majors. He is far from a polished major league outfielder, although he certainly has talent. Altherr is the best outfielder this organization has produced in a while. So, there’s one possibly very good player, although he’s already in the majors and the team all around him is woeful at best.

      I like projecting minor league talent as much as the next guy, but this current bunch of instructors and evaluators in the minor leagues has an abysmal track record. It seems as if anyone who gets through the Phils minor leagues to the majors with a clue how to play pro ball came by it all on his own. The pitchers get to the majors with no more pitches than they graduated with from high school and the hitters rarely increase their plate discipline or situational awareness more than they had as teenagers. Look at teams that actually develop players and tell me the Phillies can consistently compete with them. The Cards, for instance. And for a long time, the Braves, and now Boston. It would be nice for the Phillies to create an organization that can be considered anywhere near as good as those. They had it back in the 1970’s and 1980,s, and for a short time in the early/mid 2000’s. But it’s never lasted too long.

      I heard Bob Scanlan, now a Padres announcer, talking about why he signed with the Phils back in the 1980’s rather than taking his UCLA scholarship. It was because at that time, the Phils were an organization with a history of good player development. Sadly, he got in on the very end of that era. And sadly for us, we rarely get sustained success of that kind.

      1. Thingruel – I know right? . . . I don’t know what’s wrong with these guys, baseball isn’t a hard game or anything . . .

      2. This is just negative nonsense. Phils have had their share of hits and misses. Boston? Look at all the former prospects who missed. It’s a numbers game. Bring in lots of talent and hopefully some of them make it. It’s not as easy as you make it sound to turn a good player into a great player. Teaching can only work so much. Give me talent!

      3. So based on what I read, the Phillies were good at developing players back in the 70’s and 80’s when they had talent and again in the early 2000’s when they had talent but not the other times when they didn’t have talent?

        Maybe the problem isn’t in player development but rather in their talent acquisition?

        1. That’s very likely part of it. However, it sounds like you’re saying it’s not the same people picking the talent and picking the people who develop it. It is exactly the same people, and that’s why I said both development and acquisition are problems for the Phillies. Of course, there’s no way of really knowing if a good organization would have developed the draft picks the Phillies made better than the Phillies did. However, it certainly seems like they’ve made more than their share of poor picks in the draft, and avoided spending on a lot of the better Latin players for the majority of the 50 plus years I’ve been a fan.

          1. They are not the same people. The Phillies have turned over their ownership, FO, Minor league management staff, scouting directors, etc. over the last 30 years. So either they just can’t ever hire anyone who can evaluate and find talent or they are like most other teams who sometimes hit and sometimes miss.

            There are certainly other organizations who have been better run over certain periods of time but all organizations go through cycles in player development.

            Since 2000, there have only been 4 teams with more WS appearances than that Phillies (NYY- 4, SF -4, STL-4, BOS-3) and 4 more teams that also have 2.

            There are 8 teams with more playoff appearances than the Phillies 5 and 3 other teams with 5.

            Too many in the fan-base are unrealistic in their expectations. The Yankees and Cardinals are the only 2 franchises that have more than 10 playoff appearances over the last 16 seasons that you can point to as teams without any real extended down periods. The Braves have 9 appearances but those were all from 2000-2009 with Maddox, Glavine, etc. Boston has had 8 appearances but also have finished last in their division 3 times in the last 6 seasons. Every other team in the majors have had periods of struggles

            Right now the Phillies are terrible, 5 years ago they were probably the best team in baseball. 5 years from now, ???

      4. Yeah- it’s not like they developed Utley, Howard, Rollins, Burrell, and Hamels after Bob Scanlan

    2. I’ll take the over if Williams counts as LHV also. Cozens, Hoskins, Williams, Alfaro, Kingery, Quinn maybe, JP maybe… a different team…

  11. Before the season started I suggested that maybe we should reserve our opinions on Cesar Hernandez and got, ughh, less than positive feedback. Backed a signing of JD Martinez as well so we could flip him for prospects later during the season. I should probably stick to my guns more often…

    1. Sorry, Cesar had actually played fine other than the injury and a little slump. He’ll be back next week. And JD wasn’t a free agent do that made no sense. He will be a free agent after this year.

      1. His power was a mirage. Was more than just him being in a slump. He is very likely the same player he’s been the past 2 years which isn’t bad but is probably his ceiling

  12. Twitter reports saying Franco is on the block , but they want something major in return….

    Don’t think anyone is going to give something major for .215 hitting pull hitter …

    1. Watching the homerun contest last night, I envisioned Cozens and Hoskins participating in the near future.

  13. Raimfer Salinas, OF, Venezuela…a top ten ranked player, number 6 by MLB.com….have not seen any team linked to him yet.
    Perhaps the Phillies are acquiring the extra money to sign him…though I would think he will garner over a million dollars.

  14. If you’re looking for prospects on the block that can be had for just money … the Phillies could consider recently graduated HSRHP Jack Conlon. Baltimore drafted him in the 4th round of June’s draft. The Orioles didn’t like something on an MRI and decided not to offer him a contract. MLB has declared Conlon (#239 on BA’s top 500) a FA. He can go to the highest bidder. He won’t count against a team’s draft pool. If Conlon doesn’t get an offer he likes, he can honor his college commitment to Texas A&M. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi1FYPTlp4g
    I’m not wild about the kid’s talent, but he’s probably worth offering 500-600 thousand dollars to. If he needs TJ, let him rehab and see what he becomes.

  15. Regarding some of the negative comments – well above this post – let’s not lose site of several Phillies victories —– Werth, Victorino, Blanco (last 2 years), inumerable bullpen operatives like JC Romero, Ken Giles, Deikman, Scot Eyre, along with a host of late round picks or gift free agents, Chooch, Some of the same people who were responsible for the foregoing are still active in some Philies capacity today.

    Baseball is littered with stars who were not top 100 prospects, or recognized as the next Babe Ruth et. al. Much more of the talent acquisition is attributable to luck, good fortune, and health than it is to some black box full of stats which tells teams who to choose. I dare say, many of today’s stars were not foreseen as the major contributors they have become. This organization continues to suffer from the poor talent acquisition and focus during the golden era 2007-2014 on top of just absolutely horrible bad luck – or complete lack of good fortune – witness the premature demise of Utley, Howard, Lee, Halladay.

  16. I just read the Matt Gelb chat today. He says that although JP has been a disappointment this year, he was previously over ranked, and “everyone within the Phillies organization knew it. He is a good player, not a future All Star.” Is this accurate in anyone’s opinion here? I believed he was thought to be a top level prospect by everyone in the organization, and most outside, and certainly looked at as more than a future “good player.” And, if that is the case, then maybe we are over valuing the strength of this farm system despite having some “depth.”

    1. There’s a decent chance he makes an all-star game or two, but I doubt he will be a perennial all-star, with the talent currently there in the league. He has the kind of skill set that is still undervalued with good SS defense and high OBP.

      1. Rei…tend to agree.
        He could end up JRoll.2, who was actually an approx. .270/330 guy for the most part.
        And that will be fine with me, though i think he will have a higher OBP than JRoll ever did…and hitting in the number 2 hole hopefully…that is about what is most important.

    2. Matt, I believe that is revisionist history. Crawford was the face of the rebuild from day one. Every year but this year he was moved up a level during the year. 2013: GCL to Lakewood. 2014: Lakewood to Clearwater. 2015: Clearwater to Reading. 2016: Reading to Lehigh Valley. The Phillies didn’t do this thinking the kid would be average. I am sure they had him penciled in as the opening day 2017 starting SS. He won’t even be the starting SS opening day 2018 and who knows beyond that.

      Even if the kid turns out to be average it will be a major disappointment and anybody in the Phillies organization or outside the organization that says otherwise is covering for themselves.

      1. Gelb is stating what others have said . . . I happen to agree. I don’t think many on here thought he would ever be as good as Rollins was and I remember a lot of scouts and other phillies beat writers saying the same thing.

  17. More recent transactions:
    Casey Fien from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL. Shoulder impingement
    Mark Paterson released by Lehigh Valley.
    John Richy released by Reading.
    Gregori Rivero assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport.

    1. ‘John Richy released by Reading.’…well that is it from Aug 2015…the final and closing chapter on the Chase Utley trade.

  18. NL and Blanket, that is my question. I don’t know that Gelb is full of crap, and I tend to think like NL that there is some backside covering up beginning to form. I am not debating whether or not JP can improve his game, I still hope he can. I was struck by Gelb’s definitive point that everyone in the organization believed he was over hyped and looked at as a good, not star caliber player.

    1. When you are ranked as high as 4, 5 and 6 by BP, MLB and BA respectively, and that was just last year, there has to be so validity in his future value.
      I mean …could they all be wrong, now twice, on Phillies prospects in the last 6 years!

  19. Please let me know your thoughts. But is the only highlight or positive item in the first half of the season the play of Aaron Altherr?

    Is he a legit outfielder and can we count on him as a starter for the next 5 to 6 years?

  20. He seems to be legit, and he has 14 HRs. He plays terrific defensively and can play all 3 OF spots. I think Galvis had a good 1st half. His OBP is awful, but GG defense and some power and a .250 BA can play him at the 8 Spot on a good team. Nola has pitched very well lately and can be a 3, if wishes come true, and there has been some positives from Pivetta. That would be my list.

  21. Looking forward to the trades coming out of the all star break. With all the absurd hype around Aaron Judge, I expect Cozens to be up in September maybe August in the event of injury.

    It’s time to clear out guys to make room. Rupp, Neshak, Joseph, Nava, Kendrick, & Benoit.

    I’m not ready to trade off Franco, Doobie, Freddy, or Cesar yet. They should evaluate offers in the off-season.

    My August Lineup:
    1-Cesar, 2B
    2-Doobie, CF
    3-Hoskins, 1B
    4-Altherr, RF
    5-Williams, LF
    6-Alfaro, C
    7-Franco, 3B
    8-Freddy, SS

    Note Franco in 7-hole, the injection of new players in the lineup could take the pressure off of him.

    1. Noway is Hoskins 3 hole guy way to slow.Franco maybe having a bad yr but his k% is 13% he has the most natura! Power of that group. Alfaro no way he’s coming up until September. Phillies could go Morgan, Knapp for the rest of the yr. So a Ceaser, Herrera, Altherr, Franco, Knapp, Hoskins, Williams , Galvis . Plus whoever comes up for Nava will be playing alot . there sitting Williams against lhp pitching . Wow there really not going to win 50ty games.

      1. I would think Roman Quinn would be in the mix here as well.

        If Hoskins has 1.000 OPS potential, which everyone here thinks he has, that makes him the best hitter in the lineup. Typically the best hitter bats out of the 3-hole.

        That is certainly not Franco. He should not be rewarded to hit in such spot.

        Alfaro is out of options after this year, there is no reason to not bring him up if Rupp is traded. His walk rate won’t change over the last 2 months.

        I forgot to mention that Hellickson will probably be traded off as well or DFA’d given his performance this year.

        1. Huh, Hellickson hasn’t been terrible this year? He’s been consistently what he is, back of the rotation starter who gives you innings. He’s on pace to be a 2 war player in 2017…

          He certainly won’t be DFA’d..

          1. Not if a team won’t trade anything for him given a stocked market & he is taking innings away from another pitcher. So if they will pay him either way, cover his entire salary & asked for a high ranked single A player in return.

            Pivetta & Lively deserve to stay up.

            1. He’s not taking innings away from anyone. They don’t have 5 other guys who are ready to carry a full inning load for the entire season…

        2. Alfaro defensive is what bothers some and if can’t walk in AAA .there’s going to be a hell of a lot of swing and Miss and very low .obp on that team. Hoskins , you can’t the worst Defensive players in the league aka he might be pulled for Stassi in the late ings. plus he will be the slowest player on the team . He want come from AAA hitting .350 with 40 hr and 120 RBIs his first couple of years.

      1. Mata would be an ideal pick-up for Neshek…does not need 40 protection for 2/3 more years and is already in the SALLY at his young age with plenty of potential .
        Also Chavis may be a good third base candidate with power.
        And Nogosek…..perhaps future closer, cannot have enough high-velo relievers.

  22. Yankees, Red Sox and Royals in on Neshek. I would think the Nats will come calling also. The good news is that Dombrowski is not Cherington and he does not horde prospects, so if he thinks a guy helps them win this year, we may see a decent return for Neshek.

    1. The Nationals are in an interesting spot because the back end of their bullpen is terrible but they don’t need the help to win the division. Their problem is when they hit the playoffs…

      Do they think they can use their 4th-5th starters as a bullpen arm come playoff time??

      1. There is no way they are going to do that. They have already blown enough playoff opportunities by not making key trades before the playoffs to acquire the pieces needed to win a WS. I’m not saying they will trade away their entire future to get what they need for a playoff run, but I think they know enough not to rely on their 4th and 5th starters to fill that role. They need to learn the lesson that overpaying for what you need come playoff time is part of the drill – and pay they will.

  23. Early attention is being given, rightly, to the Phils’ position as the likely 1-1 selector in the 2018 Rule 4 draft. By the same token, the Phils are likely to stand first in line to select in the December Rule 5 draft. I can see the Phils taking 2 picks as they did in the 2015 Rule 5 draft when they were in the same draft position.

    While there may be a lot of trade activity and other roster moves in the intervening period, the early look suggests that the Phils will not be pressed with hard decisions to make regarding its 40 man off-season roster. Last year the Phils had Hoby Milner selected by the Indians but he was returned as someone they couldn’t justify retaining on the roster for the season given the contribution he could be expected to make. In the same way, the Phils have a number of promising arms at AA and below who are vulnerable to selection, if not protected, but might be hard for a team to stash for an entire season as Milner was.

    I have focused attention on the Yankees as a team with many candidates — maybe as many as 52 in realistic terms — for their 40 man roster, again with the caveat that time offers the prospect of considerable roster change. The Yankees had 4 players selected of their payroll in 2016, 3 of whom were returned, so this is not a new predicament for them. I focused on the Yankees because, more than any other team, they set about stockpiling their farm system with both quality and quantity and, in that, they appear to have been too successful in the latter.

    There are 3 position players of particular interest whom the Yankees may find it hard to protect: recently promoted (to AAA) left-handed hitting 1B Mike Ford, recently promoted (to AAA) left-handed hitting OF Billy McKinney and AA 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada. Ford is a 1B only and projects as a substantial improvement over Brock Stassi, if the Phils were inclined to keep a backup 1B in ’18. McKinney, who has been ranked as a top 100 prospect in the past, has exploded at Scranton-Wilkes Barre but still is buried in the Yankee system behind a host of young outfielders. His overall pedigree as a first round pick compares favorably with guys the Phils could pencil in for ’18. Estrada projects as an upgrade over any utility infielder on the Phillies or Valentin or Canelo, within the system.

    On the pitching side, because of overstocking the Yankees are likely to trade or DFA some young arms that would warrant interest from the Phils. In addition to that, the Yankees have languishing at AAA pitchers like Caleb Smith, Tyler Jones and Joe Mantiply. They project as upgrades over guys like Thompson, Appel, Pinto and Morgan whom the Phils will have to sort out in roster terms before December.

    Picking first or second, I’d be amazed if the Phils are not active again in the Rule 5 with prospects for improving their power hitting and backend starting pitching.

    1. Are any of these players candidates in a Neshek & Tommy Joseph trade? Would make sense if other trades cleared up the logjam that currently exists.

  24. I think a lot of us are going to be disappointed come month’s end. There just isn’t enough of a market for Hellickson, an injured Kendrick, Benoit, or Joseph. If these guys can be moved via trade, not much of anything is coming back.

    With Hellickson, Benoit, and Kendrick, the Phillies are going to have to eat just about all of their remaining salaries to get even a decent prospect. At the beginning of the season, it looked like these guys (and Buchholtz) would be good chips. Not any more.

    1. ciada….you still have the waiver-trade option thru August 31st for those players not moved prior to the non-waiver trade deadline later this month.

    2. I’d love to be able to argue with you on this subject, but I think you are spot on. Neschek is the only one of value, with the exception of Kendrick if he can play about 10 days straight off the DL. I think Joseph has to be packaged to get anything back.

      1. Maybe the Phillies will try to get more J2-2017 money from trading some of their players who would appear not to have prospect return value.
        The one international top ten guy still dangling out there is Venezuelan OFer Raimfer Salinas, and Klentak has already moved a few players in minor transactions to add money to the pot.
        If they were able to sign him that could be a coup of sorts.

  25. The Blue Jay’s have put up Estrada, Francisco Liriano,Joe Smith, and JP Howell on the market.

  26. As I posted on the 7-11 thread, I attended the rain suspended Crosscutter’s game. I wrote about Haseley maybe not being ready to jump two levels just yet. Read it if you so desire and clobber me all you want. I’m just trying to be informative and honest.

  27. From Nick Cafardo article in The Boston Globe:
    “The Phillies are interesting in that they have a top-notch farm system, money to spend, and players to trade. That trifecta is rare. First baseman Tommy Joseph is likely available because prospect Rhys Hoskins will take over the position next season, if not this year. Third baseman Maikel Franco, starter Jeremy Hellickson, and reliever Joaquin Benoit will be available. They also have an eye on setting up for the future, which is why acquiring Stanton and Yelich from Miami isn’t out of the question.” https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/07/08/expect-more-supply-than-demand-trade-deadline/H7rT7VBLdcVwpSAnZGb41M/story.html

    1. This is better article no Fb connection . Now sports radio Philly and Ken Rosen for Mlb have reported the are in on Yelich but not On Stanton. This is the 3rd time I hear this since yesterday form 3 outlets. Now Miami WANTS Pospects not ANy PLAYERS ON THE MLB ROSTER . BUT they maybe interested on a rehabing player . ALSO The MARLINS Want YOUNG PITCHING Prospects and Maybe an OF .
      http://www.sportstalkphilly.com/2017/07/phillies-rumors-club-has-expressed-interest-in-yelich-not-stanton-.html

      1. I have been thinking about G. Stanton. If he is not traded by 7/31. The Phillies are in the cat bird seat if they want him. The Fish will put him on waivers the Phillies will have first claiming rights. Even though they would like to get something for him, they would probably decide the Phils are not offering enough for the money they want the Marlins to kick in. That being the case they could let him go. The Phils would have to decide ahead of time if they are willing to take the whole contract, cause that’s what might happen

    2. Cafardo is much criticized by Boston readers more familiar with him than I. They have a hard time pointing to any accurate predictions he’s made. Having an eye for the future can suggest a lot of transactions short of going for Stanton, who has a no trade clause. If he were induced to leave a cost-cutting uncompetitive team, would it be to go to the team with the smallest committed budget going forward and which just happens to have the worst record in baseball. No person whose opinion I respect has made a case linking Stanton to the Phils.

  28. Please! Please! Yelich and a bad contract player for prospects, Hernandez (if Gordon goes to the Blue Jays), and the Hot Dog. Do it!

  29. Romus, this is where we start to see what we have in Matt Klentak as a GM. Remeber when the Braves took on Matt Kemp’s contract? I am expecting something like that along with the Neshek and Kendricks trades.

    1. Agree.
      The next two weeks we will see how aggressive or non-aggressive the GM is.
      I think Neshek is a no-brainer with all the contenders liking relievers these days for the playoffs.
      Kendrick will probably be a waive trade in August if he cannot get back on the field in 10 days or so.
      Hellickson is a long shot……selling low looks to be what he will end up…he more or less painted himself into a corner. Just not sure what happens there.
      ToJo….now this is what I want to see him do something with at the deadline…Hoskins needs to play. Yankees are still in play I think.
      Nava perhaps something minor in return.

  30. Quintana just got the Chi Sox Eloy, Dylen Cease, Matt Rose and Bryant Flete with Eloy being the cream of that crop

    WTG Rick Hahn

    1. Rick Hahn has been killing it over the past year. Eloy Jiminez is exciting, and you can add Dylan Cease to a stable full of Power Arms in that White Sox system.

  31. A top 10 prospect, and a Top 100 prospect, plus, for Quintana. Good haul for WSox, and great move for the Cubs. I have had about my fill of being non-players in the league, and I know all about patience, but I expect Klentak to make a move that brings Major League talent to the team. Talent that will be here for a while. An Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner move, and a “change of scenery for a guy with a substantial contract” move. Something that shows aggressiveness on the part of the GM. I hope I am not setting myself up for disappointment. Anyone can trade Neshek for a Lottery ticket.

  32. Keith Law has released his midseason Top 50. http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7372 Two Phillies made his list:

    31. Scott Kingery, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
    Kingery hit eight homers in his first two years in pro ball, and is now at 22 this year even with a midseason promotion from Double-A to Triple-A. He’s a 70 defender at second base and a 70 runner, so it won’t take much power to make him an above-average regular, with lack of patience really the only flaw in his game right now.

    48. Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
    Moniak is still just 19, so it’s early to sound the alarm, but he hasn’t looked good at the plate in low-A, especially against lefties (.214/.256/.298, not seeing breaking stuff at all), and seems less advanced as a hitter than expected, although he’s still showing good range in center field.

    Top 5 are:
    1. Amed Rosario
    2. Gleyber Torres
    3. Rafael Devers
    4. Victor Robles
    5. Eloy Jimenez

    1. Hinkie…heard something that Moniak’s added strength and size may take him a little while to adjust to, and will have to recapture the ‘quick twitch factor’ he had last season after the draft. Not sure how reliable that assessment is.

    1. Saw that story yesterday. Gotta feel bad for the kid growing up in a home headed by that guy. BTW … Jay Groome made Keith Law’s Top 50 at #20.

    2. Keith Law on the Groome situation:
      “It may have hurt Groome in the draft last year; there were a lot of rumors about bad makeup, and I think most folks knew there was at least one family member involved with drugs, but I don’t know how much that drove Groome down to pick 12 – or if it was just general concern about a HS pitcher. I know a lot of false stories were out there about him last spring and even after he signed.”

      1. I definitely feel for the kid and hope he can overcome this. You always love your parents and you always love your kids. When things like this happen that love doesn’t just go away.

    3. Was it not said the Phillies had some concerns about the Kids “makeup” that was code for the old man

  33. Keith Law got peppered with Phillies questions today:

    Pops: Sixto Sanchez deserves a place at the table. Have you seen his electric arm?
    Keith Law: Saw him last night and tweeted about him several times. Not top 50, somewhere in the next tier.

    Andrew: Before the last two were promoted, Lakewood had an all time grade 80 pitching staff of names: Sixto Sanchez, Adonis Medina, Ranger Suarez, JoJo Romero
    Keith Law: I hadn’t realized that but yes, that’s a murderer’s row of great names.

    Mike F: Just finished Smart Baseball and loved it! I was a little surprised to see Kingery on the list at 31 but Hoskins not make it. Is it mostly because of defense? Thanks for all the writing and the chats!
    Keith Law: Hoskins is 1b only and there’s still a lot of doubt about whether it’s going to be more than just average power in the majors. I think he’s at least an everyday player, but I think Kingery is at least an above-average everyday player.

    Joel Embiid: What are your thoughts on J.P. Crawford since he’s fallen out of your top-50? Should Phillies fans be alarmed?
    Keith Law: I got nothing but negative reports on him from scouts and execs this month. I heard unanimous downgrades on his defense at short, and multiple scouts say he’s swinging for the fences too much and becoming much less disciplined at the plate. I’m alarmed, and I’ve been a big fan of his since high school. I don’t know if he’s sulking, or if he thinks hitting bombs will get him promoted, or maybe I was just wrong about his ability, but this doesn’t sound like the guy I’ve seen every year for the past four or five years.

    Dario Saric: Why didn’t Sixto Sanchez crack the top-50?
    Keith Law: The simple answer is that I think there are fifty prospects who are currently more valuable (or valued, by the industry and me) than he is.

    Ryan: Philly.com had a very impressive article about Sixto Sanchez’s start last night, quoting four scouts in attendance. I believe you were also in attendance from your Twitter account. Thoughts and would that have changed today list at all? Thanks!
    Keith Law: I finished this list after I got home from Lakewood; if I thought I had to change the list based on one 62-pitch outing, I would have, but didn’t. It’s an 80 fastball and it’s very easy. The rest is a work in progress.

    Jason: What is Kingery’s ceiling?
    Keith Law: All-Star ceiling. 70 glove, 70 run, at least 55 power now. Wish he’d show more patience – he is up there to hit, and if he gets a pitch, especially a fastball in the zone, he thinks he can drive, he’s after it, which is fine until he faces pitchers who can avoid those areas in the strike zone. But I’m buying.

    Marc : What’s your take on Hoskins? Some Phillies fans think Tommy Joseph is “too good” to trade away…
    Keith Law: I would have Hoskins up in the majors already.

    Darren: Who was the toughest omission? the number 51 guy you couldn’t fit on the list but wanted to?
    Keith Law: There wasn’t just one guy, but others I considered at least: Morejon, Conner Greene, Ronald Guzman, Kevin Maitan (just too little info), Sheffield, Fernando Romero, Sixto, Alzolay.

    Joe: Keith, how concerned are you about the underwhelming seasons of Moniak and Rutherford?
    Keith Law: quite concerned, for different reasons – Rutherford because he’s already 20, Moniak because he really doesn’t like left-handed pitching at all.

    PJ: When Bour has a breakout year you indicate it’s a fluke. When Kingery has a huge power spike is it a fluke or him getting stronger, older, etc. When’s the cutoff on determining that?
    Keith Law: Bour is 29. And I don’t believe I ever called it a “fluke.”

    Salty: Missed you at Lakewood by a day a couple weeks ago – wanted to check out Sixto live. Would you rank the following based on pure stuff alone Groome/Keller/Sixto? Of the three, does Keller have the more likely chance to become a #1/#2, or is Groome on the same level?
    Keith Law: Sixto probably has a top three fastball in all of the minors. He hit 100 six times in 46 or 47 fastballs last night, and it’s got a little life to it. Groome and Keller have way better breaking stuff.

    … and a couple of other tidbits that may interest some on this site:

    Robbie: If you were GM of the Orioles, what would be your plan for Machado?
    Keith Law: Have to trade him. Now or winter, but there’s really no other option.

    Neema: Do you think there’s >20% chance that AJ Puk makes the necessary improvement to become a Top-10 prospect?
    Keith Law: I’d probably take the under on that. I rarely have more than 3 pitchers in my top 10, and I don’t feel like i could see him as a top 3 pitching prospect.

    1. KLAw does say what I have been saying about Manny all along….he goes in a trade
      in Orlando this December if the Os do not extend him….hopefully MacKlentak can pull the trigger and get him in a sign and trade deal with Duquette.

      1. Hinkie….here is what I would dangle out there for the Os on Manny…four- 4- one.
        1. V.V.
        2. Franco
        3. Herrera
        4.Their choice of one….Drew Anderson/Eshelman or Gowdy

        1. Romus … a Machado trade would certainly include Franco. He’d be Machado’s immediate replacement at 3rd. My guess is the O’s would want MLB ready talent back. They need pitching in a bad way. So, your proposal sounds reasonable. The question is … does that beat whatever offer the Yankees put together ?

          1. Yeah….Yankees can throw out there better prospects, but pitchers are what most GMs want to have also…..so they would probably have to put a Severino in that package. Of course they may also want to get Harper, so that is also a factor.

  34. I need some help, what order would you rank the kids who started the year pitching in lake wood? I don’t get to see them so it is hard to judge off of box scores. If someone could give a ranking Id appreciate it.

    Primarily Medina, Romero, Suarez, and sixto. Or if i missed someone with good stuff whos numbers don’t jump out.

    1. Sixto, Suarez, Romero, Medina. I wouldn’t argue if somebody wanted to switch Romero with Suarez. Then it would be Fanti and Falter. Just an opinion having seen each pitcher one, two or three times.

  35. Shnizzle what is the best trade case scenario for the Phillies in a return for trading Tommy Joesph ? Jeffrey Todd I Mean …. It wouldn’t be much of anything. Matt : when can we and what can we expect form Rhys Hoskins ,when he finally gets called up ? Jeffery Todd : I’d not expect a ton and just be pleasantly surprised if he turns out to be a real Major league hitter. Phillies have every reason to give him a chance at some pt , but I also don’t think they are planning around him as a foundational piece. From Mlb trade rumors chat

    1. Tim,

      I won’t predict what Hoskins will do in the Big Leagues, but I will say what he has done so far — beat all predictions and critics.

      I remember seeing Hoskins play for the Threshers. After all the sort of “big lug” reports I had read, I was surprised to see what looked like a athlete. A big athlete. Maybe slow afoot. But an athlete.

      I also posted my observations about him at the time and remember the dismissive responses, some of which said he didn’t have the bat speed to hit at the upper levels. Well, I’m a fan, not a scout, so all I know is my observation and I didn’t see an especially slow bat speed. Now, it turns out Hoskins had the fasted bat speed at the Futures Game where he was up against all those highly rated prospects.

      My money is on Hoskins to once again prove the doubters wrong and to be a solid Major League regular. Again, not a prediction, but he’s got a track record.

  36. Hey, I finally found a good comp for Tocci. Check this out:

    Age 19 season:

    Tocci: .287/.339/.363; .702 OPS: 5.7% BB rate; 14.8% K rate, .076 ISO; .348 BABIP
    Player B: .267/.317/.386; .702 OPS; 5.9% B rate; 19.7% K rate; .119 ISO; .325 BABIP

    Identical OPS marks! And they even play the same position! And they’re both good defenders.

    Uh, um, well . . . I’m not sure if this is a good sign for Tocci or a really bad sign for Mickey Moniak.

    1. Moniak is having a middling/okay year for the #1 pick in the draft. Nothing more. He does some things well and other things not so well. Of course expectations should be higher for Moniak than others. That comes with being the #1 pick and pocketing $6.1M. If Josh Stephen was having the same year at Lakewood that Moniak is having we would all be thrilled. Because Stephen was a #11 pick and received $600,000. Fair? Of course it is fair. That is the nature of professional sports.

      We can give Moniak the benefit of the doubt for another year or two then he needs to produce to show he warranted the #1 pick. Too many people coddle past Phillie #1 picks and refuse to admit that they aren’t what we thought they would be. Some people still think Mark Appel will be a quality major league pitcher no matter how lousy his pro career has been with two organizations. For no other reason than he was a past #1 pick of the entire draft by Houston.

      1. Of course, it all could be a moot point, according to some, if he is included in a deal to get the Marlin’s Yelich.

        1. Stanton scares the hell out of me with the 10 year contract, amount of money and especially the no trade clause. I do not believe in no trade clauses. If Hamels didn’t have a no trade clause the trade with Houston, not Texas, would have happened.

          Agreed that Moniak would be part of the deal. That is the least of my concerns. Giving up Anderson at Reading and the A ball pitching prospects worry me.

          Not even taking into account Yelich/Stanton, Klentak needs to clear space and I mean now. No need to wait even another day. All you need now is for Neshek to pull a hammy covering first base.

  37. Back to our GM. I want to see him be aggressive, and there is no reason to wait until July 31. He has to make some positive moves, and I want to see him think “outside of the box”. I don’t care how smart he is, he needs some riverboat gambler in him if he is going to turn this team into a Playoff team anytime in the near future. As the second half starts, I am more interested in Klentak than anything else.

  38. Wow, the Red Sox just released Pablo Sandoval and are eating $49M of his contract.

    Red Sox have money to burn. Get this:

    They gave Rusney Castillo $72.5M for 1.7 WAR (so far) and Sandoval $95M for -2 WAR!

    It’s crazy that they can throw around this much cash.

  39. Remember when the Phillies were linked to Yasmany Tomas, who eventualy signed with the DBacks? $68.5M for -2.2 WAR. I guess we dodged a bullet there.

  40. Yankees’ Pineda needs Tommy John, and Bird may need ankle surgery. Joseph and Hellickson will fit well there, as I don’t see the Yankees paying the prospect cost for Sonny Gray or Gerrit Cole. And, I would trade Neshek before he pitches for the Phils again. Nothing better can happen, only worse.

    1. Yankees just traded for a 26-year old big power minor leaguer first baseman…Garret Cooper……also a RHB.
      You would think ToJo would be an upgrade for them.

  41. I was watching the phillies and sixers at same time last night. I switch after 4 batters to sixers, cause I thought Pivetta had outstanding stuff, and would win easy, I Mean his breaking ball and fastball were outstanding to those first four hitters. Turn the tv back on its 8 to 2, wow what happen to him?

  42. With the trade deadline coming up I thought I would list, in my opinion, Phillies minor league untouchables going from highest level of pro ball to lowest:

    (1) Kingery
    (2) Sanchez
    (3) Ortiz
    (4) Morales-very intrigued by his size and youth.
    Haseley not included as I don’t believe he is allowed to be traded this soon.

    There are many kids I would hate to trade but wouldn’t necessarily refuse to listen to offers:
    Anderson, Suarez, Romero, Medina, Brito, Young and Muzziotti.

    On the big team I would not trade Nola, Altherr and Franco. Really love Nola’s stuff. Just needs to stay healthy. You trade Altherr and you just weaken one spot to help another. I have not given up on Franco and talk about selling low and maybe regretting it.

  43. I would like to see Matt Stairs get a chance to work with Dylan Cozens the way he did with Altherr. We could see similar results.

    With Haseley moving up quickly, Moniak should be made available in a trade for Yelich & Stanton. If somehow, MK can hold onto Altherr, Kingery, Cozens, & JP.

    Too many players that more than likely, we won’t need anyway, to trade:
    R. Quinn (# 7 Prospect) or N. Williams
    O. Herrera
    Moniak (# 2 Prospect)
    Anderson (# 20 Prospect)
    Lively

    I am sure the Marlins are scouting the farm & are pushing for better prospects. It is critical that MK stand his ground. The Marlins will probably wait until the deadline to pull the trigger since the team needs a chance to move up the standings, which is fine because the focus should be on moving Neshek, Hellickson, ToJo, Benoit, Kendrick, & others out.

    2018 Starting Lineup:
    1-Cesar, 2B
    2-Kingery, 3B
    3-Yelich, LF
    4-Stanton, RF
    5-A. Altherr, CF
    6-R. Hoskins, 1B
    7-Alfaro, C
    8-Freddy, SS

    Pullin, & Quinn as 4th, 5th OF

    This assumes an off-season trade of Franco with Kingery playing 3B in the fall league in preparation of Spring Training.

  44. Just for the record, I have no interest in Stanton and his contract. The big money hasn’t even started yet, and while I think he has great power, he will not be worth $32 Million a year. Yelich I really like, but I don’t think we are getting either one. This team has big holes throughout, and spending $300 Million for Stanton does make much sense. If he was the piece to make the team a contender, then the money doesn’t matter. There will be plenty of places to spend all of the Phils’ money, but not now, and not on Stanton. Just my opinion.

    1. matt13……..Stanton’s contract….does look to be a pretty bad contract long term…he turns 28 in November, so the end years are probably not going to be big production years from him……..2018:$25M, 2019:$26M, 2020:$26M, 2o21:$29M, 2022:$29M, 2o23:$32M, 2024:$32M, 2025:$32M, 2026:$29M, 2027:$25M, 2028:$25M club option ($10M buyout)
      and, Stanton may opt out of contract after 2020 season, plus there is a full no-trade protection.
      The new prospective owners are probably looking to move that contract.

        1. Jeff Loria really imploded on that thought process…..was it Dan Jennings that was the GM that drew up that deal?

      1. And yet still a similar contract to what Machado or Harper would want.

        It is the kind of move you make to kick start the team, similar to the Nationals with the Werth contract.

        The question is whether he will be productive through the end of the contract, & be prepared to put him at 1B later.

        The other option is to stay with what you have. Dylan Cozens has monster home run potential. Would his production be similar to Stanton in the next 2 years? A lineup with Yelich, Stanton, Cozens, Kingery would project well, even if Cozens takes a platoon role at first.

        What I like is it won’t cost you much in the farm system & isn’t all in like past trades. These aren’t really high projection players & there really isn’t room for all of them on the team. The cost is really on the back end like most of these contracts.

    1. Three names that I find appealing…Sox RHP Shawaryn or 3rd Chavis…and Yank’s RHP D. Acevedo.

    2. Amazing, love it. Great position to be in & almost pushes you into the trade with the Marlins for Stanton, since you will recover the prospects on the other side.

    3. Hinkie—-thanks for the notification. If you had not said something here I would never have seen or found that article. Quite exhaustive ! Meanwhile, Luzardo ends up in Washington ! Whatever, I hope something happens…soon ! Thank you again !

  45. I wouldn’t be thrilled with Shawaryn (even though he’s a local SJ kid). He’d be another back end starter. Chavis makes the most sense if Klentak makes a deal with the Red Sox. Devers is Boston’s next 3Bman. Chavis is blocked by Devers. The Phillies can obviously use 3B prospects. I don’t think the Yankees will give up Acevedo for Neshek. A #10 – #14 Yankee prospect is going to be more valuable than a #10 – #14 Red Sox prospect. For me, Yankees prospects #25, #26, and #28 are reasonable returns. They are pitchers Jorge Guzman, Freicer Perez, and 3Bman Dermis Garcia. If it’s the Nationals, I’d still want Jesus Luzardo.
    From this group, I’d rank the best return:
    1. Luzardo
    2. Guzman
    3. Chavis
    4. Garcia
    5. Perez

    1. Yeah….Luzardo would have a lot and probably the most upside of all the choices, but seriously doubt Mike Rizzo would offer him.
      And the Yankees would seem to have the better of all the choices left.
      And you are spot on…Devers will get the nod as the Sox next 3rd base candidate…so Chavis becomes expendable right now.
      .

  46. I am not good on trades, don’t know the value, but here goes the Yankees need a starter and first basemen and a bullpen arm. I believe. So package Joseph,, hellickson.. and Nestak and cash for two good prospects maybe Miquel Andujar and Nolan martinez

  47. i am intrigued by the fact that hoskins had the highest bat speed recorded at the futures game (76.6 mph) and wonder how meaningful that number is. i believe someone on this site concluded from this that hoskins has “elite” bat speed. i am an old man and a life-long baseball fan and have heard about bat speed forever, but i have never heard a number attached to it before sunday. my limited research found someone saying an average mlb player’s bat speed was (coincidentally) 76.6, and another about a high school kid who hit 100 in the batting cage. does anybody know what is considered “elite” bat speed or have any better info on the subject?

  48. So far Frazier to Boston , Doolittle and Madison to the Nats . 5 teams scouted Gray The Yanks, Boston , Brewers, and 2 others.

  49. The eighth inning specialist wasn’t very special again last night. I think that he is untradable at this point.

    1. Yeah, Romus. I mentioned the other day, I would expand the deal to land Luzardo. I suggested Neshek, Luis Garcia, and Daniel Nava for Luzardo, another player, and international money. Garcia has pitched well lately and has some of the best stuff in the Phillies system and is controllable beyond this year. Nava could have seen playing time with the Nats injuries to Eaton, Werth, and even Turner (who plays some CF). The Phillies couldn’t deliver a LHP like the A’s did with Doolittle.
      BTW … getting Sheldon Neuse (along with Jesus Luzardo) in that deal makes the pain a little more intense.

      1. I think Rizzo may have been hesitant trading within the division.
        Or…..Matt Klentak has a slow trigger finger.
        Fifteen more days…..hope he doesn’t procrastinate.

  50. Klentak needs to have faster and creative finger. Getting Yellich, Prado and the high priced reliver for Herrera, Lively, Moniak, Gowdy, Kilomey and Thompson.The Marlins have the ex. pirate pithching guru. Flip Prado {eat salary} and Joseph for Enns and Acevedo. Pull the trigger on Neshek and Hellboy; Anywhere! Go Phils!

    1. why not throw in Citizen’s Bank Park too….and how about Willy Penn, one Halliday no hitter ball, and a Thome bat……and let’s not forget the cheese steak.

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