Box Score Recap – 4/14/2013

Nick Hernandez rocketing up towards the top 30, with a couple really nice starts so far this year. He’s like Justin Bieber except I will gladly tolerate his success.

I added the graphic file now, also. I thought it was there earlier, but I guess not.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB.

4-14-13 boxscores

70 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 4/14/2013

  1. Not quite Bieber status, but it is nice to see Rosenberg pitch well now that they are stretching him out and it is great to see Hernandez, Colvin, and Miner pitch well as they try to get back on track.

  2. Its a shame to see Diekman regressing like this. He as incredible stuff and a nasty delivery, but doesn’t look like he’ll ever have enough control.

    1. If you follow his Twitter, it sounds like he is having some personal issues he is dealing with. Not to say I can draw a direct correlation from that to control problems, and it’s not like this is the first time he’s having control issues.

      1. It sounds like he has serious mental health issues.

        Schizophrenics frequently turn to religion when they don’t turn to drug/alcohol abuse. It’s usually one or the other.

        1. This is just pure trolling. I went and looked at the “issues” Jake Diekman is talking about. It appears he got dumped by a girl. Unless there was some disturbed stuff he deleted. More likely, “anonymous” here is just a familiar poster who has some mental health issues of his own.

          1. I’ve received tweets from Diekman – not personal, public tweets – that don’t make sense. Psychotic nonsense about angels and beings and quoted song lyrics mixed with who knows what. Just incoherent stuff. He needs to talk to a psychologist.

            I’ve seen no sign of any quirky sense of humor either.

            The incoherence reminds me a little of Jared Loughner’s YouTube “videos”. Those were so incoherent the few who saw them before he went off probably dismissed them as some sort of “trolling”. It turned out he was profoundly psychotic and obviously not responsible for what he did. He literally bounced off the walls at Springfield FCI for months while they forcibly medicated him.

            Of course, his “public defender” sold him out. But that ship has already sailed in so many different directions. The important issue here is to find out what is going on with Diekman before he just suddenly disappears.

  3. Martin might be better suited for the pen. Would like to see him and DeFratus up and the Durbin, Valdes or Horst garbage gone.

    If not this season, Morgan will be in the rotation next year.

  4. Nick Hernandez > Justin Bieber

    I’ll go a step further: Jeff Jackson + Reggie Taylor / Anthony Hewitt > Justin Bieber

    1. dividing by Anthony Hewitt is not a valid operation. Unless its a negative, not a zero, then its fine.

          1. What are you talking about, Hewitt took another walk yesterday, hope springs eternal.

    1. I saw the Iron Pigs last Saturday and Ruf looked passable and made a nice diving catch.

    2. The Phillies are going to have to go 3D in the outfield:
      Darin LF
      Domonic CF
      Delmon RF

      …to have any chance to win the division, and those three guys are going to have to rake like the continuation of their lives depends upon it.

      1. That might be the worst defensive outfield in the history of the game. There is no way they could hit enough to even get above negative value.

        1. I have seen nothing from Ben Revere to justify his presence. Anyone who sees him as anything better than MLB average with the glove is having hallucinations. This guy is a 4th outfielder/pinch runner. I really don’t believe Brown would be much worse with the glove in CF than Revere. As long as he doesn’t play singles into triples he’ll be fine.

          As for the corners being the worst in the game, without taking a comprehensive look around I would agree, but unless Laynce Nix is going to have a standout career year with the bat I don’t see another alternative. Perhaps you believe Utley and Howard are going to produce OPS numbers above .900 each and Young, Rollins and Chooch will average .850 between them?

          Even then, Revere is such a black-hole in the lineup that with the Halladay situation unlikely to have a happy ending and the Phillies unwillingness to utilize Ethan Martin and Adam Morgan in the bullpen I just can’t see another way for the Phillies to win the division.

          The lineup has to carry the team. They have to finish in the top five in runs scored in MLB to have any chance.

          1. Mayberry is likely to give you about the same thing at the plate as Young and is better defensively.

            1. No, I absolutely disagree and maintain what I said. That is the only special play Revere has made and he has made many other mistakes that an above average outfielder would not make. Revere plays a shallow CF, which he has not demonstrated to be a big advantage. Those are some of his mistakes, not making some catches that he should make given how shallow he is playing, and Revere has not run down some balls like tonight’s highlight catch because he’s playing shallow.

              In short, Revere’s range is nothing to be excited about.

              Where would Domonic Brown have been playing? He might have caught the ball as well because he was playing deeper. Brown will give up some more singles.He might have caught some of the deep balls Revere missed.

              Here are the important questions though 1)Who won the game tonight? and 2) Why did Cincinnati win?

              Why does any team win a game? There’s only one answer to that and Ben Revere’s .498 OPS is a severe handicap for the Phillies to attempt to overcome.

          2. Matt, THIS is why we need a better comment system where people are required to register to comment. No accountability for this kind of stuff.

            1. +1 – I vote everyone has to pay $1 per month to login to the website and provide their specific information to sign up and pay, and the proceeds go to Gregg, Brad, and Matt for their time in managing the site, etc.

            2. Agree…however a one -time start up fee of say $50, would deter the ‘trollers’, the FreeAECs of this world.

      2. You are kidding yourself if you think having Darin Ruf in a Major League OF is a key to help winning a division. He isn’t a major league OF, and his bat will be exposed over a signifcant period.
        Amaro already telgraphed what he thought of Ruf as a potential RH, OF, bat, when he signed Delmon Young for what is basically a 3 million dollar deal.
        Ruf will be a part of the Phillies lineup this year, only if Ryan Howard is injured, or both Delmon Young and Mayberry are injured at the same time.

        1. How will Ruf’s bat be “exposed”? I’ve seen nothing resembling a hole in his swing/plate coverage. He has good discipline and a good eye. I’ve seen him hit borderline “chin music” into the seats for a HR. I’ve seen him pound an outside fastball deep into the RF gap. I’ve seen him smash low and high pitches for HR.

          What have you seen?

  5. I made a comment back in spring training about how I was confused that Chace Numata (now the starting catcher for Lakewood) and Logan Moore (now the starting catcher at Clearwater) even made it through spring training. After playing 7 games each, I am not only confused at how they made it through spring training, but I am also confused as to how they were picked to be the starters. Numata is doing OK I guess, as he’s 7/25 (.280), but his backup, Carman is 6/15 (.400) and is only playing every 3rd or 4th game. Moore is 3/24 (.125) through 7 games. Both Numata and Moore have less than impressive numbers so far in their careers. I am still trying to figure out what they see in them. Yes, they are younger, but how long is it going to take before they mature?

    1. Keep in mind there are two reasons why catchers exist in the minor leagues – 1) they themselves are prospects, and 2) they are good catchers (receivers / throwers) that will help pitching prospects develop even if they’ll never be major leaguers themselves. Not saying that’s what these guys are but I know the org thinks very highly of Logan Moore’s catching and throwing skills.

    2. To echo Buddy, catchers often have other roles on the team (some are essentially supplemental pitching coaches)

      As for Numata he is still learning the position after being transitioned following being drafted in 2010. In 2011 he broke his hammate early in extended spring training and it wasn’t diagnosed until the summer. He is isn’t a big power threat but he has a good approach with gap power. He is still refining his work behind the plate but he is a great athlete (high school SS) with a plus plus arm (was touching 94 off the mound in high school). Numata has a major league future as he continues to grow. Carmen is 23 making his full season debut in Lo-A, he has to be a great teammate to even be on the team. As for the Clearwater catchers there really isn’t much there (Ludy was a 8th round pick but was a money saving senior sign at $15,000). If the catcher works well with the pitchers and gives them someone they feel comfortable throwing to, that is half the battle.

      1. Numata before becoming a phillie, was a ss and pitcher in HS and had never been behind the plate. I believe fastball was 92-93.

      2. So you take a 20 year old and put time and money into him hoping that by the time he’s 23, he has the skill set that Carman has at 23. I watched Carman in spring training. Defensively, he’s as good as anyone they have. He can hit for power without a great loss in average. In College, he was a four year starter and had one error in his last two years behind the plate. Say what you want, but you don’t win two Rawlings Gold Gloves without some serious skills. Do you bank on “potential” or proven skill?

        1. Darin Ruf won two Rawlings Gold Gloves and the reports on his defense were never exceptional either. And if Numata is equal to Carman in 3 years he probably won’t be starting either.

          1. You obviously have not seen the scouting report on Carman. I quote…..”outstanding defensive catcher who shuts down opposing running games. Displays outstanding power potential. Diligent worker. Will hustle for the extra base. Does that sound unexceptional to you? Have you seen him play?

            1. He’s a 4 year college player who was a 24th round pick. Not to disparage your friend or family member, but the Phillies and other major league teams have seen him play and have decided that he is not an outstanding prospect. That’s not to say he won’t get his chances along the way, but like any college player selected that late in the draft, he will have an uphill battle to reach the majors.

            2. He ruptured a disc at the beginning of his sophomore year and had to have it repaired. He won his two gold gloves after that. Most scouts ignored him after that but the Phillies took him despite that. Seems to me they saw a lot in him to take him after that kind of injury.

            3. Hey Handzus – your sarcastic response to John is out of line. He makes a valid point about proven skill and there are examples of this that can be seen up and down all the minor league club line ups in the Phillies organization. You want to talk about friends or family members then take a look at Logan Moore. His father, who is apparently a Phillie alum, makes his way to spring training to visit with the coaching staff, coordinators, and execs making his presence known. This has become an annual event. Now look at Moore’s stats this year (9 games – .188 avg – 2 errors – ? pass balls), albeit it’s early, but if you look back on the last 2 seasons his current numbers are consistent with what we are seeing now. Now tell me why he is in Clearwater; and furthermore, why he is getting all the run there. You have to give the Carman kid credit. He is making the most of his limited reps while Numatta, another underachiever defensively, is getting most of the run in Lakewood. IMO this is not about merit, but rather a tireless attempt to justify a draft pick signing that they shouldn’t have made in the first place. I will rest now and let you tell me how Numatta and Moore are new to the catcher position, but just so you know, they are both now into their 3rd year of pro ball I’m not buying that line anymore. It’s time to move on.

            4. I don’t get your argument of the Phillies playing Numata, while thinking he is the less good prospect, simply to justify the draft pick spent on him. Numata at round 14, wasn’t even that high a draft pick. The PHillies play the guys they think are the stronger prospects, with the exception that sometimes older guys who are better in the now, especially defensively at catcher, get playing time beyond their prospect status. That Carman is older and very good defensively suggests that the Phillies view Numata as the better prospect. It should be noted, however, that catchers are tricky and the Phillies are not always correct in their comparative assessments. Ruiz was always the backup, until midway through his season at Reading. The guys he subbed for did not turn out to be nearly as good as he is. So, under-rated catching sort-of prospects can elbow their way to the head of the line, when their on-field performance merits it.

            5. Or maybe Ruiz is an example of a guy who was not actually too old to make a contribution at the big league level. He didn’t make his debut until he was 27 years old. So there goes the guys to old to be a prospect agrument, especially at the catcher position. So maybe Stumpo at 24 – 25, and Carman at 23 – 24 should be considered to be right in the Phillies wheel house for guys who should be on the radar and therefore given the opportunity with playing time to show what they can do. Not road blocked by guys who have been given more than the lion’s share of playing time and haven’t put up the numbers to justify it.

            6. My response wasn’t meant to be sarcastic. As noted by Allentown, it’s not likely that the Phils are playing Numata simply because of his draft position. The age of a player is a big factor in their prospect status, and it’s likely the Phils see something in Numata that makes them think he could be a good player.

              As for Moore, I’m not sure about your comment on his defense. I haven’t seen him but I’ve read nothing but good things about his defensive tools. Personally, I thought Ludy should be the one getting the bulk of the playing time in Clearwater, but the Phils obviously think differently. They’re the ones who have the best chance to evaluate these players, and the ones who have the most to gain and lose by doing so. It’s in the team’s best interests to develop the best players they can, not to make their draft picks look better by giving them playing time. For example, Tyler Greene was picked higher than Numata and one year later, but he’s barely played at all this year. The players who are in the starting lineups most every day are the ones who the Phillies think have the best chance to be major leaguers.

            7. Handzus – stop drinking the kool aid and let your eyes tell you what is true. Look at Carman’s production again today. It simply speaks for itself. And for Moore, he was started in Lakewood last year and after a terrible start was sent to Williamsport when their season started where his offense and defense was pedestrian. He took away quality reps away from the other guys last season which was a short season to begin with. He then starts this year in Clearwater (his production and tools in no way support him being placed in high A) and he is getting the bulk of the run so far this year without the type of production to support that kind of playing time. So now he is taking quality reps from Stumpo and Ludy. It just doesn’t add up. Follow your eyes… the numbers don’t lie.

            8. Numbers won’t lie. Carman was 2 for 3 today and got on base all four plate appearances. Has at least one hit in every game played and has almost twice the average of Numata with just under half the AB’s. In fact, he’s hitting 161 points higher than anyone on the team, and is only seeing live pitches every third or fourth game. Make all the comments you want about age, potential, etc., but the numbers will tell it all in the end.

        2. You know, I had a long response half written, but what’s the use? We’ve had this debate 1,000 times, and 1,000 times the older, “polished” college non-prospect eventually fails, and the same crowd then forgets the lessons of the past. Maybe eventually one of these kids becomes the once in three generations exception to the rule that late round 4/5 year college players NEVER make to the majors (excepting the occasional relief pitcher, and even that is rare), but until then, it’s just not worth wasting energy on the the “debate.”

          1. Did notice you emphasized …’late round 4/5 year college players ‘….since many early round 2/3 year college guys have done exceptionally well.

          2. Of course, I do realize that the fact that Matt Rizzoti is among the league leaders in several offensive categories is strong evidence against my thesis.

            Oh, wait.

      3. This is Carman’s first full season period. He was drafted last year after his senior year of college. Numata has zero major league potential if he can’t hit. A .233 career average in a season of GCL and a season at Williamsport is far less than impressive.

        1. First full year in pros isn’t as big a deal for a college senior. He is automatically old for every league he is in. I think if a player wants to make a serious shot at becoming an MLB player, he helps himself a lot coming out after his junior year. That is the normal draft schedule for college draftee. A senior draftee will always have a steep hill to climb. Carman is off to a good start with the bat this season. If he continues, he will get more playing time. I discount his 2012 GCL experience, since he was 23-years old and playing with the little kids. If the Phillies had considered him a strong prospect post-draft, he would have been assigned to Williamsport. I think they saw him as an organizational player to help the young pitching. It is up to him to prove that he can be more than that.

  6. 6 IP theme from our starters last night. Every starter with an impressive outing, some better than others

    1. VERY encouraging sign by the starting pitchers yesterday. I’m a little concerned about a few of our better bats (Asche, Collier, etc) but its very early with plenty of time to turn it around. Colvin is showing nice improvement and Martin had a great bounce back start. Nick Hernandez is a very smart pitcher but we won’t know if there’s anything there until he gets to Reading and that won’t be for awhile since he’s missed so much time.

      1. Good point on Hernandez. He won’t make it back to true “prospect” status unless he moves quickly with results. Everything from here on out will be tempered by age versus level and injury history. If he goes wild all year and ends up finishing strong at Clearwater, (or higher, though that seems unlikely), we’ll have to consider his value to the club. For now, he’s a great story to keep an eye on, for sure.

  7. Lakewood scored as many runs in last night’s game as they had in the previous 5 combined. I was close to letting, an out of shape, Larry Greene take some whacks. If you’re going to score 0 or 1 run anyway, let’s punish Larry by sticking him on the team.

  8. The Roof, the Roof, the Roof is on fire!

    Sorry, I couldn’t let Jonathan Roof’s hot weekend go to waste.

    Baby steps for Collier, but another 0-fer for Gillies. It’s early yet, but we are starting to edge closer to a statistically significant number of PAs for both of those guys. Worrying.

      1. There is no fixed number. it varies upon:

        The level of certainty that you want (that the bad numbers are “real”)
        Just how bad the numbers are
        Which metrics we are talking about
        Whether the player is playing at a new level

        I think it’s a while before we get TOO concerned about anyone. That said, Gillies and Collier are both guys who were probably long shots to begin with, so getting off to such very poor starts really puts them behind the 8 ball. Joseph and Asche, OTOH, have a bit more leeway, and they are also off to less horrible starts (aside from Joseph’s PB rate). Some fairly concerning K rates all around, though.

        As for players off to good starts, there is a lot about Hernandez’ start that just screams “regression to the mean upcoming,” BUT I do like the K rate. Some earlier discussions have convinced me that he MIGHT end up being a better prospect than I thought (though I still don’t have a real handle on whether he will be a plus defender, and that will matter a lot). If he can keep his K rate in the neighborhood of 10%, we may have something.

        1. Per past fangraphs article the following are a general guide to offensive statistics stabilizing.

          50 PA: Swing %
          100 PA: Contact Rate
          150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
          200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
          250 PA: Flyball Rate
          300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
          500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
          550 PA: ISO

          They noted batting average didn’t stabilize to 650+ plate appearences.

  9. I think 100 might start to be statistically significant? Although I am not a statistician, so don’t quote me. But you figure a minor league starter will probably get something like 500 plate appearances in a season, so that’s 1/5 of the season. So far Gillies has around 30 and Collier has 40, so as I said, inching towards a significant sample. For Gillies, 2 hits in 30 at bats comes on top of a totally lousy 0-14 performance in the WBC, which prompted Crashburn Alley to write this:

    I hate to always sound so negative on Gillies, I used to be very excited about the guy. My only point is, the “as long as he stays healthy …” school of thought on him is starting to look overly optimistic.

  10. Well whens the last time the Phils had 4 pitchers this good all starting the same day in the minors as we do Tuesday – Pettibone, Biddle, Garner, and Watson.

    1. Pettibone is a good pitcher?

      What is Pettibone like when he’s good? I saw his two televised appearances in spring training and he was awful. He had a solid fastball that looked mid-nineties but was quite straight that he delivered with a little bit of arm side run, but it had no downward plane. That was his only effective offering. I could not even tell what his attempts at secondary pitches were supposed to be.

      I’m baffled as to how Pettibone achieved the ground ball rate he had at Reading in 2012. I saw nothing from him that would generate ground balls. Pettibone does not look like a prospect to me.

      Based on what I saw if Pettibone were brought up and his pitches resembled what he had in Florida his outings would look like Halladay against the Braves.

    1. Apart from guys like Greene who are playing their way into shape and guys who are rehabbing from injury, the only guys likely to move out of XST prior to the start of the Williamsport and GCL seasons are guys needed as injury replacements, which of course is a totally random situation.

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