2013 Minor League Predictions

I was going to avoid writing a prediction piece on the minor league season but the major league season has gotten off to a depressing enough start that I started writing some predictions for the minor league season.  I will limit these to positive predictions as it is the time of year for optimism.

1.  As the big league club struggles and prospects get more attention, Reading, Lehigh Valley, and Lakewood all continue to see attendance boosts and coverage by mainstream media as casual fans learn more about the farm system.

2.  Shane Watson dominates Lo-A hitters with his curveball but the Phillies leave him in Lakewood all year to work on fastball command and building arm strength.

3.  Larry Greene arrive in Lakewood before the end of April.  He doesn’t dominate but the power comes along with a drop in walk rate.

4.  Franco’s homerun numbers suffer in Clearwater, but the scouting reports and stat line have people trying to figure out where Asche goes to make room, especially after Franco is promoted to Reading at the beginning of August.

5.  Carlos Tocci’s stat line is just average in Lakewood but he holds his own enough to make it through the season there.

6.  The Reading team is exciting to watch as Cameron Rupp, Jim Murphy, Sebastian Valle, and Anthony Hewitt use it as a launching pad.

7.  Jose Pujols leads the GCL in homeruns and strikeouts.

8.  Dylan Cozens’ power is not suppressed in Williamsport because he hits the ball so far the park dimensions don’t matter.  He surprisingly steals over 10 bases as well.

9.  Roman Quinn doesn’t steal 100 bases but his 80+ steals put him second only to Delino De Shields in the minor leagues (Billy Hamilton has combined lead after his June promotion).

10.  Yoel Mecias jumps to being a borderline Top 10 prospect in the system (I say borderline because I don’t think much of the current group graduates) as the combination of control and changeup with his mid-90s fastball allow him to dominate hitters.

What does everyone else think well happen this year?  Minor league games start tonight so be ready to scout some box scores listen for every scouting report you can.

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

50 thoughts on “2013 Minor League Predictions

  1. I don’t think Billy Hamilton will get more than a September call-up. The Reds have OF prospects who are arguably ahead of Hamilton and much less raw.

    But that’s not what you’re asking about.

    1. Off Topic: A week ago I though Hamilton was in the minors all year, but with Ludwick injury and Choo’s poor defense in center there is a chance he gets an earlier call.

  2. Asche hits under .300 but has an increase in power.

    Quinn hits 5 homeruns with a .270 avg and 60 steals.

    LGjr hits 15 homeruns

    Ethan Martin struggles with command

    Pettibone is called up to the big leagues. Returned to the minors soon after.

    Adam Morgan called up in a relief role.

    Tocci gets a .250 avg with 30 steals in a full season. Still impresses for his age.

    Tommy Joseph and Franco have a monster year. Joseph starts for the big club next year.

  3. Joseph shows the power with 20+ HR and a .270 + AVG plus improves his handling of pitchers.

    Martin and Morgan take further strides forward muddying the waters for this off season’s move regarding the rotation

    Gillies gets hurt again via bad luck and not the cronic leg issue

    Valle doubles his BB output

    Rupp legitimatly move ahead of Valle with a monster offensive season

    Biddle forces move to AAA after the AS break

    Perkins is this years Asche having a similar rise through the system.

    Franco is in AA after hitting around 10 HR by AS break

    Lakewood provides the most joy of any team in the system by far and we no longer refer to the lack of talent in the system

  4. Mitch Walding reminds us why we were all so high on him when they signed him.

    And Brody Colvin finally puts it together.

  5. I hope this season for at least three players to step forward, a right handed power bat. a starting righthanded pitcher, and a third basemen. think that quinn and watson, will move fast through the system. maybe a double jump this year,{ i can hope cant I???]

  6. 2013 Predictions:

    1. Shane Watson will dominate the SAL, due to advanced breaking ball, and jump to #3 prospect in the ororganization.
    2. Darin Ruf will hit for decent power, but is overall line will fall significantly due to inability to hit AAA pitchers’ steady diet of breaking pitches. Will continue to struggle in LF, and won’t be back on big club until September.
    3. Adam Morgan will be a part of the big league rotation by mid June, due to injury or ineffectiveness of one of the MLB starters.
    4. Roman Quinn will hit 285/375/400, steal 70 bases and become the Phillies #1 prospect.
    5. Larry Greene will go to Lakewood in May, and have a solid, but un-spectacular, year.
    6. Franco will force his way to Reading by Mid-June.
    7. Carlos Tocci will have respectable hitting line, and will steal 30 bases by mid-season at Lakewood.
    8. Kevin Brady will be promoted to Clearwater rotation by mid-season, taking Perci Gardner’s spot in rotation, with Garner going to bullpen.
    9. Franklyn Vargas will be 1st Ext Spring pitcher promoted to Lakewood.
    10.Chris Serritella will become the next ‘Great Hope’, and become the focal point of every other post in the General thread, rivalling Rizzotti and DMitch popularity.

    1. I actually like all of these with the exception of Watson. I think he will hold his own but I don’t see him dominating the SAL.

      and I think we might see Morgan sooner than June. I don’t think Doc makes it out of April without a DL assignment to go down and work on some things. I think Morgan is the first to get the call.

    2. Additional prediction: Tyler Greene is in trouble. He isn’t even in the starting lineup. Angelo Mora was in GCL last year and he has jumped Tyler Greene.

  7. LHV will become the team no one wants to play… until the call ups start… and there will be many.

    Hewitt will lead the Phils minors in Ks and may actually hit double figures in BBs.

    Ryan Howard will be traded + $100M for a shag bag with a busted zipper and a canister of a new favored Skoal Smokeless called Aromatic.

    Ruf will do okay as the new first baseman.

    Cloyd will get at least 8 starts in the big leagues. Pettibone will simmer in LHV.

    Quinn & Tocci will surpass Gose and Garcia as the most prolific duo of base stealers in Phil’s minor league history. The number to beat is 118.

    1. Cloyd will be the first pitcher called up to make a spot start. If it’s a long term deal, the team will turn to Petitbone (like for the inevitable Halladay to the DL for a torn shoulder)

      LHV wins the AAA crown if RAJ decides to keep the team intact and not prematurely start anybody’s service clock. Gillies, Asche, Ruf and Joseph make the all star team.

      Hewitt continues to confound by hitting .240 with reasonable power and an insane K/BB ratio.

      Biddle keeps trucking along and earns a late season AAA callup to help with the Iron Pig stretch run

      Clearwater is pretty much a wasteland but for Franco and Dugan

      Lakewood is the team to watch, Quinn starts to garner the attention of folks like Keith Law and moves his way up the BBA list of top 100 prospects.

      We all complain about how the cheap the Phillies are after the draft

    2. Interesting and possible thought on Ryan Howard getting traded but only if the Phillies are not in the pennant/wildcard race.

      1. I can’t imagine a team that would take that contract and 4 years of a rapidly declining player. He’s around at least 2 more years.

  8. The Phillies will reduce ticket prices so the average working man can go to a game, bring his two sons, buy them a hot dog and not spend $125.

    1. If that is personal experience, use StubHub if they aren’t good, from July of last year I was getting tickets at $2-$4 a piece. Ticket prices won’t drop because of all of the season tickets.

    2. Have you ever tried going down and picking up the standing room only seats? Very affordable way to get into the park and on most nights you can find a couple of seats some where.

  9. Standing room only is tough for the kids and older people, i was really shocked how much tickets are to a ball game..but come june you can do as matt said and use stub hub, they will be giving away tickets, this team looks ready to be a last place team in this division, lack of pitching and clutch hitting,and that isnt just based on the first two games, its been a problem for at least last two season or more.

    1. Really? Because 2 seasons ago this team won 102 games. If you’re gonna trash talk your own team how about you go root for the Mets instead?

    2. I guess you are not an Optimist Club member but seriously if you are going to complain all the time why follow the Phillies?

      1. because they are a horribly run organization. the guy is just speaking the truth. not everyone is as sanguine and delusional as you guys. amaro ruined this team and they are going to struggle to compete until he is replaced and their entire org philosophy changes

        yes, the truth hurts.

  10. dw i just went on stub hub and you can get seats in a great section 116 for cardinal, only 120.00 a ticket. so two tickets with parking is only around 255 for two people. thats a bargain.

  11. Here’s a few predictions myself (LV and Reading since that’s who I follow the most)

    -Ruf will be up around Memorial Day, will have a dozen homers by then at least with solid play in LF
    -Cloyd will be the staff ace and will not get a Sept. callup (possibly traded for a rosin bag)
    -Biddle will be very good in Reading, will up in AAA for a cameo depending how good Reading does
    -Hewitt will hit no higher than .230, but I’m saying 15-20 HRs and 150 K’s
    -Joesph will have a solid year, .260, 12-15 HRs, September callup for sure
    -Rupp will overtake Valle in catching duties, I can see Valle being traded sooner than later
    -Michael Martinez will be released by June or July……hopefully
    -LV bullpen will be best in the IL, Diekman will be first called up
    -Gillies will put together a very solid year, .280+, Sept callup
    -Asche I can see hitting .270-.280, 10-12 HRs, excellent at 3B will be up in Sept for sure

    I pray to god though tonight at LV is not as cold as Tuesday, GO PIGS!

  12. I hate making predictions, I am inevitably wrong, but how about:

    We will spend the month of June arguing about whether Zach Collier’s hot half-season is for real, whether he projects as a starting outfielder or a reserve, and Amaro will put an end to the discussion by trading him at midseason for an overpaid veteran starter (John Lackey?) and cash.

  13. My prediction: Pitcher attempts to intentionally walk Valle, he swings away……

  14. Phillies need to call up two starting pitchers by the AS break. Martin and Morgan pitch decently in the bigs. Phillies well out of contention at deadline and trade Lee. Pettibone comes to bigs and pitches so-so giving up too many HRs. Two minor league relievers in bigs by trade deadline — Stutes and Dieckman.
    Ruiz is traded and Joseph, who has had a very good season, is the new Phillies starting catcher for August and September.
    Ruf hits well in Allentown with the HR parade continuing. He comes up as DH for interleague play and stays up.
    Asche is our Phillies starting 3B by trade deadline. Franco has a good year and finishes season in Reading. Walding mildly encouraging.
    LGJ disappoints again., as does Gueller. Strong seasons from Giles, Quinn, Pullin, Tyler Greene, Cozens, Biddle, Valle, Hernandez, Zack Green..
    Okay seasons from Watson, Altherr, Tocci, Vargas, Mitchell, Seritella, Perkins
    Phillies have their best draft since forever — basically 2008 without missing on the first round pick. Another encouraging Latin America signing season.

    1. “Interleague play” for the Phillies starts tomorrow against the Royals, though there will be no DH. Remember interleague series’ are now spread throughout the schedule.They play at Cleveland at the end of the month.

  15. How about this system as group, and the ability to start getting positional players noticed and return to top 15 system. Tocci Quinn and Franco all keep progressing. Joseph and asche are for real. Don’t sleep on Cesar H at LV.

    1. Although I believe overall system rankings is an overblown topic, the Phillies could vault into the top 15 very easily. The system rankings are driven by ‘high end’ talent. At #16, the Phillies will draft a player that will ‘grade’ as high as Biddle and Quinn the minute his name is called. If they make a good pick, the guy will be ‘graded’ even higher than those 2 players. That pick, along with great progression from Biddle, Quinn, Franco, Watson, Tocci and Pujols will vault the Phiilies’ system into the top 15.

  16. Today i approach the marlins and offer, dom brown, morgan, biddle, joseph, and quinn for stanton, do they bite???

    1. I think that that’s a deal that, at the same time, (a) would be horrible for the Phillies, and (b) wouldn’t be enough to get it done. Even apart from the lack of a top 50 prospect, the Phillies are a bad fit because they have so many holes now & upcoming. They really need those 5 players over the next few years, even if they (collectively) are only roughly average starters/regulars as opposed to stars. (with, yes, more upside than that in some cases,)

      That said, it’s closer to being a realistic deal than most proposed around here. A former highly regarded prospect (maybe) finally coming into his own, and the team’s top 4 current prospects.

  17. today lets go to marlins with a offer, guinn, morgan, joseph, biddle, and dom brown for stanton, will they do it or laugh

    1. They would say no. The objective of the Marlins is to acquire as little talent as possible therefore making this deal highly unlikely

  18. POLL: What will we see more in 2013?
    A. Combined steals between Quinn and Tocci in Lakewood;
    B. Biddle Ks in Reading;
    C. Hewitt Ks in Reading;
    D. Posts suggesting which ridiculous package the Marlins will accept for Stanton.

    I’m going with D, although C won’t be far behind.

  19. Mike Honcho sorry , that we all cant be as brilliant as you. its was my mistake to even suggest anything, we will wait for you next mind blowing great post. and my reason for the players was one dom brown is cheap and maybe the marlins feel he become a nice player, two starters in morgan biddle who are lefthand, cheap and could help, a cost effective owner like marlins have, joseph has a chance to be a really good catcher and quinn is a speedy player, and logic would be that knowing, the marlins, if these guys become good they would, in the long run get a bigger return for stanton, , but thats only my stupid thinking, sorry mike

  20. Asche will hit .300 and HR at the rate of 20/season. His fielding will be very good. He MIGHT be called up in Sept depending on where the Phils are in the standings. Joseph could put up better numbers than .260. Maybe .275 w 14 plus HRs by Sept. He will be called up then or when/if Ruiz is traded.

    Morgan, Martin and P-Bone will contend on who will be called up fist to start. Biddle’s FB improves 2 mph and with a fine season at Reading would be called up to LV maybe in August. The four of them will contend for 2-3 spots in the ’14 rotation. Halladay leaves.

    With the newbies mentioned there will be new life for the team.

    BUT, don’t count the present team out of the playoffs. This has been and will be a second half club. Solidity would be formed for a shot at post season play.

  21. Cloyd isn’t going to be first up. He had a poor ST and is getting clobbered tonight. He is lost or hurt. He needs to either find his pitching rhythm again or get well, but if we needed a starter in Philadelphia tomorrow, it would not be Cloyd.

  22. Any hopes for anyone not names Walding are on hold after a night of horrors .

  23. Cloyd is just a right hand version of swindle. but people will really keep saying he is a option, he is at best,a long man, in a blow out on a bad team. that is the most he can be.

  24. bring cochran off of dl to help struggling lv and/or phils. he has the experience he just needs the chance to prove himself. he did out of the pen for cin reds …. his numbers are good as a starter and in relief. isn’t that why they have these guys….. it’s nice to have young guys at lv but i thought the role of aaa is to provide backup for major league team. phillie has the youngest and most inexperienced aaa team…. who can they call when phils get in trouble… at this point they have no proven help

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