2011 Draft Status Check

I’ve gotten a few emails asking me to go over who is left for the Phillies to sign, which guys I think will sign, etc. I don’t know for sure who is going to sign and how much they will cost. But I will do my best to outline which guys I think are going to sign, which guys won’t, and who is kind of in limbo. The signing deadline is August 15th at midnight, and the Phillies have traditionally left it late on a number of guys. This year proves to be even more interesting, as the draft and the subsequent signing process could look very different at this time next year. So in short, I don’t think anyone knows what to expect. The Phillies could blow things out of the water and sign everyone, or sign only a few. That’s what makes this fun. So check below the fold and we’ll get to it.

First, you can check the updated signing matrix here.

The no doubters

Larry Greene Jr, OF (1S) – Greene will sign, and I expect he will sign for close to slot. I have no idea why its taken so long, but it will get done, so I’m not even wasting more time thinking about it.
Roman Quinn, SS (2) – See above. Quinn took BP at CBP today, it appears to be just about done. No idea why the delay, but it doesn’t really matter.

All signs point to “yes”

Kenny Giles, RHP (7) – Based on what I’ve been told, this is gonna get done. Its not a slam dunk, but both sides should find middle ground. He’s been impressive this summer. I expect it will take $250K or so to sign him. That’s a guess.

I’d say 50/50

Jake Overbey, SS (10) – Despite the comments from Marti Wolever, I think this one actually still has a chance. From what I’ve heard, things didn’t go that well for Overbey’s brother at Ole Miss, and that might impact his willingness to sign. Who knows, maybe he goes to school, but I think they still have a chance here.

Ryan Garvey, OF (15) – We thought he was signed a while ago, but that was bogus. I still think, based on the comments from the elder Garvey, that Ryan does have an interest in signing. I don’t expect it would take crazy money, probably around $300K. Another guess. But I’m hopeful here.

Mitchell Walding, SS (5) – The Phillies normally don’t make a point to flush top 5 round picks down the drain. Last year, they offered Scott Frazier 7 figures, which he turned down, leading them to spread that money around in the later rounds. I think they definitely want Walding, I know they are doing their work on him this summer, and I think there’s a decent shot here.

Jesen Dygestile-Therien, RHP (17) – I think the consensus is that he’s a project, he could take quite a while to develop, but the Phillies like his arm and his projection. I have no idea what kind of bonus it might take, or how he’s pitched this summer, but he seems like the type of guy the Phillies have followed for a while and know what it will take. May depend on how much money is spread elsewhere.

Braden Shull, LHP (27) – Maybe this is more hopeful than anything, but I read something about the Phillies having him in for a workout before the draft, or maybe I’m thinking of someone else. Either way, he fits the bill for what the Phillies love, and they said that they wanted to add LHP if possible in this draft. Shull is probably are most appealing arm outside of Giles.

Not feeling confident

Riley Moore, C (21) – I wish Moore was up in the “all signs point to yes” group, but I just don’t get that sense. He’s a highly rated C prospect with a big college commitment, and I think it would require substantial money to get done. The Phillies may still have it in the budget, and he may be a priority target, but not much has been said about him this summer, which leads me to not be optimistic. I hope I’m proven wrong.

Everyone else

There are a number of prospects that are kind of interesting in the remaining group, but the only guys that stand out are Hayden (36), Ponto (39), and Tomassetti (46), but all seem like good bets to attend college. I have no feel for any of these guys right now. Things could certainly develop in the next few weeks and alter the path. But for now, the above guys are the ones I’ve kind of locked in on.

I hope this answers some of the questions you had.

80 thoughts on “2011 Draft Status Check

  1. It seems like they will have spent very little money if they do Greene, Quinn and then three others. Is that inaccurate?

  2. I dont know much about any of these guys but I get a great feeling for Braden Shull. Id love to see him sign and Id gladly spend the Phillies money to get him in.

  3. Tomassetti is intersting, 15hrs 70rbis 24dbls in a league that last year had Harper team mate Hager(1stround) Gallo Pletch(philly 35 pick). 450 avg threw out 16 of 20 runners See he is committed to UNLV with 2 senior catchers

  4. I’d really like to sign Moore, Garvey and Walding. Shull would also be a welcome addition because the system could use some more LHP.

  5. Does anyone have anything to add to the Garvey situation? It was reported some time ago, in a very subtle way via the father, that Garvey signed with the Phillies. Is he on the fence in some manner about signing or attending school? Surely money cannot be an issue given his family.

    1. According to his Baseball Reference page, Steve Garvey made $7.5 million over the course of his career–i.e. less than Joe Blanton is making for one season as an injured fifth wheel. While $7.5 million is a very nice amount of money, he hasn’t played baseball in more than 20 years, and we don’t know that he still has it. In 1989, he told Sports Illustrated he was broke:

      http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1069161/1/index.htm

      An all too common story when it comes to retired athletes. Point is, while I’m sure his kid had a very nice upbringing, we really can’t say that money is no object for the family. In fact, Steve Garvey knows the business a lot better than most prospects’ fathers, and who knows, maybe that makes him push for a larger rather than a smaller bonus.

      1. If Garvey is putting together a potential ownership group for the Dodgers I would think he has some disposable income.

        1. I didn’t know about that. He’s not the money behind that–Ron Burkle is–but I take your point. Still, we don’t really know about his finances and it’s not impossible that a couple of hundred thousand dollars is a meaningful amount of money to him. He did work for the Dodgers front office for years, before getting fired by McCourt.

          1. Absolutely. He’s not the money, but I wouldn’t think he’d have any credibility as an owner if he were a bankrupt businessman using somone else’s capital to purchase a billion dollar corp.

            1. You took the words right out of my mouth! Also, it wouldn’t be completely unprecedented for a group of wealthy people to find an unsuccessful businessman with a famous name to front a baseball ownership group. I believe that’s how we ended up with the 43rd President of the United States.

  6. PP –
    IIRC, the Phils brought in Shull for a workout while the team was in St. Louis or maybe Chicago. Shull watched Hamels throw a bullpen session and then threw himself while Chollie, Dubee, and others looked on. This occurred a couple weeks after the draft.

    1. As probably the only poster here who has seen Shull pitch and knows some of the circumstances, it might be useful to post some of the details here.
      First, some broader background stuff–beginning with the fact that no other MLB club comes close to the Phillies in the extent, consistency, thoroughness with which they scout Iowa. Last year the Phillies selected three HS kids (including Jon Musser) & a local juco; this year IAT Shull they drafted Matt Hollands and told two more HS kids in the immediate area that the Phillies intended to take them in the lastl 15, 20 rounds & evaluate them further over the summer–but both were grabbed earlier (the logic of this approach by the Phillies is that Iowa is the only state where HS baseball is played in the summer rather than the spring).
      Point is, Phillies scouts are all over the Iowa kids. My guess is that the extensive Phillies
      scouting is nothing new & not unique to Iowa: I chat with scouts whenever I get the chance (HS, Futures, Big Ten) & many of them are gregarious and love to talk to fans–at least as long as it doesn’t distract from the game itself. And invariably they say that Phillies scouts are everywhere they go.

      Secondly, the Shulls live in a very unusual community–very different from Grant Wood’s Iowa to understate it. The tone is set by Maharashi University, and meditation is the primary vocation of most of the residents–one of the first things that strike you is that they build or remodel their homes to face East. It is a prosperous & very highly educated community, with life centering around book stores & coffee houses, organic foods & homeopathehic medicine.. The Shulls apparently live very comfortably with this life style. There is no doubt about one priority of the family: college is mandatory for the kids, a preface to serious graduate or professional school.

      Third factor is that Braden Shull is not & never has been a HS star athlete. He spent his
      years as a “supporting player” to some of the most celebrated prep athletes in the state.
      Teammates who are playing in the Big 12, PAC 10 & Big Ten. In his own senior class the highly publicized kids were a WR & a TE who signed with Iowa State & Iowa. Indeed, Braden isn’t even the star athletle is his own family: that is younger sister Taylor who is pursue by major hoops programs like Stanford & Notre Dame (she committed early in her Junior year to Wisconsin, but has reopened recruiting as the big name programs flock to Mount Pleasant to woo her). I had hoped to chat with her about her brother at one of the GameTime League games (GTL is a summer league where Iowa, Northern Iowa, Drake, Kirkwood Juco, Indian Hills juco, send their players for tough summer competition, along with two, three top prospect HS girls on each team)–but lately the top women’s prospects sit out or miss most games in the GTL because of the more extensive scheduling & touring of AAU teams (Taylor plays for Iowa Attack, a very good AAU team successful in national competition).

      As for Braden himself, he has a partial scholarship (part of an overall financially solid financial aid package) at Kansas State. And the identity of the school is probably the only opening the Phillies have for a chance to sign him. The scuttlebutt is that he chose K-State because of its baseball program, while his family want(ed) him to choose a more academically prestigious university (they almost certainly would be happier if it was the nearby U of Iowa, which has the only Division 1 baseball program in the state). If money was not a factor, the indications are that he would be headed for Northwestern (he–and sis–are strong students with good board scores, GPAs).

      The size of the signing bonus to get Shull to the Phillies most likely will not be the determining factor: rather, it will be the terms the Phillies are willing to offer in helping to pay college costs in off-season & post-playing years. IF–a huge, huge IF–the Phillies are willing to underwrite the costs of a degree from Northwestern IMO there is no doubt that would get the job done. But four years at Northwestern costs a quarter of a million dollars; add that to a $150,000 bonus and the figure climbs to over $400,000.

      That Shull is worth that kind of money–or that the Phillies could not/cannot find a better alternative investment–both seem highly doubtful to me. From on the scene itself, there is not that much you see that is likely to impress anyone. The kid is definitely a pro prospect–but even without his strong college commitment it is hard to envision his stuff as worth a top five round draft choice.

      Because there are so very few HS pitchers taken in the “serious” rounds of the draft in 2011 (the first 15 selections or so) it seems a natural reaction for Phillies fans to zero in on Shull & the Canadian kid….because that’s all there is. Fans tend to think of the draft as the only source of new talent to replenish the farm system…and Phillies fans continue to be unaware of or to undervalue the growing number of Latin American players arriving from the academies in the DR & Venezuela (from three or four a few years ago, the numbers the past several years have ranged from 12 to 15, and have been a principal reason for championship teams in the GCL and at Lakewood).

      1. Sorry, Tiggerhawk, but Braden and Taylor are distant cousins, not brother and sister. Secondly, Braden and family do not live in Fairfield, Ia. I am not sure where you are finding your info, but sorry sir or maam you are not correct on those issues. As well as other issues. I would think that posting this kind of info you would take a little time and get your facts straight.

        1. You mean I just read that entire post for no effing reason?!?! Curses… back to work for me.

        2. Good thing this is Iowa and not Kentucky, or we’d have an argument on our hands about the nuanced differences between siblings vs distant cousins vs spouses….

        3. Yes, I know better. Absolutely, totally brain-dead. All I can say is it was much too late, but I really do know the difference between Fairfield & Mount Pleasant–though they are very similar towns, both frequently named to various best small town lists. We even went to the Clear Creek-Amana opening football game last fall In Mount Pleasant–the two schools have strong softball & baseball programs, play each other often though they are in different conferences. The expectation was that they would meet in the State 3-A tournament this month, but Mt Pleasant got eliminated at the outset in a district tournament losss to Washington.

          I apologize for the error on the relationship of Taylor & Braden Shull. I picked up that erroneous information from fan discussions (she is the subject of much debate here, as many women’s hoop fans would like to see Hawkeye coach Bluder offer her), and should have known better than to repeat it without checking it out.

          My blunders on these points do not alter the validity of the salient facts I brought up. e.g., Braden Shull was not a star athlete, center of attention in high school. He is a very good student, whose parents want him to put college his first priority. He is a good pro prospect, but he hasn’t gotten (and isn’t getting) rave reviews–and I was trying gently to get across the truth that he hasn’t demonstrated the kind of “high ceiling” that so many Phillies fans have assumed. He is headed for college, and the Phillies are not going to throw alot of over-slot cash his way.

      2. No, tiggerhawk, you are not the only one to post on here that has seen Braden pitch. Seen him pitch in Iowa and also in Florida when he pitched for the Wood Bat Assoc. The scouts all know what they are doing . Braden does not live in Fairfield, he has no sister. I could say more about what you have written that is not right, but then I really don’t think it is anyone’s business. You really owe the family an opology as well as to take this post off here. I feel the post you made to be a hateful one, I am really sorry you feel the need to hurt people.

        1. Anyone who takes that much time and effort to make all that up seriously needs help…

        2. There was absolutely nothing hateful about that post, unless it’s hateful to say that you don’t think a guy is very talented.

          Please, it’s one guy’s opinion about a prospect. Let’s save the word “hateful” for things that truly are truly hateful, like slurs and threats. Not one man’s opinion that a prospect isn’t very good.

          1. Amen. I mean, the mistakes undermine his credibility in a big way, but there was nothing hateful about what he had to say.

      3. All of your so called “background” information on Braden Shull couldn’t be more incorrect..

  7. I believe there was an article with a quote from Ponto saying that he was going to college in the fall (St. Joe’s, IIRC).

  8. If they don’t sign another catcher, they will be short this year. Neither catcher they have playing can hit and they don’t seem to be outstanding behind the plate. I hope they get Tomasetti, he sounds as if he could develop into a good player. Valle is it so far if we are looking at a major league player. Diaz and Rupp have not shown enough. A lefty pitcher would also help. That would be Shull.

    1. From the box scores, it seems Rupp is coming on strong. I was down on him after a bad start but now he’s at least shown life.

    1. Any word on Quinn signing as I can’t believe that he would fly up to Philadelphia without the sides being close.

  9. Jake Overbey
    http://mississippi.scout.com/2/1085710.html
    Overbey said he talks to the Phillies fairly often. There has been some progress between him and the Phillies.

    Jake Overbey doesn’t have a dollar figure he’s looking for from the Phillies necessarily. But he clearly has a pretty good perspective on things. But Overbey said he doesn’t feel it will take that long for him to have a resolution. “I really have no idea, but I don’t think it will,” he said of waiting until the Aug. 15 deadline.

    There has been some progress between him and the Phillies. “I would say we’re starting to get on the same page of where we both are,” Overbey said. “That doesn’t mean we’ve got an agreement. We’re just trying to make sure we’re on the same page as to what I want and what they want to give me.”

    I think they get it done….

  10. Roman Quinn
    http://www.centredaily.com/2011/07/26/2858642_phillies-hopeful-of-signing-draft.html
    He was an under-sized 18-year-old kid taking batting practice with a bunch of major-leaguers, but Roman Quinn’s smile was permanent on Tuesday. His father donned a red Phillies hat and watched with team officials as Quinn pretended to be a pro.

    Ruben Amaro Jr. passed through the dugout, saw his second-round pick dressed as a Phillie, and laughed. “It looks good on you, doesn’t it?” Amaro said.

    This was a showcase day because Quinn is not yet a member of the Phillies. The team rolled out the red carpet with hopes of making a final push toward a contract. Both of the team’s top two selections from the June draft – Larry Greene and Quinn – remain unsigned. The deadline for agreements is Aug. 15.

    The Phillies are confident both will sign.

        1. I’m the most disappointed on Garvey if he doesn’t sign. Of the remaining guys, he is probably the one that I’d like to see most. The Phillies don’t really have a righthanded power bat in the system. Plus, with the way Singleton is mentioned in trade talk, it would be nice to add another young power bat.

  11. Mitchell Walding
    http://www.oursportscentral.com/services/releases/?id=4256224
    Walding was a fifth-round pick out of St. Mary’s High in Stockton, Calif., by the Phillies. Flamion, who went to Central Catholic High in Modesto, Calif., entered the year as one of the top high school bats, but got a slow start out of the gate after football season and fell to the Astros in the 25th round. O’Neil was a 33rd-round pick by the Yankees out of Southridge High in Kennewick, Wash.

    “I’ve been mainly working on hitting the ball the other way and then keeping my shoulders closed defensively,” Walding said. “So far, I think I’ve been getting to a lot more balls deeper in the hole.”

    While all three players said they are working on adjusting to hitting with wood bats, facing better pitching and dealing with the grind of playing nearly every day.

    Why do they need to adjust to hit with wood bat and get ready to play every day?

    1. Exactly Nails—–no need to work with lumber daily unless intentions are to go professional.

      1. Right, thats his point. In HS and College they don’t use wood or play daily. So if he is attempting to adjust to that, then it clearly indicates his intentions to sign with the Phillies.

      2. And most college level summer leagues are wood bat leagues these days. It is an adjustment and has the added bonus of letting the Phillies see him in a wood bat league.

  12. Ran some numbers to give us maybe some idea of how much money the Phillies have already spent on signings so far:

    Reported bonuses:
    Harold Martinez – $387,000
    Adam Morgan – $250,000
    Cody Asche – $168,300
    Austin Wright – $125,000
    Logan Moore – $100,000
    Tyler Greene – $375,000
    Total: $1,405,300

    Add in Larry Greene and Roman Quinn at above-slot (from last year) numbers:
    Larry Greene: $900,000 (vs. $844,200 slot for #39 in 2010)
    Roman Quinn: $600,000 (vs. $555,000 bonus for #66 in 2010)
    Total: $2,905,300

    For the 13 seniors, 2 juniors, 1 high schooler, and 1 community college player whose bonuses are not in PP’s list, I used $100,000 per junior and CC player, $10,000 per senior, and $150,000 for HS (Rios).
    Total: $3,485,300

    Using the bonus estimates in the previous draft recaps, the 2010 draft spend was in the $4-5 million neighborhood, and 2008 was $6.5-7.5 million. So we should be in for at least another million in overslot signings after Larry Greene and Roman Quinn are in the fold, so I would expect that we get at least 3 more guys on the list (Giles for sure) and possibly even more if the Phillies decide to go for it in the last draft before hard slotting may be implemented.

      1. The Rangers better hope that these kids work out or they wasted their money at the casino table.

  13. Why has Giles been impressive this summer? I haven’t followed and would love any data under this exciting assessment.

    1. I had a report that he was consistently sitting 94-97 as a starter.

      His fastball is a plus pitch, with a chance to be a plus plus pitch if his command improves.

    1. You’re kidding, right. You think DiCharry is more talented than Greene, Quinn, Moore, Giles, Walding, Shull? Not even close.

        1. He’s not committed to Texas. He’s on Texas. He was rated higher than any of the guys GK mentioned, coming out of HS.

  14. James, If they don’t sign Riley Moore, do you think Zach Wright, the Junior catcher from East Carolina, will be signed? He was a #6 draft choice but the write-ups I’ve read have been luke warm. He played in the Cape Cod League last year. Do you know where he’s playing or if he’s playing summer ball this year?

      1. ECU source basically confirmed the same thing about Wright. I have reason to believe that they can get Moore done if they want to get it done.

      2. Was there a reason why the Phillies just walked away from a 6th round pick like this? Were initial negotiations particularly acrimonious?

        1. I won’t ask James to confirm or deny, but I thought I saw a mention somewhere that there was an issue with an MRI or with Wright somehow not passing the physical. I did read the quote from Woelver where he basically said the Phils walked away.

  15. People will keep asking that question. I don’t really want to post the reason. Lets just say the Phillies reviewed everything and determined to go in a different direction. Fair enough?

    1. Oh my bad, sorry if I missed that posting earlier.

      It just seems fishy since last year they lost a 5th in Frazier, and then got screwed over by Hinson (13 rd) and his father post-draft – something doesn’t sit right that the Phils are walking away from a 6th round pick. Especially a C in an organization desperately in need of solid C prospects.

    2. Well thank you for posting that again as it is the first time I have heard that (although undoubtedly not the first time you’ve posted it, from the sounds of it.)

  16. BA Chat. I asked the following:

    Joe (DE): Is anyone else surprised that all it took to sign Tyler Greene was 375? Had that number been known would he have dropped to the 11th round?

    Jim Callis: I was a little surprised. At the same time, while he has an impressive array of shortstops, he was so inconsistent offensively and defensively on the showcase circuit and as a high school senior, so I don’t think teams knew exactly what to make of him. Not surprised at all that it was the Phillies who popped him. Definitely worth a $375,000 investment.

    1. By, “impressive array of shortstops” I’m assuming he meant, “impressive array of [tools]”.

      1. A bit of a bummer, but of the trio of Walding, Overbey and Greene, Overbey was last in my list of preferences.

  17. Heard through the coaching vine that Giles had another successful outing. He closed out a game and struck out the side. 94-98 mph. Throwing change for strikes and slider continues to improve.Splitty that is nasty that he pulls out of pocket at will.That make a total of 37ks in 15 innings during summer. Impressive!

    1. Thanks Jd. I hit this site every couple hours for just this sort of gold. If there’s any more info out there on this guy, please keep posting it. I am intrigued!!!

  18. I hope the proposed Phillies trade will spur some more money being allocated to sign more draft picks.

    1. I’m with you. If we’re only going to use our draft picks anymore as chips in future trades, we should be allocating Red Sox style money to the draft ($6 million+ per year). Then losing 2- 4 guys a season wouldn’t be such an absolute drain on the system.

  19. Now that the Trade Deadline Frenzy is over; have the Phillies signed more draft picks to replace Singleton and Cosart?

  20. Great report received on IA 6’6 LHP Shull over the weekend, Pitched in the Iowa Valley League State Championship this is a semi pro league/college league. He pitched a complete game with 7IP 1 run allowed on 4 hits and had 12 K’s. Sat 87-91 according to phillies gun. We have to sign this kid!

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