93 thoughts on “Box Score Recap, 13 June 2011

  1. I asked this in the Clearwater post, but got no response, so I ask it again here: Where’s Valle? Anybody know anything?

  2. 3. OF – Jon Singleton (Clearwater)- (.251) –0 for 4 with a BB, RBI (21) and 3 K’s
    4. RHP – Jared Cosart (Clearwater) – (6-3, 2.83) – 4.2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 2 ER, 2 BB and 5 K’s
    8. RHP – Vance Worley (Lehigh Valley) – (4-2, 2.62) – 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB and 6 K’s
    12. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (Clearwater) – (.234) 3 for 5 with 2 runs
    13. OF – Domingo Santana (Lakewood) – (.268) 0 for 4
    17. C – Cameron Rupp (Lakewood) – (.221) – 0 for 1 with a BB
    18. OF – Jiwan James (Clearwater) – (.251) – 1 for 6 with 3 K’s
    21. RHP – Colby Shreve (Lakewood) – (3-3, 3.89) – 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB and 0 K’s
    23. RHP – Michael Schwimer (Lehigh Valley) – (3-0, 1.45, 1 SV) – 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB and 0 K’s
    26. OF – Leandro Castro (Clearwater) – (.275) – 2 for 6 with a 2B 11), 2 RBI (25) and a K

    Others:

    3B – Geancarlo Mendez (Lakewood) – (.267) 1 for 4
    3B – Travis Mattair (Lakewood) – (.188) – 0 for 4 with 2 K’s
    OF – John Mayberry (Lehigh Valley) – (.286) – 1 for 4 with a BB
    OF – Joe Savery (Clearwater) –(.305) – 0 for 4 with a BB and 3 K’s
    OF – Zach Collier (Lakewood) – (.267) – 2 for 2 with a 2B (12), run, RBI (14), BB and SB (20)
    LHP – Mike Zagurski (Lehigh Valley) – (2-0, 1.86, 10 SV) – 1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB and 2 K’s
    RHP – Justin Friend (Clearwater) – (1-3, 1.57, 19 SV) – 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB and a K (loss)
    RHP – Eric Pettis (Clearwater – (1-1, 0.82) – 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB and 3 K’s

  3. This was meant for the Clearwater thread, but kept writing until there was a new post…so here is goes:
    (DISCLAIMER – it does NOT matter, at all, who is #1 or #2, this is purely an argument for argument’s sake)

    When I asserted a couple weeks ago, that Valle might’ve passed Singleton as the club’s best position prospect, it was a relative comparison:

    1) most valuable vs least valuable position
    2) same level/team (Valle is a year older, but he’s also from Mexico, not California. age is on both their sides)
    3) above-average D, managing (perhaps) the best staff in the minors vs unsuccessful move to left field
    4) 144 OPS jump vs 167 OPS decline in 2011
    5) Valle’s absurd 2 walks messes up his K/BB, but he still has fewer strikeouts and a 20% K rate to Singleton’s 30%.
    6) .146 vs .086 ISO…and Valle’s 2011 ISO is down from career norms due to his low HR total.
    7) You could/will argue that Valle’s .434 BABIP is unsustainable, but what about Singleton’s .361? I can’t find LD% but at least Valle’s XBH show he’s hitting the ball hard.

    Hopefully Singleton will continue to improve and demonstrate why he’s considered our top position prospect, but we shouldn’t dismiss Valle’s progress. Everyone loves Carlos Ruiz’s plate discipline and OBP, but Ruiz walked 10 times as a 22 year old in Lakewood and 18 times as a 23 year old in Clearwater. In 2010, as a 19/20 year old in Lakewood, Valle walked 28 times. (disclaimer- Ruiz had fewer PAs, BUT Valle’s walk rate was still higher) Valle and Singleton are very, very young and have a long way to go in terms of their respective developments. Valle needs to become more patient and Singleton needs to make more consistent contact, and honestly they both need to hit more balls out of the yard, but we really have no idea what the organization is telling them to concentrate on right now.

    …but again, raises the question- where is Valle? anyone hear anything?

    1. The simplest answer is that rating players is more than a one year project. You have to take their entire careers into account, and 200 plate appearances doesn’t change everything.

    2. Baxter –

      First, I read earlier in the comments thread that Valle was DL’ed (disabled list, not downloaded – I don’t believe he’s a Cylon. Of course, if he is, that might explain why Jim Callis likes him)

      Second, I know you disclaimed that this discussion is pretty academic, and you make some very valid points. I’d say it’s pretty close between Valle and Singleton as to who is a more valuable prospect at this point. Given that high value placed on BB%, I’d have to say that Singleton might get the edge – I still think (hope?) that Valle’s ridiculously low BB% is an anomaly, whereas Singleton has slightly upped his BB% from last year, despite scuffling a bit.

      Of course, the fact that Valle is a catcher is huge too. It’s an argument that we could go in circles on, which is a nice problem to have in a Minor League System.

      – Jeff

      1. Oh man, nerd alert!

        Just fracking with you. I’d be interested in an comprehensive breakdown of the Phillies prospects as BSG characters.

      1. I agree. He’s having a really nice year – if he were dominating, I’d consider it. Let him continue to develop, especially since he is still age appropriate. I’m glad he’s back on the prospect radar, since he looked really good in the GCL back in 2008

        – Jeff

  4. Collier getting it together, finally, is good to see. He was hyped by lots of scouts when chosen but has lost two full seasons to physical problems. At draft time his level swing and speed on the bases and in the outfield were keys to his expected success. Note his SBs which verify his on bases speed. His swing is producing a better BA and he recognizes the value of walks. So far he seems likely to be a good hitter with speed to sit toward the top of the lineup lacking the power–so far–to bat lower in the lineup.

    It would be a pleasure to see him progress toward being the player envisioned at draft time. Only I wish that we could find more righty power hitters for the outfield and/or 3rd base.. Right now, Santana is also beginning to work toward more contact with obvious power tools. At age 18 with several seasons in pro ball, he threatens to break out in the next season or two. A righty 3rd baseman with power is high on my list for the sake of a more balanced lineup since Brown, Utley and Howard are likely to represent lefty hitters with power with no righty power to be found.

    The recent draft might produce a SS and 3rd baseman to add to the right side of the lineup. Happy that the concentration was there.

    1. I’m still hopeful there is power coming. He’s coming off of a serious wrist injury which will effect his power. Very pleased with the OBP and SB’s.

  5. Up to Clrwtr? I’d say : not yet. Let him build his proficiency and improve his numbers and confidence at Lkwd.

    Should he do that and show that he is ready for Clwtr later in the season, YES. Though he is out of his teens, he’s still young enough to not rush him. Success does breed success and a move up. The season is about 40% over; the other 60% is enough time to show his ability to move up.

  6. Ducky…Valle on DL as he took a foul ball off his wrist. Hernandez with 3 hits tonight. Looks like he is finally comfortable at high A. Cosart with a little bit of a struggle but not a shock since he last pitched 5/31. Agree with taking time on Collier. Let him get his at bats at Lakewood. He has some good outfielders ahead of him already in Clearwater (James, Castro, and Gillies).

  7. Because of his age for the level he’s at, the defense he plays at the position he does, and his improved offense this season, might Galvis move into our top 5 or 10 prospect list? Starting to see a future infield (2013) with Galvis at SS and Rollins at 3B.

    Kratz up to 293. Cesar up to 235.

      1. 700 OPS as a 21 year old in AA is pretty good for a SS. At this point, he’s easily in my top 20, though I’m not sure where everything shakes out.

        1. It’s great that he has a .712 Ops and 6 Hr’s this year, but look, it’s his… wait for it…. wait for it, THIRD time at this level. It’s improvement, but I’m just not ready to annoint him the chosen one. A promotion to AAA and BETTER numbers over 100 at bats there might convince me otherwise.

          1. How often a level is repeated doesn’t seem as important as the age at which a level is mastered. Not that a .712 ops is mastery per se, but as a 21 year old, + defensive SS at AA, it means he is a real prospect and back on the radar as a future starter. I particularly like the vastly improved ISO and the more incrementally improved BB/PA and BB/K rates.

          2. For context, I believe that right now, he has the 4th highest OPS for a SS in the eastern league, with the three others ahead of him two, three and four years older than him.

            And calling it his third time at this level is disingenuous. He barely spent any time at Reading in 2009. In any case, he’s still very young for the league and pointing to the fact that he’s repeating a level just emphasizes the unorthodox way in which the Phillies have handled Galvis as a prospect.

          3. And he’s still 21 years old AKA age appropriate for the level.

            And lets be real he played 1 & 1/4 seasons in AA before this year.

            herp derp

      2. I’m curious why you think so. I was a skeptic, but no more. He appears to be an entirely different hitter. ISO almost doubled to a quite respectable .142. BB% up, K% down, not by a lot in either case, but neither is bad & he is heading in the right direction. I can’t find his LD%, but since he is hitting the ball so much harder I would think he’s likely improved there as well. Overall is just a tad below average for an Eastern league player, pretty encouraging for a 21 year old defensive whiz SS.

        Is he a sure thing? No. Is he major league ready? No. But then how many of our prospects are? Among our position players, I suspect that if you consider only age/level/position/defensive performance/hitting performance on this year’s performance only, he might be the top position player in the system. I don’t rate him that highly – sample size, scouting, prior performance all come into play – but I would put him the overall top 15 in the organization as of today, with a 50% chance of playing regularly in the majors at some point.

        1. Ok, here’s my thing, name one offensive catigory he rates over a 50 on a scouting scale?

          Your choices are:

          Running Speed
          Hit for Average
          HIt for Power

          I’d rate him RS = 50 (not over, because as he ages, his minimal steals will decrease), Ave = 35 and power = 35. At the major league level he’ll probably never steal more then 15 bases (which i’m calling average), never bat more then .270 and never hit more then 10-12 Hr’s. Until I believe otherwise, even as a SS, a contending team has to do better at that position. He’s your prototypical number 8 hitter but without any ability to turn the line-up over (can’t walk). As I said above, if he gets his OPS up in the 800’s in his FIRST (and that is key, no repeating 3 years in a row) 100-400 AB’s I might feel differently.

          I still think he has value, just not on the phillies, ever.

          1. He’s supposed to be ++ defensively. That has real value if the offensive production approaches league average for a SS. If he hits .270/.330/.380 with ++ defense, that is a positive contributor. It isn’t a star, but you don’t need a star at every position.

            1. Of course, but what I’m saying is, that would be his career best most optimistic year. In reality, his career average would be closer to .245/.290/.330… In a career year he’s suitable, but every other, he’s not.

            2. Except that you are projecting his career numbers for years that he was significantly younger than his competition. Extrapolating future performance based on a 21 year old in AA with a .712 OPS is probably a far rosier picture than .245/.290/.345.

              The one saving grace for Galvis through the years was his age gap. Furthermore, he is improving in exactly the right areas to give us reason to believe this improvement is real and sustainable.

          2. I’ve been as big a critic of Galvis as anyone but I’m also turning the corner as to his value as a prospect. I’m certainly not ready to annoint him as the heir apparent at SS but he’s gone from a non-prospect to a guy to follow with his numbers this year.

            What I don’t get is the point about his need to produce high OPS numbers immediately upon reaching a particular level. If he moves to AAA at the age of 22 and only matches his .712 OPS does that tell us anything?

            Chances are that Galvis will never be an offensive force but if(big if) he can be league average at SS with Plus defensive he is certainly an everyday player the Phillies can use. At a league minimum salary, he would give them options to spend for offensive production elsewhere.

            1. I guess the big sticking point here is I don’t believe he’ll achieve league average over his career, even just considering short stops. The phillies have a 170 million dollar payroll, good for second best in MLB… I just can’t fathom having such a poor player (given that payroll) playing in the starting 8.

          3. You seem to have unrealistic expectations for a SS prospect. There isn’t a SS in the Eastern League that has an OPS over 800. To expect Galvis to have done that at 19/20 is a little absurd.

            1. If this was his first year in the EL i’d agree, even if it was his second, but come on, his 3rd year and you’re compairing him to prospects who are likely in their first year in the EL?

              PP made a point a while back about how there isn’t much value in league average, even if you’re young for the league (this was on his “fun” prospect ranking system)… I argued that he was wrong at the time and that if you were extremely young for your league, even with only league average results, you should get plenty of extra praise. But this is an exception, 3 tries at the same league SHOULD produce ABOVE average results.

      3. Overrated implies that people here are rating him far above what he is actually worth. However, he did not make PP’s Top 30. I don’t know where he ended up in the Reader Top 30, but I think it was in the late teens or early 20s. This for a plus defender, who is three years younger than league average, yet has an OPS exactly in line with league average. Being much younger than your opponents but hitting just as well as them is a sign that you are better than they are. Then if you have a plus tool on top of that, you become a top prospect. His plus tool happens to be defense at the most valuable defensive position there is. This guy has spent so much time being underrated that I’m not sure it is possible for him to be overrated.

        All that said, he has a long way to go at the plate. I do not have any delusions that he can be an All-Star SS. The stats say he is not a great hitter, and scouts say he is not a great hitter. However, all he needs to be is average (or even below) to be a valuable major leaguer.

        1. Your points are well made, i’m just not ready to jump on board yet. At this point I’m almost hoping he gets traded at the deadline just so we don’t have to talk about it for the next 2 years (as we have the last year or two)…

          1. Because we have so many middle infield prospects at AAA and AA to hold on to and feel good about…

  8. I guess Gillies was not in the lineup today because they do not want him to put his legs under too much stress. Having him back just adds another piece to an already flourishing farm system.

  9. Who is this Herlis Rodriquez guy in the VSL? He turned 17 last Friday. In 4 games, the 6′ lefty CF’er is hitting .389 (7 /18) with a triple and a HR. He has to learn to steal a base though. He’s 0 – 4 in steals and was picked off twice in yesterday’s game. He’s a guy worth keeping an eye on (but not for his base running skills).

    Another pair of 17 year olds, Jair Morelos & Wilson Garcia are hitting very well. Jair’s a SS hitting .333 in 23 games and leads the team in RBIs with 13. He bats left. He also has 9 Es. Wilson is a switch-hitting catcher batting .318 in 20 games.

    You gotta love the youth up the middle.

  10. How about a shout out to phormer Phuture Phillie Carlos Carrasco? He shut down the Yankees yesterday and hasn’t given up a run in over 15 innings. Congrats Carlos, I knew you’d eventually have the success that so many of us on this board were sure would happen. The Cliff Lee trade from the Indians was a win – win. But if Aumont, Ramirez and/or Gillies hit it big, the scale shifts in the Phillies favor… big time.

    1. I had the same thought about CC. It’s funny how many were ready to give up on him a couple of years ago (6-9 with a 5.18 ERA in AAA). He’s only 24! Only two months older than Derrick Mitchell (not a dig against Mitchell – I’m very happy he’s having such a strong June – just making a point).

    2. Man he was good last night. Bases loaded nobody out in Yankees stadium and got Arod, Cano, and Swisher to strand them.

    3. His fastball has a lot of life, and that change up is filthy at times.

      Looking very good so far, his FIP/xFIP are both in the mid 3’s.

  11. Sorry for the multiple posts in a row but I saw this Austin Hyatt article on Philly.com. My favorite line is:

    “Favorite sports movie: “Major League.” “Watching it when you’re younger, you think it’s really like that. Then you get into pro ball and it’s not exactly like that.” Says “Bull Durham” is closer to reality, but it’s not “spot on.”

    I want to know if he’s breathing through the right eyelid?

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110614_Five_minutes_with_Austin_Hyatt____.html

  12. Hewitt is also MIA, but I suspect it’s more along the lines for him to clear his head. I was in Lakewood last weekend and caught the part of doubleheader vs the West Virginia Power and Hewitt was terrible. He barely made any contact that day, swung at just about everything, and kept jerking his head ala Pat Burrell.

    I just wonder how much more time the organization’s going to give him

  13. There are preliminary rosters up for WPT and GCL. I know that they are preliminary and probably wrong, but still it is impossible not to comment on them (and I’m sure other posters will have much more to say about them than I). My two observations: 1) Who is Luis Amaro? He’s 22 and on the WPT roster in the OF. Good luck to him in getting ABs ahead of Dugan, Hudson, and Altherr. 2) Nesseth is listed on the GCL roster, which surprises me. He is 4.5 years older than the next guy on the roster alphabetically, Miguel Nunez (my sleeper). However, they are almost exactly the same size (6’5″ vs. 6’6″; 210 vs. 215).

    WPT: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ros&cid=449&stn=true&sid=t449
    GCL: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ros&cid=469

    1. What preliminary rosters. Those are the same offseason rosters that have been up nearly the entire offseason. Not accurate. Contains released players.

      Luis Amaro is from Miami and was signed in the early offseason. Apparently they kept through the entire XST, so who knows if he gets playing time. And you can say the same about various College veteran draftees.

  14. I think Luis is actually Ruben’s half-brother, or something like that. The Williamsport roster should be up within the next couple days.

    1. Next couple of days, wel the next couple of days will take you to almost Friday, which is the start of the season, which is when alot of the Phillies rosters come out. The Williamsport team has scheduled a Meet the Players event for tomorrow (Wednesday) so maybe they will reveal it then on the Williamsport website, or else they will have their fans meet cardboard cut-outs. The opponent on the 17th (Friday-opening day) the Pirates (State College Spikes) has already released a 25 man new roster as of yesterday afternoon. So it looks like the Philly outfit lags behind in the dissemination of information, just like the signing of draft picks. The Phillies website lists exactly zero players signed, and perhaps Matt Gelb has only partially conveyed the right information, regarding the signings to date, as I see from some things seen before that Asche and Kinder should be included , I believe, and possibly a couple more also.

      1. Hey Marfis–Looks like your guy Joel Naughton has been released. Pretty sure u annointed him the next Johnny Bench right around the same time you had Ozzie Chavez and JJ Furmaniak making up the middle of the Phils infield.

        1. I never predicted any of that. Naughton looked like he could hit well for a catcher and when given playing time he did well enough. Numbers I seem to recall from today’s release was still at an over .260 career average. And Naughton was released from the Clearwater Disabled List. Maybe he is permanently injured and got an injury settlement. Don’t know that, people not good at disseminating news about the organization.
          As to the 2 Infielders, they were suggested for a reserve role during the lead up to the 2009 World Series.
          They could fill bench roles , thus giving more playing time to the MLB reserves, such as Bruntlett, and thereby give more rest to the regulars, like Utley,Rollins, etc. If the organization would have read that and followed it, Utley and Rolins might not have the injury problems they have today.

          1. I can pull up your exact quotes if you are interested, however I dont see you as the type that would ever admit you were wrong or mis judged anything.

          2. You are comedic relief. If the Phillies would have followed your suggestion and brought Ozzie CHavez and JJ Jurmaniak to the major league Rollins and Utley “might not have the injury problems they have today”. Apparantly the other 29 organizations missed the boat as well.

            1. I had Ozzie and JJ as the 2 minor leaguers at the time who could fill a reserve role and give more playing time to the MLB bench players and thereby strategically rest the MLB guys (Utley, Rollins, etc.). I believe that the 2 straight years of World Series appearances , and hard play with less time off in offseason contributed to residual effects still present.

              As to your generous offer to pull up the exact quotes of every prediction I made on here. Display them all, see the percentage of those that have come to pass, and let the people decide who is the most astute indicator r of possible future events , using real stats to foresee possible real events, and a keen eye despite limited observations of physical traits and attributes for other projections of likely possible outcomes.
              To aid in your search , I recall my first prediction was that Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer would NOT be offered arbitration after the 2008 season , going on through Pete Orr as a candidate for this season’s MLB roster rather than a AAA bench candidate, to the most recent the call of a likely call up of Brian Gordon to the MLB.. See , there are so many even I can’t recall them all , so your generous offer to post them at the top of the page would be a great service. Then let the people decide who is astute.

        2. What a shame! I liked him he is a good kid but has definitely been the odd man out this year. He could hit when he was able to stay healthy which unfortunately has not been often the last couple of years.

      2. Yep, the Cutters are getting bused in tonight, and the meet the team event tomorrow night will be when most people have a chance to see the names and faces. I’ll be there if anyone on the board wants to say hi.

  15. I really hesitated before posting that, it appears with good reason. Sorry for starting a totally worthless conversation.

  16. is nesserth a legit prospect??? if not why take a space up at williamsport ,why not a young kid who is a propect.reason is he is 4.5 years older someone wrote if true no reason imo for him to take up a roster spot there.

    1. Yes. Threw in the mid-90s in college but had Tommy John right before the Phillies drafted him. Would have been in the top 10 rounds if not for the surgery, potentially a little higher. Probably will only get limited relief innings this year but he could move pretty quickly next year all the way up to Clearwater if he does well and they keep him in relief.

      1. There was a good article about him on Philly.com, but I couldn’t find it. I know it was linked into discussion on this site as well. On top of what Andy B said, it says he’s trying to mimic Halladay … and Ruiz was quoted as saying his stuff was pretty impressive (Ruiz caught him during his rehab in XST.)

        1. That article stuck out for me also. Basically said the guy has outstanding stuff, is mature, works his tail off, is healthy now and throwing well, and watch out for him.

  17. Singleton struck out three times last night, two looking but did walk once. He has to be more aggressive at the plate or a return to Lakewood must be considered.

    1. He’s striking out much more then he did in Lakewood, but I don’t think he’s looking so overmatched he’d need to be demoted. I think they’ll let him work through his struggles where he is.

  18. Singleton struck out three times last night, two looking but he did walk once. He must be more aggressive at the plate to avoid a return to Lakewood.

    1. He’s not going back to Lakewood, nor should he. I was disappointed to see yesterday’s performance, though – he had cut down a lot on the Ks over the last couple of weeks.

      1. I’d peg his performance somewhere between demotable and fine.

        His ISO is terrible, his K rate is bad, and even with all the BBs his K/BB rate is not encouraging. Other than that, yeah he’s fine.

        I wouldn’t demote him though.

    2. He leads the team in OBP and is 19th in the league in OBP. If he needs to be sent down to work on his approach, then the whole team needs to be sent down to work on their approach.

      1. Wouldn’t that be the case for most players on most teams? Isn’t good to challenge them somewhat and let them work it out?

        1. Wouldn’t that be the case for most players on most teams? Isn’t it good to challenge them somewhat and let them work it out?

          Hopefully more clear.

    1. Wow, I’ve never seen somebody link to bleacherreport as a news type source. Can we get something from sportspickle next?

  19. LOL Bleacher Report. KG expressed concern with Singelton today in the Update. Jason Parks the new BP minors guy gave big ups to De Fratus in the Prospects will Break your Heart column today and wrote up Biddle in his LHP column. Love KG but Professor Parks brings the heat!

  20. The De Fratus love was in response to a comment I left asking about him. Parks is great about answering the questions in the comments. Check him out at BP.

  21. Courtesy of RotoWorld:

    Indians prospect right-hander Jason Knapp underwent season-ending surgery on his right shoulder Tuesday.
    The surgery was performed by Dr. David Altchek. Indians VP of player development Ross Atkins said the procedure was done to to “stabilize and tighten the anterior aspect of the shoulder.” The Indians are hoping that he will be ready for the start of the 2012 season. Knapp, 20, was one of the key pieces from the Cliff Lee deal in 2009.

    1. I hate to hear this stuff. He certainly has been doing more PT than pitching. Sounds like Mathieson, doesn’t it? but Knapp is young and hopefully he can get his career back on track.

    2. Yeah I was sad to hear this, Knapp is still young but it’s got to be disappointing for him and the Indians since he was the highest ceiling player they got in that deal.

  22. Can anyone provide a real reason as to why Kratz is still in AAA and Sardinha is till with the big club? Kratz has produced all year in Lehigh Valley and is better defensively that Sardinha. Sardinha didn’t hit in LV and can’t hit in the big leagues. And Sardinha is extremely mediocre in the field. What gives here?

  23. I’m not sure if this has been mentioned before but these phillies prospects made the minor league all star games:

    Lakewood:
    Anthony Hewitt
    Jim Murphy
    David Buchanan
    Lisalberto Bonilla
    Garrett Claypool

    Clearwater:
    Jonathan Pettibone
    Julio Rodriguez
    Jarred Cosart
    Justin Friend
    Sebastian Valle

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