May 27th Open Discussion

Last night’s scores, and then lots of nonsensical banter about Cliff Lee.

Reading wins 5-3.

Worley with another solid start. Rizzotti 3/5 with 2 more HR

Clearwater wins 13-8.

JC Ramirez is back. 8 K and 0 BB are the key numbers for me, don’t care much about the 4 ER.
Overbeck with #11.

Lakewood wins 11-10.

Sleeper Julio Rodriguez with his debut. Lots of pitches, a few runs, but 6 K in 3.2 IP is at least promising.

69 thoughts on “May 27th Open Discussion

  1. Just a quick note, DSL starts up on Saturday. I’m sure AndyB will be providing his overview shortly.

  2. Ramirez on the season has 41 K’s, 12 BBs, 2 HRs in 47.2 IP. The K rate is about league average, the walk and home run rates are better than average. I’m definitely encouraged by what I’ve seen thus far.

  3. A couple of thoughts.

    On Naylor, I don’t think much of him and, apparently, neither do the Phillies. If he’s an important arm, I seriously doubt they let him throw a complete game. He’s probably a guy who has a chance to be bullpen filler or, more importantly, an extra bargaining chip in a trade.

    Tonight was so typical of this year. Who are the stars? Who are always the stars this year – Overbeck, Rizzotti, and Singleton, with JC Ramirez continuing to be relevant. I hope to God that they finally promote Overbeck so we can see if he’s got a shot or not. With Rizzotti and Singleton, now we’ve got two legit first base prospects (I’m not equating them – obviously, Singleton is far, far more valuable than Rizzotti at this point) which makes me wonder again why the heck they chose to give all that money to Howard. But, in any event, they’ll certainly let Singleton finish the year at first so he can focus on hitting. If they definitely think he’s on a fast track to the majors, which certainly now seems possible, wonder if they’ll start having him play the outfield too. How cool would a Phillies team look with Singleton and Brown in the line-up? Maybe they would even score a run (a pretty hefty challenge for the current team).

  4. Maybe they could start tossing Singleton in LF occasionally. Its not as if the defensive threshold is that high for hte position anyway.

  5. Went to the Blueclaws ALS dinner last night where the players serve as waiters. My sons (7 and 10) and I were very fortunate and had Jarred Cosart as our waiter. He was very friendly and seemed to take a genuine interest in the kids. Both my sons are pitchers and Jarred was kind enough to give them some pointers and even watched them pitch a little bit. I know you don’t really know someone after a couple of hours but he made a strong impression on the kids and has made two new fans and has moved to number one on their favorite player list.

    He also commented that he is very good friends with PPs own Michael Schwimer.

  6. Naylor- placed on the 40 man roster two seasons back, and was kept on this offseason. But they threw him to the wolves and let him throw 111 pitches in a single game so obviously he is of no interest to Philly. I say he is as of now the most statistically impressive of all the Reading starters, and since the LVIP staff can now be considered to be comprised of (perhaps mostly) all minor league veterans hoping for a fill-in role, he is what you have above A(A) and more likely for advancement as of now than Flande, Aumont , and Worley , and if he is even a candidate for a future MLB bullpen role that would make him one of the top MLB hopefuls right now.

    Draft, seen on other threads , some draft stuff, so I’ll tuck it in here. I see on Frankie Piliere’s mock draft that Ruben Amaro JR. has visited Draft hopeful OF Austin Wilson and family at his home in Palo Alto. Since Wilson is considered a big ticket item with his Stanford commitment and academic background, this may be significant. Looks like a Michael Taylor clone. If they can draft and sign this OF they might be able to get that level of ability before the “Stanfordization” of his swing.

  7. I’d rather have Singleton continue to work on his bat then worry about switching positions.

    Naylor is on the 40-man roster so they must think SOMETHING of him. What that is I’m not going to pretend to know.

  8. I like those comments on Cosart. It suggests that he is a good guy and, just as important, is wise enough to hang out with the really smart college guy who can serve as a “big brother” mentor to him. Maybe that doesn’t exactly desribe his relationship with Mike Schwimmer, but, to me, it suggests that Cosart is probably pretty sharp himself. Boy, this 2008 draft just keeps looking better and better – and we all pretty much had a sense of that as and when it happened.

  9. DSL season opening post should be up in the next day or two. Unfortunately the roster has not been updated yet on the minor league site, though I will also look elsewhere.

  10. Other notes from the Lakewood ALS dinner:

    Matt Way extremely friendly
    Singleton appeared shorter than I expected but he is thick
    Santana towered over everyone. Looks like a man among boys
    Nuck Hernandez was not there. Through the grapevine: best case scenario is that he is out 4 weeks with season ending surgery still an option
    Great event

  11. marfis – wilson goes to Harvard Westlake, which is in LA, so I don’t think he lives in Palo Alto.

  12. Naylor is obviously someone that the Phillies will look at for the future, the reason why they left him in to pitch over a 100 pitches for a shutout is because he has averaged 160 innings the last two years

  13. **With Rizzotti and Singleton…makes me wonder again why the heck they chose to give all that money to Howard**

    got to be one of the least intelligent statements in the history of this blog. not saying the writer is dumb, just that that statement made no sense. think about that for a second. i am not even going to take the time to rebut that statement, just a plea to the group to please think before you post.

  14. Couldn’t agree more PPFan … was going to say something similar to you, but just let it go … but seriously … 40 ABs for a positionless AA guy and 50 ABs for a LOW-A guy … and we’re supposed to regret signing Ryan Howard? Utterly senseless.

  15. Marfis,

    Although I believe another outfielder in Rd 1 is about the least desirable outcome in the draft right now, if Austin Wilson fell to #27 he might be an good choice I think.

    I am not sure how to quantify this to see if it is an accurate statement but Reuben and the Phillies certainly seem attracted to Stanford connected ballplayers in one way, shape, or form. Sometimes they are successful (Howard), sometimes the results are so-so (Mayberry), and sometimes things don’t work out (Jacob Stewart). Wilson could be another link in that chain.

    Since Stanford seems to have a “stronger than your average college appeal” for the players considering going there, and considering that Wilson arguably has Top 15 or Top 20 talent, if the Phillies drafted him I doubt he would sign unless they were willing to pay significantly overslot…maybe as high as Top 10 money.

    Do you see it differently? And what player would you like to see the Phillies target that is a realistic option at #27?

  16. I doubt we’d bust slot for a 1st round guy. Stranger things have happened though. I’d much rather we target middle infielders and catchers in the draft if its feasible. Just please, please, please, no more toolsy OFs for the moment (not saying Wilson is one, I have no idea what type of OF he is).

  17. ” Sometimes they are successful (Howard)”

    Did you mean Michael Taylor? Ryan Howard attended Missouri State,

    Phillies draftees from Stanford include Taylor, Adam Sorgi, Daren Naatjes and you have to go back 15 years for the fourth in Steve Carter. Mayberry was acquired via trade, Stewart was Stanford bound but I don’t know if he’s hugely relevant. Little evidence that there is a real pattern.

  18. Alan,

    Yes, I meant Michael Taylor. Thanks for catching that. As to the Stanford track record, I am only talking about the period during which Reuben Amaro Jr. has emerged as a major power broker in the Front Office. That period would only cover the last 5 years or so. Kind of like the Bill Belichick fascination with Florida players.

    But I agree in general, probably not enough evidence to make any judgements.

  19. do u think that colvin wil b demoted to short season williamsport when they begin 17.76 era with runers in scoring position also what about domingo wil he go to williamsport

  20. Wasn’t Matt Spencer from Stanford, or didn’t he at least played at Stanford for some of his college career?

  21. spencer didnt he play at north carolina and transfer? How good is this kid harper, will he be another a rod or griffy, 5 or months in minors and make the majors, 29 homeruns in high school, graduating young, he seems like a top stud.

  22. The mock draft I posted in yesterday’s daily discussion said RAJ visited Wilson and his family personally. If he drops they should at least know what it would take to get it done.

  23. Steve, ERA with runners in scoring position is kind of a junk stat. All it illustrates is that MOST runs score as a result of runners in scoring position. Look at the same stat for some of the best pitching prospects in the minors. Aroldis Chapman: 14.46. Zack Britton: 14.40. Martin Perez: 11.77.

    So while you may get sticker shock from that RISP ERA, look over to batting average against. .272 with bases empty, .280 with RISP. When looking at some of these splits, keep context in mind.

  24. Slow down Alan…you’re saying that teams tend to score more runs when they have runners on? I’m SHOCKED.

  25. FYI about Reading’s stadium radar gun (as was discussed in another thread). I’ve been advised that it is slow by 2 mph.

  26. Keith Law mentioned in a column that the Phils are looking at local HS pitcher Jesse Biddle with their first pick. That would be a meaningful move up for him on draft boards.

    I would love Austin Wilson, but I sincerely doubt they will bust slot in a significant way in the first couple of rounds. They seem to try to keep in line with the Commissioner’s office on that front. Their overslot bonuses are usually for guys in later rounds that cost a couple hundred thousand up to $1m. So I think they would only take him if he slides a little bit and they think it won’t take an egregious sum to sign him. I definitely do not know his bonus demands at all, but if they are equivalent to the top half of the first round, I don’t think the Phils will go there.

    It seems like last year they drafted three high ceiling guys with strong commitments (Colvin, Susac, Stewart) that they thought would take a similar amount to sign, planning on signing one and perhaps two depending on how other picks worked out. I know they have more picks early on this year, so they might not do it again, but I kind of liked that approach.

  27. what do u guys think about my list of top prospects at each position SP cosart 1b singleton 2b h garcia (stretch) ss villar 3b overbeck lf gillies ? cf gose rf brown c valle CL mathieson….also i am one of the mailmen for j biddle and no i havent seen RAJ…lol

  28. @NEPP – that’s just what I was thinking.

    A few years ago, I was looking at some player’s splits, and I thought, “Wow, almost all of his RBIs come when he is batting with men on! This guy is a real run producer!” Then about ten seconds later, I shook my head at my own stupidity

    – Jeff

  29. I have no problem with the Phillies overdrafting a player that they really like if they have strong indications that he won’t be available where they would prefer to take him. I’d be fine with Biddle at 27. IMO, he’s is going to be a beast when it all comes together… a number 2 or 3 innings-eating workhorse.

  30. Seems like all the Phillies draft rumors so far have us either (1) significantly overdrafting a guy so that the slot matches his money demands; or (2) taking yet another raw HS toolsy guy to join the 10 we’ve drafted in the last 3+ years. Awesome.

  31. I don’t know. If you use the “they won’t be there when we pick next standard” isn’t your draft potentially dictated by the least rational of the other 29 teams?

  32. “got to be one of the least intelligent statements in the history of this blog”

    PPFan:

    Since you’ve insulted my intelligence in a very nasty way (something that has NEVER happened to me in the entire time I have posted on this site – that’s got to be well over a thousand posts) and since you clearly have no clue about baseball economics or the concept of value over replacement player, I am going to respond as follows.

    Dear jackass – here’s my point. The point is that they have invested an enormous amount of money (the most money ever paid to a Phillie) over an extended period of time to a player who: (a) is already over 30; (b) has the type of body that is typically associated with players whose skills decline quickly; (c) got the contract well over a year before the team needed to make a decision on him; (d) plays at position, first base, where it is, by far, the easiest to find a decent (if not exact) replacement (by contrast, it is almost impossible to find a solid replacement for a good-hitting shortstop or second baseman); (e) the team has some viable prospects (particularly Singleton), whose development over the next year could have influenced the team’s decision on whether to commit such a huge amount of money over such an extended period of time (in other words, if, by the end of this year, it is clear that Singleton is on his way to stardom, the team easily could have found a viable solution to man this position over the short haul until Singleton got to the majors; and (f) the money the team spends on Howard could end up meaning that they cannot make other expenditures (PP has said the team can also sign Werth – probably so, but even if that is true, but this huge commitment of financial resources still limits other things the team can do, such as signing a second ace, getting a replacement closer, etc. . . . ) – expenditures that could, in the long run, give them more bang for their buck.

    The bottom line is that the Howard decision (particularly the timing of such decision) has been roundly question (and in many quarters, highly criticized) not only by me, but by the vast majority of those who study baseball for a living. As noted above, there are many reasons why this move (and, particularly, the timing of the move), was not such a wise thing. The existence of a very cheap and viable replacement at first base is but one of many reasons, there are others, but it reminded me of why the Howard move was questionable. I did not say Singleton was an immediate replacement or that he was as good as Howard, I was just commenting in passing that the Howard move was questionable – and it most certainly is.

    So, if you decide to make highly insulting personal comments, know what you’re talking about. Clearly, you do not.

  33. And, by the way, anybody who has ever read anything I have written on this blog knows that I caution all the readers not to take any prospect seriously until we see some credible performance at AA. For you to have construed my comment to mean that I think that 18 year-old Jonathan Singleton is ready for the big leagues, is better than Ryan Howard, or is the sole reason that signing Ryan Howard to a huge contract right now was a questionable move, is just incomprehensible.

  34. With those teams looking at him, if the Phils want him they can get him at 27. I doubt the Stros would take him at or the Angels would take him at 18. I guess we’ll see…

  35. Catch 22, the original quoted statement you made is still worthy of being called out for its ridiculousness

    Your rebuttal was 90% a condemnation of the Howard contract on its own merits. That’s a separate discussion. Your original post cited the performance of Singleton and Rizzotti as premises for you claim about Howard.

    Singleton could OPS 1.000 this year in Lakewood, and he would still not be a remote consideration in terms of the composition of the 25 man roster (other than possibly as a chip in trade discussions).There is still far too much uncertainty for his status to be an input in a Howard decision in 2010. So much can still happen on and off the field to disrupt his development (see: Angel Villalona, everyone’s pick for 2012 starting 1B of the SF Giants). Maybe if he had a standout 2011 ending up in Reading, and held his own to start there in 2012, then you are talking about a near-ready guy

    And Rizzotti is neither a 1B, nor a prospect. He’s had a great 120 PA start but has never had standout performance in previous years despite being an older, college draftee, and the team moved him permanently off 1B in Lakewood. Again, having his name represent a premise for your Howard claim is absurd, regardless of whether that claim can be well supported with other arguments (which IMO, it can)

  36. Law always had us taking Knapp in the Supp round and we ended up getting him in the 70s. Hope its the same with Biddle. BA has him at 116 overall and PGCross has him at 98 overall. I don’t know where Law has Biddle in his Top 100. Not sure I would feel that great about reaching so far (i.e. picking him at 27). Others may feel differently.

  37. Hey, there’s a CoStart tonight. Maybe Homerton will go yard. Hopefully Anthony won’t swing Throughitt. Should be a Barnesburner. Jiwanna me to stop now? No Way.

  38. Again, I would hardly a side comment that I made about Ryan Howard that happened to be made in the context of a discussion about prospects to be an affirmative assertion or argument that the mere presence of Singleton and Rizzotti make Howard expendable or his contract foolish – I don’t believe those things to be true and I did not say that. Furthermore, THAT IS NOT WHAT I MEANT, and anyone who has ever read my blog postings knows that could not possibly be what I meant. But, in the “pile on” world of blogging, nobody is ever able to clarify what he or she meant or get people to seek clarification of what was meant. Rather, it’s much easier to assume that what was intended was least tenable position (and one with which I DO NOT agree). But go ahead, pile on, continue to rip me for having a view that I don’t have.

  39. Reading moves:
    Assigned RHP Ty Taubenheim to Williamsport (NY-Penn) and C Torre Langley to Lakewood (SAL). Announced RHP B.J. Rosenberg was promoted to the team from Clearwater (FSL) and C John Suomi was optioned to the team from Lehigh Valley (IL)

  40. Gee, Cosart is doing well, I wonder why we signed Roy Halladay?

    Do you think I believe that too?

  41. Agree with posts 15 and 16 from ppfan and Tom regarding the Singleton/Howard comment. Was going to comment, but decided that if I did not have something nice to say, I should say nothing.

  42. Agree that the Howard contract will either be a success or failure on its own merits and has nothing to do with the success of other prospects in the system.

    IF Howard is still producing at his current level when its “clear that Singleton is on his way to stardom” then it shouldn’t be terrible difficult to trade an MVP caliber 1B/DH with a remaining contract of 2 or 3 years at $25M per.

    IF Howard is not producing at his current level when its “clear that Singleton is on his way to stardom” then the team will have to eat a big chunk of that contract (remember Jim Thome?) In that situation, the team will certainly take a financial hit but even paying 1/2 of Howards contract + Singleton at league minimum, they will still have a star 1b at for around $13m-$15m

    Obviously the worse case scenario is that Howard tanks and Singleton hits a wall on the way to stardom.

    I’ll just note that I’m not a big fan of the Howard signing but it’s not likely the disaster that some claim.

  43. Catch 22 – I guess your verbal assault above wasn’t enough, so we’ll have to continue to see more. I think you should let it go ….

  44. Squire,

    Hope you’re right. Recent ESPN Insider buzz says that Phillies at #27 and Dodgers at #28 are seriously considering Biddle. We’ll see.

    I would be fine with Austin Wilson at #27 and Biddle at #77. Good value there in my book. But Biddle is big (legit 6’5″, 230lbs) and he is a LHP. So I could see him getting overdrafted.

  45. Would love to see the Phillies take Jesse Biddle in the 2nd round if he lasts that long. I have seen him ranked in the top 40 in different places, so maybe he has a chance to be a 1st round pick. Big Left Handers with decent velocity don’t grow on trees.

  46. Moving on . . . if people won’t accept that’s not what I meant, what can I do? Maybe I can join the crowd and write my own little critique of the position I didn’t really take and don’t believe in. The more the merrier! Have a good night all.

  47. Biddle is also a special case, agree with the sentiment or not, because he’s from Philly. I’m sure the Phillies are taking that into strong consideration, much like how the Redsox traditionally don’t like to lose highly regarded New Englanders. Personally, I think he’s worth the pick on talent and potential alone, so I probably shouldn’t have used the word “overdraft” even though BA/PGCC continue to list him as a 2nd-4th round talent.

  48. Honestly, aside from a kid who throws the in mid to high-90s with good breaking stuff, how, as even an interested casual fan, do you get a good read or feel for these high school baseball prospects you’ve never really seen? Obviously talent scouts have to and do make these judgments, but, man, I sure have no idea how good these various kids are given the uneven competition and the fact that almost none of the hitters have seen consistently good breaking stuff or even quality fastballs. It’s not a criticism, but a legitimate question, particularly as see people weigh in on these guys.

  49. If the question is directed at me, check out youtube channel MLBdraftables to watch video of some of the pospects l’ve seen, going back to last summer.

  50. LHP that can get it up to 94 with a decent breaking ball in HS are worth it. Just as JE pointed out with the Red Sox, the Braves do the same thing in the first round every year taking a local kid from Georgia, obviously has more talent to choose from down South but you get the picture. James, any thoughts on Biddle? I do remember you saying you liked kids from the North b/c of less arm mileage and more opportunit to shape, correct?

  51. First strike out for Cosart in the second is a called 96 mph fastball on the outside corner.

  52. My friend was at Jesse Biddle’s last game (today vs Haverford state quarters) and I was told he threw a No-hitter. I have watched him this kid is dirty.

  53. Man I never remember a philly kid going in the first round,usually they dont face enough good competion when they do they struggle. first I am hearing of this kid , hope they take a local kid would love to see it, Need to read more on this kid,sorry I meant pitcher in first round i know marzano was first round, from temple and south philly.

  54. pp he said he throws a 6-12 curve, but the write up you have said not much bite to curve. little confused. can you have 6-12 curve without bite to it??

  55. Did anybody keep a track on their VSL games?

    Check this guy out:

    Astudillo d/b 10-14-91 5’9″ 182

    listed as a catcher…BUT has been playing 2nd base.

    Hitting in the high .400s…has had two 4 hit games and a 3 hit game.

    Of course, just a few games…but you gotta pay attention when a guy has these kind of high-multiple games…and he has had one game w no hits, but all the others (admittedly a few) he’s had at least two hits…

    Give a look.

  56. john could you please just shut up about the lee deal. God damn, you are not the karnak of prospect evaluation. Every retarted post of yours does not have to talk about the lee deal.

  57. On the Austin Wilson thing, as above, I would say if the Phillies draft Wilson they would be prepared to pay over slot since it is widely believed he will be one of the most expensive to buy out of his commitment. I wasn’t thinking they would go that route, but given Frankie Piliere’s report maybe they do. A player I have looked at at 27 would be Justin O’Connor a C/SS/RHP a HS type looked at as a slot signing. I get most of the impressions from Seiler’s blog and videos on MLB.com. Also I like the looks of Yordy Cabrera, HS SS, Garin Cecchini HS 3B (injury issue), Kellin Deglan Canadian HS C, and as above I’d look at Jesse Biddle , LHP, from Germantown Friends Academy.

  58. Marfis
    You are a wonder. Easily the most informative poster on the site.(except for the boss of course)

  59. Rocky,

    a 12-6 (6-12 would be going up hill :)) curve describes the trajectory of the pitch not necessarily the bite that pitch has.

    Obviously if it is a rolling curve-ball it will need to get tighter to be effective.

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