Reader Top 30; Final Spot

2010 Reader Top 30

What a long strange trip its been. We’ve finally reached the end of the Reader Top 30 for 2010. There has been lots of good (and bad) discussion about the prospects who made it, and some who won’t make it. Matt Way took the #29 spot, and that means there are 8 players left for one final slot in the Top 30. Look for my SONAR piece on corner outfielders later today, and then if all goes well, my personal Top 30 will be posted on Friday. As I mentioned before, I was asked to provide my Top 30 this year, as well as a minor league overview for the 2010 Phillies Annual which is prepared by Jason from Beerleaguer. You can order a copy here to see what I have to say. My order for this website will be the same as in the Annual, but with more detailed info/writeups. Finally, if you want to submit a personal top 30 list, which I will attempt to log into an Excel spreadsheet for later viewing, please send an email to phuturephillies at gmail dot com and put “Reader Top 30” in the subject line. Thank you. Check below for the last poll.

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21. Jon Pettibone, RHP
22. Yohan Flande, LHP
23. Leandro Castro, OF
24. Colby Shreve, RHP
25. Zach Collier, OF
26. Michael Schwimer, RHP
27. Jonathon Villar, SS
28. Jesus Sanchez, RHP
29. Matt Way, LHP
30.

39 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; Final Spot”

  1. Would it be easier for you if we put our personal top 30s in a spreadsheet of its own?

    I went with Carpenter. We’ve got several interesting prospects who didn’t crack the list. There are a couple players who I was surprised never really got discussed, Quintin Berry among them. Ditto Steve Susdorf, who has been popular in seasons past.

    Should Carpenter win, 28 of the top 30 will match my personal list. I had Susdorf and Hewitt on my list. Savery and Pettibone did not make my own 30.

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  3. I voted for Dugan again, but, thinking about it some more, I also would have no problem with Carpenter. Again, I’m not a Carpenter fan, but we’re at 30, and it looks like he’s going to be a major league player, so it’s completely defensible to put him here.

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  4. Other: Aaron Altherr
    Not big on anyone left. Just voting Altherr because I believe he deserves a mention along side of Dugan and Hudson. Altherr has less baseball experience than Dugan, but had equal or better numbers than Dugan. Better K%. Better BB%. Better SB %. Similar OPS.

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  5. I’ve already got my copy of the Annual, and it looks great. Well worth it for any Phillies fan.

    Went with Dugan here again; hopefully we’ll get him over the top here.

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  8. Dugan! Dugan! Dugan! Come on, guys. Give the kid a chance here in the Top 30. Someone liked him enough for make him a No. 1 draft pick.

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  9. Dugan, but I can see Carpenter or Hudson. I have all three ahead of some guys who have already gone off the board.

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  10. Other: Zagurski. I see the other candidates as too unproven or too far away. When I see pitcher who consistently strikes out more than 10 batters per 9 innings with occasional control problems, the optimist in me says the control problems might improve. I believe it is easier for a pitcher to improve his walk rate than his strike out rate. It’s the same reason (although much later in the voting) I picked Happ so high last year.

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  11. Last chance for Carpenter, and I’m voting for him again.
    To PhilsFarm —
    No, nobody liked Dugan enough to make him a first rounder. The Phillies nabbed him toward the end of round 2. Certainly no crime to go in the second round, and I like him better than Hewitt, but he does not have a first round pedigree.

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  14. I saw Golstein’s list. I think we know a lot more about these guys than he does. How could you possibly watch Antionio Bastardo pitch and conclude that he’s a change-up specialist? Dude, he’s one pitch pitcher right now, but that pitch is a deceptive, rising and often very effective, 91-96 MPH fastball. He’s NOT a change-up specialist.

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  15. I would say when it comes to some of the more obscure specs we might have a better understanding. But, when it comes to the guys they actually have their eyes on, I would say they know far more than we do.

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  16. “I would say when it comes to some of the more obscure specs we might have a better understanding. But, when it comes to the guys they actually have their eyes on, I would say they know far more than we do.”

    Fair enough, that’s probably right.

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  17. ****How could you possibly watch Antionio Bastardo pitch and conclude that he’s a change-up specialist?****

    Because he used his changeup as an out pitch as a minor-leaguer…like a lot of other guys, he uses that fastball to set up his change.

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  18. “Because he used his changeup as an out pitch as a minor-leaguer…like a lot of other guys, he uses that fastball to set up his change.”

    Well, you must have watched a lot of him in the minors because the guy I saw in the majors used a fastball to set up the fastball. Any off-speed pitch was just a distraction and, from what I saw, he sure as heck was not a change-up specialist, although, if that’s what he becomes, we have a lot of positive things to look forward to.

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  19. In the majors his pitch type breakdown is as follows:

    FB: 73.8
    SL: 14.8
    CH: 11.4

    Unfortunately they don’t have his minor league breakdown. It might have been a lot different.

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  20. Other than watching the five tools of Michael Taylor, my most memorable moment last minor league season was watching extraordinary late movement on Bastardo’s fastball warming up in the bullpen for a Reading start in Harrisburg .

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  22. Other – Anthony Hewitt

    Another throw away vote, but like somebody said about Dugan, somebody must’ve liked him to make him a first-round pick (and Hewitt actually WAS a first-round pick).

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  23. I’ll bet there are at least 5 guys who will make our list next year who are not on it yet because they haven’t shown enough. I believe someone or maybe several from the list of Hewitt, Dugan, Hudson, Altherr, and Huff will show something this year plus guys like Zeid, Cisco, Cloud, Hyatt, Angelle, Inch, and Hernandez could all have a good year. These are all guys not in the top 30 that have potential to crash the list next year and be much better than guys already on the list but with lower upside. I can’t wait for spring training to get started!!

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  24. “In the majors his pitch type breakdown is as follows:

    FB: 73.8
    SL: 14.8
    CH: 11.4”

    This proves my point – he threw breaking balls in the majors last year only as “show them” pitches. He only featured a fastball. The lack of command over a breaking pitch is but one reason why he should and will start out as a reliever (there are other reasons too, such as his injury history and the fact that his FB can, at this point, be thrown with greater velocity if he only pitches an inning or two).

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  25. I sometimes wonder if you ever even pay attention here…from the archives of this very site:

    April 28, 2008: “Antonio Bastardo, LHP, High-A Clearwater (Phillies) – Bastardo can be seen as one of those “is what he is” kind of players: a short lefty with average velocity. However, beyond his left-handedness, he’s also got fantastic command and a killer changeup. ”

    April 23, 2008: “Kevin Goldstein: Well, 34 in 22.2 innings, but still damn good!. Tony the Bastard is a little lefty is good command and a great changeup. Not a lot of projection, but could end up a bullpen piece.”

    From ReclinerGM.com: “Well, let’s start with the basic scouting report. He’s small and skinny, listed at 5′11”, 195 lbs. He is basically a fastball/change-up pitcher. His fastball reportedly comes in around 90-91 mph, and he has a deceptive delivery that makes it appear faster to hitters. I don’t know the speed of his change-up, but he uses it very well to get strikeouts. ”

    So basically, he has a decent changeup that he used alot in the minors to get SOs…he hasn’t yet used it much in very limited MLB action.

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  26. What your recounting of various citations to Bastardo scouting reports misses is how often these are just recycled reports from other cites (as your ReclinerGM makes clear by saying his fastball is “reportedly” anything – no first hand knowledge.) There is no dispute that Bastardo reportedly had a good change-up. But we got to see him with our own eyes, and his best pitch without a doubt was his fastball. Frankly, his change-up looked pretty terrible from the limited times he flashed it (backed up by fangraphs’ pitch analysis). Beware a small sample size, I know, but we just didn’t see a change-up specialist in the 30 plus innings we saw last summer.

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  28. “I would say when it comes to some of the more obscure specs we might have a better understanding. But, when it comes to the guys they actually have their eyes on, I would say they know far more than we do.”

    Agreed. A guy like John Sickels will miss frequently on Phillies prospects because he’s based in the midwest. It’s difficult to judge the entirety of the minor leagues just because they are so massive.

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  29. The reports on his fastball are from back when he was purely a starter and he did sit 89-93 at that point. Other than his massive overthrowing in that SD start (something Rich Dubee mentioned at the time), he’s never had a big fastball as a starter. That will likely change as a 1 inning reliever.

    Thus, tossing the scouting reports from his MiLB time is iffy at best.

    On his changeup and Fangraphs: As anyone on Fangraphs would say, SAMPLE SIZE, SAMPLE SIZE, SAMPLE SIZE. I trust the multiple scouting reports from his 4 seasons/271 IP in the minors of 23 IP at the MLB level.

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  30. Is someone trying to teach me a lesson? Hmmm . . . interesting.

    Anyway, I could care less what the scouting reports say, I saw the guy pitch in several outings and Will is right. As of last year, the FB was, by far, his dominant pitch. Maybe as he plays more in the big leagues he’ll spot the change better and be more comfortable. But, please, I trust what I see and the true statistical breakdown from his actual big league appearances more than I trust year-old (plus) heresay from some old scouting reports, some of which were likely recycled.

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  33. NEPP, if he were a hitter I’d agree with you. As a pitcher, I trust a couple looks at a guy versus a bunch of “reports” that I am very confident are just regurgitations of what is readily found in other publications (much as this site does, with absolutely no disrespect intended). Maybe he has a good changeup, but we didn’t see it, and I hate to say it about KG, cause he’s my favorite, but I just don’t believe it anymore. His changeup was a very bad pitch last year, he telegraphed it, the armspeed was obvious, and he couldn’t throw it for strikes. However, he had good deception on his fastball, which also featured nice tail in addition to it’s average-plus velocity. I can see where the minor league strikeouts come from on that pitch, not to mention the flails Jason Giambi had at that slider (which was inconsistent, and I would still say is probably below average). At any rate, yep, I’ll take those 23 innings over what I see as lazy reporting that should have at least made reference to the grossly contradictory information we got late last summer.

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  35. Are you referencing “clout” as if you are in some sort of club that knows who that is and is in on some inside joke? An anonymous, but I’m sure exclusive, “Phillies message board” club of some sort? Awesome. You’ve certainly graduated from your standing on the playground.

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  36. ****interesting, when did clout start posting here???****

    Yeah, it was an homage to clout (a regular on Beerleaguer…where I also post occasionally).

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  37. Will is right again. For hitters, while you do learn something (perhaps even a lot) by watching a limited number of plate appearances, you really need a larger sample size. But for pitchers, you can learn much, perhaps even most, of what you need to know if you see several appearances. So, yes, the change-up last year was a rarely used and mediocre pitch for him and he was a pitcher that pitched almost entirely off the FB. The statistical breakdowns support this conclusion and, in my mind, supersede the older scouting reports. That doesn’t mean those reports are irrelevant, they’re just dated, but they do tell us that, perhaps, there are more and better things to come.

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  38. The discrepancy between how much Bastardo actually used his change up in the majors and how good it was, versus the minor league reports are what lead me to think he could use more seasoning in the minor leagues to improve and gain more confidence in his off-speed stuff, a la Kyle Kendrick, who was also rushed to the major leagues to fulfill a need on the Phillies before he was really ready.

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  39. No way you can learn much or even most of what you need to know about a pitcher from a few appearances. In his first couple of outing with the Phillies, Bastardo was obviously overthrowing, which would affect the control and release of his off-speed pitches.

    Meanwhile, based on a couple of appearances, guys like Duckworth and Kendrick appeared to be future ML regulars while Greg Maddox looked like an career minor leaguer.

    If it were that obvious, teams wouldn’t keep screwing up by trading away future all-stars while keeping future duds.

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