Reader Top 30; #21

2010 Reader Top 30

Joe Savery edges out the voting for #20 by a very slim margin, just ahead of both Yohan Flande and Jon Pettibone. Another runoff could have been in order, but I’m just going to go with Savery here since he’s leading, and then the vote can go on as scheduled for #21. The voting between Flande and Pettibone should be interesting, and Leandro Castro was close behind. Kelly Dugan and Julio Rodriguez each got a write-in vote that I saw, Dugan gets the edge because he was the first name listed. So check below for the next round.

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05. Anthony Gose, OF
06. Domingo Santana, OF
07. Sebastian Valle, C
08. JC Ramirez, RHP
09. Jarred Cosart, RHP
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP
11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
12. Brody Colvin, RHP
13. Jon Singleton, 1B
14. Justin De Fratus, RHP
15. Jiwan James, OF
16. Freddy Galvis, SS
17. Brian Rosenberg, RHP
18. Vance Worley, RHP
19. Mike Stutes, RHP
20. Joe Savery, LHP
21.

61 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #21”

  1. I have more respect for Carpenter than the Phillies. Like Happ
    he will have to fight and get a break to even have a chance.

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  3. I continue with Petitbone, avoiding some minor league warhorses with padded stats but, seemingly, questionable stuff.

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  6. Leandro Castro.
    Should have been selected 4-5 picks ago.
    Joe Savery has as much business in the top 20 as Anthony Hewitt. Savery has done nothing at each level and been promoted without justification.

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  9. Casting a lonely Collier vote. More upside and younger than Castro. Flande is more of a tweener that does not play well at the upper levels.

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  13. Hat trick for me – the last 3 voted in are not in my top 30. Vote Carpenter and make it 4. I went with Hudson again, I’ve got him up there with James at 13/14.

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  15. Not a fan of the Savery vote, I’d have him probably right at 30 (imagine this system if they hadn’t seemingly missed with their last two first rounders), went with Pettibone again then I’ll go Collier and Castro.

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  18. Agree with Castro comments. Voted for him twice now. All others are suspect in some way, But Castro has performed as billed, has talent and skills, shows it, and has upside. Shreve has no pro track record to speak of and must prove he is healthy for a full season. Could be that he will move up in September via performance. That would be the time to vote higher for him. Just a guess today that he will perform as billed.

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  19. Austin Hyatt ……You just can’t ignore his numbers any more

    What has Pettibone ever done ? Its about results not just potential .

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  20. Pettibone, again, but wouldn’t mind Castro. Some commenters have won me over. I agree Shreve needs to get in the discussion soon.

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  21. Just curious, how do two of the fastest players in MiLB have below average range in CF? Are their jumps and routes that bad? I’ve read several scouting reports raving about Gillies’ defense. Chalk up another feather in the defensive metrics skepticism hat for me.

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  22. With all do respect to the Pettibone gents I don’t see a body of work worth putting him ahead of either Flande or Castro however the fun is in the debate!

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  23. “The fun is in the debate…”
    Then will someone, anyone, who voted for Savery please give a reason why they would vote for him? Did not see one tangible reason given in the comments.

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  24. Pettibone again. A 19 year old starting pitcher with potential and good peripheral stats is a far better prospect in my mind than a 23 year old relief pitcher at the same level.

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  26. I’ve been writing in Schwimer the past few days, and it doesn’t seem to be getting recognized, so I’ll try once more to write in Mike Scwimer.

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  27. I have never in my life seen so many fans pleading for a raise in ticket prices.

    I don’t get the votes for Savery. Carpenter looks like a much better pitcher. Same age, same level.

    I’ve been voting Flande. More polish than Pettibone.

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  29. bad routes are the reason for most bad outfield defense.

    its why torri hunter and shane victorino look like good fielders, but aren’t. (hunter is one of the worst center fielders in the bigs)
    they look like they are trying really, really hard but the good players like mike cameron, carlos beltran, and death to flying things himself franklin guttierez don’t look like they ever try.

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  30. Someone will have to explain to me how you think Pettibone has a higher upside than Shreve. Shreve had TJ surgery in 2008 and assuming he’s fully healthy now, he will likely jump up this list in a hurry this year. He could be very good..

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  31. By the way, I recently talked to two Phils minor league pitchers who should know and they both said that Gose gets to everything and that his speed is unreal. That’s good enough for me. Last season was his first full year so I’m sure he made some mistakes in the OF but his speed plus his unbelievable arm suggests another Michael Bourn to me which is pretty high praise defensively. Berry, Gilles, Gose, James and Hudson will have CF covered in the whole system.

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  32. I think i’ve voted for about 6 different guys the entire list. Nobody else seems to have love for our leftys (except for the one who doesnt deserve it- Savery). Going with Flande again.

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  33. I find the strong anti-Savery reaction to be pretty surprising.

    I didn’t think he was any great shakes last year either (he was okay, at best), but he has advanced quickly and I still think there’s a chance that his stuff will improve. He’s also big, strong, athletic and lefty. You can disagree about whether he should be listed at number 20, but if you think there’s no upside to this player, I just don’t agree with that. To me, he still has the chance of becoming a back of the rotation starter or serviceable middle reliever which, if true, would justify a ranking at this point (Schwim’s upside is probably also as a middle reliever).

    As for the Carpenter comparison, I would view them to be roughly equivalent as prospects. Carpenter had a better year, but he was also a year older. The biggest differences are that Carpenter is right-handed and has kind of soft body notable differences when neither player throws particularly hard at this point.

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  34. @Murray…in my mind, Pettibone has a higher upside than Shreve because he’s actually thrown a professional pitch and is younger. That being said, when (if?) Pettibone is off the board, Shreve will probably be where I go next.

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  35. Zach Collier…one year removed from a successful first year. Hopefuly last years struggles helped him learn about his self and his abilities.

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  36. What peripherals does Pettibone have he pitched for the frigin cross cutters. Let me see some numbers from one of the A clubs first and I didn’t even mention they had to shut him down for arm problems al beit they said precautionary.

    Hey I hope he turns out to be a ranked prospect. Maybe we do this again in June and he is there but for now there are quite a few guys he belongs behind.

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  37. Castro.

    I’m basically with the Savery bashers–he’s never had good peripherals, his “win” at 20 was solely based on draft position and name recognition. Wonder if any big-league team would give you something decent in trade for him?

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  38. On a marginally related point . . . .

    The more I see, read and hear about Gillies and Aumont, the more impressed I become with those two players. Gillies, aside from his great physical gifts is supposed to be an admirable person and has a great motor. He plays with significant intensity. I also like his statistics a bit more each time I look at them. He really does have the look of a potential top tier lead-off player and centerfielder.

    On Aumont, if you go to the Phils’ website, you will see an interview with him. Apparently, 3 years ago, he did not even speak English. You would never know this from hearing him speak – he speaks incredibly well now with an American (not French Canadian) accent and he seems likeable. I also saw tapes of him pitch and his breaking ball is a killer; his fastball also has great life and velocity. And he has the perfect body for a power pitcher – tall, lanky, but very strong and powerfully built. I’m not saying he’s going to be as good as Kyle Drabek, but I think he may have even more upside.

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  39. Carpenter is not 1 year older than Savery. They were born in 1985.
    Carpenter: 6’3, 230, May, 1985
    Joe Savery: 6’3, 215, November, 1985

    Savery is 24 and has yet to have a good minor league season.

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  40. Murray, the fact that Shreve already had surgery on his pitching arm makes him higher risk than someone like Pettibone. Shreve might have higher upside, but that upside comes with more risk. Although DMAR points out that Pettibone was shut down with arm problems. Still, I suppose that’s better than requiring surgery. I know what you’re saying – the unknown potential of Shreve seems great compared to the only slightly better known potential of Pettibone. This is one where I need at least a little proof that Shreve is good to go and can get hitters out.

    DMAR, Pettibone’s K/9 was very good. That’s a peripheral stat. Pitchers have a lot of influence over their strikeout rates, so that’s something positive in his corner. Of course, pitchers also have a lot of influence over their BB/9 and his was pretty high. Since he was younger than most of the people he was facing and he was able to strike a lot of them out, it suggests he has a lot of ability. The question is how much he is able to harness that ability…and I suppose whether or not he can stay healthy.

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  42. I can see both sides of the Pettibone/Shreve debate. Shreve is 21 years old has not thrown a pitch. Pettibone is 19 years old and has played and produced an outstanding K/9. On the other hand, Shreve had a great scouting report and 2 plus pitches (Fastball, Changeup). If Shreve is healthy and plays well in the NYPenn he will be the better prospect.
    At this point I think it is fair to rank Pettibone ahead of him before spring training, before everyone knows if Shreve is healthy. At this point, Lino Martinez could be rated just as high as Shreve. They are unknowns.

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  43. The article I referenced was for throwing, not fielding range. The “total zone” metric it and I related for fielding range is described in http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/totalzone-takes-on-the-minors/. It has lots of caveats, especially for outfielders, due to small sample size (at least a 2 year average would be better), poor data quality, and thus far unaccounted for ball park effects. Gose and Gillies both were above average on the road. The total zone article does say it works better for infielders and shows Freddy Galvis’s total zone rating to be +20 runs, the second best fielding shortstop in the minor leagues.

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  44. I did not vote for Savery, but seem to like him more than most of the posters on this site. I think he deserves credit for battling through, while clearly not having his best stuff. He still managed to make pitches to get through innings. A positive is that in 39 innings of AAA, he did not give up a home run. He also faced some pretty good prospects throughout the Eastern League. The real question is arm strength. If it returns, he could move up, if not he is a bust with LOOGY upside at best – which is not enough from a 1st rounder.

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  45. i think that his upside is already somewhere around loogy upside already. I just don’t thnik that he has the stuff at this point, or the control. he’s done litterally nothing other than show a low home run rate.

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  46. Gose vs. Gillies is on hold to the end of the year. Did Gillies get on because of battered pitchers or is for real? Or does Gose step up? That is one of few fun battles with year.

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  48. Maybe i was dreaming but Salvery was around 87-88 miles per hour walked a lot of guys showed nothing. so if he is the 20 th best prospect law was right are system should be 24th or worst.

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  49. ****Carpenter is not 1 year older than Savery. They were born in 1985.
    Carpenter: 6′3, 230, May, 1985
    Joe Savery: 6′3, 215, November, 1985****

    In baseball terms, that makes Carpenter a year older.

    2010 will be Carpenter’s Age 25 season and Savery’s Age 24 season…

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  50. For how Law ranks systems the Phillies would rank low now. They do not have much in high A through AAA, which is the area he seems to focus on for his rankings. Savery being a top 30 prospect makes that point. The fact I voted for Pettibone, who is all projection, shows we are thin for Law’s rankings.

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  51. I would always take pitching over a bunch of OF’s with ‘Tools’ (Can we just put Collier/Dugan/Hudson all together say #22 & hope 1 turns out) … Based on potential upside -Shreve RHP and Flande LHP stand out… yet Carpenter may be the 5th starter this spring… When in doubt go with the LHP….

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  52. Time to put Flande on the board here at 21. Vote for the lefty who showed he’s a winner in the 2008 GCL championship.

    Nothing teaches you how to win like winning. You can’t simulate a championship series. Yohan stepped up and got the job done so he deserves the nod here. He had 10 K and 1 BB in 6.2 innings of that 2008 postseason. Small sample size but it works for me.

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  53. Flande’s K/9 is not impessive. He is left handed, has decent control and a good change-up so he will probably have a MLB career. He does not have great upside, but he is a better prospect than some already on the list.

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  54. Savery won’t be a loogy because, a far as I can tell from watching him and perusing his stats, he’s not particularly effective against lefties–sort of average against both sides of the plate.

    He needs his 93 mph fastball to return to be anything. He’s really a joke at #20 without it.

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  55. Voted for Flande again. Feel he has slipped to far down the list. While I don’t feel the same extreme hatred for Savery as the rest of the posters, do think that Flande, Pettibone, Shreve should be ranked above him.

    Also want to renew my push to get Matt Way added to the list. Putting his issues about velocity aside, you can’t ignore the numbers he put up. Over 7 strikeouts to walks between Williamsport and Lakewood show he has the control he needs to get outs.

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  56. Still a good list with some huge arms in Schreve and Pettibone along with potential 5 toolers in Dugan, Hudson, and Castro. Not bad. Agreed that Savery doesn’t belong on the top 30. He has no velo, command or a plus pitch, don’t get it.

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  58. Matt Way suffers from the same issue that Joe Savery profits from here. The drafting of Savery was praised and he has been pushed, so guys are holding on. The drafting of Matt Way was ridiculed here, so it will take some work for Way to look like a prospect.

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  59. From Baseball Intellect’s Newsletter (which is free, hence the copying):

    Jon Pettibone | Philadelphia Phillies | RHP | Age – 19

    Pettibone doesn’t have the arm strength or upside of some of Philly’s more highly regarded pitching prospects, but he’s a guy to watch for a couple reasons.

    1. He’s young for his level with a projectable body

    2. He has three potential average or better pitches and projects out to be a starter

    The problem is that two of those pitches are still in development right now. The fastball currently is clocked in the upper 80’s – low 90’s with good tail and life on the pitch. The change-up has potential and he shows a good feel for throwing it, but it’s inconsistent. Pettibone also has a slurvy breaking ball that is a below average offering at the moment.

    Pettibone’s mechanics are a mix bag. He’s a tall-and-fall pitcher with a slow tempo, which I don’t typically prefer and his arm action is a little loopy as well though I’m sure it helps on the pitch’s movement. However, he does firm up his front side well, which lends itself to good control.

    Pettibone has a lot of development ahead of him, but he projects to be a back of the rotation starter if everything goes right.

    Grade – C
    ETA – 2014

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  60. Will
    I like the part that says “low 90’s with good tail and life on the pitch”. The gun can’t measure movement or presentation.
    If you get people out then you are a pitcher PERIOD.

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