Looking ahead to the Rule 5 draft

The Rule 5 draft will take place next month at the winter meetings, and its almost that time to look at who needs to be protected, who might be available, and everything else involved. The Phillies, by virtue of another excellent regular season, will be picking at the back end of the first round unless they pull off a trade and move up. Check below the fold for more…

The Phillies official site does not seem to place much importance on regular updates, so a number of guys who were eligible for free agency are still on the roster. This should be accurate

C (1) – Ruiz
INF (4) – Howard, Utley, Rollins, Dobbs
OF (6) – Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, Francisco, Mayberry, Berry
SP (11) – Bastardo, Blanton, Carpenter, Hamels, Happ, Kendrick, Lee, Moyer, Naylor, Flande, Jesus Sanchez
RP (8) – Escalona, Lidge, Madson, Mathieson, Romero, Zagurski, Condrey, Durbin

That’s a total of 30, however you have to leave open spaces for guys who will be signed/re-signed for the active 25 man roster. I updated to add the guys I forgot. Durbin and Condrey are arbitration eligible but could be non-tendered. For now they stay.

As far as I can tell, these are the guys we would need to add. Remember, players who were drafted out of college are required to be added after their 4th season, guys out of high school after their 5th. I’m not 100% sure on this list, but I think its right

Joe Bisenius (This was his 5th season, so he should have 1 more to go, but he was bad this year anyway)
Tuffy Gosewich (2009 was his 5th season, college guy, same deal as Bisenius I believe)
Gus Milner
Tim Kennelly (I think he’s earned it, and I’d hate to see him left unprotected, though I doubt he’d stick in the majors at this point)
Pat Overholt (5 years, 1 more to go I believe)
Michael Durant
Derrick Mitchell
Joel Naughton (would like to keep him around if we have the roster spot, but won’t be a huge loss)
Daniel Brauer
Darren Byrd (starting to come on the last 2 years, but it might be too late, though I doubt he’s taken)
Edgar Garcia (probably the biggest name on the list, I almost think they have to keep him, as I bet a team could stash him as the 25th man in a bullpen)

Did I miss anyone? Garcia seems like a logical guy to add if you don’t really need that 40 man roster spot. Even if he cant make it as a starter, he’d still be a decent arm to consider for the bullpen while he’s cheap.

30 thoughts on “Looking ahead to the Rule 5 draft

  1. Isn’t Moyer under contract next year? I think Condrey and Durbin are also both arbitration eligible. That would bring you up to 30.

  2. Do you think Garcia has the upside to warrant a team stashing him for an entire year on their 25-man roster? I can’t imagine the scouting reports from this year, or from the AFL, have been too impressive.

    Agreed that I’d definitely protect him and Kennelly if there’s room, but I can see how leaving them unprotected is a calculated gamble that makes a good deal of sense.

  3. The Phils team, as currently built and managed, could really take a 25th guy and stash him on the team. Particularly a middle infielder with good speed and defense. Charile might not love the move, but he sure didn’t make playing Bruntlett a priority. Get a guy that can start in a pinch for Rollins/Utley and act as a pinch runner, plus it could be looked at as chance to add some new talent to the farm system if they need to send him down after 1 year.

  4. I think teams that use the 25th roster spot to stash a very young player are usually non-contenders, organizations without much talent in the minor league system, or both. The Phillies are neither, so I doubt they go that route.

    That said, we didn’t get very much out of the back of the roster in 2009, so I’m not opposed to the idea in theory–I just doubt the guys who run the club see it that way.

  5. If you read Schwimmer’s reports it really makes it look like Brauer is going back to school to get his MBA. I doubt he’ll be around next spring or much past that date.

    Anyway, on the protected list, there are many “who cares” guys, such as Naylor and Zagurski. This tells me that many of our best prospects are still relatively young, which, in the long run, is a good thing.

    Two players of note. Does anyone have scouting reports on Garcia or Sanchez? How hard do they throw? What kind of upside do they have? Sanchez is of particular interest because he came out of nowhere.

  6. One other “stream of consciousness” comment. Having watched Kendrick at the end of this year, he is the one guy that I think has the ability to come back and really be a surprise. He has command of more pitches now (not just a sinker pitcher) and he throws a couple of miles an hour faster. His prior big league experience is also critical. He earns big kudos in my book for willingly accepting his demotion, putting his nose to the grindstone and improving his game. It wouldn’t surprise me if he developed as a solid no. 4 or 5 starter. A true, solid, inning-eater – the type of guy who pads your win column and takes pressure off the bullpen. Here’s to wishing you success, Kyle.

  7. With 10 spots open alot can still happen. I cannot see why another player won’t be protected like a Garcia or Kennelly.

    I think those 10 spots will fill up like so:
    1. 3B
    2. Back up Catcher
    3. Utility Player
    4. Replacement for Stairs
    5. Park or his Replacement
    6. Eyre or his replacement
    7. Rule 5 pick
    8. 2nd Rule 5 pick
    9. Garcia
    10. Kennelly

    I believe if we sign 2 more relievers 1 of either Durbin or Condrey will eventaully be non-tendered creating an additional spot. Seems like plenty of room.

  8. Philliesphan — I think the big guy you’re missing is Monasterios

    Section 113 — I don’t think the Phillies should be taking one Rule 5 pick, let alone two. Drafting where they will draft and with the depleted Rule 5 ranks caused by the recent rule change, the odds of finding someone who can stick on the major league roster is close to nil. Given the choice of keeping Monasterios and Gosewich or Garcia and being able to keep them in the minors for 3 more seasons, vs exposing them to Rule 5 in order to roll the dice on some other system’s guys, I’ll stick with what we’ve got.

  9. I agree with Anonymous that Monasterios should be on this list and probably protected. In addition, I believe that Harold Garcia and Vlad de los Santos and rule 5 eligible, with the former actually showing some talent.

  10. will either derrick mitchell mike durant or tim kennelly get picked up if not protected. also will vlad or garcia be in the draft

  11. Guys I figure are eligible to be drafted not shown: Carlos Monasterios, Harold Garcia, Freddy Ballestes, and a maybe on Siulman LeBron (note: born in the same town as Edgar Garcia about a month and a half apart). Somebody said Vladimir DeLosSantos, didn’t check that, might be a good one.

    As far as the 40 man goes, they may not be inclined to sign any or many free agents till after the rule 5 draft, anyhow. They can certainly take 3 or 4 guys in the rule 5 draft, because it is a free look, The rule change was not recent, but the system has come into line after the change, so they will have a better look at who they might want. They believe they have little needing to be protected at the top reaches of the farm system, and that case can be made. If they sign some great free agents later they can always return a rule 5 guy or 2 or drop one of the holdovers on the 40 man.

  12. I don’t see the problem with having 2 rule 5 picks. I mean the Phills lose some guys every yr. We’ll survive. The chances of ore thn 2 guys being taken off our rosters is slim. If we lose a E. Garcia or a Santos won’t hurt out the farm. f the Phills can grab a plaer with upside at a position of need than isn’t it worth sacrificing a Santos or Garcia or a Kennelly?

  13. “will be picking at the back end of the first round unless they pull off a trade and move up”.

    You can’t trade and move up in the MLB baseball draft……

  14. You can in the Rule 5 draft though, which is the topic of discussion. Trades happen all the time, although I believe it may be more like Team A calls Team B and says “we’ll give you X if you draft Player Y.” Then Team B makes the pick and completes the trade.

  15. does the minor league additions to the 40 man have to be made by tomorrow? there must be a deadline of some sort,with the Rule 5 coming in December. If so I would think they may have added who they intend to add.

  16. “will be picking at the back end of the first round unless they pull off a trade and move up”.

    You can’t trade and move up in the MLB baseball draft……

    Not in the Rule 4 Draft (the college and amateur draft in June). But you’re allowed to make trades during the Rule 5 draft, though most that I can recall involve Team A paying Team B cash to select a player that wouldn’t otherwise get to Team A’s spot in the draft (a la Josh Hamilton a few years ago).

  17. Didn’t see anything about adding players, so looks like that is it. 30 guys, don’t recall that low a number before. Maybe they plan to sign some free agents before the Rule 5 draft and maybe try a few rule 5 picks as well. It will be seen if any go in the Major League portion of the rule 5 draft.

  18. I’d be very surprised if Harold Garcia is required to be added to the 40 and isn’t. Can anyone confirm his status? He’s a little older but he might have major league ability at a position the organization is very weak at. As for Edgar Garcia, his stock plummeted quite a bit this year.

  19. MLB site this morning lists all teams protected number. Phillies protected the fewest with 30. Boston next fewest at 32. Many of what are considered bad teams are protecting 40. Mets scheduled to pick first, currently, with what would have been around 7th or 8th.

  20. Of all the teams in the NL, I think the Phils could most easily live with protecting 2 or 3 rule V picks, especially if they don’t trade Ben Francisco during the offseason. The Phils have almost a full starting line-up of 140+ games per year players. Plus, this is pretty much the same roster that won a world series with So Taguchi and Eric Brunlett on them.
    They could easily stash at least one middle infield prospect.

  21. Tim Kennelly arguably is developing into the best young offensive player in Australia. After the first 9 games of the Claxton Shield weekend tournament there he is hitting .400, 14 for 35, with a .1205 OPS. He leads the national tournament in homers with 3 and rbi’s 9 and is 3 for 3 in stolen bases. Interestingly he has moved from right field to play third base in the games this weekend against Queensland.

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