What to expect in 2012: Trevor May

2012 Expectations

Since things are a bit slow, I figured we would try something new. Every few days, I’m going to start a new post in what will be a series looking at a bunch of our key prospects heading in to 2012, and what we think, both individually and as a group, the players will do. We’ll discuss where they are likely to start the season, things they need to work on, and what expectations are for each guy in the new season. Keep these posts on point, and if you want to ramble on about something random, use the most recent open discussion post.

That said, we’ll start with RHP Trevor May. Through prospect graduations and trades, and also his strong bouneback season, May is now the Phillies top prospect heading in to 2012. A lot is expected of him, and the jump to AA will be a big test. When he moved up to Clearwater the first time, he struggled mightily and needed a tune-up back at Lakewood. The move to AA from A+ is maybe the sharpest in the minors (you could argue short season to Low A) in terms of the quality of competition, and the learning curve can be steep. Hitters are more experienced and disciplined, pitchers have better command, and it helps to separate the men from the boys. May’s career grid looks like this (click to enlarge)

It won’t come as a surprise to you, but I think the biggest key for May in 2012 is fastball command. He can get away with mistakes against inexperienced A ball hitters, especially up in the zone, but more disciplined hitters in AA will lay off that pitch up and out of the zone. If May pounds the bottom half of the zone with his fastball and can set up his curve, he’ll be fine. If he doesn’t throw strikes, the results could be ugly. 2012 is a big year for him. He made stride with his command in 2011, and he needs to build on it in 2012.

Whats your take? How do you think he will fare in Reading?

Phillies Minor League Free Agents

Other Stuff

Today Baseball America published the list of minor league free agents. The article did a pretty good job of explaining exactly what a 6 year free agent is, so check it out here. Here are the free agents from the Phillies organization:

Philadelphia Phillies (31)
RHP: Brian Bass (AAA), Eddie Bonine (AAA), Nate Bump (AAA), Dave Bush (AAA), Joe Esposito (AA)
LHP: Ryan Edell (AAA), Ryan Feierabend (AAA), Derrick Loop (AA), Tommy Palica (Hi A), Juan Perez (AAA), Les Walrond (AA)
C: Tim Kennelly (AA), Torre Langley (Hi A), Jeff Lanning (Lo A)
1B: Tagg Bozied (AAA), Jeff Larish (AAA)
2B: Josh Barfield (AAA), Ozzie Chavez (AA), Paco Figueroa (AA), Kevin Frandsen (AAA), Fidel Hernandez (AA), Steve Singleton (AA)
OF: Brent Clevlen (AA), Terry Evans (AA), Chris Frey (AA), Cyle Hankerd (Hi A), Chris Lubanski (AA), Scott Podsednik (AAA), Mike Spidale (AA), Rich Thompson (AAA), Delwyn Young (AAA)

I expected to see Brandon Moss, Derrick Mitchell, John Suomi, and Tuffy Gosewich listed so I’m assuming they have resigned with the Phillies which means they never hit the free agent market but that’s just speculation on my part.

Additionally, Dane Sardinha was previously announced as a free agent and the Phillies have reportedly re-signed 40-man roster cast-offs Pete Orr and Drew Naylor to minor league deals.

Anyone on the list who you think needs to be back next year?

Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10 list

Top Prospect Lists

The list is free for all to read here. The scouting reports are subscriber only content, so don’t copy/paste. I’ll summarize in one sentence the reports and I’ll provide my own thoughts on the list after the jump.

01. Trevor May, RHP – Raw stuff still good, added a slider in 2011, now a 4 pitch guy, repeating his delivery better (improved command/control)
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP – Velo down, changeup/curveball both very good considering his age/experience
03. Sebastian Valle, C – Good athlete, improving defense
04. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP – Velo is up (now 90-94 touching 95) and has taken to the 2 seam fastball
05. Phillippe Aumont, RHP – Command still an issue, and apparently so is his attitude (first time I’ve heard that)
06. Freddy Galvis, SS – You’ve heard it all before, great glove, weak stick
07. Justin De Fratus, RHP – Slider has improved
08. Brody Colvin, RHP – Questions about his delivery/mechanics leading to health issues
09. Jiwan James, OF – Superb defender, better hitter lefthanded, may scrap switch hitting soon
10. Maikel Franco, 3B – Unconventional swing but great bat speed, not a good athlete but could stay at 3B or move to C

My immediate reaction below

Continue reading Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10 list →

Open Discussion and mailbag questions

Daily Discussion

Hi. Sorry for the infrequent updates of late, but I’ve had a bunch of stuff going on that has been occupying my time. I’m working on a few things, and I hope to have some of it ready to go this weekend, so look for that. Now that we’re in the offseason, there will still be things to discuss, but the posts might be a bit less frequent here, at least until we start doing the Reader Top 30. I’ll try and keep putting up semi-regular open discussion posts for you to discuss whatever is on your mind. I’ll have some AFL thoughts, some Rule 5 thoughts, and other stuff.

Also, its been a while, so I figured I’d do an old fashioned mailbag. If you have questions, email them to phuturephillies at gmail dot com with “Mailbag” in the email title. And I’ll take some of them and provide the answers here in a new post. If you post questions here, I won’t reply to them. Send them via email. Thank you in advance. And now, the time is yours, discuss whatever you’d like.

Arizona Fall League Update, 30 October 2011

8. Arizona Fall League

Here is your latest update. As a reminder, the AFL is very offense-friendly. That said, the Phillies offensive players have been disappointing, and if they were looking at Overbeck’s AFL performance to determine if he was worth a spot on the 40 man roster, the answer might be no. The AFL is a small sample, and while maybe teams shouldn’t place a big emphasis on it, many of them do. I’m less concerned about Gillies, simply because he hasn’t been healthy in like 2 years, and he’s trying to shake the rust off. Simply being on the field and playing is a big step for him, and I think its a no brainer that he will be protected. Cloyd is missing bats, but his other numbers haven’t been overwhelming. Check below the fold for the player pages

Continue reading Arizona Fall League Update, 30 October 2011 →

Phillies ask to have Freddy Galvis sent home early

Galvis, Freddy

As noted in this article, the Phillies are asking that Freddy Galvis be released from his winter ball team on December 1, citing his workload in 2011 and also his minor wrist injury he recently suffered and came back from. There are two obvious explanations here. The Phillies are legitimately worried about burning him out at a young age or they are worried he won’t be 100% fresh in spring training, where they’ll expect him to compete for the starting SS position with Rollins out the door. Considering Galvis has logged 500+ AB in 3 of his last 4 seasons, I’m not sure the “burnout” explanation fits. While we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves, this does seem to be an indication that the Phillies think he has a shot to be part of the team in 2012, possibly even from Day 1.

Thinking about prospects who will make it to the bigs in 2012

Daily Discussion

Here’s our new discussion topic. Which prospects will crack the big league roster this year, and how much time will they log? I figure we can also discuss guys who have a cup of coffee under their belt already and who figure to be more prominent players in 2012.

Domonic Brown, OF – Brown had a rollercoaster 2011, and his stock seems to have dipped, but the raw ability is still there. His defense is obviously the biggest obstacle standing between him and a big league job. If the Phillies do not sign a 1B this winter, the presumption may be that Mayberry will play 1B in Howard’s absence, which may open up LF for Brown. Of course, the entire offseason is ahead of us, so nothing is assured or known, and Amaro has spoken of getting Brown a full season in AAA in 2012, which could be a smokescreen.

Michael Schwimer, RHP – Schwim got a brief cup of coffee in 2011 and had mixed results. He showed potential, and when he threw strikes he was tough, but he does have to sharpen his control and hone his approach against lefties. With the Phillies figuring to go with a young bullpen (outside of whoever they sign to close), I figure he’ll have a shot at a bullpen job in spring training and should spend a good chunk of time in the majors.

Justin De Fratus, RHP – If Schwimer got a cup, I suppose De Fratus had a sip. Like Schwimer, mixed results. His velocity was only 91-92, but you could definitely see the swing and miss potential of his slider, and the velocity may have just been him tiring out at the end of a long season. Like Schwim, he should have the chance to grab a spot in spring training. Like Schwim, he figures to spend a good chunk of the season in the bigs.

Continue reading Thinking about prospects who will make it to the bigs in 2012 →

AFL Update, 23 October 2011

8. Arizona Fall League

The update is in pictorial form, below the jump. Discuss as you see fit.

Continue reading AFL Update, 23 October 2011 →

Open Discussion and upcoming schedule

Scheduling

Hi all. I’ve had little time to devote here recently and something of moderate importance has come up outside of my love of the Phillies, so the posts may be a tad sparse for the next few weeks. My plan is to do a few more AFL updates, with the next one this weekend, and then a few other pieces before the end of the month. I’m planning on starting the Reader Top 30 at the beginning of November or so. We’ll take our time, the posts always spawn good discussion and great point/counter points. If there is anything you’d like to see on the site moving forward, please email me. I can’t promise you I’ll be able to deliver on anything, depending on my availability, but I’ll try. I’m also re-working the SONAR scores, which is taking me some time, but I’ll be rolling out the new, modified version before next season starts. So if you have something you want me to cover, something you think would make the site better, or whatever else, please email, because I don’t have as much time to read through the comments here as I’d like. And thank you again for your continued support.

Open Discussion: 40 man roster decisions

Other Stuff

I wanted to throw this one out there. The rules under the CBA state that college players must be protected after 4 seasons (anyone age 19 and older when drafted) and high school kids 5 years after they are drafted. By my quick estimation, that would mean all high school kids taken in the 2007 draft have to be protected, and all college kids from the 2008 draft have to go on the 40 man roster. Which guys fall under those classifications?

Tyson Gillies (25th round, 2006)
Travis Mattair (2nd round, 2007)
Phillippe Aumont (1st round, 2007)
Jiwan James (22nd round, 2007)
Sebastian Valle (FA, 2007)
Colby Shreve (6th round, 2008)
Cody Overbeck (9th round, 2008)
BJ Rosenberg (13th round, 2008)
Tyler Cloyd (18th round, 2008)

Did I miss anyone?

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that a bunch of these guys are currently working it in the Arizona Fall League. The league is a double edged sword, allowing the parent club to get one last look to determine if the prospect deserves a 40 man spot, but it also gives high profile looks to other teams who may want to snatch a guy up in the Rule 5 draft come December.