As noted in this article, the Phillies are asking that Freddy Galvis be released from his winter ball team on December 1, citing his workload in 2011 and also his minor wrist injury he recently suffered and came back from. There are two obvious explanations here. The Phillies are legitimately worried about burning him out at a young age or they are worried he won’t be 100% fresh in spring training, where they’ll expect him to compete for the starting SS position with Rollins out the door. Considering Galvis has logged 500+ AB in 3 of his last 4 seasons, I’m not sure the “burnout” explanation fits. While we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves, this does seem to be an indication that the Phillies think he has a shot to be part of the team in 2012, possibly even from Day 1.
208 thoughts on “Phillies ask to have Freddy Galvis sent home early”
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Regardless of whatever else happens, Galvis should be the #3 shortstop on the organization’s depth chart next year, presuming they don’t choose to carry both Valdez and Martinez next year, with their duplicative skill sets. If Rollins is back, I suppose Martinez could go to the minors, but I think it’s more likely that they non-tender Valdez since he’s arbitration eligible and he’s eminently replaceable. So, that would leave Galvis one Rollins injury away from being on the major league club. Wouldn’t that justify an abundance of caution about fatigue/this wrist injury, whatever it is?
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Agree ACA. Even if a yet to be known FA is our starting SS come April. Personally, I’d like to see Galvis get a full season at AAA, barring necessity due to injury on the big club. This has to have been a trying year for Galvis, both physically and mentally. Let him shut it down for a few months
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‘SHUT IT DOWN FOR A FEW MONTHS’!….there ain’t no shut downs in baseball…baseball is for men…..have him suck it up.
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For what purpose? So he could ‘begin’ his 2012 season having played 12+ consecutive months? Regardless, you aren’t man enough to make that determination
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just having some fun with you Steve……you have to see “League of Their Own’ with Tom Hanks to get the quasi-reference.
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Missed the reference but was also only having fun in my response. Enjoy
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Be careful what you wish for. Valdez is a massive upgrade over Martinez who does not even belong in the majors. Valdez has been a tremendous upgrade over past utility guys.
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Eh, there’s a reason Valdez is 33 and about to have his first Arb year. He’s basically a 0.0 WAR player (on average) for his career. He’s fine as a backup, but he’s very, very easily replaceable.
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Love “duplicative.”
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A good move! Here hoping that J-Roll’s time in Philly has come to an end, as much as we’ve enjoyed his time as THE shortstop for the team. Time to start the needed youth movement for this franchise. Keeping J-Roll–with his expected injuries during the next succeeding seasons–would be a big mistake.
The big team started to get a little younger with Pence. Add in Mayberry. Find a younger backup catcher. Find a worthy 3rd baseman. Expect one or two young relievers to join the pen.
There is more than years younger, there’s also the hunger of younger guys seeking success and a MLB career; such hunger is less in the veterans who have settled in their MLB careers.
Galvis should spend the rest of the off-season further building his strength like he did last off-season. His fielding leaves little doubt; his offense would be fine to settle–at first–for a OBA of .330 which would equal J-Rolls’ of the past several years.
Offering arb and a two year deal would encourage J-Rolls’ =signing elsewhere…and a good first round draft choice since he would most likely sign with a competitive team, not a second rate club. With Madson also going (price too high) we would then have a group of fresh faces to re-energize the team. And, another good draft choice for Madson’s non-acceptance of an offered arb figure. Lidge gone. No arb offer to him. Oswalt only to be re-signed if the price is low; offer arb to him? No, because arb would allow only a 20% cut from his prior LARGE paycheck. Oswalt gone.
Worley, Blanton, KK to compete for the # 4 & 5 rotation spot. Money saved from Madson & Rollins gone used to get that 3rd baseman AND closer AND OFer for left field…since Brown is not to be trusted yet.
Remember, after signing Hamels to a long term deal, they’d still have the top 3 pitchers. Add that youth and hunger and ’12 could be a “developmental” season with likely good rewards.
Otherwise, the team will be left in the hind dust of the other, better, and hungrier teams…like Atlanta.
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You know who has a young, hungry club? Houston. I think .330 OBP for Galvis is pie in the sky if he plays from day 1 for the big club. Getting younger for the sake of getting younger is pointless, if it does not make you better. I see no chance Galvis is better next year than Rollins or Reyes (maybe not even better than Furcal, at least offensively). The same people who say to dump Rollins and Madson will be the first ones to call for Ruben’s head when the team misses the playoffs next year (which could happen either way).
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I will be the LAST one to complain if they miss the ’12 playoffs…for the sake of NOT fielding a team similar to the House of David players, i.e., they who played with their grey beards in place. And continuing for the next couple seasons. A poor result.
There is little benefit in NOT preparing for the future. Considering only ’12 is obviously short-sighted. The truth is that J-Roll CANNOT be depended upon to play 150 games. In fact, to expect him suddenly to become an uninjured player for 162 games/season for ’12, ’13. ’14, etc. is a fantasy. Yet, paying him $10 million/year (at least) is a terrible way to use their resources when there are gaping holes at 3rd base, left field (Mayberry to play 1st base–Brown can’t be trusted)), backup catcher, and closer.
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Interesting that you want to get younger but state Brown can’t be trusted. How quickly will you turn on Galvis and the young relievers? Remember the growing pains for Bowa and Schmidt? Both would be run out of town on a rail today.
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Brown’s rookie #’s, across the board, are better than Schmidt’s. For whatever, that’s worth. I agree the Phillies should look to the future, but I see it as highly unlikely this team can’t win the division next year with Rollins/Reyes. Besides, backup Catchers are cheap, the Phils can live with Brown’s growing pains provided they don’t have Steve Jeltz at Short Stop, there aren’t any great 3rd base options available, even by trade and there should be enough money for a closer, even if they take a chance on Joe Nathan or K-Rod or another risky option.
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I meant to include in there that you can prepare for the future without flushing the present down the toilet. It will be 2-3 years before there is a likely good internal candidate to take over 3rd or SS, so in the interim, bridge that gap with a quality veteran. And lastly, I expect no shortstop to play 162 games, that’s ridiculous. Get a good utility guy to give rest to Rollins, Polly and Utley and the team will be fine. They did fine the last 3 years without any of those 3 playing all 162 games, I assume they could go another 2 years like that.
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Wow, a House of David reference! I love it
– Jeff
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Don’t forget those supplementals. Personally I would like to see Madson back, but not at 10mm per. PP’s website would blow up next summer if we had 5 picks in the 1st rd and supplemental
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I think your expectations of the offseason are highly unrealistic.
Where are they going to get that 3B? Do you expect them to make another blockbuster trade (aka David Wright)? There certainly aren’t any options in free agency. Maybe Aramis Ramirez but he definitely doesn’t fit the “getting younger” plan.
Younger backup catcher? You realize that quality catchers are hard to come by, right? There’s no reason to go young there. Just find a veteran to hit about 120 times a season. The Phillies went 27-8 when Brian Schneider started last season. Part of that is because of Worley but the Phillies provided a lot of run support for Vance in spite of Schneider’s bat. This is not really a place that needs an upgrade. You just get a new guy every couple of years. No need to go young.
The “hunger” issue is silly. Do you really think Mayberry wanted to win the World Series more than Ibanez? I’d argue that a 10-year vet who doesn’t have a ring would be more “hungry” than some young guy who likely thinks that he’ll have several shots at a title. Of course that hunger means nothing if you can’t produce. My point is that I don’t think young players are any more motivated to win than older players are.
I don’t see any reason to worry about the future. If there’s ever a point when the Phillies stop trying to go after high level talent then I’ll be worried. As long as they keep restocking the farm and paying high salaries the team should be good. A division series loss to a team that may win the World Series shouldn’t be a reason to panic.
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younger back-up catcher…Yank’s Francisco Cervelli may be available in a trade, if he recovers from his 4th concussion.
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The ROI for a backup anything is fairly low. I’m not about to lose sleep over who’s going to catch every 10 days or so.
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So you are extremely confident that a 33-year old catcher, as is Chooch, will give you 145+ healthy games! Interesting…then I guess Kratz’ is your man.
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So much is wrong with your Galvis predictions. I don’t doubt at all that he could be at least an average to above average defender in the majors. Where you get crazy is your expectations of him as a hitter. His best season ever in the minor leagues was last year a .278/.324/.392. That’s his best season ever. You expect him to have a .330 OBP in the majors when the best he’s done so far facing mediocre at best pitching is .324 in a season. Is it possible? I suppose. Is it probable? No there is less than a 5% chance it happens. You value youth way too much. You look for youth when you’re a terrible team. The Phillies are anything but a terrible team. You can’t say oh we’re built to win now but forget that let’s just bring in the young guys. Now there are legitimate reasons to get rid of Rollins but part of that plan should not be start Galvis in the majors in 2012. They are setting him and the team up for failure if that is their plan. In the end talent wins out. Those young and hungry Braves sure keep showing the Phillies who is boss.
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I’m all for resiging those guys but at the right price, not what they’re sure to be asking. If Jimmy comes down (which he should) than I have no problem bringing him back.
I don’t see Madson returning. Personally, I’d love for them to throw some serious money at Closer. I don’t trust Bastardo, DeFratus, Aumont, etc. I don’t like the idea of Nathan either. Definitely one of Madson, Bell, Papelbon needs to be the closer. My #1 choice is Papelbon.
Personally, I’d love to see Jose Reyes in a Phillies uniform. He or Rollins are going to miss some time anyway, Reyes is 100% the better player when healthy.
They’re going to get younger in left field anyway with Mayberry.
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Closer is the most overrated skill in baseball. A closers job is to get 3 outs with no runners on base. No pitcher who CANT do that belongs in the majors. Wasting money on a marquee closer is one of those “baseball moves” that people make because “baseball people” don’t actually understand baseball.
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didn’t you also say that in October 2008?
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Think the Rangers believe that today?
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Who cares? If they had played someone capable of fielding a baseball at First in Game 6, they’d be World Series champs. No pitcher is capable of a 0.00 FIP, even Mariano Rivera has blown saves. More often that not Feliz was a good pitcher, cherry picking one instance to support an argument is dishonest and, to me, shows how weak the point is.
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Actually, Cormican, the reason the Cardinals even made the playoffs was a direct result of them solving their bullpen problems, especially their closer situation. They had 11 blown saves between April and June and 6 from July-October. The Cardinals turnaround was fueled by the moves they made to retool the backend of their bulllpen in July/August.
But its not about cherrypicking one instance to make the point. The facts are that teams who cannot finish off wins because of a weak bullpen don’t win championships. The Giants knew this in 2010 and the Phillies found out the opposite in 1993 with Mitch Williams.
Yes, no closer will be perfect but its better to have a solid performer at the end of the game than not.
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Couldn’t it also mean that they don’t want him to risk further injury? Or just be a little tired at the start of the minor league season and basically lose development time?
Maybe that’s what you meant by “burn out” but it sounds like you’re talking about burning out in a more drastic, permanent way. This really doesn’t seem like a big deal to me and I wouldn’t read anything into it as far as Rollins goes.
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I agree with you. They are probably just trying to be careful with his injury knowing that he may be important to the team this year. This is not a big deal nor is it likely an indicator of anything else. The conversation that was had in the front office probably went like this.
“Did you hear Freddy Galvis injured his wrist in winter ball?” ”
Really, was it bad?”
“I don’t think so – they say he will play again in a few days – but you never know.”
“I agree, let’s not risk anything. Have him sent home and have somebody we trust look at it.”
“That makes sense. Will do.”
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Ruben said it has more to do with his off season program.
The injury isn’t a big deal, lots of players have them. (Jimmy had the same thing last year).
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They are also letting him play another 5 weeks. So he gets 100+ AB for experience. Then goes home to get on an off-season program for 3 months. This probably has little to do with the injury and much more about the Phillies have a specific plan for Galvis. I think they realize he needs to add strength as he is never going to be a speed player. He needs to become a guy that can hit .270 with 10-15 HR to be a major league starter.
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Freddy;s s weight program should resume soon……the one he did last off-season with one of the personal trainers..
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To all who bemoan Ruben for trading the future away……it appears to be unfortunate for catcher Travis d’Arnaud who may be on the shelf for an undetermined time……tore ligaments in left thumb the other day and requires surgery.
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Not reading too much into what his role may be next season I think the Phillies recognize that Galvis is an important part of the future of this club. I think they would like to keep a close eye on him and if they had their way he would have been in the AFL or FIL working out and getting at bats under their coaches’ eyes.
I think the end goal is that if Galvis could get strong enough to hit .270 at the major league level with a little power he is at very least the first call from LHV on any SS injury.
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Matt Gelb?
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halladay has how many more years, to say dont mind not making playoffs in 12, to get younger is nuts to me. the window is still there
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I don’t think they need to have the best team on the field and I think it would be a mistake to overpay veterans in years and $$$ like Ruben has had a tendency to do, going young for the sake of getting young is a terrible idea.
Now if Jimmy gets 5 years, Jose Reyes is in the market of a $142+ million dollar contract, then using Galvis makes sense…
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“Going young” by putting Galvis at SS…is a complaint here? Ibanez again in LF w his .235 BA ?? Is THAT the plan? Don’t see Schneider coming back as 2nd catcher…a .175 BA doesn’t cut it. Or does it for you? Not me. Kratz would do…for a “change.”
Galvis in my view would be ONE move toward less grey-bearding on the Phils, and obviously would be the key to preventing the Phils giving another (Polanco, Howard, Baez, Contreras, etc.) long term expensive contract tying their hands from filling in the REAL spots that demand attention and which contract would outlive usefulness for several years!
The SS position is NOT in need of excellent offensive numbers. While Galvis plays there, he can learn to hit just as J-Roll did when he first came up. Shortstop–first of all–requires good to excellent fielding. We are not talking about Galvis playing a tradition position player that must give offensive numbers that would keep them in MLB. Galvis HAS that most important quality that the position demands. And, if you agree that J-Roll has lost some range, then Galvis plugs THAT “hole.”
Are you happy with Cholly’s love of the “dear veterans” who have come up short for 4 straight seasons…and counting. Their ’12 will have to be a different ball club offensively. Likely NO Howard for ALL of ’12. More station to station baseball with speed emphasized at least from Vic. Perhaps, even, once in a while squeeze a runner home from 3rd base.
Are you happy with Polanco in the first 8 hitters? The man is washed up. Can you visualize Polly playing 140 games with an OBA of .300 plus…which is lame…but maybe not even attainable by him. Nice utility infielder, that’s him in ’12. No? Third base MUST be answered. It’s up to Reuben to make that happen. He’s been known to have a bag of tricks…..and misdirections.
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I think that’s what people forgetting. Ibanez was a negative WAR player this year. Mayberry is going to be an improvement over him and if you can get a better third baseman, it would offset the loss of offense Galvis would provide. (that’s not me saying he’s the best option, Reyes is 100% the best option Rollins 2nd, Galvis probably third).
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No one is crying over the inevitable Raul departure. He plays hard but he just isn’t good enough. You get young where you have the talent to get young. For the Phillies right now that is in LF with a Mayberry/Brown(?) platoon and in the bullpen. You can’t compare Rollins vs Galvis like it is Raul vs someone else. Rollins is head and shoulders above Galvis and probably will be for the next 2-3 years. So go to Galvis if you want but be ready for the team to get worse. Brown, Galvis and an even older pitching staff won’t be winning any championships after the current core moves on. If you’re so eager to close the window than do so. We can battle to be .500 for the rest of the decade but hey at least the team is younger.
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That’s 3 straight seasons. Sorry. The remainder applies.
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Is there some alternate universe where the Phillies didn’t just win 100+ games and get unlucky in the playoffs?
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No Cormican! Just blow this team up! THEY SUCK! AHH ROLLINS, AHH GALVIS, MADSON, CLOSER! HOW DID IT ALL GO SO WRONG WHAT DID WE DO?!?!
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FWIW, I read today that the Phillies are the early gambling favorites for the WS next year.
I do want to make clear that, despite significantly more medium term pessimism than some people here, and a little more short term pessimism. I certainly agree that the panic over the early playoff exit was excessive to say the least, and that any big changes in the short term are likely to backfire.
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Lay your bet down now in Vegas.
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Also funny how you make fun of Polanco’s offensive ability yet this last year has been better than Galvis’ best season ever in the minors. I have no idea why you believe Galvis is pretty much a lock for a .330 OBP in the majors when he’s never done it before in the minors.
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How is J-Roll head and shoulders above Galvis when the fact is that Galvis has better range even if because J-Roll’s has declined some? Again: shortstop is a DEFENSIVE position; any offense out of it is a bonus, but it’s more important to have a guy that hits .240-250 and plays the position at a high level than a guy who hits .265 -.270 whose range is less…and whose presence on the field will be problematical throughout any multi-year deal.
Galvis plays a position that does NOT demand a lot of offense; OTOH, 3rd base IS a position you need to produce offensively. Polly vs Galvis is thus NOT comparable. Teams would be happy to have a terrific fielder/.240 hitter at shortstop with a 3rd baseman with some power and ability to knock in runs. 3rd base and shortstop are greatly different in their requirements.
Watch Polly swing: hardly enough strength left to reach the wall. Can’t take a walk. Very low OBA for a guy–added to J-Roll–that forms a duo of not-on-base guys. A lousy way to fashion a MLB lineup!
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Just because it’s not a position where good offense is a must doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take it if you can get it. The dropoff from Rollins to Galvis doesn’t include only OBP either. There would also be a dropoff in power and base stealing. Rollins has his flaws but it’s very easy to make a case that he’s still a top 5-7 shortstop in the majors. The gap between Rollins and Galvis is likely bigger than you realize.
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Get rid of the likely.
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Galvis does not have better range than Rollins. I have watched him for years and he has sacrificed some arm over that time. Jimmy still has the stronger arm and is faster. Galvis is very quick with an acrobatic flair.
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I think we need to create a new award for lousy analysis and predictions. We’ll call it the Marfis award. We can give Art the first one for his insane argument about Galvis.
Here’s the irony for me – I am one of the few people around here who thinks – thought – that Glavis, while a significant downgrade from Rollins, might actually be the best of some poor options at SS next year (Rollins wants too many years, FA otions don’t thrill, other internal options stink. But reading Art’s posts make me LESS enthused at the thought that Galvis might be rushed into a regular role.
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How about a reward for refusing to consider arguments without making personal commentary. Ad hominum attacks prove only that you are incapable of discussing things rationally and thus must post personal attacks. You lose.
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Sign J-Roll…and the team’s name needs to be changed: The Philadelphia Greybeards.
J-Rolls’ base-stealing is really a thing of the past. Watching him run in the last 3 months of the season tells those who watch that running has become a well-disguised trial for him.
Do not mistake me. I have considered him my favorite Phillie over his years here; but at the same time he should be looked at realistically as the years pile up. It is time to move on…and we’ll still be left with fond memories of his salad days in Philly. Galvis can do the job required of that position.
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Larry You know we are best buds now so please make your points without personal attacks. It takes away from any points you are trying to make
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He wouldn’t be larrym without nasty personal attacks, that’s how he rolls
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Rollins is still strong in the field…actually one of the better fielding SS in the game ..he only had 7 errors at it wasn’t like his range is drastically reduced…his running game is still there as he had 30 sb…doing better on the base paths then Victorino (he seems more hesitant without Lopes). I agree we do need to go in a younger direction but I think we need to keep Rollins..not yet sold on Galvis.
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JStroll rules.
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Art I have to question if you watch the games at this point. I’d have to question that Galvis’ range is significantly better or even better at all than Rollins’. But what we do know is his batting ability is a lot worse. Also nevermind the fact that Rollins was the leading base stealer on the team. His running ability has declined but he’s still the only true threat to steal a bag on the Phils because Vic has reverted back to not being able to harness his speed at all. Polly’s OBP is terrible? Then I guess Galvis’ OBP is even worse because Polly’s was better by a good bit this year especially when you factor in major leagues vs AA/AAA. If I’m being honest I’d rather start Martinez or Valdez at short in 2012 over Galvis and I have a pretty strong dislike of Martinez and Valdez’s DPs infuriate me.
Of course if the Phillies could get a big offensive upgrade somewhere else than sure get rid of Rollins, I just don’t see that possibility out there. You seem pretty willing to usher in a future that isn’t all that bright compared to the present.
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Just to let you know…I probably watch more Phils games than you. I have MLB.COM which broadcasts ALL the Phils games except those available from time to time on Fox or ESPN, etc. which I then watch. So I see as many games as my own time permits. I probably saw about 140 2011 Phils games. Is that enough for you? How many games did YOU watch in 2011…honestly.
If you want to make an argument, your need to denigrate my viewing quantity without knowledge shows that the facts at hand need not be considered.
Tell me: how many games will J-Roll play in ’13, ’14, as well as ’12? Can you tell me? No? Why not? Perhaps you will check reality. Reality tells us that J-Roll has lost considerable DL time over the l;ast 3 seasons. Do you expect him to play even 130 games in these succeeding seasons.. .and compare that with the likelihood that Galvis would be eligible, and likely satisfy the old J-Roll’s playing 155 games/season. It will be terrific to watch J-Roll sitting on the bench for 30-40 games (again)or more and collecting big bucks that could lessen the team’s ability to fill the obvious holes previously mentioned.
The offense for the team demands that the “offensive positions” be filled at 3rd base and left field. THOSE are “offensive positions,” not shortstop. That’s what I’ve been camaigning for.
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2010 when he only played in 88 games is an aberration out of all his years. Every other year he’s played at least 130 and basically 140. Your claims are the ones that have no basis in reality when you expect Galvis to easily have an OBP of .330 in the majors. Like I said I would be fine with getting rid of Rollins if it meant a big offensive upgrade elsewhere but please tell me where you see that happening. Drop me some names for us to sign or trade for that are realistic. Even if we don’t keep J Roll I still wouldn’t start Galvis in 2012. Like I said I’d prefer Valdez or Martinez over Galvis or even the majority of the SS free agents and trust me they aren’t impressive.
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Hey Art, I support you, and am not even sure I agree with you, but can’t stand group-think, pile-on mentality, even if you have a minority opinion. I’m in the foxhole with you.
Incoming!!!!!!!
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Screw it, I’ll bite. If they don’t resign Rollins, who fills the “huge hole” at 3rd?
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If they sign J-Roll many here will get their wish: Galvis at SS before too long. Maybe even in ’12 when, not if, J-Roll goes down. Except that the team will still be tied to him for 2-3 more years @ $10 million per season or more.
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I’d rather have 140 games a year of Rollins at 10 mill per for the next 3-4 years than Galvis for probably the same amount of games for whatever amount he’d be making. Even if Galvis stayed healthy throughout the entire season I doubt he hits enough to start more than 140 games in a season at the major league level.
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Will you get–per yr view–140 games out of J-Roll in ’12, ’13. ’14?…guaranteed from J-Roll like you could count on 4 years ago? Picture reality: his aging is not going to make him less vulnerable to injury, erather for more DL time…or maybe most of the season as he did in 2010. Would 70 games at SS for J-Roll make you happy, while he gets good views from the bench and only needs to move slightly to reach in his back pocket the bank account that keeps getting larger: the 30-40 million $$$s for the next 3 years.
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I don’t see why you think missing 70 games for Rollins will be the norm in the future. It’s only happened to him once. That is an aberration not a pattern.
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Because time marches on. To expect better health and more playing time from him is to ignore father time and the OBVIOUS and APPARENT effects it has had on J-Roll’s body and skills over the last few years. Less health more money?
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So the fact that Rollins improved this year and put together a strong season despite BABIP unluckiness. I don’t expect Rollins to play 150+ games anymore. But I see no reason to believe that he can’t play 140ish games a year. He was almost a 4 WAR player this year. Galvis is not going to come anywhere near that.
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Small signings, small deals RAJ. As good as Pence is it would’ve been cheaper to get replacements for Minny Mart, Gloud, Snyder and another Bp arm. MM had 200 abs and was worthless especially considering you have Valdez and Mayberry in CF. Phils could’ve had a .290 hitter (.365 OBP) no power and 3 more upgrades for peanuts.
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If you get one costly and expensive piece and they fail you’re in trouble. If you get 3 or 4 upgrades cheap 3 can fail and one succeed. No brainer.
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The news about Galvis is interesting, but I think it is more insurance against further injury. The Phillies need Galvis to have a good year in AAA this year. They will make an attempt to sign Rollins because he still has a good bat and he still is one of the best fielding shortstops in the majors. If they do not sign him they will continue to be a weak offensive team.
Galvis may be helpful in 2013, but to compete this year they need a major league hitter. Last year they often fielded a AAA line up with gaping holes in the batting order. Galvis may be better than Valdez and Martinez, but how can you take a chance when the hitters are breaking down physically. The Phillies have not had a serious everyday prospect outside of Taylor and Brown in AA or above until Galvis began to show promise last year. As Taylor and Brown have shown, major league pitchers can humble a rookie hitter.
If the window is a four year one with two gone already, the Phillioes must employ major league hitters and not the variety they have had the past two years. If Galvis is at shortstop on opening day, it will be worrisome for we fans. The team needs better hitting and, as it looks now, Galvis will have difficulty supplying it. Give him a break and let him have another year at AAA.
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Whatever Brown problems were he was hardly HUMBLED by pitchers. Lets see the last month he played : .296 .398 .366 .764. Sending him down put him in a funk but someone should of known that he would take it hard. That is on him but “humbled”!
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with a left fielder who finished the year with a .707 ops… terrible, should have just released Ibanez.
I love Charlie but his loyalty really annoys me sometimes.
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The better hitting should be coming from 3rd base and left field…If your team NEEDS hitting from SS for lack of it from 3rd base and left field, the team is in trouble. Fielding is the first, primary requisite to play MLB shortstop.
Because of that hitting need for this team, it has been my screed that those two “offensive” positions are most needful for this team as presently constituted.
Brown cannot be trusted since he has not shown he can hit MLB pitching AND he can’t play the outfield worth a damn. His swing is way too long thus not getting to the hitting zone quckly enough. It is HE who needs a full year at AAA LV for what he lacks; Galvis does not need a season at AAA LV because he NOW can supply the needed skills for shortstop now. And, he is likely to be able to man the position for 150 or so games in the next 3 seasons…unlike J-Roll who is now 33 and would be 36 at the time of his 3 year contract ending. Galvis 26(?).
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Explain to me why a team that has a struggling offense should concede an out in their offense. That’s what I think will happen if Galvis is the 2012 starter. And again you keep mentioning upgrades at 3rd and left. Where are they coming from? Name names.
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The AAA lineup they fielded was fine for 102 wins. The big-league lineup played all five playoff games and got beat by a team on a roll. Rollins is arguably the 2nd best SS on the market. Galvis needs more development time, and after 2012, he could be a part time major leaguer backing up SS and 2B and maybe 3B (not sure). He’s not a starter on a playoff tea. The big league team’s window is as long as Lee and Halladay and Hamels are good pitchers and under contract. In all, the move here seems to be precautionary to not allow a “top” prospect to be further injured.
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Galvis had a cyst on his wrist drained, it was not an amputation. So, all this injury concern is overdone.
They will not bring J-Roll back at any price. I believe he will pull more money and years than they can reasonably assume. OK with the one more year for Galvis at AAA and re-evaluate thing.
What they should do is get 2 more veteran SS capable types on 1 year deal, alternate them at SS with the hope that one or both can win a long-term place. I look at ,say, Nick Punto and Jerry Hairston JR. like that. Or perhaps a trade for such a player.. These should also be able to fill at 2B or 3B as needed. I’m beginning to believe they should go less expensive than J-Roll at SS and look to add depth. In this mode, they can have a player to work in with Polanco. Some have mentioned Michael Cuddyer and I believe he would pull around 11 million per. I think they could work him in. Cuddyer can start off at 1B due to the Howard injury and move to 3B to work in with Polanco. Polanco can then also do some filling at 2B and SS as needed. Cuddyer at 1B can move Mayberry to start off in LF. An example bench can be: Bowker at 1B backing Cuddyer until the return of Howard (maybe), one of Punto or Hairston Jr. on an alternating basis with one on bench, Polanco at 3B after the sliding of Cuddyer across to work more at 3B, the back-up Catcher, I say stick with Kratz for the minimum, and a CF capable OF reserve who plays LF and RF and maybe some IF. I say Scott Hairston who can play all 3 OF and fill at 2B.
I believe they can come in under budget on this going cheaper at SS and filling with such a bench, and maybe some pitching adjustments.
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Really I am getting POed about the “Brown has NO chance” group. Obviously he went into a funk when demoted almost instantly. But he could reverse that funk as as instantly especially with a winter to think it over ,get some advise, and turn his anger to performance.
And he hit better against left than right handers. I know SSS, but that doesn’t say he CAN’T repeat the same stats.
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I think it’s funny how many people want Cuddyer. I think he’d get a Raul type contract and become the next Raul on the team. Don’t see how you’d pay 11 mill per year for a guy that will basically bounce around and be platooned. Doesn’t make sense to me but hey what do I know.
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He’s flexible, he’s younger than Raul, plays in a canyon, and is a great clubhouse guy.
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He can play a ton of positions but doesn’t field any of them well. He’s younger than Raul but I don’t think he stays in as good as shape as Raul so I think you might see a similar breakdown pattern. Cuddyer is going to be 3 year 33-36 mill guy. Once you lock into that contract what do you do with him. Howard isn’t going to stay injured forever. mayberry or brown are going to need room in the outfield and I don’t think Cuddyer will be able to out hit his defensive ineptitude at 3rd for very long.
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Yeah, but somehow that’s better than resigning Rollins for slightly more money and maybe an extra year.
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Yeah I’m a bit exasperated myself Cormican. I’m not even sure Galvis is the long term answer at short. I feel like Greene or Walding have a better shot at sticking and Galvis will be the utility guy. We’re gonna get rid of Rollins, make no significant upgrades anywhere else all so we can make way for the Utility guy of the future. And on a championship caliber team no less
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I’m glad I’m not a GM. I think I’d spend entire press conferences calling people idiots.
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Gotta agree with you Chris on Mr Mediocre . And like Raul more than one year will hurt.
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If I were running a team that just came off a 102-win season, my objective would be to try to keep the team intact with relatively minor tweaks.
If there were no expiring contracts of key players, the only moves I’d make would be to 1) replace Ibanez with Brown or with a Brown/Mayberry platoon, 2) find a versatile IF with enough bat and glove to fill in respectably for the regulars when they cannot play or need rest, 3) add a couple of power bats to the bench to fill partially the void created by Howard’s absence (which I conservatively would assume to be for most of the 2012 season) and 4) continue the process of filling bullpen spots with relievers from AAA.
The fact is, however, the Phils have three key players – Rollins, Madson, and Oswalt – who are about to become free agents. I would make a strong effort to bring all three back if they can be signed to reasonable, albeit expensive, contracts. I would also try to do a four- or five-year deal with Hamels.
I think too many of us get hung up on the team’s payroll by viewing it as an isolated number and failing to put it into context. What Phils’ management looks at is the entire financial statement of which payroll is just one item and the value of the franchise which probably would continue to rise as long as the Phils are making the playoffs. Increases in payroll can be offset by revenue increases. As long as the team’s bottom line remains healthy and as long as the value of the franchise keeps going up at a reasonable rate, the owners should be happy and shouldn’t mind spending a few more bucks on payroll.
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The problem with adding bench guys is that Charlie isn’t going to use them and those guys want to play so they sign elsewhere.
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Don’t count JRoll gone until he signs elsewhere. The Phils still have the best shot of signing him out of all the other teams.
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Phillies don’t want him back, according to Howard Eskin. His sources, from deep in the bowels of the Citizen Bank offices, say Phillies are hoping that JRoll gets an offer from another team that he simply cannot refuse.
Ruben says what is expected of him to say as to JRoll’s FA situation.
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Howard Eskin does not want him back…when he was talking with Seth Everett today Seth said the Phils (take his opinion over Eskin) are not going to set the bar and will let him test the market. They are not going to offer a 5 yr deal. But that doesn’t mean the Phils don’t want him. He thinks maybe a 3yr and an option. Eskin may know football but he is no baseball expert. Who would you go with if Rollins leaves? Betancourt? Alex Gonzalez? Scutaro? Furcal? Not much out there. Reyes will get a big deal with someone like the Nationals or Giants, but I like the kid Crawford who has been hitting well for Scottsdale. Then it is Jimmy. Galvis at best is one year away.
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Galvis now. He is ready to play the position. His hitting can come along just as J-Roll’s did when HE came up.
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Jimmy Rollins had a full year OPSing .800 at AAA before he got into the pros. Galvis is not similar at all as a hitter.
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He’s not going to be Jimmy but I think he’ll be a league average bat at short stop.
If you can add offense else where, such as upgrading third base or upgrading your bench/outfield, it’s going to offset the offense you lose with Jroll, and possibly could save you money that you can invest in the bench and bullpen.
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Investing in the bench will not help the Phillies enough to get rid of Rollins. Getting more offense at 3rd or LF would be an ok reason to get rid of him. But as I continue to say I don’t see the options out there. Third base is basically Aramis Ramirez as a free agent who is old and plays terrible defense. Or you trade away pieces to get a guy like David Wright who is not the same guy he was a few years ago and also doesn’t play that great of defense. However what would it take to get Wright? Brown, Worley? A combination of the two plus more? And after that Wright is locked into a lot of money. Wright isn’t really worth it, Ramirez doesn’t make them any younger and he will command a large salary. Outfield who is available? Cuddyer? He’s 32 or so and going to get a sizeable contract himself in the area of 3 yr 33-36 mill. Are we ready to give up on Mayberry and Brown because once you lock into a contract like that you can’t get out of that one. Cuddyer is liable to be the next Ibanez. None of these solutions solve the age “crisis” or improve the team that much.
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Food for thought. League median for starting shortstops by
Average: .273
By OBP .330
By Slugging.393
I think that would be a career year for Galvis. We expect him to have no growing pains in the majors? A guy who had 3 sub .600 OPS seasons and one slighty above .700 OPS season in the minors last year. I get the feeling that Galvis would contend for leagues worst hitting starting shortstop next year if given the chance. I want him to become a good player I just think next year is too soon for him and I will not believe he will be a serviceable hitter in the majors until he puts together a full good season at AAA.
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I made a small mistake that is qualified shortstops of which there are 20. Even so you drop the numbers down to the 15th best and it is:
.264, .310 and .369. All of which are still very optimistic numbers for Galvis.
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Unless that so-called list contains the numbers for the SS or SS tandems of all 30 MLB teams it is bogus. The random requirement of PA’s or Ab’s or whatever imposed by FanGraphs or whatever B organization put it together will (based upon players who get such a high percentage of plays at a position for a team) tend to skew the results toward the better offensive players. It is similar to the argument put together awhile back by this other stats genius that claimed J-Roll was the worst offensive performer at SS in MLB. Bogus then, bogus now. Don’t know what happened to that guy, doesn’t show up much anymore. Must have tucked his tail and slinked up under the porch to lick his wounds, It happens.
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Ok the median team averages for shortstops by:
Avg .259
OBP .314
Slg .352
Of course this factors in all the shortstops which isn’t what I wanted to do originally but my point still stands that I don’t think Galvis could even come close to reaching these numbers in 2012 in the majors.
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Marfis,
I love how all of the lousy arguments get assigned to the “stat geniuses” in your mind. No one who understands modern statistical analysis would argue that Rollins was the worst, or one of the worst hitting shortstops. The stat people understand better than most that Rollins is an above average hitting shortstop even now. There was a point where the numbers guys regarded Rollins as someone who was a little over rated as a hitter, mainly because of his lowish obp. But now it’s reversed – the casual, non-stat savvy, fan overestimates Rollin’s decline because of lack of understanding of the importance of considering performance relative to league (and to a lesser extent because Rollins has increased his BB rate, which us stat guys like but the casual fan doesn’t care about).
FWIW, the average NL SS in 2011 – all players, not just qualifiers for the batting title – averaged .261/.314/.374. Rollins of course exceeded that. If Galvis could do that as a rookie, with his defensive skills, I’d be happy to give him the job. I doubt he can in 2012, though eventually he could equal or exceed that. If I had to ballpark it, I’d say he could hit .240/.295/.340 as a rookie in 2012. I don’t consider that adequate.
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….your arguement was pretty persuasive until you mentioned lefty hitting Crawford as the ss…..too big, slow but has some pop, ….Giants will move him to 3rd if Pablo beats out Belt, plus his career slash line—.266 .331 .403 .734 —-is just average. And he turns 25 in a few months.
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latest post……re: for kphilly response above in the thread.
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Howard Eskin is a Poopie-Head. A Fake and a Moron. “Secret Sources” lol
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+1!
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The equation is Galvis= Rollins
its Galvis + what rollins money buys = Rollins e.g
Galvis + a true 3rd baseman = =\ Rollins + Polanco
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The problem with that equation is the fact that there are no good third base options. The “best” options are Wright, a shadow of himself who would cost way too much in prospects and salary, and Ramirez, who plays lousy defense, wouldn’t help the team’s age profile, and who would cost way too much. I’d rather sign Rollins to an excessive contract than Ramirez.
In a way it’s a silly argument though – if Rollins could be had for a reasonable contract – say 3/30 or maybe as much as 3/36 – then signing him would be a no brainer move. But he wants more, and seems determined to test the FA market. Probably the only way the Phillies could forestall that would be to give him an excessive, above market contract, which they shouldn’t do.
But let’s not pretend for a minute that replacing Rollins with Galvis (or, more likely, a stop gap), plus applying his salary elsewhere (he didn’t make all that much last year), will make the team better. Really ANY option other than resigning him is going to make the team a couple of wins worse in 2012. IMO the key (aside from minimizing the damage) is to avoid making long term commitments that will sabotage the team down the road.
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Take a minor-league contract flier on Kevin Kouzmanoff….can’t hurt…comes fairly inexpensive..and has played a few games at 3rd thru his career..
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We’d seriously start Kouzmanoff over Polanco? I don’t see any upside of taking a flier on Kouzmanoff.
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ahhhh yes…seriously—-considerably younger, more driving power, average glove…. though average career oWAR of 5.1—projectable 15/20 HRs and 70/75 RBIs….and can hit RH in the 6th/7th hole.
Or maybe you want a two or three time DL guy…with no power and no extra-base hitting ability anymore!
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I guess if Kouzmanoff was that type of guy it’d be worth it but he isn’t that guy. He’s now 30 and hasn’t put together that great of a season in awhile and the defensive dropoff would be huge. I’m not saying that we shouldn’t have a decent option for the inevitable Polanco DLs just think it would be a waste of a million dollars on Kouzmanoff.
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For instance I’d rather have a guy like Greg Dobbs who can play 1st, 3rd, and OF and who we know can be a pinch hitter. If say you wanted to set up some kind of semi platoon with Polanco wouldn’t it make more sense to have a guy that is left handed then having a guy who is Right handed? I’d imagine Dobbs could be had for 2 mill or less. The only question is will somebody offer him a starting job. Or we could possibly go with Betemit who is similarly versatile although he might command more and is probably a much worse defender.
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I’m baffled – honestly baffled – the extent to which the fans in general & here in particular just turn on some players. The latest is Polanco. I think I get two pieces of it – a combination of not giving him enough credit for his defense, and not understanding that the standards for hitting from thirdbasemen have changed radically over the past few years.
Now, those standards may change back, but even if they do, probably not overnight, and in any event for now the Phillies have to operate in a game where good hitting thrid basemen are few and far between.
It’s funny, because it seems that some of the same people who are just fine with replacing Rollins with Galvis are also the biggest advocates for getting rid of Polanco. I mean … Kouzmanoff?! Really?! I understand the temptation – but this is the WORST time to contemplate replacing Polanco, given what is available.
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Yeah Larry I just think people are being way too reactionary. Ready to blow up a 102 win team but actually make no real improvements elsewhere. Doesn’t make sense. Even if we didn’t want to have Polanco as a starter next year our hands are kind of tied and his contract is not up until the end of next season. He isn’t that bad that we need to try to overpay for someone else to come in at least not unless that player is really special. I think we should just make sure we have a very capable 3B backup like Dobbs or Betemit for when he goes down and when we want to give him a breather. Maybe if we put him into a semi platoon he’d be a little more durable and produce better.
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Those advocating maintaining Polanco’s presence at third base…is very admirable. And granted, he will initially produce for the first 6/7 weeks…but by mid-May he will begin the age-related decline —an assortment of ailments that will curtail his production. Has it not happened in the last two years? And then what do you do….Valdez, Martinez et al. There is no fountain of youth elixir that will keep him propped up through September…I wish there were.
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Further, I see all the negative comments about Kousmanoff and the like…players who are hungry for the second chance of stardom……now wouldn’t it have been convenient for the Cardinals to think that way of David Freese…a close to journeyman player who 8 months ago, on this site, would have been sneered and laughed-off by all the experts.
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Freese was never close to a journeyman player. He’s always been a prospect with talent but hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’s closer to Jason Werth than he is to Kouzmanoff.
8 months ago Freese was 109 OPS+ in STL, hardly a player that would be sneered at..
Besides, wouldn’t Kouzmanoff have to have a 1st chance at stardom before he becomes hungry for his second chance?
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Kouz’s best ever season produced 3.0 WAR. Even in Polly’s off performance this year, he damned near matched that. Polly isn’t what he once was, but Kouzmanoff never was in the first place.
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And it continues … look, Polanco is what he is, none of us are overly optimistic about him. But the kind of magical thinking that pretends that we can pull a better player out of a hat … or, worse, the kind of thinking that ANYONE would be better than a player who is well above average defensively and a bit below average as a hitter as a thirdbaseman (no, it is not a “hitters” position at the moment; third basemen as a group hit little better than SS last year – and that was also a down year for SS). Sure, IF there was a decent option, third base is an area where the Phillies could get better. There is none.
I mean, setting aside the Kouzmanoff nonsense – he isn’t good enough to start for a non-contender, let alone a contender at this point, as bad as Polanco as a hitter (more power, less OBP) and much, much worse as a fielder – people are also suggesting moving Rollins to third and inserting Galvis at SS. How does that even make sense? Galvis would be significantly worse even than Polanco as a hitter, and, even assuming that Galvis was as good as Rollins defensively at SS (no sure thing), I wouldn’t count on Rollins, playing a new position, to duplicate Polanco’s defensive excellence. So they would be worse on both sides of the ball. How does that help?
Oh, that’s right, I guess Kouzmanoff and Galvis is hungry. Maybe they can eat their way to success. I think I’m going to invent a new term – “thirsty.” I think Polanco is thirsty – I want a thirsty guy as a regular at third base. Absurd? Of course. But no more absurd than the notion that a journeyman 30 yo third baseman coming off a .235/.284/.372 season with mediocre defense, who throughout his career has struck out 4 times as often as he has walked, is going to “hungry” his way to being an adequate regular for a contender.
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larrym….I think I will save your post for another day in 2012. One of my biggest joys is watching one eat well-cooked crow,
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So I’m wrong about Kouzmanoff … or Galvis is going to hit better than .277/.335/.339 AND defend as well as Rollins AND they will resign Rollins to play third base? I hope for your sake that you’re not saying either of these things. So what is it then? Maybe they can get Ryan Zimmerman for a “C” prospect and a bag of used baseballs? Yeah, I admit it, if that happens I guess my comments will look kind of silly.
No, there is one and only one way that the Phillies could signficantly upgrade their hitting at third base, and that would be to sign Ramirez. And considering that he just opted out of 15 million for next year, unless he and his agent used extraordinarily bad judgment, he’s getting a huge contract. Do you want to pay Ramirez – yes a good hitter, but not young and a lousy defender – say 3/45? I sure as heck don’t. Given some of his questionable contracts, it wouldn’t shock me to see Amaro make a mistake of that magnitude, but that would hardly make me wrong on the merits.
Look, if even one of the many people crying for a change at third base proposes a non-ridiculous alternative – not even a GOOD one mind you, but just one that passes the laugh test – then we can begin to have a conversation. But until then, this talk of replacing Polanco is on par with people dreaming about the Phillies signing Reyes AND Pujols for the league minimum.
I’m accused of nastiness around her. and maybe it is sometimes merited at some level. But honesty given the rank stupidity of about 1/3 of the commenters here, I think I deserve a medal for restraining myself from calling out the stupidity more often.
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Kousmanoff couldn’t start regularly for two of the worst teams in baseball last year – I mean, increasingly I think you must not even be serious. Or maybe you are a Braves’ fan, and want to see the team lose? A team of Kousmanoff level players would lose 120 games. Having him as a regular on a contender would probably rank as one of the 10 worst decisions in major league history.
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Larry I’m in your corner here. Suggesting that Kouzmanoff, with his .235/ .284/ .372 offensive numbers and below replacement player defense would be an improvement and/or alternative to Polanco is literally not even making a sane suggestion. It’s an idea so idiotic on its own merit it doesn’t deserve a measured response. Just call it what it is – which is moronic – and move on.
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Rick…..I see you like to jump on the bandwagon…’riskless to say the least, please And so harsh!….references to morons ….lets see what happens when Polly breakdown again next year and will see y’all complaining again about Martinez or Valdez manning third base….playing an adequate 3rd defensively….but below par offense. Your right…move on.
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I would much, much, much rather have 2/3 of a season of Polanco and 1/3 of a season of Valdez/Martinez than a full season of Kouzmanoff. Heck, a FULL season of Valdez/Martinez would be no worse than a full season of Kouzmanoff, not that I’m advocating that.
Moronic is too kind.
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I suggested signing Kevin Kouzmanoff myself. I wouldn’t advise signing him at a high salary and a guaranteed roster spot. You sign him to a NRI. Unless he sets the world afire, he sits at AAA and becomes an insurance policy if your big league roster suffers injury. Nothing wrong with that.
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Then find a way to ditch Polanco and put Rollins on third. Somewhere someplace there has to be someone who can play third base. Someone who deserves but hasn’t had a chance, The management team has to be inventive. Or dare I say the “P” word. Galvis and Pujols works for me. lolol
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I’m not even sure Pujols’ Offense is enough to offset the god awful Defense you’d likely get out of him at 3rd.
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The equation is not Galvis = Rollins sorry
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Like I said if you can make a big improvement somewhere else get rid of Rollins, but people are still failing to provide feasible options.
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Just entered the thread. Sorry if these points have been made.
I think both of PP’s suggestions are likely. They definitely want him to be ready for ST. No brainer there. But much of his hitting struggles before 2011 were a product of his relative frailty for a full season. He has always had several streaks per season where he was stroking the ball nicely, line drives, some gap doubles, one over the wall once in a while. Then a string of 0-fers, lots of weak grounders (non-scientific, but based on close daily following of box scores, game logs, etc.). To me, Phils ought to be proactive in ensuring he is fresh for next season and all of his additional conditioning (he plans to resume his weight training) should go to endurance and hitting consistency for the MLB season. Pretty clear that Phils would be thinking that way.
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Durham DiaDerby…tell it like it is.
That was quick. Where did all the mediocrity go?
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It also show the Phils are thinking Galvis is at least a darkhorse option for SS in 2012.
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Maybe “last resort option” is a better term.
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Cheese sooner or later you need to take a chance. Some are way to conservative, And that is coming from an old f,,t
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Yeah…ya gotta be willing to take a chance where the circumstances demand you make a choice.
Galvis is a chance worth taking…in these present circumstances.
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What is the least amount he would have to do offensively for you to say he was worth starting in the majors in 2012? Also what are the other moves you are making in tandem with starting Galvis at short since you seem to be predicating it on the Phillies being able to improve elsewhere?
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I would take .250 with a nice OBP . Anything over that is gravy, especially he show improvement in the second half . Sorta the opposite of Martinez.
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What do you consider a nice OBP? I can’t see Galvis breaking .300 in his first year. I know he had a good year last year but we have yet to find out if that is going to become the norm or an aberration. He had 3 straight seasons of a sub .600 OPS in the minors. I feel like that might be where he’s headed if they rush him into a starting role in 2012. I want Galvis to be good but I just don’t think he’s ready yet. He could benefit from another 1 or 2 years at AAA.
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Here’s a projection (ZIPS) for Freddy Galvis next season: .261/.299/.359, 76 OPS+.
To me the question isn’t about making improvements elsewhere if Galvis is on the team, or anything of that nature. It’s can we do better? Galvis’ projected OPS+ would’ve ranked 32nd in the majors among shortstop with 300 PAs this season. You can do better with a one year stopgap for not much money. There are always guys like that available.
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And I think that projection might be a little optimistic. Galvis had a good year last year that was out of line with the rest of his offense. Not sure it is real. I hope it is. But I could also easily see a line of .240/.285/.340 for an OPS of around .625. This does not mean that Galvis cannot eventually be a 700-750 OPS major leaguer. He is just not there yet and needs 1-2 more AAA years.
I prefer Rollins to a stopgap, though like many others I would hesitate to go beyond 3 years.
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Ok if someone is always available , start with Freddy and if he fails….
Not hold on to a FA like Bruntlett or Martinez like they were valuable. And then
there is Cholly . You can’t even give him a mediocre vet chance or he will
get locked in again
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If your choice is Bruntlett or Martinez you’re doing it wrong. It may end up being someone like Edgar Renteria. But you won’t find that player midseason. You give yourself options and you buy Galvis development time. In a perfect world, Galvis really needs more time in AAA.
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I felt very comfortable when Pat Gillick was GM because he is smart, showed good judgment, and had a great track record. Sure, he made mistakes, but, at the same time, showed the ability to recover from his mistakes.
I don’t have the same confidence in Amaro. He seems smart enough, and he certainly deserves a lot of credit for building the Phils’ formidable rotation, but he needs a few more years of success before I grow comfortable with him. So far, however, the only move I would criticize him for is the Howard contract, not its size nor the dollars involved, but its timing.
I hope he avoids signing either Aramis Ramirez or Jose Reyes, and I hope he does not trade for David Wright. I think those would be bad moves, especially those involving the last two players.
I also hope that he allows the farm’s prospects to ripen in 2012. Additional trades in 2012 of our best prospects would be harmful to a farm system that is not very deep right now. I particularly am interested in seeing how Trevor May and Freddy Galvis develop. If they perform well, this time next year the Phils may have two more players knocking on the door to the majors. This time next year perhaps enough of the young guys will develop to the point where we can be optimistic about their futures either to become Phillies or to be used as trade bait.
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The greatest skill that Gillick brought to the table that Amaro hasn’t really shown is the ability to make the small moves that complete a roster. Amaro has done a good job at making the big moves, even the ones that no one expects, but I’d like to see him do better at tinkering around the edges to bring in the guys who contribute.
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Very true. I was thinking about this the other day. Gillick’s greatest attribute was that he realized the need for redundancy through the organization. He would be more likely to bring in three guys who were good but had potential rather than overspend for the great player. The approach did not always work great (although sometimes it did!), but it usually prevented the team from having huge talent gaps.
Amaro also has to show some balance in terms of who he trades and how many players he trades. He needs depth. He needs redundancy (he has that, by the way, with the bullpen pitchers and probably the starting pitchers). But the model of trading your three or four best prospects away every year like clockwork is not sustainable over a moderate period of time. Not even the Yankees do that anymore.
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Given the current health issues of the entire Phils’ infield, Amaro could demonstrate his ability to make small moves by building a strong bench for 2012.
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Funny that Amaro doesn’t seem to value bench player when he spent time on the pines.
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What will the Luxury Tax level be in 2012, 2013, 2014? I believe collective bargaining is looking at that right now. Current tax for being a 1st time over the limit is 22.5% of the overage. If Philly signs every player that everyone wants, you might end up paying twice for the guy or at least 22.5% more than that guy’s salary. You can beg and plead and cry about not signing this guy or that guy but it all comes down to dollars and cents (and maybe sense). If the Phils plug all the holes with big contracts then they’ll bump into that Luxury Tax and who wants to pay 22.5% additonal amount for nothing? 2nd year (repeat offenders) pay 30% and up to 40% over the Luxury Tax.
The Phils have done a lot to make a winner. They won’t become the Yankees or even the Red Sox. There is a limit. At some point they have to use a cheaper option and keep their fingers crossed. Every year there is some guy on some team that everyone said was the worst player who ever lived etc etc. He comes through the season and helps the team big time. We’ve all seen guys bat .240 to .250 but that 1 hit in 4 trips seems to come at the most opportune time. There are also guys who bat an empty .300. Their getting hits when the game is aready won or his team is down so many runs that it can’t come back. Every guy batting 8th in an NL lineup often has useless hits or walks. The pitcher comes up and ends the inning.
ps I didn’t mention anyone in my write-up. It wasn’t about this guy replacing that guy or getting traded for someone else. It has a lot to do with dollars and sense (oops cents).
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There is one way to drastically increase revenue but it would take a man with more vision than Montgomery.
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FYI—-not subject of this thread. But appears Bud Selig’s desire for draft slotting has gone by the wayside to facilitate a CBA….however he may get a cap on Latin international signings ilo of a draft.
‘………..SI.com’s Melissa Segura reported that an international signing cap could be in the range of $2-$2.5MM, though it wasn’t certain if this total was for all international signings or just for those from the Dominican Republic.’
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Lisalberto Bonilla youtube:
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Throws across his body. Some cause for concern there,.
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I’d like to see the Phillies trade for either Callaspo or Izturis as our super-utility IF for 2012. Both are good defensively at multiple positions, and both are decent at the plate without much power.
Callaspo is the younger of the two and under team control until 2014. Izturis has a lot more experience at SS than Callaspo.
Either guy could fill in adequately for Polanco and Utley. Izturis could also fill in for Rollins. As such, acquiring either would be an important small move for the Phils.
I wonder what each guy would cost in trade.
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No more trades please
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We already have that guy his name is Valdez….
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Valdez is not a young guy (older than Rollins, who is apparently washed up and too old to rely on anymore). I’m curious what the trade cost would be. Maybe a spare bullpen part and low level C prospect.
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Izturis will be a FA on Sunday. Would prefer they go after Clint Barmes as a FA back-up IF who can play multiple positions. He will be a bit more expensive but provides more with the bat
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Not much more………….252/ .302/ .401/ .703
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as opposed to Izturis career – .255/.295/.322/.618? Yes, that is more with the bat.
Hell, Wilson Valdez’s career .243/.290/.330/.621 is on par with Izturis.
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one big difference,,,,they can glove it.
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based on defensive stats (for what they are worth), so can Barmes. I haven’t really seen him play SS much so I have no frame of reference but Barmes doesn’t appear to be terrible defensively.
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Izturis’ career numbers are .275/.339/.389/.728. You are looking at somebody else’s numbers.
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I’m looking at Cesar Izturis. Based on your numbers, your talking about Maicer Izturis!
Yes, they are certainly different players
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Sorry. I was talking about Maicer, who plays for LAA and is under contract through 2012. You are talking about his brother Cesar.
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not a problem. I agree that Maicer would be a good addition.
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ESPN’s Phil Mackey predicts Twins going after Clint Barmes…what does he know that no else knows!
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Thinking back to when the Phillies won the World Series, they didn’t have Halladay or Lee or Ibanez. The team was a lot younger and had a ‘never say die’ attitude, similar to what the Cardinals showed in World Series game 6. Neither Ramirez nor Cuddyer will make the team more similar to the 2008 team. On the other hand, bringing in a mediocre player just because he adds youth is not the solution either. I am not optimistic that JRoll comes back, since he wants a five year deal. There are not a lot of shortstops out there, so it might have to be MM or Galvis. Without JRoll, there would might be a change in attitude; maybe all the players would run out grounders and popups and get into the habit of playing all out all the time. Then, they wouldn’t have to turn it back on in the playoffs. One could even make the argument that if the team has to struggle to get into the postseason, they will be more likely to be ‘hot’ when the playoffs begin.
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There is zero chance that this team goes to ST with MM, Valdez or Galvis as its starting shortstop. If Rollins goes there will be a replacement found on the open market or through a trade.
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I agree. Barmes, Gonzalez and Betancourt are all reasonable possibilities for a one year deal and Barmes also plays 2B and 3B which would help his chances.
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See, here’s where even I, deeply critical of the “start that hungry Galvis, he’ll be better than that tired old guy Rollins” crowd, thinks that Galvis might end up being the best option by default. I think Betancourt and Gonzalez would be worse than Galvis, as well as more expensive. Barmes OTOH would be a decent stop gap. There are a couple other decent stop gap options, but I worry that they might make the mistake of signing or trading for someone like Betancourt.
That said, I am getting the sense that resigning Rollins might end up being more likely than I and some others had assumed after his press conference.
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Barmes defensive woes will be exposed at ss too sweet. And defense is paramouint.
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Maybe so. I haven’t seen the guy play much. Have you? I’m confident that he’s going to be much better than (say) Bettancourt. FWIW, the defenive metrics like him quite a lot at SS – signficantly better than average (all four of the advanced statistical fielding metrics agree). And it’s not like he’s new to the position. He played there exclusively in 2011, and 333 games there prior to 2011.
In fact, of the “stop gap” type shortstops, he may be the best defensively. Not sure how you do much better if you’re going with a “stop gap” type player.
And he can hit a little – not as good as Rollins, but better than Galvis & most of the “stop gap” type options.
Really in a way Barmes versus Bettancourt is a perfect test of the organization. Barmes will probably cost less but be a lot better. If they go with Bettancourt, my last shreds of respect for Amaro will be flushed down the toilet. Whereas Barmes, despite not being a long term solution, and, like any player, with some downside risk, would be a nice pick up if he could be had for a reasonable price.
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Barmes has been and is better defensively at 2nd then at ss….but as a one-year ‘stop-gap’ he may suffice.
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No, this is false. Barmes’ career UZR/150 is 7.2 at SS and 5.6 at 2B. He’s not a great hitter, but his defense makes him appealing on a one-year deal. I think he’ll get two years as a starting shortstop somewhere though.
For a one-year deal, I’d prefer someone like Jamey Carroll. You’d sacrifice some defense, but his on base skills make it worth it. Plus he can shift around the infield as need be if Galvis ends up taking over.
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Folks shouldn’t confuse what I’m predicting would happen with what I think should happen. I just don’t see Ruben going with an untested shortstop going into spring training. At the very least, an experienced veteran would be brought in as the presumptive starter. But give Charlie credit, once and a while he’ll find a young guy and stick with him, just as he did with Ruiz.
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You are being generous Ruiz was 28 when he started playing full time.
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When it comes to catchers….IMO the Phillies seem to be letting them stay down longer in the minors for more seasoning ilo of rushing them up….perhaps Tuffy will be the next project to succeed Ruiz. Apparently that logic would produce a more polished defensive catcher and the bat will eventually follow for a 7/8 spot hitter.
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It’s true that I shouldn’t have described Ruiz as a young player. He was, however, an untested and recently promoted player and a player who, at the time, was viewed, at best, as a back-up catcher going into the season. However, within a couple of weeks Charlie decided that Ruiz was his guy, which was due to Carlos playing so well and Rod Barajas being, well . . . Rod Barajas.
Honestly, I think it’s less about Charlie not wanting to try new players than it is about his being loyal to older players (“his guys”) and, admittedly, this often results in Charlie being very slow to give a young player adequate playing time. Utley, Werth, and now Mayberry are prime examples of this.
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Does Betancourt still wear the crown as the worst every-day player in baseball?
Are you trying to build a winner in 2012 or sabotage the team?
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Grasping at straws. If this was 2007 everyone would be saying, we need to get a veteran with playoff experience and a world series ring to show everyone how to do it. Now, the fitting meme is that we need to get younger and hungrier (despite the fact that only 8 guys on the roster, including Rollins and Madson, have a World Series ring).
The Phillies got unlucky and lost to the Cards despite outscoring them. There’s no magic elixer. Sometimes you shoot the bear, sometimes the bear eats you.
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I feel like we’re writing a narrative that doesn’t fit the data. The Phillies are still a very “scrappy” team and hang around in almost all of their games. The year they won the WS there was a lot of luck. I mean look at our “great bench”. So Taguchi, Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett. None of these guys were special talents or contributed that much over the course of the season. Matt Stairs got a HR that was pretty lucky in the postseason. We had three relievers who were pretty lights out in 08 and Hamels and Blanton pitched better than could be expected. Nothing the Phillies do in the offseason can guarantee they will win in the playoffs.
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Too bad you can’t sign the best players and then go get your World Series trophy. Darn it, you still have to play 162 games and 3 post-season series to get that. Also it was too bad that the playoffs didn’t start the day after Pence was acquired. It would have been a cake-walk through the playoffs. It’s all in the timing. The best team over 162 games still has to prove itself in the playoffs. What idiot thought that scenario up? Can we take him out behind the tool shed and whoop his butt?
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If it’s the best team over 162 games, what does it have to “prove” exactly?
The playoffs are both wonderful and excruciating because the best teams don’t always win. Not sure what your sarcasm is aimed at, but I don’t see your point about “proving” anything.
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Just a joke, man. Just a joke. Sorry if I offended you.
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sarcasm doesn’t always play well in posts.
I have seen enough of the “this team just just didn’t have the ‘it’ factor” narrative, both here and elsewhere, to not recognize it above. my apologies.
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Projected 2012 salaries Mark Swartz:
Cole Hamels Phillies SP $14.0
Hunter Pence Phillies RF $11.1
Kyle Kendrick Phillies SP/RP $3.2
Ben Francisco Phillies UT OF $1.5
Wilson Valdez Phillies UT IF $0.9
Pete Orr Phillies UT IF $0.7
Thought all along Kendrick would crack $4m.
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I think Hamels will be a lot lower than that because he will sign a long term deal with some salary relief for the team in the first two to three years. I bet his number ends up being closer to $10 or 11 million this year as part of a 5 year, $90 million or so contract with a 6th year expensive ($24 million?) vesting option and large buy-out.
By the way, does anyone ever stop to think about how G-D rich these guys are? I have a pretty decent job, but, gosh, I’m like a homeless guy compared to these players.
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First for Anon1, did you mean Matt Schwartz?
For Hamels, the Phillies have a pretty strong rule against signing pitchers to contracts more than 3-4 years. I think what you’re saying right, I just think the terms will be shorter (4 years with a 5th year vesting option).
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I don’t think that’ going to happen because, if I’m Hamels, there’s no way I forego being the premier free agent pitcher on the market for a 4, and possibly 5, year deal. I think he would give a home town discount to the Phils, but there are limits.
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Think they will offer him a deal similar to Cliff Lee’s where he will be paid around $11M for 2012 and then the salary jumps to $16M-$20M for 3 additional years with a conditional 5th year based on health/innings pitched.
That puts him around 5-$90M which would be higher than Halladay but less than Cliff Lee.
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I don’t know, he’d be 32 (technically 31, but he would turn 32 prior to the following season) coming off the end of a 4 year contract, which gives him a chance to cash in big one more time. Coming off a 5 year deal at 33 he would probably get a shorter deal for less cash overall. I think the 4 year deal is actually in his financial interest.
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Yeah, but I think it will be a 5 year deal with a 6th year vesting option and big buyout ($10 million), much like Lee’s, but a little lighter, as I think it should be. I think the total value will be something like $90-115 million.
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yes….my mistake…Matt vs Mark
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The more I watch and listen to who is out there as an FA and who some of the teams are I think there is a good shot at bringing Jimmy back. He may want 5 years but I believe he is going to find a really soft market for that term thus putting the Phillies in Play to maybe do a 3/Yr with an option for the 4th.
I’m optimistic anyway….
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I have a feeling that Rafael Furcal will be our opening day SS with Galvis waiting in the background.
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I could live with that. I think Rollins is a bit better, but if the terms are right (like, say a 2-year, $18 million deal with an option year and buyout for Furcal), it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Jimmy is looking for like $45 million over 4 years.
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Mixed feelings. Was 2011 an aberation, or a permenant age related decline? BABIP suggests a rebound, not to mention the injury factor, but he is 33 and I don’t want the 2011 version of Furcal. Risky. But given the options if Rollins leaves … maybe. Unlike (say) Betancourt, at least there is an upside.
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The Furcal the Cardinals got was a fine player. It boils down to Furcal being a terrible player this year in LA, and clearly there were aggravating circumstances there. If you can get Furcal on a 2 year deal, I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Even a lesser Furcal is better than what a lot of shortstops on the market produce. And this is a guy whose teams more often than not are in the playoffs, FWIW.
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To bad Pat Gillick is not running the show…….he might have made Jeremy Hermida one of his OF reclamation projects once the Pads release him.
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Pat Gillick is still works for the Phillies as a Special Advisor.
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But doesn’t run the show.
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Do you really believe that Pat Gillick has no say in how the Phillies operate still? Ruben may have the car keys but not the car registration.
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Will Sandberg take the Card’s job? That would be a misfortune for the Phillies.
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Justin Verlander & Cole Hamels both made $500,000 in 2008, Felix Hernandez made $540,000.
In 2009 Verlander made $3,675,000, Hernandez made $3,800,000, while Hamels signed a 3 year, $20.5 million contract that paid him $4.35 million in 2009, $6.65 in 2010 & $9.5 in 2011.
In 2010 Verlander signed a 5 year $80 million extension that paid $500,000 up front, $6.75 million in 2010, 12.75m in 2011, $20m in 2012, $20m in 2013, and $20m in 2014.
In 2010 Hernandez signed a 5 year $78 million extension that paid $3.5 million up front, $6.5M in 2010, $10M in 2011, $18.5M in 2012, $19.5M in 2013, and $20M in2014.
Hamels made $20.5 from 2009-2011
Verlander made $23,675,000 from 2009-2011, owed $60m in 2012-2014
Hernandez made $23,800,000 from 2009-2011, owed $58m in 2012-2014
Hernandez will be 26 in 2012, Hamels 28 and Verlander will be 29. Hamels is left-handed, but is the third best pitcher in the group. If he wants to remain marketable and hit free-agency again at age 31…a 3 year deal between $51-57 million, or $17-19 million annually could work for both parties and allow all three pitchers to drive up a market starved for arms after 2014 if their careers progress as expected.
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was responding to catch22 above
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If Hamels were to sign a four- or five-year extension now, he would still be in line for the biggest payday of his career at the end of the extension.
Hamels will be 28 in December. If he signs a four-year deal now, it will run through the 2015 season, at the close of which Hamels will only be 31. Cliff Lee became momentarily the highest paid pitcher in baseball when he accepted the five-year deal with the Phillies. At the time of signing, Lee was 32.
If I were advising Hamels, he would seek a four- or five-year deal now to be followed by a five- or six-year deal. Keep in mind that at the time of the second deal, Hamels probably would be the Phils’ No. 1 pitcher.
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Both Tom and Derek make good points. Hamels is hitting the market at an interesting time in his career. The three year deal makes some sense if that’s what Hamels wants (I’m not sure he does), and, certainly, the Phillies would love to limit his deal to three years (perhaps with a 4th year option with a large balloon payment in year 4 – $25-27 million? – and a large buyout. The point of the balloon would be to encourage the team re-negotiate before the option comes up).
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If people think that jimmy wont get some team to give me 4 or 5 years,they arent mistaken, the teams will overpay for him, he is coming off playing for a winning team, that counts for something in peoples mind, still a good fielder, with speed, watch out for the nationals, they arent happy with there shortstop, he makes too many bone head plays, the phillis in my opinion shoulnt go more than 3 years, if he walks he walks
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