Hey all. I’m going to be posting semi-regular updates on the Arizona Fall League, probably twice a week or so, and this is update #1. The Phillies did not send any upper echelon prospects this year, but there are a number of interesting guys to watch, led by Tyson Gillies, who has spent more time on the trainer’s table than on the field the last 2 seasons. Gillies is joined by Cody Overbeck, who was a mixed bag in 2011, and then a group of future bullpen arms. For those of you who haven’t followed the Arizona Fall League before, a quick primer. There are 6 teams in the league, and each team is a mix of prospects from 5 MLB teams. The Phillies prospects play for Scottsdale, along with prospects from the Red Sox, Nationals, Giants and Angels. The league is an offensive heavy league for two primary reasons. One, teams rarely send their elite pitchers to the league due to managing innings/pitch limits for a season. The exception here is a guy coming off an injury who needs to get his work in, as well as a few guys who were drafted in June and signed late, not having time to make their debuts in the regular season leagues. Additionally, the conditions in the desert are very warm, the air is thin, and the wind helps create many high scoring games. Because of these varying factors, offensive numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, and pitching numbers just the same. As we should be doing with all leagues, focus on peripherals and secondary skills in relation to the production in the league as a whole. Check below the fold for the update on our guys
Phillies post-mortem…get it out of your system
Hey everyone. I have a bunch of big plans for the site over the next few months. Today is a rough day, as we try to sort through the rubble and figure out what went wrong. I think I already figured it out, and I wrote about it before Game 5 even happened over at my other site. But it’s going to take some time to decompress. I’m just going to ask that you decompress here in this post and not everywhere else on the site. You can talk about which players should go, which should come in, etc etc. But I am going to do a few updates per week on the AFL, I’m working on some other pieces as well, and then we’ll start the Reader Top 30. I’d prefer to keep all of the hand ringing, wallowing, and bitching in one place. So this is the place. Bookmark it if you need to. But I’m going to eradicate unrelated comments in other posts that belong here. A disappointing season, but still a bright future ahead. So get it all out of your system now and let’s move on in a little while.
Thanks
BA Top 20: Phillies get hosed on the Eastern League list
Okay, “hosed” was used for effect, but I am a bit surprised the R-Phillies didn’t sneak at least one guy on to the list. Derrick Mitchell, Austin Hyatt, and Matt Rizzotti all put up statistically worthy campaigns, but all 3 are a tad advanced in terms of age. Hyatt’s 2nd half maybe should have warranted consideration, as he posted a 62/15 K to BB rate in 55 innings post-all star break and allowed just 4 home runs. He is 25 though and lacks projection, which is where BA focuses these lists. That said, I think there’s a decent chance he ends up with a more productive major league career than a number of guys who did make the list. The other options that might have made it were Justin De Fratus and Phillippe Aumont, but both guys were promoted to LHV and probably didn’t have enough innings to merit consideration, especially because both are relief prospects. Freddy Galvis, a long time favorite of BA, also did not make the list after putting up the best offensive numbers of his career (by a wide margin)
I’m working on a revamp of my “statistical toy” that I talked about a few months ago, blending it with what I used for the SONAR scores a few years ago to try and create something “better” and more valuable, and when I do this, I will run the numbers for each league and put together Top 20 lists of my own, which will be fun to compare with the lists put up by BA. Look for that later.
BA Top 20: FSL list includes 3 current Phillies and 2 former Phillies
BA continues their run of league top 20s with the Florida State League, where the Phillies dominated the list, with 3 current players and 2 former players. The current crop includes Trevor May at #4, Sebastian Valle at #12, and Brody Colvin at #19, with former Phillies property Jon Singleton coming in at #7 and Jarred Cosart coming in at #9. You can see the full list here. Do not copy/paste the blurbs. Here is a quick summation
May – Good low 90s fastball, toying with a 2 seamer (which is GREAT news), curve and changeup are solid but both still need work, and his command is still his biggest question mark
Valle – Good raw power, ability to barrel balls to RF and his defense continues to make impressive progress, as he has a strong arm and improving footwork
Colvin – 90-94 hitting 95, but struggling with his secondary offerings and his fastball command and has trouble repeating his delivery (the cause of the command issues, obviously)
Singleton – Nothing groundbreaking here, good bat, good approach, raw power, but struggles against LHP
Cosart – Messy delivery, but huge arm strength, changeup grades out above his curve right now, both are inconsistent, some scouts think he’s a reliever (which I agree with)
I expect we’ll have a name or two on the Eastern League list. The FSL has 12 teams, so to have 3 of the 20 and 5 if you count the traded prospects shows the depth of Clearwater’s roster this year. Also, Pettibone, Jiwan James and Rodriguez missed the list, and both probably got consideration.
Updated running list
GCL: (1) – Ethan Stewart, LHP (16th)
NYPL: (2) – Maikel Franco, 3B (4th), Aaron Altherr, OF (20th)
SAL: (1) – Jesse Biddle, LHP (6th)
FSL: (3) – Trevor May, RHP (4th), Sebastian Valle, C (12th), Brody Colvin, RHP (19th)
Around the System–Bullpen, Lower Half
The last of the Around the System reports….
Lakewood
Tyler Knigge, 22, Phils 12th round pick in 2010; 43 games; 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA; 4 saves; 65IP58H 24BB 54K; 0.97 GO/AO; .243 opp. avg., .237 vs. LH, .246 vs. RH, .290 with RISP; 1.26 WHIP; 3.3BB/7.4K. Knigge had a pretty good year, although was inconsistent at times. 2012: Clearwater
Jay Johnson, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 40 games; 1-5 with a 2.94 ERA; 5 saves; 49IP 41H 35BB 49K; 0HR allowed; 1.94 GO/AO; .228 opp. avg., .208 vs. LH, .236 vs. RH, .213 with RISP; 1.55 WHIP; 6.5BB/9.0K; Johnson pitched well and didn’t give up a homer in his 49 innings, a nice trait for a late inning guy. Still, his walk rate is huge and will need work in Clearwater next season. Continue reading Around the System–Bullpen, Lower Half
General Chatter, Week of 26 September 2011
My apologies for missing the last few weeks with the weekly posting, I’ve been busy with other projects. Here is your spot to discuss anything not related to the specific posts here on the front page. It’s my goal to try and keep each post here on topic, so please be respectful of that. Thanks.
BA Top 20: SAL list includes Jesse Biddle
BA’s Top 20 lists continue with the SAL today, and in a somewhat surprising move, only Jesse Biddle was included at #6. I looked at the list, and the league was fairly deep this year, but I guess I expected another name or two. BA notes his fastball was consistently 87-91, though we’ve read that it topped out higher than that, and they note his curveball and changeup were both solid. For a northeastern US high school kid jumping to the SAL in his first season, Biddle met and exceeded expectations, and I can make an argument putting him ahead of Christian Yelich, who came in at 5th, but its a solid ranking for him in his first season.
Of note, our old friend Domingo Santana ranked 18th on the list. His upside is tremendous, but he has a long way to go.
So far we have
GCL: (1) – Ethan Stewart, LHP (16th)
NYPL: (2) – Maikel Franco, 3B (4th), Aaron Altherr, OF (20th)
SAL: (1) – Jesse Biddle, LHP (6th)
Around the System–Bullpen, Top Half
A look at the bullpen in the upper parts of the Phils system. The final “Around the System” which looks at the bullpen in the lower levels of the system should be out Friday.
Phillies Bullpen 2012: Brad Lidge has a $12.5 million club option that the Phils will decline; could possibly be back for less; Ryan Madson is a free agent and will get closers money; Jose Contreras is signed next season with a club option for 2013; Kyle Kendrick is ARB eligible again and will more than likely see a raise from his $2.45M in 2011 into the $4-5 million range; David Herndon, Antonio Bastardo and Mike STutes are all under contract for next season.
Lehigh Valley
Michael Schwimer, 25, Phils 14th round pick in 2008 draft; 47 games; 9-1 with a 1.85 ERA; 10 saves; 68IP 51H 22BB 86K; 4 HR allowed; 0.75 GO/AO; .203 opp avg; 1.07 WHIP; 2.9BB/11.4K; .307 vs. LH, .133 vs. RISP, .167 with RISP. Schwimer received plenty of honors at the AAA level in 2011, including being named the Lehigh Valley pitcher of the year and to Baseball America’s AAA All Star Team. He was exceptional for the ‘Pigs. His splits however are drastic and to have success in the bigs, he is gonna have to find a way to get lefties out. He has the intelligence and work ethic to figure it out. 2012: Battling with DeFratus and others for the last few bullpen spots in Philly. There should be at least one, possibly two openings. Continue reading Around the System–Bullpen, Top Half
BA Top 20: NYPL list includes Franco and Altherr
BA continues their list of league top 20s and today’s stop is the New York-Penn League, which includes 2 Phillies in 3B Maikel Franco (4th) and OF Aaron Altherr (20th) Franco’s power potential and defense are praised, and for Altherr its his projection and athleticism that are praised.
So far, the rundown for Phillies guys is
GCL: (1) – Ethan Stewart, LHP (16th)
NYPL: (2) – Maikel Franco, 3B (4th), Aaron Altherr, OF (20th)
The SAL is up next, and I expect we’ll see a few representatives here, led by Jesse Biddle.
Zagurski traded to Arizona
Just a quick note that LHP Mike Zagurski has been traded to Arizona for a player to be named later. After this season, Zagurski is out of options and eligible to become a free agent. Zagurski was very effective in Lehigh Valley, but struggled in his time with the big club.
